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Policy Notes for the Trump Notes Administration the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn55
TRANSITION 2017 POLICYPOLICY NOTES FOR THE TRUMP NOTES ADMINISTRATION THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN55 TUNISIAN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AARON Y. ZELIN Tunisia should really open its embassy in Raqqa, not Damascus. That’s where its people are. —ABU KHALED, AN ISLAMIC STATE SPY1 THE PAST FEW YEARS have seen rising interest in foreign fighting as a general phenomenon and in fighters joining jihadist groups in particular. Tunisians figure disproportionately among the foreign jihadist cohort, yet their ubiquity is somewhat confounding. Why Tunisians? This study aims to bring clarity to this question by examining Tunisia’s foreign fighter networks mobilized to Syria and Iraq since 2011, when insurgencies shook those two countries amid the broader Arab Spring uprisings. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 AARON Y. ZELIN Along with seeking to determine what motivated Evolution of Tunisian Participation these individuals, it endeavors to reconcile estimated in the Iraq Jihad numbers of Tunisians who actually traveled, who were killed in theater, and who returned home. The find- Although the involvement of Tunisians in foreign jihad ings are based on a wide range of sources in multiple campaigns predates the 2003 Iraq war, that conflict languages as well as data sets created by the author inspired a new generation of recruits whose effects since 2011. Another way of framing the discussion will lasted into the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution. center on Tunisians who participated in the jihad fol- These individuals fought in groups such as Abu Musab lowing the 2003 U.S. -
Volume XIII, Issue 21 October 30, 2015
VOLUME XIII, ISSUE 21 u OCTOBER 30, 2015 IN THIS ISSUE: BRIEFS ............................................................................................................................1 THE SWARM: TERRORIST INCIDENTS IN FRANCE By Timothy Holman .........................................................................................................3 CAUGHT BETWEEN RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES AND TURKEY, Cars continue to burn SYRIAN KURDS FACE DILEMMA after a suicide attack By Wladimir van Wilgenburg .........................................................................................5 by the Islamic State in Beirut. THE EVOLUTION OF SUNNI JIHADISM IN LEBANON SINCE 2011 By Patrick Hoover .............................................................................................................8 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. BANGLADESH ATTACKS SHOW INCREASING ISLAMIC STATE The Terrorism Monitor is INFLUENCE designed to be read by policy- makers and other specialists James Brandon yet be accessible to the general public. The opinions expressed within are solely those of the In the last six weeks, Bangladesh has been hit by a near-unprecedented series of Islamist authors and do not necessarily militant attacks targeting foreigners and local Shi’a Muslims. On September 28, an reflect those of The Jamestown Italian NGO worker, who was residing in the country, was shot and killed by attackers Foundation. on a moped as he was jogging near the diplomatic area of capital city Dhaka (Daily Star [Dhaka], September -
Assessing Lebanon's Political Paralysis
MENU Policy Analysis / Congressional Testimony Assessing Lebanon’s Political Paralysis, Economic Crisis, and Challenges for U.S. Policy by David Schenker Jul 29, 2021 Also published in House Foreign Affairs Committee ABOUT THE AUTHORS David Schenker David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. Articles & Testimony A former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs diagnoses the country's incapacitated institutions and prescribes remedies for its entrenched corruption and Iranian/Hezbollah domination. he following testimony was prepared for a hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the T Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism. The contours of Lebanon’s slow-motion economic collapse are by now well known. In the aftermath of the fifteen- year civil war, Lebanon borrowed huge amounts of money to rebuild, accumulating a mountain of debt that was funded by borrowing from local banks brimming with expatriate remittances. Even as the debt approached an unsustainable level of 150 percent of GDP, new money continued to flow into Lebanon, lured by obscene interest rates, particularly on Lebanese lira deposits—an expensive but effective tactic intended to encourage confidence in the shaky currency. Some early warning signs of impending trouble emerged following the outbreak of the 2011 Syrian civil war, yet the Ponzi scheme endured. Over time, however, the war took a toll on Lebanon’s already troubled economy, as exports decreased, a million refugees arrived, foreign remittances slowed, Gulf state funding dried up (as the Iranian-backed Shia militia Hezbollah increasingly dominated the state), and new funding became unattainable. -
Understanding the Rise of the Lebanese Hezbollah
A report on recent developments in the Middle East and the Muslim world nderstanding the Rise of the Lebanese UHezbollah The 1985–2000 South Lebanon Security Zone Conflict Introduction The fruit of foreign interference in Lebanon: Hezbollah emerges The “Party of God” navigates troubled domestic waters Hezbollah’s military performance in south Lebanon: Resilience and hybrid warfare Conclusion Jumada I - II, 1437 23 February - March, 2016 © KFCRIS, 2016 This edition of Masarat is the latest publication of the King Faisal Research Center's new initiative: The Middle East Strategy Project. The aim of this project is to conduct in-depth research and analysis that falls within the scope of regional grand strategy of security and defense. In light of the recent ISSN: 1658-6972 events in the Syrian Arab Republic, the study will focus on Issue No. 23 - 07/04/2016 examining the ongoing turmoil, study the resulting regional L.D. No: 1437/2868 repercussions unfolding across the Levant, and analyze the policy objectives of the local, sub-state, and international actors. February - March, 2016 - Jumada I - II, 1437 3 hile pundits attribute the Damascene Wregime’s resilience in the ongoing Syrian conflict largely to the Russian intervention since September 2015, the sudden emergence of the Lebanese Hezbollah on Syrian turf since 2013 has arguably proven to be no less valuable for Bashar al-Assad’s continuous grip on power. This report showcases, by virtue of a case study, a detailed account of Hezbollah’s internal adaptability in transforming from a loose Khomeinist guerilla movement in its early stages into a “state within a state” in Lebanon. -
The Port and Paris
Lebanese diaspora in France The Port and Paris Report | By Jonathan Dagher | 03.05.2021 Another protest in front of the Lebanese Embassy in Paris, foll owing the murder of Lokman Slim in February Photograph: Jonathan Dagher The 2019 protest movement and the Beirut port explosion galvanised political activism in the Lebanese diaspora. But the deepening crisis in Lebanon also puts them in a bind. The three women enter the Lebanese consulate in Paris swiftly, with apparent determination. They are followed by a fourth protester who films them, but their face masks shield their identities. One of them gets held back by a consulate employee who seemingly recognised the group’s intention. The other heads straight for the entrance hall where a portrait of Lebanese President Michel Aoun hangs in a fram e. In just seconds, she picks it off the wall and slams it to the floor. The frame shatters. The employees try to kick them out, “please, we will get penalized,” they can be heard saying on camera. But it’s too late, the shattered portrait is captured on film. After the affront at the consulate on September 11, 2020, the video made the rounds on social media in Lebanon. Six months after the event, people in Lebanon still recall that move as a brave and much needed message of solidarity from abroad. For many, it gave voice to the public anger bubbling in Beirut over a lack of accountability for the port’s explosion. Messages of admiration flooded the comment threads, but other users were outraged, decrying the move as vandalism, or even a crime. -
Security Council Distr.: General 9 March 2021
United Nations S/2021/240 Security Council Distr.: General 9 March 2021 Original: English Implementation of Security Council resolution 1701 (2006) during the period from 21 October 2020 to 19 February 2021 Report of the Secretary-General I. Introduction 1. The present report provides a comprehensive assessment of the implementation of Security Council resolution 1701 (2006) since my previous report, dated 12 November 2020 (S/2020/1110), including on the provisions of resolution 2539 (2020). Against a backdrop of increasing hardship in Lebanon, the area of operations of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) remained generally stable. Outstanding obligations remain for both parties under resolution 1701 (2006). There was no progress towards a permanent ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel. II. Implementation of resolution 1701 (2006) A. Situation in the area of operations of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon 2. On 14 November, UNIFIL observed 12 illumination rounds fired from south of the Blue Line close to Abbasiyah (Sector East). All 12 rounds landed south of the Blue Line. In this connection, the Israel Defense Forces informed UNIFIL that they had apprehended an individual who had crossed south of the Blue Line close to Ghajar (Sector East). UNIFIL has launched an investigation into the incident. On 17 November, UNIFIL observed 17 illumination rounds fired from south of the Blue Line close to Abbasiyah; 11 of the rounds landed north of the Blue Line. On this occasion, the Israel Defense Forces informed UNIFIL that they had apprehended two Israeli citizens in the area, who allegedly were involved in drug smuggling. -
Contextualizing Hezbollah's Operation in Arsal on the Lebanon-Syria Border
ontextualizing Hezbollah’s Operation in Arsal on the CLebanon-Syria Border Introduction A delicate timing: Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s visit to Washington, DC Mapping the tenuous Lebanese Armed Forces–Hezbollah relationship Redrawing the demographic equation in northeastern Lebanon Connecting the dots: Arsal, Qusayr, and al-Zabadani and the issue of strategic depth Conclusion Dhu Al-Qidah - Dhu Al-Hijjah 1438 32 August - September 2017 2 © KFCRIS, 2017 ISSN: 1658-6972 Issue No. 32 - 27/08/2017 L.D. No: 1438/2868 Dhu Al-Qidah - Dhu Al-Hijjah 1438 - August - September 2017 Dhu Al-Qidah - Dhu Al-Hijjah 1438 - August - September 2017 3 Dhu Al-Qidah - Dhu Al-Hijjah 1438 - August - September 2017 Dhu Al-Qidah - Dhu Al-Hijjah 1438 - August - September 2017 4 Introduction On July 21, 2017, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters certainly reverberated in Beirut. Hariri’s visit initiated an assault across the Qalamoun thus provides a glimpse into the prospects for Mountains near Arsal in northern Lebanon’s seemingly rockier American-Lebanese ties in the Baalbek-Hermel governorate. Soon joined by not-too-distant future, as Hezbollah’s political the Syrian air force, the offensive was aimed integration and military grip continue, at the at rooting out pockets of entrenched fighters expense of a weakened Lebanese Armed Forces affiliated with the former Syrian al-Qaeda branch, (LAF). Jabhat al-Nusra, which was relabeled in 2016 as Under the Barack Obama administration, the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS). LAF was among the top six foreign recipients Just one week after the onset of the operation, of American military aid. -
Defending Damascus, Betraying Beirut: Hezbollah's Communication
Defending Damascus, Betraying Beirut: Hezbollah’s Communication Strategies in the Syrian Civil War Research Thesis Presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for graduation with research distinction in International Studies in the undergraduate colleges of The Ohio State University by Maxwell Scurlock The Ohio State University April 2017 Project Advisor: Professor Jeffrey Lewis, International Studies Table of Contents Part 1 – Background Information and Historical Context Introduction – 1 1. Historical and Contextual Background – 6 a. Shi‘ism in Historical Context – 9 b. French Mandatory Period, 1920-1945 – 10 c. Independence to Black September, 1945-1970 – 14 d. The Early Years of the Lebanese Civil War and the Emergence of Hezbollah, 1970-1982 – 17 e. Hezbollah’s Formation – 21 f. Hezbollah’s Early Ideological Framework – 23 g. Syrian and Israeli Occupations of Lebanon, 1982-2005 – 24 h. Political Turmoil, 2006 Lebanon War, and 2008 Lebanese Political Crisis – 29 i. Hezbollah’s 2009 Manifesto – 31 j. The Syrian Civil War – 32 k. Sunni Islamists in Lebanon and Syria – 34 l. Lebanese Christians – 37 Part 2 – Analysis of Hezbollah’s Communications 2. Theoretical Approach to Hezbollah’s Communications – 40 3. Hezbollah in Syria – 44 a. Hezbollah’s Participation in Syria – April 30th, 2013 – 44 b. The Campaign for al-Qusayr, Part One – May 9th, 2013 – 48 c. The Campaign for al-Qusayr, Part Two – May 25th, 2013 – 50 4. Hezbollah’s Responses to Terrorism – 54 a. An Attack in al-Dahieh – August 16th, 2013 – 54 b. The Bombing of Iran’s Embassy – November 19th, 2013 – 56 5. Further Crises – 62 a. The Assassination of Hezbollah Commander Hassan al-Laqqis – December 3rd, 2013 – 62 b. -
Lebanon in the Syrian Quagmire
Lebanon in the Syrian Quagmire: Fault-Lines, Resilience and Possible Futures Ishac Diwan, Paris Sciences et Lettres Youssef Chaitani, UN ESCWA Working Paper for Discussion The purpose of this paper is to examine the weaknesses and strengths of Lebanon amidst the tensions created by the Syrian conflict that started in 2011. Lebanon’s sectarian governance system has been over 150 years in the making. But the Syrian fire next door, which has taken an increasing sectarian nature, is likely to burn for a long time. With such dire prospects, what is the fate of Lebanon’s governance system? Will it lead the country inexorably towards civil strife? The Lebanese governance system could be described as a horizontal deal among communal oligarchs, supported by vertical organizations within each community. While oligarchs have changed over time, the system itself survived devastating civil wars, endured extensive global and regional influences, and was also undeterred by the projection of power by many external forces, including the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Syria, Iran and Israel. What are the forces at work that make the Lebanese governance system both resilient and resistant to change? In the paper, we use as an analytical framework, which is introduced in section one, the model of limited orders developed by Douglas North and his associates. In section two, we argue that the Syrian civil war is likely to be long lasting. Section three examines the weaknesses and fault-lines of the Lebanese system in light of the Syrian war. Section four explores the factors that continue to contribute to the strength and resilience of Lebanon in spite of the rise in extremist Islamic militancy. -
Anti ISIS Coalition Begins to Lose Tribal
2 3 4 5 1 Deir ez-Zour 24 [“The conclusions of a meeting of the Aqidat tribe in rural eastern Deir ez-Zour”], Youtube, August 11, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss7cyjjNeks. ISW defines a tribal leader as one consistently referenced by clans within a tribe as the leading sheikh. Ibrahim and Musa’ab al Hifl have been repeatedly acknowledged by non-Hifl clans within the Aqidat as vocal leaders. 2 Jennifer Cafarella with Brandon Wallace and Jason Zhou, “ISIS’S Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency,” Institute for the Study of War, July 23rd, 2019. http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Report%20-%20ISIS%27s%20Second%20Comeback%20- %20June%202019.pdf. 3 [“The Founding of Deir ez-Zour’s Civil Council,”] Jorf News, September 26, 2018, https://jorfnews(.)com/?p=4086. 4 Barak Barfi, “Managing Washington's Flawed Partners in Eastern Syria,” The Washington Institute for Near East Peace, October 17, 2017, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/managing-washingtons-flawed-partners-in-eastern-syria. 5 Ibid. 6 Stavros Atlamazoglu, “Turkey Attacks Compound of Elite US-led Kurdish Counterterrorism Unit,” SOFREP, October 12th, 2019, https://sofrep.com/news/turkey-attacks-compound-of-elite-us-led-kurdish-counterterrorism-unit/. 7 “Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve I Quarterly Report to the United States Congress I July 1, 2019 - October 25, 2019,” Department of Defense Lead Inspector General Operation Inherent Resolve, October 25, 2019, https://media.defense.gov/2019/Nov/21/2002214786/-1/-1/1/Q4FY2019_LEADIG_OIR_REPORT_.PDF. 8 Jennifer Cafarella with Brandon Wallace and Jason Zhou, “ISIS’S Second Comeback: Assessing the Next ISIS Insurgency,” Institute for the Study of War, July 23rd, 2019, 6 http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Report%20-%20ISIS%27s%20Second%20Comeback%20- %20June%202019.pdf. -
The Global Jihad-Affiliated Abdullah Azzam Brigades Claimed Responsibility for Firing Rockets from South Lebanon Into the Western Galilee on August 22
August 25, 2013 The global jihad-affiliated Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility for firing rockets from south Lebanon into the western Galilee on August 22. The attack was meant to challenge Hezbollah, part of the leaking of the confrontation leaking between the Sunni jihadists and Shi'ite Hezbollah from Syria into Lebanon. The Twitter account of the Salafist Lebanese sheikh Siraj al-Din Zariqat, a senior figure in the Abdullah Azzam Brigades in Lebanon. He reported that the Ziyad al-Jarrah Companies of the Abdullah Azzam Brigades were behind the rocket fire attacking the western Galilee (Twitter account of sheikh Zariqat, August 22, 2013) Overview 1. On August 22, 2013, two barrages of two rockets each were fired into the western Galilee. Two landed in Israeli population centers, one in an open area and one was intercepted by the Iron Dome aerial defense system. There were no casualties but property damage was reported. It was the first incidence of rocket fire from south Lebanon in two years. 13-136 2 2. Responsibility for the attacks was attributed by sheikh Zariqat to the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, a global jihad organization with ties to Al-Qaeda, which has a branch in Lebanon (See Appendix A for information about the organization and its Lebanese branch). However, the Lebanese government condemned the rocket fire and the Lebanese foreign minister claimed that those who carried out were trying to drag Lebanon into a confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah did not issue a formal comment. 3. Since the Second Lebanon War there have been eight instances of rocket fire targeting Israel, most of them directed against communities in the western and eastern Galilee. -
The Specter of Sunni Military Mobilization in Lebanon
The Specter of Sunni Military Mobilization in Lebanon Patricio Asfura-Heim • Chris Steinitz with contributions by Ghassan Schbley Cleared for public release DOP-2013-U-006349-Final November 2013 Strategic Studies is a division of CNA. This directorate conducts analyses of security policy, regional analyses, studies of political-military issues, and strategy and force assessments. CNA Strategic Studies is part of the glob- al community of strategic studies institutes and in fact collaborates with many of them. On the ground experience is a hallmark of our regional work. Our specialists combine in-country experience, language skills, and the use of local primary-source data to produce empirically based work. All of our analysts have advanced degrees, and virtually all have lived and worked abroad. Similarly, our strategists and military/naval operations experts have either active duty experience or have served as field analysts with operating Navy and Marine Corps commands. They are skilled at anticipating the “prob- lem after next” as well as determining measures of effectiveness to assess ongoing initiatives. A particular strength is bringing empirical methods to the evaluation of peace-time engagement and shaping activities. The Strategic Studies Division’s charter is global. In particular, our analysts have proven expertise in the follow- ing areas: The full range of Asian security issues The full range of Middle East related security issues, especially Iran and the Arabian Gulf Maritime strategy Insurgency and stabilization Future national security environment and forces European security issues, especially the Mediterranean littoral West Africa, especially the Gulf of Guinea Latin America The world’s most important navies Deterrence, arms control, missile defense and WMD proliferation The Strategic Studies Division is led by Dr.