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Cheetah Mobile Friday, September 26, 2014 China Merchants Securities (HK) Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research Cheetah Mobile (CMCM US) Jeff HAO 852-31896117 The rising international mobile internet platform [email protected] ■ Leading mobile internet company in global scale in terms of MAU ■ Deep and fast expanding knowledge and exposure overseas WHAT’S NEW Initiation ■ High visibility and huge upside for mobile monetization Large mobile user base with deep overseas exposure We believe Cheetah Mobile (CM) to be among the first China Internet BUY companies that benefiting from overseas expansion. As at 2Q2014, CM Previous N/A achieved 284mn mobile MAU. We expect the mobile MAU to reach 380mn and 479mn in 4Q2014 and 2015 respectively. There are only five Price US$20.71 internet companies globally that have more mobile MAU than CM: 12-month Target Price US$36.70 ( 77.2%) Facebook, Whatsapp, Baidu, Wechat and Skype. For overseas market, (Potential upside) CM is one of the few successful China Internet companies in overseas Previous N/A market, with 67% (190mn) of mobile MAU from overseas. Significant mobile monetization opportunity Price Performance In spite of the large mobile user base, mobile revenue only represented (%) 1.5 CMCM Nasdaq100 20% of total revenue in 2Q2014. We expect mobile revenue to contribute more than 50% of total revenue in 2015. CM has found a proven mobile 1 monetization model. On the one hand, CM has proved its distribution capability based on its mobile app matrix strategy; CM is also proactively 0.5 building big data analysis capability based on large user behaviour data 0 base to achieve efficient targeted marketing. We therefore believe CM has a high visibility of mobile monetization outlook. -0.5 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 Catalysts and Risks Source: bigdata Catalysts: 1) more successful mobile monetization; 2) faster mobile user % 1m 6m 12m base growth. Risks: 1) competition leads to delay in monetization; 2) CMCM US (15.1) 13.8 - policy and different user behaviour risk in overseas market. Nasdaq 100 1.1 6.6 - Valuation Industry Internet We initiate CM with BUY and PEG based TP of US$36.7. Our TP is S&P 500 1980 based on 123% 2014-2016E Non-GAAP EPADS CAGR and 0.37x PEG. Nasdaq100 4030 Our target PEG has 54% discount to peers average of 0.8x PEG. CM is Key Data trading at 0.21x PEG. Our 2014-2016 EPADS estimates are higher than 52-week range (US$) 12.50-30.77 consensus 1%, 4% and 5% respectively due to optimistic mobile Market cap (US$ mn) 3,390.19 monetization outlook. Our TP implies 44x 2015E and 18x 2016 E PE. Avg. daily volume(000’) 973 BVPS (RMB) 0.52 Financials Shareholdings Structure RMB mn 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E GIC Private Limited 12.66% TCH Copper Limited 8.22% Revenue 288 750 1,653 3,418 6,220 T Rowe Price Associates 5.45% Growth (%) 106% 160% 120% 107% 82% OZ Management LP 4.90% 29 90 218 714 1,704 Non GAAP Net profit No. of shares outstanding (mn) 173.71 N/A 209% 142% 227% 138% Growth (%) Free float 10% Non-GAAPEPADS (RMB) 0.09 0.54 1.56 4.93 11.59 Related Research DPADS (RMB) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P/E (x) 1,576.4 275.4 95.1 30.1 12.8 P/B (x) 96.9 28.3 25.5 14.1 6.7 ROE (%) 18% 15% 27% 47% 53% Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 1 2014 年 9 月 26 日(星期五) 公司报告 招商证券（香港）有限公司 猎豹移动(CMCM US) 郝云帆 852-31896117 风口上的紫牛 [email protected] ■ 风口：工具+移动+海外市场 最新变动 首次覆盖 ■ 紫牛：敏锐的产品嗅觉+优秀的用户体验 ■ 风口+紫牛=世界级移动互联网平台公司和巨大的移动端货币化空间 买入 庞大的移动用户基数及深厚的海外市场背景 凭借庞大的用户基数和深厚的国际化背景，我们相信猎豹移动将是最先受 前次评级 N/A 益于国际化红利的中国互联网公司之一。截止2Q2014猎豹移动拥有2.84亿 股价 US$20.71 移动MAU，我们预计4Q2014将达到3.8亿，2015年将达到4.79亿。根据我们 12个月目标价 的统计，截止2Q2014全球范围内移动端MAU超过猎豹移动的公司只有5家： US$36.70 ( 77.2%) Facebook, Whatsapp, Baidu，Wechat 以及Skype. 从海外市场的角度来 (上涨空间) 看，猎豹移动67%（1.9亿）的移动MAU来自海外，是目前在海外移动市场最 前次目标价： N/A 成功的中国互联网公司。 股价表现 巨大的移动货币化空间 (%) 尽管猎豹移动已经拥有庞大的用户群，但是截止2Q2014，猎豹移动来自移 1.5 CMCM Nasdaq100 动端的收入仅占总收入的20%。我们预计2015年移动端收入占收比将超过 50%。猎豹移动已经找到了“三级火箭”货币化模式。而猎豹移动的主要货 1 币化手段将是游戏和广告。猎豹移动一方面已经通过应用矩阵策略证明了 0.5 其强大的分发能力；另一方面，猎豹移动也在迅速建立基于海量用户行为 的大数据分析能力，以确保准确及无干扰的推送。在具备了分发和精准推 0 送能力的前提下，我们相信猎豹移动手机端货币化前景的可见度已经很 -0.5 高，并且潜力巨大。 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 催化剂及风险 资料来源：贝格数据 催化剂：1）移动端货币化超预期 2）移动端用户数增长超预期。风险： % 1m 6m 12m CMCM US (15.1) 13.8 - 1）竞争导致用户增长及货币化进程放缓 2）海外政策及用户行为风险 Nasdaq 100 1.1 6.6 - 估值 行业：互联网 我们首次给予猎豹移动买入评级，目标价US$36.7。我们的目标价是基于 标普500指数 1980 123% 2014-2016年EPADS CAGR以及0.37x PEG。我们相信0.37xPEG是合理 纳斯达克100指数 4030 重要数据 的，因为0.37xPEG比中国互联网平台公司2015年平均0.8x PEG具有54%的折 52周股价区间（美元） 12.50-30.77 扣。猎豹移动目前股价相当于0.21x PEG。我们2014-2016年EPADS预测分别 市值(百万美元) 3,390.19 比市场高1%，4%及5%，主要因为我们对猎豹移动端货币化乐观的展望。我 日均成交量（万股） 97.3 们的目标价相当于44x 2015E及18x2016E PE。 每股净资产（人民币） 0.52 主要股东 盈利预测及估值 GIC Private Limited 12.66% TCH Copper Limited 8.22% 人民币百万元 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E T Rowe Price Associates 5.45% 营业额 288 750 1,653 3,418 6,220 OZ Management LP 4.90% 同比增长(%) 106% 160% 120% 107% 82% 总股数 （百万股） 173.71 Non-GAAP 净利润 29 90 218 714 1,704 自由流通量 10% 同比增长(%) N/A 209% 142% 227% 138% 相关报告 Non-GAAP 每股盈利(元) 0.09 0.54 1.56 4.93 11.59 每股股息(元) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 市盈率(X） 1,576.4 275.4 95.1 30.1 12.8 市净率(X) 96.9 28.3 25.5 14.1 6.7 ROE(%) 18% 15% 27% 47% 53% 资料来源：公司资料,招商证券（香港）预测 彭博终端报告下载: CMHK <GO> 2 Friday, September 26, 2014 Investment thesis Leading global mobile applications developer CM is a leading China and global developer of mobile applications. According to App Annie, CM remained in the top ten rankings of Google Play non-gaming application downloads for seven consecutive months in 2014, during which it was ranked no.2 in July. As of 2Q2014, CM’s MAU of all its mobile applications reached 284mn. By applying the mobile app matrix strategy, CM deployed a series of mobile applications targeting mobile phone optimization, management and security, including Clean Master, CM Security, Battery Doctor and Photo Grid. Apart from its self- developed applications, CM is still actively acquiring third-party applications in line with its strategic direction of development. Great beneficiary of internationalization Since the Android application market in China is relatively closed and with keen competition, the overseas market has become more and more important for the Chinese developers. However, owing to the diverse promotion channels as well as language and cultural differences of the overseas market, it has not been smooth sailing for the Chinese developers and Internet companies to develop in the overseas market. In view of CM’s extensive user base overseas, we believe CM will become one of the greatest beneficiaries of Chinese mobile applications going abroad. CM is one of the few Chinese mobile Internet companies specializing in the overseas market. CM started developing in the overseas market in 2012, and was one of the earliest Chinese Internet companies deploying in the overseas mobile Internet market. CM was the top company in the rankings of Google Play Chinese mobile application developers. Clean Master has been operating in the overseas market ever since it became online officially in 2012, but was only formally launched in China market in 4Q2013. As of 2Q2014, CM has 67% of mobile MAU from overseas. Huge potential of monetization We expect CM’s mobile MAU to reach 380mn and 479mn in 4Q2014 and 2015 respectively. Based on the massive user base and rich portfolio of mobile applications, we are upbeat towards the monetization potential of CM. The monetization model of CM’s “three-level rocket” has begun to take shape. Clean Master and CM Security have basically completed the initial accumulation. CM will launch more mobile applications and services with strong attributes of monetization to strengthen the capability of monetization in the future. We expect to see more significant results of monetization from 3Q. The monetization model of CM mainly relies on mobile games and mobile advertising. As for mobile games, acting as an agent to distribute the domestic games overseas and sharing the revenue will be the main income source of mobile games. As for advertising, it will be primarily through the promotions by applications to derive advertising income in the near term. In the long run, monetization methods including searching and e-commerce will be explored. Valuation We adopted the PEG valuation method for CM as we reckoned this would be more suitable for the high-growth Internet companies like CM. We initiate CM with BUY and PEG based TP of US$36.7. Our TP is based on 123% 2014-2016E CAGR and 0.37x PEG. We believe 0.37x PEG is reasonable, as it has 54% discount to peers average of 0.8x PEG in 2015, mainly reflecting that: 1) CM differentiates from comparable companies no matter in business scale or business maturity; 2) CM’s monetization uncertainty in the overseas mobile market. Our TP implies 44x 2015E and 18x 2016E PE. To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Friday, September 26, 2014 Focus charts Figure 1：Revenue distribution and growth (RMB000’) Figure 2：Revenue % of PC and Mobile Internet security servises and others IVAS Mobile PC Online marketing services Total revenue growth 7,000,000 180% 100% 90% 160% 6,000,000 80% 140% 5,000,000 70% 120% 60% 4,000,000 100% 50% 3,000,000 80% 40% 30% 60% 2,000,000 20% 40% 10% 1,000,000 20% 0% 0 0% 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Figure 3：Mobile MAU (mn) Figure 4：Global popular mobile apps MAU (mn) 1200 700 1000 600 800 500 600 400 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3E 2014Q4E 2015E 2016E Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Figure 5：CM’s global download rankings July 2014 Figure 6：Peers valuation comparison PE PEG Name Mkt Cap (US$m) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E TENCENT 147,627 37.1 28.1 1 0.8 QIHOO 360 10,148 33.5 20.4 1 0.6 BAIDU 77,373 35.4 25.3 1.5 1.1 YY 5,088 34 23.8 0.3 0.2 CTRIP 8,495 62.9 38.8 2.1 1.3 Average 40.6 27.3 1.2 0.8 CHEETAH MOBILE 3,344 84.6 28.8 0.63 0.21 Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Source: Company data, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 4 Friday, September 26, 2014 Mobile business Leading global mobile applications developer CM is a leading China and global developer of mobile applications.
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