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Now for the Long Term The Report of the Martin Commission for Future

1 2 Now for the Long Term The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for

October 2013

Members of the Commission:

Chair: , former Director-General, Luiz Felipe Lampreia, former of Peter Piot (Baron Piot), Director, Foreign Affairs, Brazil School of and Tropical Medicine; former Executive Director, UNAIDS Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile; Liu He, Minister, Office of the Central Leading former Executive Director, UN Women Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, (Lord Rees of Ludlow), former People’s Republic of President, The Royal Society; Fellow of Trinity Lionel Barber, Editor, The Financial College, Kishore Mahbubani, Dean and Professor in the , Chairman, Roland Berger Practice of Public Policy, Lee Kuan Yew School Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate and Thomas W. Strategy Consultants of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Lamont University Professor, and Professor of Economics and , , Director, ; Trevor Manuel, Minister and Chair of the Professor of Globalisation and Development, National Planning Commission, Nicholas Stern (Lord Stern of Brentford), (Vice-Chair) President, The British Academy; IG Patel Professor Julia Marton-Lefèvre, Director-General, of Economics, London School of Economics Arianna Huffington, President and Editor-in- International Union for Conservation of Chief, Huffington Post Media Group Nature (IUCN) Jean-Claude Trichet, former President, Mo Ibrahim, Chair of the Board, Nandan Nilekani, Chairman, Unique Identification Mo Ibrahim Foundation Authority of ; former CEO, Infosys

Chris Patten (Lord Patten of Barnes), Chancellor, University of Oxford; Chairman, BBC Trust

The Commissioners are acting in their personal capacity. They were selected because of their breadth and depth of expertise, their geographical reach, and their extensive leadership experience gathered over many years in large organisations, multilateral negotiations and complex national and global institutions.

This report represents the collective views of the Commission, and does not necessarily represent the individual opinions of any single Commissioner or the organisations to which they are affiliated.

The Oxford Martin School Commission Secretariat was led by Natalie Day (Head of Policy), with Anushya Devendra (Communications and Policy Officer) and Dr Travers McLeod (Policy Adviser). This report was published by the Oxford Martin School.

5 Abbreviations

6 Executive Summary

8 Introduction 9 Governing for the future 10 One world; many cultures, perspectives and identities 11 About this report

12 Part A: Possible Futures 13 Megatrends 14 Demographics 15 Mobility 16 Society 17 Geopolitics 18 20 Health 22 24 Challenges 24 Society 26 Resources 29 Health 31 Geopolitics 33

36 Part B: Responsible Futures 37 Looking Back to Look Forward 37 Lessons from Previous Successes 41 Lessons from 44 Shaping Factors: What Makes Change so Hard? 44 1: Institutions 45 2: 48 3: Political Engagement and Public Trust 52 4: Growing Complexity 53 5: Cultural Biases

56 Part C: Practical Futures: Principles and Recommendations 57 1: Creative Coalitions 57 C20-C30-C40 57 CyberEx 58 Fit 58 2: Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated Institutions 58 Decades, not Days 58 Fit for Purpose 59 Open up 59 Make the Numbers 60 Transparent Taxation 60 3: Revalue the Future 60 Focus Business on the Long Term 61 Discounting 61 Invest in People 62 Measure Long-term Impact 62 4: Invest in Younger Generations 62 Attack at its Source 63 A Future for Youth 63 5: Establish a Common Platform of Understanding 63 Build Shared Global Values 65 What Next?

66 Endnotes

84 Acknowledgements

4 Abbreviations

AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency G20 Group of Twenty NPCs National Planning Syndrome G30 Group of Thirty Consultative Commissions ASEAN Association of Southeast Group on International OECD Organisation for Economic Asian Nations Economic and Monetary Affairs Co-operation and BEPS Base Erosion and Profit GATT General Agreement on Tariffs Development Shifting and Trade OGP Open Government C40 Cities Climate Leadership GAVI Global Alliance for Vaccines Partnership Group and Immunisations R&D Research and Development CDOs Collateralised Debt GDP Gross Domestic Product RGI Resource Governance Index Obligations HIV Immunodeficiency SARS Severe Acute Respiratory CEO Chief Executive Officer Virus Syndrome CERN European Organization for IFPRI International Food Policy SMP Single Market Programme Nuclear Research Research Institute () CFC Chlorofluorocarbon IFRS International Financial TB Tuberculosis CGIAR Consultative Group for Reporting Standards TRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of International Agricultural IHR International Health Intellectual Property Rights Research Regulations UDHR Universal Declaration of

CO2 Carbon Dioxide IIAG Ibrahim Index of African Human Rights CPI Corruption Perceptions Index Governance UN CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific ILO International Labour UNDP United Nations Development and Industrial Research Organization Programme Organisation IMF International Monetary Fund UNEP United Nations Environment DNA Deoxyribonucleic Acid IP Intellectual Property Programme ECOSOC Economic and Social Council IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on UNESCO United Nations Educational (United Nations) Scientific and Cultural FAO Food and Agricultural IUCN International Union for Organization Organization Conservation of Nature UNFCCC United Nations Framework FCF Committee for the Future LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas Convention on Climate () MDGs Millennium Development Change FCTC Framework Convention on Goals UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund Tobacco Control NCDs Non-Communicable Diseases WGIs Worldwide Governance FDI Foreign Direct Investment NGOs Non-Governmental Indicators FSB Financial Stability Board Organisations WHO World Health Organization G7 Group of Seven NHS National Health Service WIPO World Intellectual Property G8 Group of Eight () Organization WTO World Trade Organization

5 Executive Summary

As the world slowly emerges from the Part A, Possible Futures, identifies a number In Part B, Responsible Futures, the Commission devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect of interacting megatrends, grouped under examines historical drivers of transformative on the lessons of this turbulent period and seven headings: demographics (large, ageing change, such as the existence of crisis, shared think afresh about how to prevent future populations); mobility (urbanisation and a interests, leadership, inclusion, institutions and crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for growing middle class); society (inequality and networks, partnerships, as well as goals and Future Generations focuses on the increasing unemployment); geopolitics (power transitions); prizes. From campaigns to protect the ozone short-termism of modern politics and our sustainability (resource insecurity); health layer and reduce tobacco use, to the European collective inability to break the gridlock which (shifting burdens of disease); and technology Single Market and the Millennium Development undermines attempts to address the biggest (information and communications revolution). Goals, there are many examples of where challenges that will shape our future. In Now These megatrends apply the world over, disparate groups have come together and made for the Long Term, we urge decision-makers reinforcing old and generating new sets of significant progress. At the other end of the to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations challenges. results spectrum, the Commission considers to tackle problems that will determine the less successful characteristics of modern lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations. The Commission then considers five categories politics, including the tragedy of the commons, Dr James Martin, the founder of the Oxford of challenges that arise from these megatrends a lack of intergenerational vision and awareness, Martin School, highlighted that humanity is at that are likely to shape our future: the absence of global oversight, and vested a crossroads. This could be our best century 1. Society: How can growth and development interests. Following these insights, Part B sets ever, or our worst. The outcome will depend be made more sustainable and inclusive? out fiveshaping factors that make positive on our ability to understand and harness the 2. Resources: How can food, energy, and change so difficult: extraordinary opportunities as well as manage biodiversity be made more secure? the unprecedented uncertainties and risks. 3. Health: How can public health infrastructure 1. Institutions: Too many have struggled to and processes respond to the needs of all? adapt to today’s hyper-connected world. Our report identifies what these challenges 4. Geopolitics: How can power transitions be 2. Time: Short-termism directs political are, explains how progress can be made, and the basis for fresh forms of collaboration? and business cycles, despite compelling provides practical recommendations. The 5. Governance: How can businesses, exceptions. Commission outlines an agenda for the long institutions and governments contribute to 3. Political Engagement and Public Trust: term. Our case for action is built in three parts. more inclusive and sustainable growth? Politics has not adapted to new methods or The first,Possible Futures, identifies the key members. drivers of change and considers how we may Part A also highlights what is known about 4. Growing Complexity: Problems can escalate address the challenges that will dominate this possible responses to these challenges. much more rapidly than they can be solved. century. Next, in Responsible Futures, the New targets on growth and employment, 5. Cultural Biases: Globalisation can amplify Commission draws inspiration from previous and a focus on youth workers and flexible cultural differences and exclude key voices. examples of where impediments to action workplaces are presented. The importance have been overcome, and lessons from where of resource transparency and information progress has been stalled. We then consider the sharing is reiterated, as are measures to characteristics of our current national and global counteract climate change. Goals to reduce society that frustrate progress. The final part, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), Practical Futures, sets out the principles for remedy deficiencies in public health systems, action and offers illustrative recommendations implement agreed best practice, and partner which show how we can build a sustainable, creatively with the pharmaceutical industry inclusive and resilient future for all. are stressed. Countries are advised to identify shared interests, update institutions and develop cybersecurity capacity as they navigate structural transitions in international politics. Better governance will aid this quest, particularly if technology is used creatively, indicators are improved, and business is rewired to invest for the long term.

6 Part C, Practical Futures, contains the 3. Revalue the Future: Existing institutional Commission’s Agenda for the Long Term. incentives should be rebalanced to reduce It is arranged around five principles, with bias against future generations. This can be practical examples proposed to illustrate each done in four ways: principle. Some build on possible responses • Focus Business on the Long Term: ensure to the challenges identified in Part A. Others companies and financial systems give greater respond to the shaping factors outlined in priority to long term “health” and look Part B, and seek to address deeper political and beyond daily or quarterly reporting cycles. cultural factors that obstruct a longer-term • Discounting: future generations should not engagement. We provide indicative examples be discounted against simply because they of principles and proposals that advance the are born tomorrow and not today. interests of future generations and promote • Invest in People: remove perverse subsidies resilience, inclusiveness and sustainability. The on hydrocarbons and agriculture, and redirect Agenda is as follows: support to the poor. • Measure Long-term Impact: create an index 1. Creative Coalitions: Responding to this to track the effectiveness of countries, century’s challenges will require multi- companies and international institutions on stakeholder partnerships. The Commission longer term issues. suggests three: • C20-C30-C40: a Coalition of the Working 4. Invest in Younger Generations: Greater comprising countries, companies and cities to attention should be given to promoting a counteract climate change. more inclusive and empowered society, • CyberEx: a new early warning platform to particularly for younger generations. Two promote a better understanding of common priorities should be: threats amongst government, corporate and • Attack Poverty at its Source: break the individual users. intergenerational cycle of poverty through • Fit Cities: a -based network to fight the social protection measures such as rise of non-communicable diseases. conditional cash transfer programmes. • A Future for Youth: countries should invest in 2. Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated youth guarantees to address unemployment Institutions: Institutions and processes and underemployment. should be renewed for the modern operating environment. Five steps are suggested: 5. Establish a Common Platform of • Decades, not Days: invest in independent, Understanding: The ability to address accountable institutions able to operate today’s global challenges is undermined by the across longer-term horizons. absence of a collective vision for society. To • Fit for Purpose: incorporate sunset clauses remedy this, the Commission urges renewed into publicly funded international institutions dialogue on an updated set of shared global to ensure regular review of accomplishments values around which a unified and enduring and mandates. pathway for society can be built. • Open up Politics: build on initiatives such as the Open Government Platform to optimise The Commission applauds the remarkable new forms of participation and transparency. progress of past decades: on balance, the • Make the Numbers Count: establish world’s population is safer, healthier, more Worldstat to improve the reliability and productive and cooperative than ever. availability of statistics. Nevertheless, much work remains to be done. • Transparent Taxation: address tax abuse and Now for the Long Term aims to stimulate avoidance through a Voluntary Taxation and action and debate. Commissioners look forward Regulatory Exchange. to engaging with governments, businesses, NGOs and civil society in order to take these ideas and recommendations forward in the months and years ahead.

7 Introduction

8 NOW is the best time in history to be alive. The empowerment of people through countries. Government and business leaders Our world has experienced a sustained period investment in education and other forms of tend to focus on the short term, which offers of positive change. The average person is human capital is critical for sustainable and quicker and potentially easier payoffs at lower about eight times richer than a century ago,1 inclusive growth. Entrepreneurs and investment political cost. nearly one billion people have been lifted out of thrive when not only infrastructure and extreme poverty over the past two decades,2 innovative capacity is developed, but when the The aim of the Oxford Martin Commission for living standards have soared, life expectancy has rules governing society are also transparent Future Generations (“the Commission”) is to risen, the threat of war between great powers and fair. Given the scale of the challenges identify the scale of the challenges humanity is has declined, and our genetic code and universe and the prospect of very positive but also facing and to offer suggestions as to how they have been unlocked in previously inconceivable possibly disastrous change, the response of may better be managed. We believe that we ways. Many of today’s goods are unimaginable governments, businesses and citizens should can and must do a much better job of securing without collective contributions from different not be to become more short-sighted. The scale the opportunities and mitigating the risks. parts of the world, through which more of of the opportunities and risks requires more The Commission seeks to draw attention to a us can move freely with a passport or visa, attention to the future and a more far-sighted growing gap between knowledge and action on provided we have the means to do so. Our attitude. In an increasingly integrated and many of today’s challenges, identify why action world is functionally smaller, and its possibilities hyper-connected world, our individual future has slowed, and suggest pathways to move the are bigger and brighter than ever before. Never depends more than ever on our collective future global agenda forward. before have so many people been optimistic and our capacity to work together to deepen about their future.3 our understanding of the critical challenges. Governing for the future We need to ensure that we have the skills, The Commissioners have come together out While the future is full of opportunity arising tools, institutions and social fabric necessary to of concern for the future. We agree governing from the extraordinary advances of recent navigate safely through the hazardous fog of requires a dual vision: a commitment to address decades, it is also highly uncertain and the future. current needs and to build the foundations for characterised by growing systemic risks. In vibrant generations in the decades ahead. This many cases, these risks are the consequences As the late French politician Pierre Mendès responsibility transcends obligations to today’s of our success, arising from rising incomes, used to say, “gouverner, c’est prévoir” citizens: it also relates to future generations and a population growth, interconnectedness and – governing is looking forward, or foreseeing. broader societal of trusteeship that requires technological advances. Risks arising from Preparing for the future, however, seems us to leave the world better than we find it.5 the plundering of our planet’s natural capital, a luxury for today’s governments, who are This is a unique time in history. Our younger growing inequality, and the potentially increasingly preoccupied with the present; is the first to live free of the scars devastating results of accidental or deliberate indeed, many governments even “live with their of previous global wars. Given extraordinary use of new are among the eyes on the rear-view mirror, refighting ancient advances in knowledge and scientific we urgently need to deepen our battles and reigniting ancient enmities”.4 An understanding, today we are more aware than understanding of the threats posed by inability to “look forward” characterises much ever of the implications of our actions on future business as usual. of modern politics, especially in democratic generations, not least in areas like climate

9 change and biodiversity. And we could arguably to the transformational changes which will One world; many cultures, be amongst the last generations able to do characterise our lifetimes and shape the future perspectives and identities anything to stop the long-term devastation of for the next generations. Taking a longer view Globalisation is not new but the global breadth our planet. Soon it may be too late. We hold a is no panacea; striking a sustainable balance and depth of its impact has changed. Many unique responsibility, arising from our advanced between short‑term and long‑term interests is asserted globalisation would result in greater knowledge of the implications of our actions key. Currently, there is a lack of understanding homogenisation of customs and cultures, which and the potential that our actions could create on the conditions under which long-term may have assisted in developing a common or prevent irreversible damage to the livelihoods thinking might be improved.9 Existing structures understanding and agreement on how to of future generations. This report aims to help bestow a higher value to immediate returns on address today’s challenges.10 In fact, in some us step up to this unique responsibility for the investment. Some of these returns exacerbate cases, the opposite appears to have transpired: benefit of those alive today and in the future.6 the risks and social consequences posed by globalisation has not been “equated with longer-term challenges and delay collaborative homogenisation or uniformity” but has found Weeramantry, former Vice President of action on them. “localisation as its counterforce”.11 the International Court of Justice, reminded us that civilisations across the ages have “refused The debate about the future, however, is not Since the Second , there has been to adopt a one‑eyed vision of concentration on simply about the virtue of long-term thinking. great progress in building trust and momentum the present”.7 , he has This is a debate about what is owed to future on a number of national and international argued, “is one of the most ancient ideas in the generations. The Commission does not intend challenges. This has often been done by focusing human heritage”.8 Evidence of long-term thinking to settle this debate. We accept there are on mutual interests, not just between people comes in a variety of forms, whether it is in a range of good reasons to care about the but also among cities, nations and businesses. defence, health care, fiscal planning, demography, interests of future persons, and to reflect on Such a capacity has been necessary “to perceive, migration, the environment, or governance the extent to which such interests should be recognise, and deal with differences, conflicts, structures more generally. Governments protected, considered, restored or enhanced and oppositions and to arrive at workable regularly make long‑term commitments, such by those of us living today. No one system solutions to the problems and challenges as in education, welfare and infrastructure, of government has a monopoly on thinking that result from an accelerating process of though these are not necessarily guided by a about, or governing for, future generations, globalisation”.12 For the most part, however, longer‑term view or explicitly mandated to even if certain systems may prove more today’s challenges are even more intertwined address difficult long‑term questions. adept than others. We, the Commissioners, and beyond the scope of national jurisdiction. drawn from different parts of the world, are Many of these challenges, not least those Uncertainty about the future, the never-ending united by a desire to harness the opportunities related to climate change, are the by-products immediacy of pressures at our doorsteps and presented in today’s world for the benefit of of industrialisation and economic growth. the rapidity of change in today’s society make it current generations, whilst also ensuring that While the already advanced economies have easier to rationalise living in the eternal present. we leave the world in a better position for generated many of the externalities, much of Changing course towards the longer term our grandchildren, and the generations that the burden going forward will need to be shared requires society to devote sustained attention succeed them. by the developing world, whose rapid growth is

10 compounding challenges such as climate change necessary to tackle challenges common to all and categories are used to illustrate key challenges and resource scarcity. Our hyper-connected requiring national and wider cooperation may need that need to be grappled with, the links between world requires unprecedented collaboration. to occur incrementally. them, and how they might be addressed. Reaching consensus on a path forward requires a deep understanding of “how the one world About this report PART B: Responsible Futures seeks to diagnose affects the many and how the many worlds This report aims to contribute to the ability of why gridlock and a lack of political will for change affect the one”. This, in turn, necessitates a national and local governments, international persist on many challenges where action is deep awareness of local and regional cultures, institutions, businesses and the broader imperative. It draws lessons from examples where perspectives and identities, and how they are community to understand and navigate these impediments to action have been overcome, responding to each other in an era in which competing tensions in order to grapple with the and also considers why certain efforts have cooperation is a prerequisite for progress.13 major long-term issues of today. It examines five failed or stalled. Five shaping factors that impact sets of challenges requiring concerted attention. the ability to get things done are identified: Individuals often take as a starting point difference, The Commission does not attempt to provide institutions, time, political engagement and not likeness: we often define ourselves largely one-stop solutions and we are aware of the trust, complexity and culture. based on what differentiates us from those we wide-ranging arguments regarding the right encounter.14 This “precedence of difference course of action. Today’s challenges are deeply PART C: Practical Futures builds from the over sameness” has important, and perhaps complex and interconnected, and will require possible and responsible futures suggested in misunderstood, consequences for the conduct multiple and sustained actions in order to be fully Parts A and B, and offers practical, overarching of multilateral dialogues and negotiations on the addressed. Our aim is to highlight areas where recommendations to overcome the gridlock of longer-term challenges identified in this report. action could be taken if the political will were modern politics and shift mindsets towards the As Commissioners, we have observed that mobilised to do so, and how it could be taken. We long term. The recommendations are arranged globalisation can sharpen cultural contrasts and try to understand why action has become more around five key principles: creative coalitions; invoke stronger claims for localisation.15 While the difficult and provide recommendations which we innovative, open and reinvigorated interconnections made possible via a globalised hope will be useful in terms of moving forward institutions; revalue the future; invest world provide hope for “economical, ecological, the agenda for future generations. in younger generations and establish a educational, informational, and military forms of platform of understanding. cooperation”, this environment can also trigger The report comprises three parts: “a counter-reaction to what people experience as a threat”.16 Such a reaction – defensive PART A: Possible Futures gives a synopsis of localisation despite globalisation – might come global megatrends and introduces the key from individuals, communities, or take place within challenges on which action is essential. These institutions. This means the Commission cannot challenges are introduced within five broad be starry‑eyed about the prospect of broad, categories: society, resources, health, sweeping changes and position leaps on the geopolitics and governance. This is by no challenges it identifies. Movement along pathways means an exclusive or comprehensive list, but the

11 Part A: Possible Futures

12 Megatrends

Taking stock

Megatrends mark important shifts in the of society.17 They tend to persist over the long term, at times with impacts that are not immediately evident. Some are more reversible than others. Megatrends can be extremely positive, such as poverty reduction, the emergence of the Internet, longer lifespans and the decline of great wars. They can also be negative, as is evidenced by growing inequality and the rising threats of both infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Either way, megatrends can and often do generate profound and potentially permanent changes to the way societies are governed.

Presenting a picture of the future can be risky. It can leave us jumping at “distant and fragile shadows” and unprepared when the real world knocks at the door.18 We know events are often unanticipated. The future is bound to be full of good and bad surprises. This does not mean we should be complacent about what is happening around us, and ignore what that might mean for the future. Figure 1: Global megatrends in the 21st century In this section, we identify a number of Source: Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations. prominent global megatrends. Some date back to before the Industrial Revolution; others have become influential since the end of the Cold War. We do not seek to be too predictive. Ensuring that one is able to seize the positive opportunities and build resilience against the downside risks will require an open and constant commitment to discovery and learning.

The megatrends are grouped under seven headings but are highly interactive. Many megatrends are slow, whilst the direction of others may turn or accelerate unexpectedly. Globalisation underpins them all. Together, these megatrends are transforming the world and doing so in a manner that is distinct from the drivers of change in earlier times.

13 Demographics

Over the next century, changes in the world’s demography – the characteristics and composition of the global population – are likely to be dramatic. This is not just about gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan, distribution and activities of people. The world’s population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around 7 billion today, and is projected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by Half the world’s 2050. Over 60 percent of the global population population lives in is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 this circle Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.2

Ageing nations

The world’s population is getting older, with the Figure 2: Global population distribution, 2013 population over 60 growing fastest.21 In less Source: Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations. than 40 years, one in every five people will be at least 60 years old. Average lifespan is projected to be 83 years in the developed world and 72 in the less developed world by 2050, compared with 78 and 67 today, and 66 and 42 in 1950.22 The overall ratio of old to young is set to almost double from current levels, and total numbers of 60-80 year olds over 80s (as % of total population) over 60s will more than double from 810 million to 2 billion. Ageing will impact certain parts of the world much earlier, transforming populations: North America & the ratio of the old-age population to the Europe America Asia Caribbean Africa working population (15-64 years) in is 35 already over 38 percent and is projected to reach almost 70 percent by 2050, for example,23 and 30 half of Europe will be over 50 by the end of this decade.24 Discrepancies in sex ratios have also become more pronounced in some places. Whilst 25 the longer life expectancy of females is gradually diminishing imbalanced sex ratios in many populations, Asia is experiencing an increased 20 “masculinisation” of society. The difference Percentage between the numbers of men and women in Asia 15 more than tripled from 1950-2005.25

10

5

0 2007 2050* 07 50 07 50 07 50 07 50 07 50 * Prediction

Figure 3: The ageing global population Source: UN-DESA, World Population Prospects – The 2010 Revision: Highlights and Advance Tables (New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs), p. 8.

14 Mobility

Europe 2009: 664m North America 2030: 680m 2009: 338m 2030: 322m Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa 2009: 525m 2009: 137m 2030: 3228m Central & South America 2030: 341m 2009: 181m 2030: 313m

Figure 4: The rise of the global middle class Note: m = millions of people. “Middle Class” is defined as those households with daily expenditures of between USD $10 and USD $100 per person. The light blue circle depicts the size of the middle class population in 2030; the dark circle charts the 2009 middle class population. Source: Commonwealth of , Australia in the Asian Century (Canberra: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2012), p. 63.

As a share of the world’s population, migration vast majority will come from emerging markets, percent reduction in South and West Asia).35 today is less prevalent than it has been in the past, which are projected to double their share of University enrolments in emerging countries such as during the age of mass migration in the global consumption (from one third to two doubled between 1996 and 2007, whilst 19th century. Nevertheless, the total number of thirds) by 2050.32 Consumers will increasingly be student mobility globally also increased. Nearly migrants has grown with the world’s population. concentrated in cities within emerging markets.33 four million students studied abroad in 2010, The birthplace and destination of migrants is almost twice more than a decade earlier. The constantly changing. Currently, there are over 210 This emerging middle class could provide a overall return on education is also climbing. million people living outside their country of origin, much-needed impetus for balanced global Within OECD countries, tertiary-educated up from 150 million in 1990.26 Remittances growth by boosting consumption, investing workers earn 55 percent more on average than to developing countries are estimated to have in health, education and renewable energy, those with upper-secondary and alternative reached USD $406 billion in 2012.27 and driving higher productivity, sustainable post-secondary qualifications.36 As we will economic development, and more political see, however, education helps but does not Urbanisation is also occurring rapidly within our stability via increased demand for accountability guarantee employment – connecting educated populations.28 In 1950, only three of every ten and good governance.34 Whilst this constitutes individuals with jobs remains a challenge. people lived in cities. In 2008, the number of a significant opportunity, there is also the risk people in cities was greater than that in rural of an increasing divide between the growing areas for the first time. Urbanisation generates middle class and those left behind. At the same opportunities particularly in the delivery of time, growth in consumption and incomes will services and public goods but also presents add further pressure to our strained resources sizeable challenges. By 2030, over two billion and environment. people may well be living in urban slums.29 A dramatic rise in the number of people living in urban floodplains is also expected, especially in Empowerment through education Eastern and Southern Asia and in Africa.30 Access to primary education in particular is regarded as critical to socioeconomic mobility, Rise of the middle class and for this it has been an objective of the Millennium Development Goals Mobility is not just about geography; there is (MDGs). Substantial inroads have been made also an integral socioeconomic dimension. Over this past decade in reducing the number of the next 40 years, billions more people are out‑of‑school children (now about 60 million, expected to join the global middle class.31 The down from 108 million 20 years ago, with a 66

15 Society

2005 2015

Vietnam ZAF KEN BDI Zambia BFA Guinea Indonesia PHL Haiti India MOZ MEX 47 456 Bangladesh CIV Angola NPL 33 MOZ MWI RWA ZAF Chad Nigeria Bangladesh DRC 96 MDG DRC 76 48 17 China 38 Niger NPL Tanzania CMR Indonesia 31 Nigeria PHL Pakistan 34 India 102 COL China 35 88 208 MLI UGA UGA UZB Tanzania 34 Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean East Asia and Pacific Niger MDG MWI Middle East and North Africa South Asia

(Millions of poor people)

Figure 5: The changing global poverty landscape Note: Numbers refer to individuals living below the international poverty line of USD $1.25 a day, figures rounded to the nearest million. The 2015 numbers are forecasts and for a number of countries the scale of improvement is indicative of the number of people clustered around the poverty line used in the figure. Source: Laurence Chandy and Geoffrey Gertz,Poverty in Numbers: The Changing State of Global Poverty from 2005-2015 (Washington DC: The , 2011), p. 8.

Uneven and unequal countries such as China, India, and South Africa43), social exclusion persists (through Africa, it is widening rapidly.40 unemployment, poverty or a lack of access For the past three decades, there has been to political, economic, educational or societal a steady decline in poverty rates in the Generational and gender divides processes).44 Exclusion hits the old, the young developing world. As highlighted in Figure 5, this and women hardest, especially in developing progress is anticipated to continue, not least One third of the world’s labour force countries. Gender inequality remains a key in countries such as China and India. Yet the began 2012 poor or unemployed; global barrier to economic growth and poverty contrast between rich and poor remains stark. unemployment is expected to remain over reduction. Women and girls account for six out Despite overall progress on education, three out 200 million until at least 2015. According to of ten of the world’s poorest and two-thirds of every four illiterate adults are located in just the ILO, over the past five years long-term of the world’s illiterate people. According to ten countries (37 percent of them in India)37 unemployment has increased in 60 percent of the UNDP, women perform 66 percent of and about half of all out-of-school children advanced and developing countries where there the world’s work, but earn just 10 percent are in sub-Saharan Africa.38 According to the is available data.41 Young people are 3–4 times of the income and own only 1 percent of the , more than 1.2 billion people do not more likely to be without a job: the global youth property.45 have access to electricity, including 550 million unemployment rate (12.6 percent) is more than in Africa and 400 million in India.39 Societies double the unemployment rate of the labour and individuals are becoming increasingly force as a whole.42 unequal. The Gini coefficient – an imperfect measure of the gap between the richest and While there has been solid progress on reducing poorest – has risen by more than 10 percent in extreme poverty (by 2050 it might only OECD countries since 1992. In some emerging remain a concern in India and sub-Saharan

16 Geopolitics

New world order World Asia (Share of output) (Share of output) The shift of economic power to emerging 100 100 markets is in full swing. Reports suggest that the GDP of developing countries is now at least equal to the developed world.46 Developing countries’ 80 80 share of global exports has increased over the last decade from 33 to 43 percent. Their share of global foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow 60 60 has grown from nearly 20 to over 50 percent.47 China and India are on track to have 35 percent 40 40 of the world’s population and 25 percent of its Percentage GDP by 2030.48 Brazil, Russia, India, and China’s combined share of world GDP is expected to 20 20 that of the original G7 countries by 2030.49 Even if these projections prove too optimistic, the rise of new economic powers may 0 0 be expected to to a new world order.50 2005 2015 2025 Rest of world ASEAN North America China Shared networks now transcend state Latin America and Caribbean India boundaries and render distinctions between Euro area Japan North, South, East and West increasingly Asia Rest of Asia redundant. Networks of economic activity as well as of communities and students Figure 6: Share of world output educated in foreign countries are vital to this Source: Commonwealth of Australia, Australia in the Asian Century (Canberra: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, transformation. Increased “brain circulation” 2012) p. 52. enables the flow of capital, cultures, ideas, global connections and cutting-edge expertise around the world, whilst international research networks and collaborations have flourished. More than a third of scientific published in international journals are now internationally collaborative, up from one quarter of publications nearly two decades ago.51 55

The global 50

The landscape of trade in goods and services has fundamentally changed since the Second 45 World War, as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) shepherded in a more open and connected global economy. Today there are 40 nearly 160 members of GATT’s successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). From 1950– 35 2007 trade grew by an average of 6.2 percent per year.52 In 2011 the total value of world merchandise trade was estimated at USD$18.2 30 trillion.53 Developing countries achieved a share of over 50 percent of global trade in 2012.54 25 World trade as percentage of world gdp ( $ us ) of world as percentage trade World Trade in value-added goods and global supply chains ensure exports rely on imports more than ever, a reality of the global marketplace that 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 new OECD-WTO data has begun to capture.55 Many of our most used goods and services are “made in the world”. The foreign content Figure 7: Growth in world trade 1960–2010 of “Korean” and “Chinese” electronic goods Source: Andrew McCulloch, “Globalisation and Protectionism Today”, Significance magazine, http://www.significancemagazine. exported in 2009, for example, was around 40 org/details/webexclusive/2528931/Globalisation-and-Protectionism-today.html.

17 Sustainability

percent.56 In many sectors, tariffs have declined governments and businesses, not least due to The “perfect storm” sharply. Less prominent improvements include the low barriers to entry. Old concerns – such more flexible rules on access to key medicines, as nuclear and chemical weapons – still remain Sustainability is inherently about the long term. improved monitoring functions, and peaceful serious threats. Nuclear powers operating It requires the reconciliation of environmental, and robust dispute settlement procedures. outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty social and economic demands necessary for Non-tariff barriers are becoming the principal increase the risk of disaster, either by design, the sustained survival of humankind and other impediment to the movement of a growing accident, or third party exploitation. The organisms on our planet. Above all, living range of goods and services, and are becoming other lingering fear is a mismanaged power sustainably means grappling with the “perfect a bigger part of world trade.57 Despite the surge transition, whereby emerging powers repeat storm” associated with the inseparability of in global trade,58 disagreement remains between their predecessors’ mistakes by allowing military water, food, energy and climate.62 advanced and emerging economies on how plans to become built-in escalators to war.61 to reconcile trade with the development and environmental agendas. ENERGY GEOPOLITICS Increased demand m50%and by 5 02030% by de 20 ed (IEA) 30 More seats at the table s ERG ( ea EN Y IE cr A In )

Whilst the state remains the principal actor

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times as many states as there were in 1945. s CLIMATE

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This increase in players makes international 0 d CHANGECHANGE e 2

m consensus on global challenges harder to reach. F y a R b O n E d O % Demand for legitimate governance – often FOOD 5 WAT TER0 0 D A 3 Increased %demand Increasedd demand n through democratisation and transparency – 50% by 2030 b 30%W aby 2030 y m (FAO) 2 e(IFPRI) 0 d has grown, as has the concern about fragile 3 d 0 se (F ea states. Expectations regarding the roles and AO) Incr responsibilities of states reflect changing global norms and expectations. The responsibility to protect citizens against grave is among recent advances. Others include the Figure 8: The “perfect storm”: growing influence of in food, water and energy trade, investment and armed conflict. The Source: Professor Sir , Biodiversity: Policy rise of international institutions and NGOs as Challenges in a Changing World (London: Government Office key players has also been associated with an for Science, 2009), slide 19. increase in the complexity of geopolitical power and international arrangements. It takes 1,500 litres of water and almost 10 ? megajoules of energy to produce 1kg of wheat, and 10 times more water and around 20 times It has been powerfully argued that the recent as much energy for 1kg of beef.63 As incomes “decline of violence may be the most significant rise and the population grows, the pressure and least appreciated development in the on these resources and the risk of resource history” of the human race.59 With two World insecurity increases rapidly. Climate change Wars and the Cold War dominating the 20th is a risk enhancer in this respect. If business century, it is remarkable that wars between continues as usual, and demand for natural the great powers appear increasingly unlikely. resources race ahead of supply,64 the “perfect While overall violence has declined, conflict storm” will compound an unsustainable cycle. has not ceased. At certain times during the last decade, 15 major conflicts were taking Total energy consumption per year is almost place at once.60 The majority of wars remain six times what it was in 1950; per capita use civil wars or insurgencies, largely ethnic and has more than doubled.65 Food production nationalist conflicts. Potentially devastating accounts for close to one third of all available tensions still simmer, increasingly driven by energy,66 and agriculture accounts for around religious fundamentalism. The stalemate of the 70 percent of water withdrawals worldwide.67 Middle East peace process provides continued Global demand for energy and fossil fuel use instability. Increasingly, small networks and has been projected to rise by as much as 50 individuals have the capacity to create havoc on percent by 2030.68 Demand for coal (and an unprecedented scale at low cost. associated emissions) has been reduced in the In today’s security landscape, issues of cyber due to the shale gas revolution, or biological warfare are growing concerns for but current indications show that this cannot

18 Exajoules per year be replicated in the immediate future outside 600 North America, and ultimately depends on the relative prices of coal and gas.69 Allied with this growing demand is the lack of new land 500 available for agriculture: 80 percent of arable Nuclear Oil land in developing countries is already used.70 Hydro-Elect Coal 400 Nat Gas Biofuels The energy sector is water intensive too.71 Energy accounts for 27 percent of all water consumed in the United States outside the agricultural sector.72 Globally, three billion 300 people still have inadequate access to water, even though the MDG of halving the proportion of the world’s population without sustainable 200 access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation has reportedly been met.73 Just 10 countries are home to two‑thirds of the people without 100 access to improved drinking water.74 The World Bank estimates two in every three countries will be water-stressed by 2025, at which time 0 around 2.4 billion people will face “absolute 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 water scarcity”. Yet, to feed the world in 2050, food production may need to rise by some 70 percent,75 which may require 50 percent more Figure 9: World energy consumption 1820-2010 water.76 Moreover, 40 percent of arable land is Note: Based on estimates from Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects, (: Praeger, 2010) already degraded to some degree, a problem that together with BP Statistical Data. will be exacerbated by global warming. Source: Our Finite World, “World Energy Consumption Since 1820 in Charts”, 12 March 2012, http://ourfiniteworld. com/2012/03/12/world-energy-consumption-since-1820-in-charts/

Withdrawal Consumption

800 140

700 120

600 100

500 80 400 60 Billion cubic metres 300 Billion cubic metres

40 200

100 20

0 0 2010 2020 2035 2010 2020 2035

Fuels Power Biofuels Bioenergy Oil Fossil fuels Nuclear Coal Gas

Figure 10: Global water use for energy production Source: International Energy Agency, “Water for Energy”, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/water-energynexus/.

19 Health

Cumulative total anthropogenic co2 emissions from 1870 (gtco2) The past century has delivered remarkable 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 advances in health, as is illustrated by the 5 increase of 4.7 years (male) and 5.1 years 2100 (female) to the average global life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2010.86 The eradication of smallpox, the discovery of 4 penicillin, the mapping of the human genome, the significant reduction in under-five mortality, developments in genetic technology, research 2100 and new treatments for HIV/AIDS, TB and 3 malaria, and growing access to health services 2100 and insurance ensure that our potential to live 2050 longer and healthier lives is greater than at 2050 any other point in human history. However, 2 2050 2050 2100 translating public health knowledge into 2030 practice has been fragmented and fraught with 2000 difficulty. Whilst biomedical technology and 1 2010 capacity to enhance the quality of health care and prevention have improved significantly, 2000 1950 access to health care remains vastly lopsided, 1980 with the poor and disadvantaged suffering a

Temperature anomaly relative to 1861 - 1880 (° c ) to anomaly relative Temperature 0 disproportionate burden of illness and disease. 1890 We are in the midst of experiencing multiple 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 transitions which impact health. These include Cumulative total anthropogenic co2 emissions from 1870 (gtc) a demographic transition from a pattern of high fertility and high mortality to low fertility (with RCP2.6 Historical the exception of sub-Saharan Africa), an ageing RCP4.5 RCP range population, and an epidemiological shift from

RCP6.0 1%/yr CO2 infectious diseases associated with malnutrition,

RCP8.5 1%/yr CO2 range famine and poor sanitation, to chronic and degenerative diseases associated with longevity,

Figure 11: Cumulative total of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and global urban and industrial lifestyles. These changes are temperature change also associated with a turning point in nutrition, Source: IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (: IPCC, September 2013), p. 36. “RCP” refers to the where malnutrition can be both from famine and Representative Concentration Pathway scenario used by the IPCC. starvation as well as from high caloric, nutrient- poor states, as in the case of obesity.87 It’s the green economy Our ecological footprint now exceeds our biological capacity by a record margin.82 By Historical, carbon-intensive models of economic 2010, almost one in four plant species were Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases growth are unsustainable. Since the Industrial reportedly threatened with , and Revolution there has been a strong correlation vertebrae species numbers have fallen by a The growing threat today is NCDs. Most are 77 of GDP per capita with CO2 emissions. The use third in the past four decades. Such biodiversity caused by preventable factors, including poor of carbon has yielded extraordinary benefits and loss is made even worse by climate change.83 diet, obesity and inactivity. NCDs like diabetes, none of the now advanced economies would have Continued population growth will amplify cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic lung developed without it, but the negative costs arising already stretched human demand for land and disease were responsible for 63 percent, or 36 from the consequent climate change now pose water resources, as well as food production million, of all global deaths in 2008. Described a rising threat. Warming of the climate system is and energy, generating more emissions as the “invisible epidemic”,88 NCDs are now

unequivocal. Atmospheric levels of CO2, methane and heightening human pressures on the the leading cause of death in the world. Each and nitrous oxide are “at levels unprecedented in environment. As urbanisation continues, the 10 percent rise in NCDs is associated with a

the last 800,000 years”, and CO2 concentrations focus of attention will increasingly be on our 0.5 percent lower rate of annual economic are 40 percent higher than pre-industrial times.78 cities, which by one estimate are already growth.89 The cost of treatment for NCDs over The IPCC is now highly confident that that the rate responsible for around 57–75 percent of global the next two decades, as our populations grow of sea level increase since the mid 19th century greenhouse gas emissions.84 The effects of larger and live longer, is estimated to be about “has been larger than the mean rate during the climate change and environmental degradation USD $30 trillion.90 previous two millennia”.79 If trends continue, could well undo part of the enormous progress cyclone intensity, extreme weather events80 and made in tackling poverty, particularly because The costs of lost productivity are even higher. global rainfall totals are also expected to increase, poor people and poor countries are least able Globally, projections suggest that there may be with considerable regional variation.81 to cope.85 a cumulative economic output loss of USD $47

20 50 around the world.99 Secondly, as predicted by Alexander Fleming, certain infections are re- 45 emerging as threats because of growing drug resistance. Antibiotics were hailed as 40 drugs but due to excessive use, misuse and 35 poor adherence to antibiotic regimens, many infection-causing bacteria have developed 100 30 resistance against existing antibiotics. Combined with the HIV epidemic, this has 25 resulted in the resurrection of diseases such as TB, creating new epidemics that are much 20 harder to treat, such as multi-drug resistant TB.

15

Lost output,Lost trillions (2010 $US) 10

5

0 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 High income Low income Upper middle income Total, low and middle income countries Lower middle income Total, world

Figure 12: Projected non-communicable diseases cost by income level based on economic growth forecasts Source: & Harvard School of Public Health, The Global Economic Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2011), p.31. trillion over the next two decades due to NCDs. responsible for 35 percent of all deaths of This loss represents 75 percent of global GDP children under five.96 Although Africa has seen in 2010 (USD $63 trillion). It also represents the greatest rate of decline in child mortality “enough money to eradicate two dollar-a-day rates since 1990, it still has double the ratio of poverty among the 2.5 billion people in that the next closest region.97 state for more than half a century.”91

Interconnected and infectious Although NCDs have traditionally been considered diseases of the affluent, it is in The focus on NCDs does not mean infectious fact poor and disadvantaged populations that diseases are a relic of the past. They remain a have the highest rates of NCDs in high-income significant threat, particularly in today’s highly countries.92 Approximately 80 percent of the mobile, interdependent and interconnected 36 million NCD deaths in 2008 occurred in low- world. Risks anywhere can be threats to-middle income countries. Many social factors everywhere. With around 40 new infectious play decisive roles in determining the health of diseases discovered in the past 40 years, of individuals and communities, as was reflected which SARS, HIV and different types of influenza in the 2011 Rio Declaration.93 The rate of are but three, the concern about further new increase of NCDs is, however, occurring much pandemics is not a case of if but when.98 faster in low-to-middle income countries, as economic growth and life expectancy rise. Poor There are concerning trends surrounding education and low incomes are associated with infectious diseases. Firstly, rapidly evolving rising NCDs in both developed and developing viruses such as influenza, ebola, Middle East countries.94 Sub-Saharan Africa is facing a Respiratory Syndrome – Coronavirus, and particularly heavy dual burden of disease, where HIV continue to thrive. Such threats are not NCDs are rising95 but malnutrition, hunger new; the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic, and infectious diseases continue to be grave originating towards the end of the First World problems. Undernutrition is estimated to be War, had a devastating impact on populations

21 Technology

A dramatic megatrend of the last half-century TUNISIA has been the pace of technological change. Computing power has been doubling almost every 18 months, virtually matching Gordon ALGERIA LIBYA WESTERN Moore’s 1965 observation. This appears likely to SAHARA continue for at least the next decade or two,101 and will continue to revolutionise the way we CAPE MAURITANIA lead our lives and the way societies are governed. VERDE MALI The Internet’s emergence is one such outcome; it NIGER SUDAN now boasts almost 2.5 billion users and there has CHAD THE GAMBIA BURKINA been a sevenfold increase in total international DJIBOUTI GUINEA FASO BISSAU GUINEA BENIN

bandwidth from 2007–2011. Such is its reach GHANA

TOGO NIGERIA and nascent speed, the World Wide Web has SIERRA LEONE CÔTE ETHIOPIA D’IVOIRE SOUTH C.A.R. SUDAN been heralded “the most powerful force for LIBERIA globalisation, democratisation, economic growth, CAMEROON 102 and education in history”. The information EQUATORIAL GUINEA UGANDA revolution has penetrated our lives in ways not CONGO SÃO TOMÉ GABON BRAZZAVILLE entirely understood, and created a faster, smarter, & PRÍNCIPE CONGO RWANDA “more personal and participatory” world.103 BURUNDI SEYCHELLES Adults saying they used a mobile phone in the TANZANIA past year to pay bills or send or receive money, 2011, % COMOROS >40 11- 20 31 - 40 0 -10 ANGOLA MALAWI ZAMBIA 21 - 30 No data

ZIMBABWE MOZAMBIQUE MADAGASCAR

SWAZILAND

SOUTH AFRICA 350k m

Figure 13: Mobile money users in Africa in 2011 Source: The Economist, “The Bank of SMS”, 24 April 2012 http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/04/daily-chart-12.

The great leveller? The Internet is the key driver of global connectivity and opportunity, but different New information technologies are reaching the bandwidth speeds, limited access, and world’s poor much faster than food and toilets. contrasting levels of openness can mean that A recent UN report suggested six billion people the Internet exacerbates rather than offsets have access to mobile phones, while only 4.5 inequality. Recent reports indicate, for example, billion have access to working toilets.104 There that less than 15 percent of the Indian population are around one billion mobile phones in both (150 million) have access to the Internet, with China and India. Africa is home to twice as only three percent connected at home.108 The many mobile phones as the United States105 WTO’s TRIPS Agreement commits developed and is the most advanced when countries to providing incentives to the private it comes to “mobile money”.106 Developing sector for technology transfer to developing countries accounted for 80 percent of new countries, but implementation remains weak.109 mobile subscriptions in 2011, with the number Once online, the inequalities persist. Data speeds of Internet users doubling over a four year in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and period.107 Technology offers great potential to Asia will reach current North American speeds enhance education opportunities, dramatically by 2017. In 2017, those regions will be home to improve health outcomes, promote free speech Internet speeds that are roughly six times slower and , and offer greater access to than networks in North America.110 global markets.

22 Exabytes Double-edged per month 12 A consideration of possible pathways to tackle new challenges requires an awareness that technology is deeply embedded in existing 6.5% institutional and societal structures. To some 7.6% extent, this can act as a barrier to more sustainable , and favour incumbent 7.7% technologies against newcomers or more radical interventions. Scholars point to our current 12.4% carbon based energy and transportation systems as evidence of “technological lock-in”, reinforced by regulatory and incentive structures with substantial environmental consequences.111 6 18.7%

The pace of technological change in science, information and communications has been described as “an accelerating race into the unknown”.112 By 2020, there are expected to be four billion people online, 31 billion connected 47.1% devices, 450 billion online interactions performed per day, and up to 50 trillion gigabytes of data.113 The notion of the cyber world as a separate “space” is increasingly redundant as technology becomes more pervasive and we become more 0 dependent through our business models, our 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 working and social practices, and in the delivery of key services. Whilst technological advances have revolutionised our lives, and offer profound Latin America (LATAM) Western Europe (WE) possibilities for tackling challenges, they also and Eastern Europe (CEE) North America (NA) maximise vulnerability. Individual hackers now Middle East and Africa (MEA) Asia Pacific (APAC) have the capacity to cripple public and private services, or cause havoc through the deliberate or unintentional spread of misleading information. Figure 14: Global mobile data traffic forecast by region 2012–2017 Controversial developments in artificial life, Source: Cisco, “Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2012–2017”,White , (2013), p. 6 genetic screening and enhancement, the global http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf. division of labour, and invasions upon privacy raise profound questions about the nature of human advances. Whilst the potential of big data, open sourcing and heightened transparency are generating excitement, in some cases the ubiquity of information technology has amplified public distrust in governments and science, instead of boosting social cohesion.

23 Challenges Society

Many of the megatrends present extraordinary Inclusion or exclusion? a viable long-term solution. Even though issues opportunities, but they also generate acute Boosting youth employment, surrounding employment and workforce structure risks and challenges unable to be contained empowering women and reducing are, first and foremost, national challenges and by any single actor or institution. This section inequality necessitate tailored approaches, many of the examines five areas where we believe action is problems are common to the global workforce. imperative. Space prevents us from capturing Future jobs Inadequate adjustment is also closely connected all the nuances, trade-offs, uncertainties and to broader questions about mobility, development, complications inherent within each. Nor do we Globalisation and automation are changing the access to property, the cost of social services, and cover every challenge facing our world. We workforce. Many manufacturing activities, along participation in civil society.120 have been selective and drawn on our personal with other key supply chain activities, have expertise in order to offer indicative pathways moved to emerging economies.114 Labour-saving This evolution in the workforce provides the for action on key challenges with long-term technologies are rendering an increasing number context for tackling the current unemployment impacts. of jobs obsolete. Recent figures in the United crisis. A generation of workers is at risk. Almost States point to substantial structural shifts in 30 million net jobs across all age groups were the workforce, and reveal that large numbers lost during the Financial Crisis and haven’t been Our five areas of focus: of clerical jobs have been displaced by new recovered.121 Ageism is increasingly blamed technologies.115 Technological innovation has for the non-retention or non‑hiring of older 122 1. Society driven down demand for low and medium skill workers. The gender gap in unemployment labour.116 Demand for employees to reskill quickly has increased once again, after significant Inclusion or exclusion? to keep pace with technological change continues improvements in the 1990s. Women remain Boosting youth employment, empowering to rise. Technology and structural shifts do not squeezed by inflexible workplace arrangements women and reducing inequality. necessarily mean there will be fewer jobs in the and are poorly represented at the top of the future, but adapting to the new environment and private and public sector. Women are also paid 2. Resources generating future jobs is a challenge. much less than men for equal work, especially Scarce or secure? in certain areas of the globe: more than 80 Tackling climate change, generating green The tech-boom has fuelled new employment percent of female employment in Sub-Saharan growth and resource security. opportunities in creative and innovative sectors, Africa is unwaged, compared to less than 20 including network support roles, percent in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.123 3. Health system architecture and web development.117 For richer or poorer? Technology also democratises education Young people remain the worst hit by the jobs Raising access, changing consumption habits and training by allowing many individuals crisis; they have been labelled the “Baby Bust” and preparing for pandemics. to learn online and fast-track employment generation, destined to be poorer than their opportunities. Nevertheless, computerisation parents.124 Over 70 million young people are out is spreading to sectors traditionally confined of work, and the number is projected to grow. 4. Geopolitics to human labour. Algorithms for Big Data are In advanced economies, 35 percent of young Compete or collaborate? rapidly entering domains reliant upon storing or unemployed have not had a job in over six months. Managing change and uncertainty accessing information, and replicate the human In and , the youth unemployment cooperatively, navigating power transitions ability to make sense of it. Robots are gaining rate is over 50 percent.125 Some young people productively. enhanced senses and dexterity, allowing them are dropping out altogether: youth participation to perform a wider range of tasks. New studies in the labour force is down to 30.3 percent in the 5. Governance suggest significantly more employment could Middle East and 33.6 percent in North Africa.126 Constructive or corrupt? be vulnerable to substitution by computer- The 2013 World Development Report stated Accurate measurements, shared language and driven equipment over the next two decades, “621 million young people are ‘idle’ – not in school a longer-term focus. in fields such as transportation and logistics, or training, not employed, and not looking for administrative support, and production.118 work”.127

Current understanding of the relationship Economic models and political systems built between employment and technological change upon a desire for “full employment” may require is insufficient, and adjustment to this structural revision. There is evidence of movement shift in the nature of work has been slow. Many “towards a more fluid employment relationship”, countries, companies and institutions continue to whereby “people are holding portfolios believe that the market will correct employment of activities, including paid employment, disparities. This view may be too optimistic, unpaid employment such as internships or especially with a deficit of high-skill workers and volunteering, self‑employment, and caring for insufficient supply of jobs for low and medium skill children or the elderly”.128 Steady adoption of workers forecast.119 More than ever, governments a portfolio of activities may lead to a different need to distinguish between jobs lost to other view on economic output and performance countries and jobs lost to the past. Protecting generated by the workforce, and shift tax jobs in areas being replaced by technology is not and regulatory burdens away from labour in

24 THE GLOBAL WEALTH PYRAMID 2012

Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas, and Anthony Shorrocks, Global Wealth Report 2012 (Zurich: Credit Suisse AG, 2012), p. 18. TUNISIA MOROCCO 29m (0.6%)

ALGERIA Understanding inequality LIBYA > USD 1m USD 87.5 trn (39.3%) WESTERN EGYPT SAHARA Economic growth can be unstable if wealth is CAPE 129MAURITANIA too tightly concentrated.VERDE Millions have been Wealth USD 100,000 344m USD 95.9 trn Total wealth MALI NIGER range to 1m (7.5%) (43.1%) (% of world) raised out of extreme poverty over the past SUDAN ERITREA SENEGAL CHAD few decades (especiallyTHE GAMBIA in China and India, as BURKINA DJIBOUTI GUINEA FASO highlighted in Figure 5), yet economic growthBENIN BISSAU GUINEA GHANA

TOGO NIGERIA has not been shared inclusively.SIERRA LEONE GlobalisationCÔTE ETHIOPIA D’IVOIRE SOUTH C.A.R. SUDAN has been associated with growingLIBERIA inequality. USD 10,000 1,035m USD 32.1 trn CAMEROON Incomes of the world’s top 1.75 percent of SOMALIA to 100,000 (22.5%) (14.4%) EQUATORIAL earners reportedly exceed the combined totalGUINEA of UGANDA CONGO KENYA those of the bottom 77 percent.130 As shown SÃOin TOMÉ GABON BRAZZAVILLE MOBILE-MONEY & PRÍNCIPE CONGO RWANDA Figure 15, 39.3 percent of the world’s wealth is BURUNDI USERS IN AFRICA 131 SEYCHELLES reportedly held by 0.6Adults percent saying they used of a itsmobile adults. phone in the In TANZANIA past year to pay bills or send or receive money, 2011, % the United States, despite continued economic COMOROS >40 11- 20 recovery, incomes have stagnated for all but the 31 - 40 0 -10 ANGOLA < USD 3,184m USD 7.3 trn 132 MALAWI most highly-educated and affluent Americans. ZAMBIA 10,000 (69.3%) (3.3%) 21 - 30 No data

Source: World Bank ZIMBABWE MOZAMBIQUE Evidence suggests global inequality may have MADAGASCAR begun to decline, perhaps for the first time since NAMIBIA BOTSWANA Number of adults (% of world population) the Industrial Revolution, but the gap between SWAZILAND rich and poor countries and the percentage of MAURITIUS 350k m SOUTH LESOTO wealth shared by the top one percent remains AFRICA high.134 Inequality is more pronounced between Figure 15: Global wealth pyramid 2012 rich and poor countries; indeed, location and not Note: m = millions of people. Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas, and Anthony Shorrocks, Global Wealth Report 2012 class now appears to be the decisive indicator (Zurich: Credit Suisse AG, 2012), p. 18. of inequality.21 Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, has described inequality as corrosive to growth and to society, suggesting that the economics profession and policymakers >USD 1 million need to focus more attention on inequality.135

Generating an inclusive economy that properly USD 100,000 and productively shares the benefits and to 1 million opportunities of economic growth has proved an elusive goal. Inequality, in particular, is a complex USD 10,000 phenomenon. Its pathology is especially intricate: to 100,000 one has to be careful of broad generalisations about present and historical data. Drivers of Wealth Strata Wealth inequality and unequal access to opportunity

India China Africa Europe The absence of data in poor countries, particularly Asia Pacific North America in Africa (where availability of household surveys Latin America has reportedly declined), makes it difficult to understand the true level of inequality and its significant drivers.136 Knowledge on the evolution Figure 16: Regional membership of global wealth strata 2012 of global inequality is said to be “very tentative”, Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas, and Anthony Shorrocks, Global Wealth Report 2012 (Zurich: Credit Suisse AG, 2012), p. 19. even if levels of global inequality remain “much greater than inequality within any individual order to facilitate an inclusive, productive and employment can reduce both the security and country”.137 Big winners in recent decades have flexible workforce fit for this century. It is worth the self-respect that unskilled workers deserve. been the “global top one percent and the middle cautioning, however, that increased fluidity in classes of the emerging market economies”.138

25 Resources

90 Scarce or secure? Tackling climate change, generating 80 green growth and resource security

70 Overall and per capita consumption of food, water, minerals and energy is rising rapidly.141 60 Resources such as biofuels and shale gas may ease pressures on energy supply, but there 50 are environmental concerns and uncertainties surrounding both techniques that need to be 142

Real increase Real 40 fully explored. There remains a worrying lack of willpower and momentum in the private and public sector to change existing approaches 30 on the scale required. Policy uncertainty, particularly in areas like wind energy or carbon 20 pricing, is a key impediment to industry investment.143 Investment in carbon free 10 energy technology of between USD $48–80 billion per year is required over at least the 0 next two decades if we are to pursue a more 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 sustainable path. The reality, however, is that Percentile of global income distribution perverse subsidies into fossil fuels continue at even higher levels: the IMF recently calculated Figure 17: Changes in real income 1988–2008 at different percentiles of the current total after tax subsidies to be global income distribution USD $1.90 trillion.144 Trade practices, including Source: Branko Milanovic Global Income Inequality by the Numbers: In History and Now – An Overview (Washington DC: The World industry subsidies, continue to restrain progress Bank, 2012), p. 13. on resource security. Vital knowledge on waste reduction, agricultural yields and energy There are signs for optimism. For some countries, well as apprenticeships and retraining, should efficiency is insufficiently shared. The waste within country inequality looks to have plateaued be prioritised. Understanding the constraints problem remains acute: between 30–50 over the past two decades, and real incomes for on geographical mobility is vital too, and percent of the food produced worldwide is those in the bottom third of the global income may require support for finding jobs and the never consumed and it is feasible, with the distribution have risen substantially. provision of accommodation in different cities right policies, to prevent the waste or loss of a and towns. Creative partnerships between substantial fraction of this figure.145 What could be done? governments, companies and educational institutions can provide direct routes from Policymakers and academics have historically • New targets: To enable a deeper learning to work and out of long-term treated water, energy and food separately, understanding of global inequality, it is unemployment. with governance and research isolated in time to shift the focus away from GDP and • Flexible workplaces: Private and public unhelpful silos.146 The absence of close increase attention on measures of household sector partnerships should institute flexible coordination between policies that impact income and distribution. Job targets should be parental leave, supportive childcare policies energy, water supply, land use, the oceans, reconsidered in light of the changing nature and mobile workplaces. Different telework ecosystem services and biodiversity is a barrier of employment, including by considering initiatives to foster flexible and productive to a sustainable resource future. Practices the adoption of new metrics, which take working arrangements should be studied across all areas need to be integrated and into account informal and voluntary working and experimented with in order to achieve ultimately incorporated into systems designed arrangements.139 Adjustments are required an appropriate balance for employers and to maximise resource efficiency, counteract to the relative tax and insurance burdens employees. The 2002 European Framework carbon emissions, and minimise waste and operating on labour, capital and consumption. Agreement on Telework is a model that may environmental damage.147 • Young workers: Proven interventions designed be replicated elsewhere, as are social security to get young people back into work need and tax rebates designed to promote telework Sustainable intensification to be championed. Businesses could be schemes. Improving female access to higher encouraged to hire long-term job seekers education and support for equal pay and Food supply is one area especially hampered via tax rebates, wage subsidies and loans. treatment instruments needs to be prioritised. by the “separate silos” approach to resources. Governments can consider greater provision Older workers should not be forced out; The global food system (including agricultural of one-on-one support for the long-term raised retirement ages and longer part-time production as well as distribution, storage, unemployed, including through extended participation in the workforce is necessary and packaging and consumption) directly unemployment insurance and providing “youth and desirable, given demographic changes. produces 16 percent of total greenhouse guarantees”.140 Improving quality and access gas emissions (with the same amount being to basic, higher and vocational education, as released through the conversion of land to

26 agriculture) and is a considerable drain on water and one in three amphibians. The IUCN Red List Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC has warned, there resources (approximately 75 percent of the shows alarming trends for several groups of is still little time left to act decisively: “we have water we use globally is for agriculture).148 As species. Its sample indicates how life on is five minutes before midnight”.161 Reorienting populations grow, it will become increasingly faring, how little is known, and how urgent the climate change drivers, controlling pollutants, important to manage landscapes in a way that need is to know more. and capping CO2 emissions at manageable levels reflects their multifunctionality – as places is one of the most pressing challenges of the where food is produced, carbon is stored and Biodiversity loss threatens clean water 21st century. The actions required are of the sequestered, water is purified and its flow provision, food production, climate stability scale of a new Industrial Revolution: we need to regulated, biodiversity thrives, and and water regulation, reducing the resilience cut CO2 emissions by 70–80 percent or face find recreation and cultural fulfilment. Higher of the natural environment in adapting to a drastically hotter planet. As climate change yields in some places will reduce the pressure change. Work is being done to enhance impacts are non-linear, the faster we act, the on land that has other important functions in mapping and modelling of biodiversity and safer we will be. addition to, or instead of, agriculture. 149 Greater ecosystem services, create mechanisms for information sharing and assistance between their protection, and ensure fair exploitation.156 Current modelling tools are unable to predict countries and across sectors will be vital.150 Central to this task are monetary and non- accurately the exact impact of climate changes Policy on food production cannot solely focus monetary valuations of biodiversity and on specific countries and communities. Evidence on yields and the environment; it must also help ecosystem services, along with partnerships suggests they may eradicate certain plant and to improve human nutrition and rural economic between businesses, markets and government animal species; cause severe flooding and other development.151 Sustainable intensification and agencies. Payments for Ecosystem Services extreme weather events with crippling impacts the attainment of food security will require (PES) schemes, including REDD (Reducing on people in low and marginal lands, particularly both closing the yield gap – the difference Emissions from Deforestation and poor people; and threaten critical infrastructure between yields that are possible and those Degradation in Developing Countries), play a worldwide, including energy supplies and that are achieved – as well as investing in new role by rewarding local communities who are agricultural yields.162 Left unchecked, climate knowledge to raise maximum yields. This will dependent on ecosystems but often struggle to change will exacerbate tension across the require increased investment in the agricultural interact with them in a sustainable manner.157 resource mix and potentially increase the risk of sciences, not just in advanced biotech. conflict.163 Genetic modification is potentially a very Considerable work remains to be done, valuable technology, but not a magic bullet. however, so that governments can distinguish An international climate prediction facility similar Its advantages and disadvantages should be between the different benefits generated by in scale to CERN’s Large Hadron Collider may evaluated together with other approaches and a biodiversity. Tripling the number of species be required to comprehend fully the scale of more open public dialogue to build trust.152 assessed by the IUCN Red List so that it these threats and steer .164 Climate better represents life on Earth would help to modelling requires improvement so feedback Valuing biodiversity and guide better policy decisions. Both the public effects, temporary slowdowns and regional ecosystem services and private sector will need to make difficult manifestations can be better understood. This choices in developing landscapes so that they will improve capacity to communicate climate Preserving the variety of natural life – can service multiple functions. It will not be change impacts and ensure this informs policy biodiversity – is a key element of sustainability. possible to save all species, but the interests development. Geoengineering – involving All species, especially humans, rely on of future generations and the need for careful deliberate attempts to manipulate the Earth’s ecosystems and their services. Such services stewardship should be kept closely in mind. climate on a large scale – cannot be discounted, are underpinned by biodiversity and generate but models, methods and feasibility remain ecological, socio‑cultural and economic goods Critical, controversial and complicated uncertain. Geoengineering is unlikely to supply and benefits.153 The Millennium Ecosystem an easy or alternative solution to climate Assessment discovered 60 percent of such The science underpinning climate change is change, but detailed analysis of possible services “have been degraded or are being complex. Whilst recent evidence suggests there methods and the development of governance used unsustainably”, and that “over the last 50 may be a current hiatus in global warming,158 frameworks are needed to guide the research years human activity has altered ecosystems over 97 percent of scientists support the tenets and its application.165 at a faster rate and on a larger scale than of human-induced climate change as outlined at any other time in human history”.154 The by the IPCC.159 In 2008, the Stern Review Signs of change International Union for the Conservation suggested a 75 percent chance of global of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species temperatures rising by between 2–3°C. The The safest and most effective response is to (“IUCN Red List”) has been a trusted source of most recent IPCC report, released in September reduce carbon emissions and turn economies information on the status, trends and threats to 2013, confirmed that global average land and away from carbon dependency. There are species.155 It is used to support policymaking, sea temperatures are continuing to increase, sea positive signs of change. Over 90 countries, guide financial investment, raise public levels are rising and glaciers and polar ice caps responsible for over 75 percent of current awareness and track progress in achieving global are melting. It suggests that unless greenhouse carbon emissions, have made mitigation pledges targets to reduce biodiversity loss. Today, the gas emissions are strongly reduced, the average for 2020 under the Cancun Agreements.166 The IUCN Red List contains records for over 70,000 temperature could rise by more than 2°C, and most recent Chinese Five Year Plan highlights species, 29 percent of which are threatened perhaps by over 4°C, this century compared the need to modify practices and consume less with extinction, including one in four mammals with its pre-industrial level.160 As Rajendra carbon, including by imposing strict quotas on

27 total energy consumption and targets on energy energy sectors would provide a significant agreement. Initiatives can include domestic efficiency.167 Trial cap-and-trade systems step forward. This should be complemented carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems, have begun in five Chinese cities and two by greater commitment to initiatives like the temporary border carbon adjustments provinces.168 Other countries and regions have Natural Resource Charter and the Extractive (removed upon the assumption of a global adopted or are designing comprehensive carbon Industries Transparency Initiative, which price), a moratorium on new coal stations taxes or cap-and-trade systems.169 The United foster sustainable and transparent extraction that do not use the most effective available States has introduced tougher standards for of minerals and other natural resources.173 technologies for reducing emissions (except power plants and taken steps to end financial • Technology: Government and business in rare economic circumstances), halting support for new coal-fired plants overseas.170 investment into integrated research and deforestation and other land conversion, Collectively, however, we remain some distance development (R&D) and long-term systems reforestation, promotion of renewable from where we need to be. approaches uniting food, energy, water and energy, public transport improvements, land use and biodiversity preservation need tighter rules on energy efficiency, and Whilst it is impressive that many countries, cities, to increase considerably. Incentivising new more investment into R&D. The focus need

provinces, firms, communities and individuals technologies that offer alternatives to existing not solely be on CO2 emissions: tackling are acting, overall progress is far too slow. resource-intensive “locked-in” technologies, other pollutants is an important, and often International undertakings and agreements, and measuring available “stockpiles” of overlooked, part of the overall effort.179 together with national and local action, support renewable energy would make a significant • International collaboration and exchange: each other. Debates about climate change contribution.174 Large prizes to drive Credible incentives for, and investment in, need to be recalibrated so that their focus is innovative solutions on pre-defined climate cleaner energy infrastructure for poor and opportunity, and to ensure progress does not and sustainability goals could be considered, developing countries is urgently required. rely disproportionately on a unanimously agreed perhaps as a substitute (or top-up) for The Green Climate Fund, established in outcome at the UNFCCC. Internationally, the best intellectual property rights.175 2010 and aimed at helping developing case scenario is a multilateral agreement by 2015 • Transfer and consumption: Excessive countries transition to low emission and that will come into effect by 2020. This might consumption in the developed world must climate resilient economic development, be too late. Fortunately, much can happen in the be reduced, whilst food waste in developing promises much on this, but fundraising has interim if communities, businesses, governments countries should be addressed in order to been slow and the operational system needs and the media work together to shift individual close the yield gap. Global food, water and to be scaled up. Technology sharing must and market behaviour towards a safer trajectory. energy systems need to work together also be prioritised, particularly on waste and New actors should be engaged, and other to generate sustainable pathways that clean energy. The creation of a “ pollutants tackled.171 There are understandable enhance resource security. Agriculture holds project” on new energy and support of a tensions between developed and developing vast potential for rural development, yet step-up in modelling would add greatly to countries about the burden of mitigation, landscapes need to be managed to support understanding the uncertain and uneven particularly at the cost of economic development multiple functions and the fair exploitation of dynamics and consequences of climate in poorer countries. Similarly, how poor countries natural resources.176 Yields could potentially change, as would clearer communication on withstand the devastating effects of climate be benchmarked and regulated alongside the science and possible consequences of change, arguably caused by richer countries, carbon sequestration, nutrient density, climate change. is also a major challenge. The architecture of biodiversity conservation, and resilience to • Smaller groupings: The United Nations a global agreement is complex, much more so climate fluctuations. Framework Convention on Climate than the Montreal Protocol, which addressed the Change (UNFCCC) needs reform. A few depletion of the ozone layer. Concerted action at On carbon: countries are holding up vital progress the city, company and country level will be vital for all. Mechanisms need to be found to in creating the necessary dynamics for effective • New actors, multiple targets: A global allow multi-track solutions and coalitions multilateral action. carbon price, reflecting the extent of of like-minded countries to begin to make adjustment required to achieve an agreed progress on common agreements. Technical

What could be done? amount of total or per capita CO2 that expertise and smaller group meetings to can be emitted over time, will be vital to advance negotiations must be prioritised. On resource futures: drive the scale of investment needed in The unbundling of different dimensions of low-carbon infrastructure.177 Realistically, the agreement, to reduce complexity and • Transparency: There should be greater this is sometime off and will require allow progress on certain tracks, may also be transparency, including in commodity greater support and more concerted helpful. trading, declaration of national reserves, and action from China and the United States. land purchases in less developed countries. (Although the United States has reduced Phasing out fossil fuel and agricultural its emissions, a sharper reduction in United subsidies is well overdue.172 If taken up, States per capita emissions and a more Chatham House’s proposal for a new rapid slowing of the growth in China’s per Resource 30 (or R30) group comprising the capita emissions is required.)178 Action by leading importers and exporters of natural groups of cities, countries and companies, resources to enhance transparency, security aided by international coordination, could and accessibility across the food, water, and spur renewed momentum toward a global

28 Health

1990 Mean rank 2010 Mean rank % Change

1 Lower respiratory infections 1 Ischemic heart disease 29% 2 Diarrheal diseases 2 Lower respiratory infections -44% 3 Preterm birth complications 3 Stroke 19% 4 Ischemic heart disease 4 Diarrheal diseases -51% 5 Stroke 5 HIV/AIDS 354% 6 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 6 Low back pain 43% 7 Malaria 7 Malaria 21% 8 Tuberculosis 8 Preterm birth complications -27% 9 Protein-energy malnutrition 9 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease -2% 10 Neonatal encephalopathy 10 Road injury 34% 11 Low back pain 12 Neonatal encephalopathy -17% 12 Road injury 13 Tuberculosis -19% 33 HIV/AIDS 20 Protein-energy malnutrition -42%

Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders Non-communicable diseases Injury

Figure 18: Changes in the global burden of disease 1990–2010 Note: These rankings refer to “Disability Adjusted Life Cycles”: the number of years lost due to early death, disability or poor health. Source: Information adapted from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, “GBD 2010 Change in Leading Causes and Risks Between 1990 and 2010”, http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/gbd/visualizations/gbd-2010-change-leading-causes-and-risks-between-1990-and-2010.

For richer or poorer? and issues of intergenerational fairness. Health Nowadays, NCDs like diabetes, heart disease, Raising access, changing systems can no longer be constructed based stroke and cancer similarly threaten health. The consumption habits and uniting on historical needs; they must be developed reality is that there is no single cure or cause against pandemics cognisant of the changing disease burden profile for NCDs. Yet “common, modifiable risk factors” that is likely for the future.181 are known about many NCDs, including obesity, The past two decades have witnessed significant overconsumption of unhealthy foods and changes in the burden of disease: NCDs now For every eight people in the world today, alcohol, and lack of physical activity. Solutions take the greatest toll on life, even if infectious one still goes to bed hungry each night.182 focused on risk prevention are said to be “highly diseases (especially HIV/AIDS) continue to pose Consumption of food in other parts of the world cost-effective”,188 including the promotion of a major threat to health. For the time being, is well above the level that can be sustained.183 good nutrition, regular exercise and avoiding resources remain stretched or unavailable in It is estimated we will “need two or three excessive consumption. NCDs are extremely the developing world, whilst the health issues ” if everybody adopted “Western” levels expensive. Illnesses related to obesity cost the associated with older and heavier populations of consumption over the coming century.184 United Kingdom’s National Health Service (NHS) dominate health sector spending in the over GBP £5 billion per year and generate 70 developed world.180 Deep global inequalities Bigger than tobacco percent of health costs in the United States,189 persist in access to food, sanitation, vaccines and where obesity prevalence is increasing for all health care. Demographic changes – principally Almost 60 years ago Richard Doll and Austin adult income and education levels.190 In Samoa, ageing and population growth – in conjunction Bradford-Hill identified smoking as a reason roughly 75 percent of adult deaths come from with longer life expectancy will produce a rising for excess risk of various diseases, especially NCDs. If the government paid for dialysis for dependency ratio between workers and non- lung cancer.185 Increasing recognition of the everyone that needs it, the bill would total more workers over the coming decades. Chronic harmful effects of smoking facilitated a growing than twelve times the country’s Gross National disease, increasing levels of dementia and anti-smoking campaign. Awareness culminated Income.191 mental illness already impact public finances in the UN Framework Convention on Tobacco significantly, but will do so to an even greater Control, the most widely and rapidly embraced It is unclear whether education campaigns degree in the decades ahead, not least in many treaty in history, now boasting 176 signatory and interventions placing responsibility on developing countries. Managing these changes states.186 Countries that have implemented the the individual will make a great impact on requires difficult spending choices and challenges Convention have tackled tobacco better than NCDs.192 No single action or policy – a tax governmental capacity to provide basic health others. Nevertheless, one billion people (one- on certain foods, school menus, advertising care and other vital services. Decisions and seventh of the world’s population) still smoke, restrictions, calorie labelling or size limits – is allocations will raise hard questions about both with rates as high as 52 percent of adult men in itself sufficient.193 The challenge becomes more the redistribution of resources within populations East Asia and the Pacific.187 difficult when one realises the food industry is

29 three times bigger than the tobacco industry.194 driving factor” in nearly 40 percent of infectious pharmaceutical companies practice tiered As Margaret Chan, Director-General of the disease outbreaks internationally.204 pricing (however, this is not yet the case for World Health Organization (WHO), commented non-communicable diseases, notably cancer). recently: “It is not just Big Tobacco anymore. Competing bedfellows Notwithstanding these efforts, some reforms Public health must also contend with Big Food, appear to be too slow or piecemeal.212 Big Soda, and Big Alcohol”.195 Tension persists in health between , provides a good example of a major city’s cooperation and control. Without a Enhancing cooperation and coherence successful response to NCDs. The city has that the investment will deliver adequate implemented a smoking ban in public places, returns, private innovation slows. Fewer Historically, health has been a great role model banned trans-fat in food, and pushed for the drugs are hitting the market and those that for international cooperation and coherence display of calories in restaurants.196 do are marketed as “super-drugs” that can between domestic and global systems.213 As good nutrition, sustainable development be used by a broad middle-class consumer Such synergies, however, have not kept pace and GDP are closely related, developing base, such as cholesterol lowering statins. with globalisation. The WHO is the most likely healthier lifestyles is a responsibility not just Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly candidate to streamline global health governance, for individuals but for societies as a whole, focused on incremental variations to existing but regional subsidiaries and a handful of donors with increasing healthcare costs and decreased drugs, rather than new for today’s have a powerful influence on its finances and productivity representing the major negative health challenges. The last few decades have programmes. The WHO’s primary power is in externalities of the obesity epidemic.197 been described as a “persistent antibiotic- setting and suggesting standards, not enforcing development drought”, with only two new them, and in data collection and dissemination. Infectious diseases classes developed in the past 30 years.205 The private sector plays an increasing role, While 75 percent of new molecular entities while philanthropists and NGOs ensure there are The extreme danger of a population-crippling created in the past 10 years can be traced back multiple, though not always complementary, pandemic remains very real. SARS, swine flu, the to state-funded labs or university research, it avenues for aid. New and reinvigorated avenues prevalence of HIV and Hepatitis C infections, is industry that develops new medicines and of cooperation are necessary to stem the burden and the persistence of malaria and cholera brings them to the market.206 Countries have of disease, including through greater sharing of demonstrate the need for enhanced systems different priorities and relative power in dealing knowledge by individuals and networks. In an age management to deal with worldwide threats with the pharmaceutical industry. A report of strained public research budgets, incentives to health. The threat posed by infectious by the Grattan Institute suggested Australia for both private and public sectors to encourage diseases will only grow with up to two billion pays AUD$1.3 billion too much per year for new innovations and foster greater collaboration people projected to be living in slums by 2030, prescription drugs, with one particular drug in are much needed, particularly as technology urbanisation concentrating human contact, costing less than 4 percent of the enables the physiology and granularity of disease antimicrobial resistance on the rise198 and Australian price.207 A number of countries, such to be better understood. Action cannot only be bioterrorism an increasing danger.199 Another as Brazil, have provided access to cheaper drugs top-down: priorities and responsibilities must be looming concern is new and re-emerging through the use of generics.208 Uncertainty embraced at a national, local and individual level, diseases evolving to become drug resistant, surrounding access and profit were influential and must be coordinated to ensure needs are such as drug resistant tuberculosis.200 in Indonesia’s reluctance, beginning in January met and resources are well spent. 2007, to cooperate on a vaccine during the The International Health Regulations, negotiated avian flu crisis.209 What could be done? by the WHO and binding 193 States Parties, present a mechanism for states to “prevent, Solid strides have been made over the past • NCDs: Measurable targets for reducing NCDs protect against, control and provide a public century in improving access to key medicines, – such as a 30 percent reduction in relative health response to the international spread of but the competing demands outlined mortality from NCDs by 2030 – could be a disease” and “avoid unnecessary interference above have meant that progress has been core part of the post-2015 development with international traffic and trade.”201 In inconsistent. The creation of a separate and agenda,214 with networks and institutions addition, several global outbreak detection relatively successful Global Fund to tackle AIDS, responding to the social determinants systems are now functioning, using traditional Tuberculosis and Malaria was a response to of health.215 The WHO could convene and social media monitoring and allowing this, as is the GAVI Alliance’s important work on negotiations among interested partners to evermore prompt detection of outbreaks. immunisation and the United States President’s establish a Framework Convention or Code Should another pandemic arise, however, it Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.210 Trilateral of Practice on Alcohol Control.216 Regulatory is doubtful sufficient global capacity exists cooperation between the WTO, the World interventions are only one possible course of to deal with the loss of life, resulting panic Intellectual Property Organisation and WHO to action. Attention could be directed towards and the potentially crippling effects on the promote greater access to health technologies initiatives, including within education, world economy.202 The connectivity and just- and innovation is working towards a further infrastructure and markets, that prompt in-time pressures generated by globalisation harmonisation of interests.211 Over the last changes to diets and lifestyles over the long make these threats more acute, and magnify decade, major pharmaceutical companies have term, particularly those that stretch demand the ramifications of poor coordination.203 Too fostered greater access to new medicines in for the most resource intensive types of much of the current focus appears reactionary, low-income countries, particularly for drugs food and energy.217 despite evidence showing “a breakdown or combating infectious diseases such as HIV and • Infectious diseases: Renewed focus on absence of public health infrastructure was the tuberculosis. Today, nearly all of the biggest infectious diseases in the post-2015

30 Geopolitics

agenda should encourage ongoing action in Compete or collaborate? especially in per capita terms, emerging powers the area of HIV, TB, malaria and neglected Managing change and uncertainty are gaining prominence on the global stage. infectious diseases such as dengue fever cooperatively, navigating power History tells us power transitions present and different worm infections, with new transitions productively immense geopolitical challenges. In this respect, targets and partnerships.218 The WHO’s the Sino-American relationship is this century’s 2005 International Health Regulations Nations have historically tended to pursue most important bilateral partnership. We concur (IHR) need to be made operational at both self‑interest instead of working together for with the experts who suggest China’s rise need the national level and across borders to a mutual benefit. Since the Second World War, not be seen as threatening, and would welcome much greater extent, given the nature of the balance has slowly shifted: the incidence wider recognition that China and Asia’s stake in the epidemics. Further IHR revisions could of cooperative behaviour, particularly within the world necessitates greater engagement in be considered in order to provide specifics institutions and through international rules and global institutions and cooperation to address on immediate action; rapid diagnosis and regulations, has grown. Although traditional critical challenges.225 Although power shifts intervention teams; shared R&D on animal security threats remain, unconventional security do not have a good track record, no aspiring and human pathogens; a regulatory regime dilemmas are on the rise and require greater resembles in 1914 or for safety and security; and consistency in levels of international cooperation. Adversaries the during the Cold War. Peace local, national and international practices. continue to emerge in greater numbers from prospers to a far greater degree. Power is The WHO should consider setting up individuals or networks and seek to cause or more diffuse than ever. The convergence regional rapid response teams that can provoke violence on an industrial scale. Risks should be embraced, not resisted. More global better connect with outbreak alert arising from natural and synthetically created conversations, less anachronistic policies and an networks monitoring social media and local pandemics, climate change, cyber attacks and agreed global ethic are essential for a one-world rumours. Correcting deficiencies (or voids) other cross-border threats are more intense, theory to emerge triumphant.226 in infrastructure (such as surveillance, rapid and complex than many previous threats, diagnostic capacities, individual awareness, with increased integration and rising populations Virtual tensions reporting avenues, sanitation, and control and incomes compounding the risks of contagion provisions) in the event of threats to public and cascading . New age connectivity When President Obama met the new Chinese health should be prioritised.219 Encouraging necessitates new age solidarity.223 States will President, , in California in June innovations in vaccine distribution, such have legitimate claims to put themselves first, 2013, cyber security was high on the agenda. as creating vaccines that are stable in but this century’s challenges cannot be dealt with The potential for cybercrime and cyber fluctuating temperatures, or utilising pre- by states acting alone. Outward looking policies aggression within the digital world is relatively existing infrastructure such as refrigeration, and collaboration are required. unconstrained by jurisdictional boundaries as well as the mass production of dry and virtually unregulated by government vaccines,220 will enable greater penetration Sharing power agencies or frameworks. State-directed of immunisation programmes into the most cyber espionage is alleged to target political remote parts of the world.221 China looks set to overtake the United States and military enterprises, and many states • Pharmaceuticals: More pharmaceutical as the world’s biggest economy, potentially assert their private sector is subject to cyber companies could commit to tiered prices as early as 2016.224 While few doubt the attacks. Individuals are increasingly victims of based on national income, and grant voluntary EVOLUTIONcontinued strength OF THEof the EARTH’S United States, ECONOMIC cybercrime.CENTER OF There GRAVITY is renewed AD1 suspicion TO 2025 about licenses to enable local production in low- Source: Richard Dobbs at al, Urban WOrld: Cities an dthe Rise of the Consuming Class (San Francisco: McKinsey Global income countries. Further reforms to the Institute, 2012) p.17 pricing of drugs to incorporate outcomes should also be considered, along with public- 1970 private partnerships to share the costs and 1990 2000 1980 revenue of drug development. Pharmaceutical 1960 companies could give access to drug trial 1950 1940 2010 results, provided privacy concerns are 1913 respected, for greater insight into negative as well as positive results. Rights to patent Note: Economic centre of gravity is calculated by weighting locations 2025 natural DNA, as opposed to its exploitation, by GDP in three dimensions and could be restricted, as demonstrated by the projected to the nearest point on United States Supreme Court in its June 2013 the Earth’s surface. The surface 1820 decision.222 Reforms to IP rules should be projection of the centre of gravity shifts north over the course of the developed to ensure adequate protection and 1500 century, reflecting the fact that in AD 1 enforcement of rights alongside incentives three-dimensional space America 1000 for innovation and faster access to cheaper and Asia are not only “next” to each other, but also “across” from medicines in poor countries. each other. .Figure 19: Evolution of the Earth’s economic centre of gravity AD 1–2025 Source: Richard Dobbs et al, Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class (San Francisco: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012), p. 17.

31 the reach of surveillance tools used by states some thrive due to their endurance – but it the lead time required before the commitments to monitor cyber interactions, just as there is is clear many current institutions could be of emerging economies match those of the greater fear on the part of governments about reformed to better reflect the demands of the advanced economies, and what sort of support the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to new century. Should this occur, countries might should be extended to the poorest countries to cyber attack. The cost of cybercrime in just be more willing to delegate greater power to hasten their development. Momentum has also 24 countries is estimated to cost the global them. They will also be in a better position to stalled partly because of a flawed but powerful economy USD $274 billion per year.227 Threats decide which forum is best for which issues, and belief that open borders hurt local economies emerging from cyberspace are considered one generate the authority and legitimacy to match. and increase poverty, despite strong evidence of the most serious economic and national This will reduce forum shopping and ensure to the contrary. Rising restrictions on the security challenges states will face this century. activities can be optimised for the issues at hand. movement of people can also be an obstacle to Online aggression could trigger conventional economic growth, compromising the dynamism military conflicts. Opening up of many economies and efforts to reduce poverty.234 Action to enhance cyber security will require The international community remains divided on collaboration. Coordination within and across the direction of trade opening. The vast increase What could be done? national boundaries (not least in evidence in trade opportunities has not been matched gathering) will be vital if cyber threats are to by a commitment to update trade rules for the • Sharing power: The United States and China be addressed. This is not an issue where cyber 21st century. Paralysis rather than progress should work together to set a safer and capacity, be it offensive or defensive, can has been the norm in the 12 years since the sustainable course, establishing agreements be easily compared to security threats that launch of the Development Round, which in areas such as climate change, and existed during the Cold War; this is not like has revealed stark differences over precisely maintaining regional peace and stability. building a warhead, maintaining a military, or how to progress the trade agenda, especially • Reinvigorated institutions: Reform of our enriching . Low costs of entry could in the developing world. Although there was an 20th century institutions well mean the cyber domain is the predominant increase in protectionist measures following the is overdue. Measures could include new site for asymmetric warfare: combatants are Financial Crisis, they remained minor irritations permanent members and semi‑permanent just as likely to be non-states, who exploit rather than a frontal assault on trade. Instead, members of the UN Security Council; voting deficient infrastructure elsewhere. Threats bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements have changes in the Bretton Woods institutions could emanate from places where information meant that trade advances have come through and other multilateral organisations on cyber protection is insufficiently shared or these achievements, rather than what was so that emerging economies possess inadequately developed. This is particularly the thought to be possible via the Doha Round, the proportionate power; using merit instead case in African and South American markets conclusion of which is estimated to be worth of geography to determine the leaders of where technology is spreading fast. Deficient an additional USD $280 billion annually to multilateral institutions; and reinvigorating cyber infrastructure is not just an issue in global GDP.230 As of January 2013, over 540 the G20 so it is effective outside times of developing countries; recent reports indicate regional trade agreements have been received crisis and influential on issues like climate “four in five of the United Kingdom’s largest by the WTO, with over 350 of these in force. change.235 This could include reassessing and quoted companies are not prepared for cyber Some of these buttress and boost momentum strengthening the role of sherpas to ensure attacks”.228 The need to develop capacity on multilateral trade efforts; others are alleged leaders focus on priority issues, and ensuring throughout the world to enhance the security to undermine them.231 Several commentators a portion of each G20 meeting is devoted to of the cyber domain is paramount. have found hope in the renewed commitment establishing a common agenda for the longer of the and the United States term.236 Reflecting power to push for a free by 2015,232 • Modernising trade: Immediate action with along with the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the long-term benefits could be taken by China is not the only new power this century. Asia-Pacific and the Regional Comprehensive cutting customs red tape (reducing this by India, Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, South Africa Economic Partnership in East Asia between half would have the same economic effect and Indonesia are just some of the others ASEAN and its Free Trade Partners. Such as removing all tariffs); rolling back the touted as emerging powers. Most international initiatives have potential if all countries work trade restrictive measures imposed during institutions, however, operate under 20th together cooperatively and collaboratively; if the Financial Crisis;237 and coming to a century geopolitical arrangements, with two they do not, they risk damaging global trade quid pro quo on agricultural and industrial serious shortcomings. The first is countries even further. tariffs. Completing the Doha package with a diminishing stake retain disproportionate would renew global trade systems, whilst power. The second is there are almost four The Doha Round has broken down because of further important actions are required with times as many countries, along with new the differences among just a few advanced regards to investment competition, export networks and NGOs, at many decision-making and emerging economies, not because of the restrictions, corruption and energy. tables. Both realities endure at a time when the “consensus” problem. Our Commission Chair, • Confronting cyber: Work must continue issues are more connected and complicated.229 the former Director-General of the WTO, Pascal on developing rules for cybercrime and They combine to shut important countries or Lamy, argues that those who declare Doha cyberwar, building on recent UN progress institutions out of key decisions and undermine dead are missing the point of a process that is which affirmed that international law is meaningful dialogue. Longevity does not unique amongst trade negotiations in having applicable in cyberspace.238 There are necessarily make institutions redundant – indeed, development at its core.233 Key disputes include considerable gaps in the emerging legal

32 Governance

1.0 architecture that need to be addressed, New alongside further harmonisation of existing Spain France US Germany Zealand regional treaties.239 States should step up 0.9 their efforts to build cyber capacity and Greece Britain resilience in developing regions. Increasing Japan Singapore 0.8 Russia Brazil efforts could be directed to remedying Barbados deficient governance structures that have implications for digital lives, and updating 0.7 regulations (including in taxation and data Venezuela China Botswana protection) to clarify where responsibility 0.6 lies.240 Systems should be designed with South Africa Cape Verde citizens firmly in mind, assisting them to India Myanmar Bhutan maintain optimal security and protect their 0.5 online activities and information.241 Sudan Rwanda 0.4

Human Development Index, 2011 (1 = best) Human Development 0.3 Congo

0.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Corruption Perceptions Index, 2011 (10 = least corrupt) OECD Central & Eastern Europe R2 = 56% Middle East & North Africa Asia & Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa

Figure 20: Global corruption and human development, 2011 Source: The Economist, “Corrosive Corruption”, 2 Dec 2011 http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/12/corruption- and-development.

Constructive or corrupt? improved governance. One estimate suggests Accurate measurements, shared an improvement of one standard deviation language and a longer-term focus can nearly triple per capita income across a population, delivering substantial reductions Two about governance and corruption in infant mortality and illiteracy.242 What has have been dispelled over the past two decades. become clear, however, is that countries follow One is that they cannot be measured. The quite different transition paths (even those World Bank now examines over 350 variables within the same region); one needs to dig into on governance across more than 200 the data and conduct in-depth, in-country countries, principally through its Worldwide diagnostics to determine what remedial action Governance Indicators (WGIs). They measure is necessary for improved governance.243 how authority is exercised across six indicators: voice and accountability; political stability Pathway from poverty and the absence of major violence and terror; government effectiveness; regulatory Kaufman’s latest initiative, the Resource quality; rule of law; and control of corruption. Governance Index (RGI), measures transparency Transparency International’s Corruption and accountability in the oil, gas and mining Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Ibrahim Index sectors of 58 countries, which collectively of African Governance (IIAG) provide additional produce 85 percent of the world’s petroleum, examples of efforts to measure standards of 90 percent of diamonds and 80 percent of governance and corruption, difficult though copper.244 The 2013 RGI revealed 80 percent that task may be. Another dispelled is of those countries “fail to achieve good that good governance and anti-corruption governance in their extractive sectors”, a gap efforts are “overrated”. The WGIs, developed that “extends to state-owned companies, by Kaufman and others, revealed a natural resource funds and subnational significant “development dividend” from transfers”.245 Of course, the world’s natural

33 resources do not only flow from rich countries indicators should come with a “health warning”, save”.253 Put simply: businesses can no longer such as Australia, or . Zambia, emphasising their caveats and limitations.249 operate within a “business as usual” mindset that Ghana, Mali, Nigeria and Angola are examples of The measurements and data matter most prejudices short-term returns over longer-term poorer countries with large amounts of natural where countries or companies feel vulnerable sustainability. Longer-term planning timeframes resources. Large, untapped resource pools will and are motivated to reform existing practices. must be ingrained into our business practices, likely be found elsewhere. Natural resources can The governance gap is still holding too many planning and cultures. Several companies have be transformative if appropriately harnessed. countries back, particularly in the management already taken significant strides; Unilever is This can lead to an effective pathway out of natural resources. The targeting of corruption one that has taken the lead in shifting its focus of poverty or prove to be a curse on poor (including legal corruption) as an impediment to towards sustainability and the long-term.254 countries. Too many resource rich countries good governance needs particular attention. Tackling the future requires systemic reform of have remained poor despite their endowment: the current capitalist growth model and providing poor governance structures and short-sighted, a pathway for the financial sector “to reassert often corrupt, decisions on the part of both a client service culture that values long-term foreign and local players can ensure countries The June 2013 G8 and July 2013 G20 relationships and emphasises the duty of care”.255 miss “one-off” chances to foster a prosperous declarations on tax evasion challenge long- and economically sustainable future before standing practices of shifting profits to avoid Shared language resources are depleted. Here, the priority cannot taxes, a lack of transparency on tax havens, be simply to diagnose gaps in good governance, insufficient clarity on company ownership, During the last century, shared language it must primarily be to develop governance and the non-reporting of payments made by became increasingly important. By this we do capacity in response to such deficiencies. extractive companies to governments.250 These not mean Chinese, English or , but the realities combine to exacerbate the governance language contained in international treaties and Accurate measurements gap and prevent much-needed growth within regulations. International law is now ubiquitous: developing countries. Action to address such shared language on law and human rights has A recent World Bank study of Africa called long-standing practices along with further been essential to humanitarian progress. Agreed on governments to invest the benefits of the cultural, structural and procedural changes standards on aviation ensure air travel is safer resources “windfall” to increase economic remain overdue. This includes addressing than ever before. Coordination on radiation opportunities and improve health and the short-termism that dominates much of enables levels around the world to be compared education, especially for young and future the private sector and reorienting company and exposures regulated. Shared answers on generations.246 The report claimed that the priorities and performance towards a longer the risks posed by halogenated hydrocarbons benefits of recent economic growth in Africa time horizon. enabled agreement on protecting the ozone had failed to reach the poorest segments of layer. On the other hand, a lack of shared society, with the number of impoverished The public sector does not have a monopoly on language and coordination can be divisive. people increasing in some resource rich poor governance. Dominic Barton, Managing To take just one example: migration. States countries. A natural ally in this quest is Director of McKinsey & Company, has explained that have ratified at least one of the three improving governance capacity. Experts that “much of what went awry before and after international instruments related to migrant have identified “complexity and corruption of the Financial Crisis stemmed from failures of workers hosted less than a third of the total bureaucratic procedures”, “instability of national governance, decision-making, and leadership global migrant population in 2010. In other regulations” and “low levels of political stability” within companies”.251 The problem, however, words, states that had ratified none of the as the top three barriers to renewable energy did not start and certainly did not end with the applicable instruments hosted over two thirds investment in Africa.247 Governance indicators Financial Crisis. The private sector remains the of the world’s migrants, ensuring many were have the potential to shift decision-making strongest source of growth and jobs (creating insufficiently protected.256 by correcting information asymmetries and 9 of every 10 jobs in the developing world),252 changing incentive structures. Such indicators but some businesses continue to undermine the As the challenges become more complex and have provided crucial information to decision- sustainability of the planet. Vested interests and connected, the world’s capacity to agree a makers and helped focus attention on good “legal corruption” in the form of pork barrelling common legal and rights language to make governance in policymaking. The growth and tax avoidance play a negative role. this century more peaceful and prosperous is of governance indices has also generated vital. Here, leaders and lawmakers must think momentum and awareness about reducing Private sector governance reform is especially carefully about the type of legal regulation most corruption. important for resource sustainability. conducive to progress. Shared language need Unsustainable growth models continue to not prevent devolution to the lowest levels to Despite great intentions, the diagnostic tools heighten instability across financial systems and ensure communities can tackle agreed problems are not enough. Current indicators suffer from threaten geopolitical unrest. Without a greener, in their own fashion, but towards a collective several challenges, both in data quality and longer‑sighted growth model, the environment end. This requires a certain level of discretion, theoretical grounding, and are often based on will become increasingly unbalanced, expensive flexibility and perhaps even simplicity to be perceptions.248 Such indicators can also obscure or extinct. The recent auction of a Bluefin tuna in built into national and multilateral rules and the subtleties of difference between sector Tokyo for a record amount of GBP £1.09 million agreements.257 At a minimum, however, agreed specific forms of governance and disregard (USD$1.7 million), for example, heightened rules must be implemented effectively at the potential varieties in what good governance concerns that market signals could result in domestic level. may entail. It has been suggested that many certain species being viewed as “too valuable to

34 What could be done? A rethinking of corporate governance so that owners and boards embrace longer-term On public sector governance responsibilities is also required.262 This involves smarter regulation, remuneration tied to long- • Improving indicators: Attention must be term performance, and voting structures that devoted to improving the transparency, reward long-term growth. There is a pressing consistency, scope and availability of need for a market recalibration of private baseline governance indicators, with and societal interest that properly accounts particular focus on making more governance for their interdependence. This necessitates indicators results-based. Existing indicators reforming accounting frameworks and should also give countries greater ownership performance measurements – including by of the process. The Ibrahim Index is a useful developing long-term “health” metrics263 model in this respect for assisting regions – so that they respond to social needs, to create data autonomy. Producers of foster innovation and investment towards existing indicators should make explicit sustainable ends, and appropriately engender the theoretical assumptions behind their a longer-term view.264 variables so that users are more aware of their limitations. • Governance guidance and transparency: Multi-stakeholder groups could be formed to help countries that do not improve governance and anti-corruption scores and request assistance. Remedial action should be decentralised where possible to local actors, with countries facing similar challenges “paired” to ensure useful lessons from comparable past transitions are properly shared.258 The Natural Resource Charter provides a powerful template “to help governments and citizens harness natural resources wealth by making decisions that will provide the maximum sustained economic benefit”.259 Efforts to reduce tax evasion and improve transparency begun at the June 2013 G8 meeting and carried forward at G20 meetings in July and September 2013 should be actively pursued.260 • Embracing technology: The possibilities presented by smart phone applications, social media, big data and other technologies should be leveraged to enhance transparency and accountability within governments and community organisations. Most simply, this might involve reaching the widest audience by making information available in as many formats and institutions as possible. More ambitiously, technology can be used to increase civic engagement in policy development, enabling a more inclusive and empowered society.

On private sector governance

• Rewire businesses for the long term: Business incentives could be realigned towards a longer horizon by rolling back the weight attached to mark-to-market accounting, quarterly earnings and short-term incentive bonuses.261

35 Part B: Responsible Futures

36 Looking Back to Look Forward Lessons from Previous Successes

This Commission the scale of today’s While gridlock and inaction persist in a number Responsibility to Protect (R2P) gained greater challenges means countries and organisations of spheres, it is important to draw inspiration traction and was formally enshrined by the UN need to enhance, and prioritise, their capacity to from the remarkable progress made last century World Summit in 2005.7 On a related front, think and act with a longer-term perspective. In in addressing seemingly intractable challenges. temporary ad hoc tribunals established in the Part A, we identified a number of the The following examples were not unequivocal 1990s strengthened support for a permanent megatrends and challenges that will shape our successes, but they illustrate key factors that international court for the prosecution of war future, and explored some of the responses contributed to meaningful action on apparently criminals.8 Although such proposals had been that are already available. In Part B, Responsible insurmountable challenges. floated since 1948, the International Criminal Futures, we aim to shed light on why gridlock Court was formally established in 2002. prevails where action is imperative. We seek to understand the factors that are undermining Crisis Mobilisation in response to crises has not always political will to act, despite the urgency and been reactive: the international community extent of the problems. In this first section, we As the creation of the UN and the Bretton has also anticipated major disasters. Action begin by identifying key lessons from historical Woods system after the Second World War has often been predicated upon the threat examples where impediments to action have illustrates, crisis is often a stimulant for action. of potential crises, rather than a crisis itself. been successfully overcome. The elements Crises provide moments of opportunity. They The prospect that all of the world’s digitised contributing to success include the necessity can propel ideas from the margins to the systems would malfunction at the stroke of for action created by crisis, the power of mainstream and lead to the acceleration of midnight ushering in the year 2000 (due to the mutual interests, individual leadership, and the much needed reforms.1 Even in the context abbreviation of four-digit dates to two digits) establishment of effective partnerships. By of deep ideological division during the Cold was perhaps magnified by parties who sought contrast, the elements which have contributed War, leaders reached across the Iron Curtain to encourage business to spend on mitigation. to gridlock and failure to act include the following the Cuban Missile Crisis to promote The so-called Y2K problem, which many argue “tragedy of the commons”, vested interests, international security. The resulting Limited Test was overstated, was nevertheless seen to lack of intergenerational oversight and an Ban Treaty of 1963 and the Non-Proliferation constitute enough of a threat to prompt the absence of vision. By drawing on these historical Treaty of 1968 contained the spread of nuclear Basel Committee, the Bank for International examples of success and failure, the second weapons. Settlements and other partners to create the section of Part B draws out the implications for Year 2000 Network. The Network was charged bridging the gap between knowledge and action More recently, in the aftermath of the 2008 with developing coordinated national strategies, and enabling a longer-term focus. global Financial Crisis, the G20’s action to avert publishing policy papers, and providing guidance a global depression and restore confidence in and recommendations to the public and private the international financial system was hailed as sectors to help Y2K preparations.9 In the span a watershed for multilateral cooperation.2 The of six months of swift and effective action, the G20 arose out of the Asian Financial Crisis of Network coordinated efforts between different the late 1990s in order for finance ministers nations and sectors to guard against the feared and central bank governors to deliberate Y2K collapse. about issues impacting the global economy.3 Following the 2008 Financial Crisis it evolved into a forum for heads of government. The Shared interests flexibility, speed and scope of international cooperation to lower interest rates and Mutual interests have long been a key recapitalise the banking system in the midst of ingredient of cooperation and progress. A the crisis was unprecedented.4 Moreover, the confluence of interests between nations, establishment of the Financial Stability Board businesses, and trade unions was a key factor (FSB) in 2009 provided an additional lever for underpinning the Single Market Programme’s global governance of the financial sector, even (SMP’s) success in transforming the European if subsequent developments have dampened Union “from an organisation in crisis to one expectations about the transformative power that was able to attain some remarkable of either the G20 or FSB.5 agreements”.10 The SMP attracted businesses by reducing non-tariff trade barriers and Outside finance, sometimes tragedy is the limiting changes to industries that were price paid for reform. In the early 1990s, the already highly interconnected. It also preserved international community failed to respond individual state sovereignty over property rights adequately to civil war and genocide in Somalia and governance, opting instead for a system of and Rwanda. The humanitarian community mutual recognition that allowed nations to more has since worked to improve accountability, easily exchange goods and services. strengthen peace-building processes, and better integrate humanitarian interventions Combining related interests (and flexibility in across the UN system, including through The design) was also vital to the passage of the Sphere Project.6 Meanwhile, the doctrine of Helsinki Accords. Signed in 1975 to improve

37 diplomatic relations between originated within the ranks of the European the UN’s emphasis on inclusiveness enabled countries and the rest of Europe, the Accords Community in 1981 as a proposal drafted by a paradigm shift in global engagement. The were welcomed by the Soviet Union because Karl Heinz Narjes, Commissioner for the Internal Commission on Human Rights, which was they acknowledged the territorial integrity Market.19 Yet it was the election of Jacques charged with drafting the document, included of states, thereby lending legitimacy to the Delors as President in 1985 that provided a broad set of global representatives, with USSR’s post-war boundaries. At the same the leadership necessary to develop this idea China’s P. C. Chang and Lebanon’s Charles Malik time, the Accords appealed to the European and implement the SMP. After accepting his playing central roles. Although spearheaded by Community and to the United States partly nomination, Delors looked at a number of the United States, the UDHR acquired additional because they established human rights as possible projects to revitalise the European momentum from support by activists, religious norms in diplomatic relations.11 The human Community; of the options on the table, groups and politicians from smaller nations. The rights provisions proved to have a lasting including institutional reform and monetary Commission’s emphasis on global representation impact, establishing a framework for citizens in union, the SMP received the most support.20 paid off in consolidating broad support and the Eastern bloc to challenge the legitimacy of In his inaugural address to the European adherence to the declaration, with most of the the Soviet regime.12 Parliament, Delors declared “the total abolition UDHR’s provisions adopted unanimously by UN of internal frontiers remains the ultimate member nations. Overlapping interests have been important objective”.21 in generating action on the environmental Today, even the world’s more exclusive front. The 1989 Montreal Protocol to prevent Leadership also played an important role in collaborative platforms have made substantive ozone depletion was based on the shared the ratification of the Framework Convention attempts to extend decision-making power to a interest of each of its initial signatories, and, on Tobacco Control (FCTC), adopted in 2003 broader base. The G20, for example, is viewed in turn, all 197 parties. Scientific modelling as the world’s first global public health treaty. as a platform that brought rising economies had projected that without action “nearly The idea of regulating tobacco production and such as China, Brazil and India into high-level two-thirds of the earth’s ozone layer would marketing faced significant resistance, but the consultations previously the domain of the G8.26 be gone by 2065, with UV radiation up by election of Gro Harlem Brundtland in 1998 as The broader reach of the G20, and notably its 650 percent and catastrophic consequences WHO Director-General gave the FCTC overdue incorporation of emerging economies, was vital for life on Earth”.13 The Protocol achieved a traction. Brundtland made tobacco control in stabilising the financial system in 2008.27 complete phaseout of chlorofluorocarbon one of her two main priorities and successfully Taken together, G20 nations represent over 80 (CFC) production by 199614 and has resulted overcame resistance to negotiate the percent of the world’s GDP, two thirds of the in a gradual of the ozone layer.15 Convention.22 The FCTC represented a paradigm global population, and comprise 80 percent of Professor Bob Watson, whose research shift in regulating addictive substances by the world’s trade.28 influenced the Protocol, argues that one of emphasising the need to reduce demand.23 the key elements of the Protocol’s success As of 2012, two thirds of the 177 countries was the interplay between scientific experts, party to the FCTC had instituted tax policies Institutions and networks the private sector, social scientists and to limit tobacco consumption; 85 percent had large funders.16 There were other important introduced policies requiring tobacco products Inclusivity is meaningless if actors do not elements beyond shared interests, of course, to contain warnings about health risks; and 86 have an effective medium within which to including the impetus provided by the clarity countries had established comprehensive bans collaborate. Such platforms might include “sets of the scientific evidence, the flexibility of on advertising, promotion and sponsorship.24 of practices and expectations rather than the instruments, the accompanying trade Eighteen of the 25 countries that have formal organisations,”29 which function through provisions, industry involvement, and the provided the WHO with data tracking tobacco soft power engagement without imposing legal commitment by developed countries to assist consumption have seen decreased rates of adult obligations on states.30 In this respect, networks developing countries to phase out production tobacco consumption.25 have become vital. As Anne-Marie Slaughter and consumption of CFCs and halons.17 has written, networks counter the paradox of Progress was also helped by the fact that most globalisation: “We need more government on a ozone depleting substances were produced in Inclusion global and a regional scale, but we don’t want industrialised countries and there were clear the centralisation of decision-making power benefits in moving away from their use.18 Once there is a catalyst for action, a number of and coercive authority so far from the people factors contribute to successful implementation. actually to be governed.”31 As non-hierarchical Many prominent interventions have been platforms for governance and dialogue, Taking the lead characterised by inclusivity, which has secured networks create a framework for government broad buy-in from the international community. without requiring a sacrifice of Leadership can be decisive in translating In the post-Second World War period, for power.32 Inter-governmental networks facilitate shared interests into definitive action. The example, the UN and GATT (now the WTO) flexibility, speed, and information sharing. Their achievements of , Deng significantly expanded global decision-making egalitarian nature allows for more democratic Xiaoping, Martin Luther King Jr, Winston by bringing the majority of the world’s countries decision-making. By including developing Churchill and Mahatma Gandhi reveal the to the negotiating table. nations, and lending legitimacy to peripheral importance of courageous, visionary and skilful players through collaboration, networks leadership, capable of seizing the opportunity The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human facilitate equal and open dialogue and trust to propel action. Europe’s SMP, for example, Rights (UDHR) provides an illustration of how between participants.33

38 Formal institutions, even when their modus campaign proceeded, however, this strategy relies on Country Coordinating Mechanisms operandi is informality, remain vital. The gave way to a programme of ring vaccination, comprised of government, NGOs, donors, Association of Southeast Asian Nations in which outbreaks of infection were targeted, private sector, academic representatives and (ASEAN) and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation isolated and contained through the vaccination others to develop grant proposals for individual (APEC)34 are two examples of diverse but of all potentially exposed individuals. The countries.44 The boards of both organisations effective institutions working to build unity campaign exhibited adaptability and flexibility, bring together representatives from different through inter-governmental agenda setting as independent national programmes developed sectors including civil society, the UN system, the and coordination. ASEAN is a particularly useful their own operating procedures based on private sector, developing, and donor nations.45 example. Established in 1967 to promote local conditions. These programmes formed These bodies have been successful in shoring up national reconciliation in the context of regional network-like connections with the WHO, which financing to fight critical health challenges: GAVI conflict,35 ASEAN has evolved to become a developed a set of performance measures has disbursed over USD $5 billion in over 70 highly flexible institution central to stability and and standards informed by local and national countries while the Global Fund has disbursed cooperation in Asia. It was able to mobilise in practitioners. The campaign illustrated the value over USD $17 billion. By their own estimates, the aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis of information exchange along vertical axes of GAVI and the Global Fund have helped prevent to develop regional surveillance mechanisms, power and the importance of self-governance 5.5 million and 6.5 million deaths from their shore up financing to support regional amongst national and local stakeholders.41 respective diseases of focus.46 currencies, and subsequently enact successful programmes to prevent future crises.36 ASEAN’s Partnerships forged by and between the historic engagement of Myanmar, even as other Partnerships World Bank, the Global Fund, the United States states retreated and imposed sanctions, helped President’s Emergency Program for AIDS Relief facilitate the recent opening up of the country. Some of the most renowned collaborations, and the Gates Foundation have also been It will likely provide further encouragement for responsible for shaping new paradigms instrumental in the global response to HIV/AIDS. reform when Myanmar chairs ASEAN in 2014.37 in the face of grave problems and These collaborations have increased access to ASEAN’s emphasis on information sharing and international crises, have been generated by funding opportunities for governments with consensus building38 has reduced levels of partnering stakeholders from government, weak public health infrastructure and high HIV distrust and increased goodwill between diverse business, academia and civil society. The prevalence rates, and have endeavoured to nations in the region.39 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change integrate the work of national governments, (IPCC), for example, was established in multilateral and bilateral agencies, NGOs, national The coordination and flexibility that networks 1988 to provide scientific assessments of representatives, and the private sector.47 facilitate can also occur within more formalised technical, social and economic research on Thanks in part to these interventions aimed settings. The UN Economic and Social Council’s risks, consequences and ways to address at prevention and antiretroviral treatment, (ECOSOC) ad hoc advisory groups on African climate change. The IPCC’s major “assessment” there were an estimated 700,000 fewer HIV countries are one such example. First endorsed reports, produced every five to seven years, infections globally in 2011 than in 2001, with in 2002, these groups are semi-formal bring the scientific community into policy a 50 percent reduction in HIV incidence rates instruments to mobilise peace-building efforts conversations and help facilitate consensus. across many low and middle-income countries in African countries emerging from conflict, The reports have faced criticism, but their over the same period. There were also 600,000 such as Guinea-Bissau (2002) and Burundi collaborative and inclusive nature means fewer deaths due to HIV infections in 2011 than (2003). By facilitating cooperation between they “undergo more scrutiny than any other in 2005.48 Public-private partnerships have various UN agencies, including the Security documents in the ”.42 played a significant role in enabling greater access Council, and other key in-country stakeholders, Similarly, the Intergovernmental Science- to antiretroviral drugs for HIV/AIDS patients, these groups provide a voice for countries Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem pushing down prices in some countries from USD mired in conflict and bolster the UN’s capacity Services, established in 2012, facilitates the $10,000 per person per year a decade ago to to promote peace through activities such as integration of information from governments, around USD $100 today.49 disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration academia, NGOs and indigenous communities of former combatants.40 to address reductions in biodiversity and At a more local level, partnerships are also ecosystem services. proving a powerful tool in knowledge sharing The campaign to eradicate smallpox is and policy influence. Innovative networks another example in which informal networks Inspired by the smallpox success, the Global such as C40, the International Council for operating within institutional structures have Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisations (GAVI) Local Environmental Initiatives and the World facilitated successful interventions. The last and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis Association of Major Metropolises are enabling case of smallpox was reported in Somalia in and Malaria are examples of public-private city based partnerships on issues ranging from 1977, marking an extraordinary achievement partnerships that align different constituencies climate change and disaster relief, education in global health. Smallpox killed millions of working on a common problem. GAVI and the schemes and IT hubs.50 As city leaders become people annually before becoming the only Global Fund work with governments and in- increasingly assertive on the global stage, major human disease to have been completely country actors to channel resources based on there are likely to be further mechanisms for eradicated. When the WHO launched the locally determined needs. GAVI collaborates partnership and exchange on global challenges. Intensified Smallpox Eradication Programme in with health ministries in developing countries 1967, it planned to pursue a campaign of mass to contribute to national vaccine programmes vaccination in smallpox-prone countries. As the through co-financing,43 while the Global Fund

39 Goals and prizes past accomplishments, “challenge” prizes conflict and oppression. In South Africa, reward the person or organisation that first, following the end of the system In addition to having the right participants, or best, meets a defined challenge.56 Awards in 1994, the establishment of the Truth and successful interventions also require the setting such as The Google Lunar XPrize57 promote Reconciliation Commission in 1995 created a of clear, well-defined, and realistic objectives. innovation, encourage the examination of platform through which deep-seated historical The MDGs provide a useful example of clear, neglected challenges, and provide commercial subjugation could be addressed. concrete targets that can make even the opportunities.58 There has been considerable largest aims – such as eradicating extreme growth in the number of new challenge prizes in In the economic sphere, South has poverty – seem more attainable. Adopted recent years,59 with notable examples including been internationally lauded for its economic in 2001, the scale of global acceptance of the Shell Springboard,60 the Virgin Earth turnaround following the . Beginning and commitment to the MDGs has been Challenge,61 and the Microsoft BlueHat Prize.62 in the 1960s, government-orchestrated remarkable: almost all national governments and Challenge prizes are not a new phenomenon; industrialisation and export-led economic international agencies incorporated the MDGs they have been credited as contributing to the growth transformed from one as central components of their development invention of the British Spitfire aircraft,63 famed of the poorest countries in the world to a agendas.51 Broad challenges like ensuring for its role in the Allied victory in World War II, modernised and highly educated economy environmental sustainability (Goal 7) are as well as the introduction of manned private with a per capita GDP higher than that of effectively translated into tangible targets such spaceflight and the invention of margarine,64 the European Union.69 This transformation, as halving the proportion of people without amongst many other innovations. facilitated largely by technological and industrial access to safe drinking water by 2015 (Target innovation, has been so significant and so quick 10) and improving the lives of 100 million Like prizes, indices can play an important role that it has been dubbed the “Miracle on the slum dwellers by 2020 (Target 11). The GAVI in promoting best practice. As highlighted in Hangang River”.70 and Global Fund health initiatives, explored Part A, Transparency International’s Corruption above, are other examples where effective Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Mo Ibrahim Beyond South Korea, many governments targeting has helped to achieve measurable Index of African Governance (IIAG) are are seeking transformative change through outcomes. With the process now well underway examples of using indices to draw attention progressive and innovative poverty alleviation to develop a set of Sustainable Development to issues of corruption and encourage good initiatives. For example, Brazil’s poverty Goals to succeed the MDGs, it is vital that clear, governance. The 2012 CPI measured perceived alleviation campaign, headlined by the Bolsa concrete and attainable targets are maintained. levels of public sector corruption in 176 Família (Family Grant) programme, has Encouragingly, the UN Secretary General’s High- countries and territories around the world. contributed to a decline in Brazil’s absolute Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Using a scale of 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very poverty and inequality.71 Formally established Agenda has already set out comprehensive clean), the latest index found two-thirds of in 2003, Bolsa Família is the largest Conditional recommendations to eradicate extreme countries scored below 50, highlighting how Cash Transfer in the world. It utilises targeted poverty by 2030 and deliver more sustainable the global fight against corruption requires social safety nets to provide assistance to development52, whilst the UN Open Working far greater attention.65 The IIAG provides an vulnerable populations based on qualifying Group of 30 member countries and associated annual assessment of governance in every requirements that incentivise investment in taskforces are working to ensure that the country in Africa, examining safety and health, nutrition and education.72 new goals complement national development rule of law, participation and human rights, priorities.53 sustainable economic opportunity, and human India is in the process of establishing a unique development.66 It therefore not only serves as a identification scheme which seeks to assign Prestigious “recognition” awards, such as yardstick for governments, citizens, businesses, a 12-digit number, known as Aadhaar, to the Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African and other institutions to measure different every Indian resident. Under the leadership Leadership, honour individual excellence and countries’ progress, but also acts as a tool that of our Commissioner Nandan Nilekani, this highlight the importance of good role models. can assist African governments in determining ambitious programme aims to “improve the Founded in 2007 by Commissioner Mo Ibrahim, key policy priorities.67 Similarly, another leading delivery of government services and welfare, the Ibrahim Prize is the largest annually awarded initiative is the World Economic Forum’s Global reduce fraud and corruption, facilitate robust honour, with the winner receiving USD $5 Competitiveness Report. Since its launch in voting processes, and improve security”.73 million and an additional USD $200,000 per 2004, this annual report ranks countries based Such reforms will be critical in helping poorer year for life.54 The prize is focused on former on a comprehensive assessment of national communities access basic political rights, as African heads of state or government who competition worldwide, looking at the drivers of well as key services such as healthcare and have left office in the past three years, enabling productivity and prosperity.68 other welfare measures. Capitalising on India’s exceptional leaders to continue to play a public renowned technology industry, the scheme role on the continent after they relinquish has been called the most technologically and office.55 Importantly, since its establishment in National transformation organisationally complex federal identification 2007, the prize has only been awarded three effort in the world.74 Since the programme was times; the annual process has proven to be an Lessons can also be drawn from transformative rolled out in 2010, over 415 million people instructive tool in heightening attention on changes and progressive interventions on the have been allocated a unique identification leadership challenges within Africa. national level. Countries such as South Africa number.75 and Rwanda have made strides to overcome As opposed to “recognition” prizes that award deep social divisions engendered by internal India’s neighbour Bangladesh has made dramatic

40 Lessons from Failure

progress over the past two decades, and has While celebrating these successes, it is vital and develop thriving fishing industries passed done so partly because it has successfully to reflect on the lessons from the numerous favourable laws, including loans and subsidies, targeted gender inequality. Women’s failures to address major challenges. As Part A which encouraged the rise of large-scale participation in the workforce is now more than demonstrates, increased interconnectedness industrial fishing operations. Global gross double that of India, and school participation means that there are a rising number of revenue from the market value of marine and literacy rates are now higher for girls than challenges that cannot be resolved by nations fisheries was conservatively estimated at an boys. Although it remains poorer, Bangladesh acting on their own. Yet, “multilateralism’s annual USD $80–85 billion in 2010.86 The has overtaken India in many aspects of human ability to achieve collective and cooperative global industry reached its peak harvest in development, including life expectancy, child action has eroded relative to the challenges it 1989, yielding 90 million metric tonnes of immunisation and child mortality.76 faces”.81 Next, we consider the elements that catch. Since then, harvests have stagnated have contributed to undermining much-needed or declined and, for some of the most highly Several countries in Latin America, Europe, action at both national and international level. demanded species, fisheries have reached the Africa, and Australasia have legalised same-sex point of collapse.87 For sustainability to be in the past decade, often overcoming achieved, some 65 percent of the boats now strong resistance from some sections of Tragedy of the commons active will need to be retired, leading to the society, including powerful religious institutions. potential loss of jobs of up to 22 million people In 2010, Argentina became the first country Individuals, communities and nations, acting currently employed in the fishing industry.88 It in Latin America to permit same-sex marriage, rationally, can generate collective failure. may be rational for an individual to fish, but the with President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s This is particularly true when we consider current scale of fishing, driven by increasing government narrowly winning a senate vote in natural resources and the environment. When individual and industrial competition as well as spite of the Roman Church’s opposition, actors seek to maximise their consumption rising income levels, is unsustainable. led by Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, now Pope (or production) of a scarce resource, thereby Francis.77 benefiting in the short-term, the resource is The rapid increase in global fishing has led to the threatened with ultimate collapse in the longer decline of marine biodiversity, with ecosystem On the environmental front, Germany has led term. The shrinking of the Aral Sea, described as sustainability and ocean resilience also the way in growing its renewable energy sector “one of the greatest man-made environmental compromised.89 The UN, the WTO, the Marine and promoting renewable energy since the disasters in history”, provides a stark example Stewardship Council and other international passage of its Renewable Energy Sources Act.78 of such a tragedy.82 By 2007 it had shrunk bodies are working to develop appropriate rules, Utilising a policy of feed-in tariffs, renewable to 10 percent of its original size: it was once standards and intervention measures. Yet the energy accounted for 23 percent of Germany’s the fourth largest inland body of water with global failure to anticipate the collective impact gross energy consumption at the end of a surface area of 66,000km2. Its relatively of large-scale commercial fishing operations 2012.79 Germany is now one of the world’s swift destruction has been caused by irrigation before substantial damage was incurred largest solar energy markets,80 and accounts for and agricultural demands of bordering Central provides a painful lesson. It is also a symptom 30 percent of installed European wind capacity Asian states and the countries of the former of broader inaction on the environmental (12 percent globally). The government’s current Soviet Union. Individual policy decisions of front. In 2010, the Global Biodiversity Outlook goal is to increase the share that renewable these countries led to large irrigation projects, confirmed the world “had failed to meet its energy sources contribute to Germany’s with little regard for long-term or downstream target to achieve a significant reduction in the electricity production to 80 percent by 2050. impacts.83 This collective failure has meant that rate of biodiversity loss” and that tipping points water levels have declined to the extent that destructive to human societies would only be what was once a sea is now just three lakes, avoided if “effective and coordinated action is two of which are too salty for fish. Thousands taken to reduce the multiple pressures being of jobs have been lost as “once thriving fishing imposed on biodiversity”.90 The seemingly fleets have disappeared and former shore towns rational choices of individuals and countries have collapsed”.84 Salt and toxic substances in the short term frequently have severely blown from dry seabeds are now reported to negative effects when aggregated over the be causing significant health problems.85 While long term, leading to collective failure. As it may have seemed rational for an individual consumer power and freedom rise rapidly country to feed its population with irrigation across the globe, the spillover effects of water from the sea, too many countries have our interconnected behaviours also rise. The followed this path, with disastrous effects. tragedy of the commons – a concept that was developed in relation to the commons shared Overfishing is another example of the “tragedy by villagers – is now relevant in the national and of the commons”, as public fish stocks are world context as we inhabit a global village. exploited due to a lack of coordination among commercial fishing operations and the absence of effective governance of the high seas. Widespread overfishing began in the mid-20th century, as governments seeking to create jobs and incomes for fishing communities

41 Lack of intergenerational vision is increasingly unsustainable. Few governments responsible for financial governance failed to and pension providers explicitly recognise predict and ultimately prevent the devastating The inability or reluctance of decision-makers this risk, and even fewer are prepared for it. Financial Crisis. As our connectivity to to look ahead to the long-term horizon can According to the IMF, if everyone in 2050 increasing vulnerability to future financial lead to gridlock in global negotiations. Former lived just three years longer, society would contagion, as well as to pandemics, climate Irish President described “need extra resources equivalent to one to two change, cyber and other cascading shocks, it is the much-anticipated Rio+20 Summit in percent of GDP per year”.97 vital that we learn lessons from this crisis so as 2012 as a gathering of leaders “without an to more effectively manage global systemic risk intergenerational vision” who “failed to rise to in the future.99 the challenge”.91 The Summit’s final statement Absence of global oversight was described as “an outcome that makes nobody happy”. Others, like Kumi Naidoo, Prior to and during the Financial Crisis, the Resistance of vested interests Executive Director of Greenpeace International, inadequacy of the institutional interventions were more scathing, calling it “a failure of in the most powerful advanced economies, Resistance from powerful financial institutions epic proportions… the longest suicide note in coupled with the dearth of adequate multilateral and a number of powerful countries, along history”.92 Rio+20 is not the only high profile financial instruments, hampered both the with a lack of understanding and awareness, forum to disappoint. Other critical environmental prevention and resolution of the crisis. This undermined international attempts to regulate negotiations, including those on climate change is despite the oversight of three major global financial transparency and accountability and biodiversity, have fallen far short of their financial institutions: the IMF, the Bank of standards in the years preceding the Financial ambitions, largely due to a failure of vision and International Settlements and the Financial Crisis. This is not new; vested interests have commitment to binding agreements amongst Stability Forum. Given that the multilateral fought attempts to limit tobacco consumption, global leaders and their advisors. financial system is arguably the most developed tighten gun control, and mitigate climate and best equipped within the global governance change.100 Major tobacco , for The 2009 UN Climate Change negotiations in system to manage such vulnerabilities, its failure example, have been accused of creating Copenhagen are worthy of particular reflection. provides a particularly troubling lesson about organisations to publish biased scientific reports After two years of multilateral discussions at global governance. And whereas there has been and funding politicians who support tobacco the expert level, world leaders descended on some progress with the reform of financial use as part of their campaigns against action.101 the Danish capital, and were widely expected to governance, in other areas, such as trade, Food conglomerates have similarly lobbied agree a global deal to combat climate change. taxation, migration and intellectual property, against food regulations.102 Expectations were high, yet, despite the world’s progress has been stymied. attention, “the conference produced perhaps Sir John Houghton, former co-Chair of the the most ambiguous outcome in diplomatic Part of the challenge for global institutions IPCC, has spoken out against the role played history, leaving governments and observers is keeping up with the rapid pace of changes by those with something to gain from denying alike wondering how to assess the results”.93 in technologies and the global economy. The anthropogenic climate change, stating “a lot of Negotiations arrived at a stalemate mainly due period between 1998 and 2007 saw explosive resistance comes from vested interests, coal to irreconcilable differences between developed growth in sophisticated financial instruments and oil interests in the United States which are and developing countries. In the final days, and innovations, along with a dramatic increase very strong and which employ thousands of a smaller alliance of 25 countries, led by the in the interconnection and complexity of the lobbyists in Washington to try and persuade United States and China, tried to piece together global financial system. There was a genuine members of that climate change is an agreement. The resulting Copenhagen failure by even the most sophisticated not happening”.103 This is not a phenomenon Accord was described as a weak political regulators to understand the complexities of limited to the United States; it has been argued declaration, intended to mask the international new instruments arising from technological that Australia’s initial reluctance to sign the community’s “political failure” to negotiate a changes and newly globalised flows. This, Protocol was largely due to successful legally binding global climate change treaty.94 combined with conceptual failures amongst lobbying by the Australian coal industry.104 Leaders were criticised for a lack of ambition economists and the undue influence of the Thus, while many parties may advocate financial and for “failing to seize the opportunity and rise lobbyists of private financial institutions, meant regulation, tobacco legislation, or climate action, to the challenge”, despite the gravity of the that overall financial stability was compromised. the strength of organisations who benefit from problem.95 Although there is evidence voluntary Banks prioritised “optimising and minimising the status quo often outweighs this desire for targets made at Copenhagen are being met, their individual risks instead of taking into reform. including China’s mitigation commitments to account the system effects of their actions”.98 2020,96 the skeletal path forward agreed in The collective impact of this deregulation was set back the agreement of a global a growing gulf between global oversight and Lack of awareness pact until at least 2015. market innovation. In many cases, national regulations and standards were lowered as Lack of awareness of critical issues by A lack of intergenerational vision is not a competing state regulators played off each governments, corporations, and the wider problem confined to the environmental other. In the absence of a global rule-making public can lead to difficulty and, in some cases, sphere. In an age of longer life expectancy, a authority or collective understanding of the disaster. In the decade preceding the Financial continued international propensity towards deep structural changes and vulnerabilities Crisis, Standard & Poor’s gave a triple-A early retirement ages means pension financing across the financial system, the key institutions rating to many Collateralised Debt Obligations

42 (CDOs), advising investors that there was a of the need to balance short-term and longer- mere 0.12 percent probability that they would term interests and individual and communal fail to pay out over the next five years; in fact, rationality to ensure sustainable collective 28 percent of triple-A rated CDOs defaulted, outcomes.108 Many of today’s challenges constituting what Nate Silver calls “about as transcend generational and geographical complete a failure as it is possible to make in boundaries. Drawing inspiration and caution a prediction”.105 Economists, , and from our examples, we now seek to explore the members of the public expressed concerns common factors that underpin or undermine over the housing bubble as early as 2000.106 our ability to take action. Awareness of the risk existed, but was either unwittingly, or perhaps wilfully, overlooked within the financial sector.

Albert Einstein is quoted as saying “Information is not knowledge”. The dawn of the digital age and the proliferation of global media outlets mean that current generations, or at least those with unrestricted internet access, cannot complain about a lack of information. A surfeit of information does not, however, always mean sufficient awareness of key global issues and challenges; in fact, too much information can cloud public judgement as to which issues are particularly important and which are less so, with people tending to become passive in the face of too much information.107 Awareness is particularly challenging when many of the issues confronting us are anticipatory; it is often difficult for policymakers and citizens alike to conceptualise challenges like pandemic preparedness or cyber warfare, and their local impacts. For some individuals, communities, and countries, however, the issue is not lack of awareness as much as lack of voice; as we explore later in Part B, too many conversations are closed to too many people.

Lessons from success and failure

The examples and lessons identified above are not comprehensive. Positive examples, such as successes with nuclear non-proliferation, the European Union Single Market, HIV and human rights, remind us that seemingly intractable problems can be addressed. We have seen that certain contributing elements have historically facilitated progress. These include situations of crisis; shared interests; leadership; inclusiveness; institutions and networks; public-private partnerships; goal setting and prizes.

Negative examples, such as the Aral Sea and overfishing, the failure to come to agreement at Copenhagen, and the Financial Crisis serve to remind us of the old cliché that those who ignore history are destined to repeat it. Looking forward, antibiotic resistance, fossil fuel usage and fishing practices are just three examples

43 Shaping Factors: What Makes Change So Hard? 1. Institutions

In this section, we seek to identify five shaping 20th century structures and institutions complex and interconnected challenges. A factors that must be taken into account in are poorly equipped for 21st century number of our Commissioners have already efforts to generate positive change and close challenges, and suffer from legitimacy, contributed to numerous reports, expert panels, the gap between knowledge and action. authority and effectiveness deficits. and review groups which have been charged As our global institutions have struggled to with assessing how different global governance reform at the pace required, governments institutions might be made fit for purpose. Few and business leaders have lowered their eyes Built for yesterday have had substantial impact, and none at the from the horizon, preoccupied by 24/7 media scale or pace required. Whilst the reform of cycles, electoral pressures and short-term International organisations and structures global governance is of fundamental importance, performance measures. As a society, we face have had difficulty keeping pace with today’s our report is not focused solely on reform of “a lack of trust in institutions and a lack of hyper-connected, globalised world.110 Iconic the international system. In Part A we included confidence in existing ideas and models”.109 20th century global institutions, born in the a number of suggestions on how specific global In part, this is because issues have grown aftermath of two brutal world wars, a global institutions might be empowered to confront in terms of their interconnection, spill-over pandemic, and a worldwide depression, were pressing issues including reform of the WHO across sectors and boundaries and complexity, created in the hope that humanity would to enhance pandemic preparedness; reform of reducing our capacity to act decisively. Our never again face such unimaginable horror the G20 to realise its potential; and increasing ability to understand and embrace system and and destruction. As reflected above, these the effectiveness of the UN Security Council. In cultural differences requires greater effort. institutions have enjoyed some successes, Part C, we suggest some additional institutional However, the potential to modernise our not least in their role in preventing a global reforms, designed to help ensure international political conversations and models to embed or nuclear war, rebuilding our international institutions are fit for purpose. global necessities and the long term into our system post-1945, largely eradicating smallpox decision-making structures provides enormous and polio, tackling tobacco reforms, reducing opportunities. AIDS, and, until 2008, averting another Global meetings global depression. Yet the 21st century, as illustrated in Part A, presents far more complex, From Copenhagen to Kyoto, and Doha to Durban, interconnected and interdependent challenges, certain cities have become synonymous with which today’s global governance institutions particular stalled points in modern diplomatic seem unfit to tackle within their current history. The elements are familiar, whether it is configurations and cultures. trade, climate or arms control talks. Thousands of participants representing states, NGOs, Ultimately, these 20th century structures and businesses, foundations, and media outlets institutions suffer from legitimacy, authority and descend on the chosen city for extended effectiveness deficits. Countries with diminishing meetings, side room talks, lobbying and wrangling. geopolitical strength in the 21st century still Too often the results are disappointing. hold disproportionate power, with governance structures that do not reflect the new world The entrenched positions of participants has order. The pace of reform has been painfully slow, resulted in a narrowing of the possibilities for and in many cases has been actively resisted or consensus, while the increase in the number stymied by vested national, corporate or other of participants has resulted in heightened powerful interests. Traditional powers have been fragmentation. While the number of actors reluctant to cede their influence in international and voices has multiplied on the international institutions, whilst also demonstrating a stage, so too it has in domestic politics, so frustrating ambivalence or even reluctance to that domestic ratification of international strengthening them. This reluctance to cede agreements has also become more fraught. power is in part due to perceptions that the Meanwhile, the increasing number of linkages biggest beneficiaries of a shift in power are and complexity makes attribution of cause and likely to be emerging economies such as China effect ever more difficult, compounding the or India.111 Although some emerging powers are difficulty in agreeing a course of action. willing to assume leadership responsibility that is proportionate to their capacity, many lack Many representatives attend major summits experience in global governance arenas and need not only with a determination to hold their a new participatory and flexible framework in position, but wielding requirements that make order to play an active role. It is the Commission’s any meaningful action virtually impossible.112 view that the rebalancing of the global economy Such entrenchment can be compounded by should provide an opportunity to strengthen deliberate pre-meeting leaks to the media, multilateral institutions. Both traditional and which means that states are reluctant to waver emerging powers need to take ownership of the from pre-publicised negotiating positions. The multilateral system and work together to identify increased complexity of the issues means that new approaches to address our increasingly contemporary diplomacy also involves numerous

44 Shaping Factors: What Makes Change So Hard? 2. Time 1. Institutions

Number of governments Number of civil society Electoral cycles, media pressures, company present representatives reporting timetables and just-in-time systems encourage short-sightedness 200 10000 9800

190 8000 Embedded short-termism

188 , speaking at the 2013 World 180 6000 Economic Forum, wearily remarked, “Leadership is the opposite of short-termism”.117 The outgoing Italian Prime Minister was speaking 170 172 4000 from experience, his country having lived through an extraordinary 62 governments since 1946.118 Italy provides an extreme example 160 2000 2400 of short-termism, but increasingly short-term considerations drive our political, business and 150 0 other decision-making bodies. Rio Rio + 20 Rio Rio + 20 In his reflections at the end of his tenure as Figure 21: A comparison of participation at the Rio Earth Summit, 1992 and Director-General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, the Rio + 20 Summit, 2012 our Chair, asserted that “short-term politics... Source: Based on data from the United Nations, “UN Conference on Environment and Development 1992” http://www.un.org/ are becoming increasingly incompatible with geninfo//enviro.html and the United Nations, “United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development Concludes with World the setting of the medium and longer term Leaders Renewing Commitments to Save Planet” http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/envdev1310.doc.htm. goals essential for designing consistent trade policies”.119 Such frustrations are not unique to trade. This Commission believes that it is government departments. Whilst traditionally the on Denmark’s capital for the UN Climate Change vital to raise our horizons to address a series of domain of foreign affairs departments, today’s Conference. Figure 21 shows the extraordinary critical global challenges, both immediate and diplomatic delegations must follow positions growth in representatives at the Rio Earth longer term. Government leaders necessarily forged by compromise between different Summits of 1992 and 2012. The presence of so need to respond swiftly to dramatic events domestic ministries,113 which can reduce scope many participants raises questions as to whether on their doorstep. However, they also need to for critical negotiation and often results in these international summits, which represent so be concerned with slow, cumulative trends. watered-down agreements. Where prolonged many diverging interests, have become unwieldy The Arab Spring, the Icelandic volcano and the debate does take place, it often fixates on lesser and unworkable. This is particularly challenging Fukushima nuclear disaster are all examples of details; indeed, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki given that consensus remains the most unexpected events that demanded immediate expressed uncharacteristic frustration frequently used decision-making mechanism in policy attention. But this is no excuse to be during the Rio+20 conference preparations, these forums. unprepared for those challenges requiring a pleading "this is not the time to argue against any longer-term perspective. small, small items”, asking delegates to focus on the bigger picture instead.114 The Commission is concerned that a culture of short-termism pervades political life. Today’s leaders seem increasingly distracted by 24/7 New players, more representatives media pressures, election timetables and the “urgency of now”. As our Commissioner Whilst greater inclusivity, transparency Arianna Huffington has highlighted, the and democratisation is in many ways to be immediacy enabled via new technological welcomed, the escalating number of parties tools like smart phones, , YouTube, involved raises questions about the efficacy of and, more broadly, the Internet is world summits in addressing global challenges. dramatically changing how media is produced, This is partly attributable to the increased consumed and reported. The public can now number of member states in the UN; with only circulate images, anecdotes and video clips 51 members upon its founding in 1945, there to a significant international audience at the are 193 member states today.115 Growth is press of a button. Such immediacy calls for also due to the pronounced rise in civil society immediate responses, as governments are involvement in international diplomacy. In 1948 increasingly put on the spot by journalists, only 40 NGOs held consultative status with and are expected to provide commentary ECOSOC; in 2010, the figure was 3,345.116 In with limited time for appropriate reflection, December 2009, around 15,000 delegates, 100 clarification and analysis of the facts. world leaders, and 5,000 journalists descended

45 Political and social realities polling has lead to many politicians becoming “too future of computer trading in financial markets responsive to public opinion in the short run”.127 noted the benefits of such technological Within , there are clear tensions While becoming increasingly alert to sudden advances, but underlined the need for better between the capacity of governments to deliver changes in opinion and surface discontent, surveillance, timestamps and evidence-based long-term solutions in the collective interest leaders have placed much less reliance on such regulatory action to minimise market instability and more short-term political demands. As techniques to understand opinion and frame and periodic illiquidity.131 The influence of many European leaders can attest, politicians are issues for the longer run. multinational corporations over both national increasingly punished in times of crisis, making it and global policymaking at times can also be harder to take difficult long-term decisions that a source of concern, as certain global firms produce immediate pain. Since mid-2010, the Corporate have proved themselves adept at transcending leaders of more than 75 percent of the European national tax, employment or regulatory Union’s 28 states have fallen or been voted out Responsibility to think and act in the longer- jurisdictions. In a globalised commercial world, of office, including the leaders of France, Spain term interest is not confined to the political ensuring compliance requires coordination and Italy.120 Increasingly difficult decisions, sphere. The global business community also has between countries that often are competing for particularly on controversial reforms such as on a vital role to play. Yet with notable exceptions, investment. carbon taxes, nuclear power or abortion, are businesses are failing to show leadership and often delayed or are beset with uncertainty. grasp responsibility on the scale required. Some There are positive signs. Many companies have businesses, often through their corporate embraced corporate social responsibility and Whilst formal political structures vary, all social responsibility activities or philanthropy, other long-term impact targets. The Chartered societies face increasing demands for political have sparked action, but these are only Institute of Management Accountants has accountability, higher living standards, economic rarely mainstreamed within the firm. This is noted the “retreat from shareholder value as the opportunities and a more sustainable and particularly acute in the financial sector where dominant business philosophy and increasing healthy environment. Both representative Andy Haldane, Executive Director of the Bank interest in alternative corporate models, such as democracies and countries with more of , argues that there is evidence that those common in India and China”.132 The World hierarchical governance face challenges with “myopia is mounting”.128 Bank has instituted procedures, through a new long-term planning, as, for example, studies Compliance Advisor/, to provide of regime type and ecological management Times have dramatically changed since the an “independent, ‘bottom-up’ accountability highlight.121 Sensitivity to immediate public Rothschilds reportedly used carrier pigeons to and recourse mechanism” that, among other concerns and perceptions are pressing trade on the outcome of the Battle of Waterloo things, works to ensure compliance with social everywhere, and not least in China. One of back in 1815.129 Today the average speed of order and environmental safeguards.133 Another key Xi Jinping’s first moves as Chinese President execution on the has initiative is the UN Global Compact, which works was to impose a ban on lavish banquets, red fallen from 20 seconds a decade ago to under with companies to enhance commitment to carpet receptions, wasteful travel122 and, one second. From 1975 to 2010, the average principles in the areas of human rights, labour, more recently, the construction of any new period for stock holdings on the New York Stock the environment and anti-corruption. The World government offices for the next five years.123 Exchange dropped from six years to nearly Business Council for Sustainable Development In a speech to an official party gathering in six months. As highlighted in Part A, Dominic complements this work by helping to galvanise January 2013, President Xi warned colleagues Barton, the Managing Director of McKinsey & the global business community towards that “if we don't redress unhealthy tendencies Company, has been particularly vocal on the issue sustainable ends. Arising out of the Financial and allow them to develop (in how we work), it of increasing short-termism within corporations. Crisis and challenges similar to those identified will be like putting up a wall between our party He, along with Mark Wiseman, President and by this Commission, business led initiatives which and the people, and we will lose our roots, our CEO of Pension Plan Investment Board, focus on the longer term sustainability of the lifeblood and our strength".124 argue that firms are under increasing pressure firms and the planet are gaining traction. The to be short-term at the cost of longer-term B-Team, founded by Sir and Meanwhile in democracies, more frequent opinion strategic decision-making. Performance metrics Jochen Zeitz, is among the most recent of this polls, longer election campaigns, the pressures of of CEOs based on share prices arguably encourage new wave of private sector responses to the increasingly vocal and well funded lobbies and the a focus on short-term stock prices, rather than short-termism of firms, calling on businesses to preference for sound bites over detailed analysis long-term value creation. Meanwhile short- prioritise people and the planet alongside profit. can mean the capacity to think and articulate a term investors who often hold shares for a few vision beyond the electoral term are increasingly days (or potentially just a few seconds) have the limited. The immediate political pressures are same voting power as those who hold shares for Governmental approaches for the compounded in countries like the United States a longer period, with this perversely rewarding longer term by the lengthening of political campaigns. In those who want to make a quick return and are the 2008 presidential election, ’s not necessarily committed to a company’s long- Just as there are some inspiring initiatives campaign ran for 21 months125, compared to term well-being.130 emerging within the business sector, it is the already significant 10 month campaign of also useful to reflect on existing models and John F. Kennedy in 1960.126 Similarly, much has Quarterly earnings targets, “hyper-speed” methods used by some governments to changed since Gallup published the first trading systems, and impatient stakeholders embed the longer-term into decision-making random sample public opinion poll in 1935. The reinforce short-termism in business. A 2012 structures. Some are constitutional. Albania, proliferation and increased sophistication of United Kingdom Government study into the Argentina, , Bhutan, Bolivia, Burundi,

46 Cuba, Ecuador, France, Germany, Kenya, enhance intergenerational solidarity and address investment and sets the stage for China’s long- , South Africa and all include the rights and needs of future generations.141 term development. Other NPCs have been substantive provisions for future generations The FCF appears particularly promising; it described as an “exercise in wish fulfilment within their constitutions. Increasing numbers is one of the Finnish Parliament’s sixteen as much as anything”,145 but many remain of international instruments (at least 29 at standing committees, with members drawn vital trendsetters in long-term planning. last count) directly refer to future generations. from different political parties and the power Intergenerational reporting146, sovereign wealth Considerable judicial attention is now devoted to shape its own agenda. Its specific task is to funds147 and long‑term budgeting and fiscal towards “generations unborn” and what create policy to advance future interests and planning148 are other significant reflections of a intergenerational justice might entail.134 Some provide a longer-term assessment of policy whole of government approach to thinking and methodological commitments that negatively choices such as in healthcare.142 governing long-term.149 Research embedded impact future generations are under greater within the broader structures of government scrutiny (discounting is one particular example, ’s Parliamentary Commissioner and is also valuable. Foresight, established by the especially following the Stern Climate Change ’s National Commission no longer function. United Kingdom government in 1994, supplies Review135). Other political and legislative The same is true of several longer-term a useful template. It takes a cross-departmental mechanisms that could be adopted include strategy units, designed to be far-sighted in approach to “thinking systemically about the lengthening electoral cycles and the tenure consideration of trends and political direction, future” and conducts detailed studies of long- of representatives, and avoiding frequent but dispensed with as political priorities have term issues, drawing on expert networks of Ministerial reshuffles which undermine capacity changed. The United Kingdom’s Strategy Unit academics and practitioners.150 to think longer-term.136 A strong, independent and the French Commissariat de Plan are two civil service is also critical in this respect. Other additional examples of forward-looking groups The different models outlined above have a initiatives that require governments to outline at the heart of government which have been mixed record in terms of providing an effective the impact of policies on future generations closed down. The strength of these models means to advance the interests of future (such as Intergenerational Reports and was their capacity to provide strategic, long- generations. The more successful models Posterity Impact Statements137) and involve term and confidential advice to leaders, whilst empower through a combination of centralised more young people in the decision-making being separate from the immediate pressures and more decentralised approaches, whilst process (including youth parliaments and youth of day-to-day politics.143 There are reasons for also providing appropriate incentives and representatives) warrant further attention.138 optimism, however, within the French system. institutional structures to ensure accountability. Cultural norms and institutional practices also A replacement of Commissariat de Plan, called Appropriate safeguards that allow these need to resist an exclusively short-term ethos, the Commissariat général à la stratégie et à la arms of government to thrive without being including in auditing and budgeting.139 prospective was created in April 2013 at the drawn into day-to-day politics improve the request of President Hollande. In announcing his chance of success. Openness and transparency There is considerable variance in best practice intention to develop a 10 year vision strategy help mobilise long-term support. The World amongst the different approaches, which may for France, Hollande explained that “certainly, Future Council has proposed that domestic be grouped into three types of arrangements. not everything can be anticipated; conflicts, action on future generations would ideally The first, and most common, emphasise natural disaster, crises. Still, it is France’s combine the best elements of the Israel, environmental sustainability. Commissions or responsibility to help to prevent these.”144 New Zealand and Hungary models, thus commissioners responsible primarily for the ensuring integrative coverage of relevant environment or sustainable development exist The third type of national initiative represents issues (Israel), independence (New Zealand), in Brazil, Canada, Chile, Germany, , a whole of government approach to long-term and a shadow of enforcement (Hungary). New Zealand and, until recently, the United planning, often driven by strategic priorities in Our review suggests successful mechanisms Kingdom. Several of these bodies, such as those economic development. Of these approaches, are integrated and cross-cutting; possess a in Brazil and Chile, are permanent organs of the National Planning Commissions (NPCs) are the degree of independence from government national parliament, and their authority extends most widely applied. China’s and India’s are the and other bodies with short-term goals; have to proposing or reviewing parliamentary bills best known, with South Africa’s – headed by enforcement power; provide clear incentives and promoting community debates. Commissioner Trevor Manuel – among the for long-term thinking; ensure horizontal and most recent. NPCs vary in terms of authority, vertical consistency; prioritise inclusiveness Bespoke institutions are the second type coordination, and representation. Some are and transparency; delegate where possible to of intervention created to advance the skewed towards planning without comparable countries, cities and local governments; seek interests of future generations. These have attention to implementation; others have external advice, including by working with the a varied track record. Leading examples are been unable to insulate themselves from private sector; and are aligned with global Finland’s Committee for the Future (“FCF”), short-term demands. The rate and success of reform efforts. Hungary’s Parliamentary Commissioner for implementation varies per country. In China, Future Generations and Israel’s National our Commissioner Minister Liu He is also Vice Commission for Future Generations. Hungary’s Chairman of the National Development and model inspired the proposal from the World Reform Commission, an institution many regard Future Council at the Rio+20 Summit for as one of the most significant and effective an International Ombudsperson for Future modern planning organisations. Within the Generations.140 In the wake of this summit, Chinese system, the planning process is central the UN is currently considering proposals to to all key elements of decision-making and

47 3. Political Engagement and Public Trust

Self-identified, 2004, Limited opportunities for constructive Some analysis suggests less partisanship can percentage of population engagement and declining trust in politics result in more political volatility, with recent Poland and institutions undermine citizens’ elections in Britain, Pakistan, India and New 153 involvement in policy. Yet new online Zealand all resulting in hung parliaments. Russia tools and methods of participation are Several countries that were led by single party potentially widening opportunities for majority governments for generations, have Chile discussion and debate. recently seen the installation of ruling coalitions, notably in the United Kingdom and Greece, where South Korea single-party leadership has dominated the past Germany Partied out six decades of politics. Like political parties, trade unions have experienced a considerable decline in Japan The end of the era of tight affiliation to political membership in many countries.154 For example, parties appears to be approaching. Many in 2012 the union membership rate amongst Brazil democracies are grappling with declining political workers in the United States was 11.3 percent, party membership, reduced opportunities for compared to 20.1 percent in 1983.155 political engagement, and increasing political Britain indifference. Political party membership Engaging young people in politics is vital to across 13 European democracies declined by solving the great challenges of this and future 40 percent between the late 1970s and the generations. Yet the evidence suggests that late 1990s.151 In 1951, the United Kingdom young people are less and less interested in both Canada Conservative Party’s membership stood at party politics and politics more generally. In the 2.9 million; by 2011, it had fallen to less than United Kingdom, the proportion of young people 180,000, despite the United Kingdom population who supported or felt close to a particular party, growing by more than ten million over the or who wanted a particular party to win a general same period.152 The members that do remain election, fell from 68 to 39 percent between 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 are less active and typically older members of 1994 and 2003156; and while 88.6 percent of society. Whilst it is true that small parties and 18–25 year olds in the United Kingdom voted in independents are growing – albeit from a limited the general election of 1964, in 2005 the figure Figure 23: Political party base – and new political parties and informal was only 44.3 percent.157 Japanese people in membership across the world, 2004 political street movements have emerged in the their 20s cast ballots less than half as often as Source: The Economist, “The Party’s (Largely) Over”, 21 wake of the Arab Spring and recession in Europe, those citizens in their 60s.158 Elsewhere, voter October 2010. the long-term viability of these groupings is turnout rates for those in their 20s – 63 percent questionable. in Latin America, 59 percent in East Asia, and 58 percent in Africa – are also lower than for those in their 50s and above (with rates of 88 percent 1,200 in Latin America and 89 percent in East Asia and Africa for those between 51 and 60 years old).159 1,000 Young people are increasingly disillusioned Conservatives with “politics as usual”. The perception gap between those in power and the wider citizenry 800 appears to be widening, with polls suggesting a growing mistrust of leadership. Yet rather than simply being looked upon as the passive 600 20,000 subjects of policy formation, young people UKIP “should be recognised as social actors with Labour 15,000 skills and capacities to bring about constructive 400 solutions to societal issues that directly affect 160 Membership in thousands Membership SNP them”. This makes sense, not only because 10,000 GREEN young people know the most about the 200 BNP realities of their own lives, but because such Liberal Democrats 5,000 engagement also encourages young people to become active members of society and 0 0 may foster a greater sense of belonging.161 1975 1983 1990 1997 2002 2005 2010 2002 2005 2010 In today’s climate where tough decisions are required on issues of inter-generational equity, Figure 22: Changes in UK political party membership 1975–2010 particularly in relation to employment, greater Source: Feargal McGuinness and Rob Clements, Membership of UK Political Parties (London: Commons Library, 2012), pp. 12-13. emphasis on public discussion and engagement

48 10 diminish. This disillusionment and scepticism coincides with the increasing difficulty of 5 governments to engage in conversations about values based principles which transcend more populist, day-to-day political agendas and 0 Austria Bulgaria Canada Chile Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Japan South Korea Mexico Netherlands Poland Russia Slovakia Spain Sweden UK US strive to articulate a broader vision for society.

-5 Another consequence of reduced trust in the state is a reluctance to heed governmental -10 advice. A good example is anxiety surrounding the consequences and motivations of large- scale vaccination programmes. In the United -15 Kingdom, concern over a (discredited) link between autism and the measles, mumps, Change in percentage of party members Change in percentage -20 and rubella (MMR) vaccine meant low vaccination uptake in the late 1990s and early Figure 24: Changes in party membership in 25 countries 2000s, and a subsequent rise in the number 1989–1999 to 1999–2004 of reported measles cases.173 In northern Source: Paul Whiteley, “Is the Party Over? The Decline of Party Activism and Membership across the Democratic World”, Party Nigeria, political and religious leaders halted a Politics, 17 (2011), p. 6. polio immunisation campaign in 2003, citing spurious claims that the vaccines could be contaminated by anti-fertility agents, HIV and with younger generations is much needed. or “most of the time” fell from 40 percent in cancerous elements.174 In Pakistan, the United In this regard, initiatives such as One Young 1986 to just 16 percent in 2009, whilst the States Central Intelligence Agency admitted World, established in 2009, play a critical role proportion saying they “almost never” trusted a ruse whereby it sponsored a hepatitis in empowering youth. The organisation brings government rose from 12 percent to 40 vaccination campaign in order to secure Osama together young people from around the world percent.167 in government institutions, Bin Laden’s DNA profile175; it has been reported in an annual summit to debate and formulate too, has declined. Trust in Congress amongst that local aid workers and public health officials solutions to pressing global challenges. Since its United States citizens dropped from 42 percent consider that this undermined Pakistan’s establishment, One Young World in 1973 to just 10 percent in 2013.168 Similarly, efforts to eradicate polio.176 have set up over 130 projects and initiatives the reports that the view in over 100 countries, from campaigns to raise that “my voice counts in (my country)” received awareness of disability rights in to raising overwhelming support in Denmark (96 percent) Modernising political conversations funds for the UN World Food Programme.162 and Sweden (89 percent) but fewer than one in five citizens in Greece (15 percent), Whilst political party membership may have (16 percent) and Italy (18 percent) agreed.169 slumped, there is some encouragement to Lack of trust and engagement be found in the way single issue campaigns Trust is viewed as an essential component of are thriving in today’s political landscape. This A Democratic Party poster deployed in the effective policymaking because trust bestows suggests some appetite remains for political 1960 United States presidential campaign legitimacy, and thus facilitates greater public activism which might be harnessed through memorably featured an image of Republican willingness to abide by decisions and proposals new and alternative means. From grassroots candidate Richard Nixon alongside the words: made by politicians.170 This, in turn, “creates campaigns against new airport runways and “Would you buy a used car from this man?”163 a fiduciary relationship between government mass protests in India about the treatment Rightly or wrongly, politicians have long and the governed, allowing the former to make of women, to bottom-up campaigns to keep been “synonymous with sleaze, corruption decisions that provide long-term benefits to a female face on British currency, single and duplicity, greed, self-interest and self- citizens even if those decisions are unpopular issue groups can prove highly effective in importance, interference, inefficiency and in the short run”.171 The absence of public assembling coalitions of active organisations intransigence”, yet public distrust of our leaders trust therefore implies decreased likelihood to block particular policies, or draw attention and our institutions seems to have grown visibly of governments taking difficult but necessary to government inaction or damaging company in recent years.164 Some scholars argue that as a decisions. A further potential consequence behaviour. Campaigning on single issues society, our healthy scepticism is fast becoming of public distrust in government is decreased emphasises individual choice over , and a rather more corrosive cynicism.165 According engagement in political participation; Robert enables people to build a portfolio of political to a Guardian/ICM poll conducted across Putnam says it is “not coincidental” that a engagement without being tied to any one France, Britain, Germany, Poland and Spain in decline in Americans’ engagement in politics, via party. The increasing availability of the necessary 2011, only 9 percent of Europeans thought public meetings, rallies, and political parties, has technology, low costs of data and smart phones their politicians – either in opposition or in emerged at the same time as rising distrust of have all helped to mobilise people and make power – acted with honesty and integrity.166 government.172 As citizens become increasingly coordination easier. With most platforms now In Britain, the proportion of the public who said disillusioned with politics, the fear is that free and open sourced, more ad hoc groups are they trust governments “just about always” their interest in key issues and challenges will expected to start up across the world.177

49 50 Helping to facilitate this shift are organisations America there were far steeper declines of 25 public awareness and mobilising the public such as the online global campaigning platform, percent and 13 percent respectively.180 In the on critical issues. The arts are instrumental Avaaz, as well as more local initiatives like United Kingdom, circulation fell in all national for challenging commonly held perspectives, MoveOn and Change.org in the United States daily newspapers in 2011, with over 30 whilst also raising awareness about social and GetUp! in Australia. These groups provide regional weekly papers forced to shut down.181 issues, breaking down barriers to cross-cultural platforms for multiple campaigns and the In South Africa, 16 out of 19 daily newspapers understanding, and inspiring creative solutions.187 know-how required to coordinate campaigns recorded declines in their circulation between and campaigners online. Avaaz was established 2006 and 2011, with newspapers suffering with the lofty goal of closing the gap between circulation drops ranging from 8 percent to The potential of new social media “the world we have and the world most people 31 percent.182 Newspapers are not in terminal everywhere want”. After only six years, it decline across the globe; in Asia, circulation Beyond the impact on news reporting, there is purports to have 20 million followers who increased by 1.2 percent in 2012.183 Yet as much broader debate about what new online receive weekly emails asking them to support more providers have turned to online content, social media networks mean for power, the campaigns ranging from protecting tigers and access is now increasingly restricted, either to state, and the citizen. Cyber-optimists like saving Russian girl band Pussy Riot to stopping subscribers only or via complicated paywalls. Clay Shirky claim that a “denser, more complex Rupert Murdoch’s quest to gain full control of In 2012, nearly one in three United States and more participatory” communications BSkyB.178 “Support” can range from signing national daily papers began charging for landscape provides the networked population online petitions to calling for submissions, to, online content or announced plans to do so.184 with “greater access to information, more more controversially, fundraising for on the Meanwhile, newsroom staff and reporting opportunities to engage in public speech, and ground activism. Similarly, GetUp! describes resources are shrinking, as newspapers grapple an enhanced ability to undertake collective itself as “a ground-up movement of real people with declining readership, increasingly tighter action”.188 Cyber-pessimists like Malcolm who are putting participation back into our advertising revenue, and competition from Gladwell argue that social media can never democracy”. Established in 2005, it has over online sources.185 act as a catalyst to lasting change in the way half a million members in Australia and has that direct action has in the past. He contends campaigned on issues such as civil liberties, Although it is a positive development that that its “weak ties” mean that while levels of freedom of the press, mental health reform and more information is available to citizens online participation might rise, this is only because of corporate responsibility.179 via social media tools and blogs, the lack of a decrease in the motivation that participation reportage and often sub-optimal use of reliable requires.189 Evgeny Morozov argues that binary Given their declining memberships, political sources, objectivity, and editorial control are a classifications and debates of cyber pessimism parties are envious of the capacity of issue cause for concern. The role of the news media is and optimism are deeply unhelpful, smothering driven groups to foster public support, and are not simply the dissemination of information, but meaningful critique of the Internet beyond trying to enlist them on particular issues for the filtering and interpreting of that information. populist analysis and hype.190 political gain. Meanwhile, there is increasing Industry experts question the value of some competition for attention as the number online alternatives which “indiscriminately mix As these debates rage on, the reality is that of single issue campaigns rises and groups press releases and genuine reporting without any social media is now a permanent fixture of use celebrities and the media to champion standards of significance or trustworthiness”, our political discourse. While there are many their cause. These changes have important and worry about the increasing gap “between limitations, a range of new or emerging social implications for how people are engaging the small minority who take an intense interest media examples provide some useful inspiration with politics. Single issue campaigns provide in public life and the considerably larger of the potential of social media to engage, a more fluid, often softer, engagement where number who drop out of the public sphere all empower, alert and amplify often unheard people move from one cause to another or together”.186 With the decreasing prominence voices. Examples include Ushahidi.com, a lend their support to a campaign by signing a of newspapers, the fear is that only those collaboration of Kenyan citizen journalists who petition, instead of getting actively involved and who are particularly motivated will still seek created this online platform to map incidents committed over a longer period. out news; many other citizens may leave the of violence as well as peace efforts that sphere of political engagement, increasing the followed the Kenyan election of 2008.191 With gap between knowledge of key challenges and over 45,000 users in Kenya, the site collated Old and new media societal action to overcome them. Another vital information which was then used by the concern is that people may increasingly seek out media and other groups to uncover and stop Newspapers, and journalism more broadly, the news that fits in with their existing opinions violence. Ushahidi, which means “testimony” in have typically served as an important check on and interests without gaining exposure to a Swahili, has provided the inspiration for similar governments and other powerful interests in deeper array of ideas and information, leading to platforms elsewhere. Today, this non-profit tech business and the broader community. Yet with a growing inability to see alternative perspectives platform has been adapted for use in monitoring the decline in newspaper readership, increasing and a climate of decreased consensus and elections or disaster situations in the Congo, closed “paywalls” online, and reduced numbers increased gridlock. Haiti and Chile.192 In Zambia, for example, of trained, independent journalists, many fear BantuWatch is a crowdsourcing platform that a key pillar of political accountability is In an environment of declining newspaper which allowed citizens to monitor and report at risk. Whilst newspaper circulation only readership, we are also reminded of the concerns around the 2011 elections regarding reduced by 2.2 percent globally between 2008 importance of artists, film-makers, authors, the electoral process, such as intimidation, vote and 2012, across Western Europe and North musicians and other cultural leaders in building buying, voting misinformation and violence.193

51 4. Growing Complexity

In 2008, Barack Obama led the first political in 2009 was captured on video by bystanders Issues are becoming more complex and the campaign in history to effectively harness the and gained global exposure on the Internet, evidence base can be uncertain, whilst an power of social media. Promoting the man becoming “probably the most widely witnessed emphasis on consensus undermines our dubbed the first “Facebook President”, Team death in human history”.196 ability to act. Obama used up to fifteen different social networking tools in a grassroots campaign Online platforms are also proving increasingly designed to mobilise volunteers, target new powerful in response to global emergencies, Scale, speed and spread voters quickly and efficiently, and build a providing rapidly updated information for the broader base of financial contributors. By the benefit of the public and first-responders alike. If aliens had been watching our planet for its end of the campaign, Obama had attracted The use of Twitter increased by 500 percent entire 4.5 billion years, they would have seen over 2.5 million Facebook supporters, 115,000 following the 2011 Japan earthquake and remarkably little change in the Earth’s appearance Twitter followers, and more than 50 million tsunami, as individuals sought to reach out for the vast majority of that time. Yet, as our views on his YouTube channel.194 Governments, to loved ones.197 Pioneered during Hurricane Commissioner Martin Rees has reflected, in just more broadly, are increasingly realising the Katrina in 2005, Google’s “Crisis Response a tiny sliver of its history – the last few thousand significance of social media as a potent Centre” has been instrumental in disseminating years – aliens would have started to witness an communications tool; when Egypt’s president critical information during disasters including accelerated pace of change as human populations Mohamed Morsi was toppled in July 2013 his earthquakes in and New Zealand, rose and agriculture began. Fast forward to acknowledgment and condemnation of the floods in and hurricanes in the United just the last 50 years – little more than one “military coup” was delivered via Facebook and States.198 hundredth of a millionth of the Earth’s age – Twitter. In countries like Egypt, Yemen, and and the changes have been far more dramatic

Tunisia, social media has been widely credited The causes and issues being addressed might and abrupt. Levels of CO2 rising anomalously for its role in the downfall of dictatorships not be new, but social media networks can in the atmosphere; radio waves emitting from during the Arab Spring. One must be careful, be game changing tools of communication. televisions, cell phone and radar transmissions; however, not to overstate the power of The new networks and participants have, at and almost every aspect of the earth’s system social media: it was less significant in the the very least, more potential power than – from the surface temperature, to sea and

campaign against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya ever before, constituting “the most active, CO2 levels, to arctic ice depletion – changing and has had little traction during ’s civil outspoken and globalised civil society the world dramatically as populations continued to grow, war. Furthermore, an asymmetry has begun has ever known”.199 Whether this translates into energy demand skyrocketed and pressures on to emerge between the ease of identifying more effective government and engagement our natural eco-systems rose exponentially. problems and the difficulty of solving them. of citizens in meeting the challenges outlined in Citizens are now able to raise issues and this report remains to be seen. Rees ponders what our hypothetical aliens mobilise in protest more quickly and easily might see 20, 50 or 100 years from now. than ever before, yet the complexity and Just as the pace of change has accelerated plethora of issues has weakened the capacity of significantly in the last 50 years, the scale, governments to solve problems. With the speed speed and spread of change going forward of protest accelerating ahead of the speed is likely to be even more extraordinary. We of problem solving, the demands on leaders know that humans are the primary cause have shifted. New capabilities of leadership are of this change, having significantly altered required, able to manage public expectations, the Earth’s biological, chemical and physical uncertainty, rapid change and an increasing processes. Many argue that our activities complexity of issues. are putting our planet at unprecedented risk, increasingly driving the Earth’s system towards Social media’s strength lies in its capacity to dangerous thresholds or tipping points.200 Yet organise interested individuals and groups to there is remarkably limited comprehension coalesce around specific issues. The March or acknowledgement of the scale, urgency 2013 #standwithRand Twitter hashtag and connectivity of the problems. All of the garnered thousands of tweets supporting megatrends and challenges outlined in Part United States Senator Rand Paul’s 13-hour A are interconnected. Understanding the filibuster protesting the potential use of drones connections between food, water and energy against American citizens on American soil; security; poverty alleviation; climate change; the #everydaysexism Twitter hashtag and population growth; ; website act as a database of misogynistic pandemic preparedness; and pollution control incidents across the globe, gaining 50,000 is crucial for tackling today’s challenges and Twitter followers and 30,000 posts in its improving the well-being of all societies. first year of operation.195 The speed at which information, incidents and ideas can be spread is This interconnection does, however, compound also transformative. The killing of 26-year-old the difficulties in addressing these challenges. Iranian Neda Agha-Soltan during street protests No one challenge can be seen in isolation and

52 5. Cultural Biases

solutions for one issue can exacerbate negative Stirling argues that “when science comes into Entrenched barriers shut many women and effects in another. Nations, regions and the contact with economic and political power, young people out of critical conversations global community lack the capacity, knowledge, there develops a strange kind of uncertainty and activities, whilst cultural differences resources and institutional frameworks to denial”.206 In meeting global challenges provide barriers to change. respond to, manage, and resolve all of these and considering the prospects for future competing interlocked challenges. Yet even generations, we necessarily must be tolerant of though today’s challenges know no borders, uncertainties. It is the balance of evidence, not Cultural differences international cooperation and coherence is often least on the implications of inaction, rather than undermined by fears of diminished domestic the certainty of outcomes, which should inform In 2011, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman control, and can be difficult to justify due to fiscal our judgements. Yet governments and citizens published the bestseller, Thinking, Fast and pressures at home. Science is occurring in more increasingly clamour for certainty. Slow. Kahneman’s insights into how psychology and more places than ever before201, yet the shapes judgment and decision-making – how ability of international collaboration to enable local Ironically, our discomfort with uncertainty does individual thinking is impacted by cognitive solutions and empower individuals is currently not apply in relation to other aspects of our lives. biases – highlight the relevance of cognitive and under-utilised and poorly understood. It should People insure their houses, cars and other assets cultural influences on the collaborative decisions also be recognised that, whilst scientific research against fire, flood, robbery and other incidents required for action on the challenges introduced is increasingly a global activity, occurring in more of low probability. For those that can afford it, in Part A.210 The attention given to Kahneman’s and more places than ever before, concerns and where it is available, insurance is commonly work is encouraging as a richer understanding remain that certain parts of the world, not least taken to cover health needs, travel, accidents, of how societal and cultural factors in decision- many countries in Africa, are largely excluded unemployment, and even weddings. Yet on other making may prove critical in helping us to from today’s global knowledge society. risks, like climate change, uncertainty is used as overcome the current failure to meet critical an excuse not to act. This is despite estimates, global challenges. As our Chair, Pascal Lamy, outlined in the Stern Review, that the probability argues, countries lack the capacity to speak Grappling with uncertainty of an abrupt climate catastrophe increases by 10 to each other openly, and explain their views percent for every additional degree of warming, on critical challenges, such as development, In a toast to , George Bernard once the threshold temperature is reached social justice, sovereignty and environmental Shaw once claimed that “science is always wrong. (which our Commissioner Nicholas Stern argues sustainability. What is lacking, Lamy argues, “is a It never solves a problem without creating averages five degrees above pre-industrial bedrock of common values capable of bringing ten more”.202 Compared to Einstein’s day, our temperatures).207 about a shared ambition for civilization”.211 collective breadth of scientific knowledge has grown extraordinarily, yet the depths of what “Hyperglobalisation”212 has transformed the we do not know remain immeasurable. Scholars No consensus on consensus core of modern societies, resulting in new such as Stuart Firestein argue that “somewhere interactions that create both opportunities along the superhighway of progress, we seem Coupled with this discomfort with uncertainty and tensions between individual and collective to have developed a kind of fact-fetishism that is a growing focus on consensus. Some scholars cultures and identities at local, national and shackles us to the allure of the known” and argue that the IPCC’s emphasis on building global levels.213 Yet simply because greater makes us uncomfortable with what is uncertain consensus amongst climate scientists has had numbers of people are living in the “contact and unknown.203 The reality is, however, that the unintended consequences of distorting zones”214 of other cultures and societies does from fracking to famine, climate change to the science, failing to reflect the complexity not mean their thinking on the big issues is cybersecurity, poverty to pandemics, scientific and inherent uncertainties of the problem, shared. In many instances, local cultures and advice has never been in greater demand, nor elevating the voices of scientists that dispute ways of life have been asserted and in some has it been more uncertain and contested,204 the consensus and undermining people’s trust in cases strengthened.215 One of Kahneman’s not least due to a growing recognition of the the IPCC.208 The concern about this consensus contemporaries, Dan Kahan, has compiled interconnections and complexities involved. Yet approach relates to the oversimplification of useful evidence on the way individuals and scientific uncertainty, an absence of consensus, what is a very complex and uncertain issue, groups think, paying special attention to and unclear relations between cause and effect even if the fundamental principle of climate the importance of culture. While some have too often are excuses for inaction. change is well accepted. touted the “end of ideology” and the arrival of greater homogeneity,216 Kahan and others Effective action to confront global challenges Expectation of a linear relationship between suggest cultural commitments still impact requires “not only a greater knowledge about expertise and power – whereby, first, science how people process information, including on the state of the planet and its resources, but or the broader research community has to “get public policy matters. Their research revealed also awareness that many aspects will remain it right” and then policy comes into play – is that cultural worldviews predicted individual unknown”.205 This necessity is in contradiction unhelpful in relation to many of today’s global beliefs about the seriousness of environmental with increasing political pressures to identify challenges, given the inherent uncertainty and technological risks more powerfully than an often artificially unambiguous evidence base embedded within.209 Though undoubtedly any other factor, including gender, race, for policy decisions today. Whilst reasoned politically inconvenient, we need to accept and income, education, and political ideology.217 Of scepticism and open disagreement about identify new ways to cope with uncertainty course, culture does not explain everything. uncertainties are amongst the most crucial in tackling global challenges, whilst strictly It may directly explain very little and must be distinguishing qualities of science, Andy upholding scientific rigour and accountability. contextualised; still, culture often orients the

53 prism through which individuals and groups working on policy challenges) to how facts are ownership not only damages society’s interpret and formulate beliefs around means presented and how policy instruments might commitment to fundamental human equality, and ends.218 unite differently-motivated but ultimately shared it also diminishes the contribution that could interests. Although we need to take peoples’ be made by half of the world’s human capital. Developing a deeper appreciation of how ideals and perspectives seriously, alternative Only 20.9 percent of national parliamentarians political, religious and moral intuitions similarly worldviews need not be “static and relentlessly across the globe are female.234 Women have bias our thinking, thus influencing our ability to oppositional”227. As Henrietta Moore has shown never occupied the top job at the United be objective, is necessary if we are to overcome in relation to the feminist movement, difference Nations, the World Trade Organization, the the obstacles to a shared understanding of the can be creative.228 New strategies to frame African Development Bank, the World Bank or problems and solutions. Jonathan Haidt, for information and policy ideas more appropriately the European Commission. As of March 2013, example, has recently argued conservatives are enabling those devoted to “competing ways only 17.3 percent of directorships of FTSE and liberals have equal sincerity in wanting the of life” and different worldviews to “converge 100 companies were headed by females.235 best for society, but fail to uncover mutual on shared understandings of societal risk and Ethnic minorities fare little better in business; agendas because they do not understand each the most effective means for abating them”.229 it was 2009 when the first black head of a other’s motivations.219 Academic disciplines, Presenting information “in forms that affirm FTSE 100 company was appointed.236 In the particularly from the natural and social sciences, rather their denigrate” values is just one current French National Assembly, there are are now increasingly encouraged to work across emerging way of responding positively to cultural only nine MPs of ethnic minority origin, out of a boundaries to draw new insights and alternative and other biases that impact the way we think, total of 577. 237 Such figures demonstrate that ways of framing questions. Given the multi- in order to progress collective action.230 The entrenched barriers to participation – including faceted complexity of global challenges, this is Commission recognises the depth and breadth of discrimination, socio-economic disadvantage, encouraging news. An enhanced understanding different cultures and traditions, and the extent and inflexible working practices – are far from on subjects straddling multiple academic areas is of the vital contribution to humanity arising from overcome. also needed, along with renewed interdisciplinary this diversity of histories and perspectives. It efforts to avoid disciplinary bias from obscuring is concerned, however, by the lack of common Today’s professionalised political sphere common and productive research agendas.220 values that bind members of the international provides another example of the shutting out system together. of alternative voices; a Institute survey found that 24 percent of the United Kingdom’s Same, same but different 2010 intake of MPs had an occupational The glass ceiling background of “politics”, a higher percentage A “precedence of difference over sameness” than those from any other field.238 Between has important, and perhaps misunderstood, Beyond cultural differences, entrenched and 1979 and 2010 the number of Labour MPs consequences for the pace of cooperation within conservative barriers against women and other who had done manual or clerical work dropped diverse and networked societies.221 Individual disadvantaged groups also impede more open from 40 percent to just 9 percent.239 Today it tendencies to identify points of difference rather conversations. IMF Managing Director Christine seems increasingly difficult to imagine a United than sameness may intensify in a globalised Lagarde claimed “If Lehman Brothers had been Kingdom politician emerging from a shop floor operating environment, heightening one’s sense a bit more Lehman Sisters, we would not have background in the mould of towering political of uncertainty.222 Perceived challenges to existing had the degree of tragedy that we had.”231 It figures from the past, such as Welsh miner cultures and identities brought on by exposure is impossible to know if more women in senior Aneurin Bevan, who spearheaded the creation to a multiplicity of other cultures and audiences financial positions would have avoided the risk- of the NHS or, outside the United Kingdom, can motivate “individuals and groups to maintain, taking that contributed to the Financial Crisis. electrician turned Nobel Prize-winning Polish defend, and even expand their local values and What is clear, however, is that too often people President Lech Walesa. practices”.223 This raises the importance of are shut out of critical conversations and key focusing on mutual interests, not just between decision-making roles based on their gender, It is not only certain citizens, communities people but also among cities, nations and ethnicity, background, and age, increasing the and classes that are left out of debates and countries. It also suggests more attention should risk of group-think by leaders possessing very decision-making, but countries too. The G7 be focused on the power of ideas, networks and similar characteristics. stands as a powerful example of a “club” that agents, the role of socialisation, and the inherent has been reluctant to expand its membership, path‑dependency of existing structures.224 Gender equality is not simply a moral imperative while pronouncing on global responsibilities to Academics and decision-makers are now but a policy priority that makes sense. According be shared by every region.240 This is despite considering whether current notions of “global” to UN Women, which until recently was led recent pronounced shifts in the global economic and “local” 225 provide “sufficient purchase by our Commissioner Michelle Bachelet, “the order which have seen G7 countries increasingly to understand the complex and rapid set of evidence is overwhelming and unambiguous: replaced by G20 countries as the group tackling interconnections, processes and aspirations women’s empowerment and gender equality the world’s major political and economic issues. through which meanings, goods and people flow, drive development progress”.232 There is a Smaller and poorer countries have little say in coalesce and diverge”.226 direct correlation between gender parity and these decision-making processes. Leadership a country’s level of competitiveness, GDP per of international institutions, too, has often been Responding to individual and collective capita and human development.233 Sidelining restricted, exemplified by the tacit agreement predispositions requires careful attention on women from senior roles, paying them less for that ensures that the World Bank is led by a the part of policymakers (and researchers equal work, and barring them from property United States citizen and the IMF by a European.

54 By giving voice to the voiceless and sharing best practice, alternative perspectives and solutions could help address the world’s key challenges.

What next?

Part B, Responsible Futures, of our report has outlined the Commission’s diagnosis of lessons from success and failure in addressing vital global challenges. We identified a number of shaping factors which we believe are impeding the capacity to generate change and close the gap between knowledge and action. To achieve this, a logical sequence of steps is required. We need to consolidate a strong knowledge base of the issue or challenge; we need to translate this knowledge into awareness of the problem, and its implications; from awareness, we need to mobilise energy to seek change; and, finally, we need to shift from mobilisation to action- and enforcement of action- in order to achieve the necessary change. To assist in this transition, we now turn to Part C, Practical Futures. Our aim is to provide practical recommendations that draw on the lessons above to suggest productive pathways for action. Part C provides illustrative responses to the challenges identified in Part A, Possible Futures by drawing on the insights in Part B of what works and what does not. We offer design principles and recommendations for action which we believe will contribute to a more inclusive and resilient future.

55 Part C: Practical Futures: Principles and Recommendations

56 1. Creative Coalitions Invest in multi-stakeholder partnerships to prompt deeper change, learning and practical action.

The world is slowly emerging from the devastating Financial Crisis. While the recovery C20- CyberEx: is fragile, with painfully high costs in many societies, the commitment to reform appears C30-C40: • A new early cyber warning platform, aimed solid. In this section, we step back to reflect at promoting a better understanding of on the lessons of this turbulent period and • A Coalition of the Working between common threats for the shared benefit suggest ways that we might manage our countries, companies and cities to counteract of government, corporate and individual global connectivity more effectively in the climate change interests future. The Commission believes fresh thinking is urgently required in order to address The Commission is convinced the fight against At a time when citizens are becoming increasingly critical global challenges and prevent future climate change requires renewed vigour in the sceptical of the ability of governments, crises. By outlining a number of principles for wake of repeatedly stalled multilateral efforts. businesses, banks and other service providers to action and providing thematic and practical To help kick-start the process, and as a building protect their data security, the development of recommendations, we aim to contribute block towards the multilateral negotiations in more robust, independent and trusted systems meaningfully to the necessary strategic and Paris in 2015, we recommend the creation of is required. Too many decisions regarding cyber institutional renewal. a new multi-stakeholder coalition. The C20- security rely on an inadequate evidence base, C30-C40 Coalition would bring the main due to inconsistent data and deficient reporting, The Commission’s recommendations aim to constituencies together, namely countries along with fragmented and inconsistent cyber assist policymakers, business leaders and (utilising the G20), companies (selecting 30 rules across different networks and systems. other decision influencers to overcome the companies affiliated to the World Business To respond, the Commission recommends the current gridlock in meeting a number of today’s Council for Sustainable Development), and establishment of an early warning platform for global challenges, and focus on the bigger cities (working through the existing C40 Cities the shared benefit of government, corporate picture. Our recommendations emphasise initiative). Embracing “inclusive minilateralism” and individual interests. CyberEx would act the importance of innovative partnerships, and reporting to the United Nations Framework as a trusted analyst of select data to identify openness and accountability, and underline Convention on Climate Change, the Coalition emerging common threats and help to coordinate the need to step beyond crisis management to could inspire countries, companies and cities to appropriately targeted and accessible responses. invest in the longer-term needs of our societies. undertake meaningful and practical action on This initiative could build on existing national Five key principles are used to organise our climate change.1 The Coalition could develop response systems, whilst also helping to provide recommendations, which we believe can targets on areas including: increased LED support in developing countries where cyber guide action and institutional change. Within street lighting; decreased commercial energy infrastructure is weakest.3 each, we provide illustrative examples of usage; promotion of more energy efficient recommendations. Some are directed at buildings, transport systems and housing CyberEx could be an independent exchange, immediate policy debates and offer pragmatic improvements; increased recycling rates; funded by participating stakeholders. It could ways forward. Others seek to address deeper and reduced wastage in both commercial and work to develop complete, consistent and political and cultural dynamics obstructing public facilities. The Coalition could also work comparable metrics of common threats, the shift to a longer-term focus. These to ensure accelerated market penetration enabling a more transparent and deeper recommendations are not necessarily new, and of highly efficient vehicles and biofuels, as understanding to inform better policies our examples are inevitably selective rather recommended by the International Climate over the longer term.4 The platform could than comprehensive. Our aim is to add direction Taskforce in 2005.2 Members could be required share information on global cyber system and weight to the momentum for action and, to track their greenhouse gas emissions via a weaknesses, suspicious internet traffic and in so doing, contribute to a better world for carbon calculator, with appropriate benchmarks malicious software, whilst also helping countries current and future generations. identified depending on the industry sector, and businesses identify and implement minimal country or city size. Membership could be technical and policy standards of cybersecurity.5 contingent on performance and an annual It could seek to minimise common vulnerabilities disclosure process, with an accreditation system that enable the theft of sensitive information put in place to reward the strongest performers. and the distribution of spam through systems, and work closely with international and domestic agencies to prevent common system attacks. The platform could also provide a useful mechanism for stakeholders to agree responses to collective concerns, such as privacy protection. By providing an accessible, open platform for information exchange, CyberEx could help governments, businesses and individuals to understand common threat patterns better, identify preventative measures, and minimise future attacks. Multi-stakeholder governance and transparency will be critical to ensure CyberEx is a trusted platform.

57 2. Innovative, Open and Reinvigorated Institutions Ensure 21st century institutions and measurements are open, fit for purpose and steered towards long‑term resilience.

Fit Cities: Decades, Fit for

• A city-based network to fight the rise of not Days: Purpose: NCDs and share practices to minimise the costs they inflict on health systems • Develop independent institutions • Build sunset clauses into all publicly-funded accountable to governments but able to international institutions and require a review The Commission recommends the creation of an operate across longer-term time horizons of accomplishments and mandates to ensure action-focused global network centred on cities they are fit for 21st century purposes and dedicated to fighting the rise of NCDs. The To enable governments to “focus more on WHO Draft Action Plan for the Prevention and steering rather than rowing”,7 the Commission The Commission has identified a number of Control of NCDs 2013–2020 was endorsed recommends they invest in innovative areas where new institutions will be valuable, earlier this year by the World Health Assembly, institutions. Such institutions should be and has also recommended reform of existing along with the associated proposed UN independent of the short-term pressures facing institutions. At the same time, the Commission Interagency Task Force.6 The “Fit Cities” Network governments of the day but appropriately acknowledges the importance of regular review could build on this momentum, cognisant of accountable to the political system in question. of institutional arrangements to ensure they are the fact that both developed and developing The pressures of day-to-day governing and fit for purpose. Since the establishment of the economies face a dual burden of communicable the 24/7 media cycle need not prejudice these UN and the Bretton Woods institutions over 60 and non-communicable disease. Fit Cities could institutions; rather, they should be charged with years ago, the number of international agencies focus on cities with populations over five million systematic reviews and analysis of has steadily grown, with “a spaghetti bowl of and bring food, beverage, and alcohol producers longer-term issues impacting their country and overlapping mandates”.17 The UN itself has over to the table in collaboration with public health region. Essential areas of policy formulation, twenty independent agencies and funds, each authorities, the UN Task Force, and the civil evaluation and implementation could benefit with varying degrees of independence. Whilst society coalition, The NCD Alliance. In addition to from more devolved authority and decentralised the mandates of many agencies have changed encouraging the enforcement of health promotion public service delivery. Useful models include or sprawled18 in different directions, not one regulation, Fit Cities could focus on the availability infrastructure and urban planning authorities agency has been closed down. of healthy food, quality of health education, like those in Australia8 and Singapore,9 and and effective mechanisms to enhance healthy the Tennessee Valley Authority in the United The Commission recommends the inclusion of lifestyles. The Network could draw inspiration States.10 The United Kingdom’s National Institute sunset clauses into the governance structures from other public health initiatives: the “Move- for Health and Care Excellence11 and Office of of the majority of international institutions, to-Improve” scheme recently instituted in New Budget Responsibility12 apply similar principles where appropriate. This is to ensure there is York City to help teachers integrate physical in health and fiscal policy. Institutional design regular reflection and analysis of organisational activity into all areas of the classroom is one such must naturally respond to the fundamental performance and purpose. Such analysis must be example. Participating cities could set measurable imperatives of legitimacy, accountability and transparent and inclusive, and inspire institutions targets based on the WHO’s Draft Action Plan; effectiveness. Creating institutions that are to be more innovative and adaptive within the most successful city could be awarded a somewhat insulated from short-term political their mandates in response to 21st century prize funded by modest subscriptions from all agendas or electoral terms may safeguard such demands. Where institutions are shown to members of the network. imperatives,13 particularly if the individuals have fulfilled their mandate and are no longer appointed to such institutions are suitably appropriate or adapted to the demands in protected from short-term biases.14 Political question, their functions should cease, with debate and decision-making processes also resources and activities redirected to more benefit from transparent and independent appropriate institutions and challenges. In the expert advice, provided it remains subject to absence of such constructive review, global appropriate accountability and oversight by governance institutions in many cases have failed parliaments or other bodies.15 Regional bodies, to evolve in pace with the changing nature of such as the European Union and the African the challenges, leading to a widening governance Union, as well as international professional gap and compounding questions of legitimacy bodies, can contribute significantly in advancing and effectiveness. Sunset clauses will not fully and upholding standards. Cross-party consensus address these concerns, but will be an important and support of the agenda and objective of step towards a more streamlined, effective, and such independent agencies is vital in order to reinvigorated global governance system. secure their stability, longevity, impartiality and effectiveness.16

58 polity,23 and OGP is well placed to act as this Open up platform. Global governance agencies could, Make the for example, be required to commit to OGP’s Politics: independently assessed “openness” action plans, Numbers whilst more bottom-up techniques to harness • Optimise new forms of political participation, global voices could be a powerful addition to Count: transparency and accountability, whilst the multilateral negotiations which are currently amplifying the voices of global citizens stymied. Individual leaders and decision-makers • Establish Worldstat, a specialist agency also need to be held to account. To this end, charged with putting confidence into our The Commission recommends renewed the Commission commends initiatives like the statistics over the long term commitment to transparent government and one recently announced by the World Economic deeper political engagement. Open government Forum and the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik Statistics underpin almost all key government has been described as an “essential foundation School of Government to develop a metric and business decisions, yet there are legitimate for economic, social and political progress, by for measuring the performance of heads of questions about the rigour of the numbers on strengthening the transparency of institutions” international organisations.24 which we rely. To address this shortcoming, the and enabling more informed decisions based on Commission calls for the creation of “Worldstat” more collaborative conversations.19 Momentum to undertake quality control of global statistics, is building: commitment to “open data” is assess domestic practices, regulate misuse, and increasingly seen as a powerful force for public improve data collection. Worldstat would not be accountability and scrutiny, particularly in a substitute for existing institutions such as the making existing information “easier to analyse, United Nations Statistical Commission or the process and combine than ever before”.20 More United Nations Statistics Division (both of which needs to be done to enable civil engagement, sit within the UN’s Economic and Social Council). influence, monitoring and participation on These UN agencies would continue to focus on longer-term issues. Governments should agreeing international statistical methodologies maximise the potential of new social media and standards suitable for the developed and tools to act as an arena to galvanise political developing worlds, which are adapted to the discussion and debate. Other “experiments” contemporary environment and facilitate in more inclusive government should also be international comparisons. tested, such as deliberative tools that empower citizens in decision-making.21 Worldstat, as a specialised agency or a separate entity, would ideally possess budgetary and The Open Government Partnership (OGP) is a resource capabilities on a scale comparable particularly welcome development. Initiated by with Eurostat, and could focus its attention Brazil, and now boasting over 50 participating on the implementation of agreed standards countries, this multilateral initiative works and capacity building for the accumulation to “secure concrete commitments from and interpretation of data, particularly in the governments to promote transparency, empower developing world. Worldstat could also fast- citizens, fight corruption, and harness new track work done at the international level on technologies to strengthen governance”.22 The new or emerging indicators for sustainable OGP collaborates with individual countries to development, and direct its attention to develop action plans on citizen participation, capacity building on this front. This might “access-to-information” laws, and anti-corruption include investing in deficient or absent civil disclosures, together with measures to improve registration systems so that the progress services, promote innovation and appropriately of sustainable development policies can be manage resources. The OGP publicly tracks properly tracked. Another key task for Worldstat progress and provides independent reports and could be to hasten the implementation of the assessments in order to promote accountability recommendations of the 2009 Commission on between member governments and citizens. The the Measurement of Economic Performance Commission calls for the OGP platform to be and Social Progress25, reinforcing the work being adopted by other institutions and governments, done to take forward those recommendations and for the platform’s work to be expanded to by the International Statistical Institute and strengthen coordination between citizens across the International Economic Association. These countries. Such coordination would enable a efforts would also heed recommendations stronger voice amongst global citizens on policies made by the World Bank on the measurement to address longer-term global challenges. As of employment and “linking information the Center for Global Development’s Nancy on a household’s income or consumption Birdsall has argued, global society needs better with information on the employment of its channels through which to influence global members”.26 Worldstat could also strive for

59 3. Revalue the Future Adjust political, legal and economic structures in favour of future generations.

greater quality control by benchmarking states and regions against best practice and fostering Transparent Focus Business greater sharing of data collection technology and expertise, interpretive know-how, and Taxation: on the Long the training of local actors. Worldstat would seek to work closely with sector specific • Establish a Voluntary World Taxation and Term: global initiatives such as the Global Burden of Regulatory Exchange Disease project, a collaborative study led by the • Financial institutions and businesses should Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation which In order to help harmonise company taxation look beyond the next reporting cycle measures the impact of hundreds of diseases, arrangements, promote information sharing, injuries and risk factors across more than 20 and enhance transparency, the Commission The Commission urges that priority be given to regions. Worldstat would also utilise and invest recommends the establishment of a Voluntary implementing the recommendations made by the in new technological tools and partner with World Taxation and Regulatory Exchange. The Group of 30 on Long-term Finance, particularly businesses and universities for the purposes aim of the Exchange would be to encourage the proposals surrounding long-term accounting of generating, collecting, aggregating and multinational corporations to disclose their tax frameworks, development of infrastructure for interpreting data. planning and transfer pricing arrangements capital markets in developing countries, and the (either confidentially or on the record) and for redirection of structural surpluses in national governments to reveal rulings on preferential savings to diversified sovereign wealth funds tax regimes, including the percentage of with a long-term investment mandate.28 In activity required for preferential treatment. The particular, the Commission believes the G30’s call Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF could be for the creation of dedicated long-term financial considered as a possible site for the Exchange, institutions should be prioritised. This requires which would enhance information sharing the public and private sectors to work together between tax administrations internationally, and to establish lending institutions and investment raise public pressure on tax abuse and avoidance intermediaries with long-term mandates. schemes. The Exchange is intended to reinforce Such institutions could include infrastructure the overall framework of the OECD/G20 Base banks, green finance, small business banks and Erosion and Profit Shifting Action Plan (“BEPS innovation funds, whereby funding is provided Project”) to ensure that multinationals pay their directly through a public sector institution or fair share of tax and that profits generated in the indirectly through guarantees to the private digital economy are not unfairly and artificially sector. On a related front, the International shifted to other jurisdictions. The Exchange is Accounting Standards Board of the IFRS, in intended to be voluntary, such that collective conjunction with the World Business Council for pressure is generated by increased transparency Sustainable Development, UN Global Compact, and by companies electing to set an example. the new B-Team initiative, and other forward- As anticipated by the OECD/G20 BEPS Project, looking business initiatives and private-public such commitments could be formalised in due partnerships, could work together to promote course by a multilateral instrument.27 longer-term business horizons and potentially develop a “health” assessment for listed companies. This assessment would concentrate on long-term value creation and absolute performance, taking into account portfolio churn, remuneration incentives, length of investments, shareholder voting rights, organisational talent and tenure, time dedicated to long-term strategy deliberations, and innovative capacity. A specific spotlight on the long-term health of companies could help to “build long-termism into companies’ DNA”. This would reinforce proposals in the Kay Review of United Kingdom Equity Markets and Long-Term Decision Making to “reduce the pressures for short-term decision-making that arise from excessively frequent reporting of financial and investment performance (including quarterly reporting by companies), and from excessive reliance on particular metrics and models for measuring performance, assessing risk and valuing assets”.29

60 rights-based land tenure and agrarian reform. Discounting: Invest in As is the case in agriculture, hydrocarbon subsidies are currently highly regressive, so it • End discrimination against future generations People: is vital to alleviate their undue burden on the poorest whilst ultimately shifting investment The Commission does not believe that future • Remove price-distorting perverse subsidies towards more renewable energy sources. The generations should be discriminated against on hydrocarbons and agriculture, with Commission also suggests these policy changes simply because they are born tomorrow and support redirected to targeted pro-poor should, wherever possible, be considered not today. Discounting is an essential tool used transfer alongside a reduction of subsidies on harmful to calculate the future value of something crops such as tobacco, palm oil and sugar. today. It plays a central task, for example, in Our Commissioner Kishore Mahbubani describes Reducing subsidies can be politically difficult, weighing up the costs of taking action now price-distorting subsidies on hydrocarbons as evidenced by the reactions to the removal to avoid climate disasters later this century. and agriculture as “the dragon that needs to of subsidies in Nigeria in 201233 and recent Governments frequently make decisions, such as be slayed for a better world”. The Commission similar controversies over rice in Thailand.34 To in infrastructure investment or climate change agrees. Creating a more level playing field is overcome this, governments should analyse policy, which have significant implications for essential for the restoration of economic growth, and articulate the regressive disadvantages future generations. In doing so, they weigh up the reduction of global inequalities, and for and waste associated with current subsidies, costs and benefits that will occur at different sustainable development. In matters related and highlight the benefits of a well-targeted, points in time. Too often, these calculations give to trade, the Commission believes that the more sustainable social programme.35 Clear, less weight to the worth of future generations, successful conclusion of the Doha Trade Round transparent data and communication is critical, and to the implications of certain decisions on should be given greater priority. Alongside these as is providing a realistic time frame and notice them, in large measure because of a casual, efforts, concerted effort must be directed period to assist in the transition and adaptation mechanical, and partially-understood approach towards price-distorting subsidies. Perverse to the elimination of perverse subsidies. to discounting. The Commission believes future subsidies on activities and industries that cause generations should not be discriminated against climate change result in a loss of , damage simply because they exist in the future and do our biodiversity and waste natural resources, not currently have political or economic influence. and are estimated to cost over a trillion United Any discounting of impacts on future generations States dollars per year globally.30 Efforts such as of today’s decisions should be made in relation to the 2009 G20 pledge to phase out hydrocarbon the expected change in their well-being, which subsidies in the “medium-term” are encouraging, may be positive or negative, not simply because but tangible action is required immediately. these generations are born at a later date. We In reducing global dependency on agricultural wish to emphasise that unless strong action is and hydrocarbon subsidies, the savings made taken on climate, the environment and resources, by removing subsidies could at least in part be there is a real risk that they will be worse off. redirected to targeted, pro-poor transfers. Such transfers, if properly designed and implemented, The Commission believes greater attention could contribute both to long-term poverty should be given to the considerable implications reduction and environmental sustainability. generated by assumptions in current discounting Several countries have already taken the models and their bias against future generations. lead in reducing fossil fuel subsidies; India has The Commission believes short-term market implemented Aaadhar (unique identification rates of return on interest in imperfect number) based Direct Benefit Transfer for LPG markets are of limited relevance to collective consumers with the aim of improving subsidy decisions concerning for the long term. administration of LPG across the country; Ghana These considerations imply that in a world of cut subsidies in February 2013; Indonesia considerable uncertainty about future levels announced policies to reduce subsidy expenditure of well-being it would be wise to work with in May 2012; and substantially reduced discounts that rely less heavily on extrapolation, energy subsidies in December 2010 as part of a including for infrastructure and resources issues. wider five-year programme to gradually increase Whilst it is recognised that discounting is used prices of oil products, natural gas and electricity for different purposes and under different to full cost prices.31 circumstances, it is the Commission’s belief that the rate used should be lower, rather than higher. In agriculture, pro-poor transfers could include: When evaluating the costs of action and inaction, subsidising fertilisers for the poorest farmers policymakers need to ensure discounting in low-income countries and encouraging embraces a more sophisticated appreciation of “evergreen” agricultural practices (as used the role of ethics, risk, and the scale of possible in Malawi)32; monetary incentives for more damages in the future. sustainable land-use practices such as crop diversification and recycling; and support for

61 4. Invest in Younger Generations Foster a more inclusive and empowered society by prioritising and accelerating efforts to address child poverty and create new employment and training opportunities for young people.

to invest in their children, often paying for Measure Attack education and health care, which can have multiplier effects through boosting funding into Long-term Poverty at the local economy. In resource-rich countries, such initiatives can help redistribute resource Impact: its Source: revenues to the less advantaged in society. Investment in such social interventions must be • Success in governance and anti-corruption • Break the inter-generational persistence accompanied by appropriate infrastructure and efforts should spur the creation of an index of poverty through social protection oversight mechanisms to ensure funds are used focused on long-term impact measures such as conditional cash transfer most effectively and reach those most in need. programmes The Commission is encouraged by evidence Building on the advances of the World Bank, that in middle and higher income countries the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, Transparency As demonstrated in Part B, crisis can be an approximately 25 percent of fiscal stimulus International and other agencies in measuring essential element in inspiring transformative measures post-crisis have been targeted at governance, the Commission recommends the policy change. In the 1930s, the Great social protection measures: this momentum development of a Long-Term Impact Index (“the Depression led to new forms of social must not be lost.39 Index”). The Index would highlight the importance protection through the New Deal, which was of investing in appropriate infrastructure and credited with raising living standards and decision-making processes that enhance longer- domestic demand in the United States. As term resilience and inclusiveness. The Index would we slowly emerge from the current Financial rate the effectiveness of leaders of countries, Crisis, now is a historic opportunity to “rethink companies and international organisations in the relationship between growth, public addressing longer-term challenges. Given its intervention and social protection”.36 The focus on long-term goals, the Index would Commission believes it is time to address the primarily assess processes and policies, rather inter-generational persistence of poverty than deliverables. A small, manageable number through social assistance measures, such as of indicators and a select group of countries, conditional cash transfers. Such measures companies and organisations would be included should complement sustained investment in in the first instance to test and develop the health and education infrastructure to ensure Index. The indicators might include tracking of that children are able to reach their full potential median (rather than average) household income; throughout all stages of life. Support for biodiversity protection; quality of civil registration research and innovation is also critical to drive systems; the nature and scope of long-term economic growth and provide opportunities institutions, committees and infrastructure; for younger generations, not least if local planning and budgeting horizons; company knowledge and expertise can be enabled and “health” metrics; transparency of tenure and applied to addressing local issues and priorities. selection of leaders; openness of decision‑making processes; measures to enhance female and Falling into poverty during childhood can last youth participation; rule of law deference a lifetime. Missed opportunities in education and stability; carbon neutrality; and change in or inadequate nutrition can have devastating inequality over time. To complement the Index, impacts on a child’s long-term development, the Commission suggests the establishment leaving them vulnerable to life-threatening of a prize that recognises contributions to diseases, and more likely to underperform posterity and a commitment to practices and as adults. As UNICEF argues, “child poverty procedures oriented towards the long term. The threatens not only the individual child, but is prize would be supported by a range of partners likely to be passed on to future generations, in business, civil society and academia, and be entrenching and even exacerbating inequality based on data drawn from Worldstat and other in society”.37 The Commission calls for more collaborators. It would be awarded every two countries to consider protective, preventative, years, alternating between best performer and and transformative measures, such as most improved. conditional cash transfers, as a critical part of a strategy to address inter-generational poverty. Experience from countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Malawi and Zambia suggests that cash transfers can have positive impacts on reducing children’s poverty, either through measures directly targeted at children or indirectly through raising household income.38 Poor families use cash transfers

62 5. Establish a Common Platform of Understanding

is a significant investment, which needs A Future for to be tailored to each country’s needs and Build Shared resources, not least in developing countries, the Youth: Commission believes the benefits of investing Global Values: in an active and inclusive workforce for • Invest in youth guarantees to reduce young people outweigh the costs. To be truly • Articulate a common global vision and “scars” of long-term unemployment and successful, however, youth guarantee schemes ambition disconnection require a broader partnership of government agencies, employers, youth and student It is the Commission’s view that efforts The Commission calls for urgent priority to organisations, education and training providers, to address today’s global challenges are be given to the dual global challenges of and young people themselves.42 Involving undermined by the absence of shared global unemployment and underemployment. We these different groups in the formation of values and a shared vision for global civilisation. accept there are no easy, one-size-fits-all such policies will ensure they are appropriately As Commission Chair Pascal Lamy has stated, solutions to these problems, but identifying adapted to the national context and contribute global governance and cooperation will remain initiatives to facilitate a more inclusive, to the overall success of the schemes. This is an alien concept as long as there is no feeling productive and flexible workforce must be a especially important in developing countries of global belonging amongst citizens.44 Too higher priority for government and business where governments face greater financial or many countries feel that current global models leaders. Of greatest urgency is the need institutional constraints. Nevertheless, recent and methods are embedded in a historical, to address the youth employment crisis. policy innovations in countries like Kenya and “Western” framework. In today’s interconnected Approximately 75 million young people are reveal how some of these constraints world, we need a common platform for dialogue out of work globally, of whom 6 million have can be tackled.43 that speaks to all cultures and countries and given up looking for a job, whilst more than seeks to advance common understanding and 200 million young people work in informal, low build a better world for future generations. It is productivity or insecure jobs.40 the Commission’s view that the pressures of a deeply interconnected world require a stronger The social and economic characteristics of collective vision regarding our future and the youth unemployment vary amongst countries longer-term needs of our societies, including and regions. Nevertheless, young people mutual respect and adherence to a set of need to be assigned higher priority within universal norms which have been collectively broader macroeconomic and labour market developed and agreed.45 The Commission policies which aim to foster pro-employment supports an incremental commitment to a growth and decent job creation. To assist platform of common values, building on the in this endeavour, the Commission calls for aspirations of the United Nations Charter and sustained investment in youth guarantee work that has already been undertaken by programmes. Youth guarantees typically the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, as include a combination of education and training well as by civil society initiatives such as the (general education, vocational education and Earth Charter46 and the InterAction Council’s training); employment services and programmes proposed Universal Declaration of Human (employment planning, job-search assistance, Responsibilities.47 Such a shared platform, workshops or rehabilitation); and active labour developed through a wide-ranging dialogue market measures (on-the-job training and between different political leaders, , apprenticeships, community services, business scholars and citizens, would elucidate a shared start-up programmes). Collectively, these set of goals for humanity. By seeking to support guarantees aim to promote a smooth transition and add momentum to existing initiatives, the from education to work and prevent long- process of creating such a shared understanding term unemployment for young people. The of our key interests could also help foster Commission believes youth guarantees should reconciliation between different countries and be available to all who fit a pre-defined criteria groups of countries. The United Nations Charter, related to age (typically between 15 and 29 with its inspiring preamble (“We the peoples years old) and duration of unemployment of the United Nations…”), remains a vital (ideally between one and six months of cornerstone of shared global norms and values. inactivity). Modelled on successful programmes Yet our world requires a renewed pledge for in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Austria, Germany, the future. If we care about the prospects for the Netherlands and Poland, the ILO estimates our children and future generations, as well as youth guarantees can be implemented at an our planet, articulating an updated set of broad annual cost of between 0.5 and 1.5 percent concerns and shared principles could provide a of GDP (depending on existing infrastructure useful foundation for action. capacity to deliver the programme, and the size of the eligible population).41 Whilst this

63 64 What Next?

In Part A of this report – Possible Futures – the Commission identified some of the key megatrends and challenges that are likely to shape our future and introduced possible responses to them. In Part B – Responsible Futures – we sought to draw lessons from examples of where global action was successful, and where it had failed, identifying the shaping factors that undermine our collective ability to act today. In Part C – Practical Futures – we have outlined a number of broad principles and more practical recommendations, aimed at providing impetus to overcome obstacles and inspire action. Our hope is that readers will be spurred to explore these ideas further, and will find them helpful as they seek to improve the lives of current and future generations. As a Commission, we will continue to engage with governments, businesses, NGOs and civil society in order to take our recommendations forward. We hope our readers will find ways to contribute to raising awareness of the challenges we face and through their actions bridge the current gap between our knowledge of the challenges and the associated actions. By so doing, we hope that together we can contribute to the construction of a sustainable world for current and future generations.

We invite you to engage with us on these issues at www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/commission

65 Endnotes

66 Introduction Part A

1 Daron Acemoglu, “The World our 3(1), (2008): 165–90, pp. 172–3. 17 A megatrend is “an important shift Grandchildren will Inherit: The Rights 15 See Hubert Hermans and Giancarlo in the progress of a society or of any Revolution and Beyond”, NBER Working Dimaggio, The Dialogical Self in other particular field or activity; any Paper 17994 (Cambridge, MA: National Psychotherapy: An Introduction (London: major movement”. See Oxford English Bureau of Economic Research, 2012), Routledge, 2004), pp. 32–3, 46. , “Megatrend”, online, 2013, pp. 4–5. 16 Ibid., p. 32. http://www.oed.com/ 2 See World Bank “An Update to the 18 Emile Simpson, War From the Ground Up World Bank’s Estimates of Consumption (London: Hurst, 2012), p. 242. Poverty in the Developing World”, 19 UNFPA, The State of World Population, Global Poverty Update, 2012. 2011 (New York: United Nations http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ Population Fund), p. 5. INTPOVCALNET/Resources/Global_ 20 Aric Bendolf, “World Population Trends Poverty_Update_2012_02-29-12.pdf Towards 2050 and Beyond”, Strategic (accessed 17 September 2013); and The Analysis Paper, 24 February (, Economist, “Towards the End of Poverty”, WA: Future Directions International, (1 June 2013). 2010), http://www.futuredirections. 3 Kishore Mahbubani, The Great org.au/files/1269848200-FDI%20 Convergence: Asia, the West, and Strategic%20Analysis%20Paper%20 the of One World (New York: 24%20February%202010.pdf PublicAffairs, 2013), pp. 1–3, 10–12. 21 UN-DESA, World Population Prospects: 4 Geoff Mulgan, Good and Bad Power: The 2012 Revision – Key Findings and The Ideals and Betrayals of Government Advance Tables (New York: United (London: , 2006), p. 306. Nations, Department of Economic and 5 Ibid., p. 307. Social Affairs, 2013), p. 3. 6 This point has been enriched by a 22 UN-DESA, World Population to 2300 conversation between Professor Ian (New York: United Nations, Department Goldin and Strobe Talbott, to whom the of Economic and Social Affairs, 2004), p. Commission is grateful. 21; and WHO, “World Health Day 2012 7 The Gabcíkovo-Nagymaros Case – Toolkit for Event Organizers”, World (Slovakia/Hungary), International Court Health Organization, http://www.who. of Justice, 1997 at 107. int/world-health-day/2012/toolkit/ 8 Ibid., at 110. background/en/index.html 9 See Thomas Princen, “Long-Term 23 José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, “The Decision-Making: Biological and World at a Crossroads: The Employment Psychological Evidence”, Global Challenge Facing the World Today”, Environmental Politics, 9(3), (2009): Keynote Speech (Osaka, Japan: Rokin–ILO 9–19, p. 10. International Symposium, 25 November 10 , The McDonaldisation of 2012), p. 7. http://www.ilo.org/ Society: An Investigation into the Changing wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/-- Character of Contemporary Social Life -ed_emp_msu/documents/statement/ (London: Pine Forge Press, 1992), cited wcms_193611.pdf in Toon van Meijl, “Culture and Identity 24 Sarah Harper, “Going Grey: The Mediation in Anthropology: Reflections on ‘Unity’ of Politics in an Ageing Society by Scott and ‘Uncertainty’ in the Dialogical Self”, Davidson”, Times Higher Education, International Journal for Dialogical Science, (14 March 2013), http://www. 3(1), (2008): 165–90, p. 166. timeshighereducation.co.uk/books/ 11 Hubert Hermans and Giancarlo Dimaggio, going-grey-the-mediation-of-politics- The Dialogical Self in Psychotherapy: An in-an-ageing-society-by-scott- Introduction (London: Routledge, 2004), davidson/2002447.article; See also The p. 34. Economist, “China’s Achilles Heel”, (21 12 Mary Watkins, “Dialogue, Development, April 2012), which notes the median age and Liberation”, in Ingrid E. Josephs (ed), in China is predicted to rise by 14 years to Dialogicality in Development (Westport, almost 49 by 2050, whereas the rise in CT: Praeger, 2003), pp. 87–109, cited in the United States is projected to be three Hubert Hermans and Giancarlo Dimaggio, years, to 40. The Dialogical Self in Psychotherapy: An 25 See Christophe Guilmoto, “Sex-ratio Introduction (London: Routledge, 2004), imbalance in Asia: Trends, Consequences p. 35. and Policy Responses”, Gender Equality 13 , “One World? Many Study (United Nations Population Fund, Worlds? The Place of Regions in the Study 2007), p. 1. http://www.unfpa.org/ of International Society”, International gender/docs/studies/summaries/ Affairs, 83(1), (2007): 127–46, p. 136. regional_analysis.pdf 14 Kathryn Woodward, Identity and Difference 26 ILO, International Labour Migration: (London: Sage/Open Press, 1997), cited A Rights-Based Approach (Geneva: in Toon van Meijl, “Culture and Identity International Labour Office, 2010), pp. in Anthropology: Reflections on ‘Unity’ 15, 21. and ‘Uncertainty’ in the Dialogical Self”, 27 See World Bank, “Developing Countries to International Journal for Dialogical Science, Receive Over $400 Billion in Remittances

67 Part A continued

in 2012, says World Bank Report”, Press com/assets/Dcom-SouthAfrica/Local%20 of Global Economic Growth”, Financial Release, 20 November 2012. http:// Assets/Documents/rise_and_rise.pdf; Times, (4 June 2013). www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- and Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, James 47 Pascal Lamy, “Multilateralism is at a release/2012/11/20/developing- Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit and Crossroads”, Speech at the Humboldt- countries-to-receive-over-400-billion- Fabian Schaer, Urban World: Cities and the Viadrina School of Governance, Berlin, remittances-2012-world-bank-report Rise of the Consuming Class (McKinsey (26 June 2012), http://www.wto.org/ (accessed 22 July 2013). Around 10 Global Institute, 2012), http://www. english/news_e/sppl_e/sppl_e.htm percent of the Filipino population, for mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/ 48 Karen Ward, “The World in 2050: From example, works or lives abroad; their urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_ the Top 30 to the Top 100”, HSBC Global remittances make up between 10–15 consuming_class Research, Global Economics Report, percent of the ’ GDP. See 35 EFA, Youth and Skills: Putting Education January (London: HSBC Bank, 2012); Veronica Bayangos and Karel Jansen, to Work, Education for All, Global and Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, “The “Remittances and Competitiveness: the Monitoring Report (Paris: UNESCO, World at a Crossroads: The Employment Case of the Philippines”, ISS Working 2012), p. 8, http://unesdoc.unesco.org/ Challenge Facing the World Today”, Paper 492 (The Hague: International images/0021/002175/217509E.pdf Keynote Speech (Osaka, Japan: Rokin–ILO Institute of Social Studies, 2010), p. 10. 36 OECD, Education at a Glance (Paris: International Symposium, 25 November 28 UN-DESA, World Urbanization Prospects: OECD Publishing, 2012), http://www. 2012), p. 6., http://www.ilo.org/ The 2011 Revision (New York: United .org/edu/highlights.pdf wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/-- Nations, Department for Economic and 37 EFA, Youth and Skills: Putting Education to -ed_emp_msu/documents/statement/ Social Affairs, 2012). Work, Education for All, Global Monitoring wcms_193611.pdf 29 UN Habitat, The Challenge of Slums: Report (Paris: UNESCO, 2012), pp. 49 NIC, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed Global Report on Human Settlements 11–12 , http://unesdoc.unesco.org/ World (Washington DC: United States (London: Earthscan and United Nations images/0021/002175/217509E.pdf National Intelligence Council, November Human Settlements Programme 2003). 38 UNESCO, “Education: Goal 2, Achieve 2008), p. 7, http://www.fas.org/irp/ See also Pietro Garau, Elliot Sclar and Universal Primary Education”, 2013. nic/2025.pdf Gabriella Caroloni, Improving the Lives http://www.unesco.org/new/en/ 50 Brookings Global Economy and of Slum Dwellers, UN Millennium Project education/themes/leading-the- Development, Top 10 Global Economic (London: Earthscan, 2005), pp. 11–21. international-agenda/education-for-all/ Challenges: An Assessment of Global 30 See Foresight, Migration and Global education-and-the-mdgs/goal-2/ Risks and Priorities (Washington DC: The Environmental Change, Final Project 39 World Bank, “Energy – The Facts”, 2011, Brookings Institution, 2007), p. 13. Report (London: Government Office for http://go.worldbank.org/6ITD8WA1A0 51 The Royal Society, Knowledge, Networks Science, 2011), p. 13. 40 OECD, Divided We Stand: Why Inequality and Nations (London: The Royal Society, 31 As defined on the basis of absolute Keeps Rising (OECD: Paris, 2011), p. 49. 28 March 2011). household income of USD$3,000- 41 ILO, World of Work Report 2013: 52 WTO, World Trade Report 2008: Trade 15,000. See Karen Ward and Frederic Repairing the Economic and Social in a Globalizing World (World Trade Neumann, “Consumer in 2050: The Rise Fabric (Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2008), p. 15, http:// of the EM Middle Class”, HSBC Global Organization, 2013), p. 1. www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/ Research, Global Economics Report 42 ILO, “Global Unemployment Rising Again anrep_e/world_trade_report08_e.pdf (London: HSBC Bank, October 2012), but with Significant Differences Across 53 WTO, “Trade Growth to Slow in 2012 pp. 20-21, http://www.hsbc.com.vn/1/ Regions”, Global Employment Trends After Strong Deceleration in 2011”, WTO PA_ES_Content_Mgmt/content// 2013, News, 22 January 2013. http:// Press Release 658, 12 April 2012, http:// abouthsbc/newsroom/attached_files/ www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/ www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres12_e/ HSBC_report_Consumer_in_2050_EN.pdf newsroom/news/WCMS_202320/lang- pr658_e.htm 32 Ibid., See also the graph in ILO, “Rise of -en/index.htm 54 Pascal Lamy, “Women Entrepreneurs Middle-Class Jobs in the Developing 43 Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil, “The as Engine of Growth: Challenges, World Could Spur Growth”, Global World Order in 2050”, Policy Outlook Financial Access and Global Trade”, Employment Trends 2013, News, 23 (Carnegie Endowment for International Speech to Geneva International Women January 2013. http://www.ilo.org/ Peace, April 2010); The Economist, “A Fall Entrepreneurs’ Forum, 5 July 2013. global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/ to Cheer”, 3 March 2012. 55 For further details of the OECD-WTO WCMS_202481/lang--en/index.htm 44 See World Bank “An Update to the World joint initiative on Measuring Trade in 33 Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, James Bank’s Estimates of Consumption Poverty Value Added see OECD, “Measuring Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit in the Developing World”, Global Poverty Trade in Value Added: An OECD-WTO and Fabian Schaer, Urban World: Cities Update, 2012, http://siteresources. Joint Initiative”, http://www.oecd.org/ and the Rise of the Consuming Class worldbank.org/INTPOVCALNET/ industry/ind/measuringtradeinvalue- (McKinsey Global Institute, 2012), Resources/Global_Poverty_ addedanoecd-wtojointinitiative.htm; and http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/ Update_2012_02-29-12.pdf (accessed OECD-WTO, “OECD-WTO Database on urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_ 17 September 2013) Trade in Value added: First Estimates: 16 the_rise_of_the_consuming_class 45 UNDP, “Gender Equality and UNDP”, Fast January 2013”, 34 ILO, “Global Unemployment Rising Again Facts, July. (New York: United Nation 56 http://www.oecd.org/sti/ but with Significant Differences Across Development Programme, 2011), http:// industryandglobalisation/TIVA_stats%20 Regions”, Global Employment Trends www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/ flyer_ENG.pdf 2013, News, 22 January 2013. http:// library/corporate/fast-facts/english/FF- 57 See WEF, Enabling Trade: Valuing Growth www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/ Gender-Equality-and-UNDP.pdf Opportunities (Geneva: World Economic newsroom/news/WCMS_202320/lang- 46 See Matthew O’Brien, “Emerging Power: Forum, 2012). -en/index.htm. See also Deloitte “Deloitte Developing Nations Now Claim the 58 Daron Acemoglu, “The World our on Africa: The Rise and Rise of the African Majority of World GDP”, The Atlantic, 4 Grandchildren will Inherit: The Rights Middle Class” (Johannesburg: Deloitte June 2013; and Chris Giles and Kate Allen, Revolution and Beyond”, NBER Working & Touche, 2013), http://www.deloitte. “Southeastern Shift: The New Leaders Paper 17994 (Cambridge, MA: National

68 Part A continued

Bureau of Economic Research, 2012), p. 9. Report (Paris: International Energy xii. See also The , “President 59 Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Association, 2013), pp. 26–8. Obama’s Plan to Fight Climate Change”, Our Nature (London: Penguin, 2011), 70 See Jerome Glenn, Theodore Gordon (25 June 2012), http://www.whitehouse. p. 836; and Kishore Mahbubani, The and Elizabeth Florescu, 2008 State of gov/share/climate-action-plan Great Convergence: Asia, the West, the Future, Millennium Development 81 Foresight, Migration and Global and the Logic of One World (New York: Project (Washington DC: United Nations Environmental Change, Final Project PublicAffairs, 2013), p. 17. University), p. 16. Report (London: Government Office for 60 See the “Correlates of War Index”, www. 71 Karen Ward, Zoe , Nick Robins, Paul Science, 2011), pp. 56–7. correlatesofwar.org Spedding and Charanjit Singh, “Energy 82 See CBD, Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 61 See Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (London: in 2050: Will Fuel Constraints Thwart (Montréal: Secretariat of the Convention Simon & Schuster, 1995), pp. 202–206. our Growth Projections?” HSBC Global on Biological Diversity, 2010), pp. 9–10. 62 See Sir John Beddington, “Food, Energy, Research, Global Economics & Climate 83 Kathy Willis and Shonil Bhagwat, Water and the Climate: A Perfect Storm Change Report (London: HSBC Bank, “Biodiversity and Climate Change”, of Global Events?”, mimeo (London: March 2011), p. 21. Science, 326(5954), (2009): 806–807. Government Office for Science, 2009), 72 See Erik Mielke, Laura Diaz Anadon 84 Julian Hunt and Yulia Timonshkina, http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/goscience/ and Venkatesh Narayanamurti, “Water “Growing Challenges of Megacities and docs/p/perfect-storm-paper.pdf Consumption of Energy Resource Climate Change”, in Policy and Public 63 See Ebrahim Azarpour, Maral Extraction, Processing, and Conversion”, Affairs (ed.), Future Risk: Climate Change Moraditochaee and Hamid Reza Bozorgi, Energy Technology Innovation Policy and Energy Security – Global Challenges “Evaluating Energy Balance and Energy Discussion Paper 2010–15 (Cambridge, and Implications. Centenary Future Risk Indicies of Wheat Production in Rain- MA: Belfer Center for Science and Series: Report 3 (London: The Chartered Fed Farming in Northern Iran”, African International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy Insurance Institute, 2012), pp. 31–8, p. Journal of Agricultural Research, 7(16), School, October 2010), pp. 5–6. 31. (2012): 2569–74; UN, “World Water 73 UN, Millennium Development Goals 85 Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Day: FAQ”, (2012), http://www.unwater. Report 2012 (New York: United Nations, Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge: org/worldwaterday/faqs.html; Vaclav 2012), p. 52. Compared with 20 years Cambridge and London: Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: ago, over 670 million more people in East UK Cabinet Office and HM Treasury, General Energetics of Complex Systems Asia and the Pacific can access improved 2006), p. vii. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008). drinking water, but progress has been 86 Joshua Salomon, Haidong Wang, Michael 64 See Bernice Lee, Felix Preston, Jaakko uneven. See UNICEF, “A Snapshot – 2012 Freeman, Theo Vos, Abraham Flaxman, Kooroshy, Rob Bailey and Glada Lahn, Update: Water Supply in East Asia and Alan Lopez, and Christopher Murray, Resource Futures: A Chatham House the Pacific”, (Bangkok: UNICEF, East Asia “Healthy Life Expectancy for 187 Report (London: Royal Institute of and Pacific Regional Office, 2012), p. 1, Countries, 1990–2010: A Systematic International Affairs, December 2012). http://www.unicef.org/eapro/EAPRO_ Analysis for the Global Burden Disease “While global water withdrawals have Water_Snapshot_2012.pdf Study 2010”, Lancet, 380(9859), tripled in the last 50 years, the reliable 74 See UN, The Millennium Development (2012): 2144–62, p. 2147. supply of water has stayed relatively Goals Report 2010, p. 52; UNICEF and 87 Barry Popkin, “The Nutrition Transition and constant during the same period” (Ibid., p. WHO, Progress on Drinking Water and Obesity in the Developing World”, Journal xii). Sanitation: 2012 Update (New York: of Nutrition, 131(3): 871S–873S. For 65 Our Finite World, “World Energy UNICEF and WHO, 2012), pp. 5, 9, and specific country data see IHME,The Consumption Since 1820 in Charts”, 15, http://www.unicef.org/media/files/ Global Burden of Disease: Generating (12 March 2012), http://ourfiniteworld. JMPreport2012.pdf Evidence, Guiding Policy (Seattle: Institute com/2012/03/12/world-energy- 75 See FAO, “How to Feed the World in for Health Metrics and Evaluation, 2013), consumption-since-1820-in-charts/ 2050”, FAO High-Level Expert Forum, p. 32. 66 FAO, “Road to Rio: Improving Energy Use 2009, http://www.fao.org/wsfs/ 88 WHO, “Noncommunicable Diseases Key Challenge For World’s Food Systems” forum2050/en/ (NCD)” Global Health Observatory, (Food and Agricultural Organization, 14 76 World Bank, “Water: At a Glance”, (2013), http://www.who.int/gho/ncd/ June 2012), http://www.fao.org/news/ April 2013, http://go.worldbank.org/ en/index.html story/en/item/146971/icode/ B54EGVXLP0 89 WHO, Global Status Report on Non- 67 UNESCO, UN World Water Development 77 Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Communicable Diseases (Geneva: World Report 4 – Managing Water under Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge: Health Organization, 2011), p. 3. Uncertainty and Risk (Paris: UNESCO, Cambridge University Press and London: 90 D. Bloom, E. Cafiero, E. Jané-Llopis, S. 2012, vol. 1), p. 3. UK Cabinet Office and HM Treasury, Abrahams-Gessel, L. Bloom, S. Fathima, 68 See NIC, Global Trends 2030: Alternative 2006), p. xi. A. Feigl, T. Gaziano, M. Mowafi, A. Pandya, Worlds (Washington DC: United States 78 IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report Summary K. Prettner, L. Rosenberg, B. Seligman, National Intelligence Council, November for Policymakers (Geneva: IPCC, A. Stein, and C. Weinstein, The Global 2012), p. 1, http://www.fas.org/irp/ September 2013), pp. 3, 7. Economic Burden of Noncommunicable nic/global_trends_2030.pdf; see also 79 Ibid., p. 6. Diseases (Geneva: World Economic Karen Ward, Zoe Knight, Nick Robins, Paul 80 See Climate Commission, Off the Charts: Forum, 2011), p. 5. Spedding and Charanjit Singh, “Energy Extreme Australian Summer Heat 91 Ibid. in 2050: Will Fuel Constraints Thwart (Canberra: Australian Climate Commission, 92 Abdesslam Boutayeb, “The Burden our Growth Projections?” HSBC Global 2013), http://climatecommission.gov. of Non-communicable Diseases in Research, Global Economics & Climate au/wp-content/uploads/CC_Jan_2013_ Developing Countries”, International Change Report (London: HSBC Bank, Heatwave4.pdf; and Bernice Lee, Felix Journal for Equity in Health, 4(2), (2005). March 2011), which suggests the figure Preston, Jaakko Kooroshy, Rob Bailey and Recent data from over 3,100 counties in is around 30 percent. Glada Lahn, Resource Futures: A Chatham the United States revealed “that counties 69 See IEA, Redrawing the Energy-Climate House Report (London: Royal Institute of where the poverty rate was over 35 Map: World Energy Outlook Special International Affairs, December 2012). p. percent had obesity rates 145 percent

69 Part A continued

higher than wealthy counties”. See James New Digital Age (London: John Murray, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Levine, “Poverty and Obesity in the 2013), p. 253. (May 2012), www.bls.gov/oes (accessed U.S.”, Diabetes, 60, (2011): 2667–8, p. 104 See UN, “Deputy UN Chief Calls for 20 September 2013). 2667. The burden of NCDs is increasingly Urgent Action to Tackle Global Sanitation 116 McKinsey Global Institute, The World at a problem in developing countries too, Crisis”, UN News Centre, (21 March Work: Jobs, Pay and Skills for 3.5 Billion see Robyn Norton, “Safe, Effective and 2013), http://www.un.org/apps/news/ People (San Francisco: McKinsey & Affordable Health Care for a Bulging story.asp?NewsID=44452&Cr=sanitation Company, 2012) p. 7. Population”, in Ian Goldin, Is the Planet &Cr1=#.UeUUsRYoKoV 117 BLS, “Employment and Wages for Newly Full? (Oxford: , 105 Bright Simons, “Africa’s True Mobile Defined Occupations, May 2012” United forthcoming 2014). Revolution Has Yet to Start”, Harvard States Bureau of Labor Statistics, (4 93 See, for example, Michael Marmot, Business Review, Blog Network, (4 April 2013), http://www.bls.gov/opub/ “Social Determinants of Health July 2012), http://blogs.hbr.org/ ted/2013/ted_20130404.htm Inequalities”, Lancet, 365, (2005): cs/2012/07/africas_true_mobile_ 118 See Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, “The 1099–104. For information on the revolution.html; ITU, Information Society Future of Employment: How Susceptible WHO’s commission and work on social Statistical Profiles Africa (Geneva: are Jobs to Computerisation?”, (2013, determinants of health, see WHO, “Social International Telecommunication Union, forthcoming), which suggests that up Determinants”, http://www.who.int/ 2009), pp. 1, 5. to 45 percent of total United States social_determinants/en/ 106 The Economist, “The Bank of SMS”, 24 employment could be vulnerable to 94 On income, see WHO, World Health April 2012, quoting a survey conducted substitution; and James Manyika, Michael Statistics, 2013 (Geneva: World Health by the Gates Foundation, the World Bank Chui, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Organization, 2013), p. 78. On education and Gallup. Peter Bisson and Alex Marrs, Disruptive and obesity, see Marion Devaux, Franco 107 ITU, “Key Statistical Highlights: ITU Data Technologies: Advances that Will Sassi, Jody Church, Michele Cecchini, Release”. International Telecommunication Transform Life, Business and the Global and Francesca Borgonovi, “Exploring Union, (June 2012), http://www.itu. Economy (McKinsey Global Institute, May the Relationship between Education int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/material/ 2013). and Obesity”, OECD Journal: Economic pdf/2011%20Statistical%20highlights_ 119 See Michael Spence, “The Impact of Studies, 5(1), (2011): 121–59, June_2012.pdf on Income and Employment: http://www.oecd.org/eco/growth/ 108 Tim Fernholz (2013). “Why Only 3% The Downside of Integrating Markets”, relationship%20education%20and%20 of India Has Home Internet Access”, Foreign Affairs, 90(4), (2011): 28–41, obesity.pdf Quartz (22 March 2013), http:// pp. 37–8; and McKinsey Global Institute, 95 WHO, Preventing Chronic Diseases: A qz.com/66146/why-only-3-of-india- The World at Work: Jobs, Pay and Skills Vital Investment (Geneva: World Health has-home-internet-access/ for 3.5 Billion People (San Francisco: Organization, 2005). 109 Ian Goldin and Kenneth Reinert, McKinsey & Company, 2012), p. 8, 10– 96 WHO, World Health Statistics, 2013 Globalization for Development: Meeting 12. (Geneva: World Health Organization, New Challenges (Oxford: Oxford 120 World Bank, World Development Report 2013), p.14. University Press, 2012), p. 278. 2013 – Jobs (Washington, DC: World 97 Ibid., The absolute gap between the 110 Cisco, “Visual Networking Index: Global Bank, 2013), pp. 17–19, 29–34, 126– world’s top and bottom countries was Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 127, and 312. 171 deaths for every 1,000 live births in 2012–2017”, White Paper, (2013), 121 See ILO, Global Employment Trends for 1990. By 2011 that figure had fallen to http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/ Women (Geneva: International Labour 107. Ibid., p. 37. collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ Organization, 2012), p. v. 98 See also John Tierney “Can Humanity ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf 122 Ibid., See also GS Strategy Group, Survive? Want to Bet on It?”, The New 111 Timothy Foxon, “Technological and Protecting Older Workers Against York Times, 30 January 2007; and Martin Institutional ‘Lock-In’ as a Barrier to Discrimination Act National Public Opinion Rees, Our Final Century: The 50/50 Sustainable Innovation”, Imperial College Report (Washington, DC: American Threat to Humanity’s Survival. Will the Centre for Policy and Technology Association of Retired Persons, June Human Race Survive the Twenty-First Working Paper (London: Imperial College, 2012). Century? (London: Arrow, 2003). November 2002). 123 World Bank, World Development Report 99 Burke Cunha, “Influenza: Historical 112 EEA, The European Environment – State 2013 – Jobs (Washington, DC: World Aspects of Epidemics and Pandemics”, and Outlook 2010: Assessment of Global Bank, 2013), pp. 5–6. Infectious Disease Clinic of North Megatrends (Copenhagen: European 124 John Hawksworth and Rachel Lund, America, 18 (2004): 141–55, pp. 141, Environmental Agency, 2011), p. 41. How Will the Wealth of the Baby Bust 154. 113 IDC, “ICT Outlook: Recovering into a New Generation Compare with that of 100 See Thomas Levenson, “A New Life for World”, International Data the ? (London: PWC, a Deadly Disease”, New Yorker, 25 April (March 2010). October 2011), http://www.pwc. 2013; and “The ongoing Problem of 114 See Michael Spence, “The Impact of co.uk/economic-services/publications/ Tuberculosis in the UK”, Lancet, 381, Globalization on Income and Employment: how-will-the-wealth-of-the-baby- (2013): 1431. The Downside of Integrating Markets”, bust-generation-compare-with-that-of- 101 “Science and Engineering Beyond Moore’s Foreign Affairs, 90(4), (2011): 28–41, p. the-baby-boomers.jhtml (accessed 22 Law”, (US National Science Foundation, 30. September 2013). 2012), http://www.nsf.gov/about/ 115 See Eric Linton, “Technology Rapidly 125 ILO, Global Employment Trends: budget/fy2012/pdf/41_fy2012.pdf Making Clerical Jobs Obsolete, Driving Recovering from a Second Job 102 See Jerome Glenn, Theodore Gordon Inequality, US Reports”, International Dip (Geneva: International Labour and Elizabeth Florescu, 2008 State of Business Times, (2 April 2013), http:// Organization, 2013), pp. 58–9. the Future, Millennium Development www.ibtimes.com/technology-rapidly- 126 UN-ECOSOC, “Rethinking Policies Toward Project (Washington DC: United Nations making-clerical-jobs-obsolete-driving- Youth Unemployment: What Have We University), p. 22. inequality-us-reports-1164631; BLS, Learned?”, Background Note, Economic 103 See Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The “Occupational Employment and Wages”, and Social Council, United Nations, (24

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May 2012), p. 5, http://www.un.org/en/ Atkinson, “On the Measurement of a Crossroads”, Nature Climate Change, ecosoc/newfunct/pdf/amr_background_ Inequality”, Journal of Economic Theory, 3 (25 November 2012): 11–12. One paper_24_may_2012.pdf. See also ILO, 2, (1970): 244–63. attempt to bridge the gap between these Global Employment Trends: Recovering 136 See Branko Milanovi´c, “Global Income silos is Ian Goldin (ed.), Is The Planet from a Second Job Dip (Geneva: Inequality by the Numbers: in History and Full? (Oxford: Oxford University Press, International Labour Organization, 2013), Now”, Policy Research Working Paper forthcoming 2014). pp. 45–6. 6259 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 147 The recommendations made by the 127 World Bank, World Development Report November 2012), pp. 5, 10. United Kingdom Commission on 2013 – Jobs (Washington, DC: World 137 Ibid., pp. 8–9. Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Bank, 2013), p. 6. 138 Ibid., pp. 12–13. Change should also be underlined here. 128 Anthony Atkinson, “Ensuring Social 139 See Anthony Atkinson, “Putting People See John Beddington and commissioners, Inclusion in Changing Labour and First and Macro-Economic Policy”, Achieving Food Security in the Face of Capital Markets”, European Economy unpublished (Oxford: Institute of New Climate Change: Final Report of the Economic Papers 481 (Brussels: European Economic Thinking at Oxford Martin Commission on Sustainable Agriculture Commission, April 2013), p. 12. School, University of Oxford, March and Climate Change (Copenhagen: CGIAR 129 See , The Price of Inequality 2013); and Anthony Atkinson, “Ensuring Research Program on Climate Change, (New York: W. W. Norton & Co, 2012). Social Inclusion in Changing Labour and Agriculture and Food Security, March 130 See “Joint Appeal to Address the Capital Markets”, European Economy 2012). The report includes specific Problem of Inequality in the Post-2015 Economic Papers 481 (Brussels: European regional examples of threats arising from Framework”, IDEAs, (March 2013), Commission, April 2013), p. 36. climate change, population growth and http://www.networkideas.org/news/ 140 See ILO, “Youth Guarantees: A Response unsustainable resource use (Ibid., p. 5). mar2013/pdf/Inequality_Letter.pdf; to the Youth Employment Crisis?” ILO 148 World Bank. “Climate-Smart Agriculture Branko Milanovi´c, Haves and the Have Employment Policy Brief (International and the World Bank: The Facts”, (2012), Nots (New York: Basic Books, 2010); Labour Organization, 4 April 2013). http://climatechange.worldbank.org/ and Branko Milanovi´c, “Global Inequality 141 The Royal Society, People and the Planet content/climatesmart-agriculture-and- Recalculated and Updated: The Effect (London: Royal Society, 2012), pp. 11– world-bank-facts of New PPP Estimates on Global 12, 62. 149 See Tara Garnett, et al., “Sustainable Inequality and 2005 Estimates”, Journal 142 See David Hughes, “A Reality Check Intensification in Agriculture: Premises and of Economic Inequality, 10(1), (2010): on the Shale Revolution”, Nature, 494, Policies”, Science 341(6141), (2013): 1–18. (2013): 307–8; Helmut Haberl, Tim 33–34; and Foresight, The Future of 131 See Credit Suisse, “Credit Suisse: Global Beringer, Sribas Bhattacharya, Karl-Heinz Food and Farming, Final Project Report Wealth is Expected to Increase 61% Erb and Monique Hoogwijk, “The Global (London: The Government Office for by 2015; Middle Segment of Wealth Technical Potential of Bioenergy in 2050 Science, 2011). Pyramid Holds One-Sixth of Global Considering Sustainability Constraints”, 150 It should be noted that from 1979 to Wealth, to Become Emerging Consumers Current Opinion in Environmental 2009, the proportion of total official and Drive Economic Growth”, Press Sustainability, 2(6), (2010): 394–403; development assistance from developed Release, (8 October 2010), https:// and , “Shale-Gas Boom to developing countries going to www.credit-suisse.com/news/en/ Alone Won’t Proposal U.S. Industry”, Wall agriculture dropped from 18 percent to media_release.jsp?ns=41610; and Street Journal, (18 March 2013). See 6 percent; government investment in Inequality.org, “World/ Global Inequality”, also Barack Obama, “State of the Union, agriculture fell by a third in Africa and http://inequality.org/global-inequality/ February 2013”, The White House, as much as two‑thirds in Asia and Latin (accessed 22 September 2013). See also http://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of- America over the same period. See IFAD, Anthony Atkinson and Salvatore Morelli, the-union-2013; Wang Shu, “China: Final “The Future of World Food and Nutrition “Economic Crises and Inequality”, Human Market Readiness Proposal” Speech to Security” (Rome: International Fund for Development Research Paper 2011/06 World Bank’s PMR Partnership Assembly, Agricultural Development, May 2012), (New York: UNDP, June 2011). Washington, DC (11–13 March 2013); http://www.ifad.org/pub/factsheet/ 132 Carmen DeNavas-Walt, Bernadette and Jeffrey Sachs, “An for food/foodsecurity_e.pdf Proctor and Jessica Smith, Income, Climate Change”, in McKinsey & Co, What 151 Garnett, et al., “Sustainable Intensification Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage Matters: 10 Questions that Will Shape in Agriculture: Premises and Policies”. in the United States: 2012, (Washington Our Future (McKinsey Publishing, 2009), 152 See Charles Godfray, John Beddington, DC: US Department of Commerce, p. 28. Ian Crute, Lawrence Haddad, David 2013). 143 See, for example, Alex Morales, “Sulzon’s Lawrence, James Muir, Jules Pretty, 133 See Branco Milanovi´c, “Global Income Tanti Predicts ‘Flat’ Wind Turbine Markets Sherman Robinson, Sandy Thomas and Inequality by the Numbers: in History and in 2013”, Bloomberg, (28 January 2013). Camilla Toulmin, “Food Security: The Now”, Policy Research Working Paper 144 See IMF, “Reforming Energy Subsidies”, Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People”, 6259 (Washington, DC: World Bank, IMF Policy Advice (27 March 2013), Science, 327(12), (2012): 812–8, pp. November 2012), pp. 17–18. http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/ 815–6. 134 Ibid. subsidies/index.htm; and Benedict 153 See Georgina Mace, Ken Norris and 135 ETUI, “Sir : Where is Clements et al., “Energy Subsidy Reform: Alastair Fitter, “Biodiversity and Inequality Headed?”, ETUI Conference Lessons and Implications”, International Ecosystem Services: A Multilayered Report, ETUI Conference Cycle: The Crisis Monetary Fund, (28 January 2013), Relationship”, Trends in Ecology and and Inequality (Brussels: European Trade http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/ Evolution, 27(1), (2012): 19–26; Union Institute, 25 January 2013), p. 4; eng/2013/012813.pdf R. de Groot, R. Alkemade, L. Braat, L. ETUI, “Tony Atkinson Paints a Complex 145 See Foresight, The Future of Food and Hein and L. Willemen, “Challenges in Picture of Inequality”, ETUI News (4 Farming, Final Project Report (London: Integrating the Concept of Ecosystem February2013), http://www.etui.org/ The Government Office for Science, Services and Values in Landscape News/Tony-Atkinson-paints-complex- 2011), p. 18. Planning, Management and Decision- picture-of-inequality ; and Anthony 146 See Pavel Kabat [interview], “Water at Making”, Ecological Complexity, 7(3),

71 Part A continued

(2010): 260–72; and Royal Society, (Paris: International Energy Association, Christian Helmers, “The Role of Patent “Communiqué of the InterAcademy 2013), pp. 19–20, 24, and 68. Protection in (Clean) Technology Panel Biodiversity Conference”, (13–14 167 Liu He, “Increasing the Proportion of Transfer”, Santa Clara Computer and High January 2010). Middle‑Income Earners and Expanding Technology Law Journal, 26, (2010): 154 For further information relating to the the Country’s Domestic Market: the Basic 487–532. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Logic Behind the 12th Five‑Year Plan”, p. 176 Lila Finney Rutten, Amy Yaroch, Heather Reports, see: http://www.unep.org/ 9. Patrick, and Mary Story, “Obesity maweb/en/index.aspx 168 See Jim Yong Kim, “China: A Vital Partner Prevention and National Food Security: 155 See the IUCN website, http://www. in Combating Climate Change”, China A Food Systems Approach”, ISRN Public iucnredlist.org/ Daily, (17 September 2013). Similarly, Health Volume, International Scholarly 156 See, for example, Craig Hanson, the Twelfth Indian Five Year Plan explicitly Work Network, (2012). Cornis Van Der Lugt and Suzanne calls for more attention on sustainability 177 See also the updated conclusions of Ozment, Nature in Performance: Initial issues to ensure India achieves its the Garnaut Review in Australia. Ross Recommendations for Integrating objective of reducing the emissions Garnaut, “Australia in the Global Response Ecosystem Services into Business intensity of its GDP by up to 25 percent to Climate Change. Summary”, (31 May Performance Systems, WRI Report by 2020. See Planning Commission 2011), http://www.garnautreview.org. (Washington, DC: World Resource of India, Faster, More Inclusive and au/update-2011/garnaut-review-2011/ Institute, 2011); and WRI, “Business and Sustainable Growth: India’s Twelfth Five summary-20June.pdf Ecosystems Leadership Group” World Year Plan, Volume I (December 2012). 178 See Kenneth Lieberthal and David Resource Institute Brochure, http:// 169 IEA, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map: Sandalow, Overcoming Obstacles to U.S.- pdf.wri.org/business_and_ecosystems_ World Energy Outlook Special Report China Cooperation on Climate Change leadership_group_brochure.pdf (Paris: International Energy Association, (Brookings Institute, 2009). 157 See UN-REDD, “Faqs” (2009), http:// 2013), p. 24. 179 See also Jennifer Burney, Charles Kennel, www.un-redd.org/FAQs/tabid/586/ 170 See White House, “President Obama’s and David Victor, “Getting Serious About Default.aspx; and Ecoagriculture. Plan to Fight Climate Change”, (25 the New Realities of Global Climate org, “Nairobi Declaration”, (1 October June 2013), http://www.whitehouse. Change”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2004), http://www.ecoagriculture.org/ gov/share/climate-action-plan; see 69(4), (2013): 49–57. page.php?id=71&=Nairobi%20 also Research Institute on 180 See Mark Roth, “U.S. Health Care Declaration Climate Change and the Environment, Costs for the Aged are Sky High”, 158 Yu Kosaka, and Shang-Ping Xie, “Recent “Statement by Nicholas Stern on Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, (13 Global Warming Hiatus Tied to Equatorial President Obama’s Speech on Climate December 2009); and Dan Munro, Pacific Surface Cooling”,Nature , 501, Change”, (25 June 2013), http://www. “2012 – The Year in Healthcare (2013): 403–7. lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/Media/ Charts”, Forbes, (30 December 159 William Anderegg, James Prallb, Releases/2013/MR250613-statement- 2012), http://www.forbes.com/sites/ Haroldc, and Stephen Schneidera, nicholas-stern-president-obama- danmunro/2012/12/30/2012-the- “Expert Credibility in Climate Change”, climate-change.aspx; and Gina McCarthy, year-in-healthcare-charts/ Proceedings of the National Academy of “Administrator Gina McCarthy Remarks 181 See, also B. Burns, J. Bell, N. Bosanquet Sciences of the United States of America, on Carbon Pollution Standards for New and T. Lonngren, “Healthcare in the 21st 107(27), (2010): 12107–9. Power Plants – As Prepared”, Speech at Century Will Be Different – Will We Seize 160 IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report the United States National Press Club (20 the Opportunity” (2013, forthcoming). (International Panel on Climate Change, September 2013), http://yosemite.epa. 182 Climate change could push over 20 forthcoming). See also IPCC, “Fifth gov/opa/admpress.nsf/8d49f7ad4bbcf4 million children into hunger by 2050, with Assessment Report (AR5)”, http://www. ef852573590040b7f6/348694303a6 potentially half of those in sub-Saharan ipcc.ch/report/ar5/#.Uj8JIPlwa1s 7e3c685257bec004bec8d!opendocume Africa. See World Food Programme, “10 161 Agence France-Presse, “Climate at 5 nt Things You Need to Know about Hunger Minutes to Midnight – IPCC Head”, 171 See also Jennifer Burney, Charles Kennel, in 2013”, (2 January 2013), http://www. Science & Nature (3 September 2013), and David Victor, “Getting Serious About wfp.org/stories/10-things-you-need- http://www.rappler.com/science- the New Realities of Global Climate know-about-hunger-2013 nature/37974-climate-change-ipcc- Change”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 183 The Royal Society, People and the Planet, pachauri 69(4), (2013): 49–57. (London: Royal Society, 2012), p. 7. 162 See, for example, EPA, “Climate Impacts 172 Benedict Clements et al., “Energy Subsidy 184 Kim Stanley Robinson, “Time to End on Global Issues”, United States Reform: Lessons and Implications”, the Multigenerational Ponzi Scheme”, Environmental Protection Agency, http:// International Monetary Fund, (28 January in McKinsey & Co, What Matters: 10 www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts- 2013), http://www.imf.org/external/np/ Questions that Will Shape Our Future adaptation/international.html (accessed pp/eng/2013/012813.pdf (McKinsey Publishing, 2009), p. 43. 22 September). 173 See, for example, the Extractive 185 See Richard Doll and A. Bradford Hill, “The 163 See Solomon Hsiang, Marshall Burke and Industries Transparency Initiative’s Mortality of Doctors in Relation to Their Edward Miguel, “Quantifying the Influence website, http://eiti.org; and the Natural Smoking Habits”, British Medical Journal, of Climate on Human Conflict”,Science , Resource Charter website, http:// 1(4877), (1954): 1451–5. 341(6151), (2013). naturalresourcecharter.org/ 186 For more information, see FCTC “UN 164 Tim Palmer, “A CERN for Climate Change”, 174 See Bloomberg Report, Renewable Treaty Event 2013 – An Opportunity Physics World, 24, (2011): 14–15. Reserves: Testing the Concept for the to Sign and Ratify the Protocol”, WHO 165 Royal Society, Geoengineering the U.S. and Brazil (Bloomberg New Energy Framework Convention on Tobacco Climate: Science, Governance and Finance for BP, 19 March 2013), Control, www.who.int/fctc/en/ (accessed Uncertainty (London: Royal Society, http://about.bnef.com/white-papers/ 22 September 2013). September, 2009). renewable-reserves-testing-the- UN, “Global Efforts to Promote Health 166 IEA, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map: concept-for-the-us-and-brazil/ Face Serious Challenges from ‘Big World Energy Outlook Special Report 175 See, for example, Bronwyn Hall and Business – UN Official’”,UN News Centre,

72 Part A continued

(10 June 2013), http://www.un.org/ who.int/dg/speeches/2013/health_ 203 See Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan, The apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45129&C promotion_20130610/en/ Butterfly Defect (Princeton: Princeton r=communicable&Cr1=disease&Kw1=hea 196 See also New York City Government, University Press, forthcoming 2014). lth&Kw2=&Kw3=#.Uj_vDPlwa1s Reversing the Epidemic: The New 204 See Tiffany Bogich, Rumi Chunara, David 187 World Bank, Regional Highlights – World York City Obesity Task Force Plan to Scales, Emily Chan, Laura Pinheiro, Development Indicators (Washington, Prevent and Control Obesity, (31 May Aleksei Chmura, Dennis Carroll, Peter DC: World Bank, 2012), p. 2, http://data. 2012), http://www.nyc.gov/html/om/ Daszak and John Brownstein, “Preventing worldbank.org/sites/default/files/wdi- pdf/2012/otf_report.pdf Pandemics via International Development: regional-highlights2012-web.pdf 197 See George Alleyne, Agnes Binagwaho, A Systems Approach”, PLOS Medicine, 188 WHO, “Noncommunicable Diseases Andy Haines, Selim Jahan, Rachel 9(12), (2012). (NCD)” Global Health Observatory, Nugent, Ariella Rojhani, David Stuckler, 205 See Thomas Levenson, “A New Life for a (2013), http://www.who.int/gho/ncd/ on behalf of The Lancet NCD Action Deadly Disease”, New Yorker, (25 April en/index.html Group, “Embedding Non-Communicable 2013). 189 WHO, “Tobacco”, Fact Sheet No. 339, Diseases in the Post-2015 Development 206 Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial (July 2013), http://www.who.int/ Agenda”, Lancet, 381: (2013): 566–74. State (London: Demos, 2011). mediacentre/factsheets/fs339/en/ They remark that “[s]ome drivers of 207 Stephen Duckett, “Time to Address See Academy of Royal Medical Colleges, unsustainable development, such as Sickening Waste by Cutting Pharmaceutical Measuring Up: The Medical Profession’s the transport, food and agriculture, and Prices”, Australian Financial Review, (18 Prescription for the Nation’s Obesity energy sectors, also increase the risk of March 2013), p. 47. Crisis (London: Academy of Royal Medical NCDs”. (Ibid., p. 566). 208 See also Mônica Rosina and Lea Shaver, Colleges, February 2013); and James 198 WHO, The Evolving Threat of “Why Are Generic Drugs Being Held Up Levine, “Poverty and Obesity in the U.S.”, Antimicrobial Resistance (Geneva: In Transit? Intellectual Property Rights, Diabetes, 60(11), (2011): 2667–8, p. World Health Organization, International Trade, and the Right to 2667. 2012), http://whqlibdoc.who.int/ Health in Brazil and Beyond”, Journal of 190 For further information see CDC, “Adult publications/2012/9789241503181_ Law, Medicine and Ethics, 40(2), (2012): Obesity Facts”, Centers for Disease eng.pdf 197–205; The Brazil Business, “The Control, www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/ 199 See Jerome Glenn, Theodore Gordon Brazilian Market for Generic Drugs”, (29 adult.html (accessed 23 September); and Elizabeth Florescu, 2008 State of February 2012), http://thebrazilbusiness. and Aff Finkelstein, Justine Trogdon, Joel the Future, Millennium Development com/article/the-brazilian-market- Cohen and William Dietz, “Annual Medical Project (Washington DC: United Nations for-generic-drugs; and IMS Institute Spending Attributable to Obesity”, Health University), p. 16. for Healthcare Informatics, The Global Affairs, 28(5), (2009): w822–w831. 200 Merrill Singer, Introduction to Syndemics: Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 191 Ian Anderson, The Economic Costs A Critical Systems Approach to Public and 2016 (Parsippany, NJ: IMS Institute for of Noncommunicable Diseases in the Community Health (John Wiley and Sons, Healthcare Informatics, July 2012). Pacific Islands, Final Report (World Bank, 2009). 209 See Donald McNeil, “Indonesia May Sell, November 2012). 201 World Health Organisation, International Not Give, Flu Virus to Scientists”, 192 Harvard School of Public Health, “Adult Health Regulations (2005) (Geneva: New York Times (7 February 2007); Obesity”, (2013), http://www.hsph. WHO Press, 2008, 2nd Editon), p. 1. and Kenan Mullis, “Playing Chicken with harvard.edu/obesity-prevention- 202 Jong-Wha Lee and Warwick McKibbin, Bird Flu: ‘Viral Sovereignty,’ the Right source/obesity-trends/obesity-rates- “Estimating the Global Economic Costs of to Exploit Natural Genetic Resources, worldwide/; see also WHO, “Obesity SARS”, in National Institute of Medicine and the Potential Human Rights and Overweight”, Fact Sheet No 331, (eds), Learning from SARS: Preparing for Ramifications”,American University (March 2013), http://www.who.int/ the Next Disease Outbreak: Workshop International Law Review, 24(5), (2009): mediacentre/factsheets/fs311/en/ Summary (Washington, DC: National 943–67, pp. 947–949. 193 See Michael Mudd, “How to Force Academies Press, 2004), http://www. 210 See the GAVI Alliance website, http:// Ethics on the Food Industry”, New ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92473/; www.gavialliance.org/; and President’s York Times, (16 March 2013); and Vanessa Rossi and John Walker, Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, “About and The Economist, “Nanny States Assessing the Economic Impact and Costs PEPFAR”, (2013), www.pepfar.gov/ Biggest Test: Should Governments of Flu Pandemics Originating in Asia about/index.htm Make their Citizen’s Exercise More (Oxford: Oxford Economic Forecasting 211 See WHO, WTO and WIPO, Promoting and Eat Less?”, (7 December 2012), Group, May 2005), http://www.l20. Access to Medical Technologies and http://www.economist.com/news/ org/publications/13_xZ_pandemic_. Innovation: Intersections between special-report/21568074-should- rossi.pdf. See also, ECDC, Pandemic public health, intellectual property governments-make-their-citizens- Influenza Preparedness Report in the EU/ and Trade (2012), http://www. exercise-more-and-eat-less-nanny- EEA: Status Report as at Autumn 2007, wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/ states Technical Report (: European pamtiwhowipowtoweb13_e.pdf. For the 194 See also Duff Wilson and Adam Kerlin, Centre for Disease Control, December text of the TRIPS agreement see WTO, “Special Report: Food, Beverage Industry 2007), http://ec.europa.eu/health/ “Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Pays for Seat at Health-Policy Table”, preparedness_response/docs/0712_ter_ Intellectual Property Rights”, http://www. , (19 October 2012), http:// pandemic_influenza_preparedness_in_eu_ wto.org/english/tratop_e/trips_e/t_ www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/19/ eea.pdf; The Economist, “Coming, Ready agm0_e.htm (accessed 23 September us-obesity-who-industry- or Not: Despite Progress, the World is Still 2013). idUSBRE89I0K620121019 Unprepared for a New Pandemic Disease”, 212 See, for example, The White House 195 Margaret Chan, “WHO Director-General (20 April 2013); and The Economist, “An “Fact Sheet: White House Task Force Addresses Health Promotion Conference”, Ounce of Prevention: As New Viruses on High-Tech Patent Issues”, (4 June Opening Address at the 8th Global Emerge in China and the Middle East, 2013), www.whitehouse.gov/the-press- Conference on Health Promotion, Helsinki, the World is Poorly Prepared for a Global office/2013/06/04/fact-sheet-white- Finland (10 June 2013), http://www. Pandemic”, (20 April 2013). house-task-force-high-tech-patent-

73 Part A continued

issues. See also Christopher Mims, “Why United States, 13 June 2013; Technet21. past-programme/2010-2019/2013/ Patent Trolls will Laugh in the Face of org “Gates Foundation Awards 1.7 Million international-trade-and-investment the US Government’s Weak Attempts to Inspire Supply Chain Innovation”, 233 Shawn Donnan, “World Trade to Fight Them”, Quartz, (4 June 2013), http://www.vaccinationcouncil.org/ Organisation’s Pascal Lamy Defends Doha www.qz.com/90902/why-patent- wp-content/uploads/2012/08/ Talks Round”, , (18 July trolls-will-laugh-in-the-face-of-the-us- Gates-Foundation-awards-1.7-million- 2013). governments-weak-attempts-to-fight- to-inspire-supply-chain-innovation-_- 234 See Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron and them Issue-1.pdf Meera Balarajan, Exceptional People: How 213 See Dyna Arhin-Tenkorang and Pedro 222 See The Economist, “Coming, Ready or Migration Shaped Our World and Will Conceição, “Beyond Communicable Not: Despite Progress, the World is Still Define Our Future (Princeton: Princeton Disease Control: Health in the Age of Unprepared for a New Pandemic Disease”, University Press, 2011), pp. 215–9. Globalisation” in Inge Kaul (ed.), Providing (20 April 2013). 235 See Chris Giles, “G20 Reform: Time Global Public Goods (Oxford: Oxford 223 See Henry Kissinger, “The Future of U.S.- to Take Action – or Risk Irrelevance”, University Press, 2003), p. 484. China Relations”, Foreign Affairs, (March/ Financial Times, (18 June 2012). 214 UN, A New Global Partnership: Eradicate April 2012): 44–55. 236 See Mike Callaghan, “Relaunching the Poverty and Transform Economies 224 , “The Twenty-First G20”, Analysis series, (G20 Studies Through Sustainable Development, Century Will Not Be a ‘Post-American’ Centre, Lowy Institute for Policy Report of the Secretary-General’s High- World.” International Studies Quarterly, Studies, January 2013), http://www. Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the 56(1), (2012): 215–7; and Joseph Nye lowyinstitute.org/files/callaghan_ Post-2015 Development Agenda (United “The Misleading of Decline”, relaunching_the_g20_web_0.pdf Nations, 30 May 2013). Wall Street Journal, (14 February 2011). 237 See Dick Nanto, Global Financial Crises: 215 See George Alleyne, Agnes Binagwaho, 225 See Robert Zoellick, “Whither China: From Analysis and Policy Implications (U.S. Andy Haines, Selim Jahan, Rachel Nugent, Membership to Responsibility?”, Remarks Congressional Research Service Paper, Ariella Rojhani, David Stuckler, on behalf to the National Committee on U.S.-China July 2009), p. 18, http://www.fas.org/ of The Lancet NCD Action Group, Relations, United States Department of sgp/crs/misc/RL34742.pdf (accessed “Embedding Non-Communicable Diseases State (25 November 2005); and Jonathan 24 September 2013). in the Post-2015 Development Agenda”, Pollack, “China’s Rise and U.S. Strategy in 238 See Jen Psaki, “Statement on Lancet, 381: (2013): 566–74. Asia”, Brookings Paper, (18 December Consensus Achieved by the UN Group 216 See, for example, “A Framework 2012). Compare Mlada Bukovansky et al., of Governmental Experts On Cyber Convention on Alcohol Control”, The Special Responsibilities: Global Problems and Issues”, Press Statement (Washington, Lancet, 370(9593), (2007): 2101–2 American Power (Cambridge: Cambridge DC: U.S. Department of State, 7 June and Allyn Taylor and Ibadat Dhillon, “An University Press, 2012). 2013), http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ International Legal Strategy for Alcohol 226 See Kishore Mahbubani, The Great ps/2013/06/210418.htm. See also, for Control: Not a Framework Convention Convergence: Asia, the West, and example, CCDCOE, The Tallinn Manual – At Least Not Yet”. Addiction, 108, the Logic of One World (New York: on the International Law Applicable to (2012): 450–62. PublicAffairs, 2013). Cyber Warfare (Tallinn, : NATO 217 See James Levine, “Poverty and Obesity 227 Norton, “Norton Cybercrime Report”, Co-operative Cyber Defence Centre of in the U.S.”, Diabetes, 60(11), (2011): (2011), http://uk.norton.com/ Excellence, March 2013); and UNODC, 2667–8, p. 2667. cybercrimereport Comprehensive Study on Cybercrime 218 UN, A New Global Partnership: Eradicate 228 Alison Smith, “Top UK Companies Lacking (New York: UN Office on Drugs and Poverty and Transform Economies Vigilance in Preventing Cyber ”, Crime, Draft February 2013). Through Sustainable Development, Financial Times, (1 July 2013). See 239 Ashley Deeks, “The Geography of Report of the Secretary-General’s High- also BIS, 10 Steps to Cyber Security Cyber Conflict: Through a Glass Darkly”, Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the (Department for Business Innovation and International Law Studies, 89(1), (2013). Post-2015 Development Agenda (United Skills, Centre for the Protection of National 240 Ian Hargreaves, Digital Opportunity: Nations, 30 May 2013). Infrastructure and UK Cabinet Office A Review of Intellectual Property and 219 The long-term systems approach 2012), https://www.gov.uk/government/ Growth, Independent Report (Newport: advocated in PLOS Medicine provides a uploads/system/uploads/attachment_ Intellectual Property Office, May 2011), three-pronged approach to do this. See data/file/73128/12-1120-10-steps-to- http://www.ipo.gov.uk/ipreview- Tiffany Bogich, Rumi Chunara, David cyber-security-executive.pdf finalreport.pdf Scales, Emily Chan, Laura Pinheiro, Aleksei 229 See Robert Zoellick, “Why We Still Need 241 Jason Nurse, Sadie Creese, Michael Chmura, Dennis Carroll, Peter Daszak and the World Bank”, Foreign Affairs, (March/ Goldsmith and Koen Lamberts John Brownstein, “Preventing Pandemics April 2012): 66–78. “Trustworthy and Effective Via International Development: A Systems 230 See Gary Hufbauer, Jeffrey Schott and Communication of Cybersecurity Risk: A Approach”, PLOS Medicine, 9(12), Woan Foong Wong, “Figuring Out the Review”, STAST, (2011), pp. 60–8. (2012). pp. 1–4. Doha Round”, in Brief, Policy Analysis in 242 See Daniel Kaufman, “10 Myths About 220 Frances Pearson, Celia McNeilly, International Economics 91 (Peterson Governance and Corruption”, Finance and Michael Crichton, Clare Primiero, Sally Institute for International Economics, Development, 42(3): 2005: 41–3 p. 41. Yukiko, Germain Fernando, Xianfeng 2010). 243 See Daniel Kaufman, “Governance and Chen, Sarah Gilbert, Adrian Hill and 231 See Jagdish Bhagwati, Termites in the the Transition: Reflections, Mark Kendall, “Dry-Coated Live Viral Trading System: How Preferential Systems Empirics and Implications for the Vector Vaccines Delivered by Nanopatch Undermine Free Trade, (Oxford: Oxford International Community”, Brookings Blum Microprojections Retain Long-Term University Press, 2008). Roundtable Policy Briefs (Washington, DC: Thermostability and Induce Transgene- 232 Consider “International Trade and Brookings Institute, 2011), p. 35. Specific T Cell Responses in Mice”.PLoS Investment Policy: Where Do We Go From 244 See Revenue Watch Institute, “Resource ONE 8(7), (2012). Here?”, Ditchley Conference Director’s Governance Index”, (2013), http://www. 221 See Association for Molecular Pathology Note, 2013/01, (17–19 January 2013), revenuewatch.org/rgi v Myriad Genetics, Supreme Court of the http://www.ditchley.co.uk/conferences/ 245 Ibid.

74 Part A continued Part B

246 World Bank, “Despite Global Slowdown, us-sustainbility-unilever-ceo- 1 See Geoff Mulgan, The Locust and African Economies Growing Strongly– New idUSBRE8A11FH20121102 the Bee: Predators and Creators in Oil, Gas, and Mineral Wealth an Opportunity 255 See Eric Beinhocker, and Tony Dolphin, Capitalism’s Future (Princeton: Princeton for Inclusive Development”, Press Release, “Fixing Finance: The Missing Piece in University Press, 2013). (4 October 2012), http://www.worldbank. Banking Reform”, Public Policy Research, 2 Andrew Cooper, “The G20 and its org/en/news/press-release/2012/10/04/ 19(3): 166–73. p. 172. Regional Critics”, Global Policy, 2(2), despite-global-slowdown-african- 256 See also Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron (2011): 203–9. economies-growing-strongly-world-bank- and Meera Balarajan, Exceptional People: 3 John Kirton, “What is the G20?” G20 urges-countries-spend-new-oil-gas- How Migration Shaped Our World Research Group, mineral-wealth-wisely and Will Define Our Future (Princeton: (30 November 1999), http://www.g20. 247 See Nadejda Komendantova and Anthony Princeton University Press, 2011), pp. utoronto.ca/g20whatisit.html Patt, “Could Corruption Pose a Barrier 265–80; Dovelyn Agunias and Kathleen 4 , “Global Governance After to the Roll-Out of Renewable Energy Newlands, “Circular Migration and the Financial Crisis: A New Multilateralism in North Africa?”, in Transparency Development: Trends, Policy Routes and or the Last Grasp of the Great Powers?” International, Global Corruption Ways Forward”, Policy Brief, (Washington, Global Policy, 1(1) (2010): 51–63, p. 52. Report: Climate Change (London: DC: Migration Policy Institute, April 5 The FSB replaced the Financial Stability Earthscan, 2011), pp. 187–93; and 2007), http://www.migrationpolicy. Forum by widening its membership and Nadejda Komendantova and Anthony org//migdevpb_041807.pdf; and expanding its mandate. The FSB’s agenda Patt, “Barriers to Renewable Energy Sheena McLoughlin and Rainer Münz, includes the establishment of supervisory Investment”, Options Magazine, “Conclusions and Recommendations” colleges for private institutions, (International Institute for Applied in “Temporary and Circular Migration: contingency planning for cross border Systems Analysis, Summer 2011), p. 22. Opportunities and Challenges”, Working crisis management, and overseeing the 248 See Melissa Thomas, “What Do the Paper 35 (European Policy Centre, March work of standard setting bodies to ensure Worldwide Governance Indicators 2011), pp. 65–76. their regulatory practices are coordinated. Measure?” European Journal of 257 See, for example, Cass Sunstein, Simpler: See Eric Helleiner, “What Role for the New Development Research, 22, (2010): The Future of Government (New York: Financial Stability Board?: The Politics of 31–54. Simon & Schuster, 2013); and Cass International Standards after the Crisis”, 249 See Trevor Manuel, Carlos Arruda, Sunstein, Laws of Fear (Cambridge: Global Policy, 1(3), (2010): 282–90; and Azour, Chong-en Bai, Timothy Besley, Cambridge University Press, 2005). Robert Lavigne and Subrata Sarker, “The Dong-Sung Cho, Sergei Guriev, Huguette 258 See Daniel Kaufman, Governance and G-20 Framework for Strong, Sustainable Labelle, Jean Pierre Landau, Arun Maira the Arab World Transition: Reflections, and Balanced Growth: Macroeconomic and Hendrik Wolff, Independent Panel Empirics and Implications for the Coordination Since the Crisis”, Bank of Review of the Doing Business Report International Community, Brookings Blum Canada Review, Winter 2012–2013, (2013), p. 50, http://www.dbrpanel. Roundtable Policy Briefs (Washington, DC: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp- org/sites/dbrpanel/files/doing-business- Brookings Institute, 2011), p. 41. content/uploads/2013/02/boc-review- review-panel-report.pdf (accessed 259 See Natural Resource Charter, “The winter-12-13-lavigne.pdf 24 September 2013). See also the Natural Resource Charter”, (2013), 6 Elizabeth Ferris, The Politics of Independent Panel website, http://www. http://naturalresourcecharter.org/ Protection: The Limits of Humanitarian dbrpanel.org 260 G20, “Finale Communique, G20 Meeting Action (Washington DC: The Brookings 250 G8. “Lough Erne Declaration,” Lough of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Institution, 2011). Erne Summit, Northern Ireland, (18 Governors”, , (19-20 July 7 UN, “2005 World Summit Outcome,” June 2013), http://www.g8.utoronto. 2013), http://www.g20.org/events_ General Assembly A/60/L.1, 15 ca/summit/2013lougherne/Lough_ financial_track/20130719/780961553. September (New York: United Erne_Declaration_130618.pdf; and html Nations), http://www.who.int/hiv/ G20, “OECD Presents its Action Plan 261 See The Group of Thirty, Long- universalaccess2010/worldsummit.pdf on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting,” term Finance and Economic Growth 8 Coalition for the International Criminal (19 July 2013), http://www.g20.org/ (Washington DC, Working Group on Court, “Cases and Situations” (last news/20130719/781655012.html Long Term Finance, The Group of Thirty, accessed 2 August 2013), http://www. 251 Dominic Barton, “Capitalism for the 2013), pp. 51–58. iccnow.org/?mod=casessituations Long Term”, Harvard Business Review, 262 See, for example, OECD, “Institutional 9 Anne-Marie Slaughter, A New World (March 2011), http://hbr.org/2011/03/ Investors and Long-Term Investment”, Order (Princeton: Princeton University capitalism-for-the-long-term/ar/1# (June 2013), http://www.oecd. Press, 2004), pp. 135-6. 252 World Bank, World Development Report org/insurance/private-pensions/ 10 Neil Fligstein, and Iona Mara-Drita, “How 2013 – Jobs (Washington, DC: World institutionalinvestorsandlong- to Make a Market: Reflections on the Bank, 2013), 2013, p. xiii. terminvestment.htm Attempt to Create a Single Market in the 253 See The Telegraph, “Bluefin Tuna Sells 263 See Robert Kaplan and David Norton, European Union,” American Journal of for Record £1 Million”, The Telegraph, (5 “Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Sociology, 102(1), (1996): 1–33, p. 3. January 2013), Strategic Management System”, Harvard 11 In its 7th Principle, the Accords http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ Business Review, (July-August 2007). enshrined “respect for human rights and worldnews/asia/japan/9782074/ 264 See Gillian Lees and Malone, fundamental freedoms, including freedom Bluefin-tuna-sells-for-record-1-million. Building World-Class Businesses for the of thought, conscience, religion or belief” html; and Charles Glover, “Bluefin Tuna – Long-Term: Challenges and Opportunities into relations between European states. Magnificent Fish too Valuable to Save”, (London: Chartered Institute of See Helsinki Declaration, “The Final The Telegraph, (27 November 2008). Management Accountants, 2011), Act of the Conference on Security and 254 Deborah Zabarenko, “Unilever Swaps http://www.cimaglobal.com/Documents/ Cooperation in Europe” (1 August 1975), Earnings Rat Race for Sustainability”, World_conference_2011/Reports/ http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/osce/ Reuters, (2 November 2012), http:// World_Conference_report.pdf basics/finact75.htm www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/02/ 12 Daniel Thomas, “The Helsinki Accords

75 Part B continued

and Political Change in Eastern Europe” Commission for 1985: Statement 33 Anne-Marie Slaughter, A New World in Thomas Risse-Kappen, Stephen Ropp by , President of the Order (Princeton: Princeton University and Kathryn Sikkink (eds.), The Power of Commission, to the Press, 2004), and Joel Podolny and Karen Human Rights: International Norms and and his Reply to the Ensuing Debate”, Page, “Networks Forms of Organization”, Domestic Change (Cambridge: Cambridge Bulletin of the European Communities Annual Review of Sociology, 24, (1998): University Press, 1999), pp. 205–208. suppl. 4/85 (: Office for 57–76, p. 81. 13 The Royal Society, Knowledge, Networks Official Publications of the European 34 Anne-Marie Slaughter, A New World and Nations (London: The Royal Society, Communities, 1985), p.11. Order (Princeton: Princeton University 28 March 2011). 22 Ruth Roemer, Allyn Taylor and Jean Press, 2004), p. 141. 14 EPA “Ozone Layer Protection – Regulatory LaRiviere, “Origins of the WHO 35 Yuen Khong, “The Elusiveness of Regional Programs” United States Environmental Framework Convention on Tobacco Order: Leifer, the English School and Protection Agency (accessed 5 August Control”, American Journal of Public Southeast Asia,” The Pacific Review, 2013), http://www.epa.gov/ozone/ Health, 95(6), (2005): 936–8. 18(1), (2005): 23–41, p. 28. title6/phaseout/22phaseout.html 23 See, for example, The Framework 36 Helen Nesadurai, “Finance Ministers and 15 Scott Barrett, Environment and Convention Alliance for Tobacco Control Central Bankers in East Asian Financial Statecraft: The Strategy of Environmental website, www.fctc.org Cooperation” in Ngaire Woods and Treaty-Making (Oxford: Oxford University 24 FCTC, “Global Progress in Implementation Leonardo Martinez-Diaz (eds.), Networks Press, 2003), p. 239. For more data of the WHO FCTC: Key Findings,” of Influence? Developing Countries in a on the Protocol’s impact on ozone Conference of the Parties to the WHO Networked Global Order (Oxford: Oxford depletion, see Guus Velders, Stephen Framework Convention on Tobacco University Press, 2009). Andersen, John Daniel, David Fahey and Control, Fifth Session, , Republic of 37 Kishore Mahbubani, The Great Mack McFarland “The Importance of the Korea (12–17 November, 2012), http:// Convergence: Asia, the West, and Montreal Protocol in Protecting Climate”, apps.who.int/gb/fctc/PDF/cop5/FCTC_ the Logic of One World (New York: Proceedings of the National Academy of COP5_5-en.pdf PublicAffairs, 2013), p. 43. Sciences of the United States of America, 25 Ibid., p. 17. 38 Yuen Khong and Helen Nesadurai, 104(12), (2007): 4814–9. 26 The G7, first convened in 1975, included “Hanging Together, Institutional Design, 16 The Royal Society, Knowledge, Networks France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, the and Cooperation in Southeast Asia: and Nations (London: The Royal Society, United States and the United Kingdom. AFTA and the ARF” in Amitav Acharya 28 March 2011). Russia joined the G7 nations in 1994 to and Alistair Johnstone (eds.), Crafting 17 See, also Richard Benedick, Ozone form the G8. Cooperation: Regional International Diplomacy: New Directions in 27 Nancy Alexander, “Introduction to the Institutions in Global Politics (New York: Safeguarding the Planet (Cambridge, G20”, The Heinrich Böll Foundation, Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 78. MA: , 1998); http://www.boell.org/web/group_of_20- 39 Ibid., p. 39. and Scott Barrett, Environment and 651.html (accessed 5 August 2013). 40 Jochen Prantl, “Voice for the Weak: Statecraft: The Strategy of Environmental Andrew Cooper has argued that China ECOSOC Ad Hoc Advisory Groups Treaty-Making (Oxford: Oxford University is not taking on a leadership role, as its on African Countries Emerging from Press, 2003). position as a rising and developing nation Conflict,” in Ngaire Woods and Leonardo 18 See Ian Rae, “Saving the Ozone Layer: has limited the amount of leadership Martinez-Diaz (eds.), Networks of Why the Montreal Protocol Worked”, activity that it is willing to take on. Influence? Developing Countries in a The Conversation (9 September 2012), See Andrew Cooper, “The G20 as an Networked Global Order (Oxford: Oxford http://theconversation.com/saving- Improvised Crisis Committee and/or University Press, 2009). the-ozone-layer-why-the-montreal- a Contested ‘Steering Committee’ for 41 Chun Wei Choo, “The World Health protocol-worked-9249 (accessed 5 the World”, International Affairs, 86(3), Organization Smallpox Eradication August 2013); UNEP, Montreal Protocol (2010): 741–57. Programme”, University of Toronto 20: A Success in the Making (Nairobi: 28 Lisa Evans, “G20 Meeting: Key Data (September 2007), http://choo.fis. United Nations Environment Programme, for Each Country”, (2 utoronto.ca/fis/courses/lis2102/ko.who. 2007); Jan Fedorowicz, The Montreal November 2011), http://www.guardian. case.html (accessed August 5 2013). Protocol: Partnerships Changing the World co.uk/news/datablog/2011/nov/02/ 42 Paul Edwards, A Vast Machine: Computer (Canada: UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO and g20--summit (accessed 5 August Models, Climate Data, and the Politics World Bank, 2005); and Anil Markandya 2013). of Global Warming (Cambridge: and Nick Dale, The Montreal Protocol 29 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony: Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Green Economy (United Nations Cooperation and Discord in the World Press, 2010), p. 399. Environment Programme, 2012). Political Economy (Princeton: Princeton 43 See for example, The GAVI Alliance’s 19 Neil Fligstein and Iona Mara-Drita, “How University Press, 1984; reprinted 2005), online “mission statement”, http://www. to Make a Market: Reflections on the p. 246. gavialliance.org/about/mission/what/ Attempt to Create a Single Market in the 30 See Joseph Nye, Soft Power (New (accessed 5 August 2013). European Union,” American Journal of York: PublicAffairs, 2004); and Michael 44 Devi Sridhar and Ngaire Woods “Trojan Sociology, 102(1), (1996): 1–33, p. 11. Barnett and Raymond Duvall, “Power Multilateralism: Global Cooperation in 20 Ibid., p. 12. Delors worked with Narjes’ in International Politics”, International Health”, GEG Working Paper 2013/72 successor, Lord Cockfield, to deliver the Organization, 59, (2005): 39–75. (Oxford: Global Economic Governance SMP and advertise its benefits through 31 Anne-Marie Slaughter, A New World Programme, University of Oxford, 2013), the “Europe 1992” framework. See also Order (Princeton: Princeton University p. 7. Craig Parsons, “Revisiting the Single Press, 2004), p. 8. 45 Ibid., pp. 6–7. European Act (and the Common 32 Ngaire Woods and Leonardo Martinez- 46 The GAVI Alliance, “Disbursement by on Globalization)”, Comparative Political Diaz (eds.), Networks of Influence? Country”, http://www.gavialliance.org/ Studies, 43(6), (2010): 706–34. Developing Countries in a Networked results/disbursements/ (accessed 5 21 Commission of the European Global Order (Oxford: Oxford University August 2013); and The Global Fund, Communities, “Programme of the Press, 2009). “One Million Lives are Saved Every

76 Part B continued Year”, http://onemillion.theglobalfund. of memory safety vulnerabilities. See 73 Frances Zelazny, “The Evolution of India’s org/pages/mission (accessed 5 August Microsoft, “BlueHat Prize”, http://www. UID Program: Lessons Learned and 2013). microsoft.com/security/bluehatprize/ the Implications for Other Developing 47 UNAIDS, “‘Three Ones’ Key Principles”, (accessed August 30 2013). Countries”, CGD Policy Paper 008 UNAIDS Conference Paper 1, Washington 63 Nesta, Challenge Prizes Landscape Review (Washington, DC: Centre for Global Consultation (25 April 2004), http:// (London: Nesta, Centre for Challenge Research, 2012). www.unaids.org/en/media/unaids/ Prize, April 2012), p. 2, http://www. 74 Amol Sharma, “India Launches Project contentassets/dataimport/una-docs/ nesta.org.uk/library/documents/CPL_ to ID 1.2 Billion People”, Street three-ones_keyprinciples_en.pdf Webv5.pdf (accessed August 30 2013). Journal, (29 September 2010), http:// 48 UNAIDS, UNAIDS World AIDS Day Report 64 Ibid., p. 2. online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052 (Geneva: UNAIDS, 2012), p. 2. 65 Transparency International, “Corruption 74870465210457549349095180932 49 Ibid., p.12 Perceptions Index 2012”, http://cpi. 2.html (accessed 5 August 2013). 50 Michele Acuto, “Are Mayors the New transparency.org/cpi2012/results/ (5 75 UIDAI, “Unique Identification Authority Diplomats?”, Diplomatic Courier, 31 May September 2013). of India”, https://portal.uidai.gov.in/ (May/June 2012). 66 See Mo Ibrahim Foundation “The Ibrahim uidwebportal/dashboard.do (accessed 5 51 Howard White, “Millennium Development Index of African Governance”, http:// August 2013). Goals” in David Clark (ed.), The Elgar www.moibrahimfoundation.org/iiag/ 76 See Amartya Sen and Jean Drèze, Companion to Development Studies (accessed 30 August 2013). An Uncertain Glory: India and its (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2006), pp. 67 Ibid. Contradictions (London: Allen Lane, 382–9, p. 382. 68 Klaus Schwab (ed.), The Global 2013). 52 High-Level Panel, “The Post-2015 Competitiveness Report 2012–2013 77 Alexei Barrionuevo, “Argentina Approves Development Agenda,” United Nations, (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2012). Gay Marriage, in a First for Region”, New http://www.post2015hlp.org/about/ 69 Jelle Bosch, The European Union and the York Times (16 July 2010). (accessed 16 September 2013). Republic of Korea: A Statistical Portrait 78 B. M. U. Berlin, “Renewable Energy 53 See, for example, the United Nations (: Publications Office of the Sources Act of 25 October 2008 (Federal Sustainable Development Platform, European Union for Eurostat and Statistics Law Gazette I p. 2074) as last amended “Post-2015 process”, http:// Korea, 2012), p.11. by the Act of 11 August 2010 (Federal sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ 70 Lee Byeong-cheon (ed.), Developmental Law Gazette I p. 1170)” (Germany: index.php?menu=1561 (accessed16 Dictatorship and the Park Chung-Hee Federal Ministry for the Environment September 2013) Era (Paramus, NJ: Homa & Sekey Books, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, 54 Mo Ibrahim Foundation, “The Ibrahim Prize 2003), p. 24. 25 October 2008). for Achievement in African Leadership”, 71 Anthony Hall, “Brazil’s Bolsa Família: A 79 Germany Trade & Invest, “Germany’s http://www.moibrahimfoundation.org/ Double-Edged Sword?”, Development Wind Energy Industry” (2013), p 1. ibrahim-prize/ (accessed 30 August and Change, 39(5), (2008): 799–822, Thirty-eight percent of this renewable 2013). p. 809; and Fabio Soares, Sergei Soares, energy was produced by wind power, and 55 Ibid. Marcelo Medeiros, and Rafael Guerreiro 16 percent from solar. This increase in 56 Nesta, Challenge Prizes Landscape Review Osório, “Cash Transfer Programmes in renewable energy led to a 26.5 percent (London: Nesta, Centre for Challenge Brazil: Impacts on Inequality and Poverty”, reduction in carbon emissions in 2011, Prize, April 2012), p. 2, http://www. IPC Working Paper 21 (Brazil: UNDP/ as compared to 1990 levels. See Louise nesta.org.uk/library/documents/CPL_ International Poverty Centre, 2006), p. Osborne, “German Renewable Energy Webv5.pdf (accessed August 30 2013). 20. For additional evidence that Bolsa Drive Brings Emissions Cuts Success”, The 57 The Google Lunar XPrize will reward a Família has contributed to poverty Guardian (26 November 2012), http:// private company that lands safely on the reduction, see Tracy Fenwick, “Avoiding www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/ moon by December 31 2015. See Google Governors: The Success of Bolsa Familia”, nov/26/german-renewable-energy- Lunar XPrize, “Prize Details”, http:// Latin American Research Review, 44(1) emission-co2 (accessed 5 August 2013). www.googlelunarxprize.org/prize-details (2009): 102–31, p. 116. 80 Wilson Rickerson, Florian Bennhold and (accessed 30 August 2013). 72 Sudhanshu Handa and Benjamin Davis, James Bradbury, “If the Shoe FITs: Using 58 Nesta, Challenge Prizes Landscape Review “The Experience of Conditional Cash Feed-in Tariffs to Meet US Renewable (London: Nesta, Centre for Challenge Transfers in Latin America and the Electricity Targets”, The Electricity Prize, April 2012), p. 3, http://www. Caribbean”, Development Policy Review, Journal, 20(4), (2007): 73–86, p. 75. nesta.org.uk/library/documents/CPL_ 24(5), (2006): 513–36, p. 527. See 81 Thomas Hale, David Held and Kevin Webv5.pdf (accessed August 30 2013). also Anthony Hall, “Brazil’s Bolsa Família: Young, Gridlock: Why Global Cooperation 59 Ibid., p. 6. A Double-Edged Sword?”. Evaluations is Failing When we Need it Most 60 The Shell Springboard awards look for of the education scheme Bolsa Escola (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2013). the United Kingdom’s next big ideas have found that the programme boosted 82 Philip Whish-Wilson, “The Aral Sea in low carbon enterprise. See Shell student enrollment by 5.5 percent Environmental Health Crisis”, Journal of Springboard, “The Awards”, http://www. in grades 1–4 and by 6.5 percent in Rural and Remote Environmental Health, shellspringboard.com/programme/awards grades 5–8. Given that only a third of 1(2), (2002): 29–34, p. 29. (accessed 30 August 2013). children participate in the Bolsa Escola 83 Ibid., p. 30. 61 The Virgin Earth Challenge will reward programme, the impact of the initiative 84 Philip Micklin and Mikolay Aladin, whoever finds an environmentally on participants is likely about three “Reclaiming the Aral Sea”, Scientific sustainable and economically viable way times higher than these figures suggest. American (16 March 2008). to remove greenhouse gases from the See Paul Glewwe and Ana Kassouf, 85 Ibid. atmosphere. See Virgin Earth Challenge, “The Impact of the Bolsa Escola/Familia 86 The true economic impact is estimated “The Prize”, http://www.virginearth.com/ Conditional Cash Transfer Program to be much higher, with some analysis the-prize/ (accessed 30 August 2013). on Enrollment, Drop Out Rates and suggesting it could be around USD$240 62 The Microsoft BlueHat Prize asks Grade Promotion in Brazil”, Journal of billion per year. See PEW, “Marine contestants to design security defence Development Economics, 97(2), (2012): Fisheries and the World Economy”, technology to prevent the exploitation 505–17. Ocean Science Series Research Summary

77 Part B continued

(Washington DC: PEW Environment The Conversation, (2 August 2013), talks that any binding agreement limiting Group, September 2010). http://theconversation.com/california- greenhouse gas emissions would have to 87 National Geographic, “Overfishing: Plenty calling-australia-isnt-alone-on-carbon- treat rich countries and major emerging of Fish in the Sea? Not Always”, http:// action-16612 (8 August 2013). economies, including China, differently. ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/ 97 IMF, The Global Financial Stability Report: See John Broder, “At Climate Talks, A critical-issues-overfishing/ (accessed 8 The Quest for Lasting Stability, April Familiar Standoff Between US and China”, August 2013). 2012 (Washington, DC: International New York Times (8 December 2011). 88 About 35 million people are directly Monetary Fund, 2012). 113 Eugene Wittkopf, Charles Kegley and employed in the fishing industry, 98 Ian Goldin and Tiffany Vogel, “Global James Scott, American Foreign Policy: meaning that, with the inclusion of their Governance and Systemic Risk in the Pattern and Process (Belmont: Thomson dependents, about 120 million people 21st Century: Lessons from the Financial Wadworth, 2003), p. 360. rely on fishing for their livelihood, and that Crisis”, Global Policy, 1(1), (2010): 6–12. 114 Avaaz, “Urgent: Hope Transfusion Needed about 500 million people are indirectly 99 See Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan, The for Rio+20” (25 May 2012) http:// dependent on the fishing industry for Butterfly Defect (Princeton: Princeton en.avaaz.org/531/rioplus20-sustainable- employment through other aspects of University Press, forthcoming 2014). development (accessed 4 July 2013). the industry, such as packaging, freezing, 100 See, for example, Naomi Oreskes and Erik 115 UN, “Growth in United Nations and transport. See Ed Pilkington, “Saving Conway, Merchants of Doubt: How a membership, 1945-present”, http:// Global Fish Stocks Would Cost 20 Million Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth www.un.org/en/members/growth.shtml Jobs, Says UN”, The Guardian, (17 May on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global (accessed July 4 2013). 2010), http://www.guardian.co.uk/ Warming (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 116 Global Policy Forum, “NGOs in environment/2010/may/17/saving-fish- 2010). Consultative Status with ECOSOC by stocks-cost-jobs (accessed August 8 101 Rob Moodie et al., “Profits and Pandemics: Category (1948-2010)”, http://www. 2013). Prevention of Harmful Effects of Tobacco, globalpolicy.org/images/pdfs/NGOs_in_ 89 Boris Worm, “Impacts of Biodiversity Loss Alcohol, and Ultra-Processed Food and Consultative_Status_with_ECOSOC_by_ on Ocean Ecosystem Services”, Science, Drink Industries”, The Lancet, 381, Category.pdf (accessed 4 July 2013). 314(5800), (2006): 787–90; and FAO, (2013): 673–4. 117 WEF, “Short-Term Thinking is Not “Review of the State of World Marine 102 David Stuckler, Sanjay Basu and Martin Leadership, Says Italian Prime Minister Fishery Resources”, FAO Fisheries and McKnee, “Commentary: UN High Level Monti”, News Release (World Economic Aquaculture Technical Paper 569 (Rome: Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases Forum, 23 January 2013), http://www. Food and Agriculture Organization of the – An Opportunity for Whom?”, British weforum.org/news/short-term-thinking- United Nations). Medical Journal, 343, (2011), p. 2. not-leadership-says-italian-prime- 90 CBD, “New Vision Required to Stave off 103 BBC, “Climate Change Scientists Losing minister-monti (accessed July 12 2013). Dramatic Biodiversity Loss, Says UN ‘PR War’”, BBC News, (11 February 118 The Economist, “Why is it So Hard to Report” Press Release, Convention on 2010), http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/ Form a Government in Italy?” (24 April Biological Diversity (Montreal: UNEP, /8511780.stm (accessed 29 2013), http://www.economist.com/ 10 May 2010), www.cbd.int/doc/ August 2013). blogs/economist-explains/2013/04/ press/2010/pr-2010-05-10-gbo3-en. 104 Quentin Grafton and Ross Lambie, economist-explains-8 (accessed 12 July pdf (accessed 8 August 2013). “Australian Coal and Climate Change 2013). 91 Mary Robinson, “Was Rio+20 a Mitigation”, Harvard Asia Pacific Review 119 Pascal Lamy, “Farewell Statement to Failure of Political Leadership?”, CNN (Spring 2010), p. 40. the General Council”, World Trade (26 June 2012), http://edition.cnn. 105 Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why Organization, 24 July (2013), http:// com/2012/06/26/world/americas/ Most Predictions Fail but Some Don’t www.wto.org/english/news_e/ rio20-mary-robinson-failure (accessed 8 (New York: Penguin, 2012), pp. 20–21. news13_e/gc_rpt_24jul13_e.htm August 2013). 106 Ibid., p. 22. 120 Twenty-two European Union countries 92 Bryan Walsh, “What the Failure of Rio+20 107 Bree Nordenson, “Overload!”, Columbia have changed governments since 2008; Means for the Climate”, Time (26 June Journalism Review (30 November 2008) the exceptions are Germany, Austria, 2012), http://www.time.com/time/ http://www.cjr.org/feature/overload_1. Estonia, Luxembourg, Sweden, and health/article/0,8599,2118058,00.html php?page=all (accessed 30 August Poland. See Bernd Riegert, “Debt Crisis (accessed August 8 2013). 2013). Lays Waste to European Governments”, 93 Radoslav Dimitrov, “Inside UN Climate 108 On the latter issue of fishing, we Deutsche Welle, (27 April 2012), http:// Change Negotiations: The Copenhagen welcome the work of the Global Oceans www.dw.de/debt-crisis-lays-waste-to- Conference”, Review of Policy Research, Commission. european-governments/a-15915310 27(6), (2010): 795–821, p.796. 109 British Academy, “New President Lord (accessed 8 August 2013). 94 Ibid., p. 810. Stern Says UK and World are at a Historic 121 See, for example, Stefan 95 Vesela Todorova, “ Attacks World Point of Change”, Press Release (18 July Wurster, “Comparing Ecological Community Over Copenhagen Climate 2013), http://www.britac.ac.uk/news/ Sustainability in Autocracies and Failure”, The National (19 January 2010), news.cfm/newsid/956 (accessed 8 Democracies”, Contemporary Politics, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae- August 2013). 19(1), (2013): pp. 76–93; Arend news/environment/maldives-attacks- 110 Ian Goldin, Divided Nations: Why Global Lijphart, Patterns of Democracy: world-community-over-copenhagen- Governance is Failing, and What We Can Government Forms and Performance climate-failure (accessed 8 August Do About It, (Oxford: Oxford University in Thirty-Six Countries (New Haven 2013). Press, 2013), p. 2. and London: Press, 96 See Ross Garnaut, “Global Emissions 111 Kishore Mahbubani, The Great 2012), pp. 10–21, 31–47, 295– Trends”, Garnaut Climate Change Convergence: Asia, the West, and 7; Hugh Ward, “Liberal Democracy and Review Update Paper 3 (Canberra: the Logic of One World (New York: Sustainability”, Environmental Politics, Commonwealth of Australia, 2011); PublicAffairs, 2013), p.7. 17(3) (2008): 386–409; Quan Li and Tony Wood, “California Calling: 112 Consider China’s insistence in the run- and Rafael Reuveny “Democracy and Australia Isn’t Alone on Climate Action”, up to the 2011 Durban climate change Environmental Degradation”, International

78 Part B continued

Studies Quarterly, 50(4), (2006): Manage Risks”, Press Release of the Workshop, (2012), http://www. 935–956; Michèle Bättig and Thomas Department for Business Innovation and treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/ Bernauer, “National Institutions and Skills, (23 October 2012), http://news. Speeches/2012/A-decade-of-IGR Global Public Goods: Are Democracies bis.gov.uk/Press-Releases/Foresight- (accessed 20 September 2013). More Cooperative in Climate Change report-on-computer-trading-shows- 138 See also Mario Biggeri, Jérôme Ballet Policy?”, International Organization, benefits-to-financial-markets-but- and Flavio Comim (eds), Children and 63(2), (2009): 281–308; and David calls-for-joint-action-to-manage-risks- the Capability Approach (Basingstoke, Held and Angus Hervey, “Democracy, 6820a.aspx (accessed 12 August 2013). Palgrave Macmillan, 2011). Climate Change and Global Governance: 132 Gillian Lees and Roger Malone, Building 139 In particular note Anthony King and Ivor Democratic Agency and the Policy Menu World-Class Businesses for the Long- Crewe, The Blunders of our Governments Ahead” in David Held, Marika Theros Term: Challenges and Opportunities (London: Oneworld, 2013), chapter 14. and Angus Fane-Hervey (eds), The (London: Chartered Institute of 140 Maja Göpel and Catherine Pearce, Governance of Climate Change: Science, Management Accountants, 2011), p. ii. Guarding our Future: How to Include Politics and Ethics (Cambridge: Polity, 133 World Bank, “The Inspection Panel”, Future Generations in Policy Making 2011). http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ (Hamburg: World Future Council, 2013). 122 Zhang Hong, “Xi Reassures Liberals with EXTINSPECTIONPANEL/Resources/ 141 UN, “Intergenerational Solidarity and the Reform Call”, South China Morning Post EnglishBrochure.pdf (accessed 12 August Needs of Future Generations”, Report of (25 July 2013). 2013). the Secretary-General A68/x (5 August 123 Simon Rabinovitch, “China Bans 134 See, for example, Advisory Opinion on 2013), http://sustainabledevelopment. Construction of Government Buildings the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons un.org/content/documents/2006future. for Five Years”, Financial Times (24 (International Court of Justice, 8 July pdf July 2013) http://www.ft.com/ 1996); Minors Oposa v Secretary of the 142 Parliament of Finland, “Committee for cms/s/0/352ea1a6-f40d-11e2-942f- Department of Environment and Natural the Future”, http://web.eduskunta.fi/ 00144feabdc0.html#axzz2bO1k2G40 Resources (Philippines Supreme Court, 30 Resource.phx/parliament/committees/ (accessed 8 August 2013). July 1993); and Massachusetts et al. v future.htx (accessed 19 August 2013). 124 Tania Branigan, “Xi Jinping Vows to Fight Environmental Protection Agency (United 143 Geoff Mulgan, Good and Bad Power: ‘Tigers’ and ‘Flies’ in Anti-Corruption States Supreme Court, 2 April 2007). The Ideals and Betrayals of Government Drive”, The Guardian (22 January 135 See Nicholas Stern, “Presidential Address: (London: Penguin, 2006). 2013), http://www.theguardian.com/ Imperfections in the Economics of Public 144 Francois Hollande “Intervention world/2013/jan/22/xi-jinping-tigers- Policy, Imperfections in Markets, and du President de la Republique Lors flies-corruption (accessed 1 August Climate Change”, Journal of the European du Seminaire Gouvernemental de 2013). Economic Association, 8(2/3), (2010): Rentree”, Speech (19 August 2013), 125 Adam Nagourney and Jeff Zeleny, 253–88; Simon Dietz and Nicholas Stern, http://www.elysee.fr/declarations/ “Obama Formally Enters Presidential “Why Economic Analysis Supports Strong article/intervention-du-president- Race”, New York Times, (11 February Action on Climate Change: A Response de-la-republique-lors-du-seminaire- 2007). to the Stern Review’s Critics”, Review gouvernemental-de-rentree/ (accessed 126 National Archives, “Statement of Senator of Environmental Economics and Policy, 30 August 2013). John F. Kennedy Announcing Candidacy 2(1), (2008): 94–113; Mark Harrison, 145 The Economist, “Tales of the Unexpected: for President of the United States January “Valuing the Future: The Social Discount The Glories and Agonies of India’s Central 2, 1960, 01/02/1960”, The United Rate in Cost-Benefit Analysis”,Visiting Planners”, (18 February 2012). States National Archives and Records Research Paper (Canberra: Australian 146 These reports assess the long-term Administration, http://research.archives. Government, Productivity Commission, sustainability of current policies over gov/description/193166 (accessed 25 April 2010); and Kenneth Arrow, Maureen a declared time period, and are issued July 2013). Cropper, Christian Gollier, Ben Groom, regularly in a number of countries, 127 Michael Barone, “Polls are Part of the Geoffrey Heal, Richard Newell, William including Australia, the United States, the Air Politicians Breathe”, The Public Nordhaus, Robert Pindyck, William Pizer, United Kingdom, Denmark, Canada and Perspective (April /May 1997). Paul Portney, Thomas Sterner, Richard New Zealand, and by the OECD and the 128 Andrew Haldane and Richard Davis, “The Tol and Martin Weitzman, “How Should European Economic Policy Committee. Short Long”, speech to the 29th Société Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an For a survey of existing practices, see Pal Universitaire Européene de Recherches Intergenerational Context?” Department Ulla, “Assessing Fiscal Risks through Long Financières Colloquium, Brussels, (May of Economics Working Paper 56–2013 Term Budget Projections”, OECD Journal 2011), http://www.bankofengland. (Brighton: University of Sussex, 2013). on Budgeting, 6(1), (2006): 126–87, pp. co.uk/publications/Documents/ 136 On ministerial turnover, consider Anthony 179–81. speeches/2011/speech495.pdf King and , The Blunders of our 147 See, for example, The Sovereign Wealth (accessed 8 August 2013). Governments (Oneworld, 2013), chapter Fund Institute’s website, http://www. 129 Jerry Adler, “Raging Bulls: How Wall 22. swfinstitute.org/ At least twenty SWFs Street Got Addicted to Light-Speed 137 See, also Dennis Thompson, “Representing have been created since 2005. The Trading”, Wired (3 August 2012), http:// Future Generations: Political Presentism explicit goals of such funds often include www.wired.com/business/2012/08/ and Democratic Trusteeship”, Critical diversification, sustainability and increased ff_wallstreet_trading/all/ (accessed 20 Review of International Social and Political savings for future generations. It has September 2013). Philosophy, 13(1), (2010): 17–37, p. been argued elsewhere that SWFs can be 130 Colin Mayer, Firm Commitment: Why 32; Brian Groombridge, “Parliament and utilised “as legal instruments to promote the Corporation is Failing Us and How the Future: Learning from Finland”, The the interests of future generations” and, to Restore Trust in It (Oxford: Oxford Political Quarterly, 77(2), (2006): 273– in doing so, put “into action the principle University Press, 2013), pp. 207–8. 80, p. 274; David Gruen and Duncan of ”. See Gordon 131 See BIS, “Foresight Report on Computer Spencer, “A Decade of Intergenerational Clark and Eric Knight “Temptation and Trading Shows Benefits to Financial Reports: Contributing to Long-Term Fiscal the Virtues of Long Term Commitment: Markets But Calls for Joint Action to Sustainability”, Speech to Intergen+10 The Governance of Sovereign Wealth

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Fund Investment”, Asian Journal of of Democracy, 6(1), (2010): 107–36, 174 Ayodele Jegede, “What Led to the International Law, 1(2): 321–48, p. 321, p.117. Nigerian Boycott of the Polio Vaccination 148 See also Ulla, “Assessing Fiscal Risks 160 YEN, Joining Forces with Young People: A Campaign?”, PLOS Medicine, 4(3), through Long Term Budget Projections”. Practical Guide to Collaboration for Youth (2007): 417–22. 149 The US Office of Management and Employment (Geneva: Youth Employment 175 Donald McNeil, “Getting Polio Campaigns Budget, for example, has moved to a Network, 2008), p.10. Back on Track”, New York Times (25 ten year window for actual policy costs 161 Ibid., pp. 11–12. December 2012). instead of five, and social security is 162 See the One Young World website, www. 176 Madison Park, “’s Vaccine Ban required to be costed separately over oneyoung world.com (accessed 15 May Affect 280,000 Children”, CNN, a 75 year horizon. The South African August 2013). (18 July 2012) http://edition.cnn. Treasury has recently prepared a long- 163 Robert Friedenberg (ed.), Rhetorical com/2012/07/17/world/asia/pakistan- term fiscal report, which considers the Studies of National Political Debates: taliban-polio-vaccine/index.html cost of current policies over the long- 1960–1992 (Westport: Praeger, 1994), (accessed 13 September 2013). term against the backdrop of economic p. 8. 177 Telephone interview with Sam McLean, and demographic trends. This move 164 Matthew Flinders, Defending Politics: National Director of GetUp!, 22 March is related to the second category of Why Democracy Matters in the Twenty- 2013. intergenerational reporting. First Century (Oxford: Oxford University 178 Robert Butler, “The Man Behind Avaaz”, 150 See the Foresight Programme website, Press, 2012). Intelligent Life (May/June 2013). www.foresight.gov.uk (accessed 19 165 Ibid. 179 GetUp! Action for Australia, “Faq”, www. August 2013). 166 See Julian Glover, “Europeans are Liberal, getup.org.au/about/faq (accessed 15 151 The Economist, “The Party’s (Largely) Anxious, and Don’t Trust Politicians, August 2013). Over”, (21 October 2010). Poll Reveals”, The Guardian, (13 March 180 WAN-IFRA, “World Press Trends: 152 2011 population figures are from a press 2011), http://www.guardian.co.uk/ Increasing Audience Engagement is release of the United Kingdom Office world/2011/mar/13/guardian-icm- Future for News Media”, Press Release, for National Statistics, “2011 Census, europe-poll-2011 (accessed 15 August World Association of Newspapers Population and Household Estimates 2013). and News Publishers (2 June 2013) for the United Kingdom” (17 December 167 Alison Park, Elizabeth Clery, John Curtice, http://www.wan-ifra.org/press- 2012), http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ Miranda Phillips, and David Utting (eds.), releases/2013/06/02/world- census/2011-census/population-and- British Social Attitudes: The 29th Report, press-trends-increasing-audience- household-estimates-for-the-united- (London: NatCen Social Research, 2012), engagement-is-future-for-news-media kingdom/index.html (accessed 12 August pp. 47–8. (accessed 12 August 2013). 2013); 1951 population figures are from 168 See Elizabeth Mendes and Joy Wilke, 181 Lucy Mair, “Inside an Industry: Stop the Office of National Statistics, “Population”, “Americans’ Confidence in Congress Falls Press”, The Gateway, 48(1), (1 February Social Trends, 41 (2011), p. 3. to Lowest on Record”, GALLUP Politics 2012). 153 The Economist, “The Party’s (Largely) (13 June 2013) http://www.gallup.com/ 182 See James Myburgh, “SA’s Daily Over”, (21 October 2010). poll/163052/americans-confidence- Newspapers in Decline”, Politics Web, (28 154 Paul Whiteley, “Is the Party Over? congress-falls-lowest-record.aspx October 2011), http://www.politicsweb. The Decline of Party Activism and (accessed 15 August 2013). co.za/politicsweb/view/politicsweb/en/ Membership Across the Democratic 169 European Commission, Future of Europe, page71656?oid=263880&sn=Detail&p World”, Party Politics, 17(1), (2011): Special Eurobarometer, 379 (2012), p. id=71656 (accessed 15 August 2013). 21–44, p. 26. 25, http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/ 183 WAN-IFRA, “World Press Trends: 155 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Union archives/ebs/ebs_379_en.pdf (accessed Increasing Audience Engagement is Future Members Summary” (United States 20 September 2013). for News Media”. Department of Labor, 23 January 2013), 170 Ruth Fox, “What’s Trust Got to Do With 184 PEW, “The State of the News Media http://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2. It? Public Trust in and Expectations 2013: An Annual Report on American nr0.htm (accessed 12 August 2013). of Politicians and Parliament”, Briefing Journalism”, The Pew Research Center’s 156 Alison Park, Miranda Phillips and Mark Paper (Hansard Society, Political Studies Project for Excellence in Journalism, Johnson, Young People in Britain: The Association and Centre for Citizenship, http://stateofthemedia.org/2013/ Attitudes and Experiences of 12 to Globalization and Governance, 2010), p. digital-as-mobile-grows-rapidly-the- 19 Year Olds, Research Report 564 5. pressures-on-news-intensify/ (accessed (Annesley, Nottingham: National Centre 171 William Mishler and Richard Rose, “What 15 August 2013). for Social Research, 2004), p. 30. are the Political Consequences of Trust? A 185 The Guardian, “Lionel Barber’s Email to FT 157 Edward Phelps, “Young Adults and Test of Cultural and Institutional Theories Staff Outlining Digital-First Strategy”, (21 Electoral Turnout in Britain: Towards in Russia”, Comparative Political Studies, January 2013), http://www.guardian. a Generational Model of Political 38(9), (2005): 1050–78, p. 1050. co.uk/media/2013/jan/21/lionel- Participation”, SEI Working Paper 92 172 Robert Putnam, “Bowling Alone: America’s barber-email-financial-times (accessed (Brighton, Sussex European Institute, Declining Social Capital”, Journal of 15 August 2013). 2006), p. 8. Democracy, 6(1), (1995): 65–78, p. 67. 186 Paul Starr, “Goodbye to the Age of 158 Jonathan Soble, “Japanese Politicians 173 Public Health England, “National MMR Newspapers: (Hello to a New Era of Struggle with Online Pitch”, The Vaccination Catch-up Programme Corruption)” in Thomas Hale (ed.), The Financial Times (19 July 2013), http:// Announced in Response to Increase Newspaper Crisis (Princeton: Princeton www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6214bcb6- in Measles Cases”, Press Release (25 University, 2009). f05f-11e2-929c-00144feabdc0. April 2013), https://www.gov.uk/ 187 WEF, “Global Agenda Council on the html#axzz2ZV2cTIoG (accessed 12 government/news/national-mmr- Role of the Arts in Society 2013”, World August 2013). vaccination-catch-up-programme- Economic Forum, http://www.weforum. 159 Michael Bratton, Yun-han Chu and announced-in-response-to-increase-in- org/content/global-agenda-council- Marta Lagos “Who Votes? Implications measles-cases (accessed 13 September role-arts-society-2013 (accessed 20 for New Democracies”, Taiwan Journal 13). September 2013).

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188 Clay Shirky, “The Political Power of Social 28 March 2011). Dialogical Analysis”, Review of General Media: Technology, the Public Sphere, and 202 See Maria Popova, “How Ignorance Psychology, 11(1): 1–36, p. 34.; and Political Change”, Foreign Affairs, 90(1), Fuels Science and the Evolution of Henrietta Moore, “Global Anxieties: (2011): 28–41. Knowledge”, Brain Pickings (2 April Concept- and Pre‑Theoretical 189 See Malcolm Gladwell, “Small Change: 2013), http://www.brainpickings.org/ Commitments in Anthropology”, Why the Revolution Will Not Be index.php/2012/04/02/stuart-firestein- Anthropological Theory, 4(1), (2004); Tweeted”, The New Yorker (4 October ignorance-science/ (accessed 15 August 71–88, pp. 71–2. 2010), http://www.newyorker.com/ 2013). 216 See, for example, , The reporting/2010/10/04/101004fa_fact_ 203 Stuart Firestein, Ignorance: How it Drives End of History and the Last Man (London: gladwell (accessed 16 July 2013). Science (New York: Oxford University , 1992) and also Daniel 190 Evgeny Morozov, To Save Everything, Press, 2012), p.11. Bell, The End of Ideology (Cambridge: Click Here: Technology, Solutionism, and 204 Robert Doubleday, and James Wilsdon Harvard University Press, 1988, first the Urge to Fix Problems That Don’t Exist (eds), Future Directions for Scientific published 1960). (London: Penguin, 2013), p.42. Advice in Whitehall (University of 217 See Dan Kahan and Donald Braman, 191 See the Ushahidi website, www.ushahidi. Cambridge’s Centre for Science and “Cultural Cognition and Public Policy”, Yale com (accessed 15 August 2013). Policy, University of Sussex, Alliance Law and Policy Review, 24(1), (2006): 192 Patrick Barkham, “Juliana Rotich”, The for Useful Evidence, Institute for 149–72, pp. 151, 158–9. Guardian (8 March 2011), http://www. Government, and Sciencewise, April 218 Ibid., p. 164. See also Dan Kahan, Hank theguardian.com/technology/2011/ 2013). Jenkins-Smith and Donald Braman, mar/08/juliana-rotich-100-women 205 EEA, Late Lessons from Early Warnings: “Cultural Cognition of Scientific (accessed 15 August 2013). Science, Precaution, Innovation, EEA Consensus”, Journal of Risk Research, 14, 193 See the BantuWatch website, www. Report 1 (Copenhagen: European (2011): 14–74. bantuwatch.org (accessed 15 August Environmental Agency, 2013), p. 6. 219 See Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous 2013). 206 Andrew Stirling, “Why the Precautionary Mind: Why Good People are Divided by 194 The Dragonfly Effect, “How Obama Principle Matters”, The Guardian, (8 July Politics and Religion (New York: Vintage, Won with Social Media” http://www. 2013), http://www.guardian.co.uk/ 2012); and Ian Birrell, “The Righteous dragonflyeffect.com/blog/dragonfly- science/political-science/2013/jul/08/ Mind by Jonathan Haidt – Review”, The in-action/case-studies/the-obama- precautionary-principle-science-policy Guardian, (22 April 2012), http://www. campaign/ (accessed 15 August 2013). (accessed 15 August 2013). theguardian.com/books/2012/apr/22/ 195 Beth Gardiner, “Charting the Impact of 207 Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate righteous-mind-jonathan-haidt-review Everyday Across the World”, Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge: (accessed 15 August 2013). In a quite International Herald Tribune (1 June Cambridge University Press and London: different arena, consider Scott Atran’s 2013). UK Cabinet Office and HM Treasury, impressions of how historical combatants 196 Krista Mahr, “The Top 10 Everything of 2006), p. 153. negotiate with each other. Scott Atran, 2009: Top Ten Heroes – Neda Agha- 208 Judith Curry, “The 97% ‘Consensus’”, “Talking to the Enemy: An Alternative Soltan”, TIME (8 December 2009), Climate Etc (26 July 2013), http:// Approach to Ending Intractable Conflicts”, http://www.time.com/time/specials/ judithcurry.com/2013/07/26/the-97- Solutions, 3(1), (2012): 41–51. packages/artic consensus/ (accessed 15 August 2013). 220 See, for example, , le/0,28804,1945379_1944701_19 209 Ibid. “Let’s Shake Up the Social Sciences”, The 44705,00.html (accessed 15 August 210 See Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and New York Times, (21 July 2013). See 2013). Slow (London: Allen Lane, 2011), p. 9. also Henrietta Moore, “Global Anxieties: 197 Ian Goldin, Divided Nations: Why Global 211 Pascal Lamy, “Global Governance”, Concept-Metaphors and Pre‑Theoretical Governance is Failing, and What We Can Speech, World Policy Conference, Cannes, Commitments in Anthropology”, Do About It, (Oxford: Oxford University (8 December 2012), http://www. Anthropological Theory, 4(1), (2004); Press, 2013). futureworldfoundation.org/Content/ 71–88, pp. 85–6. 198 Google Crisis Response, “When a Disaster Article.aspx?ArticleID=5544 (accessed 221 Toon van Meijl, “Culture and Identity Strikes, the Google Crisis Response Team 21 September 2013). in Anthropology: Reflections on ‘Unity’ Assesses the Severity and Scope of the 212 See, for example, Arvind Subramanian and and ‘Uncertainty’ in the Dialogical Self”, Disaster, and the Relevance of our Tools Martin Kessler “The Hyperglobalisation International Journal for Dialogical for the Situation to Determine Whether of Trade and Its Future”, Working Paper 3 Science, 3(1), (2008): 165–90, pp. and How to Respond”, http://www. (Geneva: Global Citizen Foundation, June 172–3, citing Kathryn Woodward (ed.), google.org/crisisresponse/response.html 2013), pp. 4–8. Identity and Difference (London: Sage/ (accessed 19 August 2013). 213 Toon van Meijl, “Culture and Identity Open Press,1997). 199 Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New in Anthropology: Reflections on ‘Unity’ 222 See, also Herbert Hermans and Giancarlo Digital Age (London: John Murray, 2013), and ‘Uncertainty’ in the Dialogical Self”, Dimaggio, “Self, Identity, and Globalization p.121. International Journal for Dialogical in Times of Uncertainty: A Dialogical 200 Owen Gaffney, Ninad Bondre, Sybil Science, vol. 3(1), 2008: 165–90, Analysis”, Review of General Psychology, Seitzinger, Mark Stafford Smith, Frank p. 184. See also p. 166, citing Arjun 11(1): 1–36, p. 34. Biermann, Rik Leemans, John Ingram, Appadurai, Globalization (Durham: Duke 223 Ibid., pp. 34, 37–9. Janos Bogardi, Anne Larigauderie, Gisbert University Press, 2001). 224 See, for example, Alexander Wendt, Glaser, Sandra Diaz, Sari Kovats, Wendy 214 Toon van Meijl, “Culture and Identity Social Theory of International Politics Broadgate, João Morais and Will Steffen, in Anthropology: Reflections on ‘Unity’ (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, “Interconnected Risks and Solutions for and ‘Uncertainty’ in the Dialogical Self”, 1999); Bruno Latour, “On Agent-Network a Planet Under Pressure”, Rio+20 Policy International Journal for Dialogical Theory: A Few Clarifications Plus More Brief 5 (The International Geosphere- Science, 3(1), (2008): 165–90, p. 168. Than a Few Complications”, Soziale Biosphere Programme, 2012). 215 See Herbert Hermans and Giancarlo Welt, 47, (1996): 1-14; , 201 The Royal Society, Knowledge, Networks Dimaggio, “Self, Identity, and “Cultural Theory and Risk Analysis” in and Nations (London: The Royal Society, Globalization in Times of Uncertainty: A Sheldon Krimsky and Dominic Golding

81 Part B continued Part C

(eds.), Social Theories of Risk (Westport: Parliament”, (19 June 2012), http:// 1 On “inclusive minilateralism”, see Robyn Praeger, 1992), pp. 83–115; Jonathan www.france24.com/en/20120619- Eckersley, “Moving Forward in the Gross and Steve Rayner, Measuring france-parliament-women-closer- Climate Negotiations: Multilateralism or Culture: A Paradigm for the Analysis of reflect-french-society-ethnic-minorities Minilateralism”, Global Environmental Social Organization (New York: Columbia (accessed 15 August 2013). Politics, 12(2), (2012): 24–42. University Press, 1985); G. J. David and T. 238 Paul Hackett and Paul Hunter, “Who 2 ICCT, Meeting the Climate Challenge: R. McKeldin, Ideas as Weapons: Influence Governs Britain?: A Profile of MPs in the Recommendations of the International and Perception in Modern Warfare New Parliament”, The Smith Institute Climate Change Taskforce (London: (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, (2010), pp. 6–7, http://www.smith- The Institute for Public Policy Research, 2009); and Judith Goldstein and Robert institute.org.uk/file/Who-Governs- January 2005), p. 8. Keohane, Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Britain.pdf (accessed 21 September 3 The United States, for example, has an Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca: 2013). Early Warning Alert Network (EWAN), Cornell University Press, 1993). 239 Policy Exchange, “The Decline of Working funded by stakeholders and the 225 See Henrietta Moore, “Global Anxieties: Class MPs”, (26 March 2012), http:// Department of Security. Concept-Metaphors and Pre‑Theoretical www.policyexchange.org.uk/modevents/ 4 This draws on recommendations outlined Commitments in Anthropology”, item/the-decline-of-working-class-mps in Ross Anderson, Rainer Böehme, Richard Anthropological Theory, 4(1), (2004): (accessed 15 August 2013). Clayton and Tyler Moore, Security 71–88, p. 74. 240 Rosemary Foot and Andrew Walter, China, Economics and the Internal Market 226 Ibid., pp. 74, 85. the United States, and Global Order (European Network and Information 227 See Dan Kahan, “Cultural Cognition as (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Security Agency, 2007). a Conception of the Cultural Theory 2010), p. 89. 5 Tobias Feakin, “Collaborating for a of Risk”, in Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Stronger Region – Cybersecurity Hillerbrand, Per Sandin and Martin Capacity Building with the ARF” http:// Peterson (eds), Handbook of Risk Theory www.aspistrategist.org.au/collaborating- Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics for-a-stronger-region-cyber-security- and Social Implications of Risk (London: capacity-building-within-the-arf/ Springer, 2012): 725–60. (Accessed 19 September 2013). 228 See Henrietta Moore, A Passion for 6 See WHO, “Sixty-Sixth World Health Difference: Essays in Anthropology and Assembly: Daily Notes on Proceedings”, Gender (Cambridge: Polity Press, 1994). Press Release (World Health Organization, 229 See Dan Kahan, “Cultural Cognition as 27 May 2013) http://www.who.int/ a Conception of the Cultural Theory of mediacentre/events/2013/wha66/ Risk”. See also the work of David Gellner journal/en/ (accessed August 20 on democracy in Nepal, and Mark Nichter 2013); and WHO, “United Nations to on the reinterpretation of government Establish WHO-led Interagency Task messages in (amongst Force on the Prevention and Control others). of Noncommunicable Diseases” (22 230 See Dan Kahan and Donald Braman, July 2013), http://www.who.int/ “Cultural Cognition and Public Policy”,Yale mediacentre/news/notes/2013/ncds_ Law and Policy Review, 24(1), (2006): ecosoc_20130722/en/ (accessed 26 149–72, p. 168. September 2013). 231 See The Wall Street Journal, “Uncommon 7 Guy Peters and John Pierre, “Governance Women” (10 March 2012), http://online. without Government? Rethinking wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970 Public Administration”, Journal of Public 204781804577271610840898958. Administration Research and Theory, html (accessed 15 August 2013). 8(2), (1998): 29–62. 232 Kristin Lewis, The Gender Dividend: A 8 See Infrastructure Australia, “About Business Case for Gender Equality (New Infrastructure Australia”, http://www. York: UN Women, 2011), p. 3. infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/about/ 233 Ricardo Hausmann, Laura Tyson and (accessed 23 August 2013). Saadia Zahidi, The Global Gender Gap 9 See the Urban Redevelopment Authority Report (Geneva: World Economic Forum, website, http://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/ 2012), p. 29. 10 See Tennessee Valley Authority, “From 234 IPU, “Women in National Parliaments”, the New Deal to a New Century”, http:// Inter-Parliamentary Union, http://www. www.tva.com/abouttva/history.htm ipu.org/wmn-e/world.htm (accessed 15 (accessed 23 August 2013). August 2013). 11 NICE, “What We Do”, National Institute 235 Ruth Sealy and Susan Vinnicombe, The for Health and Care Excellence, http:// Female FTSE Board Report 2013: False www.nice.org.uk/aboutnice/about_nice. Dawn of Progress for Women on Boards? jsp (accessed 23 August 2013). (Cranfield: Cranfield University School of 12 OBR, “What We Do”, Office for Management, 2013), p. 6. Budget Responsibility, http:// 236 See BBC, “First Black FTSE 100 Boss at budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/ Pru”, BBC News, (20 March 2009) http:// about-the-obr/what-we-do/ (accessed news..co.uk/1/hi/business/7954550. 13 August 2013). stm (accessed 15 August 2013). 13 Chris Skelcher, “Fishing in Muddy : 237 See France 24, “Record Number of Principals, Agents and Democratic Women and Minorities in New French Governance in Europe”, Journal of Public

82 Part C continued Administration Research and Theory, Why GDP Doesn’t Add Up (New York: The 884432~theSitePK:5929282,00.html 20(1) (2010): 161–75. New Press, 2010). (accessed 23 August 2013). 14 See also Christopher Adolph, Bankers, 26 See World Bank, World Development 36 Isabel Ortiz, Gaspar Fajth, Jennifer Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics Report 2013 – Jobs (Washington, DC: Yablonski and Amjad Rabi, “Social (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, World Bank, 2013), pp. 34–5. Protection: Accelerating the MDGs with 2013). 27 See OECD, Action Plan on Base Erosion Equity”, in Isabel Ortiz, Louise Moreira 15 Timothy Besley, Miguel Coelho and John and Profit Shifting (Organization Daniels and Sólrún Engilbertsdóttir Van Reenen, “Investing for Prosperity: for Economic Co-operation and (eds), Child Poverty and Inequality: New Skills, Infrastructure and Innovation”, Development, 13 June 2013), pp. Perspectives (New York: UNICEF, Division National Institute Economic Review, 24–5, http://www.oecd.org/ctp/ of Policy and Practice, 2012). 224(1), (2013). BEPSActionPlan.pdf 37 Ibid. 16 Philippe Aghion, Tim Besley, John Browne, 28 The Group of Thirty, Long-term Finance 38 UNICEF, Child Poverty: A Role for Cash Francesco Caselli, Richard Lambert, and Economic Growth, (Washington DC, Transfers? West and Central Africa, Rachel Lomax, Chris Pissarides, Nick Working Group on Long Term Finance, Regional Thematic Group 3 Study (Dakar: Stern and John Van Reenen, Investing The Group of Thirty, 2013). UNICEF Regional Office for West and for Prosperity: Skills, Infrastructure, 29 John Kay, The Kay Review of UK Equity Central Africa, February 2009). and Innovation, Report of the LSE Markets and Long-Term Decision Making: 39 Isabel Ortiz, Gaspar Fajth, Jennifer Growth Commission (London: Centre for Final Report (Department for Business Yablonski and Amjad Rabi, “Social Economic Performance, 2013). Innovation and Skills 2012). See also Protection: Accelerating the MDGs with 17 Ian Goldin, Divided Nations: Why Global Colin Mayer, Firm Commitment: Why Equity”, in Isabel Ortiz, Louise Moreira Governance is Failing, and What We Can the Corporation is Failing Us and How Daniels and Solrun Engilbertsdottir Do About It, (Oxford: Oxford University to Restore Trust in It (Oxford: Oxford (eds), Child Poverty and Inequality: New Press, 2013). p. 70 University Press, 2013). Perspectives (New York: UNICEF, Division 18 Ibid., p. 70. 30 The McKinsey Global Institute put the of Policy and Practice, 2012). 19 United Kingdom Cabinet Office, “OGP annual global price tag of energy, water, 40 ILO, “The Youth Employment Crisis: A call UK 2013 Draft National Action Plan: agriculture and fisheries subsidies at for Action”, Resolution and Conclusions From Open Data to Open Government”, over a trillion United States dollars; see of the 101st Session of the International (June 2013), https://www.gov.uk/ Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, Labour Conference (Geneva: International government/consultations/open- Fraser Thompson, Marcel Brinkman Labour Office, 2012, First Edition). government-partnership-uk-draft- and Marc Zornes, Resource Revolution: 41 See ILO, “Youth Guarantees: A Response national-action-plan-2013/ogp-uk- Meeting the World’s Energy, Materials, to the Youth Employment Crisis?” ILO 2013-draft-national-action-plan- Food, and Water Needs (McKinsey Employment Policy Brief (International from-open-data-to-open-government Global Institute, November 2011). See Labour Organization, 4 April 2013). (accessed 24 September 2013). also ICTSD, “Tackling Perverse Subsidies 42 Finnish Ministry of Employment and the 20 Harlan Yu and David Robinson, “The New in Agriculture, Fisheries and Energy”, Economy Working Group on the Youth Ambiguity of ‘Open Government’”, UCLA Information Note (Geneva: International Guarantee, Youth Guarantee 2013 Law Review Discourse, 178, (2012): Centre for Trade and Sustainable (13 March 2012), http://www.tem. 180–208. Development, June 2012). fi/files/33973/English_version.pdf 21 Deliberative techniques allow for a more 31 IEA, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map: (accessed 26 September 2013). meaningful deliberation in order to distill World Energy Outlook Special Report 43 See for example the Youth Empowerment a more authentic public opinion that, in (Paris: International Energy Association, Programme of Kenya in ILO, Studies on turn, influences government policy. 2013), p. 68. Growth with Equity – Kenya (Geneva: 22 Open Government Partnership, “About”, 32 The World Bank, “An ‘Evergreen’ International Institute for Labour Studies, http://www.opengovpartnership.org/ Revolution Cuts Fertilizer Costs for 2013, forthcoming). about (accessed 24 September 2013). Africa’s Farms”, The World Bank, (18 44 Pascal Lamy, “Global Governance”, 23 Nancy Birdsall, Christian Meyer and March 2013), http://www.worldbank. Speech, World Policy Conference, Cannes, Alexis Sowa, “Global Markets, Global org/en/news/feature/2013/03/18/ (8 December 2012), http://www. Citizens, and Global Governance in the an-evergreen-revolution-cuts-fertilizer- futureworldfoundation.org/Content/ 21st Century”, Working Paper 329 costs-for-africa-s-farms (accessed 23 Article.aspx?ArticleID=5544 (accessed (Washington, DC: Centre for Global August 2013). 21 September 2013). Development, 2013). 33 Nelipher Moyo and Vera Songwe, 45 Sean Cleary, “New Foundations for the 24 WEF, “Global Agenda Council on “Removal of Fuel Subsidies in Nigeria: World Economy and Global Governance”, Institutional Governance Systems An Economic Necessity and a Political Background Paper (Bertelsmann Stiftung’s 2013”, World Economic Forum, (2013), Dilemma”, Brookings Institution, (10 Trilogue , 2011), p. 15, https:// http://www.weforum.org/content/ January 2012), http://www.brookings. www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/bst/en/ global-agenda-council-institutional- edu/research/opinions/2012/01/10- media/xcms_bst_dms_34545_34546_2. governance-systems-2013 (accessed 9 fuel-subsidies-nigeria-songwe (accessed pdf September 2013). 23 August 2013). 46 See The Initiative website, 25 The Commission was chaired by Joseph 34 “Thailand to Cut Rice Subsidy Price”, http://www.earthcharterinaction.org/ Stiglitz with Amartya Sen as Chair Advisor Financial Times, (18 June 2013), http:// content/ (accessed 6 September 2013). and Jean-Paul Fitoussi as Coordinator. www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b4b6418e- 47 InterAction Council, “A Universal The Commission sought to examine d817-11e2-9495-00144feab7de. Declaration of Human Responsibilities”, different measurements of economic html#axzz2b6MgOPeQ (accessed 23 Proposed by the InterAction Council and social progress beyond GDP. See August 2013). (1 September 1997), http:// the Commission website, http://www. 35 The World Bank, “The Real Costs of Fossil interactioncouncil.org/universal- stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/en/index.htm Fuel Subsidies”, (9 May 2012), http:// declaration-human-responsibilities (accessed August 23 2013). See also web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/ (accessed 6 September 2013). Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen and Jean TOPICS/EXTSDNET/0,,contentMDK:23 Paul Fitoussi, Mismeasuring Our Lives: 184215~pagePK:64885161~piPK:64

83 Acknowledgements

Over the past year, the Oxford The Commission would like to thank the The Commission would especially like to thank Martin Commission for Future following organisations that facilitated or the academic community of the Oxford Martin Generations has benefited from the hosted workshops and events as part of our School and others at the University of Oxford insights, inspiration and ideas of knowledge-gathering process: for their expert advice and stimulating insights, many organisations and individuals particularly on the megatrends and challenges around the world. - New workshop, coordinated by our covered in Part A of the Report. Special thanks Commissioner Nandan Nilekani, are extended to Professor Sir John Beddington January 2013 FRS, who recently joined the School as a Senior - World Economic Forum workshop with Young Adviser, for his comprehensive and thoughtful Global Shapers and Young Global Leaders, comments. Within the Oxford Martin School, Davos, , January 2013 particular thanks are due to Dapo Akande, - London workshop with business, Professor Sir Tony Atkinson, Professor David government and academic leaders, hosted Banister, Eric Beinhocker, Dr Ian Brown, Professor by the Royal Society, January 2013 Simon Caney, Professor , Professor - China Development Forum, , Sadie Creese, Dr John Frater, Professor Sandra March 2013 Fredman, Professor Charles Godfray, Professor - Global Scholars Symposium, held at the Jim Hall, Professor Bleddyn Jones, Dr Malcolm University of Cambridge, April 2013 McCulloch, Professor Angela McLean, Professor - Center for Global Development, Steve Rayner, Professor Adam Swift, Professor Washington DC, May 2013 Tony Venables and Professor Kathy Willis. Also - United Nations Department of Economic and in Oxford, we are grateful to Professor Sir John Social Affairs, New York, May 2013 Bell, Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn-Smith and - Brussels workshop, co-convened with Lord Robert May for their frank and encouraging the European Forum on Forward Looking feedback, as well as Professor Marcus Banks and Activities of the European Commission, Professor David Gellner. The Commission would May 2013. also like to thank Professor Andrew Hamilton, the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Oxford, as well as the Management Committee and Advisory Council of the Oxford Martin School for their support of this initiative.

84 Helpful meetings were held with the World The Commission would also like to thank the Bank, the IMF, the Brookings Institution, the following research assistants who provided Center for Global Development, the Carnegie invaluable background research: Anna Endowment for International Peace, the World Alekseyeva, Dr Evelyn Chan, , Economic Forum, the OECD, the UK Cabinet Sebabatso Manoeli, Sara Nawaz, Saad, Office and Government Office for Science, James Tilbury and Dr Kudrat Virk. The central the UK Government’s Foresight programme, team of the Oxford Martin School, including the , the European Commission, Clara Bowyer and Carole Scott as well previous the London School of Economics, NESTA, BP, staff members Julia Banfield and Alison the Institute for Government, India’s National Stibbe, provided much-needed assistance on Planning Commission, India’s Strategic Foresight Commission communications and events, as Group, China’s National Development and well as technical and administrative support. Reform Commission, GetUp!, Berggruen Special thanks to Claire Jordan for her patient Holdings, Singapore’s Centre for Strategic coordination of meetings and teleconferences, as Futures, Seed Magazine, Australia’s Grattan well as David Clark for copy editing this report. Institute, and the World Futures Council. We are particularly grateful to Bob Zoellick, and to Guy The Commission thanks Arancha González Ryder and colleagues at the International Labour Laya, former Chief of Staff to Pascal Lamy Organization for their time and expert advice, at the WTO and now Executive Director as well as the Vodafone Group’s Chief Executive, of the International Trade Centre, for her Vittorio Colao; McKinsey’s Managing Director, encouragement and advice throughout this Dominic Barton; the Bank of England’s Executive work. Other colleagues at the WTO, Susan Director of Financial Stability, Andy Haldane; Conn, Deirdre Lynch and Elisabeth Perennou, Nobel laureate, Professor Michael Spence; helped with scheduling and logistics to enable Wales’ Commissioner for Sustainable Futures, the Chair to lead numerous workshops, Peter Davies; and the Executive Secretary of meetings, teleconferences and interviews. the Global Ocean Commission, Simon Reddy. Our greatest debt is to Dr James Martin The Commission has been supported who tragically died while this Commission, throughout by an Oxford Martin School which he warmly supported, was in progress. secretariat, led by Natalie Day (Head of Policy) James Martin believed that humanity is at a with Anushya Devendra (Communications and crossroads. It was his extraordinary vision and Policy Officer) and Dr Travers McLeod (Policy generosity that led to the formation of the Adviser). This secretariat has coordinated the Oxford Martin School. It is to the furthering process, undertaken in-depth research and of James Martin’s vision that this Commission assisted in the drafting of the report. report is dedicated.

85 The Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford is a unique, interdisciplinary research community of over 300 scholars working to address the most pressing global challenges and harness the potential opportunities. The Oxford Martin School supports over 30 individual research teams across the University of Oxford to consider some of the biggest questions that concern our future, at the frontiers of health and medicine, energy and the environment, technology and society, and ethics and governance. Examples of the challenges we address include the governance of geo-engineering, developing new forms of energy, food security, employment and equity, and the implications of our ageing population. Members of the Oxford Martin School are leaders in their fields and their research aims to have a significant tangible impact on global challenges.

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