2.9 News Feat Climate MH

Crunch time for Kyoto Only Russia can rescue the global agreement on climate change. So why aren’t Russian climate scientists speaking up? Quirin Schiermeier and Bryon MacWilliams report from Moscow.

each for the seatbelt in a Moscow up to state that man-made global warming The Kyoto agreement, drafted in 1997, taxicab, and you are likely to be repri- was a myth. requires industrialized countries to cut their Rmanded by the driver. “We’re in Rus- King remains diplomatic.“I am very dis- greenhouse-gas emissions to 5% below 1990 sia,” he might say — his way of letting you appointed that this event wasn’t as successful levels by 2012.It has been ratified or accepted know he feels insulted by your low regard as it should have been,” he told Nature. by 124 countries, which collectively account

for his driving skills. Michael Grubb, a climate-change expert at for 44% of the industrialized world’s emis- A. NATRUSKIN/REUTERS Although the cabbie’s attitude may Imperial College London and a member of sions.But 55% is needed for the treaty to take surprise first-time visitors, it’s old hat to the UK delegation, is more blunt. “We effect, and, after the United States withdrew David King, chief scientific adviser to the walked into a trap,”he says. its support in 2001, Russia, with its 17.5% British government. King is well aware that That a small group of treaty-objectors share of emissions, became the treaty’s last attitudes in this former superpower are could co-opt a high-level scientific meeting remaining hope. heavily influenced by its dented pride and illustrates Russia’s unusual situation. Unlike need for respect. Europe and the United States, where most Doing a deal Yet even he was taken aback at a recent scientists strongly support efforts to limit President Vladimir Putin’s statements on the Moscow summit with Russian climate greenhouse-gas emissions, Russia is under matter have been ambiguous. In May he told researchers. King and a delegation of British virtually no pressure from its scientific com- European Union leaders that he might be experts had come to the 7 July workshop at munity to take steps to avert climate change. willing to sign in exchange for their support the invitation of the Russian Academy of While the majority remains silent, a small of Russia’s application for membership of the Sciences. But it soon became clear that the group within the Russian Academy of Sci- World Trade Organization. But neither Putin agenda had been hijacked by some of Russia’s ences speaks with nationalistic fervour about nor his ministers have shown any real enthu- most vocal critics of the Kyoto Protocol on the need to avoid restrictions on the Russian siasm for the treaty beyond its use as a negoti- climate change, the international agreement economy. In post-soviet Russia, where eco- ating tool, and it now seems that a handful of to reduce global warming, which Russia has nomic hardship and growing nationalism anti-treaty Russian scientists and economists yet to ratify. The UK delegates reacted with are everyday realities,it is difficult for anyone are busy in the background setting the stage dismay as several unscheduled speakers got to speak out against them. for the Kremlin ultimately to reject it.

been drawn into the fray. Izrael, a prominent tunately, it is a war. War against the whole academy member, was accused of stage- world and,in this case,against Russia,”he said managing last year’s World Climate Change at a press conference after the meeting. Conference in Moscow to promote his agenda The British Office of Science and Tech- (see Nature 423, 792; 2003). Shortly after the nology is playing down the incident, calling conference, Putin asked the academy to it a “storm in a teacup”. But on the quiet, reassess the risk of man-made climate change scientists inside and outside Russia worry and the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol. that it is a sign that the Russian Academy of Observers considered the move to be Sciences is lending its considerable weight politically motivated, as all the key scientific to Kyoto-hostile forces in the country. H. BRADNER/PANOS; Q. SCHIERMEIER issues had already been addressed in great detail by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cold comfort Climate Change (IPCC), of which Izrael is a This is in marked contrast to the academy’s vice-president.The last IPCC report in 2001, behaviour in communist times, when con- Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, cerned members successfully opposed sev- quoted extensive evidence that anthropo- eral government proposals they considered genic greenhouse warming is real and could misguided, including a plan to re-route large dangerously alter the climate. northward-flowing Siberian rivers with a But Izrael has challenged this finding. In series of controlled nuclear explosions. But May, he put out a two-page memorandum in the current climate debate, few within the based on a series of meetings with selected academy are willing to voice their objections academy members that claimed “a high level to Izrael’s stance on the treaty. of uncertainty as to whether the rise in temp- There is also no public pressure on the erature [over the past 100 years] was in fact government. Climate change is of little con- due to human activity”. The Kyoto Protocol cern in a country in the middle of a painful has “no scientific basis”,the report concludes. social and economic transition.“Most every But Illarionov’s participation in the Russian family simply has much more seminars,and concerns that Izrael’s selection immediate problems with adjusting to the of experts was biased, have led observers to new life,”says Mokhov. Meltdown? Yuri Izrael (far left, with President doubt the independence of these conclu- And warming doesn’t sound such a bad Putin) and other powerful voices in the Russian sions.“I agree there are many uncertainties,” thing to residents of the coldest country in the Academy of Sciences (above) oppose Russian says Igor Mokhov, a climate modeller at the world. Indeed, there is a widespread notion, ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics held even by some scientists, that a slightly in Moscow.“But no serious analysis can deny warmer climate would actually help the coun- Two powerful advisers to Putin are spear- the existence of a profound anthropogenic try to save energy and produce better harvests. heading this opposition.One is Yuri Izrael,the influence on global warming.” An upside to climate change is not out of 74-year-old director of the Moscow-based Izrael insists that the academy’s mission is the question, although the reality is likely Institute of Global Climate and Ecology. His purely scientific and that the treaty itself is to be more complicated, says Vladimir age and political leanings have led some of his politically motivated. “The Kyoto Protocol Kotlyakov,director of the Russian Academy of opponents to call him a “fossil communist came about because there is big money being Science’s Institute of Geography in Moscow. fighting for fossil fuel”. The other is Andrei spent on it,”he told Nature.“But Melting permafrost could dam- Illarionov, 40, Putin’s top economic adviser everyone has forgotten about “Unfortunately, it is a age roads and pipelines, for and a staunch opponent of any government the climate, and is focusing on war. War against the instance. Several institutes of interference in the economy. how best to trade emission whole world and, in the academy plan to join forces rights and earn money. They’re this case, against to examine the likely social, eco- Economic argument just deluding themselves.” Russia.” nomic and physical conse- While Izrael says he opposes the Kyoto Pro- The July workshop was to — Andrei Illarionov quences of a northward shift of tocol mainly on scientific grounds, Illarionov have been an informal exchange climate zones. The results could argues that it threatens Russia’s wealth and of ideas about climate-change research. But help Russian scientists find their voice on the development. He says that Russia’s rapidly unknown to the attendees, Izrael, one of the climate issue,says Kotlyakov. growing economy will soon produce more meeting’s organizers, had invited a group of Even this summer’s workshop may have emissions than the treaty allows, forcing it to known climate-change sceptics, including helped by raising awareness among Russian buy emission rights on the international Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist at the experts about the urgency of the situation, market. And as the world’s largest green- Massachusetts Institute of Technology in suggests Georgy Golitsyn, director of the house polluter, the United States, has backed Cambridge, who is widely regarded as the Obukhov Institute. “Many of us were quite out despite its much stronger economy, it is ‘guru’ of global-warming doubters. Izrael impressed at the level of preparation Britain even more unreasonable to expect Russia to added them to the list of speakers only at the is already taking with regards to a changing sign the Kyoto treaty, Illarionov argues. last minute. climate,”he says. Observers worry that Putin will find this This led to complaints by King and other As Russia contemplates what it will do, argument persuasive. Illarionov’s influence British delegates.“The workshop was an excel- patience should be the name of the game, is thought to be extensive,and even his critics lent opportunity to discuss the important says Grubb. “Disputes within the Russian admit that he is an eloquent and sharp- issue of climate change,”King says.“But there Academy of Sciences are not something that witted lobbyist with a solid understanding of were some very unfortunate last-minute foreign comment will help resolve,” he says. science. “Not many countries have such an changes made by the organizers.” “Every attempt to play hardball with the intelligent expert dealing with climate issues In response, Illarionov accused Britain of Russians will backfire.” ■ at this high level,”says Grubb. attempting to force governments against Quirin Schiermeier is Nature’s German correspondent; Now the Russian Academy of Sciences has their will to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.“Unfor- Bryon MacWilliams is a freelance writer in Moscow.