ANNUAL REPORT 2012
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Annual Report 2012
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About the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), a Recognized Independent Centre of the University of Oxford, was founded in 1982 as a centre for advanced research into the social science aspects of energy. A non-pro t making charity, it is distinguished from similar institutions elsewhere in the world in two important ways.
First, the Institute is committed to achieving the highest academic standards. The University of Oxford and three of its colleges – St Antony’s, St Catherine’s, and Nuf eld – are Members of the Institute and occupy seats on the Board of Governors. Second, the Institute is committed to the idea of cooperation between scholars representing different sides of the international energy debate. Members of the Institute represent both the oil-producing and oil-consuming nations. This international character is also re ected in the composition of the research team. Such cooperation is intended to lead to more informed assumptions concerning the behaviour, motivations, and objectives of the various agents operating in the international energy scene.
This combination of academic excellence with attention to pressing real-life problems in the energy world provides a unique forum in which study and discussion can take place. Research carried out at the Institute is designed to encompass the following disciplines:
• the economics of petroleum, gas, coal, nuclear power, solar, and other forms of renewable energy;
• the politics and sociology of energy;
• the international relations of oil- and gas-producing and consuming nations;
• the economic development of oil- and gas-producing countries and the energy problems of other developing countries; and
• the economics and politics of the environment in its relationship with energy.
As a general policy the OIES concentrates on research into energy issues of international signi cance or which have implications for the interface of producers and consumers.
57 Woodstock Road Oxford OX2 6FA United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1865 311377 Fax: +44 (0)1865 310527 E-mail: [email protected] www: www.oxfordenergy.org
Registered Charity No. 286084 Recognized Independent Centre of the University of Oxford
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Contents
4 Director’s Report
9 Research
29 Journals and Website
30 Lectures and Seminars
32 Library
33 Research Team and Staff
41 Visiting Research Fellows, Research Advisers, Contributing Authors, and Students
51 Accounts
54 Members
55 Governors and Trustees
56 Contributors
61 Recent Publications
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Director’s Report The year 2012 was, in many ways, engaging in Outright Monetary extraordinary. Global growth, which Transactions in the secondary bond had slowed disappointingly in market (announced at the beginning 2011 after the bounce back in 2010, of August) resulted in a marked slowed further in 2012. This below diminution of interest rate spreads par performance was accompanied between periphery and core countries. by increasing fears of a ‘double dip’ Though the situation in the Euro area recession, especially in developed remained dire – aggregate growth for countries. Notably, however, China and the year as a whole was minus 0.6 per India also slowed down, in 2012, to 7.8 cent, with further recession projected per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively. for 2013 – the perceived risk of break- The previous picture of rapid growth up essentially disappeared. A further in emerging market economies worry developed in the second half balancing slow growth and continuing of 2012 over the ‘ scal cliff’ in the high unemployment in the developed USA which, if unresolved, could have world was increasingly questioned led automatically to a sharp scal – giving way to more generalized contraction of about 5 per cent of US worries about the world economy. GDP. Though ‘taken to the wire’, most Broadly speaking, a resumption of of the problem was resolved – though something like trend growth was still some scal tightening remained for anticipated in the medium term, but 2013, due to automatic expenditure the point at which that was expected reductions – known as ‘sequestration’. to happen was being pushed further Finally, towards the end of the year and further into the future. Moreover, and at the beginning of 2013, the US the risks, mostly on the downside, data seemed to suggest that the US appeared to be rising sharply. economy was poised for recovery, despite the drag from sequestration. Some of the forces bearing on the world economy during 2012, as well as Looking forward to 2013 and beyond, on the international oil market, were global prospects appeared somewhat geopolitical, notably the aftermath more ‘balanced’; in the negative sense, of the Arab Spring (especially the this was because risks to emerging worsening con ict in Syria) and the market countries looked somewhat escalating sanctions on Iran (the Brent greater, while in the positive sense, oil price peaked at $127 in March 2012 risks to developed country growth largely re ecting worries over Iran). (especially from a Euro area break-up) The other big sources of concern were had diminished. Moreover, in the USA, the developing crisis in the Euro area – and in a number of other industrialized which appeared to be going from bad countries such as the UK, there to worse – and worries over possible appeared to be upside possibilities slow-downs, or even hard landings, as the recovery strengthened in some of the emerging markets – and con dence improved. especially China, India, and Brazil. By the middle of the year, it is fair to say Against this volatile background, that prospects for the world economy developments in international oil and appeared to be dominated by hard- gas markets were very different. In the to-quantify downside risks, especially case of oil, the price for Brent crude those surrounding the possible break- remained ‘range bound’ continuing the up of the euro area, with multiple, pattern of the previous year. Oil prices disorderly exits. This all changed in averaged about $111 for 2012 as a the second half of the year, which was whole. As documented in many of the characterized by a marked reduction of Institute’s research outputs, much of perceived risks. Most importantly, the this stability re ected opposing forces. change in policy by the ECB towards For example, geopolitical worries
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(demonstrated by the situation in time staff are concerned, there has been Iran), were balanced by the mounting no turnover at all. The total size of the crisis in the Euro area. Likewise, the Institute – always dif cult to gauge due rapid build up of shale oil production to part-timers and distance working in the USA tended to be matched by – remains around 46 research fellows declines elsewhere. Nevertheless, (including visiting research fellows). both the level of oil prices and their During the year, two research fellows, relative stability in 2012 (and into Anupama Sen and Katja Ya mava, 2013) remain quite dif cult to explain, were promoted to senior research though the behaviour of major oil positions re ecting their increasing producers, such as Saudi Arabia – role in the Institute’s research and and the signals given to the market other activities. The Institute continued – are certainly part of the picture. its policy of encouraging visiting researchers from a wide range of For natural gas, the issues were very countries and backgrounds. There different. The sluggish growth in the were seven visiting researchers in this world economy had the predictable category during 2012. A new scheme, effect on demand, especially in made possible by the generosity of Europe. This, combined with the Saudi Aramco, of awarding three continuing build-up of shale gas short-term Fellowships (maximum production in the USA (freeing up six months) to promising researchers potential supplies, such as LNG, at the start of their careers, was set up for the European market), although to start in 2013. It is hoped that this partially balanced by increased LNG will be a continuing programme. demand from Japan following the Fukushima disaster in the previous The Institute is still small in relation to year, led to excess supply in Europe. the increasingly wide range of issues This, in turn, put intense pressure on (and academic disciplines) involved. the gas pricing system in Europe, with It would not be possible to cover increased gas-to-gas competition via the ground that we do without the the developing European hubs. By network of Members, Benefactors, and the beginning of 2013, with pressure friends and associates who, together, on European energy utilities and on make the Institute what it is. We are the Russian supplier, Gazprom, the extremely grateful for continuing old system of pricing natural gas via support from all over the world. oil-linked contracts was, essentially, breaking down – an outcome The Institute needs to expand its predicted in a series of working research capabilities. Priorities papers published by the Institute’s for recruitment include further Natural Gas Programme going back appointments relating to oil and the over several years. An important economics and geopolitics of the strand of research is whether similar Middle East. An expansion of research developments should be anticipated capability in this core area is a long- elsewhere – especially in Asia. standing objective which has proved dif cult to achieve due to the scarcity Both these broad developments of suitable people. The Institute’s illustrate the increasing importance rising reputation should help to make of the global focus of the Institute’s recruitment easier in the future. It research as well as its interdisciplinary is already apparent that more and nature, combining economic, more researchers are keen to work on political, and policy analysis. particular projects – such as working Both oil and international gas papers – and/or to cooperate with the markets are increasingly global. Institute on joint research endeavours.
Sta ng and priorities The Institute has relatively long- During 2012, there has been very little standing programmes relating to China turnover of research staff. As far as full- and to India. Both have been limited by
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a mixture of internal research capacity agreed that a key rst step would be to and funding. We are very grateful to recruit one or more young researchers. the Al Njoo Foundation which agreed in 2012 to sponsor OIES’s work on A committee to consider ‘succession China with suf cient resources and planning’ for the appointment of a commitment to seek to appoint a new Director – to ensure a smooth Mandarin speaking researcher at post- transition when the time came – had doctoral or equivalent level. It was been set up in the previous year. At agreed that such a researcher should the Board meeting in November 2012 be appointed as soon as possible this became a ‘search committee’ in 2013, subject to potential delays and it was decided to advertise for in the process, due to the need to the role. It was recognized that the advertise widely, as well as possible process might take some time. visa issues. It was also agreed in late 2012 that OIES would mount Relations with the University a workshop in Beijing, jointly with As noted in previous Reports, formal Renmin University, on the general and informal relationships with the subject of the implications of US University are extremely important to energy developments and policy on the Institute. The formal relationship the global economy and on China. as a Recognized Independent Centre This, highly successful, workshop (RIC) continues to work well, though took place in late March, 2013. We are the fact that the RICs are independent very grateful to the FCO’s Prosperity charities, as well as being associated Fund (via the British Embassy in with the University, inevitably raises Beijing) for partial funding for this tensions. Oversight by the University’s initiative. The year 2012 also saw Joint Committee for the Coordination important developments in the India of Independent Research Centres programme. OIES was approached obviously involves making sure that by the umbrella organization for the the protocols of the RIC agreement Indian oil and gas industry to help are being adhered to – including the in setting up an Institute in Delhi, to requirements that research should be modelled on OIES. This ambitious meet the general standards of the project, however, ran aground in the University and that it should be summer of 2012, although it was still ‘complementary’ to the wider activities live and it was hoped that it would be of the University. In common with restarted in 2013. Other international the other RICS, OIES is keen that developments include a (joint) study the two-way relationships of mutual on the integration of renewable energy bene t should be emphasized. OIES is (wind power) in Columbia (again unique in that it relates most obviously with FCO funding) and the start of to the Social Science Division of the an OIES programme on Africa. University (as well as, increasingly, to Natural, Physical, and Life Sciences). A project to integrate and systematize It is also true that the governance OIES research on the power sector structure of OIES includes a relatively (including climate change aspects) was large ‘Oxford’ component, including put forward by David Robinson, and the heads of three Colleges (Nuf eld, discussed in the Academic Committee. St. Antony’s, and St. Catherine’s) as It is widely recognized that many well as three representatives appointed different strands of OIES energy by Council. The articles specify that research increasingly come together in the ‘Oxford’ representation amongst the power sector and that the future its Governing Board should exceed 25 is likely to be increasingly ‘electric’. per cent and be less than 50 per cent. There are various models of how this might work and how it might be OIES has been working closely funded – including, as one possibility, with Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn a structure akin to the way the Natural Smith, the University’s Director Gas programme works. It is widely for Energy Research, and others to
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improve the links between those, into Korean. This book is based on Dr across the University, engaged in Paik’s unrivalled knowledge arising Energy Research, and to improve the from 25 years specializing on this visibility of energy research in Oxford. subject and is essentially unique. The Planning for a ‘UK Energy Day’ to third book, The Pricing of Internationally discuss and debate UK energy policy Traded Gas, edited by Jonathan Stern, (directed, inter alia, towards Oxford is a multi-authored project, and is Alumni involved in the energy sector) the rst of its kind in its eld. Its was initiated in November, with full launch in London, in late 2012, was participation of OIES. (The Energy Day, kindly hosted by BP. This book too which was extremely well attended, is being translated into Chinese. nally took place in the Zoology Lecture Hall in May 2013). OIES is also The Institute’s policy is to give free represented on a steering committee, access to all its research publications also set up by Chris Llewellyn Smith, and commentary via its website (with to coordinate and expand energy the exception of published books and research across the University. monographs). Twenty-four Working Papers, on a very wide range of Activities, research and subjects, were published during 2012. dissemination in 2012 Shorter Energy Comments, many of The wide range of OIES’s research them on current policy issues, are is detailed in this Report. As in the widely read. The Institute’s quarterly previous year, three books were newsletter, the Oxford Energy Forum, published for the Institute by Oxford is now free to download (hard copy University Press in 2012. The rst, is still available). The Energy Forum is Natural Gas in India: Liberalisation and edited by Bassam Fattouh, who is to be Policy, by Anil K Jain (a Visiting Senior congratulated on its success. Typically, Research Fellow) was launched in each issue is devoted to a ‘theme’. Delhi at a very well attended reception, Themes covered in 2012 were: Oil Price co-hosted by OIES and the Indian Benchmarks, Energy Subsidies, Natural Council for World Affairs (ICWA), by Gas Demand and Supply, and Africa’s Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the Deputy Energy Outlook. The research content Chairman of the Planning Commission. of the Institute’s website is increasing This book, which provides a timely and rapidly, as is its use by people engaged candid assessment of policy towards in the energy industries and in policy natural gas in India, has been very well making bodies all over the world. received and has contributed greatly to the visibility of OIES’s research There has been an expansion in the and reputation in India. Keun-Wook number of Institute events. The annual Paik’s book, Sino-Russian Oil and Gas ‘gas day’, held in November 2012, was Cooperation – the Reality and Implications, as successful as ever, and was lled to explores the many aspects of the new capacity. There were two ‘oil events’ in Sino-Russian relationship connected 2012 with invited participation (held with the countries’ oil and gas sectors. under the Chatham House Rule). The Its launch in London, generously rst, in January 2012, focused on ‘The sponsored by Statoil, took place at the Outlook for Brazilian Oil’. Roughly Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) half the participants were from the on 15 November. The book has been Brazilian energy sector, with others translated into Chinese – the Chinese coming from the international oil version was launched in Beijing industry as well as regulatory and early in 2013. Other ‘launches’ of the nancial institutions. This successful English version include presentations event was kindly sponsored by the in Tokyo (at the Institute for Energy Energy Intelligence Group. The second, Economics, Japan (IEEJ)) and in Seoul sponsored by Saudi Aramco and held (at the Korean Institute for Energy in November, was on the theme of ‘The Economics (KIEE)). The book is also Changing North American Energy being translated into Japanese and Scene and its Impact on Traditional
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Suppliers and their Export Markets’. A further ‘oil event’ is planned for early 2013 on the subject of ‘US Shale Oil and the Implications for Pricing Benchmarks’. The Institute’s annual ‘Brainstorming’ meeting took place in Seville in May. We are very grateful to Cheniere for generous sponsorship support for this event.
The Institute continues its programme of internal seminars – which are now advertised throughout the University. The lecture series, held jointly with St Antony’s College, continues to attract distinguished speakers and large audiences.
General As a research institute, OIES continues to depend on the dedication of all involved. As shown in this Report, the research productivity of OIES is extraordinary, and its reputation and in uence continue to increase. The relaxed but productive research atmosphere, one of the main characteristics of OIES, owes a huge amount to the administrative staff: Kate Teasdale, Susan Millar, Margaret Ko, Lavinia Brandon, and Jo Ilott. The interactive and networking aspects of OIES continue to bene t greatly from the close historical and current relationships with its two sister institutions: the Oxford Energy Policy Club (which meets twice annually in St Antony’s College) and the Oxford Energy Seminar (held annually at St Catherine’s College).
As noted, OIES is a relatively small institute with a high and growing reputation. It is enormously dependent on its benefactors and friends throughout the world. The OIES model is working well. It is more and more apparent, however, that it needs to grow in order to cope with increasingly complex energy issues in an increasingly complex world.
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interfered with the workings of the Research oil market. We nd no support for the view that greater nancialization Assessing the Financialization has had an important effect on oil Hypothesis market variables and harmed nal consumers. In contrast, shifts in In this paper, Bassam Fattouh and expectations of supply and demand Lavan Mahadeva assess whether can have important impacts on prices, nancialization can impact oil spreads, welfare, and even on nancial market behaviour over and above market participation. Therefore, structural fundamental changes, before oil nancial market policies and whether these changes affect are contemplated, it is crucial in the nal consumers’ welfare. While rst instance to identify the channels shifts arising in nancial investors’ through which nancialization preferences and wealth can explain can result in market failure. the rise in participation of purely nancial investors, they fail to explain The Role of Speculation in key features such as the movements Oil Markets: What Have in the basis. Instead, anticipated changes in the physical layer of the We Learned So Far? oil market can better explain many of the features often attributed to A popular view is that the surge in the nancialization. We also nd that price of oil during 2003–8 cannot be greater nancialization has no harmful explained by economic fundamentals, effects on consumer welfare. Our but was caused by the increased paper shows that from a regulatory nancialization of oil futures markets, point of view, it is crucial in the rst which in turn allowed speculation to instance to identify the channels become a major determinant of the through which nancialization can spot price of oil. This interpretation has result in market failure and then been driving policy efforts to regulate design policies accordingly. oil futures markets. This survey, by Bassam Fattouh, Lavan Mahadeva, Financialization in Oil Markets and Lutz Kilian, reviews the evidence – lessons for policy supporting this view. They identify six strands in the literature corresponding In the last decade, purely nancial to different empirical methodologies players with no interest in the physical and discuss to what extent each commodity such as hedge funds, approach sheds light on the role pension funds, insurance companies, of speculation. Their main nding and retail investors have become suggests that the existing evidence more prominent in oil futures and is not supportive of an important derivatives markets. In parallel, there role for speculation in driving the has been an explosion in the variety of spot price of oil after 2003. However, instruments that permit speculation there is evidence that both oil futures in oil. These movements in nancial prices and spot prices were driven by participation bear some rough relation the same economic fundamentals. to the oil price. Some have been led to conclude that greater nancial OPEC: What Di erence participation has changed oil price Has It Made? behaviour. There have even been calls for policy intervention to limit nancial The main purpose of this research, by participation in oil per se. In this Bassam Fattouh and Lavan Mahadeva, comment, Bassam Fattouh and Lavan is to review the evolution of OPEC Mahadeva discuss recent research models and to link this evolution to on whether underlying changes in some key events in the oil market. the incentives and constraints of Our main conclusion is that OPEC’s purely nancial players could have pricing power varies over time. There
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are many instances in which OPEC and does not accurately re ect the can lose the power to limit oil price process of crude oil price formation movements – either up or down. in the case of Dubai. A version of this Such changes in pricing power are commentary was reprinted in Energy brought about by market conditions & Geopolitical Risk 3:4 (April 2012). and can occur both in weak and tight market conditions. Because of Brent Prices: Impact OPEC’s varying conduct, there is no of PRA Methodology single model that ts its behaviour and hence analysts have been forced on Price Formation to choose from a wide range of models to explain certain episodes. Oil prices are largely formed at the The empirical literature has not been junction of the nancial sphere and the successful in distinguishing between physical sphere. This is particularly the various competing models, as these true for the main markers, such as models offer very similar predictions. Brent prices. The term ‘Brent prices’ Forthcoming in Volume 5 of the Annual may refer to several type of contracts Review of Resource Economics (2013). traded by physical and nancial participants. The main contracts The Dubai Benchmark and interacting in the Brent sphere are ICE its Role in the International Brent futures contracts, Dtd. Brent, Forward Brent, and Brent CFDs. In Oil Pricing System this article, Christophe Barret looks at the interaction between these Despite the existence of other regional contracts, resulting in part from the crudes with a much larger physical price assessment methodology of Price base, more than 25 years have passed, Reporting Agencies (PRAs). He comes and most cargoes from the Gulf to the conclusion that changes in PRAs’ destined for Asia are still priced methodology in the past ten years, rst against Dubai. Nevertheless, the aimed at avoiding price manipulation, nature of the Dubai benchmark has can guarantee an anchor to the evolved and many of the institutional physical market for oil prices today. and pricing details have witnessed major transformations, driven in Optimal scal policy in the large part by the decline in Dubai’s face of oil windfalls and oil production and innovations in the pricing mechanisms introduced other known unknowns in the 2000s. Bassam Fattouh, in this paper, traces the Dubai Benchmark, When a country discovers new oil its historical evolution, and the way reserves, there are only estimates in which it functions today. In theory of how much revenue this will (and in practice to some extent), the generate and how costly it will be price of Dubai may be identi ed to extract. Even if holdings of other from the nancial layers that have assets can act as a buffer against this emerged around Dubai and Brent. The unpredictability, the returns to those Brent complex sets the price level for buffers can themselves be expected to Dubai while the EFS and the inter- be uncertain. How should scal policy month Dubai spread market set the be aligned to take best advantage price differentials against Brent. Since of the windfall in the face of these physical benchmarks constitute the known unknowns? In this paper, pricing basis of the large majority of Lavan Mahadeva derives the policy physical transactions, some observers implications of joint uncertainty in oil claim that derivatives instruments – revenue windfalls and capital markets, such as futures and swaps – derive gauging the effects on a calibrated their value from the price of these model of Colombia. He compares physical benchmarks. However, the welfare consequences of revenue this is a gross over-simpli cation volatility, volatile capital markets,
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procyclicality in capital markets, and Fiscal Policy and Natural political impatience. The paper was Resource Entitlements: Who written after a suggestion from the Ministry of Finance in Colombia. Bene ts from Mexican Oil?
Why Can Natural In this paper, Paul Segal suggests Resource Abundance Make a new approach to analysing the distribution of natural resource Things Worse? – Limited revenues and applies it to the case of Financial Development Mexico. He de nes a natural resource or Political Impatience? entitlement as a citizen’s per capita share of their country’s natural Is the failure of natural resource resource rents. The main nding is abundance to achieve improved that, according to of cial estimates, economic outcomes due to limited Mexican scal policy transfers oil nancial development or to scal entitlements from the bottom 90 per policy short termism? Lavan cent of the population to the top Mahadeva answers this question in a 10 per cent of the population. This precautionary savings model where implies that, although scal policy is both resource revenues and asset progressive relative to market income, returns are uncertain. Calibrating it is regressive once oil entitlements for Colombia, he nds that under are taken into account. The author policy impatience, welfare costs are considers a scal reform that would large, net assets are insuf cient, and ensure that every citizen received discretionary expenditures are too their oil entitlement, and in doing so sensitive to resource revenues. If would eliminate extreme poverty. nancial markets are underdeveloped, welfare costs of the same magnitude Energy Subsidies in can be generated, but nancial the Arab World underdevelopment cannot also explain why there are insuf cient net The policy of maintaining tight effective assets, nor the heightened control of domestic energy prices sensitivity to revenues and is not the has characterized the political and main reason why natural resource economic environment in most Arab abundance can make things worse. countries, together with many other parts of the world, for decades. How to Spend It: Resource The objectives behind such a policy Wealth and the Distribution cover: overall welfare objectives, such as expanding energy access and of Resource Rents protecting poor households’ incomes; economic development objectives, Natural resource revenues differ from such as fostering industrial growth other government revenues both in and smoothing domestic consumption; their time pro le, and in their political and political considerations, including and legal status: they are volatile the distribution of oil and natural and exhaustible, and belong to all gas rents in resource-rich countries. citizens of the country in which they While energy subsidies may be seen are located. This paper, by Paul Segal, as achieving some of a country’s discusses the theory of natural resource objectives, this paper argues that revenues and examines expenditure they are a costly and inef cient practices in a range of resource- way of doing so. Energy subsidies rich countries. It considers both the distort price signals, with serious distributional impact and the ef ciency implications on ef ciency and the of expenditure policies, focusing on optimal allocation of resources. Energy the extent to which they succeed in subsidies also tend to be regressive, providing all citizens with their share with high-income households and of the bene ts due to natural resources.
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industries bene ting proportionately at current rates of production. Its the most from low energy prices. energy wealth has bene ted the Arab world, despite signi cant differences However, despite such adverse in national resources, and in their effects, energy subsidies constitute management, across the region. an important social safety net for the poor in many parts of the Arab Signi cant challenges also world, and any attempts to reduce derive from the Arab energy-led or eliminate them in the absence of development model, particularly compensatory programmes would lead the region’s patterns of domestic to a decline in households’ welfare and energy consumption, rising demand erode the competitiveness of certain for energy, and rising domestic industries. Therefore, a critical factor investment needs. This paper attempts for successful reforms will be the to provide a very brief overview of ability of governments to compensate the role energy has played in driving their populations for the reduction or economic development in the Arab removal of subsidies through carefully world, its effects on development designed mitigation measures that choices, and the challenges faced by protect the poorest and assist the the resultant development model. It economy in its long-term adaptation. does so by looking at four different aspects of energy-led development: 1) This research, by Bassam Fattouh and the effect of energy on regional Arab Laura El-Katiri, argues that a reform economic growth; 2) the inter-linkages of energy pricing mechanisms in the between energy and Arab economic Arab world may be seen as bene cial structures; 3) the implications of from more than one perspective, energy for intra-regional integration; and as offering potential paths for and 4) evolving challenges from reform. Nevertheless, the authors this development model. recognize that the current political climate in the region will render the This research, by Bassam Fattouh reform of domestic energy prices and Laura El-Katiri, was published dif cult in practice, such that reform in December 2012 as a UNDP Arab may indeed be a medium- to long- Human Development Research Paper. term endeavour. The research was prepared for the UNDP as part of its On Oil Embargos Arab World Development Report research and the Myth of the paper series. A shorter version under the title ‘Energy Subsidies in the Iranian Oil Weapon Middle East and North Africa’ is due to be published in Energy Strategy The exchange of threats between Reviews, forthcoming in 2013. Iran and the West vis-à-vis Iranian oil exports to European and other Energy and Arab consumer countries has received wide Economic Development attention among policy makers and analysts. IMF of cials predict that Like no other region, energy resources crude oil prices could increase by as have shaped the Arab world and its much as 30 per cent in case of a halt modern-day development trajectory. of Iran’s exports to OECD countries, Endowed with some of the world’s if other sources don’t offset the loss most important oil and natural of Iranian crude oil. Others claim gas reserves, countries in the Arab that all the elements are set for ‘the world have, over the past four $200 a barrel scenario’. However, this decades, produced and exported commentary offers a less pessimistic more oil than those of any other view, and argues that the potential region, and hold reserves suf cient impacts of such threats on oil market to supply world energy markets for dynamics are often exaggerated. Oil more than another hundred years embargos against individual producing
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countries are, in reality, dif cult to nuclear power raises a number of implement, for they require a concerted economic, political, and security effort by a large number of buyers to question in the fragile Gulf region. prevent oil producers from diverting This energy comment, by Laura El- crude oil from one market to another. Katiri, explores the reasons for the Where they result in a tightening GCC’s pursuit of nuclear power, of oil markets and rising prices for and questions the economic and consumer nations, they can be relaxed political rationale behind the move. or amended. As for the use of an Iranian oil weapon, the fact remains The Impact of Russia’s that despite continuous threats, Iran Re nery Upgrade Plans on has never used the oil weapon; the oil weapon remains an indiscriminate Global Fuel Oil Markets policy measure that all producers, including Iran, are reluctant to use; While higher fuel speci cations and and if ever employed, it is likely to regulatory changes in the bunkers be ineffective and counterproductive market are most likely to have a from a producer’s point of view. big impact on long-term fuel oil Nevertheless, fears that governments demand, a structural shift of a similar may pursue policies to restrict the ow magnitude on the supply side is of energy supplies rattle markets and already taking place, particularly in place a premium on the oil price and Russia, the largest exporter of fuel contribute to increased price volatility. oil. The Russian government’s rmly This energy comment, by Laura El- stated commitment to the regeneration Katiri and Bassam Fattouh, was also of its country’s re ning industry, reprinted in Energy & Geopolitical and its determination to ensure that Risk 3:2 (February 2012), 10–16. domestic demand for higher quality products is met, would suggest that The GCC and the a sharp decline in fuel oil exports by Nuclear Question 2016 seems inevitable. In this working paper James Henderson and Bassam For a long time, nuclear energy Fattouh show that in the past, price appeared to be an unlikely scenario relationships between high-sulphur for the Gulf Cooperation Council and low-sulphur fuel oil, and between (GCC) states. However, the late 2000s heavy fuel oil and crude oil and have seen a policy U-turn in the diesel, have been subject to structural GCC’s attitude toward nuclear power, breaks, but price movement did not with the United Arab Emirates and increase or decrease without bounds, Saudi Arabia now pursuing plans as the re ning industry continued for their own nuclear reactors by the to adjust to increasing demand for 2020s. The introduction of civilian petroleum products and changing nuclear programmes to the GCC is global demand patterns towards symptomatic of a more structural cleaner products. Looking ahead, as shift in the way the GCC and the investment in upgrading of re ning wider Gulf produces and consumes units accelerates in Russia, price energy. Rapidly rising levels of spreads are likely to exhibit similar domestic energy consumption have behaviour to that in the past few years. already made the GCC a regional energy consumer rivalling the Rosneft – On the Road combined energy demand of Latin to Global NOC Status? America. This renders alternative sources of energy, including nuclear Having re-established itself over power, an increasingly attractive the past ve years as a global-scale long-term solution in view of the oil company, Rosneft now faces a region’s otherwise rapidly rising drag number of signi cant challenges. In on its own main export products – common with many NOCs, its global crude oil and natural gas. However, signi cance is based entirely on its
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domestic asset base, and despite the Joint Ventures in the Russian size of Russia’s resources Rosneft O shore – Positive News does face the problem that its existing assets in the core areas of West Siberia but only for the Long Term and European Russia are going into gradual decline. This decline can be In this energy comment, James offset by the development of new Henderson explores the potential areas such as East Siberia, the Arctic, behind recent joint ventures in and offshore elds, but these regions the Russian offshore. In the post- are remote and their exploitation Soviet era, joint ventures between will require advanced and expensive foreign and domestic companies new technology. In parallel with this in the Russian oil and gas sector issue, Rosneft is also facing pressure have been relatively rare, mainly from its majority owner, the Russian because domestic companies have government, to act as a catalyst for been reluctant to accept potential establishing a greater role for Russia competitors into their asset base. in the global economy, using its However, the increasing maturity of energy resources as an important tool. Russia’s onshore elds, especially those The company is therefore looking in West Siberia, and the potential for to increase the diversity of its asset the country’s production to go into base by investing overseas at a time sharp decline over the next decade, when the competition for global oil has prompted the Russian government reserves is high and Rosneft itself to promote offshore development as has limited experience of dealing a potential solution. President Putin in the international asset market. has encouraged his state oil company to seek international partnership to In this paper, James Henderson bring in the requisite technical and explores how Rosneft may be management expertise, as well as the attempting to meet these twin much-needed capital to fund what challenges, using the example of peer will be very expensive projects. He has NOCs that have experienced similar also ensured that the government will problems. Petrobras and Statoil are now provide a more benign tax regime both partially privatized, upstream that would enhance the commercial focused NOCs who have established returns on any new eld developments international businesses both as a way and bring Russia more into line with of supplementing and diversifying its international peer countries. The their domestic resource bases and also immediate consequence of this activity as a means of acquiring and exploiting has been the formation of three joint technological and operating experience venture partnerships – between that could be applied across their asset Rosneft and Exxon, ENI, and Statoil portfolios. Both companies also have respectively – with the IOCs nally a much longer history as corporate seizing the chance to exploit their entities than Rosneft, and gained competitive advantages in a region listings on an international stock with huge resource potential. However, exchange (in New York) in 2000/1, despite the undoubted bene ts which ve to six years before Rosneft’s own these new partnerships can bring for all privatization. As a result, they can parties in terms of technical knowledge provide a clear analogy for the strategy exchange, reciprocal asset deals, and tactics that Rosneft may use in diversi cation of risk, and potential the development of its own business upside from exploration success, it model, and indeed it appears that in would appear doubtful whether the 2011 Russia’s NOC is already taking a results of their activity can be anything similar path to its ‘Partial NOC’ peers. other than a long-term solution to Russia’s production issues. With a rst exploration well not due before 2014, and with any further exploration and appraisal work set to take place
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during the period to 2020 and beyond, experienced considerable constraints it seems almost inconceivable that on their business activities within a the rst signi cant oil production semi-disintegrated Russian state. The could occur before 2025/6 at the second theme examines the economic earliest, with 2030 a more likely date. and political strategies deployed by these companies to achieve corporate Protection against Default consolidation over Russia’s oil sector in Long Term Petroleum in the late 1990s to early 2000s. During this period, oligarchs succeeded Joint Ventures not only in undermining the grip of regional governors on the domestic Sharing costs and risks are the basic oil industry, but also in emerging as foundation of any joint venture. a new political threat to the Kremlin. However, the required nancial The third theme, then, focuses on the commitments might be jeopardized Kremlin’s re-assertion of state control either by a co-venturer who cannot over the national oil sector, and the afford the payment of the related costs declining political power of governors or a co-venturer who simply chooses and oligarchs in Russia in the 2000s. not to pay its share. The petroleum Finally, the book reveals how the industry tends to rely on the forfeiture Kremlin elite, resource-rich regions, of interests as a threat to deter such and oil companies view the future behaviour, but as a remedy this is often of the domestic oil industry and its uncertain in terms of its enforceability role in the modernization of Russia. and it could operate to the bene t of the defaulting party. In this paper, Sino-Russian Oil and Eduardo Pereira considers options such Gas Cooperation as collateral support provision, secured interests, and cross-default options China and Russia are giant countries structured over wider asset interests. whose recent economic and energy experience could hardly be more The Battle for Russian different: in the one, unprecedentedly Oil: Corporations, rapid industrialization has sent its share of world primary energy Regions and the State consumption soaring from 7 to 20 per cent since 1985 (overtaking the USA); This book, by Shamil Midkhatovich in the other the collapse of centrally Yenikeyeff, to be published by the planned industry has reduced its share Oxford University Press in 2012, deals from 11 to 6 per cent during the same with the politics of the Russian oil period. China has tried to exploit its industry from 1991 to the present day. modest energy endowments sparingly, Within this twenty year period, erce while forging a world-wide supply battles emerged over who controls structure that prevents it from being Russia’s oil industry: the Kremlin, deprived of the imports its economy Russian regional governors, or the needs. Russia meanwhile has become a oligarchs? These clashes determined major oil and gas exporter, possessing the course of development for more than 20 per cent of the world’s Russia’s oil sector, and have shaped gas reserves, part of which it is eager the evolution of Russia’s political to sell to China. Inevitably, therefore, system, from the collapse of the energy is at the centre of relations Soviet Union to the present day. between these two countries. Keun- Wook Paik’s book, Sino-Russian Oil The book explores four themes: and Gas Coooperation – The Reality and The rst theme presents a story of Implications was published by Oxford the expanded in uence of regional University Press in October 2012. governors over Russia’s internal politics and economy in the 1990s. As a result, edging domestic oil companies
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An Evaluation of the Fiscal revision in the overall estimate of Terms for Hydrocarbons recoverable reserves. Although it is reasonable to partly attribute this Exploration and situation to geology, and partly to Production in India exogenous factors, this paper argues that the format and implementation This ongoing project by Anupama Sen of the auctions have not always led evaluates the scal terms of the regime to ‘ef cient’ outcomes. This research for exploration and production of applies an econometric modelling hydrocarbons in India under the ‘New framework to a dataset of variables, Exploration Licensing Policy’ covering collected during eldwork in India, the period 1999–2010. It reviews representing eight rounds of auctions theoretical and conceptual issues in the for oil and gas exploration licences, design of scal regimes for exploration covering the period 1999–2010, to (such as contract theory, and the explore patterns and trends in the issue of ‘what to tax’). The research values of the winning (high) bids. The summarizes and highlights the main paper uses a speci cation that has issues and concerns under the current been successfully applied in existing scal regime, which has been in place empirical literature to analyse lease since 1999. It then sets up a simple auction market performance in other model to demonstrate the equivalency world regions, for example to the US of outcomes under different scal Outer Continental Shelf. The basic systems (including Production Sharing conceptual framework underlying Contracts and Concessions) using the the analysis speci es that the value of scal terms of the Indian regime. The the high or winning bid is a function analysis highlights the main issues of three sets of factors: economics, faced under the Indian scal regime, structure, and conduct. In addition based on past experience and policy to factors such as the international implementation (for instance, problems price of crude oil, the analysis aims to with contract enforcement, the holdup explore the responsiveness of winning problem, and pricing), and varies the bids to factors such as: the degree of parameters of the model in an attempt competition amongst bidders (size of to explore how, in retrospect, these bidding rms; single or multiple bids issues could have been addressed for a licence); the perceived quality of through the scal terms of the regime. the block (location and prospectivity); and the bidding methods used (solo An Empirical Analysis of or joint bidding). The results of the Auctions for Oil and Gas analysis are expected to provide insights into policy options, given Exploration Leases in India the objectives of Indian policymakers to engender energy security. This This ongoing research, by Anupama paper, to be completed in 2013, aims Sen, is a comprehensive analysis of the to ll a gap in existing empirical system of rst price sealed bid auctions literature, speci cally on India. used for exploration licences in India’s oil and gas sector, which is arguably Natural Gas in India: one of the most transparent exercises Liberalisation and Policy in resource allocation in the country. Despite this, after a period equivalent A classic dilemma in an economy in to three exploration cycles, only one transition from planning and price large discovery of gas has been made, control to freer markets is how to despite the large number of contracts gain greater exibility and ef ciency (nearly 300) signed and investment without sacri cing social objectives. committed. In 2011 and 2012, the Anil Jain, an experienced policy maker, production of hydrocarbons under meticulously analyses how, in today’s the existing scal regime dropped rapidly developing Indian economy, drastically, and there was a downward this problem has been a central one
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for the small but important and the next 15 years, showing how these rapidly growing natural gas industry. could create fundamentally different In the past, gas, a major input for the outcomes for European supply, fertilisers needed by poor farmers, has demand, and pricing. This highlights been heavily subsidised. Now, as prices the relative parochialism of much are being set loose, the search is on for European gas commentary which, other, perhaps more targeted, forms over the past decade, has concentrated of subsidisation. Jain assesses whether on security issues relatively narrowly future policies in the gas industry de ned as dependence on Russian can achieve the twin objectives gas supplies. The study also examines of ef ciency and equity in a more the impact on Russian gas supply complex economic setting in which, and pricing to Europe of different on paper at least, the government scenario outcomes in North America has less power to intervene. The and Asia, showing that Gazprom may resolution of such questions in this and also have to make uncomfortable other industries may be an important choices between volume and pricing of political determinant of the ability of European exports over the next decade. the economy to continue its present growth path. Anil Jain’s research The innovative aspect of the research was published as a book Natural Gas is that it shows, in a globalising in India: Liberalisation and Policy by gas market, that Europeans need Oxford University Press in 2012. to pay as much attention to what is happening in gas markets elsewhere The Impact of a Globalising in the world as they do to their own Market on Future European regional supply, demand, and pricing dynamics. This working paper Gas Supply and Pricing: The was published in January 2012. Importance of Asian Demand and North American Supply Natural Gas Price Volatility in the UK and North America The shale revolution in North America, the economic recession in Lacking a commonly understood Europe, the Arab Spring, and the de nition, volatility is an often over- Fukushima nuclear incident in Japan generalized term with different provide examples of events which meanings to different constituencies. have had impacts on gas supply, This should not, however, detract demand, and pricing far beyond their from its importance. To traders, immediate geographical regions. volatility is a source of revenue, While this clearly demonstrates while to energy-intensive industrial an increasing ‘connectedness’, the end-users it is often perceived as a current stage of development of threat. Midstream utilities actively the international gas trade cannot work to manage volatility in order be compared with the global oil to deliver a ‘dampened’ price market. This said, the increasing offer to end-user customers. ‘globalisation’ of gas – the fact that European gas stakeholders need to In this working paper Sofya Alterman pay increasing attention to what is summarizes the insights from an happening in both North America analysis of natural gas, crude oil, and Asia – marks a new phase in the and oil products price time series development of natural gas, which our to answer the questions ‘are natural research needs to take into account. gas prices inherently more volatile than those of oil ?’ and the more Howard Roger’s study uses the model challenging question ‘can episodes of and methodology developed in his markedly different gas price volatility previous studies to analyse different be explained by underlying market scenarios of North American gas fundamentals?’. Sofya’s research production and Asian demand over involved a painstaking analysis of
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14 years-worth of daily price data, Evolution and Functioning of the along with the investigation of the Traded Gas Market in Britain’ likely drivers of the volatility patterns which described the genesis and uncovered. Her results both con rm development of Britain’s traded the relevance of obvious drivers but gas market. In Continental Europe also show how these can be blunted both the drivers for change and the or offset by other compensating challenges to be overcome have been effects, some of which are less widely markedly different. Nevertheless, acknowledged. This research is the combination of the EU policy particularly timely as trading hub commitment to encourage competition, development continues apace in the catalyst of the economic recession Continental Europe. This working in creating a preference for hub-based paper was published in February 2012. price formation mechanisms, and the sea-change in the acceptance of Will There be a Shale Gas trading by key market players have Revolution in China by 2020? all contributed to an astonishing development in European gas This paper, by Fan Gao, assesses the hubs over the past few years. extent to which China is likely to achieve levels of shale gas production Based on extensive research and by 2020, which would make a discussion with the key actors meaningful difference to its growing intimately involved, the paper provides need for imports of pipeline gas and deep insights into the characteristics LNG. The study suggests that, given of the individual hubs, the reasons the rather disappointing progress behind their particular evolutionary on Coal Bed Methane production path, and the prospects for their since exploration and development further development. The paper work started some 25 years ago, a provides a comprehensive and timely cautionary approach is needed when review of gas market developments anticipating the outlook for shale against the backdrop of the ongoing gas for the remainder of this decade. transition from long-term oil-indexed The speci c challenges include water contracts to hub-based contracts. This availability and population density working paper, by Patrick Heather, demographics, as well as the need to was published in June 2012. stimulate an innovative competitive dynamic in the Chinese upstream A realistic perspective service sector and an appropriate on Japan’s LNG Demand upstream investment framework with foreign participants for the transfer after Fukushima and application of technology. The earthquake and tsunami which left The paper provides a rare appreciation its toll of destruction and tragic loss of the dynamics of the onshore of life on Japan’s eastern seaboard on Chinese upstream industry, and from 11 March 2011 was a natural disaster that basis a better understanding of of the highest order. What is less well what will be required, on a number appreciated is the sheer extent of the of policy levels, to achieve success in damage and disruption to Japan’s Chinese shale gas development. The industry and energy infrastructure, paper was published in April 2012. including its non-nuclear facilities. This working paper addresses, Continental European methodically and in detail, the extent Gas Hubs: Are They of the impact of the 11 March 2011 events on Japan’s energy complex Fit For Purpose? and describes the policy process and political tensions which led to Japan This paper follows naturally from progressively taking its nuclear power Patrick Heather’s 2010 paper ‘The facilities of ine. It also describes
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how, through higher utilization of unconventional resources, a deeper fossil fuel plant and enforced and understanding of the political economy voluntary demand conservation of these gas resource-rich countries measures, the country has coped is necessary in order to realistically with this unprecedented reduction appraise their future participation in generation capacity. The impact of in the global natural gas system. higher Japanese LNG imports is one component of this response which, Although it is unwise and dif cult to through changes in LNG trade- generalize across such a wide swathe ow patterns since March 2011, has of geography, certain themes recur in affected not just Asian but arguably this paper. These include: the historic also European natural gas markets. perception of gas having a low inherent value as a by-product of oil production; Looking forward, it is expected that the use of low-priced gas as a currency Japan’s future energy policy will for perpetuating the ‘social compact’ stress a reduced reliance on nuclear, between regimes and the subject emphasize renewables in order to population; the challenges faced when pursue carbon dioxide abatement domestic demand overtakes domestic goals, while in practice relying production availability; and the more on LNG as a fuel for power increasing pressures on state nances generation and also for space heating as the need for high-priced imports, or and industrial consumers. The key the consumption of oil in the domestic uncertainty is the policy-driven path power sector, are accepted as seductive of future nuclear generation. It is in but expensive short-term expedients. this context that the paper provides a timely and robust evaluation The necessity for reform of gas prices of Japan’s future LNG import (the subsidy of which has, intentionally requirements based, inevitably, on or otherwise, effectively become an ill- a range of scenarios regarding the targeted subsidy system) looms larger future utilization of operable nuclear with the passage of time, though in power facilities. This working the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the paper by Akira Miyamoto, Chikako ability to implement such changes is Ishiguro, and Mitsuhiro Nakamura understandably dif cult for regional was published in June 2012. leaders. Nevertheless, such measures are being attempted, with varying Issues in the pricing of success. In Nigeria this has been met domestic and internationally- with resistance but, as Hakim describes with justi cation, in Iran the process traded gas in MENA and has been relatively well managed and sub-Saharan Africa appears to be bearing fruit in terms of improved ef ciency of gas utilization In an age where it is assumed that and a more progressive targeting international natural gas trading will of subsidy to poorer households. continue to accelerate and that the countries of the Middle East and Africa Clearly, if the region is to play a greater will play a substantial role in providing role in the global natural gas trade the necessary export volumes, this than at present, the task of pricing paper by Hakim Darbouche serves as reform and resource governance in a timely reminder that proved reserves general is signi cant. This paper statistics do not necessarily translate offers an objective appraisal of these smoothly into export ows. Whilst challenges faced and an understanding it is evident that the countries of the of the country-speci c dynamics. This Middle East and North Africa (MENA) working paper by Hakim Darbouche and sub-Saharan Africa hold almost 50 was published in June 2012. per cent of the world’s proven reserves, with much additional potential for the discovery of more conventional and
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The O shore Discovery Gas with CCS in the UK in the Republic of Cyprus – Waiting for Godot? – Monetisation Prospects This paper shows that all aspects and Challenges of the implementation of CCS projects are complex, albeit that the The discovery of a signi cant gas eld underlying technologies have been offshore Cyprus in December 2011 by used individually in the petrochemical, Noble Energy came close on the heels re ning, and upstream industries of the major discoveries in adjacent for decades. Even for those who can offshore Israel, further astounding the make little claim to understanding international upstream exploration the technical aspects of the different and production community who had processes, the uncertainty of the largely overlooked the prospectivity of economic assumptions, and the this area. For the Republic of Cyprus, number of commercial interfaces whose economy is dominated by required for transportation and storage tourism and the service sector, and (or enhanced oil recovery recycling and whose prospects appear overshadowed storage) of the carbon dioxide represent by a wider Eurozone economic daunting challenges. Costs and malaise, this discovery super cially technical and commercial complexity offers a path to lower domestic energy go a long way towards explaining why costs and substantial export revenues. there is no gas- red power plant with carbon dioxide capture and storage In this working paper, Anastasios in operation or under construction Giamouridis describes the status of the anywhere in the world. The few Aphrodite discovery and applications gas-related CCS projects which exist for the second licensing round, and serve to process natural gas to grid the options for the development of the speci cation and either store carbon eld and the export strategy for gas dioxide close to gas production sites, produced in excess of Cyprus’ modest or use it for enhanced oil recovery. current and future consumption needs. He juxtaposes the logical With slower than expected progress process of eld and export option of other forms of power generation, development by the operator facing UK policy makers have come to the the customary eld size uncertainty realization that gas- red capacity will ahead of further appraisal drilling remain important for a considerable with the rising expectations not just period of time. This in turn will mean of the Cypriot government but also of that the question of whether CCS neighbouring countries – both those should be tted (and retro tted) to with aspirations to share in this source gas- red power generation is likely of hydrocarbon wealth and those to move higher up the UK’s climate openly disputing the Cypriot sovereign policy agenda. Howard Rogers’ study hydrocarbon ownership rights. demonstrates, on paper, that gas- red generation with CCS can be more This paper, as well as presenting a competitive than the low-carbon detailed and comprehensive account generation options that it is generally of the challenges facing Cyprus in assumed will see the most signi cant the monetisation of its hydrocarbon growth in the UK over the next decade, resource, exempli es the OIES but the commercial complexities of Natural Gas Programme’s desire CCS projects set out in this paper, do to integrate the factual aspects of not give cause for optimism about its the natural gas industry with the future development, in the absence interlinking social and geopolitical of a clear and sustained commitment considerations, in an independent from government. This working paper and objective manner. This working was published in September 2012. paper was published in July 2012.
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The Gas Relationship The Potential Impact between the Baltic States of North American and Russia – Politics and LNG Exports Commercial Realities At present the divergence between While the OIES Natural Gas the US Henry Hub, European hub or Programme has published extensively oil-indexed prices, and Asian LNG on gas relationships between Russia JCC contract prices has never been and all European and CIS countries, so marked. However, just as ‘nature this is the rst paper which addresses abhors a vacuum’, trade and arbitrage the Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia, and dynamics will inevitable seek to Lithuania. While Russian gas exports exploit such price differences and, in to the Baltic countries are small in doing so, reduce them. Beyond 2015, numerical terms, they are highly new sources of LNG supply from signi cant both politically and in the Australia, North America, and East energy balances of those countries. Africa will accelerate such arbitrage activity, although the scale and timing Agnia Grigas’ work on Baltic Energy of these new ‘waves’ of LNG are relations with Russia is the rst of subject to considerable uncertainty. which we are aware which gives a detailed account of such relationship This paper, by James Henderson, in a post-Soviet world. While these focuses on future North American markets are small, they have a number LNG exports which, while subject to of complex attributes such as: huge political and production performance storage capacity in Latvia, pipeline uncertainty, have the potential to interconnections between the countries, create a considerable impact in the Russia’s reliance on Lithuania for likely destination markets of Asia, and transit to Kaliningrad, and substantial also (through displacement of other Gazprom sector shareholdings. Middle East or African-sourced LNG) Europe. Whilst it is unlikely that all Twenty years after the end of the the identi ed US and Canadian LNG Soviet Union the Baltic States remain export projects will proceed, there is completely dependent on Russian the potential that suf cient investment gas, despite a conviction throughout will be forthcoming to allow arbitrage the region that this relationship has to proceed to its ‘equilibrium’, given been, and remains, economically favourable policy decisions. exploitative. The study reviews the evolution of Russian gas relations The paper provides a timely summary with the Baltic States, including their of the investment intentions, policy (so far unsuccessful) determination to options and consequences, the extent diversify supplies by importing LNG. to which the prospect of LNG exports Disagreements between Gazprom and are stimulating a desire to move to a Baltic governments over ownership of hub-based price formation mechanism gas networks, together with antitrust in Asia, and the consequent dilemmas proceedings brought by DG COMP facing LNG suppliers (and would- against Gazprom, have given this be suppliers) who have a strong paper a very topical signi cance. preference for JCC-based pricing. For This working paper by Agnia Grigas observers of the increasingly inter- was published in October 2012. linked global gas scene and those who are interested in the evolution of gas pricing mechanisms, this paper provides an informative and comprehensive description of the ‘state of play’ of this potentially game- changing development. This paper was published in October 2012.
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The Pricing of Internationally Gas Pricing in Continental Europe’, Traded Gas Jonathan Stern and Howard Rogers; ‘CIS pricing: towards European This is the rst book in any language netback?’, Simon Pirani, James to focus exclusively on the pricing Henderson and Katja Ya mava; of internationally traded gas. Gas ‘The Political Economy of Pricing in accounts for around 25 per cent Gas-Rich Countries in the Middle of global energy demand and East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan international gas trade is growing Africa’, Hakim Darbouche; ‘Pricing rapidly. The rst chapter looks at of pipeline gas and LNG in Latin some of the economic theory of energy America and the Caribbean’, David pricing, looking at the contribution Ledesma and Anouk Honoré; ‘Pricing that theory can make to the study of pipeline gas and LNG in south-east of international gas pricing. This Asia’, David Ledesma; ‘Gas Pricing in is followed by a historical chapter India’, Anupama Sen; ‘Gas Pricing in tracing the origins and development China’, Michael Chen; ‘LNG Pricing of international gas pricing in North in Asia’, Jane Liao and Andy Flower; America, Europe, Asia, and the former ‘Interaction of LNG and pipeline gas Soviet Union since the 1970s, and pricing: does greater connectivity other regions up to the early 2000s. equal globalization?’, Howard Rogers; The main part of the book focuses ‘The Gas Exporting Countries Forum: on developments in the 2000s, with global or regional cartelization?’, a view to how gas pricing is likely Anouk Honoré and Laura El- to develop during the 2010s and Katiri; ‘Conclusions: globalization, beyond. Aside from the traditional cartelization or a continuation of gas trading regions, the book covers: regional pricing?’, Jonathan Stern. the Middle East, North Africa, sub- Saharan Africa, Latin America, Central Asian and Caspian south-east Asia, India, China, and Gas Production and the Paci c Basin LNG. These national and regional studies are followed by Constraint on Exports chapters on the globalization of gas markets and prices, and the potential There has been a great deal of development of a ‘gas-OPEC’. The discussion about the central Asian concluding chapter considers the and Caspian region’s potential to extent to which international gas produce and export gas, and about pricing is likely to remain regional projects designed to establish new or whether gas could become a pipeline routes, for example to Europe ‘global market’ – with a global and south Asia. The discovery of the price – akin to the crude oil market. South Yolotan (Galkynysh) eld in A third possibility to be considered Turkmenistan, now con rmed as one is whether international pricing is of the world’s largest, has renewed likely to come under the control of a interest in the region. But the reality small group of countries – a possible has confounded many expectations. ‘gas OPEC’ – similar to the in uence Apart from traditional export routes of OPEC in the crude oil market. to Russia and Iran, the only new corridor opened up has been to This multi-author book, published in China. This detailed survey of the 2012, was edited by Jonathan Stern. region, focused mainly on the four The authors of the chapters are: ‘The main gas producers (Turkmenistan, Future of Gas: what are the analytical Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and issues relating to pricing?’, Christopher Azerbaijan), and examined why the Allsopp and Jonathan Stern; ‘Pricing of presence of considerable resources gas in international trade – an historical does not necessarily guarantee rapid survey’, Jonathan Stern; ‘Natural gas development. The political and pricing in North America’, Michelle economic background, the upstream Foss; ‘The Transition to Hub-Based conditions, and domestic markets
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are considered, as is the export trade. prospect of long-term energy self- This working paper by Simon Pirani suf ciency and the development of a was published in December 2012 new revenue stream for the economy. With the resource potential of the Perspectives for Levant Basin believed to be much Biogas in Europe higher than the 35 Tcf of gas discovered recently, the East Mediterranean is now This paper, by Floris van Foreest, the focus of much interest on the part assesses the prospects and challenges of major upstream investors. However, facing biomass in the future European in the short- to medium-term, the energy mix. In studies and discussions development and monetization of of future energy sources, the term these resources present stakeholders ‘gas’ tends to be synonymous with with a set of challenges originating in ‘natural gas’ with its attendant the region’s complex political make-up, issues of upstream exploration and as well as in the fact that their energy production dynamics, geopolitics, and gas utilization policies are still and the ubiquitous speculation works in progress, over and above around shale gas. Biogas is frequently the technical dif culties relating to neglected in such a context, despite the development of these resources. its potential to contribute to de- This paper examines the challenges carbonization, in some applications and opportunities that have arisen using existing transmission networks. following these discoveries, arguing that to 2020 East Mediterranean gas is Floris van Foreest describes the present more likely to be a game-changer for and future conversion processes local energy systems than for regional in which biomass is converted to and international gas markets. biogas, the scale and growth of biogas production in individual European This paper, authored by Hakim countries, and the outlook to 2020 and Darbouche, Bassam Fattouh, beyond. The technical and economic and Laura El-Katiri, was challenges facing biogas production, published in December 2012. its end-use applications, and the regulatory and supporting subsidy Pro t margins in schemes in force are discussed. energy supply While the paper questions whether John Rhys completed his work biogas targets for 2020 will be met, (described in the 2011 annual report) given the current pace of development, with the Institute for Public Policy it provides the reader with a Research (IPPR) on margins in comprehensive understanding of the energy supply businesses. The IPPR subject area and objectively addresses report was issued in April 2013. the challenges facing this renewable energy source. This working paper Demand side management was published in December 2012. – Intermittency and East Mediterranean Gas – electricity storage what kind of a game-changer? John Rhys continues his analysis of The discovery of sizable gas resources issues relating to demand management in the Levant Basin – a geological and storage, and problematic aspects structure that straddles the territorial of these questions for the operation waters of Cyprus, Israel, the Palestinian of electricity wholesale markets. Territories, Lebanon, and Syria – has the potential to be game-changing for the East Mediterranean region. Hitherto net energy importers, these countries are now faced with the
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Evolution of global decarbonizing the electricity sector. electricity markets: New They explain why, in many cases, this has led to a move away from paradigms, new challenges, reliance on market forces and towards new approaches more central control. They then look at a number of alternative models Malcolm Keay, John Rhys, and David which might leave more room for Robinson have co-authored a chapter competition. The paper also examines for a forthcoming book: Evolution of the wider changes in the electricity global electricity markets: New paradigms, industry which will be the result of new challenges, new approaches, to be a move to lower-carbon sources, and published by Elsevier in 2013. The discusses a range of issues which chapter takes the UK electricity market governments will need to consider, reforms as a starting point. With a in addition to promoting the low- view to identifying policy options for carbon investments themselves. other countries, it explores alternative models of reforming the electricity Carbon dioxide emissions sector to meet the combined objectives from energy use: the of economic ef ciency, resource adequacy, and decarbonization. third energy transition
UK electricity Various speci c outputs noted market reforms elsewhere from Malcolm Keay are linked to a wider study on how the Major reforms have been proposed transition to a low-carbon energy to UK electricity markets in order system can be effected. Previous to deliver the very large amounts of work under this heading has looked low-carbon generation investment at long-term energy developments – nuclear and renewable sources – and what they suggest about the which will be needed to meet the UK underlying drivers of energy use and government’s carbon targets. In a the associated emissions. The current series of Comment pieces, Malcolm phase of the project has been looking Keay has analysed the proposals as at speci c policy approaches and they have developed and discussed their limitations. The focus is now their strengths and weaknesses. moving to the wider implications of decarbonization for the energy Electric Vehicles sector, in particular the growing importance of the demand side. David Robinson has begun a research project on the potential market for Social Cost of Carbon – electric vehicles. The central question ‘Cumulative carbon dioxide’ he addresses is what potential they have to in uence world oil demand John Rhys’s discussions with and carbon dioxide emission Committee on Climate Change staff reductions. He published a rst and others led him to conduct a review article on this subject in the February of Treasury/DECC guidance on the 2010 Oxford Energy Forum. valuation of carbon dioxide emissions in analysis of public sector policies and Decarbonization of the projects. Critique of this government electricity sector: Is there guidance, and identi cation of its shortcomings, has now been still a place for markets? published as OIES Comment, and discussed with DECC personnel. This paper is a fuller version of the book chapter described above. In it, The EU emissions trading system is Malcolm Keay, John Rhys, and David failing to produce a carbon price that Robinson look at the policy goal of is ef cacious in promoting low-carbon
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investment or a low-carbon economy. How to Operationalize Carbon price projections from this Respective Capabilities scheme are nevertheless incorporated in the formal guidance issued by the according to the UN UK Treasury to guide government Framework Convention departments in appraising policy on Climate Change initiatives and projects. The Treasury’s guidance deals with this issue of the Article 3.1 of the UN Framework carbon price by trying to maintain a Convention on Climate Change distinction between emissions in what (UNFCCC) stipulates that Parties it calls the ‘traded sector’ (sectors ‘should protect the climate system such as power and aviation covered … in accordance with their common by the EU ETS) and the ‘non-traded but differentiated responsibilities sector’, which includes domestic gas and respective capabilities’. and road transport. The Comment Regrettably, there is no consensus shows that this distinction is untenable as to the meaning of this proviso. and has the potential to create serious In particular, its references to distortions in policy. The Comment ‘responsibilities’ and ‘capabilities’ explains how these are likely to arise. are notoriously ill-speci ed: ‘Capability’ – the theme of Benito John Rhys also engaged with Müller and Lavan Mahadeva’s work OFGEM’s strategic and sustainability – can refer to many different things. assessment (SSA) review on this There is ‘institutional capability’, subject. This work also led on to ‘technological capability’, or ‘economic presentation of a paper on the subject capability’, to name just a few. to the BIEE Academic Conference held in Oxford in September 2012. Benito Müller and Lavan Mahadeva propose a measure for national General Energy and ‘differentiated economic capabilities Climate Policy issues (‘ability to pay’) as an integral part of an operationalization. The John Rhys has continued to pursue primary purpose of the measure is this work in the context of the BIEE to de ne or assess climate change Climate Change Policy Group and cost/burden sharing (schemes). To the Parker seminars, leading to his illustrate the potential use of this engagement as organiser of a BIEE methodology, they consider two seminar programme for 2013. examples: assessing the fairness of a given cost distribution; and developing He also received a request from a (rule-based) ‘graduation scheme’ the Committee on Climate Change regarding obligations to pay. (CCC) to peer review a report by CCC on the progress of UK policy. Balanced Clean Development This report was for submission by the in China – Climate Change CCC to the Open Climate Network of the World Resources Institute. This research project is part of the The peer review was carried out, OIES project on Balanced Clean and made some suggestions which Development in China. David were welcomed by the CCC. Robinson and Benito Muller carried out a study on the potential for large- scale collaboration between the EU and China to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the Chinese power sector. The project is nished and the report was launched at the UNFCCC meeting in Tianjin in October 2010. The central issue in the research is to identify barriers to large-scale
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collaboration to promote zero emission of North America. The research technologies in China and to seek illustrates that EOR can provide a to lower those barriers through an source of revenue and carbon dioxide EU–China high-level agreement, storage for CCS projects, and that speci cally related to wind power. CCS projects can provide carbon dioxide for EOR. It also identi es David Robinson has developed the key barriers that are slowing this the argument further, writing and mutually bene cial development. speaking about the potential for agreements involving China to David participated in a UNFCCC accelerate decarbonization on a global technical workshop in Abu Dhabi basis by driving down the costs of in September 2011 that de ned low-carbon technologies. He has the requirements to enable CCS to spoken at a number of conferences receive funding under the Clean on the topic, including in Bern Development Mechanism of the (Switzerland) and Dalian (China) in UNFCCC. He presented a paper on 2011. He has been asked to speak on the complementarity of CCS and EOR this topic at a conference in Istanbul in Dalian (China) in October 2011. He (Turkey) in April 2012, and is preparing has published an article on this topic in an OIES paper on the subject. an industry magazine and has spoken frequently on the topic, including in The research has had policy Abu Dhabi and in Oxford in 2012. implications. In 2010, the Spanish Government adopted a proposal US Energy and Climate from the paper, namely to sign an Change Policy MOU with China to collaborate in the development of renewable David Robinson’s project examines and alternative energies. The the critical importance of coal-based Spain–China MOU contributed generation as a source of greenhouse to global commercial agreements gas emissions, and analyses the between Spanish companies and dif culties in cutting these emissions. Chinese companies in the wind The central argument is that the US sector. The evidence of success with coal and electricity lobbies were this combination of political and instrumental in stopping the passage commercial agreements was used by of federal climate change legislation in the British Government and the EU 2009/10. Although this was considered to encourage China to support the a victory by these lobbies, the absence sort of comprehensive global climate of legislation has arguably worsened agreement that emerged in Durban. the prospects for coal and coal-based electricity in the USA, and has had Complementarity other problematic implications. of CCS and EOR First, the USA has lost a large part of its credibility and in uence in David Robinson is carrying out international negotiations over climate research on the complementarity change. Second, important parts between CCS and EOR projects. On of the US economy, notably those the one hand, CCS is considered as involving ‘clean coal’ technologies critical in the ght to deal with climate like CCS, and related services, have change; but there is very slow progress been weakened as result of diminished in developing the technology at scale, demand in the USA and less nancial and some important demonstration support from the public and private projects have been cancelled. On the sector. Third, the absence of US other hand, EOR is an important legislation has facilitated the growth means of increasing global recoverable of ‘unabated’ coal-based generation oil reserves, and should become more around the world, noticeably in China attractive as oil prices rise; but there and India. This research will lead to has been very little EOR outside an OIES book. Meanwhile, David has
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published an OIES Working Paper bottom-up activism from municipal and an article in the Carbon and companies and citizens’ cooperatives Climate Law Review on this topic. in support of low-carbon energy. Energy security in a Europe’s misshapen multipolar world market – why progress A major interdisciplinary project has towards a single energy been conducted under the aegis of market is proving uneven the UK Energy Research Council, on the new energy security challenges Faster-than-expected national facing the UK. It approaches security promotion of intermittent renewable in a broader and more exible manner energy is panicking governments than traditional studies, focusing into developing national back-up not just on energy supply but on the capacity schemes for these renewables. need to integrate the wide range of The combination of these national energy challenges facing the UK and renewable and capacity markets would in particular on the transition to low- effectively shut off countries’ energy carbon energy systems. As part of this sectors from each other, and negate project, Malcolm Keay co-authored all the plodding work of building a chapter on ‘Energy Demand and cross-border interconnectors, agreeing Energy Ef ciency’ which looks at the pan-European network codes schemes, contribution the demand side can and coupling power markets. make to security in this wider sense. It concludes that much more attention Prospects for Wind needs to be given to energy demand, Energy in Colombia but that energy ef ciency is not the key issue. It will form part of the David Robinson directed an OIES book Energy Security in a Multipolar project (funded by the UK FCO World to be published in 2013. Prosperity Fund) on the potential for private investment in wind power in The Energiewende – Colombia under the current regulatory Germany’s gamble framework. The project analyses how wind power and other intermittent Germany has set itself a huge renewables should be compensated for challenge in trying to move away their contribution to electricity system from fossil fuels and abandon nuclear reliability, especially during periods power, while still remaining a major of el Niño, when hydro generation industrial power. This challenge to is severely limited. How reliability is create an Energiewende – an energy measured has an important impact turnaround or transformation – has on the pro tability of wind power. ambitious targets. David Buchan We show that the current regulation argues Germany is on track to meet underestimates that contribution. only one of its three main targets – a However, even when the contribution one-third renewable share of electricity to reliability is properly measured, in 2020 – and that the country will fail wind power is unattractive for to reach the target – cutting energy private investors under the existing consumption by a fth by 2020 – that ‘technology neutral’ regulatory would make attainment of the other framework. The question for the two goals (emission reduction and Colombian Government is whether renewable energy growth) easier. But, they wish to actively ‘promote’ wind in a broader sense, Germany’s gamble and other renewable sources of may still come off, provided future power, as other countries like Peru gains in renewable technology and have done, or to wait until these jobs can be achieved at lower subsidy technologies are competitive without cost. No other country can tap such special treatment. If they decide to technical expertise from industry or wait, then we recommend that they
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at least level the competitive playing eld by (a) compensating properly the contribution of intermittent renewables to system reliability and (b) tax or otherwise take account of the negative externalities (such as the environmental and social costs) of large hydro and coal projects.
The aim of the study is to offer ideas to the Colombian Government on possible regulatory reform. The report was shown to the Ministry of the Environment, the energy regulator (CREG), and potential investors in the energy sector. It was presented at a workshop at the British Embassy in Bogota in May and the nal report has been published by the OIES.
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Journals and Website In addition to its ongoing research Website – programmes, the Institute publishes www.oxfordenergy.org a debating journal and hosts an increasingly popular website. These The website contains full information activities not only help meet our on OIES presentations, publications goal as an educational charity, but and published articles, research in also complement our research and progress, and staff. The Comment place us at the centre of important section provides an assessment, by debates within the eld of energy. members of the research staff, of important energy events. The Natural Oxford Energy Forum Gas Programme and the Oil and the Middle East Programme have The Institute’s quarterly debating dedicated sections within the main site. journal, now in its twenty-third year, continues to tackle topical issues During 2012 the catalogue of working facing the energy world. During the papers, energy comments, and year, issues covered have included: presentations on the Institute’s website Africa’s energy outlook; natural gas continued to grow. The site now holds demand and supply; the controversy more than 200 working papers along over energy subsidies and oil price with over 200 presentations and energy benchmarks in international trade. comments, all of which are freely Our thanks go to the authors of available to download. Subscriptions all articles that appeared in OEF to the Institute’s email noti cation in 2012, to Bassam Fattouh the service continued to increase. editor, and to our guest editors.
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Lectures and Seminars As part of its mandate to promote energy, the future of nuclear power, scholarly cooperation between energy and geopolitics with a focus on MENA. producers and consumers, and its commitment to education, the Institute Outlook for Brazilian strives to disseminate the results of Oil: A Key Source of its research as widely as possible. The lectures and seminars enable the Relief for Oil Markets or Institute’s researchers to present the Hyped Expectations? ndings of completed projects and to subject work in progress to the In January 2012, the OIES successfully criticism of colleagues in industry, held its annual Oil Day; this year’s government, and academia. In 2012 theme focused entirely on the role of the Institute’s Research Fellows, Brazil’s oil production and reserves its Programme Directors, and its in today’s and tomorrow’s global Director gave numerous presentations, oil market. The conference was and talks at various conferences, attended by thirty- ve key gures workshops, seminars, and meetings. from within the oil industry, including Brazilian oil industry representatives, Energy Lectures representatives from IOCs and from nancial institutions, price assessment The Geopolitics of Energy seminar agencies, the energy business series, run in association with St community, as well as OIES staff. Antony’s College, Oxford, and The conference covered, in one day, organized by Dr Shamil Yenikeyeff, ran different aspects of the Brazilian oil during Hilary term in 2012. Lectures industry, including current outlooks given included, Arctic Oil and Gas: for production and its impact on Opportunities and Challenges by Tim the global oil market; technological, Reilly, Timothy Krysiek, and Shamil regulatory, and political challenges to Yenikeyeff; China’s Energy Challenges Brazil’s oil industry; and government and their Implications by Michael strategies for the Brazilian energy Chen; and Oil and Politics in Iraq by sector in the short- and long-term. Gregg Muttitt. Our thanks go to all those who gave lectures in 2012. This year’s event was kindly supported by Energy Intelligence Group. XXIII Brainstorming The Changing North Since 1990 the Institute has been American Energy holding an annual brainstorming meeting, which draws together people Scene and its Impact on from producing and consuming Traditional Suppliers and countries, national and private oil their Export Markets companies, governments, nancial institutes, and other research In November 2012, the OIES held organizations. The twenty-third such a one day seminar on the changing meeting was held in May this year in North American energy scene; Seville, Spain with the kind support discussions centred around three main of Cheniere. Over 40 participants topics: recent developments in North engaged in lively discussions on a American oil and gas markets and wide range of energy issues including US government policy options; the the global economic outlook and risks, impact on markets and players; and the oil and re ning sectors, oil supply the geopolitical impact on international and demand, LNG and natural gas, relations and US foreign policy. The climate change and carbon trading, the Seminar was well attended and changing electricity sector, alternative kindly supported by Saudi Aramco.
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2012 Gas Day of continental European gas hubs, UK gas storage, and UK gas policy The Institute’s Natural Gas Programme completed the European section of the organized its seventh annual ‘Gas meeting. Key ndings and conclusions Day’ in November 2012 to discuss from the book Natural Gas in India: current issues including ‘Asian Gas Liberalisation and Policy were presented. and LNG Demand Growth – Onwards On MENA, two prospective papers on and Upwards or Hard Landing?’, the offshore Cyprus discovery and East concentrating on the outlooks for Mediterranean offshore gas in general Japanese LNG, Chinese demand were outlined. On decarbonization for natural gas and LNG, and the prospective papers on biogas and ‘overlooked market’ of south-east gas with CCS were outlined. Asia. Also discussed under the heading of ‘New Cargoes on the The November meeting focused on a Horizon?’ were the prospects for future book on Russian gas, the gas North American LNG exports, the hub database project, the outlook for timing and costs of Australian LNG Japanese LNG post Fukushima, central projects, and the emerging new Asian gas, and Chinese pricing and supply province of East Africa. The demand. A paper on North American nal session on ‘Gas in the European LNG exports was discussed in addition Energy Mix’ discussed the European to an outline of a prospective paper on economy and implications for energy East African LNG. Gas and German demand growth, the role of gas in energy policy, Baltic gas relations with German energy policy, and ‘What is Russia, the gas markets of Pakistan After Oil Indexation for Europe?’ and Bangladesh, and the Southern Cone markets were also discussed. The Seminar, held at St Anne’s College, Oxford, was attended by 91 people including sponsors of the Natural Gas Programme and the Institute, and invited guests from the academic, media, and corporate sectors. Gas Programme Sponsors Meeting The Institute’s Natural Gas Programme held its bi-annual Sponsors’ Meetings on 14 and 15 May and on 7 November at St. Hugh’s College, Oxford. The meetings were attended by the Natural Gas Programme Sponsors and authors of the Programme from a range of countries and backgrounds: academia, industry, and energy journalism. Ongoing research projects and progress reports were discussed.
The May meeting discussed the book The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas, the causes of the February 2012 European gas price spike, central Asian gas research, and the EU Third package for gas and the Gas Target Model. European demand and a forthcoming project on the Italian gas market were also discussed. The development
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Library The Institute’s library is its most valuable research tool and to ensure valuable research tool. In 2012, it is as widely accessible as possible. the Institute continued to expand its collection. The library has in The Institute would like to offer excess of 13,000 titles, comprising thanks to: Blackwell’s, Elsevier, Energy one of the world’s foremost public Intelligence Group, the European collections of books, journals, and Commission, ICEED, IEA, IFS, IMF, statistical sources within its specialist Gas Matters, Global Market Brie ngs, the subject area. In addition, around Middle East Economic Survey, OAPEC, 150 journals and annuals, many of OPEC, OECD, Oxford University Press, a statistical nature, were received Petroleum Argus, Petroleum Intelligence, either through subscription or for supplying, either free of charge donation. There are now lengthy or at a signi cantly discounted price, back les of some of these serial important trade journals, statistical publications. The library also receives sources, and other materials vital many company reports each year. to our research work which could not have been afforded otherwise. The Institute has been fortunate in being able to acquire historical materials from a number of sources. In 1984 the Institute purchased the library from Walter J. Levy’s London of ce. Since then, the Institute has acquired other materials from the late Professor Edith Penrose, and from both the Middle East Centre and the Latin American Centre, at St Antony’s College. In 1988 Shell generously donated an extensive collection of periodicals to the library. During 1992 Walter Greaves kindly donated many items from his library. In 1993 John Mitchell donated material that he had collected over many years. Historical statistics are of obvious use in research; other publications that may seem no longer useful to commercial companies could still be of worth to the Institute. In 2001 Jim Jensen, former President of Jensen Associates, retired and sold his library. The Institute purchased a number of his books and journals for its collection.
The Institute is always interested to hear from companies that are clearing space on their shelves, in case they have material that would ll an important gap in its collection. The library is used not only by staff, but also by students from Oxford and other universities, and by researchers from abroad. It remains the Institute’s policy to maintain the collection as a
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Research Team and Sta Christopher Allsopp CBE, was Upstream Pro ts and Taxes in US Gulf appointed Director in January 2006; he Offshore Oil and Gas (OUP, 2006). is an Emeritus Fellow of New College, Oxford. He is author of a Review of David Buchan, Senior Research Statistics for Economic Policymaking Fellow, joined the Institute in January (the ‘Allsopp Review’). He is a former 2007. He was educated in Oxford and Member of the Monetary Policy Geneva. He started his writing career Committee (2000–3) and of the Court of in 1970 with The Economist and in 1975 Directors of the Bank of England (1997– joined the Financial Times where he 2000). He is the Editor of the Oxford remained until 2006. He was based Review of Economic Policy and a Director in Brussels, Washington DC, and of Oxford Economic Forecasting. Paris and covered energy, defence, Previous activities include working the Soviet bloc, and diplomacy. From at HM Treasury, the OECD, and 2000 to 2002 he was the FT Energy the Bank of England (where he was Editor. In 2012 he published an OIES Adviser from 1980 to 1983) as well as working paper on Germany’s energy extensive involvement with domestic revolution, and an OIES comment and international policy issues as on Europe’s internal energy market consultant to international institutions (to be expanded into a full paper in and private sector organizations. He 2013). He also wrote a policy brief has published extensively on monetary, on integrating renewables into the scal, and exchange rate issues, as well European energy market for the Centre as the problems of economic reform for European Reform, and edited the and transition. His involvement in of cial publication for the Kuwait the economics of oil and other energy congress of the International Energy issues goes back to the shocks of the Forum, which featured a contribution 1970s. He has been involved with the from Bassam Fattouh of the OIES. work of the OIES since its inception. Hakim Darbouche, Research Fellow, Juan Carlos Boué, Senior Research joined the OIES in April 2009. He is Fellow, is an oil industry consultant; an expert on North Africa, focusing he started his career working at the on energy, political economy, politics, international trading arm of Petróleos and international relations, and has Mexicanos (PEMEX). His professional published extensively on issues activities have focused on petroleum, relating to these themes. Prior to alternating between academia – he joining the Institute, he served as was a Senior Research Fellow of the adviser on MENA affairs to a NATO OIES from 2000 to 2004 – and industry. agency in Brussels. He has a PhD From 2005 to 2009, he was special in International Relations from the advisor to the Venezuelan minister University of Liverpool. In Oxford, he of Energy and Petroleum and sat on is also a senior member of St. Antony’s the boards of most of Petróleos de College and a Region Head on the Venezuela’s (PDVSA) re ning ventures MENA Desk at Oxford Analytica. abroad. He has written widely on the industrial economics of oil and John Elkins, Research Fellow, was, gas exploration and production, and until four years ago, managing editor petroleum re ning industries, as of the Gas Strategies publications well as on taxation and the political department, responsible for Gas economy of oil in general. His current Matters, Gas Matters Today, and other research concerns the governance publications. He is still actively mechanisms and legal structure involved as Associate Editor, and is a underpinning the international oil regular presenter at the Gas Strategies industry. He is author of A Question of Gas Chain training course. He joined Rigs, of Rules, or of Rigging the Rules? Gas Strategies as a consultant in 1995
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after leaving British Gas HQ, where liquefaction projects in Nigeria, Abu he held various posts involving Dhabi, Australia, Qatar, Indonesia, liaison with Regions on annual and Trinidad. He has provided and peak forecasting methodology, advice to companies planning LNG and preparation of amalgamated receiving terminals in North America, national, annual, and peak supply and Europe, and Asia and has negotiated demand forecasts. He was Secretary LNG sales contracts with buyers of the Matching Panel, which advised in all the major LNG markets. the British Gas board on supply/ demand issues for company plans Floris van Foreest, Research Fellow, and negotiations with Ofgas, OFT, joined the OIES in October 2008. and the Monopolies Commission. He is an experienced consultant in He joined the OIES in January 2008 the eld of power and gas market and, in addition to editing many of analysis, scenario development, its Gas Programme working papers, and sustainability. Earlier in his has written the paper ‘Natural Gas career he held various roles in in the UK: An Industry in Search of a multinational companies. Floris Policy?’, which was published in 2010. is a Research Fellow of the OIES Natural Gas Research Programme Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oil whose research is focused on the role and the Middle East Programme and of gas in the energy transition. He Deputy Director at the OIES is also a studied Business Administration and Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Political Science at the University Oxford; and Professor at the School of of Groningen and Amsterdam. Oriental and African Studies. He has published a variety of articles on the Fan Gao, Research Fellow, joined international oil pricing system, OPEC the OIES in January 2011. She works pricing power, security of Middle for Statoil in Global Strategy and Eastern oil supplies, and the dynamics Business Development. Her research of oil prices and oil price differentials; currently focuses on unconventional his articles have appeared in Energy gas development (particularly shale Economics, The Energy Journal, and gas) in China and its impacts on Energy Policy. Bassam Fattouh has also China’s future energy plan and global published in non energy-related areas energy landscape. She is a graduate where his papers have appeared in the of China Foreign Affairs University Journal of Development Economics, Oxford with a BA in English and International Review of Economic Policy, Economic Studies. She worked in Statoil’s of ces Inquiry, Empirical Economics, Journal in China, Norway, and the UK before of Financial Intermediation, Economics this assignment with OIES. Her Letters, Macroeconomic Dynamics, main areas of expertise are upstream and in other journals and books. business development and Chinese government and political affairs. Andy Flower, Senior Research Fellow, joined the OIES in May 2009. He Patrick Heather, Senior Research works as an independent consultant Fellow, joined the Institute in June specializing in the LNG business. His 2006. His paper ‘The Evolution areas of expertise include: strategy, and Functioning of the Traded Gas marketing, project structures, LNG Market in Britain’ was published shipping, pricing, LNG supply and in August 2010. He co-authored demand, and project economics. He a Comment ‘Lessons from the retired from BP in 2001 after 32 years February 2012 European gas crisis’ of service, which included 22 years with Jim Henderson and, in June involved in LNG and natural gas 2012, published his paper on the business activities. His last post prior ‘Continental European Gas Hubs: to retirement was as Senior Adviser, Are they t for purpose?’. He is Global LNG. At various times during currently continuing his research on his career, Flower was involved in the development of European gas
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hubs, with particular focus on the studies the natural gas markets in increasing traded volumes, and on Latin America. She published the developments in eastern Europe. book European Natural Gas Demand, Since 2004, Patrick has been an Supply and Pricing: cycles, seasons and independent consultant advising and the impact of LNG arbitrage (Oxford giving presentations to many different University Press) in December 2010. organizations, including the APX and Additional publications can be ICE futures exchanges and various found on the OIES website. Before producer and end-user companies, joining the Institute, Anouk worked nancial institutions, regulators and at the International Energy Agency governments in Austria, Brazil, Britain, in Paris. Her work focused mainly France, Greece, Holland, Italy, Norway, on natural gas policies in the IEA the Philippines, Poland, Russia, member countries, but also included Sweden, and Turkey. In 2006, he was China and Latin America. Dr Honoré appointed Commercial Advisor to holds a PhD in Economics, a MA in South Hook Gas to assist them through Environmental and Natural Resources the long commissioning phase of their Economics, and a LLM in International world-leading LNG import facility Administration (public law). in south Wales; this was successfully achieved in Q4-2009. Prior to that he Laura El-Katiri, Research Fellow, was Trading Manager at BG Group joined the OIES in October 2009. She is from 2002 to 2004 and before that he a Teaching Fellow in the Department of worked at PowerGen plc, where he Financial and Management Studies at set up their trading capability and the School of Oriental African Studies, managed the gas and power trading University of London. Her research desks. Patrick has over 30 years’ focuses on energy and economic policy experience of broking, trading, and in the Middle East, with particular risk management in the natural gas, focus on the Gulf economies (the GCC power, oil, and oil products markets. countries, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen). She has published for the UNDP, James Henderson, Senior Research the IEA, and AFED, including on Fellow, has been analysing the Russian the management of natural resource oil and gas industry for the past 15 wealth; energy sustainability oil- years. Having been Head of Energy led development strategies; energy for Wood Mackenzie Consultants in pricing policies in the Arab world the mid-1990s, he moved to Moscow and resource-rich economies; as Head of Oil & Gas Research for MENA oil and natural gas market Renaissance Capital in 1997, and in development; and energy poverty 1999 became their Head of Equity in the MENA region and developing Research. He returned to the UK in economies. She is also occasional co- 2002 and is currently Head of Russia editor of the Oxford Energy Forum. for Lambert Energy Advisory in London. He completed his doctoral Malcolm Keay, Senior Research thesis on partnership in the Russian oil Fellow, joined the OIES in January and gas industry at the University of 2005. His career has ranged widely London, and received his PhD in 2010. across the energy scene, including the public sector (he was Director of Anouk Honoré, Senior Research Energy Policy at the UK DTI from Fellow, joined the OIES in 2004. She 1996 to 1999, and before that was a works in the Natural Gas Research Division Head at the International Programme. She is an expert on the Energy Agency), the private sector European region, focusing on natural (as Senior Managing Consultant at gas issues, power generation, energy Oxera), and the non-pro t sector (at policies, market fundamentals (with Chatham House and the World Coal an emphasis on natural gas demand), Institute). He has acted as an adviser Lique ed Natural Gas (LNG), and on many energy studies, including security of gas supplies. She also as Special Adviser to the House of
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Lords Committee Inquiry into Energy complex integrated energy projects, Security in Europe, and Director of negotiations at government level, and the Energy and Climate Change Study in the management of joint ventures. for the World Energy Council. His While with Shell, he worked in research focuses on the implications Malaysia and the Netherlands and of electricity market liberalization for travelled extensively to Oman and the achievement of key energy policy Asia. He was a key member of the team objectives, particularly in relation that closed a major LNG project in to the environment. He contributed the Middle East. He is an experienced the chapter entitled ‘Can the Market commercial manager with hands-on Deliver Security and Environmental experience of developing and closing Protection in Electricity Generation?’ commercial gas transactions as well to UK Energy Policy and the End of as developing business strategy. Market Fundamentalism by Ian Rutledge From 2000 to 2005, as Director of and Philip Wrights (eds.) published Consulting, then Managing Director in 2011 by Oxford University Press of the Gas Strategies Group (formally for the OIES. This updates the EconoMatters Ltd), David worked on analysis and conclusions of his earlier and managed LNG and gas consulting monograph The Dynamics of Power to assignments around the world. He has argue that governments have failed a degree in Economics and Geography to develop policies which will enable from the University of Exeter, UK. He them to meet their environmental joined the Institute in November 2007. targets in the context of liberalized markets, and that more interventionist Robert Mabro, CBE, Honorary approaches would be needed. President, was Director of the OIES until April 2003. He is an Emeritus David Ledesma, Research Fellow, is an Fellow of St Antony’s College, a Fellow independent gas and LNG consultant of St Catherine’s College, and a lay focusing on gas and LNG strategy director on the board of ICE Futures, along the value chain including the oil futures exchange in London. He the structuring of commercial is also the Dean of the Oxford Energy arrangements, nancing, and markets Seminar and the Honorary Secretary for pipeline gas and LNG projects. He of the Oxford Energy Policy Club. In has contributed chapters to some of November 2005 Robert Mabro stepped the Institute’s books: Natural Gas in down as President of the Institute. The Asia published in June 2008, Natural Board of Governors appointed him Gas in the Middle East and North Africa Honorary President in November 2006. published in May 2011, and the Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas published Lavan Mahadeva, Senior Research in November 2012. In July 2009 he Fellow, joined the Institute in August published a paper ‘The Changing 2011. He heads up macroeconomic Relationship between NOCs and IOCs research at the Oxford Institute for in the LNG Chain’ and in March 2013 Energy Studies. He is concerned with the paper ‘East Africa Gas – Potential the interaction of energy markets with for Export’. David also contributed the macroeconomy and international the chapter ‘Project Financing LNG nance. He is working on what Projects’ to The Principles of Project constitutes good macroeconomic Finance, a book on project nancing policy in energy exporting countries which was published by Gower and whether global nancial market Publishing in April 2012. David conditions affect energy prices. Prior to also gives numerous commercial joining the Institute, Lavan Mahadeva training courses on gas and LNG in was a Bank of England economist for the UK and overseas, writes on gas 16 years. He began by modelling and and LNG, and presents regularly forecasting the UK economy. He then at conferences. During 30 years in joined the Bank’s Centre for Central the energy and utility sector David Banking Studies and worked with has worked on the development of other central banks in Africa, central
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and eastern Europe and Latin America of Language and of Science, and in constructing their monetary policy was formerly a Research Fellow at strategies. His remit was to develop Wolfson College and a Lecturer in models to guide policy in challenging Logic at the Queen’s College, Oxford. environments. He was an adviser He has a Diploma in Mathematics to the Bank of England Monetary from the Eidgenössische Technische Policy Committee 2005–6 and he Hochschule (ETH) in Zürich, spent 2007–9 with the Central Bank of Switzerland. He has also been an Colombia as Adviser to the Governor. expert reviewer of the Assessment Just before coming to the Institute, he Reports of the Intergovernmental worked on cross-sectional systemic Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). risk and international nance. Lavan has published on the transmission Keun-Wook Paik, Senior Research mechanism of monetary policy, Fellow, joined the OIES in January monetary policy frameworks, and 2007. He is a specialist on north-east interbank contagion. He co-produced Asia’s oil and gas issues, in particular an award winning book on Monetary Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation, Policy Frameworks in a Global China’s natural gas industry, and Context. Lavan has a BA from Trinity DPRK’s offshore oil exploration. College, Cambridge, an MSc from the Currently he is an Associate Fellow University of Warwick, and a PhD of the Energy, Environment and from the European University Institute Development Programme, Chatham House. He is the author of Gas and Oil Benito Müller, Director, Energy and in North-East Asia: Policies, Projects and Climate Change, joined the OIES in Prospects (London: Royal Institute of 1996. He is also Managing Director of International Affairs, 1995), and co- Oxford Climate Policy (a not-for-pro t author/supervisor of China Natural company aimed at capacity building Gas Report (China OGP, Xinhua News for developing country climate change Agency and RIIA, 1998). His new and negotiators) and Director of the comprehensive study on China’s gas European Capacity Building Initiative expansion ‘The Implications of China’s (ecbi), an international initiative Gas Expansion towards Natural Gas for sustained capacity building in Market in Asia’, was published by support of international climate Chatham House in 2004. Dr Paik has change negotiations. Dr Müller is a contributed well over 35 papers to Supernumerary Fellow of Wolfson Energy Policy, Journal of Energy and College, Oxford and a member of the Development, Geopolitics of Energy, Philosophy Faculty of the University The Paci c Review, Energy Exploration of Oxford. He is Senior Research & Exploitation, Oil & Gas Journal, Associate of Queen Elizabeth House, Petroleum Economist, Pipeline and Gas the University of Oxford’s International Technology, FT Asia Gas Report, China Development Centre, and an Associate Daily Business Weekly, China Brief, The Fellow of its Environmental Change World Today, RIIA Brie ng papers, and Institute. He is on the board of directors Asia–Paci c Review. He contributed of the Stockholm Environment Institute the Korea Gas Industry chapter for (Oxford) and of Climate Strategies, the OIES book Natural Gas in Asia: the a London-based academic network Challenges of Growth in China, India, organization focused on developing Japan and Korea, 2nd Edition published and delivering research to meet the in 2008. His book Sino-Russian Oil needs of international climate change and Gas Cooperation – The Reality policymaking. He was also a Specialist and Implications, Oxford University Adviser on Climate Change to the Press, was published in 2012. International Development Committee of the UK House of Commons. Dr Simon Pirani, Senior Research Fellow Müller received his doctorate (DPhil) on the Natural Gas Programme, joined in Philosophy from the University of the Institute in September 2007. His Oxford, specializing in Philosophy research focuses on the development
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of natural gas markets, and changing David Robinson, Senior Research consumption patterns, in the former Fellow, joined the Institute in July Soviet Union. He was editor of Russian 2007. He is a consulting economist and CIS Gas Markets and their Impact on who advises on public policy and Europe (OUP, 2009), author or co-author corporate strategy, especially in of OIES publications on the Ukrainian relation to energy and climate change. gas sector and Russo-Ukrainian gas He is an Academic Adviser to The relationships, and author of OIES Brattle Group of consultants, and was working papers including ‘Elusive previously a Director of NERA, where Potential: Natural Gas Consumption he was the co-Chair of European in the CIS and the Quest for Ef ciency’ Operations and of the Global Energy (2011) and ‘Central Asian and Caspian and Telecom Practices. He also Gas Production and the Constraints worked at the International Energy on Export’ (2012). He studied Agency (IEA) and wrote his doctoral Russian at the University of London, dissertation at the University of Oxford wrote a doctoral dissertation at the on the vertical disintegration of the University of Essex, and is the author international petroleum industry. of The Russian Revolution in Retreat (Routledge, 2008) and Change in Putin’s Howard Rogers, Director, Natural Russia: Power, Money and People (Pluto, Gas Research Programme, joined the 2009). Prior to joining the Institute Institute in January 2009 after a long he worked as a journalist, writing career in BP in upstream oil and gas about the Russian and Ukrainian business development and strategy, economies for nancial and industry including postings to the USA, Kuwait, publications. Since 2012 he has been and Azerbaijan. His last post in BP teaching Russian and Soviet history at was Head of Fundamental Analysis, Canterbury Christ Church University. Global Gas. In 2010 he published an OIES research paper ‘LNG Trade- John Rhys, Senior Research Fellow, ows in the Atlantic Basin: Trends and joined the OIES in March 2010, having Discontinuities’ on the subject of LNG been one of its senior research advisers. arbitrage between the regional markets He obtained an Honours degree in of Asia, Europe, and North America, Mathematics while at Jesus College, based on a quantitative modelling Oxford, and later obtained his PhD framework. With Jonathan Stern he in economics at the London School co-authored a paper on the transition of Economics. He is a former Chief to hub-based gas pricing in continental Economist, Electricity Council, and a Europe in 2011. He published a paper former Managing Director of NERA ‘The Impact of Import Dependency UK Economic Consulting, where he and Wind generation on UK Gas was intimately involved in a number Demand and Security of Supply of UK energy sector privatizations. to 2025’ in 2011 and in early 2012 a As Director of NERA’s international paper ‘The Impact of a Globalizing energy team he worked extensively Market on Future European Gas on energy sector reform projects Supply and Pricing: The Importance of worldwide with the World Bank, other Asian Demand and North American development agencies, and national Supply’. His contribution to the book governments. He continues to have The Pricing of Internationally Traded economic and energy consulting Gas was as co-author of Chapter interests, is a Non-Executive Director four and author of Chapter 12. of an NHS Hospital Trust, and a Visiting Fellow at the University of Anupama Sen, Senior Research Fellow, Sussex, Energy Group. His current joined the Institute in October 2009 interests include energy policy in to work on the economics of energy relation to climate change, on which in India. She holds a BA (Hons) subject he has given written and oral in Economics from the University evidence to the Environmental Audit of Mumbai, an MSc in Economic Committee of the House of Commons. Development from the London School
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of Economics, and a PhD from the issues in connection with his work University of Cambridge where she as EU Speaker for the EU–Russia was a Cambridge Nehru Scholar. Gas Advisory Council, a body set Her areas of expertise include policy up by EU Energy Commissioner on pricing, taxation, and regulation Oettinger and Russian Energy Minister of oil, gas, and electricity in India, Shmatko to assess future trends in with extensions to other developing the gas sector in order to reduce economies, and she has carried out risks and to exploit opportunities extensive publication and eldwork in in EU–Russia gas cooperation. India in relation to her research. Her current work focuses on gas pricing, Katja Ya mava, Research Fellow, electricity market reform, auctions joined the Institute in November 2006 for the allocation of energy resources to work in the Natural Gas Research in India, and the scal regime for Programme. She holds a DPhil in exploration. Anupama is a Fellow Geography and an MPhil in Russian of the Cambridge Commonwealth and East European Studies from the Society and a Visiting Fellow at University of Oxford (Corpus Christi Wolfson College, Cambridge. She College). The topic of her doctorate is also a Region Head on the Asia thesis was ‘The Importance of Russian Paci c desk at Oxford Analytica. Gas Transit across Western CIS Countries for EU Energy Security, Jonathan Stern, Chairman of the 1998–2007’. Her book The Transit Natural Gas Programme and Senior Dimension of EU Energy Security: Research Fellow, is also Honorary Russian Gas Transit Across Ukraine, Professor at the Centre for Energy, Belarus, and Moldova was published Petroleum & Mineral Law & Policy, by OUP in 2011. She has co-authored University of Dundee; Visiting a chapter on CIS gas pricing for The Professor at Imperial College’s Centre Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas for Environmental Policy in London; edited by Jonathan Stern and published part time BP Professor at the Moscow by OUP in 2012. She authored a School of Management’s Energy Centre chapter on the Belarusian gas market at Skolkovo; Fellow of the Energy Delta and co-authored a chapter on Moldova Institute; and a Member of the Board for Russian and CIS Gas Markets and of Advisers for the Center for Energy their Impact on Europe edited by Simon Economics, Bureau of Economic Pirani and published by OUP in Geology at University of Texas at February 2009. She also co-authored Austin. He is the author and editor a working paper on the January 2009 of several books, including: Natural Ukrainian gas crisis together with Gas in Asia: the challenges of growth Simon Pirani and Jonathan Stern. She in China, India, Japan and Korea, the published a working paper on the June second edition of which was published 2010 Russia–Belarus gas dispute, a by Oxford University Press in 2008; short version of which also appeared and co-editor with Bassam Fattouh of in Petroleum Review. She also reviewed Natural Gas Markets in the Middle East several papers for Journal of European and North Africa, published in 2011. Integration and The Energy Journal. During 2012, Jonathan Stern’s major She has also presented her work at research focused on gas pricing and various conferences (The Skolkovo resulted in the publication of his edited School of Management, Moscow; book on: The Pricing of Internationally SITE, Stockholm; CEU, Budapest). Her Traded Gas, published by Oxford book Post-Soviet Russian-Belarusian University Press in November 2012. Relationships: the Role of Gas Transit Following publication he organized Pipelines was published in March 2007. launches of the book in London, Milan, Prior to joining the Institute and in Moscow, Houston, and Tokyo. During parallel with her doctoral studies, she the year he continued to work on was an intern at Shell (2005) and at European gas pricing developments, the Energy Charter Secretariat (2006). and general Russian and CIS gas
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Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff, oil sector under Yeltsin, Putin, Research Fellow, is a Senior Associate and Medvedev to be published by Member at the Russian and Eurasian Oxford University Press in 2013. Studies Centre, St Antony’s College, University of Oxford. Dr Yenikeyeff Renfeng Zhao, Research Fellow, writes and presents on Russian- joined the OIES in 2007 to participate European energy relations, Russia and in a project on balanced clean OPEC, Caspian and Central Asian development in China. His work energy issues, and the development of focuses on China’s energy strategy Arctic hydrocarbons. His publications and development policies, and have appeared in a number of industry China’s energy diplomacy and its and academic journals. Among the geopolitical implications. Previously, latest of these is a book chapter ‘Oil he worked at China Daily as energy and the Corporate Re-Integration and nance correspondent from 1997 of Russia: The Role of Federal Oil to 2005. He holds a double master’s Companies in Russia’s Center– degree in Journalism and Global Periphery Relations’ in Douglas Studies from EU Erasmus Mundus Chalmers and Scott Mainwaring, (eds.), Programme. He was a Parvin/Freedom Problems Confronting Contemporary Forum Fellow at the University of Democracies, University of Notre Dame Hawaii and the East–West Center. Press, 2012 as well as a working paper ‘Governors, Oligarchs, and Siloviki: Oil The following staff contributed and Power in Russia’ (co-authored with to the work of the Institute Ahmed Mehdi) published in English, in 2012. Their dedication and French, and Russian by Institut professionalism was essential to français des relations internationals. its continued smooth running.
Other publications include: ‘Will • Lavinia Brandon provides Domestic Politics in the US and Russia administrative support and has Shape European Gas Markets?’, responsibility for managing and Huf ngton Post, 16 October 2012; ‘Putin maintaining the Institute’s excellent y las grandes empresas en 2012–2014: library. ¿de la inestable estabilidad a la estable inestabilidad?’, Vanguardia Dossier, • Jo Ilott provides administrative No.45, October 2012 (in Spanish); support for the Natural Gas ‘Privatisierungspläne, Machtkämpfe, Programme. Instabilität Russlands Ölindustrie in der Putin-Krise’, OSTEUROPA, • Margaret Ko is responsible for the No.6–8, September 2012, 163–178 (in Institute’s accounts. German); ‘Putin idet po puti El’tsina’, Slon.Ru, 14 June 2012 (in Russian); • Susan Millar manages the Oxford ‘Big business under threat in Putin’s Energy Policy Club and Oxford Russia?’, openDemocracy Russia, 23 Energy Seminar. May 2012; ‘Putin and Russia’s Big Business: From Unstable Stability to • Kate Teasdale is the Institute’s Stable Instability?’, The Globalist, 22 administrator. May 2012; ‘Putin vs. the Oligarchs’, International Policy Digest, Vol. 1, Issue IX, 3 June 2012, 17–19; ‘BP, Russian billionaires and the Kremlin: a Power Triangle that never was’, Oxford Energy Comment, November 2011.
Dr Yenikeyeff is also the author of The Battle for Russian Oil: Corporations, Regions, and the State, a forthcoming book on the politics of the Russian
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Visiting Research Fellows, Research Advisers, Contributing Authors, and Students
Ali Aissaoui, Senior Research Adviser, where he advised the company on is senior consultant at the Arab corporate strategy – which ultimately Petroleum Investments Corporation led to the sale of the company to (APICORP) where he previously held Tullow Oil in January 2013. Up to June the position of Head of Economics & 2012 he was also a Director of Impax Research. Before joining APICORP Environmental Markets plc, which he worked as senior research fellow invests in clean energy, waste, and at the OIES. Prior to that, he served water technologies. He worked as a as energy policy advisor to the Senior Fellow at the OIES from 2001 to Algerian government, while acting 2005; his research focused on all aspects as that country’s representative of mature oil and gas provinces, as on the OPEC Board of Governors. well as the corporate strategies of the At APICORP he has focused on major energy companies. He has a scrutinizing the corporation’s business strong background in all aspects of environment, and on framing its exploration and production and is strategy. Ali Aissaoui is author and recognized for his research into the co-author of books, chapters of upstream oil and gas industry. He books, and numerous analyses and worked as a geologist and economist critical reviews. Topics addressed with Royal Dutch Shell prior to include energy markets and prices, entering the City in 1991, where he investments and funding, as well as held senior positions as an oil and the political economy of the major gas equity analyst for 10 years. petroleum-exporting countries. His current thoughts and views are Aysegul Ates, Visiting Research Fellow, re ected in APICORP’s monthly visited the OIES from September Economic Commentary, which he to December 2012. She is Associate authors and edits. Ali Aissaoui is Professor, Akdeniz University, a member of several professional Department of Economics. Her associations, including the Oxford research focused on the futures market. Energy Policy Club, the Paris Energy Club, and the Arab Energy Club. Michael Bradshaw, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, joined the OIES Sofya Alterman, Contributing Author, in August 2008. He is currently is a Vice President with a private Professor of Human Geography in equity rm in New York where the Department of Geography at she has worked since 2003. Sofya’s the University of Leicester, UK. In contact with the Oxford Institute for January 2014 he will take up the Energy Studies began as part of her post of Professor of Global Energy research for a study on the Trends at Warwick Business School at the and Pricing Dynamics in LNG which University of Warwick. His PhD she undertook as part of her MBA at is from the University of British Harvard Business School in 2010. Columbia, Canada. His research is on resource geography, with a particular Robert Arnott, Senior Research focus on the economic geography of Adviser, is currently a Director on the Russia and global energy security. boards of Petroceltic International plc In 2007 he was awarded the Royal and Global Petroleum Ltd, having Geographical Society’s Back Award spent four years with Spring Energy for his applied research on economic
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change in post-socialist economies. and is its representative in the Middle Most recently his research has focused East. He is an experienced manager on energy-related issues. For more and researcher with a specialization in than a decade he has studied the natural resources and con ict. He has development of the Sakhalin oil and worked on community engagement gas projects in Russia’s Far East. This and stabilization initiatives in has led to research on energy security con ict zones in the Middle East, in north-east Asia. From 2008 to 2011 South Asia, and East Africa. As a he was engaged in a programme of manager, Andrew has coordinated research on Global Energy Dilemmas, teams of researchers and analysis of funded by a Leverhulme Trust Major primary data in Afghanistan, South Research Fellowship, that examined Sudan, Egypt, Kenya, Somaliland, the relationship between energy Lebanon. and Syria. As a researcher, security, globalization, and climate Andrew is experienced in conducting change. In October 2013 Polity Press primary research in Middle Eastern will publish his book entitled Global countries, having published on Energy Dilemmas. In January 2011 he natural gas markets in the Mashreq started a two-year research project (Levantine) region with the Oxford on global gas security funded by Institute for Energy Studies. the UK Energy Research Centre. He is Editor-in-Chief of Wiley- Ralf Dickel, Senior Visiting Research Blackwell’s Geography Compass, Co- Fellow. Since leaving the Energy Editor of European Urban and Regional Charter Secretariat in October Studies and Contributing Editor of 2010, Ralf Dickel has worked as an Eurasian Geography and Economics. independent expert on international In addition to his involvement in energy trade. In October 2004 Ralf OIES, he is an Honorary Senior Dickel joined the Energy Charter Research Fellow in the Centre for Secretariat as Director for Transit Russian and East European Studies and Trade, after heading the Energy at the University of Birmingham. Diversi cation Division at the International Energy Agency since Michael Xiaobao Chen, Visiting 2001, being responsible for Policy Research Fellow, is a Principal Analyst Analysis of Energy Markets and at Statoil where he works with global of Energy Market Reform. Before strategy and business development. joining the IEA he worked as Senior Michael started his career at the Specialist for Oil and Gas Policy for OECD as an economist, focusing his the World Bank, after a long career research on economic development with Ruhrgas from 1980 to 1998 where in China, and its global impacts. He he held various managing positions then joined the International Energy both in the gas purchase and the gas Agency, where he worked in the World sales departments. He managed and Energy Outlook’s long-term global co-authored several publications energy forecast team. Michael’s main at the IEA and the Energy Charter areas of expertise are: the Chinese Secretariat, amongst them: ‘Security energy economy and regulations, of Gas Supply in Open Markets’, the ASEAN energy market, global IEA 2004, and ‘Putting a Price on fossil fuel subsidies, and upstream Energy’, Energy Charter 2007. industry trends. Michael holds a BA in Economics from Lancaster John Enos, Visiting Research Fellow, University, an MSc in Economics is Emeritus Fellow in Economics from University College London, at Magdalen College, Oxford. He and an MSc in Development from joined the OIES in 1994 to carry out a the London School of Economics. study of improvements to oil re nery processing units in the previous half Andrew Cleary, Visiting Research century. He completed his research on Fellow, is a founding director of the uid catalytic cracking process, Integrity Research and Consultancy now published as Technical Progress
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and Pro ts: Process Improvements in Management and from Université Paris Petroleum Re ning. His current research XI with a Master in Business Law. focuses on the diffusion of innovations to large state-owned oil companies. Anastasios Giamouridis, Senior Visiting Research Fellow, has a Chris Le Fevre, Senior Visiting background in commercial oil and Research Fellow, joined the Institute gas and politics. He has recently in September 2012 and published a published his third paper with the working paper on gas storage in Great Gas Programme, having previously Britain in January 2013. He is presently published on security of gas supply working on a study of the potential in South Eastern Europe (2011) and for natural gas as a transportation on gas supply and demand prospects fuel in Europe. He has worked as an in Greece and Albania (2009). independent energy consultant since 2002, specializing in commercial, Agnia Grigas (née Baranauskaite), strategic, and regulatory issues in the Contributing Author, has a decade of natural gas sector with particular focus experience in business and academia on European and former Soviet Union working as a development and political markets. Chris has worked in the oil risk consultant for corporations and and gas industry for over 30 years. governments. She is the author of The He has held a variety of positions to Politics of Energy and Memory between executive director level in Transco the Baltic States and Russia (Ashgate plc (now National Grid Gas plc) and Publishing, forthcoming) and holds British Gas. In Transco he was the a PhD in international relations director responsible for implementing from the University of Oxford. the Network Code and the introduction of domestic competition. His roles Ieda Gomes, Senior Visiting Research in British Gas include establishing Fellow, is the director of Energix operations in a number of European Strategy Ltd, a consultancy specializing countries including Spain, the former in energy strategy, natural gas/LNG GDR, Hungary, and the Czech supply, pricing, and contracts, and Republic. Before British Gas he worked market fundamentals. With a career for Shell in exploration and production spanning 30 years in the gas and companies in the Netherlands and energy industry Ieda has spent more Malaysia. He is also a Region Head than 13 years with BP plc, where she at Oxford Analytica and was, until had senior positions, such as Vice 2011, on the Boards of the Northern President of New Ventures for South Ireland Utility Regulator and the South Asia and Middle East, President of BP Central Strategic Health Authority. Brasil, and Vice President of Regulatory Affairs for Gas & Power. Prior to BP Florence Gény, Visiting Research Ieda was the CEO of the S. Paulo Gas Fellow, works in business development Company (Comgas), the largest gas and strategy in international distribution company in Brazil. Ieda is exploration and production for currently a councillor at the Brazilian Statoil. Her main areas of expertise Chamber of Commerce in Great are upstream contracts ( scal Britain, a director at the Department regimes, production sharing, joint of Infrastructure of the S. Paulo operatorship) and commercial Federation of Industries, and a member structures, in particular in gas value of the Advisory Board of Comgas. Ieda chains, and energy industry trends. is an active member of International Her research currently focuses on Gas Union (IGU) having served in the unconventional gas in North America Executive Committee and as the Chair and Europe and impacts on gas of the Task Force on Building Strategic markets. She graduated from École Human Talent. She has presented des Hautes Etudes Commerciales in several energy conferences and (HEC) with a Master in Science of training courses, more recently at the World Gas Conference, and she is a
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member of the Programme Committee Researcher (Ministry of Science of LNG 17. She is a regular columnist and Innovation of Spain), Institut at the specialized magazine Brasil Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals Energia. Ieda has a degree in Chemical (IBEI), and holds a PhD in International Engineering and an MSc in Energy Relations, with European Mention, and Environmental Engineering. (Autonomous University of Barcelona, 2009). Her research at the OIES David Harbord, Contributing Author, focused on the European Union is Director of Market Analysis Ltd. and Global Energy Governance. She returned to Barcelona in May 2012. Marianne Haug, Senior Research Adviser, teaches Energy Policy and Paul Horsnell, Senior Research Sustainable Development at the Adviser, is a Managing Director and University of Hohenheim in Stuttgart, Head of Commodities Research at Germany and serves as Chair of the Barclays Capital, the investment Advisory Group on Energy for the banking division of Barclays Bank plc. European Commission in Brussels. He is responsible for Barclays Capital’s Following a career at the World research in global commodities Bank in Washington, DC, inter alia markets, covering energy, base as Director and Senior Advisor metals, precious metals, carbon, to the President, she served as and agricultural products. Barclays Director at the International Energy Capital has a team of commodities Agency (IEA) in Paris, 2001–5, and analysts based in London, New York, as Chairman of the Board of the San Francisco, and Singapore. Dr Forum für Zukunftsenergien in Horsnell joined Barclays Capital in Berlin, 2006–9. Her present research 2003 from JPMorgan where he was and advisory interests focus on the Head of Energy Research. Prior to innovation dynamics and growth that, he was Assistant Director for of clean energy within a rapidly Research at the OIES and a Research changing global economy. Fellow in Economics at Lincoln College, Oxford. He is the author of Elham Hassanzadeh, Student, is a Oil in Asia: Markets, Trading, Re ning PhD student at CEPMLP, University and Deregulation (OUP/OIES, 1997) of Dundee. Her multidisciplinary and (with Robert Mabro) Oil Markets research focuses on the export of and Prices: The Brent Market and the Iranian natural gas to regional and Formation of World Oil Prices (OUP/ international markets. Elham holds OIES, 1993). He holds a degree in an LLM degree from the University Philosophy, Politics, and Economics, of Cambridge where she was a and a doctorate in Economics, both Shell Centenary Scholar. She is a qu from Keble College, Oxford. ali ed barrister at the Iranian Central Bar and a consultant to the World Chikako Ishiguro, Contributing Bank and the International Institute Author, has experiences in broad for Sustainable Development. energy research and analysis activities. She is currently a member of the Charles Henderson CB, Senior Planning and Research Group within Research Adviser, is retired from the the Energy Resources & International Department of Trade and Industry Business Unit of Osaka Gas. where he was Head of the Energy Directorate. He is a former Chairman Alex Jacottet, Intern, joined the of TOTAL Oil’s business in the UK OIES in early 2012 for two months and a member of the Monopolies to work on research covering EU and Mergers Commission. initiatives to promote competition in its internal energy markets. He Anna Herranz, Visiting Research holds an MA in European Economic Fellow, joined the OIES in February Studies at the College of Europe in 2012. She is a Juan de la Cierva Bruges, Belgium. Part of his research
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was published as an OIES Energy Government of India to deal with Comment ‘Cross-border electricity education and governance. He is interconnections for a well functioning also a regular columnist writing EU Internal Electricity Market’. for several national newspapers.
Anil Jain, Senior Visiting Research Yelena Kalyuzhnova, Senior Visiting Fellow, is a member of the Indian Research Fellow, founded and is Administrative Service, the federal Director of the Centre for Euro- civil service of India. He holds a Asian Studies at the University of Bachelor’s Degree with Honours Reading, UK. She is an authoritative in Economics, and an MBA with expert on the economics of energy specialization in Marketing. He also and transition economies. Professor took a one-year Diploma programme Kalyuzhnova is the author of the rst at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, book in English about the economy New Delhi. He has over 25 years of of Kazakhstan. She is involved in administrative experience, both at collaborations on a wide range of eld and policy formulation levels. topics with a number of private He has held senior positions in the companies (BG Group, Burren Energy, provincial and federal governments in ChevronTexaco, Shell International) the Ministries of Agriculture, Mining, and international organizations such Industries, Revenue, and Petroleum & as UNECE, the World Bank, the IMF, Natural Gas. In separate assignments, and the EBRD. She has contributed he has been exposed to the differing to numerous economic studies for development-related issues faced international organizations (The by villages and by small and large World Bank, European Bank for industries. During the years 2003 to Reconstruction and Development, 2008, as Director and Joint Secretary in Economic Commission for Europe, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural United Nations, UNDP, etc.) and is a Gas of the Government of India, he frequent speaker at international level piloted the petroleum exploration and on economic, environmental, and international cooperation activities. energy issues. Professor Kalyuzhnova He has been closely associated with is an economic adviser to the All-Party the development of the natural gas Parliamentary Group on Kazakhstan, sector (including award of acreages, House of Commons, UK Parliament. development of discoveries, pricing, and distribution) and its deregulation. Lutz Kilian, Contrbuting Author, Presently, he is posted as Special is Professor of Economics in Commissioner at New Delhi, the the Department of Economics, national capital, where he promotes University of Michigan. the interests of the provincial State Government of Madhya Pradesh. Sandu-Daniel Kopp, Intern, visited the Institute in September 2012. Najeeb Jung, Senior Research Adviser, He is a PhD Student, Researcher, is Vice Chancellor, Jamia Millia Islamia Berlin Centre for Caspian Region University, New Delhi. He joined the Studies (BC CARE), Otto-Suhr- Indian Administrative Services (IAS) Institut für Politikwissenschaft. He in 1973 and has worked in different carried out research for his PhD, capacities in Madhya Pradesh and ‘The Emerging Global Gas Market with the Government of India. He and its Geopolitical Implications subsequently worked with the Asian for the European Security of Gas Development Bank (ADB). He is an Supply’, during his time in Oxford. expert on governance and energy, having worked in these areas with Aleksandar Kovacevic, Senior different governments, the public Visiting Research Fellow, started his sector, and the private sector. He is professional career with the Federal a member of several Committees/ Productivity Institute of the former Special Task Forces set up by the Yugoslavia in 1986. He graduated in
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energy economics at Belgrade University. He is After completing his Doctorate in Oxford in principal author of the energy–poverty analysis 1967, he worked brie y in the Physical Institute ‘Stuck in the Past’ (UNDP, 2004), co-author of the Academy of Sciences in Moscow, before of the Western Balkans energy policy survey spending periods at CERN and the Stanford (IEA/UNDP, 2008) and the Public Expenditure Linear Accelerator Center, after which he and Institutional Review (PEIR) for Serbia and returned to Oxford in 1984. Chris Llewellyn Montenegro (World Bank, 2003), and author Smith has written and spoken widely on science of a number of papers, lectures, and media funding, international scienti c collaboration, contributions. Over 20 years he has provided and energy issues. He has served on many strategic advice, complex energy ef ciency advisory bodies nationally and internationally, solutions, and emergency situation assistance including the UK Prime Minister’s Advisory to major institutional, nancial, and private Council on Science and Technology (1989–92). clients including assistance to UN OCHA to His scienti c contributions and leadership coordinate rapid reconstruction of the Serbian have been recognized by awards and honours energy infrastructure after the 1999 war. He was in seven countries on three continents. af liated to PlanEcon before 1992, project manager for Tagarnrog Development project in Russia Cyril Lin, Senior Research Adviser, is Founder (1992–8), and a contributor to the Black Sea and and Managing Director of IFG Development Central Asia panel at the Harriman Institute, Initiatives (IFGDI), an economics and corporate Columbia University. Aleksandar has been a advisory consultancy specializing in transition member of the Advisory Board to the Russian and emerging market economies. He received Power Conference since 2002, and of the UNECE his undergraduate and graduate training at Group of Experts in Sustainable Energy, as well MIT, Harvard University, and the University of as a regular consultant to the World Bank and Oxford. Until 2001, he was a University Lecturer contributor to the Oil and Gas Economy and Law in Economics at the University of Oxford, Director (OGEL) network. He won an Innovation Award of the Centre for Modern Chinese Studies, and at the Power-Gen Europe Conference in 2002. Fellow in Economics at St Antony’s College. He is a member of the team of international economists Nicholas Lancaster, Intern, visited the Institute formed by the China Economic Research and in September 2012 for three months. He is Advisory Programme (CERAP), a non-pro t body studying for a master’s degree in International undertaking economic policy research and advice Economic Policy at Sciences Po Paris. He worked for Chinese policymakers. In 2006 he initiated extensively with David Robinson on research the establishment of the Cairncross Memorial related to US energy and climate policy. Foundation, which aims to support international collaborative research between foreign and Chris Llewellyn Smith, Senior Research Chinese specialists concerning major Chinese Adviser, is a theoretical physicist. He is currently public policy issues, including Economics, Energy Director of Energy Research, Oxford University, and the Environment, Governance, and the Law. and President of the Council of SESAME (Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science Edwin R. Lim, Senior Research Adviser, was and its Applications in the Middle East). He educated at Princeton University (BA) and has served as Chairman of the Council of ITER Harvard University (PhD in Economics). He (2007–9) and of the Consultative Committee joined the World Bank in 1970 and in the following for Euratom on Fusion (2004–9), and was 30 years, was responsible for the Bank’s work Director of UKAEA Culham (2003–8), with in a number of developing countries, including responsibility for the UK’s fusion programme and Ghana, Nigeria, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, for operation of the Joint European Torus (JET). India, and China. In 1980, Dr Lim was a member While at Culham he developed and promoted of the management team of the World Bank that the ‘Fast Track’ development of fusion energy. conceived and directed the Bank’s programme He was Provost and President of University in China. He established the World Bank’s of ce College London (1999–2002), Director General in China and served as the rst Chief of Mission of CERN (1994–8), and Chairman of Oxford from 1985 to 1990. He returned to headquarters Physics (1987–92). During his mandate as DG in 1990 when he was appointed a Director, of CERN the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) with responsibility for Western Africa. In 1994, was approved and construction started. Dr Lim took two years external leave from the World Bank to set up China International Capital Corporation (CICC), China’s rst international
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investment bank, and served as CICC’s November 2007 he received a lifetime rst CEO. He returned to the World achievement award for research from Bank in 1996 and was appointed the King Abdullah at the opening of the rst Country Director to be stationed in Third OPEC Summit in Riyadh. He New Delhi, India. Since 2003, Dr Lim retired in 1993 from British Petroleum, has been directing the China Economic where his posts had included Research and Advisory Programme Special Adviser to the Managing which provides policy advice, pro Directors, Regional Co-ordinator bono, to the Chinese authorities. for BP’s subsidiaries in the Western Hemisphere, and head of BP’s Policy Joan MacNaughton, Senior Research Review Unit. Mitchell has written three Adviser, joined the OIES in September books: The New Economy of Oil (2001), 2006. She is an Honorary Fellow and Companies in a World of Con ict (editor, President of the Energy Institute, a 1998) both published by Chatham Senior Research Adviser at the Oxford House/Earthscan; and The New Institute for Energy Studies, a member Geopolitics of Energy (Chatham House of the International Advisory Board 1996). He was a contributor to Oil of the Energy Institute of University Titans by Valérie Marcel (Brookings/ College London; of the GCCSI’s Board Chatham House, 2006), and has written Selection Panel; and of the Board numerous reports, brie ng papers, of Governors, Argonne Laboratory and journal articles, including ‘More at the University of Chicago where for Asia: Rebalancing Global Oil she chairs the Budget Committee. And Gas’ (Chatham House 2010). She is a Companion of the Order of the Bath. From 2002, as Director Akira Miyamoto, Contributing General of Energy, Joan played a key Author, has been engaged in role in shaping UK energy policy. research and analysis activities on In that role she led a major change natural gas for over 20 years. He is programme and made a signi cant Executive Researcher assigned at the contribution to international energy Energy Resources & International policy, including overseeing the energy Business Unit of Osaka Gas. agenda during the UK Presidency of the EU and leading the work on Mitsuhiro Nakamura, Contributing the energy part of the climate change Author is a member of the LNG proposals agreed at the G8 Gleneagles Trading Department of Osaka Gas Summit. From 2004 to 2006, she and is engaged in negotiations was elected Chair of the Governing with LNG suppliers. Board of the International Energy Agency, leading a review of the IEA’s Shirin Narwani, Visiting Research strategy and leading the emergency Fellow, and Senior Member at St. response to the supply disruption Antony’s College, Oxford, joined caused by Hurricane Katrina. From the OIES in November 2011. She 2007 to 2011, Joan led Alstom’s has previously worked at OIES, the policy department and spearheaded Centre for Global Energy Studies Alstom’s clean power advocacy: to (CGES), and the Petroleum Economist. advance clean, sustainable energy She has a BA in Economics and an and reduce power generation carbon MPhil in Modern Middle East Studies dioxide emissions. Until December from the University of Oxford. She 2012 she acted as Global Adviser on has published on varied topics Sustainable Policies for the company. from oil markets to energy-related environmental issues, with a particular John Mitchell, Senior Research concentration on energy in the Middle Adviser, is an Associate Research East. Her professional activities Fellow at Chatham House and also focus on working with NGOs Honorary Fellow at the Centre for on projects in the Middle East. She Energy, Petroleum & Mineral Law & has produced an Iranian lm Ra’ye Policy at the University of Dundee. In Makh (The Secret Ballot) which won
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ten international awards including company and served as president at several at the 2001 Venice lm festival. Energy Intelligence (EI) in London. Her research at OIES focuses on Past positions include President energy sector issues in Iran; she has of Energy Intelligence in London, recently written a paper on Iran’s VP Global Strategy and Business energy subsidy reform programme Development and VP of Strategy for the Oxford Energy Forum. International Exploration & Production (E&P) at Statoil, head of oil supply Eduardo Pereira, Contributing Author, at the Organization of Petroleum has been active in the oil and gas Exporting Countries (Vienna), associate industry for over ve years; he is an vice president of oil and gas equity expert in Joint Operating Agreements. research at Merrill Lynch (London) His experience in this area is extensive, and exploration and operational both academic and practical. Dr geologist at BP (Venezuela, Norway, Pereira is Corporate Director of Petra and Egypt). He is currently active as a Energia and chief legal of cer and vice- Senior Research Advisor at the Oxford president of Petra BV and has played Institute for Energy Studies and as a a key role in assisting Petra Energia in member of the Oxford Energy Policy becoming the leading onshore oil & Club; co-founder, Board Member, and gas company in Brazil. He concluded lecturer of strategy at the Executive his doctoral thesis on oil and gas joint Energy MBA program at Vienna’s ventures at the University of Aberdeen Wirtschaftsuniversität (WU) in Austria; and received his PhD in 2011. member of the UNECE Expert Group on Resource Classi cation (Geneva); Beatrice Petrovich, Visiting Research and he was recently appointed as a Fellow, joined the Institute in trustee to the Energy Policy Research November 2012, after she conducted Foundation, Inc. (Washington, D.C.). research with the Oxford Institute for EPRINC is a non-pro t think tank, Energy Studies in August 2012 focusing established in 1944, which provides on European gas hubs. Beatrice is research and analysis of contemporary presently working on a study on petroleum issues. Ivan holds a BSc European gas hub price correlation in geology from Baylor University, that is due to be published in 2013. an MSc and MBA from Edinburgh Beatrice is currently based in Milan University, and attended the Berkley where she works as researcher and Executive Leadership Program. consultant at REF-E, a leading energy consultancy in Italy. Among other Paul Segal, Senior Visiting Research activities, she works for the REF-E Fellow, is also a Lecturer in Economics Energy Observatory, specializing in the at the University of Sussex. He works analysis of the natural gas market and on economic development, the energy regulation, and contributes to economics of resource-rich countries, the editing and writing of the Energy and the macroeconomics of oil Observatory monthly Newsletter. She prices. He completed his DPhil in holds an M.Sc. in Economics from the Economics at Nuf eld College, Oxford, University of Milan Bicocca and did in 2006, having previously been a a one-year exchange at the University consultant economist at the United of Glasgow. While at university, she Nations Development Programme collaborated on a research project in in New York, and a Research Fellow the eld of experimental economics. at Harvard University. He has been a visiting scholar at the National Alvaro Riascos, Contributing Bureau of Economic Research in Author, works for Quantil SAS. Cambridge, Massachusetts, and at the Centro de Investigación y Ivan Sandrea, Senior Research Docencia Económicas in Mexico City. Adviser, Ivan recently worked as a senior advisor to the president of Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Senior Research Brazil’s leading unconventional gas Adviser, currently serves as a senior
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adviser and consultant to a number numerous energy and economic think of public and private institutions, tanks and institutions around the organizations, and companies, world. He is an associate fellow of the including as member and adviser Institute for Research in Public Policy to Kuwait National Nuclear Energy in Montreal Canada, energy research Committee. In 2005 he served as strategy advisor to the University the Acting Secretary General of the of Calgary, and through his private Organization of Petroleum Exporting consultancy, Kimacal Energy Strategies Countries (OPEC) where he also served based in Calgary Canada consults for as Director of Research, from August industry, governments, and academic 2001 through March 2006. From March institutions in Canada and abroad. 1999 to August 2001 he served as Director of the Division for Africa, Paul Stevens, Senior Research Adviser, East Asia, and the Paci c, Department was educated as an economist and of Technical Cooperation, at the as a specialist on the Middle East at International Atomic Energy Agency Cambridge and the School of Oriental (IAEA) in Vienna, Austria. Prior to and African Studies; from 1973–9 he joining the IAEA, from December 1991 taught at the American University of to February 1999, he served as Director Beirut in Lebanon, interspersed with of the UNESCO Regional Of ce for two years as an oil consultant; from Science and Technology (Cairo) and 1979–93 he was a lecturer and senior as the UNESCO Representative in lecturer in economics at the University Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Prior of Surrey. From 1993 to 2008, he was to his career with international Professor of Petroleum Policy and organizations, he taught, lectured on, Economics at the Centre for Energy, undertook, and directed research in Petroleum & Mineral Law & Policy, the physical and engineering sciences University of Dundee, Scotland, a chair as well as in energy economics and created by BP. In January 2008 he was technology, at a number of universities appointed to an Emeritus Chair. He and research centres in Kuwait, the has now joined, on a part-time basis, USA, and Europe, including Kuwait Chatham House (The Royal Institute University, the Lawrence Berkeley for International affairs) in London National Laboratory, the University of as Senior Research Fellow (Energy). California at Berkeley, the European His role is to take over the energy Nuclear Research Center in Geneva, part of the Energy, Environment, Switzerland, and at the Energy and Development Programme. He and Environment Policy Center at has published extensively on energy Harvard University in Cambridge, economics, the international petroleum Massachusetts, USA. From 1976 to industry, economic development 1986 he was the Director General of the issues, and the political economy of the Kuwait Institute for Scienti c Research. Gulf. He also works as a consultant for many companies and governments. Ian Skeet, Senior Research Adviser, is a consultant to the OIES and former Philip Wright, Senior Research editor of Oxford Energy Forum. Adviser, is Honorary Professor of Energy Policy and Economics at the Robert Skinner, Senior Research University of Shef eld and a Fellow Adviser. Robert Skinner PhD is of the Institute of Energy. Over a Former Director of OIES and more than two decades his research, previously VP Oil Sands Total publications, consultancy, and teaching E&P Canada Ltd, Director of the have covered all the energy industries International Energy Agency’s Policy and the companies that operate in of ce, Assistant Deputy Minister them. As well as contributing a critical Energy (Canadian Government), perspective on the liberalization former Sr VP Strategy, Commercial of gas and electricity industries, and Government Affairs for Statoil his recent work has also addressed Canada, and has associations with the UK’s oil and gas scal regime.
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His views and expertise have been sought by government organizations, international organizations, companies, trade unions, and universities in Europe and Latin America. Fluent in French and Spanish, he has been a Visiting Professor at the University of Montpellier1 and at the University of Cartagena de Indias, Colombia. He currently works as an independent consultant and writer.
Ian Wybrew-Bond, Company Secretary and a Senior Research Adviser to the OIES. After a career in Shell, principally in its international natural gas business, he became a gas adviser to the OIES and co-edited and co-authored the publications Gas to Europe and Natural Gas in Asia. He was a non-executive director of Saipem and a Senior Associate with CERA for many years.
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Accounts AUDITORS’ STATEMENT ON SUMMARISED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2012
Independent Auditors Statement To The Members of Oxford Institute For Energy Studies We have examined the summary nancial statement for the year ended 31 December 2012. Respective responsibilities of trustees and auditors
The trustees are responsible for preparing the summary nancial statement in accordance with applicable United Kingdom law. Our responsibility is to report to you our opinion on the consistency of the summary nancial statement with the full annual nancial statements, and its compliance with the relevant requirements of section 427 of the Companies Act 2006 and the regulations made thereunder.
We conducted our work in accordance with Bulletin 2008/3 issued by the Auditing Practices Board. Our report on the charity’s full annual nancial statements describes the basis of our opinion on those nancial statements. Opinion
In our opinion the summary nancial statement is consistent with the full annual nancial statements of Oxford Institute for Energy Studies for the year ended 31 December 2012 and complies with the applicable requirements of section 427 of the Companies Act 2006, and the regulations made thereunder.
Jonathan Cross FCA (Senior Statutory Auditor) for and on behalf of Everett & Son Chartered Accountants & Statutory Auditors 35 Paul Street London EC2A 4UQ
9th May 2013
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31.12.12 31.12.11 Unrestricted Endowment Total Total funds funds funds funds as restated £ £ £ £ Incoming Resources Incoming resources from generated funds Voluntary income 473,366 - 473,366 583,937 Incoming resources from charitable activities 835,680 - 835,680 631,123 Incoming resources from investments Government Stocks - - - 1,374 International Bonds 4,314 - 4,314 4,012 Corporate Bonds 56,616 - 56,616 48,350 Quoted Securities 117,988 - 117,988 85,353 Deposit account interest 127 - 127 148 Other incoming resources 5,500 - 5,500 5,500 Total incoming resources 1,493,591 - 1,493,591 1,359,797 Resources Expended Costs of generating funds Costs of generating voluntary income 26,557 - 26,557 23,214 Charitable activities Projects and publications 1,602,609 - 1,602,609 1,443,398 Governance costs 55,500 - 55,500 53,129 Total resources expended 1,684,666 - 1,684,666 1,519,741 NET INCOMING/ (191,075) - (191,075) (159,944) (OUTGOING) RESOURCES Realised gain/(losses) on investment assets 221,783 - 221,783 65,898 Net income/(expenditure) 30,708 - 30,708 (94,046) Unrealised gains/losses on investment assets 130,150 132,330 481,890 (481,890) Net movement in funds 160,858 132,330 293,188 (575,936) RECONCILIATION OF FUNDS Total funds brought forward 2,328,889 3,149,994 5,478,883 6,054,819 TOTAL FUNDS CARRIED FORWARD 2,489,747 3,282,324 5,772,071 5,478,883
All incoming resources and resources expended arise from continuing activities.
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BALANCE SHEET AT 31 DECEMBER 2011 31.12.12 31.12.11 Unrestricted Endowment Total Total funds funds funds funds as restated £ £ £ £ FIXED ASSETS Tangible assets 28,429 - 28,429 48,085 Investments 2,224,666 3,282,324 5,506,990 5,106,079
2,253,095 3,282,324 5,535,419 5,154,164 CURRENT ASSETS Debtors 6,106 - 6,106 6,393 Prepayments and accrued income 201,549 - 201,549 186,639 Cash at bank and in hand 228,117 - 228,117 258,058
435,772 - 435,772 451,090 CREDITORS Amounts falling due within one year (124,120) - (124,120) (126,371)
NET CURRENT ASSETS 311,652 - 311,652 324,719
TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 2,564,747 3,282,324 5,847,071 5,478,883
NET ASSETS 2,489,747 3,282,324 5,772,071 5,478,883
FUNDS Unrestricted funds 2,489,747 2,328,889 Endowment funds 3,282,324 3,149,994
TOTAL FUNDS 5,772,071 5,478,883
The nancial statements were approved by the Board of Trustees on 9th May 2013 and were signed on its behalf by:
A. Lajous – Trustee Prof. R. Ainsworth – Trustee
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Members The University of Oxford
St Antony’s College, Oxford
St Catherine’s College, Oxford
Nuf eld College, Oxford
Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)
Swedish Energy Agency
Institut Français du Pétrole
Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (UK)
Arab Banking Corporation
Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo
Rogalandsforskning, Norway
Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia
Canadian Petroleum Studies Inc.
The State of Kuwait
The OIES is registered as a company limited by guarantee (without share capital). It is also a registered charity that operates as a non-pro t educational organization. It is conceived as an association of various Members, who may be divided into two groups. On the one hand are the University of Oxford and three of its colleges; on the other hand is a selection of governments, public institutions, and international and regional organizations, from oil-producing and oil- consuming countries. With the exception of the University and its colleges, each Member has made a once-and-for-all nancial contribution. These sums are treated as an endowment, providing for the long-term security of the OIES. All Members of the Institute have the following rights:
• to appoint one or several representatives on the Board of Governors. This gives the Member an active part in the management and supervision of the Institute since the Board is the body empowered with all executive functions;
• to attend the Annual General Meeting of the Institute;
• to enter into any form of cooperation with the Institute that is approved by the Board of Governors, such as the organization of joint seminars, joint research projects, or exchange visits between scholars of the Institute and scholars from the member countries.
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Governors and Trustees Mr Adrián Lajous Chairman of the Board
Dr Christopher Adam Fellow, St Cross College, Oxford
Professor Roger Ainsworth Master, St Catherine’s College, Oxford, Vice Chairman of the Board
Mr Daniel Champlon Director, International Relations, IFP
Energies Nouvelles, France (appointed January 2012)
Dr Steven Fries Chief Economist, Dept. of Energy & Climate Change, London (appointed February 2012)
Mr Haitham Al Ghais Manager, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, London
Dr Ian Goldin Director, Oxford Martin School, Oxford
Professor Roger Goodman Head, Social Sciences Divisional Of ce, Oxford
Dr Abdullah Al-Kuwaiz Vice Chairman of the Board, OAPEC
Mr Rolf Magne Larsen Senior Vice President, Statoil, Norway
Professor Margaret Macmillan Warden, St Antony’s College, Oxford
Mr Rasheed Mohammed Al-Maraj Governor, Central Bank of Bahrain
Dr Anwar Ali Al-Mudhaf CEO, Al Razzi Holding KSCC
Dr Masahisa Naitoh Former Chairman and CEO, The Institute
of Energy Economics, Japan (resigned April 2012)
Mr Abbas Ali Naqi Secretary General, OAPEC
HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud Assistant Minister for Petroleum
Affairs, Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia
Dr Juan Jose Suarez Coppel Director General, PEMEX, Mexico
Mr Nader Sultan Director, the Oxford Energy Seminar
Mr Jay Thornton Executive Vice President – Energy Supply, Trading and
Development, Suncor Energy, Canada (resigned January 2012)
Mr Masakazu Toyoda Chairman & CEO, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (appointed April 2012)
Mr Christopher Smith Senior Vice President – Supply, Trading and Corporate
Development, Suncor Energy, Canada (appointed January 2012)
Mr Paul Westin Energy Analysis Dept., Swedish Energy Agency
Mr Laurence Whitehead Fellow, Nuf eld College, Oxford
The Honorary President is Robert Mabro
The Company Secretary is Ian Wybrew-Bond
The auditors are Messrs Everett & Son, of 35 Paul Street, London EC2
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Contributors Membership Contributions OAPEC Energiforskningsnämnden Institut Français du Pétrole UK Department of Energy European Union Arab Banking Corporation Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo Rogalandsforskning Government of Kuwait Government of Saudi Arabia Canadian Petroleum Studies Inc. Inauguration Gifts 1983 Ashland Oil Atlantic Rich eld Barclays Britoil Chemical Bank Citicorp Conoco Elf Aquitaine ENI/AGIP Foster Wheeler Fuji Oil Gelsenberg General Electric (USA) International Energy Development Corporation INA Universal Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica Japan National Oil Corporation Kernforschungsanlage Julich Marathon Maraven Mobil Morgan Stanley Nomura Research Institute Olayan Group Petrobras Petróleos de Venezuela
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Petronas Phillips Qatar General Petroleum Corporation Ruhrgas Shell International Shell Oil (USA) Sohio Sumitomo Metal Industries Texaco Texas Eastern Tonen Corporation
Current Benefactors Al Njoo Foundation Bahrain Petroleum BP plc Cairn Energy India Cheniere Chevron Corporation ConocoPhilips Co. Deloitte LLP ENI ExxonMobil Corporation Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) Marathon Petroleum LLC Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Mitsui & Company Olayan Europe Ltd Petrobras PDV Europa BV Reliance Europe Ltd Repsol YPF Shell International Schlumberger Organizacion Techint Oxford Economics TOTAL S.A.
Past Benefactors Amerada Hess ARCO (Atlantic Rich eld) Arthur Andersen Ashland Oil British Gas
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Cosmo Oil Ministry of Petroleum, Norway Dubai Aluminium National Grid Transco EnCana Corporation Petoro Energy Intelligence Shell ENI StatoilHydro Enterprise Oil TOTAL Foster Wheeler Int’l Corp Vattenfall Gulf International Bank Halliburton Company Past Sponsors of the Natural HSBC Investment Bank plc Gas Research Programme JP Morgan Chase Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. Kansai Electric Power Co, Inc. JKX Oil & Gas Marathon Ashland Nigerian National Petroleum McKinsey & Co, Inc. Corporation Morgan Stanley Marathon Oil Murphy Oil Corporation Qatar Petroleum Neste Oil OYJ RWE Supply & Trading Osaka Gas Sponsor of the Colombia Phillips Petroleum Project (2011–2012) Royal Ministry of Petroleum Foreign & Commonwealth Of ce, UK and Energy, Norway Schroder Salomon Smith Sponsors of the China Barney (Citigroup) Project (2008) Sun Company Talisman Energy Inc. Climate Strategies/DFID Tokyo Electric Power Company Swedish Energy Administration Tonen Corporation Sponsor of the Synergy TNK–BP Project (2003) Tyumen Oil European Union
Sponsors of the Natural Sponsor of the Cost Bene t Gas Research Programme Analysis of the Energy Supply BG Group Security Policy (2003) BP Gas Marketing CPB Netherlands Bureau for Centrica Economic Policy Analysis Cheniere Energy Sponsor of the Saudi Chevron Products Research Project (2003) Dong Energy Saudi Petroleum Overseas, Ltd E.ON Ruhrgas Electricité de France Energy Delta Institute ENI GDF Suez Gazprom Marketing and Trading Iberdrola
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Sponsor of the Framing of CEPSA Future Emission Limitation Deminex Commitments: A Pilot Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Study on the Evolution of the Mobil Sales & Supply UNFCCC Greenhouse Gas Saudi Aramco Sonatrach Mitigation Regime (2003) TOTAL Swiss Agency for the Environment, Veba Oel AG Forests and Landscape Additional Sponsors Additional Sponsors of of the US Gulf Oil the CFD Project (1995) Market Study (2000) CEPSA Ashland International Ltd Esso Petroleum Equiva Trading Co. IPE Koch Industries Mobil Kuwait Petroleum Corporation OK Petroleum McKinsey Veba Oel AG Morgan Stanley Additional Sponsors of the PMI Comercio Internacional (Pemex) Oil in Asia Project (1994) Saudi Aramco Apicorp Taurus Petroleum Services Ltd Bahrain National Oil Company TotalFinaElf Exxon Sponsor of the Kyoto Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Protocol and Oil Ministry of Energy and Industry, Qatar Markets Study (1999) Mobil Morgan Stanley Royal Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway Pemex Petron Additional Sponsors Saudi Aramco of the European Gas Statoil Markets Study (1998) BP Amoco Gas Additional Sponsors of the Iberdrola Brent Market Study (1991) In Salah Gas European Union Nera International Energy Agency Statoil Mobil TOTAL ÖMV AG OPEC Additional Sponsors of Pemex the Mediterranean Oil Petro-Canada Market Study (1997) Statoil Anadarko Petroleum Corporation UK Department of Trade & Industry Atlantic Rich eld BHP Petroleum
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Sponsors of the Oil Product Pemex Prices Study (1988) Petromin Qatar General Petroleum Corporation Britoil Royal Ministry of Petroleum European Union and Energy, Norway Exxon Shell Oil (USA) Kuwait Petroleum International Shell UK Mobil Statoil Ruhrgas Sun Statoil Svenska Petroleum Texaco UK Department of Energy Veba Oel AG Veba Oel AG Sponsors of the Gas Development in LDCs Grants Study (1986) Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development Arab Banking Corporation Barrows British Gas/UK Department of Energy Bahrain Monetary Agency British Petroleum Burmah Petroleum Fuels Ltd Dubai Aluminium European Union Elf Aquitaine ESRC ENI/AGIP GCC European Union Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Exxon Mr Ali Jaidah Foster Wheeler Kuwait Petroleum International Gaz de France Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia OPEC Fund Morgan Stanley Petro-Canada OAPEC Ruhrgas OPEC Fund for International Shell International Development Statoil Oxford Energy Seminar US Department of Energy Mr Abdul Mohsen Qattan World Bank The State of Qatar Shell Foundation for Sponsors of the North Sustainable Development Sea Study (1984) The United Nations Amerada Hess The World Bank Apicorp British Petroleum Britoil Elf Aquitaine Esso Europe European Union Mobil OPEC Secretariat
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Recent Publications Recent publications can be obtained by contacting the OIES directly. A complete list of publications and secure online purchasing are available on the Institute’s website at www.oxfordenergy.org Books: Published by Oxford University Press for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas (OIES 42) by Jonathan Stern (ed.), 2012 Sino-Russian Oil and Gas Coooperation – The Reality and Implications (OIES 41) by Keun-Wook Paik, 2012 Natural Gas in India: Liberalisation and Policy (OIES 40) by Anil K Jain, 2012 Monographs and Working Papers: Published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Private Investment in Wind Power in Colombia (SP 27) by David Robinson, David Harbord, Alvaro Riascos, 2012 The Energiewende – Germany’s gamble (SP 26) by David Buchan, 2012 Optimal scal policy in the face of oil windfalls and other known unknowns (SP 26) by Lavan Mahadeva, 2012 How to Spend It: Resource Wealth and the Distribution of Resource Rents (SP 25) by Paul Segal, 2012 Assessing the Financialization Hypothesis (WPM 49) by Bassam Fattouh and Lavan Mahadeva, 2012 The Impact of Russia’s Re nery Upgrade Plans on Global Fuel Oil Markets (WPM 48) by Bassam Fattouh and James Henderson, 2012 Protection against Default in Long Term Petroleum Joint Ventures (WPM 47) by Eduardo Pereira, 2012 Fiscal Policy and Natural Resource Entitlements: Who Bene ts from Mexican Oil? (WPM 46) by Paul Segal, 2012 The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far? (WPM 45) by Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian and Lavan Mahadeva, 2012 Rosneft – On the Road to Global NOC Status? (WPM 44) by James Henderson, 2012 Decarbonization of the electricity industry – is there still a place for markets? (EL 9) by Malcol Keay, John Rhys, and David Robinson, 2012 East Mediterranean Gas – what kind of a game-changer? (NG 71) by Hakim Darbouche, Bassam Fattouh, and Laura El-Katiri, 2012 Perspectives for Biogas in Europe (NG 70) by Floris van Foreest, 2012 Central Asian and Caspian Gas Production and the Constraints on Export (NG 69) by Simon Pirani, 2012 The Potential Impact of North American LNG Exports (NG 68) by James Henderson, 2012 The Gas Relationship between the Baltic States and Russia (NG 67) – politics and commercial realities by Agnia Grigas, 2012
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Gas with CCS in the UK – Waiting for Godot? (NG 66) by Howard Rogers, 2012 The Offshore Discovery in the Republic of Cyprus – (NG 65) Monetisation Prospects and Challenges by Anastasios Giamouridis, 2012 Issues in the pricing of domestic and internationally-traded gas (NG 64) in MENA and sub-Saharan Africa by Hakim Darbouche, 2012 Continental European Gas Hubs: Are They Fit for Purpose? (NG 63) by Patrick Heather, 2012 A realistic perspective on Japan’s LNG Demand after Fukushima (NG 62) by Akira Miyamoto, Misuhiro Nakamura, and Chikako Ishiguro, 2012 Will There be a Shale Gas Revolution in China by 2020? (NG 61) by Fan Gao, 2012 Natural Gas Price Volatility in the UK and North America (NG 60) by Sofya Alterman, 2012 The Impact of a Globalising Market on Future European Gas Supply and Pricing: (NG 59) the Importance of Asian Demand and North American Supply by Howard Rogers, 2012 Other published journal articles, books and book chapters Fattouh, Bassam & El-Katiri, Laura: ‘Energy and Arab Economic Development’, UNDP Arab Human Development Report, Research Paper Series, 2012. Fattouh, Bassam & El-Katiri, Laura: ‘Energy Subsidies in the Arab World’, UNDP, Arab Human Development Report, Research Paper Series, 2012. Gomes, Ieda; Kenyon, Rod; Kohli, Manu; Popescu, Marius & Soupa, Olivier: ‘Building Strategic Human Capital in the Gas Industry, Task Force Report’, International Gas Union, March 2012. Gomes, Ieda: ‘Gás natural volta a brilhar em 2012’, Brasil Energia, June 2012. Gomes, Ieda: ‘A matriz de gás natural no Brasil e no mundo, contrastes e paradigmas’, Brasil Energia, September 2012. Ledesma, David: ‘Project Financing of LNG Projects’, Chapter 16 of The Principles of Project Finance, Rod Morrison (Ed), Gower Publishing, April 2012. Mahadeva, Lavan: ‘Why Can Natural Resource Abundance Make Things Worse? – Limited Financial Development or Political Impatience?’ (10 September 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/ abstract=2144077 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2144077 Müller, Benito; Ghosh,Arunabha; Pizer, William; and Wagner, Gernot: ‘Mobilizing the Private Sector: Quantity–Performance Instruments for Public Climate Funds’, Oxford Energy and Environment Brief August 2012. Also published by the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, USA as a Duke Environmental Economics Working Paper, and as an Environmental Defense Fund White Paper. Müller, Benito; Sharma, Anju and Observers and the Green Climate Fund: OIES Submission in response to the initial consultation by the Interim Secretariat of the GCF on observer participation in the proceedings of the Board of the GCF. March 2012. Müller, Benito: ‘From Confrontation to Collaboration?: CBDR and the EU ETS aviation dispute with developing countries’, OIES Brief February 2012. Also published in Environmental Liability; www. lawtext.com: from Vol 19, no.6. Pirani, Simon: ‘Russo-Ukrainian Gas Wars and the Call on Transit Governance’, in Caroline Kuzemko, Andrei Belyi, Andreas Goldthau, and Michael Keating (eds.), Dynamics of Energy Governance in Europe and Russia, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012. Sen, A and Jamasb, T: ‘Diversity in Unity: An Empirical Analysis of the Economic Effects of Electricity Deregulation in Indian States’, The Energy Journal, 33(1), 2012, 83–120.
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Sen, A: ‘India’, in Upstream Law and Regulation – A Global Handbook; Pereira, E. and Talus, K. (eds); Globe Law and Business; forthcoming, April 2013. Sen, A and Jamasb, T:‘Not Seeing the Wood for the Trees? Electricity Market Reform in India’ in Evolution of Global Electricity Markets: New Paradigms, New Challenges, New Approaches, Sioshansi, F.P. (ed); Elsevier Global Energy Policy and Economics Series; forthcoming, June 2013. Segal, Paul: ‘Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend as a Model for Reducing Global Poverty’, in Karl Widerquist and Michael W. Howard (eds.), Exporting the Alaska Model: Adapting the Permanent Fund Dividend for Reform around the World, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, 109–22.
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Oxford Inst Energy Studies Annual Report 2012.indd 64 12/10/13 8:10 AM The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies 57 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6FA, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1865 311377, Fax: +44 (0)1865 310527, General enquiries: [email protected] Web: www.oxfordenergy.org Registered charity No. 286084
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