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A Changing World: Redrawing the Map

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A Changing World: Redrawing the Map A Changing World: Redrawing the Map Climate, Human Migration, Food Security The 11th Royal Colloquium May 2013 ISBN: 978-91-637-4831-8 Publishers: Kessler & Karlqvist Editors: Elisabeth Kessler & Anders Karlqvist Layout and printing: Dixa Tryckeri Solna 2014 Cover: Narsaq, Greenland. 2007 Photo: His Majesty Kung Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden A Changing World: Redrawing the Map Climate, Human Migration, Food Security The 11th Royal Colloquium May 2013 Editors: Elisabeth Kessler and Anders Karlqvist Table of Contents Introduction by His Majesty King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden 5 What are we up to? Anders Karlqvist 7 Knowledge: Its Nature, Its Application and Its Value John Hyman 11 Individual Choice and Collective Responsibility in the Age of Globalization and Complexity Ian Goldin 17 Overcoming “Tragedies of the Commons” with Self-regulating, Participatory Market Society Dirk Helbing 21 Manufacturing Cooperation Bo Rothstein 27 Knowing about Limits Susan Owens 31 The Road to the Future is Rooted in the Past Paul Alan Cox 37 Why Don´t Research Findings have Better Impact? Nina Rehnqvist 43 One Health – A Necessary Approach for the Future Björn Olsen, Josef Järhult, Jonas Waldenström and Charlotte Berg 47 With Education the Future Looks Better Wolfgang Lutz 53 Environmental Change and Migration Susan Martin 59 Perenniation: Revolutionary Pathways to Meet Farming’s 21st Century Challenges Jerry Glover 65 Learning to Think:Thinking to Learn Garry Brewer 73 The Age of the Arctic: Challenges and Opportunities in Arctic and Global Communities Terry V. Callaghan, Ranga B. Myneni, Liang Xu, Margareta Johansson 79 Urban Transport: A Complex Issue Arne Wittlöv 87 Kiruna: A City in Transformation Göran Cars and Kristina Zakrisson 93 From the Horizon of Abisko Göran Bäckblom 99 The Editors and Authors 105 Royal Colloquium May 2013: Programme 109 The Royal Colloquia History 113 Introduction by His Majesty King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden In 1992, I invited a small group of scientists and decision makers to join me in a Royal Colloquium. The aim of the Colloquium was to discuss environmental pro- tection, conservation, and the sustainable use of natural resources, all of which are issues of personal interest to me. The Colloquia have now become a tradition and new Colloquia have followed in a series of meetings that have broadly addressed the interplay between environment and society. Among other things, we have asked ourselves: What can we learn from history? What have we learnt? How do we go from knowing to doing? Over the years since 1992, our perspectives have changed and are still changing. Some problems and challenges remain in focus while others have been partly solved, reformulated, or simply set aside to make room for new challenges. We have also seen how advan- ces in technology now allow us to look at the problems in new ways and to define emerging problems and reconsider some of the old ones. We all share a world in constant change, which means that we are constantly forced to redraw the map, both literally and figuratively. Today, we are in the process of geographically altering the map of the world, not only on a local but also on a glo- bal scale. The most obvious examples of anthropogenic activities influencing the environment include; energy use, resource depletion, food production, etc. These activities have led and continue to lead to climate change on a global scale. The mobility and migration of peoples are an inherent part of our history. What is new, however, is that we are currently witnessing demographic change on a grand scale. Peoples are being displaced for political, religious and economic reasons. In addition to which the effects of climate change are leading to displacement and relocation of large groups of people. 5 The challenges and threats to our environment are constantly with us, and over the years we have seen how human ingenuity has risen to meet these challenges and threats. However, human ingenuity and knowledge do not always lead to po- sitive change: Trust in individuals, institutions and authorities is critical, if we are to make things happen. Good models are important. In this respect, the town of Kiruna can serve as an interesting example for the future. The whole town is in the process of being relocated. A detailed description of this process -- the challenges faced by the mining company, local politicians and citizens, and the decisions to be reached-- is given in some detail in this publication. The publication you now have in your hand is based on presentations and contri- butions by participants at my 11th Royal Colloquium. These articles are intended to provide some important insights into the geography of knowledge from the perspective of different disciplines and fields of expertise. They clearly illustrate the complexity of our societies and the world we are all part of. We tried to look through the gap in the curtain to catch just a glimpse of our common future. The result may be vaguely unsettling, but it is also full of hope. Acknowledgements The 2013 Royal Colloquium and publication of this document were made possible by financial support from The Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation, The Marcus Wallenberg Foundation for International Science Cooperation, The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra), and LKAB (Luossavara-Kirunavara AB). We extend our sincere thanks to these organizations for their generous support of the whole Colloquium project. 6 Photo: A. Karlqvist A. Photo: What are we up to? Anders Karlqvist The future of society is dependent on decisions made by people and institutions and their behavior and actions. Philosophers have since the dawn of time been struggling with understanding the illusive nature of knowledge and how we form beliefs. From a scientific perspective facts should provide the proper basis for know- ledge. To know something is not only a matter of having the right opinion but to be able to explain and trust the underlying reasoning. Causality is a key factor which makes scientific knowledge different from value judgments in general or sheer luck. What makes this relationship between facts, knowledge, beliefs and action so difficult? Modern society can be characterized by two fundamental features; globa- lization and complexity. These characteristics are modern in the sense that they are basically driven by innovations in transport and computer/information technology. Local initiatives cannot be confined to local interests and activities but will often have widespread implications, in real time, involving even global opportunities and risks. Hence, rationality on a local level does not necessarily translate to global wisdom and attribution becomes difficult. Complexity and nonlinear relations make cause-effect difficult to comprehend or even counter intuitive. A systemic approach is necessary, but it is also important to go beyond existing institutional 7 boundaries. The interconnections between systems (transport, economy, energy etc.) become crucial. Organizational inventions are needed in order to grasp the full poten- tial of globalization, while avoiding the destructive aspects of increased vulnerability and cascading risks. Information technology plays a decisive role in connecting people across nations and continents. Huge amounts of data are continually being collected and processed. Networks become the natural environment for economic activities, rendering the clas- sical model of economic man operating out of self-interests on a free market more and more obsolete. We are all interconnected both as consumers and producers. Know- ledge and beliefs are challenged and tested as relational concepts; What do other pe- ople think? Whom do we trust? The advent of modern information technology makes it possible to exercise such queries more effectively than ever before in history. Networks, as demonstrated by internet, are by their very nature non-hierarchical. The opportunities for external control are limited. The organizational principle is essential based on self-regulation. This makes a challenge for society, when fundamental values are at stake, calling for collective or even global solutions. Scientists are warning that mankind is approaching dangerous planetary limits if the environment is to be able to sustain life on the planet. To provide basic need for food, water, energy for growing populations we must find new ways to build trust. In other words what is needed is cooperation to sustain common goods. Much empirical research has been carried out in the investigation of “human nature” and what leads to solidarity and effective coo- perative action. Neither self-interest nor altruism can provide the answer. The role of networks highlights the importance of reciprocity, we do what we expect other people to do to us. One conclusion from this observation is that the design of institutions plays a key role in fostering sound, and avoiding bad, collective behavior. A common way of describing the predicaments on the global scale is to phrase the problem in terms of limits. We can redraw the map but will always end up within the boundaries of the globe itself, where east meets west and south meets north. The “limits to growth” concept, introduced in the early 1970s, caught the imagination and caused heated debates, but the scientific underpinnings were simplified and the no- tion had a defeatistic tone. Later more sophisticated approaches have been introduced where boundaries and critical zones have been identified, based on rather thorough empirical data regarding climate, pollution, environmental degradation etc. Do we have the knowledge and the institutions in place to act on a truly global scale? The experience so far is not encouraging. Obvious obstacles are differences in living stan- dard and population pressure making any solution difficult to implement unless it is feasible to combine sustainability with development, i.e. to satisfy economic progress for a large, and growing, population with only limited and sustainable use of natural resources.
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