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Center for International Exchange Vol. 2 No. 4 | August 2007

Japan’s Policy Agenda for

Hitoshi Tanaka, Senior Fellow, JCIE

Japanese foreign policy faces a crucial test in the to be similar at first glance, global perceptions of the coming years as the international system comes to be potential impact of each ’s rise vary. ’s increasingly defined by multipolarity and multilater- pursuit of a benign—yet increasingly assertive—for- alism. The poster child for the emergence of this new eign policy, which has been characterized by double- global order is none other than East Asia itself, where digit and nontransparent annual increases in its rapid economic growth, a gradual redistribution of defense expenditures, is coupled with elements of power, and the increasingly important role of mul- rising nationalistic tendencies, thus giving rise to tilateral cooperation and regional institutions are concern in some circles about the uncertainty of its dramatically transforming the . Despite hav- future course. ing proceeded relatively smoothly to this point, this On the other hand, while also seeks a more metamorphosis continues to lack a clear long-term assertive role in international affairs commensurate vision to guide policy. What follows is a series of pol- with its growing economic strength, Japan and other icy proposals through which to ensure the long-term nations tend to see India as a collaborative partner. peace, stability, and prosperity of East Asia. There are three main reasons that this perception differs from that toward China: India’s status as The Evolving Shape of East Asia an established ; its as one of the It goes without saying that one of the most impor- founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement tant developments in Asia in recent years has been during the Cold ; and its strengthening ties with the incredible economic growth throughout the re- the West, as clearly demonstrated in its improving gion, manifest most clearly in the rise of both China relationship with the United States. and India. While such economic expansion has no A few hundred kilometers west of lies doubt had a number of positive effects on the region, North , a country with a population just one- it also brings with it a fair share of challenges. sixtieth the size of China or India. Nevertheless, it Although the global ramifications of the eco- is one of the most important factors affecting the nomic growth of both China and India may seem future peace and stability of the region. Although there are signs that an end to its nuclear weapons supplement that loss and make sure that Japan’s best program may be possible in the near future, it is days are ahead of and not behind it. an unfortunate reality that the challenges on the Korean do not stop with the shutdown Official Development Assistance of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. Even if all of the Throughout the postwar era, official development goals delineated in the Six-Party Joint Statement of assistance (ODA) has been one of Japan’s most im- February 13, 2007, are achieved successfully, contin- portant diplomatic tools in East Asia. Henceforth, ued economic and energy assistance, as well as the Japan would be well served to expand its ODA pro- eventual reunification of the peninsula, guarantee gram and improve its standing in the region. The that will remain an important issue for unfortunate reality, however, is that current policy years to come. seems to be headed in an entirely different direction. No commentary on the region would be com- In spite of the various pledges made in recent years plete without mention of ASEAN and the challenges by Japanese leaders to significantly expand Japan’s continues to face. While annual GDP ODA program, the ODA budget continues to shrink, growth rates in the have averaged a very having fallen by 40 percent over the past decade. respectable 5 percent in recent years, ASEAN coun- The top ODA donor nation throughout most of the tries continue to struggle for better governance, as , Japan now ranks third after the United States corruption, environmental degradation, and an ex- and Britain, and if budget cuts continue, it will soon panding gap between the rich and poor remain seri- find itself out of the top five. ous issues—not only in their own right but also as These recent cutbacks are largely the result of substantial threats to sustainable development. government efforts to address Japan’s massive public debt. While such a policy makes sense from a budget Japan’s Vision for East Asia perspective, it comes in the context of leaders call- There is no doubt that Japan’s policy toward East Asia ing for Japan to adopt a more “normal” and assertive is inextriciably linked to its role outside the region. role in global affairs. If leaders truly wish for Japan However, despite political rhetoric to the contrary, to be considered a regional leader, then its East Asia the reality is that Japan’s influence within the inter- policy needs to place greater emphasis on develop- national community is in relative decline. The rise ing its soft-power resources. ODA is arguably the of China and India point to a day in the near future most important of these diplomatic tools. when Japan will no longer enjoy status as the ’s second largest economy. Nevertheless, this develop- Article 9 ment need not be seen in zero-sum terms; rather, it The time has come for Japan to update its interpre- provides an opportunity for Japan to reinvent itself tation of Article 9 of the constitution to more ac- as a global and regional leader in areas outside the curately reflect global realities. Although all nations economic sphere. are afforded the right to collective self-defense under Japan is one of a select group of with the international law, the Japanese government’s current capacity to have an impact on events far beyond its interpretation of Article 9 forbids Japan from exer- borders. When one takes recent structural changes cising this right. Consider the following cases, all of in the international system into account, it becomes which are unconstitutional under the government’s clear that the only way for Japan to increase this in- current interpretation of Article 9: 1) The Japanese fluence is to reinforce its role as a global democratic Self-Defense Forces (SDF) cannot use force to repel power. To this end, Japan must strengthen its policy an attack on a US warship on the high seas, even if an tools and reinvigorate its policy toward the region. SDF vessel is in the immediate vicinity. 2) Japan can- While Japan’s relative economic strength may be on not shoot down a missile launched by a hostile nation the decline, enhanced diplomacy and can unless Japan itself is under direct attack. (In other

EAST ASIA INSIGHTS  Vol. 2 No. 4 | August 2007 words, Japan can do nothing even if it knows that do little more than upset regional development and the missile is headed for the United States.) 3) SDF stability. Japan and others must instead encourage officers participating in UN peacekeeping operations ­China to become a responsible player—i.e., to enjoy (PKO) cannot return fire against hostile targets that the benefits of inclusion in, while faithfully observ- have fired on friendly PKO personnel from other ing the norms of, the international system. Japan’s nations, even if they are in the immediate vicinity. basic policy toward China should be oriented toward 4) Even if not actually engaged in hostilities, the SDF two primary goals: hedging against uncertainties re- is not allowed to provide logistical support to US lating to China’s future course while simultaneously military forces or forces operating under a directive engaging China in “inclusive multilateralism.” from the UN Security Council unless such support The first layer of this policy calls for a strengthen- occurs in a clearly designated “noncombat area.” ing of strategic ties among the region’s four largest The scenarios described above make it clear that democratic states (Japan, India, , and the a reinterpretation of Article 9 is a prerequisite for United States) as well as an increased emphasis on Japan to be able to make a sincere contribution to US bilateral security alliances and security partner- international peace and stability. ships in the region. Since such a policy, if pursued in isolation, risks either ostracizing or antagonizing The Japan-America Security Alliance China, the most sensible way forward must instead The Japan-America Security Alliance, along with have as its primary focus inclusive multilateralism. America’s other security partnerships in the region, This second layer calls on Japan to actively engage will continue to serve as a guarantor of regional sta- China in regional and global rules-based communi- bility for the foreseeable future. Despite the dramat- ties, bringing it into multilateral dialogue on every- ic global transformation manifest in the post–Cold thing from macroeconomic policy to talks on ener- War world, these traditional “hard” security alliances gy and the environment. The most effective way to continue to play a role as a hedge against unpredict- achieve this goal is to increase support for regional able future threats. States throughout the region, community-building processes already underway. even China, have acknowledged the contribution that the US military presence in East Asia makes to North Korea regional stability. The ultimate goal in the Six-Party Talks is a compre- Japan’s relationship with the United States should hensive solution to the North Korean nuclear issue continue to function as the foundation of its diplo- that not only guarantees that the North Korean re- macy. Nevertheless, the scope of the alliance must gime disbands its nuclear program but also ensures be redefined to make regional and global challenges that thoroughly transforms its policies a core aspect of the bilateral relationship. As East and begins to actively engage the international com- Asia enters into a critical transition period in the munity. Such a solution will undoubtedly mandate ­community-building process, it is incumbent upon that the other five parties be willing to learn from these two democratic powers to expand cooperation past mistakes and at all times present a united front. and dialogue on how best to realize the emergence If they are able to do this, North Korea will be left with of a stable regional order. It is Japan’s responsibility no choice but to make a strategic decision and fully to make every effort to ensure that the United States ­honor its commitments to the February agreement. remains actively involved in the region. Japan’s decision to opt out of the initial oil ship- ment to North Korea and demand a resolution to the China abductees issue as a prerequisite for more active par- China’s economic rise and increasing influence in ticipation in the negotiations invited a great deal of global affairs is more or less a historic inevitabil- criticism from overseas, with some individuals going ity, and efforts to contain China at this stage would so far as to suggest that Japan has isolated itself from

EAST ASIA INSIGHTS  Vol. 2 No. 4 | August 2007 the four other nations. Japan’s apparent “hard line” and economic systems, , , and eth- demands a brief explanation. nicities and lacks the history and common values of There are two primary reasons for Japan’s basic a like . However, such a mindset stance. First, the past two decades of negotiations fails to realize that it is not the formal creation of with Pyongyang have made it abundantly clear that a particular institution but the process of commu- the North Korean nuclear issue can only be perma- nity building itself that is the main goal of region- nently settled through a comprehensive solution. alism. An emphasis on action-oriented regionalism, In this context, the Japanese government is merely through which actors are bound together by rules insisting that the abductees issue be treated as one and operations, rather than (necessarily) values, re- aspect of this agreement. Second, the six parties ligion, or political systems, will go far in pushing the made clear in the February agreement that any com- process forward. prehensive solution to the North Korean nuclear is- Other critics express concern that an EAC would sue has as one of its core elements progress in nor- merely be a façade for China’s pursuit of regional malization talks between Japan and North Korea. . However, these critics fail to realize three The abduction of Japanese citizens is an affront to key points. First, while China’s leaders indeed seek Japan’s national sovereignty and the government has greater influence on regional affairs, “greater influ- an obligation to guarantee the safety and wellbeing ence” may be relative rather than absolute. Second, of its people. Normalization talks will proceed once as mentioned above, the fundamental aim of com- the North Korean regime shows a sincere commit- munity building is not the creation of the institu- ment to resolving this issue. tion itself but the process. That process would en- gage China at every step along the way, consolidate East Asia Community trust and confidence among regional states, and The continued expansion and deepening of multi- make clear to China the immense benefits of mul- lateral dialogue throughout East Asia in recent years tilateralism. Third, in light of the issues that need to reveals a growing desire among states to consoli- be addressed in the region, such as energy efficiency date regionalism and move further along the path and the environment, capacity building, and public ­toward the establishment of an East Asia Commu- health, it is clear that the country with the greatest nity (EAC). Not only would the spread of a supra- resources, and therefore most qualified to lead com- national “East Asian” identity be a means to move munity building, is in fact Japan, not China. beyond the confrontational, nationalistic sentiment One final point is the fact that the continued pres- that has been on the rise in recent years, but further ence of the United States is of integral importance community building could reduce economic dis- for the lasting peace, stability, and economic devel- parities and create a more stable and secure region. opment of the region. Japan must campaign more Despite the enormous potential benefits of regional- actively for the United States to stay involved in the ism, however, there continues to be insufficient dia- region and to more clearly articulate an American logue in Japan about its merits outside of the eco- vision for Asia’s future. nomic sphere. While the proliferation of economic and financial ties no doubt plays a fundamental role A Rules-Based Regional Economic System in the community-building process, policymakers Community building in East Asia will undoubtedly must realize that “regionalism” is much more than begin with intraregional economic and financial co- just economic interdependence, and Japan has an operation. This economic community must go be- obligation to adopt a more active role. yond the scope of the WTO and address not merely Some critics argue that a European-style region- trade in goods and services but also investment, al superstructure in East Asia is an unrealistic goal standards, and the movement of people. A regional given that East Asia has a diverse array of political (ASEAN+6) economic partnership agreement

EAST ASIA INSIGHTS  Vol. 2 No. 4 | August 2007 would go far toward achieving these goals and lay- action on issues of common concern—would also ing the groundwork for the future establishment of function as an effective confidence-building mea- a broader Asia Pacific/APEC free trade zone. This sure, setting the stage for still deeper community community should be linked to global institutions building in the future. The membership of an East such as the WTO and observe the rules and obliga- Asia Security Forum would consist of a small core tions of the global system. The same holds true for of nations, such as ASEAN+6 and the United States. the establishment of a regional monetary fund. The forum would have as its mandate a proactive East Asia may be well known for its near double- and operational approach to handling regional se- digit GDP growth rates in recent years, but what is curity, cooperatively addressing threats in a manner often overlooked is the appalling degree of disparity similar to the American-led Proliferation Security between rich and poor within the region. The aver- Initiative. age per capita GDP in Singapore remains more than In addition to the valuable role that the ARF con- 50 times that of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, tinues to play as a forum for ministerial dialogue on three countries whose people live on an average in- security issues, the Six-Party Talks format has also come of only US$1.11 per day. In order to alleviate emerged as an important framework for multilateral these economic disparities and create more balanced cooperation on threats to regional stability. Despite growth in the region, Japan must place greater em- its originally ad-hoc nature, this novel subregional phasis on human development and support for eco- forum should continue to function as a confidence- nomic and institutional capacity building. Targeted building measure even after final resolution of the ODA investments to develop physical infrastructure North Korean nuclear issue. in Southeast Asia will be an integral aspect of this policy. Following the success of its programs in Viet- Conclusion nam and Laos, the government should also expand Given the increasing importance of the region to its intellectual ODA program. global stability, policymakers must continue to keep a close eye on the changes taking place in East Asia. East Asia Security Forum As the most powerful democracy in the region, Japan One of the most pressing areas demanding ex- must not only clarify its long-term vision for the re- panded regional cooperation is security. East Asia gion but also develop a clear policy through which is in need of a new regional body capable of taking to achieve its goals and make an active contribu- proactive steps on security issues such as human tion to the long-term peace, stability, and prosper- and drug trafficking, infectious disease, resource ity of East Asia. There has been no other time when scarcity, maritime , and WMD proliferation, Japan’s policy toward East Asia has been of greater all of which continue to pose a threat to regional importance. stability. The creation of a multilateral institution to tackle such nontraditional and transnational security is- Hitoshi Tanaka was Deputy Minister for Foreign Af- sues would foster a more secure environment for fairs of Japan until August 2005. He is currently a Se- continued economic expansion and—through joint nior Fellow at JCIE. East Asia Insights East Asia Insights is an occasional newsletter focusing on East Asia community building from the Japanese perspective. Published by: Tadashi Yamamoto, President, JCIE Please direct any comments or questions to [email protected].

Japan Center for International Exchange Japan Center for International Exchange, Inc. (JCIE/USA) www.jcie.or.jp www.jcie.org EAST ASIA INSIGHTS  Vol. 2 No. 4 | August 2007 © 2007 Japan Center for International Exchange