ANNUAL REPORT 2011 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Annual Report 2011 2 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

About the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), a Recognized Independent Centre of the University of Oxford, was founded in 1982 as a centre for advanced research into the social science aspects of energy. A non-profit making charity, it is distinguished from similar institutions elsewhere in the world in two important ways.

First, the Institute is committed to achieving the highest academic standards. The University of Oxford and three of its colleges – St Antony’s, St Catherine’s, and Nuffield – are Members of the Institute and occupy seats on the Board of Governors. Second, the Institute is committed to the idea of cooperation between scholars representing different sides of the international energy debate. Members of the Institute represent both the oil-producing and oil-consuming nations. This international character is also reflected in the composition of the research team. Such cooperation is intended to lead to more informed assumptions concerning the behaviour, motivations, and objectives of the various agents operating in the international energy scene.

This combination of academic excellence with attention to pressing real-life problems in the energy world provides a unique forum in which study and discussion can take place. Research carried out at the Institute is designed to encompass the following disciplines:

• the economics of petroleum, gas, coal, nuclear power, solar, and other forms of renewable energy;

• the politics and sociology of energy;

• the international relations of oil- and gas-producing and consuming nations;

• the economic development of oil- and gas-producing countries and the energy problems of other developing countries; and

• the economics and politics of the environment in its relationship with energy.

As a general policy the OIES concentrates on research into energy issues of international significance or which have implications for the interface of producers and consumers.

57 Woodstock Road Oxford OX2 6FA United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1865 311377 Fax: +44 (0)1865 310527 E-mail: [email protected] www: www.oxfordenergy.org

Registered Charity No. 286084 Recognized Independent Centre of the University of Oxford 2011 Annual Report 3

Contents

4 Message from the Chairman

6 Director’s Report

9 Research

31 Journals and Website

32 Lectures and Seminars

34 Library

35 Research Team and Staff

43 Visiting Research Fellows, Research Advisers, Contributing Authors, and Students

53 Accounts

56 Members

57 Governors and Trustees

58 Contributors

62 Recent Publications 4 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Message from the Chairman In November of 2012 the OIES will in the next thirty years and more. celebrate its thirtieth anniversary. Over However, we must have the flexibility this period it has benefitted from a to understand their development stable institutional environment that more fully in the context of growing allowed it to evolve productively environmental and social concerns, and build its reputation in energy as the imperatives of a lower carbon studies, focusing on policy and global economy will drive energy applied research. The Institute has policy in new directions and develop maintained strong links with industry, cleaner sources of energy. Although governments, and multilateral the Institute’s basic approach to energy organizations, and has developed into issues has been distinctly global, it a platform that provides context to has focused on specific regions and major energy issues, identifies global countries to enrich overall views. and regional trends, and performs Over the years, producing countries analysis in these areas. It disseminates with large resource endowments its work through its own publications, have been of particular interest and its two sister organizations – the they will continue to be a key object Oxford Energy Seminar and the of its research effort. However, Oxford Energy Policy Club, as well as oil markets, in spite of temporary the publications of its staff and their segmentations, are global in nature. interaction with industry and other The extent of natural gas markets has stakeholders. Since the Institute was been more limited, but LNG and long- established it has sustained a strong distance pipelines are reducing its commitment to deepening the dialogue fragmentation. These characteristics on energy issues between consumers explain the approach that was taken. and producers, governments and industry, the academic community The establishment, development, and and decision makers. As a recognized management of the Institute have independent centre of Oxford not been easy tasks. They required University it seeks to capture the imagination, an enduring commitment, benefits of its links to the University and a clear sense of purpose. Its and to its Member Colleges – Nuffield, success has been highly dependent St. Antony’s, and St. Catherine’s. on two individuals, with their own The Institute also hopes to bring to specific skill sets and relationships. the Oxford academic community Robert Mabro was its founder and a better understanding of relevant long-time Director and Christopher and pressing energy sector issues. Allsopp its Director since 2005. We are deeply indebted to them. Anniversaries like this one can be a good moment to review the Jonathan Stern’s contribution deserves Institute’s accomplishments and, special mention. He set up and headed more importantly, to reflect on its the natural gas research programme future. This exercise should help us as its Director. A significant number identify new issues and problems of timely books, articles, and working in the energy field that should be papers attest to the productivity of researched. It would also allow this programme, as well as the strong us to adapt to new circumstances team he formed and the important and build on our past success. Our network of industry participants that central interests will continue to be he structured. He has now been ably in the oil and natural gas industries, succeeded by Howard Rogers. Bassam given their expected importance Fattouh, the Director of the Oil and the 2011 Annual Report 5

Middle East Programme, has rapidly built a reputation through his work on the international oil pricing system and has written well-regarded articles that have appeared in academic journals, in books published by the Institute, and in a series of working papers. He is actively involved in networking in oil-producing countries, especially in the Gulf and North Africa, and in both the Oxford Energy Seminar and the Oxford Energy Policy Club.

In the last few years the staff of the Institute has been growing as a result of the recruitment effort led by Christopher Allsopp. The number of research fellows and visiting research fellows, as well as external research advisers, has increased gradually as part of our mid-term objective of doubling the size of the Institute. Further growth will necessarily require additional support and funding from our benefactors. At the same time the Director has managed with the same dedicated administrative staff. These developments bode well for the future of the Institute as it reaches its thirtieth year.

Adrián Lajous Chairman of the Board 6 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Director’s Report The main objectives of the OIES are Recruitment and staff to undertake advanced research on There has been very little turnover of energy issues of global relevance. As research staff. Lavan Mahadeva joined an educational charity, the Institute the OIES as a Senior Research Fellow in is committed to the dissemination August 2011. He leads macroeconomic of the results of research as widely research at the Institute, his research as possible, both in academia and focuses on the interaction of energy in the world at large. The Institute’s markets with the macroeconomy and research in 2011 continued to examine international finance. We welcomed the economics, the politics, and the back Juan Carlos Boué, whose current sociology of energy with a focus research concerns the governance on oil and natural gas. Its research mechanisms and legal structure spanned the international relations underpinning the international oil between producers and consumers industry. Amongst other projects, he of energy, the economic development will working in the priority area of of producing nations, and the the energy sector in Brazil. Professor geopolitical aspects of all these issues, Sir Chris Llwellyn-Smith and Dr alongside the economics and politics Ali Aissaoui were appointed Senior of the environment in relation to Research Advisers. Altogether, energy, including climate change. over 40 researchers are listed in this Report – many of whom are part Developments during the year 2011 time. The mix reflects the Institute’s illustrate the interactions between policy of recruiting both experienced international developments and global researchers, many with a background energy markets. The global economy, in industry, as well as academics from a after the optimism of the recovery variety of social science backgrounds. year 2010, slowed in 2011, especially in OECD countries. However, geopolitical Priorities for recruitment include worries, especially surrounding the further appointments relating effects of the Arab Spring, worked in to oil, and to the economics and the opposite way, supporting oil prices, geopolitics of the Middle East and in the first half of 2012 the price of as well as China and India. Brent crude rose to a peak of $127 (in March), reflecting also worries over Relations with the University developments in Iran. (The subsequent The formal position of the OIES in fall was associated with the developing relation to Oxford University is as a crisis in the Euro area.) For the year Recognized Independent Centre (RIC). 2011 as a whole, the average price of This status was established in 2007 and oil was about $105. By contrast, prices has been running now for a number of of natural gas diverged. The shale gas years. Generally, the new relationship revolution in the USA led to very low (which replaced the old status of domestic prices, as well as the release an Associated Institute) has been of increased supplies of LNG for other working well. Oversight is provided areas of the world. One consequence by the University’s Joint Committee was an increasing disequilibrium for the Coordination of Independent between long-term contract prices Research Centres. Not surprisingly, and spot prices on the developing however, as noted last year, there European hubs. The Fukushima are still a number of areas where the disaster in March 2011 affected not relationship between the University only international gas markets, but also and the RICs could be improved. The markedly altered prospects for nuclear Institute’s work is becoming better power generation around the world. understood and appreciated within the University (particularly since the appointment of Sir Chris Llewellyn 2011 Annual Report 7

Smith as the University’s Director with the countries’ respective oil and for Energy Research), though it is gas sectors. It is based on Dr Paik’s probably still true that OIES is better unrivalled knowledge gained from known outside than inside Oxford. 25 years specializing in this subject. The second is a multi-authored Last year’s Report referred to the project exploring the pricing of Report by the University’s Joint internationally traded gas. This is Committee for the coordination of another book which will be the first of Independent Research Centres (it its kind in its field. Twenty Working was OIES’s turn to be assessed in Papers were published during the 2010), noting that the procedures had year (on a very wide range of topics) proved to be extremely useful and as well as numerous Comments. helpful in improving understanding on all sides. The Report was formally A programme of seminar/workshops, discussed by the OIES board in with invited participants, focusing November 2011. One issue that was on issues relating to oil markets highlighted was that the formal and was instituted in 2009. The 2011 ‘Oil informal relationships between the Day’ focused on the regulation of Institute and Oxford University were oil markets. We are very grateful for extremely important (and likely to support for this event from the two become more so) in the recruiting main exchanges, ICE and CME Group and retention of senior staff, and that (formerly Nymex). Plans for the 2012 they would be particularly important ‘Oil Day’ are well underway. It is in the future when the time came to intended that the discussions will focus recruit and appoint a new Director. on the outlook for Brazilian oil, as well as on the international repercussions of Activities and research in 2011 the expected build-up of production. As indicated in this Report, three books were published during 2011. During 2011, Jonathan Stern gave Katja Yafimava’s The Transit Dimension up the Directorship of the Natural of EU Energy and Security: Russian Gas Programme, handing over that gas transit across Ukraine, Belarus, and role to Howard Rogers in October. Moldova is the first book to provide Jonathan Stern is now Chairman of an in-depth analysis of market, legal/ the Natural Gas Programme and regulatory, and energy security Senior Research Fellow of the OIES. aspects of the transit of Russian gas to The change in roles, which gives Europe across western CIS countries Jonathan Stern more time for his own – Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova – research and writing, was supported to Europe. The book on Natural Gas by the Sponsors. Meanwhile, the Markets in the Middle East and North Natural Gas Programme continues Africa, edited by Jonathan Stern and to go from strength to strength. The Bassam Fattouh, was the product of regular sponsors meetings and the successful collaboration between the ‘Gas Day’ were all highly successful. Gas Programme and the Oil and the Membership is expanding – to Middle East Programme of the OIES. the point where the programme is It provides a comprehensive analysis now essentially at capacity. of market prospects in countries with 40 per cent of the world’s proven gas The Institute’s cross-cutting reserves. The book on UK Energy Policy programmes on India and China and the End of Market Fundamentalism continue to move forward. A working was edited by Ian Rutledge and paper on ‘Oil Revenues and Economic Philip Wright. Two other books are in Development: The Case of Rajasthan, preparation and are well-advanced for India’ by Anupama Sen and Paul publication in 2012. In Sino-Russian Oil Segal was published in 2011. Another and Gas Cooperation, Keun-Wook Paik working paper ‘Natural Gas in India: explores the many aspects of the new An Analysis of Policy’ by Anil K. Jain Sino-Russian relationship connected and Anupama Sen was also published 8 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

in 2011 – in advance of publication as the Institute widens its scope and (in early 2012) of Anil K Jain’s book expands over the next few years. Natural Gas in India: Liberalisation and Policy. Generally, the Institute’s Christopher Allsopp visibility and reputation within India Director is improving rapidly. The China programme is, as noted in previous Reports, still in need of additional funding, but OIES’s visibility and links with China have been transformed over the last few years.

The Institute’s annual ‘Brainstorming’ was held in Nice in early June. We are extremely grateful to Schlumberger for generous support for this successful occasion.

The Institute continues its successful programme of internal seminars. These are proving invaluable in bringing together the various different strands of research, and fostering academic interactions within the Institute. The Lecture series on the geopolitics of energy, held jointly with St Antony’s College, continues to bring distinguished speakers to Oxford and to attract large audiences.

General As a research institute, OIES depends greatly on the continuing dedication of its administrative staff, Kate Teasdale, Susan Millar, Margaret Ko, Lavinia Brandon, and Jo Ilott. We are very grateful for the way in which they foster the relaxed but productive research atmosphere which is one of the main characteristics of OIES. The interactive and networking aspects of the Institute’s research also benefit greatly from the close relationship with the two sister institutions, the Oxford Energy Policy Club and the Oxford Energy Seminar. From a wider perspective, the OIES ‘model’ also depends crucially on the increasingly close and productive relationships that have been built up with its members, benefactors, sponsors, and friends. It is these linkages that allow a relatively small Institute to develop its global reach and reputation. These relationships will become even more important 2011 Annual Report 9

Research Environmental Attitudes observes that history has created and Impacts on Local significant challenges for the future. Content Policy Formation An Anatomy of the in Kazakhstan Crude Oil Pricing System In this project Yelena Kalyuzhnova The main purpose of this report by analyses state–civil society interaction Bassam Fattouh is to analyse the main and policy accountability in features of the current crude oil pricing Kazakhstan. Specifically, the project system; to describe the structure of examines how environmental the main benchmarks currently used, attitudes across different state–civil namely Brent West Texas Intermediate society segments are articulated and (WTI) and Dubai–Oman; to clearly enacted in the local content policy identify the various financial layers that formation process. A comparative have emerged around these physical institutional analysis is utilized to benchmarks; to analyse the links test theories of natural resource rent between the different financial layers extraction and circulation, and their and between the financial layers and relationship to environmental and the physical benchmarks; and then to local content policies. Population evaluate how these links influence the surveys and key actor interviews price discovery and oil price formation are conducted to provide objective process in the crude oil market. The specific data. The environment–local report finds the assumption that the content focus aims to combine a process of identifying the price of number of external and internal policy benchmarks in the current oil pricing factors and will reveal additional system can be isolated from financial generalizable insights into state–civil layers to be rather simplistic. The society interaction in Kazakhstan. different layers of the oil market are highly interconnected and form a Kazakhstan’s Oil Fund complex web of links, all of which play and its Role in the 2007–9 a role in the price discovery process. The report also calls for broadening Financial Crisis the empirical research to include the trading strategies of physical Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have players; any analysis limited to non- different titles, goals, and rules, but commercial participants in the futures they share the underlying objective market and their role in the oil price of helping governments deal with the formation process is incomplete. The problems created by large and variable report also emphasizes the distinction revenues (mainly from energy or between trade in price differentials other commodity-related sectors). In and trade in price levels, and finds Kazakhstan, such a fund (the National that the level of the oil price which Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan consumers, producers, and their (NFRK)) was established in 2000. This governments are most concerned with fund operates as both a stabilization is not the most relevant feature in the and a savings fund. The first test for current pricing system. Instead, the the NFRK was the 2007–9 financial identification of price differentials and crisis, where the NFRK ‘saved’ the the adjustments in these differentials economy and guaranteed its speedy in the various layers underlie the basis recovery. Yelena Kalyuzhnova of the current oil pricing system. analyses the NFRK’s operation up to 2007 and during the crisis years 2007–9, before drawing conclusions and implications for the future. She 10 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Uncertainty, Expectations, important consequences on the oil price and Fundamentals: formation process. A paper based on this report and co-authored by Bassam Whatever Happened to Fattouh and Pasquale Scaramozzino Long-Term Oil Prices? was also published in a special issue of Oxford Review of Economic Policy, One of the major features of the oil Volume 27, Issue 1, Spring 2011. market during the 1990s was the relative stability of the long-term oil The Oil Trading Markets, price. While the spot price and the 2003–10: Analysis of price of near-term futures contracts sometimes exhibited sharp price Market Behaviour and volatility, that volatility was only Possible Policy Responses partially transmitted to the back end of the futures curve, which was In this working paper, Adair Turner, anchored around the $20–22/barrel Jon Farrimond, and Jonathan Hill range. However, as oil prices rose consider price movements in the oil sharply during the boom years, the trading markets between 2003 and consensus on the oil price that would 2010, and provide an analysis of balance the long-term fundamentals factors which potentially explain the of the oil market broke down, and the significant trends in this period. The whole futures curve became subject to authors also discuss the impact of a series of shifts. Empirical evidence different forms of oil price volatility, suggests that in the late 1990s and early and propose that the type which 2000s there was limited evidence of matters most from an economic adjustment between short-term and standpoint is that of medium-term long-term oil prices. These dynamics, price trends. The authors then however, changed in early 2005 with discuss possible public policy actions the long-term price making most of that could be employed to prevent the adjustment towards the prompt or mitigate such trends, with the price. In this report, Bassam Fattouh paper concluding that proposals suggests an interpretation of the long- solely related to the operation term behaviour of oil prices, based of the financial markets will not on the insights of two models. The address the fundamental drivers of first is based on a signal extraction instability. The final version of this mechanism and shows that when the working paper was also published private beliefs by investors about the in Oxford Review of Economic Policy, long-run determinants of oil prices Volume 27, Issue 1, Spring 2011. become less precise relative to the information contained in the current Oil and International Energy spot price, then the expected future oil price becomes closer to the current This article, co-authored by spot price. The second model is based Christopher Allsopp and Bassam on Bayesian updating and shows Fattouh, focuses on issues surrounding that if the variability of the spot price international oil markets within the increases and/or if the spot price wider context of international energy, remains higher over a sustained period the global economy, and conflicting of time than anticipated by investors, agendas such as energy security then the probability distribution of the and climate change. It is suggested parameter capturing the speed of mean that important aspects of the current reversion will shift and the expected situation appear ‘unsustainable’ future price will move closer to the – increasing uncertainty and current spot price. The paper’s analysis methodological difficulties for predicts that in the face of increased any assessment of likely future uncertainty the long-term and short- developments. It is argued that the term prices are bound to exhibit similar dynamics of oil prices during the movements. These changes have 2002–9 cycle reflected great uncertainty 2011 Annual Report 11

about future ‘fundamentals’ as well as – copper, gold, WTI oil, and silver the absence of previously anticipated – are asymmetrically co-integrated. stabilizing feedbacks from supply, from However, the asymmetric adjustment demand, or from policy. It is suggested to the long-run equilibrium differs that damaging oil-price swings could among those commodities, reflecting be moderated by better policy, though different profitable opportunities. probably not by financial regulation. The adjustment is faster for copper In the longer term, the uncertainties after positive shocks, while it is remain very great, especially since faster for the safe havens oil, gold, the tensions between a realist view of and silver after negative shocks. It likely energy-market developments is more the spot and not the futures and the imperatives of the climate price for the four commodities that change agenda remain unresolved. focuses in its adjustment on long- A wide range of policies in producer run factors. In sum, the adjustments and consumer countries are likely to imply different trading strategies, affect not only oil prices but also the depending on whether the faster contentious issue of the distribution adjustment happened from above or of rents within the industry. The below the threshold. The article was article was published in a special issue published in The Energy Journal, 31(4): of Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 183–204, 2010 (with S. Hammoudeh, Volume 27, Issue 1, Spring 2011. L.H. Chen, and Bassam Fattouh). Oil Price Shocks and How to Spend It: Resource the Macroeconomy Wealth and the Distribution Paul Segal examines the impact of oil of Resource Revenues price shocks and attempts to explain why the rise in oil prices up to 2008 had Natural resource revenues differ from little impact on the world economy. other government revenues both in The paper argues that the effect of oil their time profile, and in their political prices on macroeconomic outcomes and legal status: they are volatile can only be understood in the context and exhaustible, and belong to all of broader macroeconomic policy, citizens of the country in which they and monetary policy in particular. are located. In this paper, Paul Segal Oil price rises do not cause recessions examines the expenditure of resource per se, but rather, when oil price revenues in detail, considering existing rises lead to inflation, then monetary practices in resource-rich countries, authorities tend to raise interest rates their implications, and alternatives. in response, thereby reducing output. It considers both the distributional The fact that oil price rises have tended impact and the efficiency of alternative not to pass through to inflation in policies, focusing on the extent to more recent years explains why their which they succeed in providing impact on aggregate output has also all citizens with their share of the declined. The paper was published benefits due to natural resources. in a special issue of Oxford Review of It also shows how, by dropping the Economic Policy, Volume 27, Issue 1, assumption of a representative agent, a Spring 2011, co-edited by Christopher concern for poverty and social welfare Allsopp and Bassam Fattouh. more generally interacts with, and alters, standard recommendations Asymmetric Adjustments for the intertemporal management in Oil and Metals Markets of resource revenues. This work was published as a research paper Using the threshold co-integration by the LSE Kuwait Programme on methods, Enders–Siklos (2001) and Development, Governance and Hansen–Seo (2002), this study finds Globalisation in the Gulf States in that spot and futures prices in each of October 2011 and is now undergoing the four widely traded commodities revisions for the journal Energy Policy. 12 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Twenty Years of Producer– determinants of oil demand, both Consumer Dialogue in in the short run and in the long run, focusing on some key relationships that a Changing World are important to understanding the dynamics of global oil demand, and From its humble beginnings in Paris explores some of the underlying causes in 1991 the global producer–consumer for the divergent projections by the dialogue on energy has developed various organizations. It then draws through the International Energy some policy lessons for Middle East Forum (IEF) so that it is now the oil producers. This chapter, authored world’s largest gathering of Energy by Bassam Fattouh, was published Ministers. IEF Countries account for in The Oil Era: Emerging Challenges, more than 90 per cent of global oil and Abu Dhabi: The Emirates Centre for gas supply and demand. In addition to Strategic Studies and Research. IEA and OPEC countries, transit states and key energy players, including Anatomy of an Oil-Based Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Welfare State: Rent and South Africa, participate in the Forum. The magnitude and diversity Distribution in Kuwait of this engagement is a testament to the IEF’s position as a neutral facilitator. This paper on the distribution of oil Through the Forum and its associated rents in Kuwait, written by Laura El- events, IEF Ministers, their officials, Katiri, Bassam Fattouh, and Paul Segal, energy industry executives, and was completed in 2010 and published other experts engage in a dialogue as an LSE Kuwait Programme of increasing importance to global research paper in January 2011; and energy security. The twists, turns, and in a shortened form as a chapter in developments of the 20 year history of David Held and Kristian Ulrichsen the dialogue are documented in this (eds.), The Transformation of the Gulf: publication, co-authored by Bassam Politics, Economics and the Global Order, Fattouh and Coby van der Linde. Routledge in October 2011. The paper explores the relationship between oil Dynamics of Global Oil wealth, oil rents, and governmental Demand: Implications for distributive policies in the context of Kuwait. Oil has created a wealthy Middle East Producers and relatively egalitarian economy based on an extensive distributive The wide uncertainty surrounding system that provides Kuwaiti citizens oil market dynamics in the aftermath with essential services including free of the financial crisis did not prevent healthcare, education, and social many market analysts from making security. The most important fact bold predictions that market about Kuwait’s oil wealth, therefore, fundamentals are likely to tighten is that it has been successfully used to in the near future. These predictions benefit its citizens. This feat has been are based on the combination of achieved through a broad distributive three factors: a very limited growth welfare state. Nevertheless, Kuwait’s in non-OPEC supply; a slowdown policies of rent distribution have in investment in OPEC countries; developed in an ad hoc manner into and a rapid growth in global oil an uncoordinated system. Some of demand fuelled mainly by non- Kuwait’s policies of rent distribution OECD economies. This paper – such as subsidizing utilities and focuses on one element underlying providing public employment – have the current predictions of tight oil resulted in substantial distortions, market fundamentals: global oil inefficiencies, and institutional demand dynamics. It provides a deficiencies and the paper argues that general overview of the current there remains substantial scope for corpus of knowledge concerning the improvement. The paper has been 2011 Annual Report 13

extremely well received and has been wood, dung, and agricultural residues linked with a number of public lectures particularly in Comoros, Djibouti, given by the authors on their research. Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia but also in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and The Implications of the Syria. This study by Laura El-Katiri Arab Uprisings for Oil and Bassam Fattouh fills a gap in the existing literature by looking at the case and Gas Markets of prevailing energy poverty in Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Arab The events that took place in the Arab world. The Yemeni case is particularly world in the opening months of 2011 interesting because of the country’s mark a watershed in the history of the status as a net energy exporter. Large Middle East and North Africa (MENA) segments of the Yemeni population, region. Given the importance of MENA both in rural and urban areas, rely energy supplies in global economic heavily on traditional fuels such as terms, the political unrest witnessed firewood and dung while electrification by the region has caused widespread rates in Yemen are relatively low, only fears about the prospect of energy 54 per cent of Yemeni households supply disruptions. With international having access to electricity. Decades oil and gas prices beginning to rise of underinvestment and lack of from 2010, there was serious concern necessary infrastructure, and Yemen’s among market and political actors that prevailing poverty problem have all any further increase in prices would contributed to this status, as has the put at risk the fragile recovery of the country’s fractured political system. global economy from the deepest recession in decades. This paper by Energy Subsidies in Hakim Darbouche and Bassam Fattouh the Arab World examines the significance of the recent Arab uprisings and their implications The policy of maintaining tight for regional and global oil and gas control of domestic energy prices markets. It argues that, although has characterized the political and markets were able to cope resiliently economic environment in most Arab in the short term, there remains much countries, together with many other uncertainty about the likely longer- parts of the world, for decades. The term implications of the recent events. objectives behind such a policy range from overall welfare objectives such Energy Poverty in as expanding energy access and the Arab World protecting poor households’ incomes; to economic development objectives While much of the emphasis of the such as fostering industrial growth and literature on energy poverty is on the smoothing domestic consumption; and prevalence of the phenomenon in sub- to political considerations, including Saharan Africa and South Asia, little the distribution of oil and natural has been written about energy poverty gas rents in resource-rich countries. in the Arab world. Traditionally having While energy subsidies may be seen being seen as one of the world’s most as achieving some of a country’s energy-rich regions, the Arab world has objectives, this paper argues they are in recent years often been overlooked a costly and inefficient way of doing as a region which suffers severely from so. Energy subsidies distort price energy poverty itself. In 2002, about signals, with serious implications on 65 million people in the Arab world efficiency and the optimal allocation of had no access to electricity, and an resources. Energy subsidies also tend additional 60 million were severely to be regressive, with high-income undersupplied in both urban and rural households and industries benefiting areas. In terms of cooking and heating, proportionately most from low energy almost one-fifth of the Arab population prices. However, despite such adverse rely on non-commercial fuels like effects, energy subsidies constitute 14 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

an important social safety net for to oil revenues to the richest 10 per the poor in many parts of the Arab cent, from everyone else. In this sense world, and any attempts to reduce the fiscal system is highly regressive. or eliminate them in the absence of compensatory programmes would lead The Strategic Implications to a decline in households’ welfare and of Russia’s Eastern erode the competitiveness of certain industries. Therefore, a critical factor Oil Resources for successful reforms will be the ability of governments to compensate This working paper by James their populations for the reduction or Henderson, published in March 2011, removal of subsidies through carefully outlines the renewed focus on the designed mitigation measures that oil sector in Eastern Russia, with a protect the poorest and assist the particular focus on those resources economy in its long-term adaptation. which are likely to fill the new East The paper argues that a reform of Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline. Russian energy pricing mechanisms in the oil exports have historically been Arab world may be seen as beneficial focused on western markets, with the from more than one perspective. country’s huge trunk pipelines taking Nevertheless, the authors recognize all the crude not used in domestic that the current political climate in refineries from Siberia into the heart the region will render the reform of of Europe, or to Russia’s Baltic or domestic energy prices difficult in Black Sea coasts for onward transport practice, such that reform may indeed into the global oil markets. However, be a medium- to long-term endeavour. Russia’s position in European and The paper was written by Bassam other western markets has now Fattouh and Laura El-Katiri for the matured to a level where further UNDP as part of the organization’s expansion will be difficult to achieve, Arab Human Development Report and as a result the rapid growth of Research Paper Series and was the Asia–Pacific economies, and in published in February 2012. particular China, over the past two decades has led to a re-focusing of The Distribution of Oil Russia’s strategic and energy interests. Revenues in Mexico This paper therefore examines the renewed enthusiasm for investment Paul Segal’s paper ‘“El Pétroleo es in oil resources in east Siberia and the Nuestro”: The Distribution of Oil Far East. The key catalyst required to Revenues in Mexico’ was published encourage increased activity in this by the James A. Baker III Institute sector has always been considered for Public Policy, Rice University, to be the construction of pipeline Houston, Texas, as part of a joint infrastructure to allow any oil from project in collaboration with Lawrence new fields to be moved to market, and Whitehead. The paper was presented the Russian State has now provided at a major conference in Mexico in 2011. this incentive via its wholly owned It analyses the distributive impact of transport company Transneft, which fiscal policy in Mexico in the context opened the East Siberia Pacific Ocean of its substantial oil revenues. Dr Segal pipeline in December 2009. This finds that while Mexico’s fiscal system pipeline not only provides a link appears progressive, in the sense that to Russia’s Pacific coast, but as of the poor receive more in benefits from January 2011 also provided a direct the fiscal system than they pay in taxes, link to the world’s fastest growing oil a closer analysis reveals that official market, China. This paper examines figures imply that all but the richest 10 the strategic importance of this new per cent of citizens receive less from pipeline route, both in terms of the fiscal system than their share of oil Russia’s relations with China, and revenues. The net effect of fiscal policy, also in the context of the impact of therefore, is to transfer entitlements newly emerging Russian crude on the 2011 Annual Report 15

Asia–Pacific oil market. In particular result, fledging domestic oil companies it focuses on the ability of Russia to experienced considerable constraints increase production from its eastern on their business activities within a regions to fill the full capacity of the semi-disintegrated Russian state. The ESPO, and examines the plans of second theme examines the economic all the companies involved in the and political strategies deployed by development of licences and fields these companies to achieve corporate from Krasnoyarsk in the west to consolidation over Russia’s oil sector Sakhalin Island in the east, looking in in the late 1990s–early 2000s. During detail at the specific assets that will this period, oligarchs succeeded provide the bulk of Russia’s oil exports not only in undermining the grip of to eastern markets. The paper also regional governors on the domestic discusses the fiscal incentives that the oil industry, but also in emerging as Russian State is starting to provide in a new political threat to the Kremlin. order to encourage companies to make The third theme, then, focuses on the the long-term investment decisions Kremlin’s re-assertion of state control needed to develop oil fields in the over the national oil sector, and the region, and also provides estimates, declining political power of governors by company, of the potential amount and oligarchs in Russia in the 2000s. and timing of oil production that Finally, the book reveals how the could possibly emerge as a result. Kremlin elite, resource-rich regions, Its overall conclusion is that the and oil companies view the future potential exists for Russia’s eastern of the domestic oil industry and its territories to produce sufficient role in the modernization of Russia. oil to balance the gradual decline expected in the west of the country, Sino-Russian Oil and thereby allowing the Russian oil Gas Cooperation industry to meet the government’s overall target for production in Keun-Wook Paik’s book project Sino- 2030 of around 10 mmbpd. Russian Oil and Gas Cooperation: The Reality and Implications covers the ups The Battle for Russian Oil: and downs of oil and gas relationships Corporations, Regions between two energy giants during the period 1993–2010. This project reviews and the State the status of the oil and gas industry in China and in the Asian part of This book, by Shamil Midkhatovich Russia. China has already developed Yenikeyeff, to be published by the its first west–east gas pipeline and the Oxford University Press in 2012, deals second is being constructed. Russia with the politics of the Russian oil has completed the first stage of the industry from 1991 to the present day. East Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO) Within this twenty-year period, fierce crude oil pipeline. Massive lending battles emerged over who controls has recently finalized the long-delayed Russia’s oil industry: the Kremlin, decision on the spur pipeline from Russian regional governors, or the the ESPO line. In this context, Sino- oligarchs? These clashes determined Russian oil cooperation is on the the course of development for right track. However, there is no sign Russia’s oil sector, and have shaped of a breakthrough in the gas price the evolution of Russia’s political negotiations between Russia and China system, from the collapse of the (even though Gazprom argues the final Soviet Union to the present day. price agreement will be settled by 2011) and this continued delay will help the The book explores four themes: expansion of LNG supply to the coastal The first theme presents a story of areas of China. This study also reviews the expanded influence of regional factors such as oil and gas supply governors over Russia’s internal from the Central Asian Republics, politics and economy in the 1990s. As a China’s massive foreign reserves, and 16 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Russia’s gas exports to Korea – which or to provide a universal pension that will have a serious effect on Sino- would eliminate old age poverty. Russian oil and gas cooperation. The Economics of Oil Revenues and Economic Energy in India Development: the Case of Anupama Sen’s research focuses on Rajasthan, India the economics of energy in India. India’s economy has been growing at In 2004 a large discovery of oil was an average of 8 per cent in the last few made in Rajasthan, a relatively years. Although India is primarily a poor state in north-west India. Oil ‘coal economy’, rapid growth has led began to flow in 2009. The estimated to growth and diversification in energy total hydrocarbons resource base in use in the last few years, including Rajasthan is 6.5 billion barrels, and efforts to encourage exploration for the fields are estimated to have the hydrocarbons within India, and to potential to reach output levels of increase the use of non-conventional over 200,000 barrels of oil per day. energy sources. Despite this, per The quantities of oil that are expected capita energy consumption is very to be produced, and their resulting poor, at about 30 per cent of the world revenues, are significant, but unlikely average, and nearly a quarter of the to be transformative to the state’s population lack access to any form of finances. However, given low levels of modern commercial energy. Factors economic and human development, that have contributed to this include, effectively-spent resource revenues first, capacity constraints that have could have a significant impact on restricted diversification, despite early the welfare of Rajasthan’s citizens. In signs of an impending shortage in this paper, Paul Segal and Anupama power. Second, there are physical and Sen discuss options for the use and regulatory constraints in distributional management of oil revenues in infrastructure, including grid Rajasthan, picking up the challenge connectivity and pipeline networks, from the point at which revenues restricting the substitution of energy start to flow to the government. The sources. Third, there are distortions receipt and expenditure of oil revenues in pricing, at two ‘points’; prices paid are matters for fiscal policy, and they by marketing/distribution companies are considered here in the context of to exploration companies, and prices India’s federal system, where fiscal paid by energy users to marketing/ responsibility is divided between distribution companies, both of which the federal government and state were until recently set well below costs, governments. Drawing on international and were sustained through policies experience, the authors discuss how that are untenable in the long run. The resource revenues are spent in practice, problems in India’s energy sector relate and how they might better be used to its wider transition from a planned to benefit the citizens who ultimately to a market-oriented economy. Policy own them. The authors argue that changes in energy pricing during 2011, smoothing fiscal expenditures, particularly in oil and gas, have pushed including oil revenues, is likely to be the focus of the problem further into wise, but saving oil revenues abroad downstream consuming sectors. using international financial markets is likely to be less beneficial than Dr Sen’s research has covered aspects using them to complement existing of these main issues. In ‘Diversity social policies in the state, or investing in Unity: An Empirical Analysis of domestically. They demonstrate the Economic Effects of Electricity how oil revenues could be used to Deregulation in Indian States’ an target poverty reduction through econometric analysis using an ‘index’ supplementing rural employment to measure electricity reform was generation programmes in the state, conducted for Indian states, taking 2011 Annual Report 17

into account India’s political economy analyses the Indian fiscal regime in and regional diversity. It explored three broad categories; first, it looks the effects of a ‘generic’ model of at the relationship between the fiscal reform on key economic variables, terms offered and outcomes, in terms including prices and investment flows. of progress in exploration. Second, it Results showed that actual outcomes considers the system of auctioning (a were counterintuitive to expected simultaneous sealed bid auction with outcomes, mainly because of the levels one round) by examining data on the of distortions, primarily in pricing, participation of bidders, the terms that existed prior to implementing bid, and the information asymmetries reform. Outcomes therefore tended to that exist between NOCs, domestic be negative with the implementation private companies, and international of reform, but stabilized at a ‘baseline’ oil companies. Finally, it considers level on the reform index. This paper exogenous factors in determining was accepted for publication in 2011 the results of the auctioning rounds in The Energy Journal, a leading journal and of exploration outcomes. in the field of energy economics. ‘Natural Gas in India: An Analysis Natural Gas in India: of Policy’ (joint with Anil Jain) a an Analysis of Policy Working Paper published in April 2011, analysed India’s policy on natural In 2010, the Indian government gas. It identified two areas of policy increased the price of ‘administered’ that are likely to influence the future gas to more than double its previous role of the gas sector: specific aspects level, in a significant policy change. of the fiscal regime in exploration This move, whilst appearing to signal and production, and pricing in the a reduction in distortions on one side main downstream gas consuming of the policy equation (that is, the price sectors. This paper then broke down paid to gas producers by marketing and analysed policy on pricing in and retailing companies), highlights downstream sectors, suggesting distortions on the other side (the options to help the transition towards complex subsidy regime for prices market-oriented functioning, whilst paid by some gas users to retailers), ensuring the provision of basic essentially pushing the focus onto goods which use gas as an input in downstream consuming sectors. This manufacturing, to the poorest sections paper, by Anil Jain and Anupama Sen, of the population. It drew from argues that the transition in the gas experience in the liberalization of oil sector is part of the larger movement prices in India and the replacement of of the economy from a centrally input subsidies with a direct transfer planned and administered system to eligible consumers. In ‘Oil Revenues to one based on market principles. and Economic Development: The Case During transition, the situation cannot of Rajasthan, India’ (joint with Paul be understood simply in terms of the Segal) published as a Working Paper conventional paradigm of demand in June 2011, policy options for the and supply being brought into balance use of oil revenues in an Indian state by price. Demand and supply are were explored, in relation to India’s influenced by different factors, but fiscal regime for hydrocarbons, its have been kept broadly in balance by system of fiscal federalism, and levels the complex system of administered of economic development. This paper pricing and quantitative allocation. was based on a presentation made to The resulting distortions have been officials from the State Government of spread across the gas consuming Rajasthan on options for the use and sectors – notably power and fertilizers. management of resource revenues from As distortions mount, parts of the oil production. In the second half of system are modified, usually in the 2011, Dr Sen began working on a paper broad direction of liberalization and investigating India’s fiscal regime for reform. But partial reform often has hydrocarbons exploration. This paper the effect of displacing the problems, 18 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

presenting further challenges, and with increasing exposure to regional requiring further changes. Large and global markets and prices via changes in the pricing and allocation increasing import dependence, of gas cannot therefore occur without have greeted such conclusions with finding other ways of addressing approval. In this view, dependence on distributional objectives. This paper gas is seen as a major problem which argues that official forecasts of demand will be remedied by the introduction and supply, although optimistic, of low-carbon energy sources. are based on a ‘planner’s outlook’, and a better assessment of the role This paper by Howard Rogers, of gas may be found in the price published in August 2011, is the first competitiveness of gas with alternative independent attempt to address both fuels in its main consuming sectors. of these questions within a framework It draws from experience in the oil which takes empirical account of both sector – where prices were liberalized regional and global gas markets, and in 2010 for all but the poorest segments the introduction of increasing amounts of consumers – thus in gas, the of intermittent wind generation in paper argues that there is a case for the UK power sector. The results of considering market prices in the gas Howard Rogers’ empirical modelling sector, and providing the subsidy challenge the assumption that as directly to the end-user in the fertilizer a result of substantial increases in sector, where the distributional renewable generation capacity, the concerns appear most significant. role of gas will decline rapidly over The paper argues that although the next decade and beyond. The reforms are taking place, the current study suggests that the importance of situation is essentially a half-way gas for power generation will remain house, and it suggests ways forward undiminished until 2025. Although from this through the resolution of its role may change, gas is likely to specific problems on the supply and be particularly important in respect demand sides. This paper is to be of ensuring security of supply in the published as a book by OIES in 2012. context of increasing wind generation capacity and intermittent generation The Impact of Import output. It is not the role of the OIES Dependency and Wind gas research programme to promote natural gas, either in the UK or more Generation on UK Gas generally. However, our research Demand and Security increasingly suggests that the likely of Supply to 2025 future role of gas in energy balances has been, and continues to be, under- For most of the past decade the UK estimated in a range of countries gas market has been the largest in including, somewhat surprisingly Europe, and gas has been the most given its long gas history, the UK. important fuel in the country’s energy balance. For these reasons alone, the Economic recession and future of UK gas supply and demand natural gas demand in should be considered as extremely important issues by a range of energy Europe: what happened stakeholders. Most of the White in 2008–2010? Papers, roadmaps, and scenarios published over the past decade, This paper, by Anouk Honoré, setting ever more challenging targets published in January 2011, was a for carbon reduction over the next companion piece to her book European several decades, suggest that UK gas Natural Gas Demand, Supply, and demand will start to decline during the Pricing: Cycles, Seasons, and the Impact of 2010s and fall away rapidly thereafter. LNG Price Arbitrage. It offers a statistical Those concerned about security of gas update on gas demand since the book supply, which is routinely equated was finished, explaining the impacts of 2011 Annual Report 19

both economic recession and recovery, for many countries in this region. and the cold temperatures in winters However, the small-scale demand of 2008/9 and 2009/10. The main text these countries also provides them with provides some concise analysis on gas opportunities to consider similarly demand trends and the main sectors sized supply diversification and of consumption. The appendices give demand management solutions. While additional statistical details by country. multi-billion Euro pipelines bringing 10–30 Bcm/year of Caspian gas to The main conclusions were: 1/ Natural and through the region have tended gas demand in Europe will recover to dominate the headlines, smaller- progressively, but not necessarily scale solutions such as interconnectors faster than expected, although cold with reverse flow, floating LNG temperatures at the beginning and regasification facilities, and additional the end of 2010 will have boosted gas storage could provide more demand; and 2/ Although the impact immediate and affordable solutions. of cold temperatures should not be confused with underlying recovery, Elusive Potential: Natural signs of economic improvement Gas Consumption in the CIS and, as a consequence, signs of a slow recovery of gas demand in and the Quest for Efficiency 2010, enhanced by temperature effects, is the overall picture. Most publications on CIS gas focus on supply and trade issues, but Security of Gas Supply in with consumption greater than South Eastern Europe: any geographical region other than North America, CIS gas demand is Potential Contribution of an important and much neglected Planned Pipelines, LNG, research issue. Lack of public and Storage domain data, and major differences between published sources (Russian This research, by Anastasios and western), possibly relating to Giamouridis and Spiros Paleoyannis, definitions and/or measurement, published in July 2011, focuses on the means that discovery and selection gas markets of south-eastern Europe, of historical data is a large part of the which were those most directly research task. Accordingly, much of this affected (in terms of consumers who paper is focused on trying to establish actually lost their gas, power, or a statistical basis from which analysis heat supply) by the Russia–Ukraine can proceed, along with identification crisis of January 2009. While these of gaps in data, disagreements between countries represent a small percentage different sources, and the extent to of European gas demand, this is which reconciliation is possible. outweighed by the importance of ensuring that their future gas Given the fact that when the Soviet supplies can be assured through a Union broke up it was one of the least mix of diversified pipeline and LNG efficient economies on the planet, supplies, new interconnections, the generalization, for the two post- storage, and efficiency measures. Soviet decades, that conservation and efficiency measures should yield huge One of the challenges in undertaking energy and gas savings, has been this research in the wake of the uncontroversial. The problem is that European recession of 2008/9 was the actual results have been modest that a combination of reduced both in absolute terms and certainly energy demand and financial crisis in relation to theoretical potential. had rendered future gas and energy Simon Pirani’s study investigates demand prospects, as well as financial the reasons for this relative failure capacity to support large-scale capital and what may need to happen to investments, particularly uncertain produce greater success in future. 20 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

This is the most recent paper on CIS The Transition to Hub-Based gas issues from the OIES Natural Gas Gas Pricing in Continental Research Programme following Simon Pirani’s edited book covering the entire Europe region, Simon’s subsequent paper on the impact of economic recession and In this research, published in March financial crisis, and papers on various 2011, Jonathan Stern and Howard gas contracts and crises between Russia Rogers argue that Continental and western CIS countries. It is the first European gas markets are moving piece of research to focus on the detail inexorably from oil-linked to hub- of gas demand, a hugely important based pricing. Market prices for part of the complex matrix of CIS gas increasingly reflect a complex gas issues which forms an important combination of national, regional, part of the global gas picture. This and global supply and demand for study was published in July 2011. gas rather than oil products. An increasingly competitive European The Spanish Gas Market: gas market, created by third party Demand Trends Post access enforced by a combination of EU and national regulations, means Recession and Consequences that any supplier refusing to supply for the Industry gas at hub prices will lose customers. The commercial risk for utilities which In this paper, published in August are importing gas at oil-linked prices 2011, Anouk Honoré argues that the under long-term contracts but forced outlook for the Spanish gas market to sell at market prices has become needs to be completely reassessed untenable. The European gas industry as a result of the impact of recession is in the early stages of a commercial and the rapid increase in renewable paradigm shift away from oil-linked (mainly wind) energy and hydropower. and towards hub-based pricing. This Utilization levels of CCGTs fell is likely to be accompanied by major significantly post-2008, and there changes in contractual arrangements, is uncertainty whether they will including termination of many recover in future. With a significantly existing long-term contracts probably greater proportion of LNG supplies involving significant litigation. in total gas demand than most other countries, this means that Spanish Does Natural Gas Need companies must find markets for a Decarbonization surplus LNG for the next several years. Strategy? The Cases of the From the late 1990s up to 2008 the Netherlands and the UK Spanish gas market grew at double digit rates every year; these growth The proposition that natural gas rates had been expected to continue could be a ‘transition fuel’ has until the mid 2010s. This study on been frequently used in previous Spain, which uses similar bottom-up years by the gas industry when methodology to that set out in Dr addressing the future outlook of Honoré’s book European Natural Gas gas. The main arguments are its Demand, Supply, and Pricing: Cycles, (relatively) low emissions compared Seasons, and the Impact of LNG Price to other fossil fuels, high efficiency in Arbitrage, takes a closer look at what power generation, and the ability to has changed post-2008. The Spanish accommodate intermittent renewable gas market has potential lessons for capacity. The term transition fuel many other European countries, in implies a certain end date, depending particular the over-contracting of gas on the timeframe of this transition. The supplies as a consequence of previous proposition of being a ‘destination fuel’ (much higher) demand projections. could give natural gas an even stronger foothold in future energy supply. 2011 Annual Report 21

However, are these propositions This paper provides an excellent supported by verifiable developments summary of recent history and is an around gas and government policies? immensely useful guide to the issues In other words, how viable or credible which will determine how these are these claims for a long-term role negotiations may unfold, hopefully to for gas? This research by Floris van a successful conclusion, in the future. Foreest, published in May 2011, Should negotiations fail, or be delayed examines the viability and credibility for several more years, this could of these propositions in relation to have significant consequences for two of Europe’s biggest gas markets: the availability of gas in Eurasia and the UK and the Netherlands. One the Pacific region, and therefore this conclusion is that the gas industry paper has significant relevance for gas has yet to convince other energy markets beyond these two countries. industry stakeholders and analysts. Although many in the sector believe Domestic Gas Prices in that the gas industry has a good Russia – Towards Export story to tell in relation to its future in a low-carbon economy, its public Netback? pronouncements are filled with assertions about the advantages of The announcement in 2006 that gas but an absence of commitments to Russian domestic gas prices would decarbonize and little recognition of be raised to European netback levels the importance of such commitments. by 2011 caused much excitement both within and outside Russia. The The Pricing Debate over reality has been less dramatic, but as Russian Gas Exports to China Jim Henderson ably demonstrates, this is partly because of completely Russian pipeline gas exports to China unforeseen developments in European have been one of the most anticipated gas pricing, largely driven by higher global gas trades since the end of oil price levels than anyone believed the cold war. There have been many possible five years previously. suggested projects, many meetings of presidents and prime ministers, and Continued liberalization of the gas many false dawns, but so far agreement market and gas pricing in Russia – has proved elusive. The difference, as even if this takes another ten years we enter the 2010s, is that this bilateral to complete – will have significant trade has potential significance far consequences for Russian exports to beyond the borders of the countries Europe (and potentially elsewhere). themselves. The longer it takes these As Europeans contemplate significant two countries to agree on the terms changes to their own method of gas for bilateral gas trade, the greater pricing, changes in the same direction the likelihood that China will opt to in the Russian gas market (albeit on a import larger volumes of central Asian longer time scale) could create new and pipeline gas and Pacific Basin LNG. different linkages between the markets.

The major stumbling block to Sino- As this paper, published in November Russian gas trade has seemed, over the 2011, argues persuasively, depending past five years, to be disagreement over on the evolution of pricing in the pricing. But James Henderson’s paper, different markets, Europe could find published in September 2011, suggests itself in competition for gas supplies that, while this is certainly a significant with the Russian domestic and CIS issue, there are other fundamental markets. These issues will increasingly disagreements between the countries, demand attention in both Russia and notably involving the initial source of Europe, perhaps as much attention the gas to be exported, the question as the political and strategic aspects of loans for development, and equity of the subject which have for so ownership of gas and infrastructure. long dominated public discourse. 22 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The Transit Dimension of prices. That paper, written before the EU Energy Security: Russian unconventional gas revolution had become conventional wisdom, when Gas Transit Across Ukraine, Henry Hub prices were well above $6/ Belarus, and Moldova mmbtu and had recently been in the $10–15/mmbtu range, suggested that a This book by Katja Yafimava was reasonable expectation of a price range published by Oxford University during the period up to 2015 would Press in November 2011. Discussion be $3–6/mmbtu. This was greeted of the role of Russian energy and with considerable scepticism at a time natural gas supplies in European when large numbers of regasification markets has generated a substantial terminals were under construction in body of work by academics, policy preparation for imports of high-priced makers, journalists, and bloggers LNG, but has thus far proved to be which gathered pace after the absolutely correct. As a result, only 2006 Russia–Ukraine gas crisis a fraction of the LNG destined for and reached a crescendo in the those terminals has been delivered. wake of the January 2009 crisis. In 2011, conventional wisdom, This is the first book to provide an in- as expressed by the US Energy depth analysis of both the attempts of Information Administration, is that the EU markets to diversify supplies Henry Hub Prices will stay at around to reduce dependence on Russian $4/mmbtu at least for the rest of gas, and the legal and regulatory this decade and not rise significantly aspects of energy supply and transit, above $6/mmbtu until around 2030. given the contractual rights and Yet how likely is this to be correct? obligations of the parties involved. Is it really the case that the costs of This extremely complex set of issues shale gas production, and of the became increasingly important production of associated gas from during the 2000s. No other work has shale oil, will remain at such low levels combined this breadth of scope with for a considerable period of time? a similar depth of research on the And if so, might there be a market transit countries and their contractual response, both in terms of increased gas and transportation relationships domestic demand and a plethora of with Russia, utilizing such a wide US LNG export terminals? These are range of original source material in the questions addressed in this paper. all of the languages of the region. The relevance of Henry Hub prices for For these reasons, this is the most gas stakeholders worldwide means important study thus far published that the need for research and informed for anyone wishing to understand opinion is more important than ever. the full range of issues – economic, Over the past two decades, the North political, contractual, legal, and American gas developments have regulatory – behind the problems surprised us many times, and are of the transit of Russian gas to likely to continue to do so in the future. Europe during the 2000s. The substance of this working paper, published in December 2011, will form The Outlook for U.S. Gas one of the chapters in the forthcoming Prices in 2020: Henry book The Pricing of Internationally Traded Gas to be published by the Gas Hub at $3 or $10 ? Programme in the second half of 2012.

The international relevance of Henry Hub prices was already recognized in early 2007 when Michelle Foss wrote her first paper for the Gas Programme on North American gas 2011 Annual Report 23

The Impact of a Globalizing they do to their own regional supply, Market on Future European demand, and pricing dynamics. Gas Supply and Pricing: The Natural Gas Price Volatility in Importance of Asian Demand the UK and North America and North American Supply Sofya Alterman made contact with The shale revolution in North America, the Natural Gas Research Programme the economic recession in Europe, in 2010 while undertaking a project the Arab Spring, and the Fukushima on LNG as part of her Harvard MBA. nuclear incident in Japan provide This working paper on natural gas examples of events which have had price volatility is the result of her impacts on gas supply, demand, and subsequent research at the OIES pricing far beyond their immediate during July and August 2011. geographical regions. While this clearly demonstrates an increasing Lacking a commonly understood ‘connectedness’, the current stage of definition, volatility is an often over- development of international gas trade generalized term with different cannot be compared with the global meanings to different constituencies. oil market. This said, the increasing This should not detract from the ‘globalization’ of gas – the fact that importance of volatility. To traders European gas stakeholders need to volatility is a source of revenue, to pay increasing attention to what is energy-intensive industrial end- happening in both North America users it is often perceived as a and Asia – marks a new phase in the threat. Midstream utilities actively development of natural gas which our work to manage volatility in order research needs to take into account. to deliver a ‘dampened’ price offer to end-user customers. This study, by Howard Rogers, uses the model and methodology developed In this working paper, published in in his previous studies to analyse February 2012, Sofya summarizes the different scenarios of North American insights from an analysis of natural gas production and Asian demand over gas, crude oil, and oil products price the next 15 years, showing how these time series to answer the questions could create fundamentally different ‘are natural gas prices inherently outcomes for European supply, more volatile than those of oil?’ demand, and pricing. This highlights and the more challenging question the relative parochialism of much ‘can episodes of markedly different European gas commentary which, gas price volatility be explained by over the past decade, has concentrated underlying market fundamentals?’ on security issues relatively narrowly Sofya’s research involved a painstaking defined as dependence on Russian gas analysis of 14 years-worth of daily supplies. This study also examines price data, along with the investigation the impact on Russian gas supply of the likely drivers of the volatility and pricing to Europe, of different patterns uncovered. Her results both scenario outcomes in North America confirm the relevance of obvious and Asia, showing that Gazprom may drivers, but also show how these also have to make uncomfortable can be blunted or offset by other choices between volume and pricing of compensating effects, some of which European exports over the next decade are less widely acknowledged. This research is particularly timely as The innovative aspect of the research, trading hub development continues published in January 2012, is that it apace in continental Europe. shows that in a globalizing gas market, Europeans need to pay as much attention to what is happening in gas markets elsewhere in the world as 24 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Will There be a Shale Gas shale gas revolution is likely to take Revolution in China by 2020 ? much longer than expected and is unlikely to be accomplished by 2020. With continued strong growth in Chinese demand for gas expected Shale: The Unfolding Story for the foreseeable future, China will continue to focus on attracting pipeline In the early 2000s US gas production gas and LNG imports, but also on was in slow but steady decline despite developing its domestic natural gas increasing drilling activity. As US resources. A 2011 EIA survey assessed natural gas prices rose in response to China’s shale gas resource potential the resulting tight market, the only to be larger than that of the USA. This supply-side solution appeared to lie in being the case, it could reasonably be the development of liquefied natural anticipated that China would emerge gas (LNG) projects in the Middle East as a significant shale gas producer. and Africa for importation to the North American market. Almost unnoticed This research by Fan Gao, to be in its early stages, the US shale gas published in April 2012, suggests that phenomenon gathered momentum such expectations could be premature. from 2004 onwards through the China’s experience in developing combination and application of two its vast coal bed methane (CBM) proven technologies, namely horizontal potential over the past few decades drilling and pressure-induced have been disappointing, partly due hydraulic fracturing or ‘fracking’. to a lack of investment in resource The pioneers of this approach were assessment, but also due to a lack of not the majors but the much smaller, enthusiasm by coal and hydrocarbon- domestically focused ‘independent’ producing Chinese NOC’s for whom upstream companies who, together CBM was viewed as a ‘non-core’ with a well-established and adaptable business. The unwillingness to service sector, instigated what is now provide an appropriate participation commonly referred to as the ‘shale framework to attract and apply gas boom’ and which has increased international technology and know- US natural gas production to the how is also identified as a key failing. point where only minimal imports of LNG are expected to be required The early stages of Chinese shale gas for the foreseeable future. This paper exploitation appear to highlight similar by Howard Rogers, published in problems. A role for IOC’s and US Oxford Review of Economic Policy, independents appears to be confined to Volume 27, Issue 1, Spring 2011, joint studies and technology exchange, looks at the genesis of the US shale with little indication of an incentivized gas industry, the intensive nature of long-term investment framework. its operations, and the factors which China’s policy of encouraging smaller have underpinned its success to domestic companies to transition date. It also addresses the question into a successful dynamic shale gas of whether similar developments producing sector is currently hampered might be expected in Europe and by a lack of resource evaluation, a what specific challenges would need slow pace of acreage award, and a to be overcome. In a world where lack of financial capability on the increased LNG supply has created part of the companies themselves. trade flow and price linkages between The upstream service sector, which regional gas markets, the paper played a key role in the US shale gas also examines the impact US shale story, is not characterized in China by production has had on other markets dynamic competition and innovation. through the re-direction of LNG Starting from this position, with an originally intended for the US market. apparent strong desire to ‘re-create a US shale boom without direct transfer of technology and know-how’ China’s 2011 Annual Report 25

Natural Gas Markets in the Iraq and Israel could become modest Middle East and North Africa exporters of gas but (aside from Qatar) the general outlook for exports This book was published in March from the region is relatively bleak. 2011. It is the first academic book in any language to provide a This multi-author book was edited comprehensive analysis on the gas by Bassam Fattouh and Jonathan supply, demand, and trade prospects Stern. The authors of the chapters for the Middle East and North Africa are: ‘Algeria’s Natural Gas Market’, region, which accounts for 40 per cent Hakim Darbouche; ‘The Libyan Gas of the world’s proven gas reserves. Industry’, Waniss A. Otman; ‘The Role The main conclusion of the book is of Natural Gas in North African Transit that the majority of the countries are Countries’, Waniss A. Otman and encountering increasingly serious Hakim Darbouche; ‘Egypt’s Natural problems in meeting increasing Gas Market’, Hakim Darbouche and domestic gas demand, mainly for Robert Mabro; ‘The Mashreq, Israel, power generation but also for new and the Palestinian Territories’, petrochemical projects. Despite huge Andrew Cleary; ‘The Saudi Gas Sector reserves, countries are struggling and its Role in Industrialization’, to cope with demand growth of 6–7 Bassam Fattouh; ‘Natural Gas in Iraq’, per cent per annum, partly resulting Lorian Yacoub and Ian Rutledge; ‘The from very low domestic prices – Iranian Gas Industry’, Siamak Adibi which are one-third to one-sixth of and Fereidun Fesharaki; ‘Qatar’s Gas the cost of new domestic production, Revolution’, Justin Dargin; ‘LNG in and an even smaller fraction of the Qatar’, Andy Flower; ‘Natural Gas price of internationally traded gas. in Oman’, David Ledesma; ‘The UAE Gas Sector’, Justin Dargin and Andy This situation is causing countries, Flower; ‘Natural Gas in Bahrain and including those which have Kuwait’, Randa Alami; ‘Natural Gas traditionally been exporters, to – A Lifeline for Yemen’, Franz Gerner import pipeline gas and LNG. Middle and Silvana Tordo; and ‘Conclusion’, East and North African countries Bassam Fattouh and Jonathan Stern. urgently need to raise domestic gas prices to at least cost-based and Algeria’s shifting gas export eventually to internationally traded strategy: Between policy levels, a task which would have been extremely difficult even prior and market constraints to the recent political upheavals in the region, but which now seems Given the importance of Algeria as a beyond either existing or new supplier of gas and LNG to Europe, governments. Failure to increase there is a surprising lack of accessible prices will either cause subsidies (and research on the country’s industry and hence financial deficits) to increase to prospects. This research by Hakim unmanageable levels or a future of Darbouche, published in March 2011, increasingly serious power shortages. analyses the main drivers of Algeria’s gas export strategy since the early The only exception to these general 2000s. It argues that, after suffering a trends will be Qatar, already the series of setbacks owing to the policy largest LNG exporter in the world, inconsistencies of the administration but where growth potential beyond of former energy minister Chakib current projects is uncertain. Saudi Khelil, Algeria’s gas export strategy Arabia may continue its current policy now faces a number of constraints of no imports/no exports, but only at as a result of changing market the expense of increasing use of oil in conditions. The situation inherited by power generation. Algerian exports the new leadership at Sonatrach and will continue to grow slowly but will the Algerian energy ministry leaves peak before the end of this decade. limited options for the optimization 26 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

of Algeria’s gas exports in the short- and interpret information on the to medium-term. Up to about 2014, subject of electricity and gas prices, the maximization of the value of markets, and margins. This work is available exports is highly likely to shortly to be published by IPPR and take precedence over the preservation it is likely that John will prepare an of market share, while large parts of OIES Comment on their research at the country’s gas export infrastructure that time. The subject continues to will be under-utilized for most of be a controversial one, but is also the 2010s. To address this situation, relevant to broader considerations of decision makers in Algeria will have power sector structure and regulation to take meaningful action to improve discussed below in the context of EMR. the gas supply–demand balance. The GCC Regional International Gas Markets Electricity Market Despite generalizations to the contrary, The GCC countries have experienced there is as yet no ‘global natural gas tremendous economic growth over market’, but as regional markets the past decade as a result of high become more interconnected, natural windfall revenues from their oil and gas can be said to be ‘globalizing’. natural gas exports. At the same time, This chapter in A Technical and Legal the region’s own energy consumption, Guide to the Global Hydrocarbons including that of electricity, has risen Markets, published by Stronachs in fast, leading to various capacity 2011, looks at the following regions: bottlenecks in the short term, with North America, Europe, Russia and recurrent electricity outages along the CIS, Middle East and North Africa, Gulf coast for consecutive summers at some of the major Asian countries; and times of peak demand. In this context, at international LNG developments. it has been noteworthy that one of The aim, when tackling these huge the GCC’s most recent mega-projects, subjects, has been to focus on their the GCC Interconnection Grid, went likely impact on international gas online in July 2009 with its first phase. trade. The aim of the chapter is to The GCC Grid is aimed at enabling give the reader some insight into the the opening of a regional market for main gas issues of most of the major electricity, with various potential regions but also the problems of benefits for GCC electricity supply expanding LNG and pipeline gas trade security, as well as economic benefits. on an increasingly global basis. This In this paper, Laura El-Katiri tried chapter is a multi-author work from answering the question of to what the staff of the Natural Gas Research extent intra-GCC electricity trading Programme at the OIES. Jonathan Stern could potentially be part of a mid- to wrote the introduction, Asian section, long-term solution for the GCC states conclusions, and was responsible in increasing their electricity sectors’ for overall editing of the chapter. supply security as well as their market The authors of the other sections efficiency. She concludes that potential are: Florence Gény – North America, for commercial trade in electricity Anouk Honoré – Europe, Simon Pirani between the GCC states does exist, but – Russia and CIS, Hakim Darbouche various features of national electricity – Middle East and North Africa, markets in the GCC mean this potential Howard Rogers – LNG developments. is likely to materialize only in the long term. Until then, the GCC Grid Profit margins in remains an expensive but strategically energy supply useful piece of infrastructure, which may one day form the backbone of a During 2011 John Rhys had the more integrated, regional market. opportunity to work with the Institute for Public Policy Research, advising them on how to gather 2011 Annual Report 27

Electricity market reform smart meters, energy efficiency, and the role of renewable energies. Electricity market reform (EMR) continues to be a major issue for UK Electric Vehicles government in seeking to implement the decarbonization of the power David Robinson has begun a sector by the substitution of alternative research project on the potential forms of electricity generation to market for electric vehicles. The replace fossil fuel burning, which is central question he addresses is what itself the central plank of UK policy to potential they have to influence mitigate climate change with ambitious world oil demand and CO2 emission medium- and long-term emissions reductions. He published a first reduction targets. It is controversial article on this subject in the February largely because it signals the need 2010 Oxford Energy Forum. for major changes to the liberalized market framework introduced in the Expanding the European UK in 1990, hitherto widely regarded Dimension in energy as an exemplar for the structure and regulation of the industry. John Rhys policy: the Commission’s has previously worked to influence the latest initiative Committee on Climate Change, inter alia, on this subject and to demonstrate The European Commission has the potential weaknesses of current broken new ground in proposing to market structures and the alternative streamline national planning approval approaches that might be adopted. of vital energy infrastructure, use This has included submission of EU funds to leverage private finance comments, inter alia, to DECC and for such networks, and to negotiate other consultations on this subject. foreign pipelines on the EU’s behalf. Its scope implicitly includes issues These initiatives coincide awkwardly associated with the EU emissions with the eurozone crisis. But David trading scheme, as well as general Buchan broadly endorses Brussels’ issues of how a future power sector attempt to kick-start implementation will operate, and the nature of of Europe’s 2020 energy and climate domestic demand. This research is goals. He suggests the Commission now leading on to examination, with go a step further by taking advantage Malcolm Keay and David Robinson, of the forthcoming treaty revision to of how current EMR proposals might propose a constitutional amendment be implemented and some of the on EU states’ energy mix. This paper alternatives that might be proposed. Its was published in October 2011. importance extends well beyond the UK, since many other countries will be US Energy and Climate facing very similar issues, and the UK’s Change Policy policies will be watched very closely. David Robinson’s project examines Domestic electricity demand the critical importance of coal-based generation as a source of greenhouse John Rhys continues to devote some gas emissions, and analyses the research time to looking at aspects difficulties in cutting these emissions. of energy storage and domestic The central argument is that the US demand. In 2011 OIES participated in coal and electricity lobbies were some (so far unsuccessful in funding instrumental in stopping the passage terms) potential joint (with Oxford of federal climate change legislation in University) ventures and proposals 2009–10. Although this was considered related to electricity demand. This a victory by these lobbies, the absence topic continues to have direct of legislation has arguably worsened relevance in a variety of contexts, the prospects for coal and coal-based including EMR, smart grids and electricity in the USA, and has had 28 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

other problematic implications. Government adopted a proposal First, the USA has lost a large part from the paper, namely to sign an of its credibility and influence in MOU with China to collaborate international negotiations over climate in the development of renewable change. Second, important parts of the and alternative energies. The US economy, notably those involving Spain–China MOU contributed ‘clean coal’ technologies like CCS, and to global commercial agreements related services, have been weakened between Spanish companies and as result of diminished demand in the Chinese companies in the wind USA and less financial support from sector. The evidence of success with the public and private sector. Third, the this combination of political and absence of US legislation has facilitated commercial agreements was used by the growth of ‘unabated’ coal- the British Government and the EU based generation around the world, to encourage China to support the noticeably in China and India. This sort of comprehensive global climate research will lead to an OIES book. agreement that emerged in Durban. Balanced Clean Development Climate Change Negotiations in China – Climate Change Dr Benito Müller continued his This research project is part of the research on issues related to the climate OIES project on Balanced Clean change negotiations, with a particular Development in China. David focus on the work of the Transitional Robinson and Benito Müller carried Committee (TC) for the design of the out a study on the potential for EU– Green Climate Fund (GCF), because Chinese large-scale collaboration of his role as adviser to the Least to reduce CO2 emissions in the Developed Country TC members. Chinese power sector. The project In that context he produced, among is finished and the report was other things, four OIES submissions launched at the UNFCCC meeting to the TC pertaining to the use of in Tianjin in October 2010. devolved national climate trust funds (National Funding Entities), The central issue in the research is which were subsequently included to identify barriers preventing large- in the design of the GCF. He also scale collaboration to promote zero worked on the general governance emission technologies in China, and to of the global climate finance system, seek to lower those barriers through and the future of the Kyoto Protocol an EU–Chinese high-level agreement, in a legally binding regime. specifically related to wind power. CO2 emissions from David Robinson has developed energy use: the third the argument further, writing and speaking about the potential for energy transition agreements involving China to accelerate decarbonization on a global There have been only three basis by driving down the costs of fundamental energy transitions in low-carbon technologies. He has human history; the discovery of fire, spoken at a number of conferences the industrial revolution, and the on the topic, including in Bern transition currently under way to (Switzerland) and Dalian (China) in low-carbon energy. This research, by 2011. He has been asked to speak on Malcolm Keay, looks into the nature this topic at a conference in Istanbul of the present transition, how it can be (Turkey) in April 2012, and is preparing effected, and what its consequences an OIES paper on the subject. might be. The first module looks mainly at the past; the main output The research has had policy was a paper published electronically implications. In 2010, the Spanish in November 2007, entitled ‘Energy: 2011 Annual Report 29

the Long View’ which examined the science of climate change, which long-term energy developments emphasizes the cumulative stock of (those taking place over hundreds of CO2 in the atmosphere, and much of years) in order to help identify the the policy discussion and associated basic drivers of energy demand and economic analysis. This was the subject the associated emissions. The second of an OIES Working Paper in July module, currently under way, looks 2011. John has subsequently reviewed in more detail at whether existing and commented on current Treasury policies to reduce CO2 emissions guidelines, which he believes carry the are properly targeted on significant risk of significant distortions to policy. emissions drivers and on the areas where intervention can make a major Complementarity difference. One direct output from this of CCS and EOR research was a paper ‘Energy efficiency – should we take it seriously?’ in David Robinson is carrying out December 2011. The third module will research on the complementarity look forward, at the implications of the between carbon capture and storage shift for the energy sector and society (CCS) and enhanced oil recovery more widely and involves, among (EOR) projects. On the one hand, CCS other things, analysis of possible is considered as critical in the fight to options for electricity market reform, deal with climate change; but there on which Malcolm Keay published is very slow progress in developing two comment pieces in 2011. the technology at scale, and some important demonstration projects Two further projects related to this have been cancelled. On the other research are: a contribution on the hand, EOR is an important means links between energy efficiency of increasing global recoverable oil and energy security for a study of reserves, and should become more Energy Security in a Multipolar World, attractive as oil prices rise; but there a major interdisciplinary project has been very little EOR outside of under the aegis of the UK Energy North America. The research illustrates Research Council; and acting as lead that EOR can provide a source of author of a chapter on electricity revenue and CO2 storage for CCS market reform in the UK and the projects, and that CCS projects can tension between free markets and provide CO2 for EOR. It also identifies environmental objectives, for a the key barriers that are slowing this proposed multi-author publication mutually beneficial development. surveying recent global developments in relation to electricity liberalization. David participated in a UNFCCC technical workshop in Abu Dhabi Valuation of social cost in September 2011 that defined of CO emissions the requirements to enable CCS to 2 receive funding under the Clean Valuations of the social cost of CO2 Development Mechanism of the emissions are routinely used to UNFCCC. He presented a paper on guide government departments in the complementarity of CCS and EOR appraising policy initiatives and in Dalian (China) in October 2011. projects, and in applying cost benefit analysis to a variety of projects and Prospects for Wind Energy policies. Valuations are set by HM in Colombia Treasury in consultation with relevant departments. It is therefore a critical David Robinson is directing an OIES component of an effective policy to project (funded by the UK FCO mitigate climate change. John Rhys has Prosperity Fund) on the potential for identified, in a view shared by many private investment in wind power in climate scientists, what he considers Colombia under the current regulatory to be a serious inconsistency between framework. The project analyses how 30 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

wind power and other intermittent renewables should be compensated for their contribution to electricity system reliability, especially during periods of el Niño, when hydro generation is severely limited. How reliability is measured has an important impact on the profitability of wind power. We show that the current regulation underestimates that contribution. However, even when the contribution to reliability is properly measured, wind power is unattractive for private investors under the existing ‘technology neutral’ regulatory framework. The question for the Colombian Government is whether they wish to actively ‘promote’ wind and other renewable sources of power, as other countries like Peru have done, or to wait until these technologies are competitive without special treatment. If they decide to wait, then we recommend that they at least level the competitive playing field by (a) compensating properly the contribution of intermittent renewables to system reliability and (b) tax or otherwise take account of the negative externalities (in other words, the environmental and social costs) of large hydro and coal projects.

The aim of the study is to offer ideas to the Colombian Government on possible regulatory reform. The draft report has been sent to the Ministry of the Environment, the energy regulator (CREG), and potential investors in the energy sector. The report will be presented at a workshop at the British Embassy in Bogota in May. The OIES will publish the findings of the report. There may be a follow up research project to develop some of the ideas and proposals that have been introduced. 2011 Annual Report 31

Journals and Website In addition to its ongoing research Website – programmes, the Institute publishes www.oxfordenergy.org a debating journal and hosts an increasingly popular website. These The redesigned website was launched activities not only help meet our in 2011. Its new design should make goal as an educational charity, but using the site easier and quicker also complement our research and to use; a bookshop was added for place us at the centre of important visitors to buy publications, and debates within the field of energy. the Oxford Energy Forum was launched as an online addition. Oxford Energy Forum The site contains full information The Institute’s quarterly debating on OIES presentations, publications journal, now in its twenty-second and published articles, research in year, continues to tackle topical issues progress, and staff. The Comment facing the energy world. During the section provides an assessment, by year, issues covered have included: members of the research staff, of political events in the Middle East important energy events. The Natural and their impact on energy; WTI and Gas Programme and the Oil and Brent benchmarks; nuclear power the Middle East Programme have post-Fukushima; and technological dedicated sections within the main site. challenges, developments, and breakthroughs in the global oil and During 2011 the catalogue of working gas industry. Our thanks go to the papers, energy comments, and authors of all articles that appeared presentations on the Institute’s website in OEF in 2011, to Bassam Fattouh continued to grow. The site now holds the editor, and to our guest editors. more than 200 working papers along with over 200 presentations and energy comments, all of which are freely available to download. Subscriptions to the Institute’s email notification service continued to increase. 32 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Lectures and Seminars As part of its mandate to promote institutes, and other research scholarly cooperation between energy organizations. The twenty-second such producers and consumers, and its meeting was held in June this year in commitment to education, the Institute Nice, France with the kind support of strives to disseminate the results of Schlumberger. Over 40 participants its research as widely as possible. engaged in lively discussions on a wide The lectures and seminars enable the range of energy issues including the Institute’s researchers to present the global economic outlook and risks, the findings of completed projects and oil and refining sectors, oil supply and to subject work in progress to the demand, LNG and natural gas, climate criticism of colleagues in industry, change and carbon trading, alternative government, and academia. They also energy, the future of nuclear power, help the Institute to introduce itself and geopolitics with a focus on MENA. to new audiences and to promote recently published monographs 2011 Gas Day and books. In 2011 the Institute’s Research Fellows, its Programme The Institute’s Natural Gas Programme Directors, and its Director gave organized its sixth annual ‘Gas Day’ over 90 lectures, presentations, in November 2011 to discuss current and talks at various conferences, issues in natural gas including workshops, seminars, and meetings. ‘2011 to 2015; Is the Gas Glut over?’, concentrating on Europe, Russia/ Energy Lectures CIS, Asian LNG Markets, and North America. Also discussed The Geopolitics of Energy seminar was ‘Post 2015/2020 – The Longer series, run in association with St Term’, covering presentations by Antony’s College, Oxford, and guest speakers including ‘The Third organized by Dr Shamil Yenikeyeff, ran Package’, ‘US LNG Exports’, and ‘The during Hilary, Trinity, and Michaelmas Fukushima Effect’. The day ended with terms in 2011. The series focused on a discussion on ‘How Others See Us the role played by geopolitics in the – the Real Advocacy Challenge’ with energy sector. Lectures given included, presentations from the energy utility Geopolitics of Middle Eastern and North and power generator RWE, Greenpeace African energy supplies by Dr Bassam Germany, and the Rt Hon. Malcolm Fattouh and Dr Hakim Darbouche; Wicks MP. The Seminar, held at St Geopolitics of unconventional gas by Anne’s College, Oxford, was attended Florence Gény, Statoil; Geopolitics of by 85 people, including sponsors Climate Change by Dr Benito Müller; of the Natural Gas Programme and and Geopolitics of Caspian Energy: A the Institute, and invited guests. view from Britain by Mr Angus Miller, Caspian Energy Adviser, Foreign Gas Programme & Commonwealth Office, UK. Our Sponsors Meeting thanks go to all those who gave lectures in 2011. The programme for The Institute’s Natural Gas Programme 2012 is currently being planned. held its biannual Sponsors’ Meetings on 12 and 13 April and 2 November XXII Brainstorming at St. Hugh’s College, Oxford. The meetings were attended by the Since 1990 the Institute has been Natural Gas Programme Sponsors holding an annual brainstorming and authors of the Programme from a meeting, which draws together people range of countries and backgrounds: from producing and consuming academia, industry, and journalism. countries, national and private oil Ongoing research projects and companies, governments, financial progress reports were discussed. 2011 Annual Report 33

The April meeting discussed the project on global gas pricing, the transition to hub-based gas pricing in continental Europe, Russian & CIS gas consumption, transit issues, security of gas supply in south- eastern Europe, the impact of political change in north Africa, the UK natural gas market, Spanish market developments, and Chinese shale gas.

The November meeting focused on a review of chapters/working papers on pricing, CIS pricing, pricing in sub-Saharan Africa/ MENA, political economy of pricing in gas-rich countries, LNG pricing in Asia: JCC forever?/south-east Asia, pricing of pipeline gas & LNG in Latin America, gas pricing in China, gas vs oil price volatility, interconnection of different gas markets, and longer term gas demand in Europe post nuclear moratoria. 34 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Library The Institute’s library is its most policy to maintain the collection as a valuable research tool. In 2011, the valuable research tool and to ensure Institute continued to expand its it is as widely accessible as possible. collection through the addition of some 30 volumes. The library has in The Institute would like to offer excess of 13,000 titles, comprising thanks to: Blackwell’s, Elsevier, one of the world’s foremost public Energy Intelligence Group, the collections of books, journals, and European Commission, ICEED, IEA, statistical sources within its specialist IFS, IMF, Gas Matters, Global Market subject area. In addition, around Briefings, the Middle East Economic 150 journals and annuals, many of a Survey, OAPEC, OPEC, OECD, statistical nature, were received either Oxford University Press, Petroleum through subscription or donation. Argus, Petroleum Intelligence, for There are now lengthy back files of supplying, either free of charge or some of these serial publications. at a significantly discounted price, The library also receives over 30 important trade journals, statistical company reports each year. sources, and other materials vital to our research work which could The Institute has been fortunate not have been afforded otherwise. in being able to acquire historical materials from a number of sources. In 1984 the Institute purchased the library from Walter J. Levy’s London office. Since then, the Institute has acquired other materials from the late Professor Edith Penrose, and from both the Middle East Centre and the Latin American Centre, at St Antony’s College. In 1988 Shell generously donated an extensive collection of periodicals to the library. During 1992 Walter Greaves kindly donated many items from his library. In 1993 John Mitchell donated material that he had collected over many years. Historical statistics are of obvious use in research; other publications that may seem no longer useful to commercial companies could still be of worth to the Institute. In 2001 Jim Jensen, former President of Jensen Associates, retired and sold his library. The Institute purchased a number of his books and journals for its collection.

The Institute is always interested to hear from companies that are clearing space on their shelves, in case they have material that would fill an important gap in its collection. The library is used not only by staff, but also by students from Oxford and other universities, and by researchers from abroad. It remains the Institute’s 2011 Annual Report 35

Research Team and Staff Christopher Allsopp CBE, was Upstream Profits and Taxes in US Gulf appointed Director in January 2006; he Offshore Oil and Gas (OUP, 2006). is an Emeritus Fellow of New College, Oxford. He is author of a Review of David Buchan, Senior Research Statistics for Economic Policymaking Fellow, joined the OIES in January (the ‘Allsopp Review’). He is a former 2007. He was educated in Oxford and Member of the Monetary Policy Geneva. He started his writing career Committee (2000–3) and of the Court of in 1970 with The Economist and in 1975 Directors of the Bank of England (1997– joined the Financial Times where he 2000). He is the Editor of the Oxford remained until 2006. He was based Review of Economic Policy and a Director in Brussels, Washington DC, and of Oxford Economic Forecasting. Paris and covered energy, defence, Previous activities include working the Soviet bloc, and diplomacy. From at HM Treasury, the OECD, and 2000 to 2002 he was the FT Energy the Bank of England (where he was Editor. He has focused on the European Adviser from 1980 to 1983) as well as Commission’s attempts to kick-start extensive involvement with domestic the expansion of cross-border energy and international policy issues as infrastructure and networks, and consultant to international institutions he has recently published a paper and private sector organizations. He ‘Expanding the European dimension has published extensively on monetary, in energy policy: the Commission’s fiscal, and exchange rate issues, as well latest initiatives’. Such initiatives – as the problems of economic reform to streamline national planning for and transition. His involvement in energy projects, to use EU funds to the economics of oil and other energy leverage in more private finance, issues goes back to the shocks of the and to lead negotiations with foreign 1970s. He has been involved with the energy suppliers – are important for work of the OIES since its inception. the substance of energy policy. They are also significant for the politics of Juan Carlos Boué, Senior Research EU energy policy making, involving Fellow, is an oil industry consultant; the EU in planning and external energy he started his career working at the policy that have traditionally been the international trading arm of Petróleos preserve of the EU’s member states. Mexicanos (PEMEX). His professional David Buchan also contributed two activities have focused on petroleum, OIES comments. One, called ‘Applying alternating between academia – he belt and braces to EU energy policy’, was a Senior Research Fellow of the examined the inherent tension between OIES from 2000 to 2004 – and industry. two of Europe’s main mechanisms for From 2005 to 2009, he was special reducing carbon emissions – energy advisor to the Venezuelan minister efficiency legislation and the emissions of Energy and Petroleum and sat on trading scheme. The other, ‘Peering the boards of most of Petróleos de into the future fog of CO2 – how road Venezuela’s (PDVSA) refining ventures maps can help’, examined the plethora abroad. He has written widely on of future energy ‘road maps’ to 2050 the industrial economics of oil and put out by various directorates of the gas exploration and production, and European Commission. Such distant petroleum refining industries, as projections may seem confusing and well as on taxation and the political pointless, but road maps can help economy of oil in general. His current establish some consensus around ‘no research concerns the governance regrets’ options and therefore give mechanisms and legal structure investors some assurance about the underpinning the international oil future course of energy policy beyond industry. He is author of A Question of the time limits in today’s legislation. Rigs, of Rules, or of Rigging the Rules? He also edited the official publication 36 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

for the World Petroleum Congress international oil pricing system, OPEC meeting in Doha in December 2011. pricing power, security of Middle Among those contributing articles Eastern oil supplies, and the dynamics were Howard Rogers and David of oil prices and oil price differentials; Ledesma of the OIES Gas Programme. his articles have appeared in Energy Economics, The Energy Journal, and Hakim Darbouche, Research Fellow, Energy Policy. Bassam Fattouh has joined the OIES in April 2009. He is also published in non-energy related an expert on North Africa, focusing areas. His papers have appeared in the on energy, political economy, politics, Journal of Development Economics, Oxford and international relations, and has Review of Economic Policy, Economic published extensively on issues Inquiry, Empirical Economics, Journal relating to these themes. Prior to of Financial Intermediation, Economics joining the Institute, he served as Letters, Macroeconomic Dynamics, adviser on MENA affairs to a NATO and in other journals and books. agency in Brussels. He has a PhD in International Relations from the Andy Flower, Senior Research Fellow, University of Liverpool. In Oxford, he joined the OIES in May 2009. He is also a senior member of St. Antony’s works as an independent consultant College and a Region Head on the specializing in the LNG business. His MENA Desk at Oxford Analytica. areas of expertise include: strategy, marketing, project structures, LNG John Elkins, Research Fellow, was, shipping, pricing, LNG supply and until three years ago, managing editor demand, and project economics. He of the Gas Strategies publications retired from BP in 2001 after 32 years department, responsible for Gas of service, which included 22 years Matters, Gas Matters Today, and other involved in LNG and natural gas publications. He is still actively business activities. His last post prior involved as Associate Editor, and is a to retirement was as Senior Adviser, regular presenter at the Gas Strategies Global LNG. At various times during Gas Chain training course. He joined his career, Flower was involved in Gas Strategies as a consultant in 1995 liquefaction projects in Nigeria, Abu after leaving British Gas HQ, where Dhabi, Australia, Qatar, Indonesia, he held various posts involving and Trinidad. He has provided liaison with Regions on annual advice to companies planning LNG and peak forecasting methodology, receiving terminals in North America, and preparation of amalgamated Europe, and Asia and has negotiated national, annual, and peak supply and LNG sales contracts with buyers demand forecasts. He was Secretary in all the major LNG markets. of the Matching Panel, which advised the British Gas board on supply/ Floris van Foreest, Research Fellow, demand issues for company plans joined the OIES in October 2008. He and negotiations with Ofgas, OFT, works as strategy consultant for a and the Monopolies Commission. Dutch energy company. His main He joined the OIES in January 2008 expertise lies in the field of electricity and, in addition to editing many of market analysis, energy transition, its Gas Programme working papers, and security of gas supply. Previously, has written the paper ‘Natural Gas he held different positions at large in the UK: An Industry in Search of a multinational companies as project Policy?’, which was published in 2010. manager. His research concentrates on the role of natural gas in energy Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oil transition in the Netherlands. He and Middle East Programme, is also studied Business Economics and Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Political Science at the Universities Oxford; and Professor at the School of of Groningen and Amsterdam. Oriental and African Studies. He has published a variety of articles on the 2011 Annual Report 37

Fan Gao, Research Fellow, has been 2006. He is an economist specializing with the OIES since January 2011. in environmental and public policy. She is seconded from Statoil, where He holds Fellowships at the LSE and she works in the field of Global the University of Oxford. He was Strategy and Business Development. educated at Melbourne University in Her research currently focuses on Law and Chemical Engineering, and unconventional gas development earned his doctorate in economics (majorly shale gas) in China and its from Oxford (as a Rhodes Scholar). impacts on China’s future energy He is actively involved in public plan and global energy landscape. policy as a member of the DEFRA She is a graduate of China Foreign Academic Panel and as a founder of Affairs University with a B.A. in Vivid Economics. He contributed two English and International Studies. background research papers to the She worked in Statoil’s offices in Stern Review on the Economics of China, Norway, and the UK before Climate Change. Cameron has been this assignment with OIES. Her interviewed for TV, radio, and the main areas of expertise are upstream printed press in various countries. business development and Chinese Cameron is also a director of Climate government and political affairs. Bridge, a company devoted to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China. Patrick Heather, Senior Research Fellow, joined the OIES in June Anouk Honoré, Senior Research 2006; his paper ‘The Evolution and Fellow, joined the OIES in 2004. She Functioning of the Traded Gas Market works in the Natural Gas Research in Britain’ was published in August Programme. She is an expert on the 2010. He is currently conducting European region, focusing on natural research on the continental European gas issues, power generation, energy gas hubs and their ability to provide policies, market fundamentals (with market pricing in long-term contracts. an emphasis on natural gas demand), Since 2004, Patrick has been an Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), and independent consultant advising and security of gas supplies. She also giving presentations to many different studies the natural gas markets in organizations including the ICE futures Latin America. She published the exchange, various producer and end book European Natural Gas Demand, user companies, financial institutions, Supply and Pricing: cycles, seasons and and governments in Austria, Britain, the impact of LNG arbitrage (Oxford France, Greece, Holland, Italy, Norway, University Press) in December 2010. Philippines, Poland, Russia, and Additional publications can be Sweden. In 2006, he was appointed found on the OIES website. Before Commercial Advisor to South Hook joining the Institute, Anouk worked Gas to assist them through the long at the International Energy Agency commissioning phase of their world- in Paris. Her work focused mainly leading LNG import facility in south on natural gas policies in the IEA Wales; this was successfully achieved member countries, but also included in the fourth quarter of 2009. Prior China and Latin America. Dr Honoré to that he was Trading Manager at holds a PhD in Economics, a MA in BG Group from 2002 to 2004, and Environmental and Natural Resources before that he worked at PowerGen Economics, and a LLM in International plc, where he set up their trading Administration (public law). capability and managed the gas and power trading desks. Patrick has Laura El-Katiri, is Junior Research over 30 years experience of broking, Fellow at the Oil and the Middle East trading, and risk management in the Programme, specialising on energy natural gas, power, and oil markets. policy in the Middle East, with a focus on the Gulf economies. Her Cameron Hepburn, Senior Research special interests include the political Fellow, joined the OIES in November economy of natural resource wealth, 38 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

oil and natural gas markets in the in the structuring of commercial the GCC states, and GCC economic arrangements, financing, and markets development and diversification. for pipeline gas and LNG projects. He She is also a Teaching Fellow in is one of the authors of the Institute’s the Department of Financial and book Natural Gas in Asia published in Management Studies at the School of June 2008, and Natural Gas in the Middle Oriental African Studies, University East and North Africa published in May of London. Laura graduated in Arabic 2011, and in July 2009 he published and Economics from the University of a paper ‘The Changing Relationship Exeter and in Modern Middle Eastern between NOCs and IOCs in the LNG Studies from the University of Oxford. Chain’. He is currently authoring a chapter for a book on the pricing of Malcolm Keay, Senior Research gas and LNG globally. David also Fellow, joined the OIES in January gives numerous commercial training 2005. His career has ranged widely courses on gas and LNG in the UK across the energy scene, including and overseas, writes on gas and LNG, the public sector (he was Director of and presents regularly at conferences. Energy Policy at the UK DTI from He is an associate of Outsights, an 1996 to 1999, and before that was a independent futures and scenario Division Head at the International planning consultancy. During 30 years Energy Agency), the private sector in the energy and utility sector David (as Senior Managing Consultant at has worked on the development of Oxera), and the non-profit sector (at complex integrated energy projects, Chatham House and the World Coal negotiations at government level, and Institute). He has acted as an adviser in the management of joint ventures. on many energy studies, including While with Shell, he worked in as Special Adviser to the House of Malaysia and the Netherlands and Lords Committee Inquiry into Energy travelled extensively to Oman and Security in Europe, and Director of Asia. He was a key member of the team the Energy and Climate Change Study that closed a major LNG project in for the World Energy Council. His the Middle East. He is an experienced research focuses on the implications commercial manager with hands-on of electricity market liberalization for experience of developing and closing the achievement of key energy policy commercial gas transactions as well objectives, particularly in relation as developing business strategy. to the environment. He contributed From 2000 to 2005, as Director of the chapter entitled ‘Can the Market Consulting then as Managing Director Deliver Security and Environmental of the Gas Strategies Group (formally Protection in Electricity Generation?’ EconoMatters Ltd), David worked on to UK Energy Policy and the End of and managed LNG and gas consulting Market Fundamentalism by Ian Rutledge assignments around the world. He has and Philip Wrights (eds.) published a degree in Economics and Geography in 2011 by Oxford University Press from the University of Exeter, UK. He for the OIES. This updates the joined the Institute in November 2007. analysis and conclusions of his earlier monograph The Dynamics of Power to Robert Mabro, CBE, Honorary argue that governments have failed President, was Director of the OIES to develop policies which will enable until April 2003. He is an Emeritus them to meet their environmental Fellow of St Antony’s College, a Fellow targets in the context of liberalized of St Catherine’s College, and a lay markets, and that more interventionist director on the board of ICE Futures, approaches would be needed. the oil futures exchange in London. He is also the Dean of the Oxford Energy David Ledesma, Research Fellow, is an Seminar and the Honorary Secretary independent gas and LNG consultant of the Oxford Energy Policy Club. In focusing on gas and LNG strategy November 2005 Robert Mabro stepped along the value chain including down as President of the Institute. The 2011 Annual Report 39

Board of Governors appointed him Philosophy Faculty of the University Honorary President in November 2006. of Oxford. He is Senior Research Associate of Queen Elizabeth House, Lavan Mahadeva, Senior Research the University of Oxford’s International Fellow, joined the OIES in August Development Centre, and an Associate 2011 and heads up its macroeconomic Fellow of its Environmental Change research. He is concerned with the Institute. He is on the board of directors interaction of energy markets with of the Stockholm Environment Institute the macroeconomy and international (Oxford) and of Climate Strategies, finance. He is working on what a London-based academic network constitutes good macroeconomic policy organization focused on developing in energy exporting countries and how and delivering research to meet the global financial market conditions needs of international climate change affect energy prices. Prior to joining the policymaking. He was also a Specialist Institute, Lavan Mahadeva was a Bank Adviser on Climate Change to the of England economist for 16 years. He International Development Committee began by modelling and forecasting the of the UK House of Commons. Dr UK economy. He then joined the Bank’s Müller received his doctorate (DPhil) Centre for Central Banking Studies in Philosophy from the University of and worked with other central banks Oxford, specializing in Philosophy in Africa, central and eastern Europe, of Language and of Science, and and Latin America in constructing was formerly a Research Fellow at their monetary policy strategies. His Wolfson College and a Lecturer in remit was to develop models to guide Logic at the Queen’s College, Oxford. policy in challenging environments. He He has a Diploma in Mathematics was an adviser to the Bank of England from the Eidgenössische Technische Monetary Policy Committee from 2005 Hochschule (ETH) in Zürich, to 2006 and he spent 2007–9 with the Switzerland. He has also been an Central Bank of Colombia as Adviser to expert reviewer of the Assessment the Governor. Just before coming to the Reports of the Intergovernmental Institute, he worked on cross-sectional Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). systemic risk and international finance. Lavan has published on the Keun-Wook Paik, Senior Research transmission mechanism of monetary Fellow, joined the OIES in January policy, monetary policy frameworks, 2007. He is a specialist on north-east and interbank contagion. He co- Asia’s oil and gas issues, in particular produced an award-winning book Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation, Monetary Policy Frameworks in a Global China’s natural gas industry, and Context. Lavan has a BA from Trinity DPRK’s offshore oil exploration. College, Cambridge, an MSc from the Currently he is an Associate Fellow University of Warwick, and a PhD of the Energy, Environment and from the European University Institute. Development Programme, Chatham House. He is the author of Gas and Oil Benito Müller, Director, Energy and in North-East Asia: Policies, Projects and Climate Change, joined the OIES in Prospects (London: Royal Institute of 1996. He is also Managing Director of International Affairs, 1995), and co- Oxford Climate Policy (a not-for-profit author/supervisor of China Natural company aimed at capacity building Gas Report (China OGP, Xinhua News for developing country climate change Agency and RIIA, 1998). His new and negotiators) and Director of the comprehensive study on China’s gas European Capacity Building Initiative expansion ‘The Implications of China’s (ecbi), an international initiative Gas Expansion towards Natural Gas for sustained capacity building in Market in Asia’, was published by support of international climate Chatham House in 2004. Dr Paik has change negotiations. Dr Müller is a contributed well over 35 papers to Supernumerary Fellow of Wolfson Energy Policy, Journal of Energy and College, Oxford and a member of the Development, Geopolitics of Energy, 40 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The Pacific Review, Energy Exploration of Economics. He is a former Chief & Exploitation, Oil & Gas Journal, Economist, Electricity Council, and a Petroleum Economist, Pipeline and Gas former Managing Director of NERA Technology, FT Asia Gas Report, China UK Economic Consulting, where he Daily Business Weekly, China Brief, The was intimately involved in a number World Today, RIIA Briefing papers, and of UK energy sector privatizations. Asia–Pacific Review. He is currently As Director of NERA’s international working on his second book project, on energy team he worked extensively Sino-Russian Oil and Gas Cooperation, on energy sector reform projects and contributed the Korea Gas worldwide with the World Bank, other Industry chapter for the OIES book development agencies, and national Natural Gas in Asia: the Challenges of governments. He continues to have Growth in China, India, Japan and Korea, economic and energy consulting 2nd Edition published in 2008. interests, is a Non-Executive Director of an NHS Hospital Trust, and a Simon Pirani, Senior Research Fellow Visiting Fellow at the University of on the Natural Gas Programme, joined Sussex, Energy Group. His current the OIES in September 2007, and is interests include energy policy in editor of its book, Russian and CIS Gas relation to climate change, on which Markets and their Impact on Europe. He subject he has given written and oral studied Russian at the University of evidence to the Environmental Audit London, wrote a doctoral dissertation Committee of the House of Commons. at the University of Essex, and is the author of a monograph on Soviet David Robinson, Senior Research history, The Russian Revolution in Fellow, joined the OIES in July 2007. Retreat, published by Routledge in He is a consulting economist who 2008. He has worked in journalism advises on public policy and corporate and publishing since 1977, including a strategy, especially in relation to spell as editor of the UK mineworkers’ energy and climate change. He is trade union journal in 1990–95. He an Academic Adviser to The Brattle writes about energy, politics, and Group of consultants, and was the economy of the former Soviet previously a Director of NERA, where Union, in financial and industry he was the co-Chair of European publications including Gas Matters, Operations and of the Global Energy Project Finance, and Emerging Markets and Telecom Practices. He has also Finance and Trade. His research at the worked at the International Energy Institute focuses on the development Agency (IEA), and wrote his doctoral of natural gas markets, and changing dissertation at the University of Oxford consumption patterns, in the former on the vertical disintegration of the Soviet Union. His latest book Change international petroleum industry. in Putin’s Russia: Power, Money and People, was published in 2009 and he Howard Rogers, Director, Natural is the author of ‘The Impact of the Gas Research Programme, joined Economic Crisis on Russian and CIS the OIES in January 2009 after a long Gas Markets’ an Institute working career in BP in upstream oil and gas paper published in 2009, and co-author business development and strategy, of ‘The April 2010 Russo-Ukrainian including postings to the USA, Kuwait, gas agreement and its implications and Azerbaijan. His last post in BP for Europe’ published in 2010. was Head of Fundamental Analysis, Global Gas. In 2010 he published an John Rhys, Senior Research Fellow, OIES research paper ‘LNG Trade- joined the OIES in March 2010, having flows in the Atlantic Basin: Trends and been one of its senior research advisers. Discontinuities’ on the subject of LNG He obtained an Honours degree in arbitrage between the regional markets Mathematics while at Jesus College, of Asia, Europe, and North America, Oxford, and later obtained his PhD based on a quantitative modelling in economics at the London School framework. With Jonathan Stern he 2011 Annual Report 41

co-authored a paper on the transition Geology at University of Texas at to hub-based gas pricing in continental Austin. He is the author of several Europe in 2011. He published a paper books, including The Future of Russian ‘The Impact of Import Dependency Gas and Gazprom (Oxford University and Wind generation on UK Gas Press, 2005) and many shorter works Demand and Security of Supply to on energy and natural gas issues. 2025’ in 2011, and in early 2012 a paper During 2011, Jonathan Stern’s major ‘The Impact of a Globalising Market research focused on gas pricing. He on Future European Gas Supply and co-authored (with Howard Rogers) Pricing: the Importance of Asian an OIES paper ‘The Transition to Demand and North American Supply’. Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe’, which was published in Anupama Sen, Research Fellow, joined March 2011. During the year he began the OIES in October 2009 to work on work on an edited volume, The Pricing the economics of energy in India. She of Internationally Traded Gas, comprising holds a BA (Hons) in Economics from 14 chapters and involving 15 authors, the University of Mumbai, an MSc to be published by the Institute in in Economic Development from the 2012. Following publication in March London School of Economics, and a 2011 of the book Natural Gas Markets PhD from the University of Cambridge in the Middle East and North Africa he where she was a Cambridge Nehru co-authored with Bassam Fattouh, he Scholar. She is also a Fellow of the organized launches, in London, Doha, Cambridge Commonwealth Society. Washington DC, and Tokyo. During the Her doctoral research involved an year he continued to work on European empirical analysis of the economic gas pricing developments, and impacts of autonomous electricity general Russian and CIS gas issues. sector reform in Indian states, whilst accounting for their inherent economic In October 2011, Jonathan Stern was and political diversity. Anupama’s appointed EU Speaker for the EU– research interests are in the economic Russia Gas Advisory Council, a body and applied econometric analysis set up by EU Energy Commissioner of outcomes in energy sector reform Oettinger and Russian Energy Minister in developing countries. Her work Shmatko to assess future trends in at the Institute is broadening to the gas sector in order to reduce include wider themes within India’s risks and to exploit opportunities energy sector, including oil, gas, and in EU–Russia gas cooperation. climate change, with a particular focus on the interconnectedness Katja Yafimava, Research Fellow, of these themes, through factors joined the OIES in November 2006 such as energy pricing. Anupama to work in the Natural Gas Research is currently researching aspects Programme. She holds a DPhil in of fiscal regimes in hydrocarbons Geography and an MPhil in Russian exploration and production in and East European Studies from the India. She is also a Visiting Fellow University of Oxford (Corpus Christi at Wolfson College, Cambridge. College). The topic of her doctorate thesis was ‘The Importance of Russian Jonathan Stern, Chairman of the Gas Transit across Western CIS Natural Gas Programme and Senior Countries for EU Energy Security, Research Fellow, is also Honorary 1998–2007’. She is currently working Professor at the Centre for Energy, on a book The Transit Dimension of EU Petroleum & Mineral Law & Policy, Energy Security: Russian Gas Transit University of Dundee; and Visiting Across Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova to Professor at Imperial College’s Centre be published by OUP in 2011. She has for Environmental Policy in London. authored a chapter on the Belarusian He is a Member of the Board of gas market and has also co-authored Advisers for the Center for Energy a chapter on Moldova for Russian and Economics, Bureau of Economic CIS Gas Markets and their Impact on 42 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Europe edited by Simon Pirani and Renfeng Zhao, Research Fellow, published by OUP in February 2009. joined the OIES in 2007 to participate She also co-authored a working paper in a project on balanced clean on the January 2009 Ukrainian gas development in China. His work crisis, together with Simon Pirani focuses on China’s energy strategy and Jonathan Stern. She published and development policies, and a working paper on the June 2010 China’s energy diplomacy and its Russia–Belarus gas dispute, a short geopolitical implications. Previously, version of which also appeared in he worked at China Daily as energy Petroleum Review. She also reviewed and finance correspondent from 1997 several papers for Journal of European to 2005. He holds a double master’s integration and The Energy Journal. degree in Journalism and Global She has also presented her work at Studies from EU Erasmus Mundus various conferences (The Skolkovo Programme. He was a Parvin/Freedom School of Management, Moscow; Forum Fellow at the University of SITE, Stockholm; CEU, Budapest). Her Hawaii and the East–West Center. book Post-Soviet Russian-Belarusian Relationships: the Role of Gas Transit The following staff contributed Pipelines was published in March 2007. to the work of the Institute Prior to joining the Institute and in in 2011. Their dedication and parallel with her doctoral studies, she professionalism was essential to was an intern at Shell (2005) and at its continued smooth running. the Energy Charter Secretariat (2006). • Lavinia Brandon provides Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff, administrative support and has Research Fellow, is a Senior Associate responsibility for managing and Member at the Russian and Eurasian maintaining the Institute’s excellent Studies Centre, St Antony’s College, library. University of Oxford. Dr Yenikeyeff writes and presents on Russian- • Jo Ilott provides administrative European energy relations, Russia and support for the Natural Gas OPEC, Caspian and Central Asian Programme. energy issues, and the development of Arctic hydrocarbons. His publications • Margaret Ko is responsible for the have appeared in a number of industry Institute’s accounts. and academic journals. Amongst the latest of these is an article ‘Energy • Susan Millar manages the Oxford Interests of the “Great Powers” in Energy Policy Club and Oxford Central Asia: Cooperation or Conflict?’, Energy Seminar. (International Spectator, Vol. 46, No. 3, September 2011) as well as a study on • Kate Teasdale is the Institute’s natural resource management in Russia administrator. (co-authored with Valery Kryukov and Anatoly Tokarev) which featured as a chapter in Plundered Nations? Successes and Failures in Natural Resource Extraction (Palgrave Macmillan, 2011), edited by Paul Collier and Tony Venables. Dr Yenikeyeff is also the author of The Battle for Russian Oil: Corporations, Regions, and the State, a forthcoming book on the politics of the Russian oil sector under Yeltsin, Putin, and Medvedev to be published by Oxford University Press in 2012. 2011 Annual Report 43

Visiting Research Fellows, Research Advisers, Contributing Authors, and Students

Siamak Adibi, Contributing Author, Energy Policy Club, the Paris Energy is currently head of the Middle East Club, and the Arab Energy Club. gas team at FACTS Global Energy (FGE), a consulting company based Randa Alami, Contributing Author, in Singapore. Siamak specializes in is a development economist the natural gas/LNG business with a specializing in the Middle East, and focus on the Middle East, North Africa, is currently a Teaching Fellow at and CIS countries. He holds an MA in the School of Oriental and African Energy Economics and was previously Studies, University of London. with the National Iranian Gas Export Previously, Randa worked as a Company (NIGEC). Recently, he led Research Fellow at the OIES and at an FGE in-depth study into Middle UNCTAD, and has been a consultant East and North African countries, to DFID, ESCWA, and others. focusing on gas. Siamak Adibi has presented at several oil and gas Sofya Alterman, Visiting Research briefings/conferences in Asia and the Fellow, conducted research with the Middle East. His work has appeared in OIES in July and August 2011, focusing numerous international publications. on natural gas price volatility across markets. Sofya’s background is in Ali Aissaoui, Senior Research Adviser, private equity. She is a Vice President is senior consultant at the Arab with a private equity firm in New Petroleum Investments Corporation York, where she has worked since (APICORP) where he previously held 2003. Sofya’s contact with the OIES the position of Head of Economics & began as part of her research for a Research. Before joining APICORP study on Trends and Pricing Dynamics he worked as senior research fellow in LNG, which she undertook as at the OIES. Prior to that, he served part of her MBA at Harvard Business as energy policy advisor to the School in 2010. Her first degree is Algerian government, while acting in Business Economics from the as that country’s representative University of Louisville, Kentucky. on the OPEC Board of Governors. At APICORP he has focused on Robert Arnott, Senior Research scrutinizing the corporation’s business Adviser, is currently a Director on environment, and on framing its the boards of Petroceltic International strategy. Ali Aissaoui is author and plc and Spring Energy ASA, having co-author of books, chapters of spent five years with DNO where he books, and numerous analyses and advised the company on international critical reviews. Topics addressed business development and corporate include energy markets and prices, strategy. He is also a Director of Impax investments and funding, as well as Environmental Markets plc, which the political economy of the major invests in clean energy, waste, and petroleum-exporting countries. water technologies. He worked as a His current thoughts and views are Senior Fellow at the OIES from 2001 to reflected in APICORP’s monthly 2005; his research focused on all aspects Economic Commentary, which he of mature oil and gas provinces, as authors and edits. Ali Aissaoui is well as the corporate strategies of the a member of several professional major energy companies. He has a associations, including the Oxford strong background in all aspects of 44 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

exploration and production and is at Statoil where he works with global recognized for his research into the strategy and business development. upstream oil and gas industry. He Michael started his career at the worked as a geologist and economist OECD as an economist, focusing his with Royal Dutch Shell prior to research on economic development entering the City in 1991, where he in China, and its global impacts. He held senior positions as an oil and then joined the International Energy gas equity analyst for 10 years. Agency, where he worked in the World Energy Outlook’s long-term global Michael Bradshaw, Visiting Senior energy forecast team. Michael’s main Research Fellow, joined the OIES areas of expertise are: the Chinese in August 2008. He is Professor of energy economy and regulations, Human Geography and a former Head the ASEAN energy market, global of the Department of Geography at fossil fuel subsidies, and upstream the University of Leicester, UK. His industry trends. Michael holds a PhD is from the University of British BA in Economics from Lancaster Columbia, Canada. His research is on University, an MSc in Economics resource geography, with a particular from University College London, focus on the economic geography of and an MSc in Development from Russia and global energy security. the London School of Economics. In 2007 he was awarded the Royal Geographical Society’s Back Award Andrew Cleary, Visiting Research for his applied research on economic Fellow, is a Director of Integrity change in post-socialist economies. Research and Consultancy Limited, Most recently his research has focused where he is responsible for the on energy-related issues. For more company’s strategy and growth in the than a decade he has studied the Middle East and North Africa. Andrew development of the Sakhalin oil and started his career in the Canadian gas projects in Russia’s Far East. This Parliament, working for a legislator, has led to research on energy security before moving into the research sector, in north-east Asia. From 2008 to 2011 undertaking the study of natural gas he was engaged in a programme of and political risk-related contracts with research on Global Energy Dilemmas, private firms in Europe and the USA. funded by a Leverhulme Trust Andrew wrote the chapter relating to Major Research Fellowship, that Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan for examined the relationship between the book Natural Gas Markets in the energy security, globalization, and Middle East and North Africa, recently climate change. In January 2011 he published by the OIES, having lived, started a two-year research project worked, and studied in the region. on global gas security funded by the Andrew holds a BSocSci (Hons) from UK Energy Research Centre. He is the University of Ottawa and an MSc Editor-in-Chief of Wiley-Blackwell’s Econ from Aberystwyth University. Geography Compass, Contributing Editor of Eurasian Geography and Justin Dargin, Contributing Author, Economics, and a past editor of Area. is an Energy Research Fellow with In addition to his involvement in Harvard University and a Fulbright OIES, he is an Honorary Senior Scholar of the Middle East. He is Research Fellow in the Centre for a specialist in energy law, and the Russian and East European Studies Middle Eastern oil and gas market. at the University of Birmingham. He has many years of experience At present, he is Vice President in the MENA oil and gas market. (Research and Higher Education), and Previously, Dargin worked in the legal a member, of the Council of the Royal department of OPEC where he advised Geographical Society (with IBG). senior officials on various multilateral issues. He is the author of Desert Michael Xiaobao Chen, Visiting Dreams, a book about the intersection Research Fellow, is a Principal Analyst of Middle Eastern geopolitics, 2011 Annual Report 45

energy, and state formation. He exploration and production for sits on the board of directors of the Statoil. Her main areas of expertise International Energy Foundation. are upstream contracts (fiscal regimes, production sharing, joint John Enos, Visiting Research Fellow, operatorship) and commercial is Emeritus Fellow in Economics structures, in particular in gas value at Magdalen College, Oxford. He chains, and energy industry trends. joined the OIES in 1994 to carry out a Her research currently focuses on study of improvements to oil refinery unconventional gas in North America processing units in the previous half and Europe and impacts on gas century. He completed his research on markets. She graduated from École the fluid catalytic cracking process, des Hautes Etudes Commerciales now published as Technical Progress (HEC) with a Master in Science of and Profits: Process Improvements in Management and from Université Paris Petroleum Refining. His current research XI with a Master in Business Law. focuses on the diffusion of innovations to large state-owned oil companies. Franz Gerner, Contributing Author, is a Senior Energy Economist with Jon Farrimond, Contributing 15 years of experience in the gas Author, works for the Financial sector, focusing on gas market reform, Services Authority. restructuring, pricing, and economic regulation. He currently works on Fereidun Fesharaki, Contributing the World Bank’s gas business and Author, is Chairman of FACTS Global dialogue in Eastern Europe and Energy (FGE), an energy consulting Central Asia, and has previously firm with offices in Singapore, London, covered Egypt and Yemen. He has Dubai, Honolulu, Beijing, Perth, and published widely including a World Yokohama. He received his PhD in Bank publication: Republic of Yemen: Energy Economics at the University A Natural Gas Incentive Framework. of Surrey and has led energy-related academic research at the East–West Anastasios Giamouridis, Senior Center since 1985. Prior to founding Visiting Research Fellow, is an FGE, Dr Fesharaki was at Harvard’s Associate at the Gas Supply Division Center for Middle Eastern Studies. of DEPA, where he focuses on He was the Energy Adviser to the international gas and LNG markets Prime Minister of Iran and a Delegate and commercial negotiations, including to OPEC’s Ministerial Conferences. those for new supply contracts and price reviews. Previously, he was the Michelle Michot Foss, Contributing Lead Consultant for south-eastern Author, is Chief Energy Economist Europe and Turkey at PFC Energy, and Head of the Bureau of Economic and a Researcher at the UK House of Geology’s Center for Energy Commons. He holds degrees from Economics, Jackson School of the London School of Economics Geosciences, The University of Texas and the University of Durham. His at Austin. She has more than 25 current research with OIES focuses years of experience on US and North on upstream gas and monetization American natural gas market, industry, in the eastern Mediterranean. and policy/regulatory issues. Prior to her university appointments, she Marianne Haug, Senior Research worked in energy investment banking Adviser, teaches Energy Policy and (Simmons & Company International), Sustainable Development at the and energy, environment, and regional University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart in economics research and consulting. Germany. She is Chairman of the Board of the Forum für Zukunftsenergien, Florence Gény, Visiting Research Berlin, Germany’s only independent Fellow, works in business development forum for energy policy, and a and strategy in international member of the Advisory Board of 46 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

the OMV Future Energy Fund. At the European Anil Jain, Senior Visiting Research Fellow, is a Commission, she serves as Chair of the AGE7 – member of the Indian Administrative Service, the Advisory Group for Energy for the 7th Framework federal civil service of India. He holds a Bachelor’s Programme – and is a member of the High-level Degree with Honours in Economics, and an MBA Advisory Council for the European Hydrogen & with specialization in Marketing. He also took Fuel Cell Technology Platform. During the years a one-year Diploma programme at the Indian 2001–5, she served as Director at the International Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi. He has Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, in charge of the over 25 years of administrative experience, both Office of Energy Efficiency, Technology, and R&D, at field and policy formulation levels. He has following a long career as Director at the World held senior positions in the provincial and federal Bank in Washington and in the private sector. governments in the Ministries of Agriculture, Mining, Industries, Revenue, and Petroleum & Charles Henderson CB, Senior Research Natural Gas. In separate assignments, he has Adviser, is retired from the Department of been exposed to the differing development- Trade and Industry where he was Head of the related issues faced by villages and by small Energy Directorate. He is a former Chairman of and large industries. During the years 2003 TOTAL Oil’s business in the UK and a member to 2008, as Director and Joint Secretary in the of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas of the Government of India, he piloted the petroleum James Henderson, Senior Visiting Research exploration and international cooperation Fellow, has been analysing the Russian oil and gas activities. He has been closely associated with industry for the past 15 years. Having been Head the development of the natural gas sector of Energy for Wood Mackenzie Consultants in the (including award of acreages, development of mid-1990s, he moved to Moscow as Head of Oil & discoveries, pricing, and distribution) and its Gas Research for Renaissance Capital in 1997, and deregulation. Presently, he is posted as Special in 1999 became their Head of Equity Research. He Commissioner at New Delhi, the national capital, returned to the UK in 2002 and is currently Head where he promotes the interests of the provincial of Russia for Lambert Energy Advisory in London. State Government of Madhya Pradesh. He completed his doctoral thesis on partnership in the Russian oil and gas industry at the University David Jalilvand, Student, visited the OIES in of London, and received his PhD in 2010. July and August 2011 to carry our research for his MSc degree in Global Politics at the London Jonathan Hill, Contributing Author, works School of Economics and Political Science. for the Financial Services Authority. Najeeb Jung, Senior Research Adviser, is Vice Paul Horsnell, Senior Research Adviser, is a Chancellor, Jamia Millia Islamia University, Managing Director and Head of Commodities New Delhi. He joined the Indian Administrative Research at Barclays Capital, the investment Services (IAS) in 1973 and has worked in banking division of Barclays Bank plc. He is different capacities in Madhya Pradesh and responsible for Barclays Capital’s research in with the Government of India. He subsequently global commodities markets, covering energy, worked with the Asian Development Bank base metals, precious metals, carbon, and (ADB). He is an expert on governance and agricultural products. Barclays Capital has a team energy, having worked in these areas with of commodities analysts based in London, New different governments, the public sector, and York, San Francisco, and Singapore. Dr Horsnell the private sector. He is a member of several joined Barclays Capital in 2003 from JPMorgan Committees/Special Task Forces set up by the where he was Head of Energy Research. Prior Government of India to deal with education to that, he was Assistant Director for Research and governance. He is also a regular columnist at the OIES and a Research Fellow in Economics writing for several national newspapers. at Lincoln College, Oxford. He is the author of Oil in Asia: Markets, Trading, Refining and Yelena Kalyuzhnova, Senior Visiting Research Deregulation (OUP/OIES, 1997) and (with Robert Fellow, founded and is Director of the Centre Mabro) Oil Markets and Prices: The Brent Market for Euro-Asian Studies at the University of and the Formation of World Oil Prices (OUP/ Reading, UK. She is an authoritative expert OIES, 1993). He holds a degree in Philosophy, on the economics of energy and transition Politics, and Economics, and a doctorate in economies. Professor Kalyuzhnova is the author Economics, both from Keble College, Oxford. of the first book in English about the economy 2011 Annual Report 47

of Kazakhstan. She is involved in and of the UNECE Group of Experts collaborations on a wide range of in Sustainable Energy, as well as a topics with a number of private regular consultant to the World Bank companies (BG Group, Burren Energy, and contributor to the Oil and Gas ChevronTexaco, Shell International) Economy and Law (OGEL) network. and international organizations such He won an Innovation Award at the as UNECE, the World Bank, the IMF, Power-Gen Europe Conference in 2002. and the EBRD. She has contributed to numerous economic studies for Chris Llewellyn Smith, Senior international organizations (The Research Adviser, is a theoretical World Bank, European Bank for physicist. He is currently Director Reconstruction and Development, of Energy Research, Oxford Economic Commission for Europe, University, and President of the United Nations, UNDP, etc.) and is a Council of SESAME (Synchrotron- frequent speaker at international level light for Experimental Science and on economic, environmental, and its Applications in the Middle East). energy issues. Professor Kalyuzhnova He has served as Chairman of the is an economic adviser on Caspian Council of ITER (2007–9) and of the issues to the Rt Hon. Lord Fraser of Consultative Committee for Euratom Carmyllie, QC, House of Lords and on Fusion (2004–9), and was Director an economic adviser to the All-Party of UKAEA Culham (2003–8), with Parliamentary Group on Kazakhstan, responsibility for the UK’s fusion House of Commons, UK Parliament. programme and for operation of the Joint European Torus (JET). While at Aleksandar Kovacevic, Senior Culham he developed and promoted Visiting Research Fellow, started his the ‘Fast Track’ development of professional career with the Federal fusion energy. He was Provost and Productivity Institute of the former President of University College Yugoslavia in 1986. He graduated London (1999–2002), Director General in energy economics at Belgrade of CERN (1994–8), and Chairman of University. He is principal author of Oxford Physics (1987–92). During the energy–poverty analysis ‘Stuck his mandate as DG of CERN the in the Past’ (UNDP, 2004), co-author Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was of the Western Balkans energy policy approved and construction started. survey (IEA/UNDP, 2008) and the Public Expenditure and Institutional After completing his Doctorate in Review (PEIR) for Serbia and Oxford in 1967, he worked briefly in Montenegro (World Bank, 2003), and the Physical Institute of the Academy author of a number of papers, lectures, of Sciences in Moscow, before spending and media contributions. Over 20 periods at CERN and the Stanford years he has provided strategic advice, Linear Accelerator Center, after which complex energy efficiency solutions, he returned to Oxford in 1984. Chris and emergency situation assistance Llewellyn Smith has written and to major institutional, financial, and spoken widely on science funding, private clients including assistance international scientific collaboration, to UN OCHA to coordinate rapid and energy issues. He has served reconstruction of the Serbian energy on many advisory bodies nationally infrastructure after the 1999 war. He and internationally, including the UK was affiliated to PlanEcon before Prime Minister’s Advisory Council 1992, project manager for Tagarnrog on Science and Technology (1989–92). Development project in Russia His scientific contributions and (1992–8), and a contributor to the leadership have been recognized Black Sea and Central Asia panel at by awards and honours in seven the Harriman Institute, Columbia countries on three continents. University. Aleksandar has been a member of the Advisory Board to the Cyril Lin, Senior Research Adviser, Russian Power Conference since 2002, is Founder and Managing Director of 48 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

IFG Development Initiatives (IFGDI), Delhi, India. Since 2003, Dr Lim has an economics and corporate advisory been directing the China Economic consultancy specializing in transition Research and Advisory Programme and emerging market economies. which provides policy advice, pro He received his undergraduate and bono, to the Chinese authorities. graduate training at MIT, Harvard University, and the University of Joan MacNaughton, Senior Research Oxford. Until 2001, he was a University Adviser, joined the OIES in September Lecturer in Economics at the University 2006. She is Global Adviser, Sustainable of Oxford, Director of the Centre Policies, Alstom Power. An influential for Modern Chinese Studies, and figure in energy and climate policy, Fellow in Economics at St Antony’s Joan oversaw the energy agenda College. He is a member of the team during the UK’s Presidency of the of international economists formed EU, led the energy work at the G8 by the China Economic Research Gleneagles Summit, and chaired the and Advisory Programme (CERAP), Governing Board of the IEA. From a non-profit body undertaking 2007 to 2011, Joan led Alstom’s policy economic policy research and advice department and spearheaded the for Chinese policymakers. In 2006 company’s clean power advocacy: he initiated the establishment of the to advance clean, sustainable energy Cairncross Memorial Foundation, and reduce power generation CO2 which aims to support international emissions. She now acts as Global collaborative research between Adviser on Sustainable Policies for foreign and Chinese specialists Alstom. Joan is President of the concerning major Chinese public Energy Institute, Vice Chair of the UN policy issues, including Economics, High Level Panel of the CDM Policy Energy and the Environment, Dialogue, Executive Chair of the World Governance, and the Law. Energy Council Policy Assessment, and a member of the Board of Edwin R. Lim, Senior Research Governors, Argonne Laboratory at Adviser, was educated at Princeton the University of Chicago; Joan also University (BA) and Harvard holds several other appointments. University (PhD in Economics). He joined the World Bank in 1970 and in John Mitchell, Senior Research the following 30 years, was responsible Adviser, is an Associate Research for the Bank’s work in a number of Fellow at Chatham House and developing countries, including Ghana, Honorary Fellow at the Centre for Nigeria, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Energy, Petroleum & Mineral Law & India, and China. In 1980, Dr Lim was Policy at the University of Dundee. In a member of the management team November 2007 he received a lifetime of the World Bank that conceived and achievement award for research from directed the Bank’s programme in King Abdullah at the opening of the China. He established the World Bank’s Third OPEC Summit in Riyadh. He office in China and served as the first retired in 1993 from British Petroleum, Chief of Mission from 1985 to 1990. where his posts had included He returned to headquarters in 1990 Special Adviser to the Managing when he was appointed a Director, Directors, Regional Co-ordinator with responsibility for Western for BP’s subsidiaries in the Western Africa. In 1994, Dr Lim took two Hemisphere, and head of BP’s Policy years external leave from the World Review Unit. Mitchell has written three Bank to set up China International books: The New Economy of Oil (2001), Capital Corporation (CICC), China’s Companies in a World of Conflict (editor, first international investment bank, 1998) both published by Chatham and served as CICC’s first CEO. He House/Earthscan; and The New returned to the World Bank in 1996 Geopolitics of Energy (Chatham House and was appointed the first Country 1996). He was a contributor to Oil Director to be stationed in New Titans by Valérie Marcel (Brookings/ 2011 Annual Report 49

Chatham House, 2006), and has written Chairman of DEPA SA, which he numerous reports, briefing papers, joined in 1988. Between 2005 and 2009 and journal articles, including ‘More he served as a senior executive and for Asia: Rebalancing Global Oil high-level advisor to its Chairman and And Gas’ (Chatham House 2010). CEO; prior to that he held the positions of General Director of the Gas Trading Shirin Narwani, Visiting Research Division (1997–2004); of Managing Fellow, and Senior Member at St. Director (1996); of General Manager Antony’s College, Oxford, joined (1993–6); and of Head of Strategic the OIES in November 2011. She Planning and Development (1991–3). has previously worked at OIES, the Between 2003 and 2009 he also served Centre for Global Energy Studies as Deputy Chairman at the Institute of (CGES), and the Petroleum Economist. Energy for South East Europe (IENE), She has a BA in Economics and an and he has also been a member of MPhil in Modern Middle East Studies the Board of Directors of the Public from the University of Oxford. She Petroleum Corporation of Greece has published on varied topics (now Hellenic Petroleum); a General from oil markets to energy-related Manager at Asprofos Engineering; environmental issues, with a particular and a senior executive in a number of concentration on energy in the Middle other public and private companies East. Her professional activities also in Greece. Spiros Paleoyannis has an focus on working with NGOs on academic background in chemistry projects in the Middle East. She has and also holds an MBA with focus produced an Iranian film Ra’ye Makhfi on strategic management. He is the (The Secret Ballot) which won ten President of the International Centre international awards including several for Business Studies (ICBS), Kingston at the 2001 Venice film festival. Her University, Alumni Group in Greece, research at OIES focuses on energy and a member of the Advisory sector issues in Iran; she has recently Board at the Faculty of Business written a paper on Iran’s energy and Law of Kingston University. subsidy reform programme for the Oxford Energy Forum which forms Concetta Perrini, Student, visited part of a working paper entitled: ‘Iran’s the OIES for three months in Energy Subsidy Reform: Impact and August 2011 to carry out research lessons for other energy-rich MENA for her Masters degree in Corporate countries’, to be published in 2012. Finance and Business Management at LUISS University, Rome. Waniss A. Otman, Contributing Author, is a petroleum economist Robert Ritz, Visiting Research who specializes in the area of risk and Fellow, is an economist with research uncertainty analysis. He holds a PhD interests in industrial organization in risk analysis of investment in the and environmental economics. His upstream oil and gas sector, as well as current research focuses on the design related LLM, MSc, and BSc degrees. of market-based environmental He has written many peer-reviewed policy and its impact on firms. articles and authored these books: The Two recent projects are: allocating Libyan Petroleum Industry in the Twenty- emissions permits in a cap-and- First Century; The Libyan Economy: trade scheme (such as the EU ETS) Economic Diversification and International to neutralize any adverse impact on Repositioning; Libyan Oil and Gas firms’ profits; and quantifying the Resources; Oil and Gas Fiscal Review, degree of ‘carbon leakage’ when not Iraq Energy Institute; Understanding all firms in an industry are covered Modern Libya; and Africa’s Energy and by environmental regulation. He is Natural Resources in the Global Economy. also interested in the economics of cost pass-through and how different Spiros Paleoyannis, Contributing types of risk affect the investment Author, is the Deputy CEO and Vice decisions of oil and gas companies. 50 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Ian Rutledge, Contributing Author, consultant economist at the United is director of SERIS (Sheffield Energy Nations Development Programme and Resources Information Services) in New York, and a Research Fellow and Honorary Senior Research at Harvard University. He has been Fellow in the Management School a visiting scholar at the National at the University of Sheffield. His Bureau of Economic Research in career has included three years of Cambridge, Massachusetts, and employment as a miner with the at the Centro de Investigación y National Coal Board. He is author of Docencia Económicas in Mexico City. Addicted to Oil: America’s Relentless Drive for Energy Security, published Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Senior Research by I.B. Tauris, 2005 and 2006. Adviser, currently serves as a senior adviser and consultant to a number Ivan Sandrea, Senior Research Adviser, of public and private institutions, is President of Energy Intelligence organizations, and companies, Group in London. Past positions including as member and adviser include Vice President Global Strategy to Kuwait National Nuclear Energy and Business Development and Vice Committee. In 2005 he served as President of Strategy International the Acting Secretary General of the Exploration & Production (E&P) at Organization of Petroleum Exporting Statoil (2007–11), head of oil supply Countries (OPEC) where he also served at the Organization of the Petroleum as Director of Research, from August Exporting Countries (Vienna), associate 2001 through March 2006. From March Vice President of oil and gas for Merrill 1999 to August 2001 he served as Lynch (London), and exploration Director of the Division for Africa, and operational geologist at British East Asia, and the Pacific, Department Petroleum International (Venezuela, of Technical Cooperation, at the Norway, and Egypt). Mr Sandrea International Atomic Energy Agency regularly collaborates with various (IAEA) in Vienna, Austria. Prior to international institutions in oil and joining the IAEA, from December 1991 gas research, and has represented to February 1999, he served as Director OPEC at the UN in efforts to reclassify of the UNESCO Regional Office for global oil and gas resources. Mr Science and Technology (Cairo) and Sandrea is a senior research adviser as the UNESCO Representative in at the OIES, a member of the Oslo Egypt, Sudan, and Yemen. Prior Energy Forum (Norway), and a to his career with international board member of the Energy MBA organizations, he taught, lectured on, programme at Wirtschaftsuniversität undertook, and directed research in (WU) in Vienna. He is a former Board the physical and engineering sciences Member (three years) at Pan Andean as well as in energy economics and Resources, a Latin American-focused technology, at a number of universities UK-listed E&P Company (acquired and research centres in Kuwait, the by Petrominerales). He holds a BS USA, and Europe, including Kuwait in geology from Baylor University, University, the Lawrence Berkeley a MS in petroleum geology, and a National Laboratory, the University of MBA from Edinburgh University. Mr California at Berkeley, the European Sandrea was born in Venezuela. Nuclear Research Center in Geneva, Switzerland, and at the Energy Paul Segal, Senior Visiting Research and Environment Policy Center at Fellow, is also a Lecturer in Economics Harvard University in Cambridge, at the University of Sussex. He works Massachusetts, USA. From 1976 to on economic development, the 1986 he was the Director General of the economics of resource-rich countries, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research. and the macroeconomics of oil prices. He completed his DPhil in Nevzat Simsek, Visiting Research Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford, Fellow, is Assistant Professor, in 2006, having previously been a Department of Economics, Faculty 2011 Annual Report 51

of Economics and Administrative Professor of Petroleum Policy and Sciences, Dokuz Eylul University, Economics at the Centre for Energy, Turkey. He won a scholarship to carry Petroleum & Mineral Law & Policy, out post-doctoral research on ‘Crude University of Dundee, Scotland, a chair Oil and Natural Gas: A Demand and created by BP. In January 2008 he was Supply Model for the World Market’. appointed to an Emeritus Chair. He He joined the OIES in July 2010. has now joined, on a part-time basis, Chatham House (The Royal Institute Ian Skeet, Senior Research Adviser, is for International affairs) in London a consultant to the OIES and former as Senior Research Fellow (Energy). editor of Oxford Energy Forum. His role is to take over the energy part of the Energy, Environment, Robert Skinner, Senior Research and Development Programme. He Adviser, is an independent energy has published extensively on energy consultant in Calgary, Canada. He is economics, the international petroleum a Former Director of OIES and was industry, economic development previously Senior Vice President, issues, and the political economy of the Strategy, Commercial, and Government Gulf. He also works as a consultant for Affairs for StatoilHydro’s Canadian many companies and governments. subsidiary; Administrator Northern (Alaskan) Pipeline Agency; Vice Silvana Tordo, Contributing Author, President Oil Sands Total E&P is a Lead Energy Economist at the Canada Ltd; Director of Policy Office Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy Division of International Energy Agency; of the World Bank. Her area of and Assistant Deputy Minister focus includes upstream oil and gas Energy (Canadian Government). He sector policies and strategies, legal previously held senior government and institutional frameworks, fiscal positions in natural gas, nuclear terms and petroleum contracts, and and uranium, petroleum, economic petroleum revenue management. regulation, and environment. He She is a co-author of the World Bank has advised numerous governments publication Republic of Yemen: A and companies in North America, Natural Gas Incentive Framework. Europe, Asia, and Latin America. An Associate Fellow of Chatham House; Adair Turner, Contributing Author, academic coordinator/energy for is Chairman of the Financial the Club of Madrid; member of The Services Authority. Global Policy Council of Bertlesmann Foundation; and external reviewer Philip Wright, Senior Research to Emirates Centre for Strategic Adviser, is Honorary Professor of Studies and Research, he is the author Energy Policy and Economics at the of numerous papers, articles, and University of Sheffield and a Fellow reports on energy, geopolitics, and of the Institute of Energy. Over geology. He has advanced degrees in more than two decades his research, geology from Queen’s, Canada and the publications, consultancy, and teaching University of Washington, Seattle USA. have covered all the energy industries and the companies that operate in Paul Stevens, Senior Research Adviser, them. As well as contributing a critical was educated as an economist and perspective on the liberalization as a specialist on the Middle East at of gas and electricity industries, Cambridge and the School of Oriental his recent work has also addressed and African Studies; from 1973–9 he the UK’s oil and gas fiscal regime. taught at the American University of His views and expertise have been Beirut in Lebanon, interspersed with sought by government organizations, two years as an oil consultant; from international organizations, companies, 1979–93 he was a lecturer and senior trade unions, and universities in lecturer in economics at the University Europe and Latin America. Fluent of Surrey. From 1993 to 2008, he was in French and Spanish, he has 52 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

been a Visiting Professor at the University of Montpellier1 and at the University of Cartagena de Indias, Colombia. He currently works as an independent consultant and writer.

Ian Wybrew-Bond, Company Secretary and a Senior Research Adviser to the OIES. After a career in Shell, principally in its international natural gas business, he became a gas adviser to the OIES and co-edited and co-authored the publications Gas to Europe and Natural Gas in Asia. He was a non-executive director of Saipem and a Senior Associate with CERA for many years.

Lorian Yacoub, Contributing Author, is a Doctoral Researcher at the Management School, University of Sheffield. Her current research project, ‘Reconstructing Oil Governance in Iraq’ specifically looks at the distribution of revenues between the central and regional governorates. 2009 Annual Report 53

Accounts AUDITORS’ STATEMENT ON SUMMARISED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2011

Independent Auditors Statement To The Members of Oxford Institute For Energy Studies We have examined the summary financial statement for the year ended 31 December 2011. Respective responsibilities of trustees and auditors

The trustees are responsible for preparing the summary financial statement in accordance with applicable United Kingdom law. Our responsibility is to report to you our opinion on the consistency of the summary financial statement with the full annual financial statements, and its compliance with the relevant requirements of section 427 of the Companies Act 2006 and the regulations made thereunder.

We conducted our work in accordance with Bulletin 2008/3 issued by the Auditing Practices Board. Our report on the charity’s full annual financial statements describes the basis of our opinion on those financial statements. Opinion

In our opinion the summary financial statement is consistent with the full annual financial statements of Oxford Institute for Energy Studies for the year ended 31 December 2011 and complies with the applicable requirements of section 427 of the Companies Act 2006, and the regulations made thereunder.

Jonathan Cross FCA (Senior Statutory Auditor) for and on behalf of Everett & Son Chartered Accountants & Statutory Auditors 35 Paul Street London EC2A 4UQ

11th May 2012 54 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

31.12.11 31.12.10 Unrestricted Endowment Total Total funds funds funds funds as restated £ £ £ £ Incoming Resources Incoming resources from generated funds Voluntary income 583,937 - 583,937 464,553 Incoming resources from charitable activities 631,123 - 631,123 631,123 Incoming resources from investments Government Stocks 1,374 - 1,374 1,524 International Bonds 4,012 - 4,012 4,451 Corporate Bonds 48,350 - 48,350 30,019 Quoted Securities 85,353 - 85,353 77,547 Deposit account interest 148 - 148 3,068 Other incoming resources 5,500 - 5,500 5,500 Total incoming resources 1,359,797 - 1,359,797 1,277,241 Resources Expended Costs of generating funds Costs of generating voluntary income 23,214 - 23,214 14,744 Charitable activities Projects and publications 1,443,398 - 1,443,398 1,282,361 Governance costs 53,129 - 53,129 62,129 Other resources expended - - - 15,433 Total resources expended 1,519,741 - 1,519,741 1,374,667 NET INCOMING/ (159,944) - (159,944) (97,426) (OUTGOING) RESOURCES Realised gain/(losses) on investment assets 65,898 - 65,898 107,857 Net income/(expenditure) (94,046) - (94,046) 10,431 Unrealised gains/losses on investment assets (57,094) (424,796) (481,890) 533,161 Net movement in funds (151,140) (424,796) (575,936) 543,592 RECONCILIATION OF FUNDS Total funds brought forward 2,251,761 3,259,466 6,054,819 5,511,227 TOTAL FUNDS CARRIED FORWARD 2,480,029 3,574,790 5,478,883 6,054,819

All incoming resources and resources expended arise from continuing activities. 2009 Annual Report 55

BALANCE SHEET At 31 December 2011 31.12.10 31.12.09 Unrestricted Endowment Total Total funds funds funds funds as restated £ £ £ £ FIXED ASSETS Tangible assets 48,085 - 48,085 66,347 Investments 1,989,420 3,116,659 5,106,079 5,633,961

2,037,505 3,116,659 5,154,164 5,700,308 CURRENT ASSETS Debtors 6,393 - 6,393 12,418 Prepayments and accrued income 186,639 - 186,639 209,154 Cash at bank 224,723 33,335 258,058 240,087

417,755 33,335 451,090 461,659 CREDITORS Amounts falling due within one year (126,371) - (126,371) (107,148)

NET CURRENT ASSETS/(LIABILITIES) 291,384 33,335 324,719 354,511

TOTAL ASSETS LESS CURRENT LIABILITIES 2,328,889 3,149,994 5,478,883 6,054,819

NET ASSETS 2,328,889 3,149,994 5,478,883 6,054,819

FUNDS Unrestricted funds 2,328,889 2,480,029 Endowment funds 3,149,994 3,259,466

TOTAL FUNDS 5,478,883 6,054,819

The summary accounts were approved by the Board of Trustees on 13th May 2011 and were signed on its behalf by:

A. Lajous – Trustee Prof. R. Ainsworth – Trustee 56 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Members The University of Oxford

St Antony’s College, Oxford

St Catherine’s College, Oxford

Nuffield College, Oxford

Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC)

Swedish Energy Agency

Institut Français du Pétrole

Secretary of State for Trade and Industry (UK)

Arab Banking Corporation

Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo

Rogalandsforskning, Norway

Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia

Canadian Petroleum Studies Inc.

The State of Kuwait

The OIES is registered as a company limited by guarantee (without share capital). It is also a registered charity that operates as a non-profit educational organization. It is conceived as an association of various Members, who may be divided into two groups. On the one hand are the University of Oxford and three of its colleges; on the other hand is a selection of governments, public institutions, and international and regional organizations, from oil-producing and oil- consuming countries. With the exception of the University and its colleges, each Member has made a once-and-for-all financial contribution. These sums are treated as an endowment, providing for the long-term security of the OIES. All Members of the Institute have the following rights:

• to appoint one or several representatives on the Board of Governors. This gives the Member an active part in the management and supervision of the Institute since the Board is the body empowered with all executive functions;

• to attend the Annual General Meeting of the Institute;

• to enter into any form of cooperation with the Institute that is approved by the Board of Governors, such as the organization of joint seminars, joint research projects, or exchange visits between scholars of the Institute and scholars from the member countries. 2009 Annual Report 57

Governors and Trustees Mr Adrián Lajous Chairman of the Board

Dr Christopher Adam Fellow, St Cross College, Oxford

Professor Roger Ainsworth Master, St Catherine’s College, Oxford, Vice Chairman of the Board

Mr Haitham Al Ghais Manager, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, London

Dr Ian Goldin Director, Oxford Martin School, Oxford

Professor Roger Goodman Head, Social Sciences Divisional Office, Oxford

Mr Tomas Kåberger Director General, Swedish Energy Agency (appointed December 2010)

Mr Jean-Luc Karnik IFP Energies Nouvelles, France (resigned December 2011)

Dr Abdullah Al-Kuwaiz Vice Chairman of the Board

Mr Rolf Magne Larsen Senior Vice President, Statoil, Norway

Professor Margaret Macmillan Warden, St Antony’s College, Oxford

Mr Rasheed Mohammed Al-Maraj Governor, Central Bank of Bahrain

Dr Anwar Ali Al-Mudhaf CEO, Al Razzi Holding KSCC

Dr Masahisa Naitoh Former Chairman and CEO, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Mr Abbas Ali Naqi Secretary General, OAPEC

HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud Assistant Minister for Petroleum Affairs, Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia

Dr Juan Suarez Coppel Director General, PEMEX, Mexico

Mr Nader Sultan Director, the Oxford Energy Seminar

Mr Jay Thornton Executive Vice President – Energy Supply, Trading and Development, Suncor Energy, Canada

Mr Paul Westin Energy Analysis Dept., Swedish Energy Agency (appointed September 2011)

Mr Graham White Director, International Energy and Technology, Department of Energy and Climate Change, London (resigned July 2011)

Mr Laurence Whitehead Fellow, Nuffield College, Oxford

The Honorary President is Robert Mabro

The Company Secretary is Ian Wybrew-Bond

The auditors are Messrs Everett & Son, of 35 Paul Street, London EC2. 58 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Contributors Membership Contributions Petróleos de Venezuela OAPEC Petronas Energiforskningsnämnden Phillips Institut Français du Pétrole Qatar General Petroleum Corporation UK Department of Energy Ruhrgas European Union Shell International Arab Banking Corporation Shell Oil (USA) Arab Petroleum Investments Sohio Corporation (APICORP) Sumitomo Metal Industries The Institute of Energy Texaco Economics, Japan Texas Eastern Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo Tonen Corporation Rogalandsforskning Government of Kuwait Current Benefactors Government of Saudi Arabia Bahrain Petroleum Canadian Petroleum Studies Inc. BP plc Cairn Energy India Inauguration Gifts 1983 Cheniere Ashland Oil Chevron Corporation Atlantic Richfield ConocoPhilips Co. Barclays Deloitte LLP Britoil ENI Chemical Bank Energy Intelligence Citicorp ExxonMobil Corporation Conoco Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Elf Aquitaine Corporation (JOGMEC) ENI/AGIP Kansai Electric Power Co, Inc. Foster Wheeler Marathon Petroleum LLC Fuji Oil McKinsey & Co, Inc. Gelsenberg Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) General Electric (USA) Mitsui & Company International Energy Development Corporation Olayan Europe Ltd INA Universal Petrobras Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica PDV Europa BV Japan National Oil Corporation Reliance Europe Ltd Kernforschungsanlage Julich Repsol YPF Marathon Shell International Maraven Royal Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway Mobil Schlumberger Morgan Stanley Organizacion Techint Nomura Research Institute Oxford Economics Olayan Group Talisman Energy Inc. Petrobras TOTAL S.A. 2011 Annual Report 59

Past Benefactors JKX Oil & Gas Ministry of Petroleum, Norway Amerada Hess National Grid Transco ARCO (Atlantic Richfield) Petoro Arthur Andersen Qatar Petroleum Ashland Oil StatoilHydro British Gas TOTAL Cosmo Oil Vattenfall Dubai Aluminium EnCana Corporation Past Sponsors of the Natural ENI Gas Research Programme Enterprise Oil Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co. Foster Wheeler Int’l Corp Nigerian National Petroleum Gulf International Bank Corporation Halliburton Company Marathon Oil HSBC Investment Bank plc RWE Supply & Trading JP Morgan Chase Marathon Ashland Sponsor of the Colombia Morgan Stanley Project (2011–2012) Murphy Oil Corporation Foreign & Commonwealth Office, UK Neste Oil OYJ Osaka Gas Sponsors of the China Phillips Petroleum Project (2008) Schroder Salomon Smith Climate Strategies/DFID Barney (Citigroup) Swedish Energy Administration Sun Company Tokyo Electric Power Company Sponsor of the Synergy Tonen Corporation Project (2003) TNK–BP European Union Tyumen Oil Sponsor of the Cost Benefit Sponsors of the Natural Analysis of the Energy Supply Gas Research Programme Security Policy (2003) BG Group CPB Netherlands Bureau for BP plc Economic Policy Analysis Centrica Sponsor of the Saudi Cheniere Energy Research Project (2003) Dong Energy Saudi Petroleum Overseas, Ltd E.ON Ruhrgas Electricité de France Energy Delta Institute ENI GDF Suez Gazprom Marketing and Trading Iberdrola 60 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Sponsor of the Framing of CEPSA Future Emission Limitation Deminex Commitments: A Pilot Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Study on the Evolution of the Mobil Sales & Supply UNFCCC Greenhouse Gas Saudi Aramco Sonatrach Mitigation Regime (2003) TOTAL Swiss Agency for the Environment, Veba Oel AG Forests and Landscape Additional Sponsors Additional Sponsors of of the US Gulf Oil the CFD Project (1995) Market Study (2000) CEPSA Ashland International Ltd Esso Petroleum Equiva Trading Co. IPE Koch Industries Mobil Kuwait Petroleum Corporation OK Petroleum McKinsey Veba Oel AG Morgan Stanley Additional Sponsors of the PMI Comercio Internacional (Pemex) Oil in Asia Project (1994) Saudi Aramco Apicorp Taurus Petroleum Services Ltd Bahrain National Oil Company TotalFinaElf Exxon Sponsor of the Kyoto Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Protocol and Oil Ministry of Energy and Industry, Qatar Markets Study (1999) Mobil Morgan Stanley Royal Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway Pemex Petron Additional Sponsors Saudi Aramco of the European Gas Statoil Markets Study (1998) BP Amoco Gas Additional Sponsors of the Iberdrola Brent Market Study (1991) In Salah Gas European Union Nera International Energy Agency Statoil Mobil TOTAL ÖMV AG OPEC Additional Sponsors of Pemex the Mediterranean Oil Petro-Canada Market Study (1997) Statoil Anadarko Petroleum Corporation UK Department of Trade & Industry Atlantic Richfield BHP Petroleum 2011 Annual Report 61

Sponsors of the Oil Product Pemex Prices Study (1988) Petromin Qatar General Petroleum Corporation Britoil Royal Ministry of Petroleum European Union and Energy, Norway Exxon Shell Oil (USA) Kuwait Petroleum International Shell UK Mobil Statoil Ruhrgas Sun Statoil Svenska Petroleum Texaco UK Department of Energy Veba Oel AG Veba Oel AG Sponsors of the Gas Development in LDCs Grants Study (1986) Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development Arab Banking Corporation Barrows British Gas/UK Department of Energy Bahrain Monetary Agency British Petroleum Burmah Petroleum Fuels Ltd Dubai Aluminium European Union Elf Aquitaine ESRC ENI/AGIP GCC European Union Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Exxon Mr Ali Jaidah Foster Wheeler Kuwait Petroleum International Gaz de France Ministry of Finance, Saudi Arabia OPEC Fund Morgan Stanley Petro-Canada OAPEC Ruhrgas OPEC Fund for International Shell International Development Statoil Oxford Energy Seminar US Department of Energy Mr Abdul Mohsen Qattan World Bank The State of Qatar Shell Foundation for Sponsors of the North Sustainable Development Sea Study (1984) The United Nations Amerada Hess The World Bank Apicorp British Petroleum Britoil Elf Aquitaine Esso Europe European Union Mobil OPEC Secretariat 62 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Recent Publications Recent publications can be obtained by contacting the OIES directly. A complete list of publications and secure online purchasing are available on the Institute’s website at www.oxfordenergy.org Books: Published by Oxford University Press for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies The Transit Dimension of EU Energy Security: (OIES 39) Russian gas transit across Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova Katja Yafimava, 2011

Natural Gas Markets in the Middle East and North Africa (OIES 38) Bassam Fattouh and Jonathan Stern (eds), 2011

UK Energy Policy and the End of Market Fundamentalism (OIES 37) Ian Rutledge and Philip Wright (eds), 2011 Monographs and Working Papers: Published by Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Oil Revenues and Economic Development: The Case of Rajasthan, India (WPM 43) Anupama Sen and Paul Segal, 2011

The Oil Trading Markets, 2003–2010: (WPM 42) Analysis of market behaviour and possible policy responses Adair Turner, Jon Farrimond, and Jonathan Hill, 2011

The Strategic Implications of Russia’s Eastern Oil Resources (WPM 41) James Henderson, 2011

An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System (WPM 40) Bassam Fattouh, 2011

The Implications of the Arab Uprisings for Oil and Gas Markets (MEP2) Hakim Darbouche and Bassam Fattouh, 2011

Energy Poverty in the Arab World: The Case of Yemen (MEP 1) Bassam Fattouh and Laura El-Katiri, 2011

Interlinking the Arab Gulf: Opportunities and Challenges of (EL 8) GCC Electricity Market Cooperation Laura El-Katiri, 2011

The Outlook for U.S. Gas Prices in 2020: Henry Hub at $3 or $10? (NG 58) Michelle Michot Foss, 2011

Domestic Gas Prices in Russia – Towards Export Netback? (NG 57) James Henderson, 2011

The Pricing Debate over Russian Gas Exports to China (NG 56) James Henderson, 2011

The Spanish Gas Market: Demand Trends Post Recession (NG 55) and Consequences for the Industry Anouk Honoré, 2011 2009 Annual Report 63

The Impact of Import Dependency and Wind Generation on (NG 54) UK Gas Demand and Security of Supply to 2025 Howard Rogers, 2011

Elusive Potential: Natural Gas Consumption in the CIS (NG 53) And the Quest for Efficiency by Simon Pirani, 20011

Security of Gas Supply in South Eastern Europe (NG 52) Potential Contribution of Planned Pipelines, LNG, and Storage Anastasios Giamouridis and Spiros Paleoyannis, 2011

Does natural gas need a decarbonisation strategy? (NG 51) The cases of the Netherlands and the UK Floris van Foreest, 2011

Natural Gas in India: An Analysis of Policy (NG 50) Anil Jain and Anupama Sen, 2011

The Transition to Hub-Based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe (NG 49) Jonathan Stern & Howard Rogers, 2011

Algeria’s shifting gas export strategy: Between policy and market constraints (NG 48) Hakim Darbouche, 2011

Economic recession and natural gas demand in Europe: what happened in 2008–2010? (NG 47) Anouk Honoré, 2011

Cumulative Carbon Emissions and Climate Change: (EV 57) Has the Economics of Climate Policies Lost Contact with the Physics? John Rhys, 2011 Other published journal articles, books and book chapters

Rogers, Howard, ‘Trends in Global Gas Pricing’, 20th World Petroleum Congress, 2011.

Kalyhuznova, Yelena, ‘The National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK): From accumulation to stress-test to global future’, Energy Policy, 2011, vol. 39, issue 10, 6650–7.

Kalyhuznova, Yelena, with Christian Nygaard, ‘Special Vehicles of State Intervention in Russia and Kazakhstan’, Comparative Economic Studies, 2011, 53, 55–77.

Kalyhuznova, Yelena, ‘Eurasia: Natural Resources and Economies’, Comparative Economics Studies, 2011 53, (1–4).

Müller, Benito, ‘Differentiating historic responsibilities for climate change: Exploring the case of China’, with Christian Ellermann, and Niklas Höhne, in P. Harris (ed.), China and global climate change: Ethics, responsibility and environmental policy, Bristol, Policy Press (2011).

Müller, Benito, ‘UNFCCC – The Future of the Process: Remedial Action on Process Ownership and Political Guidance’, Climate Strategies Brief, February 2011.

Müller, Benito, ‘Time to Roll Up the Sleeves – Even Higher!: Longer-term climate finance after Cancun’, Oxford Energy and Environment Brief republished in Environmental Liability, Issue 1, 2011: and in part as ‘Roll up the sleeves even higher’ in Trading Carbon, Vol. 5, Issue 2, March 2011. 64 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Müller, Benito, ‘An American predicament that threatens the Green Climate Fund’, IIED guest contribution, November 2011.

Müller, Benito, ‘Durban: A very personal Plea: America’s Kyoto Trauma and Pershing’s Lesson’, CPO17 Outreach, December 2011.

Pirani, Simon, ‘What makes Russian capitalism: a response to Ruslan Dzarasov’, in Debatte: journal of contemporary central and eastern Europe, 2011 nos. 1–2.

Yenikeyeff, Shamil, ‘Energy Interests of the “Great Powers” in Central Asia: Cooperation or Conflict?’, International Spectator, Vol. 46, No.3, September 2011.

Yenikeyeff, Shamil, ‘The contest for control: oil and gas management in Russia’, (co-authored) in Paul Collier and Tony Venables, (eds.), Plundered Nations? Successes and Failures in Natural Resource Extraction, Palgrave Macmillan, 2011. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies 57 Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6FA, United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1865 311377, Fax: +44 (0)1865 310527, General enquiries: [email protected] Web: www.oxfordenergy.org Registered charity No. 286084