Public Transcript of the Hearing Held on 26 March 2015 in the Case Of

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Public Transcript of the Hearing Held on 26 March 2015 in the Case Of 20150326_STL-11-01_T_T136_OFF_PUB_EN 1/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Procedural Matters (Open Session) Page 1 1 Special Tribunal for Lebanon 2 In the case of The Prosecutor v. Ayyash, Badreddine, Merhi, 3 Oneissi, and Sabra 4 STL-11-01 5 Presiding Judge David Re, Judge Janet Nosworthy, 6 Judge Micheline Braidy, Judge Walid Akoum, and 7 Judge Nicola Lettieri - [Trial Chamber] 8 Thursday, 26 March 2015 - [Trial Hearing] 9 [Open Session] 10 [The witness takes the stand] 11 --- Upon commencing at 10.05 a.m. 12 THE REGISTRAR: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon is sitting in an 13 open session in the case of the Prosecutor versus Ayyash, Badreddine, 14 Merhi, Oneissi, and Sabra, case number STL-11-01. 15 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: Good morning to you, Mr. Siniora. We hope 16 that you are refreshed. 17 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Good morning. 18 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: We, of course, note you're kind offer to 19 keep sitting yesterday, which, I think, showed you have the energy of a 20 man one-third of your age, but we couldn't go on yesterday. So we'll go 21 as far as we can with your evidence today. 22 The appearances today are Mr. Cameron for the Prosecution. For 23 the Legal Representatives of the Victims, we have Mr. Mattar and 24 Ms. Abdelsater-Abusamra. Mr. Aoun is for Mr. Ayyash. Mr. Korkmaz, who 25 is continuing with his questioning, is for Mr. Badreddine. Thursday, 26 March 2015 STL-11-01 Interpretation serves to facilitate communication. Only the original speech is authentic. 20150326_STL-11-01_T_T136_OFF_PUB_EN 2/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Witness: Fouad Siniora –PRH108 (Resumed) (Open Session) Page 2 Cross-examination by Mr. Korkmaz (Continued) 1 Mr. Larochelle for Mr. Oneissi. Mr. Roberts for Mr. Sabra. Mr. Khalil - 2 good morning - for Mr. Merhi. And we have one representative of the 3 Defence Office here. 4 Mr. Korkmaz, you've had, like Mr. Siniora, overnight to reflect 5 upon a number of things including where we're up to and how many 6 questions you think you still have left. 7 Can you give us a little progress report? 8 MR. KORKMAZ: [Interpretation] Good morning, Your Honours. Good 9 morning to all in the courtroom. 10 Good morning, Witness. 11 The team and myself have discussed this situation. We do not 12 think that we can reduce our cross-examination to less than two days. In 13 fact, we need two days at a minimum. 14 Regarding the number of questions, we are going to try to keep 15 them to as small a number as possible, but there are a large number of 16 items which we would like to have clarified and would like to take 17 advantage of the presence of the prime minister to do so. 18 WITNESS: FOUAD SINIORA [Resumed] 19 [Witness answered through interpreter] 20 Cross-examination by Mr. Korkmaz [Continued] 21 Q. [Interpretation] Very good. Good morning. 22 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: You've heard the good news, Mr. Siniora. 23 Just one observation: Of course, the shorter the questions and 24 the shorter the answer, the shorter the time we spend here, may I say. 25 MR. KORKMAZ: [Interpretation] Very good. Thursday, 26 March 2015 STL-11-01 Interpretation serves to facilitate communication. Only the original speech is authentic. 20150326_STL-11-01_T_T136_OFF_PUB_EN 3/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Witness: Fouad Siniora –PRH108 (Resumed) (Open Session) Page 3 Cross-examination by Mr. Korkmaz (Continued) 1 Q. Prime Minister, yesterday we were discussing the extension of the 2 president's tenure, President Lahoud. I would like to put a little 3 question to you. Did Mr. Hariri bring you into his confidence as regards 4 his negotiations with the Syrians regarding Mr. Lahoud? 5 A. I don't really understand whether you're talking about 6 negotiations with President Lahoud? Do you mean regarding the extension 7 of the term? I do not think that there were negotiations with 8 President Lahoud, and therefore I do not know. I do not know anything 9 about this. As for the Syrians, it was within the limits that I referred 10 to earlier on. 11 Q. What do you mean by that? 12 A. I've already said everything I know on more than one occasion 13 during my presence here. I am not aware that there were any negotiations 14 with President Lahoud. As for the Syrians, this is what I heard from him 15 and I have told you about it. I have said everything I know. And 16 therefore, if he was trying later on to find a solution to form a cabinet 17 and the -- his efforts were not fruitful and what happened had happened. 18 Q. Do you agree with me that those negotiations were largely based 19 on a battle of force between the parties? In terms of the extension of 20 the tenure, was Rafik Hariri requesting greater influence in the 21 formation of the government in exchange for agreement? 22 A. This is what I mentioned and what I said. After the cabinet 23 meeting during which the extension has been decided, there was a 24 discussion between him and between a Syrian representative, I do not know 25 who it was but I think it was Rustom Ghazaleh, and on that basis it was Thursday, 26 March 2015 STL-11-01 Interpretation serves to facilitate communication. Only the original speech is authentic. 20150326_STL-11-01_T_T136_OFF_PUB_EN 4/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Witness: Fouad Siniora –PRH108 (Resumed) (Open Session) Page 4 Cross-examination by Mr. Korkmaz (Continued) 1 decided or it was said that there will be a new Lahoud. And as I already 2 mentioned, it turned out that this was not true. 3 Q. Yes, indeed. As you just said now and as you said yesterday, 4 each time there was a standoff, Mr. Hariri discussed directly with 5 Mr. Ghazaleh to smooth out the confrontation; is that correct? 6 A. That's right. The Syrians were -- the Syrian regime was playing 7 the role of -- on the one hand and in my assessment, they were trying to 8 keep the two parties apart; and at the same time, they were trying to 9 achieve a rapprochement between the two. So it's as if they were 10 contributing to igniting the fire and at the same time they were offering 11 their services to put out the fire. 12 Q. Are you aware of the answer given by Mr. Ghazaleh at that time, 13 his response to the favour or the request for Mr. Hariri? Did 14 Mr. Ghazaleh not ask him to intervene with the media and his politicians 15 to reduce the criticism of Mr. Lahoud? 16 A. I do not have any specific information regarding the details of 17 every meeting, what happened, what was requested. I don't have any 18 information. I have some information, generic ones, but there were 19 continuous attempts on behalf of Mr. Rustom Ghazaleh to try to -- he was 20 playing the role that was played by any foreign regime and foreign forces 21 in the country in order to make sure that he would still have a role. 22 This is why he was always trying to keep the parties apart and at the 23 same time he was playing the role of the mediator. 24 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: Mr. Korkmaz, I'd just ask for a 25 clarification. Can you just clarify the time-period for the transcript Thursday, 26 March 2015 STL-11-01 Interpretation serves to facilitate communication. Only the original speech is authentic. 20150326_STL-11-01_T_T136_OFF_PUB_EN 5/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Witness: Fouad Siniora –PRH108 (Resumed) (Open Session) Page 5 Cross-examination by Mr. Korkmaz (Continued) 1 in which you are asking the questions and the witness is answering? Can 2 you give us a range of dates for the period you're referring to? 3 MR. KORKMAZ: [Interpretation] The period to which I'm referring 4 is the period at which the extension of Mr. Lahoud's tenure was at play, 5 so 2004. 6 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: Okay. Do you mean the entirety of 2004 up 7 till when the Parliament voted on the extension? 8 MR. KORKMAZ: [Interpretation] Well, I would say that there was a 9 background, a context, the questions which I am putting are in relation 10 to the relations between Mr. Hariri and the Syrian regime. In general, 11 my question refers to that general context, but I'm also looking 12 particularly at the period of 2004/2005, the period of extension of the 13 mandate and then the extension of President Lahoud's tenure. 14 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: Just so that we can be clear, Mr. Siniora, 15 were you understanding Mr. Korkmaz's questions to be directed to you in 16 the period in 2004 up until Mr. Lahoud's extension was voted on by 17 Parliament and then perhaps afterwards? 18 THE WITNESS: [Interpretation] Yes, yes. 19 MR. KORKMAZ: [Interpretation] Thank you. 20 Q. Now, specifically on the matter of information which you had then 21 or may have had, I'd like to know whether you were aware of the position 22 of the Hezbollah leaders on this matter in autumn 2004? For example, did 23 you know - and this is simply to assist you in providing a precise 24 answer - were you aware that Hezbollah, allies of Syria and 25 President Lahoud, was in support of Mr. Hariri's position? Thursday, 26 March 2015 STL-11-01 Interpretation serves to facilitate communication.
Recommended publications
  • Increasing Enterprise Growth and Jobs in Lebanon
    INCREASING ENTERPRISE GROWTH AND JOBS IN LEBANON OPTIONS TO INCREASE SME GROWTH AND JOBS ASIA & MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC GROWTH BEST PRACTICES PROGRAM Students at a Lebanese vocational school learn how to create garment patterns through a specialized training program in Beirut. 1 MAY 2015 Students at a Lebanese vocational school learn how to create garment patterns through a Thisspecialized publication training was producedprogram in for Beiru reviewt. by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Douglas Muir, Janet Gohlke-Rouhayem, and Craig Saltzer of Chemonics International, Hayley Alexander of Banyan Global, and Henri Stetter of the Pragma Corporation for the Asia & Middle East Economic Growth Best Practices Program contract no. AID-OAA-M-12-00008. INCREASING ENTERPRISE GROWTH AND JOBS IN LEBANON OPTIONS TO INCREASE SME GROWTH AND JOBS ASIA & MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC GROWTH BEST PRACTICES PROGRAM Contract No. AID-OAA-M-12-00008 Contracting Officer Representative, William Baldridge [email protected] (202) 712-4089 The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................ 1 SECTION I: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 6 A. Purpose of Assessment..............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Public Transcript of the Hearing Held On
    20150325_STL-11-01_T_T135_OFF_PUB_EN 1/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Procedural Matters (Open Session) Page 1 1 Special Tribunal for Lebanon 2 In the case of The Prosecutor v. Ayyash, Badreddine, Merhi, 3 Oneissi, and Sabra 4 STL-11-01 5 Presiding Judge David Re, Judge Janet Nosworthy, 6 Judge Micheline Braidy, Judge Walid Akoum, and 7 Judge Nicola Lettieri - [Trial Chamber] 8 Wednesday, 25 March 2015 - [Trial Hearing] 9 [Open Session] 10 [The witness takes the stand] 11 --- Upon commencing at 10.01 a.m. 12 THE REGISTRAR: The Special Tribunal for Lebanon is sitting in an 13 open session in the case of the Prosecutor versus Ayyash, Badreddine, 14 Merhi, Oneissi, and Sabra, case number STL-11-01. 15 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: Good morning. We will continue with the 16 evidence of Mr. Siniora today. 17 And good morning to you, Mr. Siniora. We trust you are 18 refreshed. 19 THE WITNESS: Good morning. 20 PRESIDING JUDGE RE: I just note the appearances. We have 21 Mr. Cameron appearing for the Prosecution. For the Legal Representative 22 for the Victims, we have Mr. Mattar and Ms. Abdelsater-Abusamra. For the 23 Defence we have Mr. Aoun for Mr. Ayyash; Mr. Korkmaz for Mr. Badreddine; 24 Mr. Hassan for Mr. Oneissi; Mr. Young for Mr. Sabra; and Mr. Khalil, who 25 is halfway through his cross-examination we hear, for Mr. Merhi. And Wednesday, 25 March 2015 STL-11-01 Interpretation serves to facilitate communication. Only the original speech is authentic. 20150325_STL-11-01_T_T135_OFF_PUB_EN 2/104 PUBLIC Official Transcript Witness: Fouad Siniora –PRH108 (Resumed) (Open Session) Page 2 Cross-examination by Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm
    LEBANON: MANAGING THE GATHERING STORM Middle East Report N°48 – 5 December 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. A SYSTEM BETWEEN OLD AND NEW.................................................................. 1 A. SETTING THE STAGE: THE ELECTORAL CONTEST..................................................................1 B. THE MEHLIS EFFECT.............................................................................................................5 II. SECTARIANISM AND INTERNATIONALISATION ............................................. 8 A. FROM SYRIAN TUTELAGE TO WESTERN UMBRELLA?............................................................8 B. SHIFTING ALLIANCES..........................................................................................................12 III. THE HIZBOLLAH QUESTION ................................................................................ 16 A. “A NEW PHASE OF CONFRONTATION” ................................................................................17 B. HIZBOLLAH AS THE SHIITE GUARDIAN?..............................................................................19 C. THE PARTY OF GOD TURNS PARTY OF GOVERNMENT.........................................................20 IV. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 22 A. A BROAD INTERNATIONAL COALITION FOR A NARROW AGENDA .......................................22 B. A LEBANESE COURT ON FOREIGN
    [Show full text]
  • Middle East: Lebanon [307]
    20. Middle East: Lebanon [307] Commitment “We will support the economic and humanitarian needs of the Lebanese people, including the convening at the right time of a donors conference.” 1418 Statement by Group of Eight Leaders at the St. Petersburg Summit1419 Background Three days prior to the commencement of the 2006 G8 Summit at St. Petersburg, Hezbollah guerillas kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed three others in a cross-border raid. In response to the attack, the Israeli government sanctioned a full-scale military operation against Lebanon, including air and artillery strikes, incursions by ground troops and a naval blockade. The Lebanese Higher Relief Council estimates that the Israeli offensive resulted in the nearly 1,200 casualties1420 and the Lebanese government estimated the cost of damage to its infrastructure and economy at USD3.6 billion.1421 On 16 July 2006, at the St. Petersburg Summit, the G8 leaders issued a joint statement in which they expressed their “deepening concern about the situation in the Middle East, in particular the rising civilian casualties on all sides and the damage to infrastructure.”1422 In that same statement the G8 leaders made the commitment to attend a donors conference and extend financial support to Lebanon for its reconstruction and humanitarian relief efforts. The International Donor Conference for Lebanon was held on 31 August 2006 in Stockholm, Sweden. Close to 60 governments and organizations were invited to attend.1423 Conference organizers aimed to raise approximately USD500 million, but in total more than USD940 million in new funds were pledged at the conference.1424 At the time of the conference this brought the total pledges raised to help with the rebuilding of Lebanon to USD1.2 billion.1425 On 27 January 2007 a second donors conference was held in Paris.
    [Show full text]
  • The Promise and Failure of the Zionist-Maronite Relationship, 1920-1948
    The Promise and Failure of the Zionist-Maronite Relationship, 1920-1948 Master’s Thesis Presented to The Faculty of Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Brandeis University Department of Near Eastern and Judaic Studies Ilan Troen, Graduate Advisor In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Master’s Degree by Scott Abramson February 2012 Acknowledgements I cannot omit the expression of my deepest gratitude to my defense committee, the formidable triumvirate of Professors Troen, Makiya, and Salameh. To register my admiration for these scholars would be to court extravagance (and deplete a printer cartridge), so I shall have to limit myself to this brief tribute of heartfelt thanks. ii ABSTRACT The Promise and Failure of the Zionist-Maronite Relationship, 1920-1948 A thesis presented to the Department of Near Eastern and Judaic Studies Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Brandeis University Waltham, Massachusetts By Scott Abramson Much of the historiography on the intercourse between Palestinian Jews and Lebanese Maronites concerns only the two peoples’ relations in the seventies and eighties. This thesis, in contrast, attempts a departure from this scholarship, joining the handful of other works that chart the history of the Zionist-Maronite relationship in its earliest incarnation. From its inception to its abeyance beginning in 1948, this almost thirty-year relationship was marked by a search of a formal alliance. This thesis, by presenting a panoptical survey of early Zionist-Maronite relations, explores the many dimensions of this pursuit. It details the Zionists and Maronites’ numerous commonalities that made an alliance desirable and apparently possible; it profiles the specific elements among the Zionists and Maronites who sought an entente; it examines each of the measures the two peoples took to this end; and it analyzes why this protracted pursuit ultimately failed.
    [Show full text]
  • Download Report
    The Party of God and Its Greatest Satan The 36-Year Confrontation Between Hezbollah and the United States September 2020 Table of Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................................3 Part I. The United States’ Place in Hezbollah’s Ideology ..........................................................5 Section A. Khomeini and Fadlallah: The Ideological Sources of Hezbollah’s Anti-Americanism . 5 Section B. Hezbollah in its Own Words ............................................................................................ 6 Part II. Hezbollah’s Anti-Americanism in Action in Lebanon and Abroad ...............................8 Section A. Ideology in Action–Generally: Pragmatism and Gradualism ........................................ 8 Section B. Phase I: Violent Confrontation From the Shadows (1982–1990).................................... 8 1. Attacking America in Lebanon .................................................................................................................. 9 2. Attacking the United States Globally ....................................................................................................... 11 Section C. Phase II: Hezbollah Adapts Its Attacks against the U.S. to the Taif Regime and Pax Syriana (1990–2001) ........................................................................................................................ 12 Section D. Phase III: Sinking the U.S. in the Iraqi Quagmire and Wrestling Over Lebanon
    [Show full text]
  • Letter Dated 20 October 2005 from the Secretary-General Addressed to the President of the Security Council
    Letter dated 20 October 2005 from the Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council I have the honour to transmit herewith the report of the United Nations International Independent Investigation Commission prepared pursuant to resolution 1595 (2005), by which the Commission was established to assist the Lebanese authorities in their investigation of the bombing on 14 February 2005 that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 others. The report details progress made in the investigation of the crime and sets out the conclusions reached by the Commission at this stage of the investigation. It is important to note that the criminal investigation is yet to be completed. To that end, the report points out in some detail the steps necessary to advance further the investigation as it is taken up by the Lebanese authorities, including the need for greater cooperation from all States, in particular the Syrian Arab Republic. I wish to thank Detlev Mehlis, Head of the Commission, and the members of his team for their excellent work under difficult circumstances. They have carried out their task in an impartial, independent and professional manner. The attached report, by necessity, is only the essence of their meticulous efforts. The Commission has transferred to the Lebanese authorities the full product of its work. This consists of more than 16,000 pages of documents, including the transcripts of interviews of 450 witnesses and suspects. I would also thank the Government of the Lebanese Republic for its support for, and cooperation with, the Commission. It is my intention to extend the mandate of the Commission until 15 December 2005 in accordance with paragraph 8 of resolution 1595 (2005).
    [Show full text]
  • Lebanon: the Chimera of a Shi'a "Third Way"
    LEBANON: THE CHIMERA OF A SHI’A ‘THIRD WAY’ Rodger Shanahan* As the wave of popular protests and armed uprisings in the Arab world reshapes regional politics, Iran’s influence in the Levant is coming under enormous pressure as the Assad regime looks increasingly unable to better the armed opposition. But those who see a post-Ba‘athist Damascus as the prelude to the isolation, if not demise of Hizbullah, will be disappointed. Both Lebanese domestic politics and Hizbullah’s role within it are complex, and thoughts of a sudden shifting of support away from the Shi‘a Muslim party by its base because of greater regional demands for political plurality misreads the domestic context within which the Party of God operates. Of course, a post-Assad world is of concern to Hizbullah for several reasons. Syria has provided key logistic resupply routes and the diplomatic, and intelligence and security resources that only a friendly neighboring state can bring to bear. That having been said, the porous Lebanon/Syria border and Hizbullah influence over Rafiq Hariri airport’s security apparatus mean that a great deal of the logistic support could continue although the heavier weaponry would be more difficult to move. Assad’s fall could also reduce Hizbullah’s decisive martial edge over its political rivals. External training and logistic support from a Sunni-aligned Syrian government to the March 14 bloc or independent Sunni groups, or even the tacit acceptance of its conduct on Syrian soil could markedly improve the opposition’s militia capability. A situation which has something resembling military parity between political groupings could destabilize the country, but a Hizbullah less sure of the cost to itself of armed action may also result in a party more likely to countenance negotiated settlements than is currently the case.
    [Show full text]
  • Doha Agreement
    United Nations S/2008/392 Security Council Distr.: General 10 June 2008 Original: English Letter dated 22 May 2008 from the Permanent Observer of the League of Arab States to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council Pursuant to Article 54 of the Charter of the United Nations, I have the honour to transmit herewith copies of the following: (a) the Doha Agreement regarding the outcome of the Lebanese national reconciliation conference; and (b) the outcome and resolutions issued by the Council of the League of Arab States at its extraordinary session held at the ministerial level on 11 May 2008 (see annex). I should be grateful if you would arrange for the present letter and its annex to be circulated as a document of the Security Council. (Signed) Yahya Mahmassani Ambassador 08-40255 (E) 140708 170708 *0840255* S/2008/392 Annex to the letter dated 22 May 2008 from the Permanent Observer of the League of Arab States to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council [Original: Arabic] Doha Agreement on the outcome of the meeting of the Lebanese National Dialogue Under the generous sponsorship of His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, Emir of the State of Qatar; In continuation of the efforts of the Arab Ministerial Committee on the Lebanese crisis under the leadership of His Excellency Shaikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr Al-Thani, Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of the State of Qatar and of Mr. Amre Moussa, Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, and Their Excellencies
    [Show full text]
  • LEVANTINE RESET: Toward a More Viable U.S. Strategy for Lebanon
    ANALYSIS PAPER Number 21, July 2010 LEVANTINE RESET: Toward a More Viable U.S. Strategy for Lebanon Bilal Y. Saab ANALYSIS PAPER Number 21, July 2010 LEVANTINE RESET: Toward a More Viable U.S. Strategy for Lebanon Bilal Y. Saab TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary . iii Acknowledgements . vi The Author . vii Introduction . 1 The Importance of Lebanon to the United States . 4 The Problems of Lebanon . 14 A New U .S . Strategy for Lebanon . 24 LEVANTINE RESET: TOWarD A MOre ViaBle U .S . StrateGY FOR LEBanON ii The Saban Center at Brookings EXECUTIVE SUMMARY he United States should adopt a new ap- exploit Lebanon to improve their strategic positions proach toward Lebanon if it wishes to secure in the region at the expense of the United States its interests in that country and in the broader and its allies . Two, an internally secure and strong TMiddle East . The 1983 attack against the U .S . Ma- Lebanon that is capable of fixing or defusing its own rines in Lebanon was the beginning of the end of problems boosts U S. security interests in the Middle the United States’ involvement in Lebanon . Since East and those of its ally, Israel . Three, the United then, with the exception of a brief period during States has a strategic interest in supporting demo- the George W . Bush administration, there has been cratic countries and in strengthening democratic in- a strong sentiment in Washington that the price of stitutions around the world . The fact that Lebanon is U .S . engagement is too high, and that problems in a democracy (even if imperfect) with liberal impulses Lebanon are not threatening to American strate- that plays an important cultural-intellectual role in gic interests in the Middle East .
    [Show full text]
  • A Strong Army for a Stable Lebanon
    The Middle East Institute Policy Brief No. 19 September 2008 A Strong Army for a Stable Lebanon By Joseph A. Kéchichian Executive Summary Despite serious shortcomings — notably in terms of limited financial backing, obsolete equipment, and lack of full political support — the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are a viable and even a critical nation-building institution in Lebanon, en- joying strong popular backing. Nevertheless, the LAF faces a number of challenges, including how to eradicate past dilemmas, build on its current pillars, and transform itself into a permanent defense establishment. Although the LAF lost most of its influence during the 1975-1990 civil war, it nonetheless maintained its cohesion and reemerged as an indispensable entity. Senior Lebanese officials, from President Michel Suleiman to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to the Secretary-General of Hizbullah Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, all recognize the value of a strong army to defend the country, prevent foreign attacks, and protect the population from internal schisms. Likewise, Arab and Western supporters of Lebanon acknowledge that the LAF is the only indigenous institution capable of accomplishing essential nation- building tasks in a country that sorely needs political stability. Towards that end, several countries pledged to assist the LAF after the civil war, although much of that assistance was rudimentary at best. ThisPolicy Brief recommends that Lebanon adopt a new national defense policy and appropriate at least 5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) for defense purposes — up from the less than 3% of GDP spent in 2007. It further calls on Beirut’s allies, especially the United States and major Western European countries, to supply the LAF with advanced weapons.
    [Show full text]
  • Lebanon: the Chimera of a Shi’A ‘Third Way’
    LEBANON: THE CHIMERA OF A SHI’A ‘THIRD WAY’ Rodger Shanahan* As the wave of popular protests and armed uprisings in the Arab world reshapes regional politics, Iran’s influence in the Levant is coming under enormous pressure as the Assad regime looks increasingly unable to better the armed opposition. But those who see a post-Ba‘athist Damascus as the prelude to the isolation, if not demise of Hizbullah, will be disappointed. Both Lebanese domestic politics and Hizbullah’s role within it are complex, and thoughts of a sudden shifting of support away from the Shi‘a Muslim party by its base because of greater regional demands for political plurality misreads the domestic context within which the Party of God operates. Of course, a post-Assad world is of concern to Hizbullah for several reasons. Syria has provided key logistic resupply routes and the diplomatic, and intelligence and security resources that only a friendly neighboring state can bring to bear. That having been said, the porous Lebanon/Syria border and Hizbullah influence over Rafiq Hariri airport’s security apparatus mean that a great deal of the logistic support could continue although the heavier weaponry would be more difficult to move. Assad’s fall could also reduce Hizbullah’s decisive martial edge over its political rivals. External training and logistic support from a Sunni-aligned Syrian government to the March 14 bloc or independent Sunni groups, or even the tacit acceptance of its conduct on Syrian soil could markedly improve the opposition’s militia capability. A situation which has something resembling military parity between political groupings could destabilize the country, but a Hizbullah less sure of the cost to itself of armed action may also result in a party more likely to countenance negotiated settlements than is currently the case.
    [Show full text]