ANNUAL REPORT 2011 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Annual Report 2011 2 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies About the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), a Recognized Independent Centre of the University of Oxford, was founded in 1982 as a centre for advanced research into the social science aspects of energy. A non-profit making charity, it is distinguished from similar institutions elsewhere in the world in two important ways. First, the Institute is committed to achieving the highest academic standards. The University of Oxford and three of its colleges – St Antony’s, St Catherine’s, and Nuffield – are Members of the Institute and occupy seats on the Board of Governors. Second, the Institute is committed to the idea of cooperation between scholars representing different sides of the international energy debate. Members of the Institute represent both the oil-producing and oil-consuming nations. This international character is also reflected in the composition of the research team. Such cooperation is intended to lead to more informed assumptions concerning the behaviour, motivations, and objectives of the various agents operating in the international energy scene. This combination of academic excellence with attention to pressing real-life problems in the energy world provides a unique forum in which study and discussion can take place. Research carried out at the Institute is designed to encompass the following disciplines: • the economics of petroleum, gas, coal, nuclear power, solar, and other forms of renewable energy; • the politics and sociology of energy; • the international relations of oil- and gas-producing and consuming nations; • the economic development of oil- and gas-producing countries and the energy problems of other developing countries; and • the economics and politics of the environment in its relationship with energy. As a general policy the OIES concentrates on research into energy issues of international significance or which have implications for the interface of producers and consumers. 57 Woodstock Road Oxford OX2 6FA United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1865 311377 Fax: +44 (0)1865 310527 E-mail: [email protected] www: www.oxfordenergy.org Registered Charity No. 286084 Recognized Independent Centre of the University of Oxford 2011 Annual Report 3 Contents 4 Message from the Chairman 6 Director’s Report 9 Research 31 Journals and Website 32 Lectures and Seminars 34 Library 35 Research Team and Staff 43 Visiting Research Fellows, Research Advisers, Contributing Authors, and Students 53 Accounts 56 Members 57 Governors and Trustees 58 Contributors 62 Recent Publications 4 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Message from the Chairman In November of 2012 the OIES will in the next thirty years and more. celebrate its thirtieth anniversary. Over However, we must have the flexibility this period it has benefitted from a to understand their development stable institutional environment that more fully in the context of growing allowed it to evolve productively environmental and social concerns, and build its reputation in energy as the imperatives of a lower carbon studies, focusing on policy and global economy will drive energy applied research. The Institute has policy in new directions and develop maintained strong links with industry, cleaner sources of energy. Although governments, and multilateral the Institute’s basic approach to energy organizations, and has developed into issues has been distinctly global, it a platform that provides context to has focused on specific regions and major energy issues, identifies global countries to enrich overall views. and regional trends, and performs Over the years, producing countries analysis in these areas. It disseminates with large resource endowments its work through its own publications, have been of particular interest and its two sister organizations – the they will continue to be a key object Oxford Energy Seminar and the of its research effort. However, Oxford Energy Policy Club, as well as oil markets, in spite of temporary the publications of its staff and their segmentations, are global in nature. interaction with industry and other The extent of natural gas markets has stakeholders. Since the Institute was been more limited, but LNG and long- established it has sustained a strong distance pipelines are reducing its commitment to deepening the dialogue fragmentation. These characteristics on energy issues between consumers explain the approach that was taken. and producers, governments and industry, the academic community The establishment, development, and and decision makers. As a recognized management of the Institute have independent centre of Oxford not been easy tasks. They required University it seeks to capture the imagination, an enduring commitment, benefits of its links to the University and a clear sense of purpose. Its and to its Member Colleges – Nuffield, success has been highly dependent St. Antony’s, and St. Catherine’s. on two individuals, with their own The Institute also hopes to bring to specific skill sets and relationships. the Oxford academic community Robert Mabro was its founder and a better understanding of relevant long-time Director and Christopher and pressing energy sector issues. Allsopp its Director since 2005. We are deeply indebted to them. Anniversaries like this one can be a good moment to review the Jonathan Stern’s contribution deserves Institute’s accomplishments and, special mention. He set up and headed more importantly, to reflect on its the natural gas research programme future. This exercise should help us as its Director. A significant number identify new issues and problems of timely books, articles, and working in the energy field that should be papers attest to the productivity of researched. It would also allow this programme, as well as the strong us to adapt to new circumstances team he formed and the important and build on our past success. Our network of industry participants that central interests will continue to be he structured. He has now been ably in the oil and natural gas industries, succeeded by Howard Rogers. Bassam given their expected importance Fattouh, the Director of the Oil and the 2011 Annual Report 5 Middle East Programme, has rapidly built a reputation through his work on the international oil pricing system and has written well-regarded articles that have appeared in academic journals, in books published by the Institute, and in a series of working papers. He is actively involved in networking in oil-producing countries, especially in the Gulf and North Africa, and in both the Oxford Energy Seminar and the Oxford Energy Policy Club. In the last few years the staff of the Institute has been growing as a result of the recruitment effort led by Christopher Allsopp. The number of research fellows and visiting research fellows, as well as external research advisers, has increased gradually as part of our mid-term objective of doubling the size of the Institute. Further growth will necessarily require additional support and funding from our benefactors. At the same time the Director has managed with the same dedicated administrative staff. These developments bode well for the future of the Institute as it reaches its thirtieth year. Adrián Lajous Chairman of the Board 6 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Director’s Report The main objectives of the OIES are Recruitment and staff to undertake advanced research on There has been very little turnover of energy issues of global relevance. As research staff. Lavan Mahadeva joined an educational charity, the Institute the OIES as a Senior Research Fellow in is committed to the dissemination August 2011. He leads macroeconomic of the results of research as widely research at the Institute, his research as possible, both in academia and focuses on the interaction of energy in the world at large. The Institute’s markets with the macroeconomy and research in 2011 continued to examine international finance. We welcomed the economics, the politics, and the back Juan Carlos Boué, whose current sociology of energy with a focus research concerns the governance on oil and natural gas. Its research mechanisms and legal structure spanned the international relations underpinning the international oil between producers and consumers industry. Amongst other projects, he of energy, the economic development will working in the priority area of of producing nations, and the the energy sector in Brazil. Professor geopolitical aspects of all these issues, Sir Chris Llwellyn-Smith and Dr alongside the economics and politics Ali Aissaoui were appointed Senior of the environment in relation to Research Advisers. Altogether, energy, including climate change. over 40 researchers are listed in this Report – many of whom are part Developments during the year 2011 time. The mix reflects the Institute’s illustrate the interactions between policy of recruiting both experienced international developments and global researchers, many with a background energy markets. The global economy, in industry, as well as academics from a after the optimism of the recovery variety of social science backgrounds. year 2010, slowed in 2011, especially in OECD countries. However, geopolitical Priorities for recruitment include worries, especially surrounding the further appointments relating effects of the Arab Spring, worked in to oil, and to the economics and the opposite way, supporting oil prices, geopolitics of the Middle