Now for the Long Term The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations 1 2 Now for the Long Term The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations October 2013 Members of the Commission: Chair: Pascal Lamy, former Director-General, Luiz Felipe Lampreia, former Minister of Peter Piot (Baron Piot), Director, London World Trade Organization Foreign Affairs, Brazil School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; former Executive Director, UNAIDS Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile; Liu He, Minister, Office of the Central Leading former Executive Director, UN Women Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, Martin Rees (Lord Rees of Ludlow), former People’s Republic of China President, The Royal Society; Fellow of Trinity Lionel Barber, Editor, The Financial Times College, University of Cambridge Kishore Mahbubani, Dean and Professor in the Roland Berger, Chairman, Roland Berger Practice of Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate and Thomas W. Strategy Consultants of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Lamont University Professor, and Professor of Economics and Philosophy, Harvard University Ian Goldin, Director, Oxford Martin School; Trevor Manuel, Minister and Chair of the Professor of Globalisation and Development, National Planning Commission, South Africa Nicholas Stern (Lord Stern of Brentford), University of Oxford (Vice-Chair) President, The British Academy; IG Patel Professor Julia Marton-Lefèvre, Director-General, of Economics, London School of Economics Arianna Huffington, President and Editor-in- International Union for Conservation of Chief, Huffington Post Media Group Nature (IUCN) Jean-Claude Trichet, former President, European Central Bank Mo Ibrahim, Chair of the Board, Nandan Nilekani, Chairman, Unique Identification Mo Ibrahim Foundation Authority of India; former CEO, Infosys Chris Patten (Lord Patten of Barnes), Chancellor, University of Oxford; Chairman, BBC Trust The Commissioners are acting in their personal capacity. They were selected because of their breadth and depth of expertise, their geographical reach, and their extensive leadership experience gathered over many years in large organisations, multilateral negotiations and complex national and global institutions. This report represents the collective views of the Commission, and does not necessarily represent the individual opinions of any single Commissioner or the organisations to which they are affiliated. The Oxford Martin School Commission Secretariat was led by Natalie Day (Head of Policy), with Anushya Devendra (Communications and Policy Officer) and Dr Travers McLeod (Policy Adviser). This report was published by the Oxford Martin School. 5 Abbreviations 6 Executive Summary 8 Introduction 9 Governing for the future 10 One world; many cultures, perspectives and identities 11 About this report 12 Part A: Possible Futures 13 Megatrends 14 Demographics 15 Mobility 16 Society 17 Geopolitics 18 Sustainability 20 Health 22 Technology 24 Challenges 24 Society 26 Resources 29 Health 31 Geopolitics 33 Governance 36 Part B: Responsible Futures 37 Looking Back to Look Forward 37 Lessons from Previous Successes 41 Lessons from Failure 44 Shaping Factors: What Makes Change so Hard? 44 1: Institutions 45 2: Time 48 3: Political Engagement and Public Trust 52 4: Growing Complexity 53 5: Cultural Biases 56 Part C: Practical Futures: Principles and Recommendations 57 1: Creative Coalitions 57 C20-C30-C40 57 CyberEx 58 Fit Cities 58 2: Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated Institutions 58 Decades, not Days 58 Fit for Purpose 59 Open up Politics 59 Make the Numbers Count 60 Transparent Taxation 60 3: Revalue the Future 60 Focus Business on the Long Term 61 Discounting 61 Invest in People 62 Measure Long-term Impact 62 4: Invest in Younger Generations 62 Attack Poverty at its Source 63 A Future for Youth 63 5: Establish a Common Platform of Understanding 63 Build Shared Global Values 65 What Next? 66 Endnotes 84 Acknowledgements 4 Abbreviations AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency G20 Group of Twenty NPCs National Planning Syndrome G30 Group of Thirty Consultative Commissions ASEAN Association of Southeast Group on International OECD Organisation for Economic Asian Nations Economic and Monetary Affairs Co-operation and BEPS Base Erosion and Profit GATT General Agreement on Tariffs Development Shifting and Trade OGP Open Government C40 Cities Climate Leadership GAVI Global Alliance for Vaccines Partnership Group and Immunisations R&D Research and Development CDOs Collateralised Debt GDP Gross Domestic Product RGI Resource Governance Index Obligations HIV Human Immunodeficiency SARS Severe Acute Respiratory CEO Chief Executive Officer Virus Syndrome CERN European Organization for IFPRI International Food Policy SMP Single Market Programme Nuclear Research Research Institute (Europe) CFC Chlorofluorocarbon IFRS International Financial TB Tuberculosis CGIAR Consultative Group for Reporting Standards TRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of International Agricultural IHR International Health Intellectual Property Rights Research Regulations UDHR Universal Declaration of CO2 Carbon Dioxide IIAG Ibrahim Index of African Human Rights CPI Corruption Perceptions Index Governance UN United Nations CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific ILO International Labour UNDP United Nations Development and Industrial Research Organization Programme Organisation IMF International Monetary Fund UNEP United Nations Environment DNA Deoxyribonucleic Acid IP Intellectual Property Programme ECOSOC Economic and Social Council IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on UNESCO United Nations Educational (United Nations) Climate Change Scientific and Cultural FAO Food and Agricultural IUCN International Union for Organization Organization Conservation of Nature UNFCCC United Nations Framework FCF Committee for the Future LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas Convention on Climate (Finland) MDGs Millennium Development Change FCTC Framework Convention on Goals UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund Tobacco Control NCDs Non-Communicable Diseases WGIs Worldwide Governance FDI Foreign Direct Investment NGOs Non-Governmental Indicators FSB Financial Stability Board Organisations WHO World Health Organization G7 Group of Seven NHS National Health Service WIPO World Intellectual Property G8 Group of Eight (United Kingdom) Organization WTO World Trade Organization 5 Executive Summary As the world slowly emerges from the Part A, Possible Futures, identifies a number In Part B, Responsible Futures, the Commission devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect of interacting megatrends, grouped under examines historical drivers of transformative on the lessons of this turbulent period and seven headings: demographics (large, ageing change, such as the existence of crisis, shared think afresh about how to prevent future populations); mobility (urbanisation and a interests, leadership, inclusion, institutions and crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for growing middle class); society (inequality and networks, partnerships, as well as goals and Future Generations focuses on the increasing unemployment); geopolitics (power transitions); prizes. From campaigns to protect the ozone short-termism of modern politics and our sustainability (resource insecurity); health layer and reduce tobacco use, to the European collective inability to break the gridlock which (shifting burdens of disease); and technology Single Market and the Millennium Development undermines attempts to address the biggest (information and communications revolution). Goals, there are many examples of where challenges that will shape our future. In Now These megatrends apply the world over, disparate groups have come together and made for the Long Term, we urge decision-makers reinforcing old and generating new sets of significant progress. At the other end of the to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations challenges. results spectrum, the Commission considers to tackle problems that will determine the less successful characteristics of modern lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations. The Commission then considers five categories politics, including the tragedy of the commons, Dr James Martin, the founder of the Oxford of challenges that arise from these megatrends a lack of intergenerational vision and awareness, Martin School, highlighted that humanity is at that are likely to shape our future: the absence of global oversight, and vested a crossroads. This could be our best century 1. Society: How can growth and development interests. Following these insights, Part B sets ever, or our worst. The outcome will depend be made more sustainable and inclusive? out fiveshaping factors that make positive on our ability to understand and harness the 2. Resources: How can food, energy, water and change so difficult: extraordinary opportunities as well as manage biodiversity be made more secure? the unprecedented uncertainties and risks. 3. Health: How can public health infrastructure 1. Institutions: Too many have struggled to and processes respond to the needs of all? adapt to today’s hyper-connected world. Our report identifies what these challenges 4. Geopolitics: How can power transitions be 2. Time: Short-termism directs political are, explains how progress can be made, and the basis for fresh forms of collaboration? and business cycles, despite compelling provides practical recommendations. The 5. Governance: How can businesses, exceptions. Commission outlines an agenda for the long institutions and governments