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Navigating the Future of Work TECHNOLOGY AT WORK v4.0 Navigating the Future of Work Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions June 2019 Citi is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary conversation – accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice. As our premier thought leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our readers navigate the global economy’s most demanding challenges and to anticipate future themes and trends in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the thought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our firm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or a solicitations to buy or sell any financial instruments. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at www.citi.com/citigps. Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions June 2019 Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey Rob Garlick Oxford Martin Citi Fellow Head of Citi Research EMEA [email protected] [email protected] Citi Authors Elise Badoy, CFA Andrew Baum, MD Jason B Bazinet Deputy Head of EMEA Research Global Head of Healthcare Research Global Head of Media & Communications Research Willem Buiter Jason Channell Peter Charrington Special Economic Advisor Global Head of Sustainable Finance Global Head of Private Bank Johanna Chua Michael Corbat Elizabeth Curmi Head of Asia Pac Economic & Market Chief Executive Officer, Citigroup Global Thematic Analyst Analysis Christopher Danely Beth Devin Tina Fordham Global Co-Head of Technology Head of Innovation Network & Emerging Chief Global Political Analyst Research Technology, Citi Ventures Ronit Ghose, CFA Aaron Guy Terry Hogan Global Head of Banks Research Europe Real Estate/Property & REITs Global Head of Diversity & Talent Research Management David Lubin Mark A Manduca Catherine L Mann Head of Emerging Markets Economics Head of European Transport & Leisure Citi’s Global Chief Economist Research Guillaume Menuet Itay Michaeli Edward L Morse Euro Area Economist Global Head of Autos Research Global Head of Commodities Strategy Kiichi Murashima Jenny Ping Ying Qin Japan Economist European Infrastructure Analyst Global Thematic Research Team Ebrahim Rahbari Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA Thomas A Singlehurst, CFA Chief G10 Currency Strategist & Global U.S. Payments, Processors & Head of European Education & Media Head of FX Analysis & Content IT Services Analyst Research Ed Skyler Philip Watson Martin Wilkie Head of Global Public Affairs, Citigroup Chief Innovation Officer, Private Bank Global Head of Capital Goods Research Expert Authors José María Álvarez-Pallete López Stuart Crighton Paul Daugherty Telefónica Cleartrip Accenture Aart de Geus Dr. Corinne Flick Nathan Furr Bertelsmann Stiftung Convoco Foundation INSEAD Ian Goldin Sean Hagerty Bernard Looney Oxford University Vanguard Europe BP plc Dr. Pippa Malmgren The Rt Hon. Anne Milton Vas Narasimhan, PhD H robotics Member of Parliament, U.K. Novartis Adam Posen Anne Richards Dan Schulman Peterson Institute Fidelity International PayPal Sir Anthony Seldon Matthew Sigelman Anne Spackman The University of Buckingham Burning Glass Technologies Chief Executive, Career Ready Lawrence H Summers Wang Tao Hitesh Thakrar, CFA President Emeritus of Harvard Ping An Good Doctor Syncona Investment Management University The Rt Hon. Lord David Willetts Kai Yu Member of Parliament, U.K. China Education Group June 2019 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 3 TECHNOLOGY AT WORK v4.0 Navigating the Future of Work Change is necessary for progress, but with it comes risk. Winston Churchill once commented “if you don’t take change by the hand, it will take you by the throat.” The opportunities and risks multiply in our era of rapid change, driven by a hyper connected and digitizing world that is too fast for many. When Citi and the Oxford Martin School co-wrote the first Technology at Work Citi GPS report in 2015 it highlighted how technology, including automation, robotics, digitization and AI, was sweeping through many industries, but with it came a growing risk to jobs — Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne’s analysis at the Oxford Martin School highlighted that 47% of U.S. employment was susceptible to automation and has been called one of the most influential studies of our time. By Rob Garlick the time Technology at Work 2 had been written in 2016, we (together with the Head of Citi Research EMEA World Bank) identified employment risks averaged 57% in the OECD, including India at 69% and China at 77%. Many articles and books since then have warned about this growing threat and it’s easy to see automation impacting jobs all around us, yet a decade on from the Great Financial Crisis we have record high employment levels across many OECD countries. So is the fear over-hyped? As the next generation prepares to enter the world of work, are there also big employment opportunities to offset the risks? As Carl explains in the first chapter of this report, while history has shown progress creates as well as destroys jobs, the process can be very difficult for large parts of society for a very long time. Carl tackles this with great insight in his new book The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation. An additional problem during technological revolutions is it can be easier to see risks to current jobs than to predict jobs yet to be invented. This report is designed to help provide a clearer vision of what could be an uncertain employment future. On a sector and economy basis, Citi experts, whose job it is to help investors predict and influence the future, provide their thoughts on the job and skill trends ahead and on changes, risks, and opportunities. Chapter 3 provides a unique collection of advice. We borrow from Isaac Newton “If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.” What better way to be informed about what the future will look like than hear from some of the leaders who are inventing it. This includes: 12 CEOs from around the world; several experts on innovation; the UK Minister for Skills and Apprenticeships; one of the leading educators in China; the former Minister for Universities and Science in the U.K.; the former Treasury Secretary of the U.S. and other leading economists; leaders of foundations; experts in diversity and inclusion; and several authors of related books on this topic. We are extremely grateful to this extraordinary group of experts who have provided their wisdom because they care about helping the next generation and finding solutions. The other good news is that plenty of solutions do exist, unlike the first industrial revolution, most people now have the ability to vote for the society they want to live in. Since the industrial revolution, GDP has risen over 100 fold and innovation has brought huge progress in health, prosperity, and betterment of life. In a 2016 survey, we found 76% of investors surveyed described themselves at techno-optimists, but many were also understandably techno-anxious in this era of disruptive innovation. The report is designed to either dig into or dip into, with a simple aim to help to take ‘change by the hand’ and find tailwinds to make your journey easier in the future of work. © 2019 Citigroup THE ISSUES, THE GUIDANCE, AND SOME TOOLS TO HELP THE ISSUES THE GUIDANCE Two-thirds of jobs that now require data skills are jobs that have long existed” “Transferable skills and vocational Technology is transforming every aspect of our abilities are and lives at a pace and scale that is without precedent” still will be equally important” Labor mobility is down sharply in the U.S. “Retain the human — people are not moving to where the jobs are” spirit of curiosity and compassion while learning the digital Two facts: we will have six different careers in our skills that can make lifetime and 60% of those jobs do not yet exist” you competitive” “If there’s any AI will not mean fewer jobs for humans, but different secret recipe to jobs in which people and machines collaborate” success, we say it’s grit” “My broad advice to young people is don’t be fungible” TOOLS TO COMBAT LABOR MARKET DISRUPTION CAUSED BY AUTOMATION “Embracing the notion that there will be constant change across every facet of life is Revamp education critical to navigating the future” “Workers need a Reinvigorate deep humanity business dynamism specialization more than a deep technology one” Remove barriers to prosperity “It is important to be future-oriented and to work out concepts and visions” Promote civic “Develop participation essential life skills” Improve training and employment support Rethink work Increase importance of safety nets and argue for more ex-post redistribution © 2019 Citigroup 6 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions June 2019 Contents Chapter 1: The Technology Trap 7 Authors 115 What History Tells Us About the Coming AI Paul Daugherty 116 Revolution 8 Ian Goldin 117 Chapter 2: The Future of Work – Sir Anthony Seldon 118 Rt Hon. Lord David Willetts 119 Industry & Country Perspectives 27 Foundations 121 Media 28 Citi Foundation 122 Finance 30 Career Ready 122 Healthcare 34 Aart de Geus 123 Technology 37 Convoco Foundation 124 Capital Goods 39 Diversity and Inclusion 125 Autos 41 Terry Hogan 126 Infrastructure 44 Tina Fordham 127 Real Estate 47 Dr. Pippa Malmgren 128 Energy 50 Finance 131 Sustainability 54 Fidelity International 132 Consumer 58 Vanguard Europe 132 Travel & Leisure 61 Citi Private Bank 133 The Gig Economy 65 Innovation 135 Education 69 Citi Ventures 136 The United States 73 INSEAD 137 Syncona Investment Management 138 Western Europe 76 CEEMEA 79 Chapter 4: What Can Be Done? 141 Asia 82 What Can Be Done? 142 Japan 86 Conclusion 151 Cities 89 Chapter 3: Views from a Selection of Experts 93 Corporates 95 BP plc 96 Burning Glass Technologies 97 China Education Group 98 Citigroup 99 Cleartrip 100 Novartis 101 PayPal 102 Ping An Good Doctor 103 Telefónica 104 Policy Makers 107 Lawrence Summers 108 Rt Hon.
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