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The Central and Eastern Europe Monthly Briefs concisely summarise the latest events and issues on a regional and international level. A group of young scholars and researchers combine their desk- research skills with data analysis in order to provide a bigger picture on different regions and their potential developments. Coordinator: Francesco Trupia, PhD

Contributors for Eastern Europe: Kateryna Halushka, Luca Dilda, Gilles de Valk, Maximilian Feske, Nicoleta Mirza, Daniel Drury, Alice Griffon

2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS

On October 27, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine made a ruling legitimizing UKRAINE. The Controversial “inaccurate asset declaration” which benefits Ruling of the Constitutional Court the interests of the judges of that same court according to the National Agency of the Spikes an International Scandal Corruption Prevention. The agency had by Kate Halushka earlier claimed that two judges that participated in this decision-making were found to fill false information in their At the end of October 2020, Ukraine has declarations. This ruling repeals the Article entered a judicial crisis triggered by some 366-1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine controversial and unconstitutional decisions regarding the issue of criminal liability of the taken by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine government officials. Agency drew also against the widespread phenomenon of attention to the fact that those judges had a corruption. conflict of interest and, therefore, with no Ukraine has a long-lasting history of the right to partake such a decision. Ukrainian process: before the Revolution of Dignity this Parliament envoy to the Court, Olha Sovhiria function was attributed to the National Anti- has also stressed that the Constitutional Corruption Committee, however, its Court’s ruling was taken with severe effectiveness was consistently low. In 2014 procedural violations. National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine On the next day, the National Agency on (NABU) was formed with the support of the Corruption Prevention closed access to the European Union and the International State E-declarations Register abiding by the Monetary Fund and was called for fighting ruling. However, soon after, they were against large-scale corruption cases in ordered by the government to restore the Ukraine. access due to the international backlash. If all In the same year, Ukraine signed an cases of inaccurate declarations would be Association Agreement with the European closed, convicted officials would get the Union that outlined a number of areas where chance to escape responsibility. Ukraine committed to implementing reforms President Zelensky proposed termination of including banking, decentralization, energy, the powers of the Constitutional Court judges judiciary, etc. This agreement serves as the and suggests to start a new process of main tool to increase political and economic appointment immediately. His bill No. 4288 cooperation with Ukraine and develops was proposed to the Parliament where he respect for common values. Since then, clearly stated that the ruling of the Ukraine has improved in many areas Constitutional Court is “null and void” and that judges had a conflict of interest. On the according to the latest report released by the rd Foreign Affairs Committee MEPs on the 10th 3 of November, the European Union of November. However, it has also been reminded Ukraine of the need to restore the mentioned that further work on the judiciary proper work of the anti-corruption bodies by is necessary since this branch of power stays the 16th of December. the least trusted till now. The pressing need Representatives of the Venice Commission for visible results of combating corruption is and GRECO signed a letter urging the also needed in order to maintain support for Parliament and President Zelensky to restore reforms from the population. trust in the judicial system and warned about

1 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS the harsh consequences of passing a bill for possibility of an international scandal and termination of Constitutional Court judges. well as shading light on the judicial system in Matti Maasikas who is the Ambassador of the Ukraine European Union Ukraine commented on the

issue stating that a visa-free regime and financial assistance of the EU and the BELARUS. Lukashenko Militarises International Monetary Fund is conditional his Regime while Tikhanovskaya on the successful implementation of the reforms including proper functioning of the Seeks Support in Europe anti-corruption institutions. Ukraine has by Gilles de Valk already received US$5 bln loans from the IMF and awaits to receive EUR 1.2 bln from the EU. On the 29th of October, the European Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ self- Union published an official statement proclaimed president, has responded to the questioning the international commitment of Ukraine following the ruling of the continuing protests in Belarus with more Constitutional Court. This ruling has broad violence, as he is surrounding himself with negative consequences on the anti-corruption people from the security services and the strategy of Ukraine established following the military. Revolution of Dignity in 2014. This strategy Meanwhile, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the is a key factor in European cooperation with opposition leader in exile, has been visiting Ukraine through the Association Agreement several European countries, seeking their and the Macro-Financial Assistance program. European Union appreciates the rapid support in achieving a democratic transition reaction of the President and the Government in Belarus. However, the European Union’s and wishes that issue will be quickly resolved sanctions against Belarusian officials seem to by restoring access to the e-declarations. This have little impact on Lukashenko’s regime’s crisis highlighted a need for further actions. There is no indication Lukashenko implementation of judicial reform. will leave voluntarily or will start a credible Representatives of the Council of Europe also expressed concern in the ruling and urged the dialogue with the opposition. Instead, the Ukrainian government “to take all necessary most likely way out of this situation seems to actions to restore the effective functioning of be violent escalation, without any certainty the e-declaration system”, while also about the outcome. maintaining long-term independence of the Demonstrations have not ceased, surprising judiciary. Ukrainian representative also met observers, who witnessed 25.000 people with the ambassadors of the G7 countries as getting arrested over the first three months of well as U.S. and Japan envoys and discussed possible resolution of the issue according to the protests. Furthermore, 1.500 complaints the press release on 30th of October. about torture and beatings have been The controversial ruling of the Constitutional registered at the Belarussian Investigative Court of Ukraine undermines efforts of the Committee, although the Committee is Ukrainian government at the implementation unlikely to follow up on them. In response to of the reforms and European integration the authorities’ brutalities, Tikhanovskaya outlined in the Association Agreement. Fast announced the creation of a ‘People’s resolution of the issue is needed due to the Tribunal’, intending to prosecute the regime

2 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS for those crimes. On top of that, she called for the West under Biden can lead Lukashenko ‘the most massive march’ on 20 December. to increase his brutal methods of repression Despite the continuing mass demonstrations, in order to end the protests. Lukashenko Lukashenko succeeded in maintaining power probably does not see another way out. The by appointing people from the security outcome could be an even more repressive services (siloviki) and the military to dictatorship or a breakdown of the current powerful positions. In this way, he gains their regime. loyalty but also makes them complicit in the regime’s crimes. As the siloviki risk prosecution in case of a victory for the protesters, possibilities for appeasing society The EU and the Visegrad group: peacefully are shrinking. In the meantime, Dispute stalls coronavirus recovery Lukashenko will try to find a balance plan between retaining the siloviki’s loyalty and by Daniel Drury keeping them in check, since one of ‘his own’ could topple him if he does not get the situation under control. The EU’s coronavirus response has hit an Foreign actors could play a role in limiting or obstacle in the past week with Hungary and increasing Lukashenko’s grip on the Poland blocking the proposed EU budget and demonstrations. Although the EU’s impact with it, the EU’s €750 billion coronavirus on this situation seems to remain limited, the recovery fund. Out of the 27 member states, prospect of Joe Biden becoming the US the two nations, both part of the Visegrad President in January might scare Lukashenko group, used their veto power to stall the more. Biden said he would impose new endorsement of the budget in the meeting of sanctions and guaranteed support for the the 27 ambassadors. The budget and the demonstrators. This might be one of the recovery fund required unanimous support reasons Lukashenko has responded more and could not be passed by a qualified brutally to demonstrations recently and why majority vote. Hungary and Poland have he is likely to continue to do so. At the same taken issue with the agreement made back in time, Russia’s support for Lukashenko will July that member states will only have access be come more costly, the longer domestic and to the money if they follow the ‘rule of law’, international pressure on him persist. as this is seen as an attempt to force the two The situation in Belarus is unlikely to de- countries to abide by the policy decisions of escalate on the short term. Lukashenko is the EU. Polish Justice Minister, Zbigniew unlikely to give up his position and is Ziobor, has claimed that the rule of law issue surrounding himself with siloviki, while may determine Poland’s sovereignty within demonstrations are continuing and the union. This disagreement comes against a Tikhanovskaya is seeking support abroad. On background of the EU’s long-standing top of that, pressure from Russia and the criticism of the perceived drop in democratic prospect of a more assertive response from standards in the two countries and

3 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS investigation into the running of many of government’s decision to veto the budget, their institutions such as the courts and the with 28% praising it and 33% without an media. opinion. This trend towards disapproval was With many other EU member states hugely reflected in the response of the opposition reliant on the availability of this budget to party in parliament who urged the boost their economies and stimulate a government to reach an agreement on the EU recovery from the effects of the pandemic, all budget. The Czech Republic and Slovakia, eyes will be on Hungary and Poland in the the Visegrad partners of Hungary and Poland, coming days in the hope that they can set have not seen fit to take the same stand aside their differences with the rest of the EU against the rule of law stipulation in the and endorse a budget that seems vital for the budget and voted with the other EU members short-term prosperity of the union as a whole. to approve it. Czech Finance Minister, Tomas German ambassador, Michael Clauss, said Petricek, has expressed hope that this dispute that the EU faced ‘a serious crisis’ if the will not delay the distribution of money to budget was not adopted quickly. However, individual member states. The Czech Slovenia are now reported to be supporting Republic has been the hardest hit of the the position of Hungary and Poland meaning Visegrad countries during the pandemic and that the EU budget now faces opposition the government is therefore keen for this from three of the 27 member states. Over the debate to be resolved and for the much- next week, the other 24 states will have to ask needed recovery fund to be released as soon themselves whether they should hold firm on as possible. The Czech Republic has seen a the ‘rule of law’ stipulation in the budget or decrease in coronavirus cases and whether they should pull back from tying in hospitalisations this week meaning that there their expected values and behaviours of are hopeful signs that cases may have reached individual governments as conditions for the another peak and that a decreasing death toll allocation of this budget. On the other hand, will follow in the coming days. Meanwhile in with Poland and Hungary particularly reliant Slovakia, deaths and hospitalisations are on funding from Brussels which makes up rising but a slight decrease in overall cases roughly 5% of their GDP, the EU may see and plans for another round of nationwide this as an opportunity to put pressure on the testing means that Prime Minister, Igor two governments to conform to the agreed Matovic, is optimistic that their current expectations and values of the union as they strategy will continue to see cases decrease see it. This is something that Hungarian meaning a decrease in deaths and Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has described hospitalisations should follow. as ‘blackmail’ and Polish Prime Minister, Therefore, the hope from Czech Republic and Mateusz Morawiecki, has compared to being Slovakia along with the other EU member ‘punished like children’. states will be that this budget dispute is The domestic reaction in Poland was resolved sooner rather than later, as the reflected in a recent poll which found that money from the coronavirus recovery fund is 39% of Poles were critical of the a potentially key factor in turning the tide

4 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS back towards a regression of coronavirus and Moldovan Population. Deliu is the candidate a return to economic recovery in Europe. of the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova 1 for the position of head of state. The fourth is Igor Dodon, the current

Moldovan President. Dodon is a pro-Russian MOLDOVA: Politics and Elections candidate who has been elected as President by Nicoleta Mirza in 2016. Yet, the Moldovan leader has been accused by the Moldovan population of corruption. A video appeared online where the Moldovan President is depicted in a The month of November 2020 has become 2 historic for the Moldovan people. The month corrupt money transfer. The leader is also known for his strong ties with the Moldovan has started with National Presidential 3 st church and strong beliefs and propaganda elections on the 1 of November, which 4 marked a new possible leadership in the small against homosexuality. Eastern European country. The fifth on the electoral list is Violeta The first round of the Presidential elections Ivanov, the candidate of the political party consisted of eight candidates. The first on the “Sor”. The Political Party is led by the list was the leader of the Political Party “Our oligarch Ilan Sor convicted in 2017 over the Party”. The politician is known for his free theft of 1 billion US dollars from the Moldovan Banking system. The politician concerts organized for the electorate in the 5 first years of his political activity and has currently fled the country but is still officially counted as a deputy in the disapproval of the current President of 6 Moldova Igor Dodon and the Moldovan Moldovan parliament. Oligarh Vlad Plahatniuc which has fled the The sixth on the list is Maia Sandu, the leader country when his criminal activities were of the Political party “Solidarity and Truth”. exposed. Maia Sandu, a Pro-European candidate, has The Second on the list is Andrei Nastase, the become popular amongst the Moldovan leader of the Political Party "Dignity and population after serving as the Minister of Truth Platform". The politician is mostly Education of the Republic of Moldova in known as one of the leaders that led the 2015 2012-2015. protest Movement. The seventh candidate is Octavian Ticu, the The next on the ballot list is Tudor Deliu who candidate of the political Party “National is somewhat unknown amongst the Unity”. The candidate’s main agenda is a union with Romania.7

1 (video) Candidatul PLDM la Președinție, Tudor 4 See Igor Dodon (2020, November 4). Tradițiile, Deliu: „Am votat pentru scoaterea din izolare a R. valorile familiale, credința sunt lucruri sfinte pentru Moldova, pentru un președinte care să reprezinte mine. Eu nu voi permite legalizarea căsătoriilor între poporul”. (2020, November 1). Unimedia. persoane de același sex și organizarea paradelor gay, 2 „Iar umblați cu culioacele?” Momentul în care iar Maia Sandu nu doar că declară deschis că va Dodon primește o pungă cu bani de la Plahotniuc și permite acest lucru, dar și a participat personal la Iaralov // VIDEO. (2020, May 18)).Jurnal TV. astfel de marșuri. 3 See Interdicții, dar nu pentru toți: Igor Dodon, la 5 Madalin Necsutu. (2019, July 26). Moldova Seeks biserică împreună cu familia sa // Arrest of Convicted Oligarch Ilan Shor. EXCLUSIVITATE. (2020, April 18). Jurnal TV. BalkanInshight. Also see Igor Dodon. (2018, June 18). Astăzi 6 See Parlamentul Republicii Moldova. Deputatii. Biserica Ortodoxă sărbătorește ziua Sfîntului Cuvios 7 See Valentina Ursu. (2020, October 21). Octavian Igor […]. Țîcu (PUN): „Sper să fiu președintele care semnează

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And the last candidate on the list is Dorin Renato Usatii is in third place.11 Which send Chirtoaca, the leader of the Liberal Party. He Maia Sandu and Igor Dodon to compete for has served as the capital’s mayor from 2007 the Presidential seat in the Second round. to 2018. The 2nd Round The 1st Round Renato Usatii,12 Octavian Ticu,13 Tudor The first round of the election on the 1st of Deliu,14 and Andrei Nastase15 have expressed November has not been entirely peaceful. their support for Maia Sandu and urged their Dorin Chirtoaca, the candidate of the electorate to vote for her. “Unirea” Electoral Bloc in the presidential In order to gain more votes for Igor Dodon, elections, submitted a notification to the the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Central Electoral Center requesting the Moldova16 organized on November 13, a cancellation of the results from the 42 polling march in support of the independent stations open for the citizens of the Left Bank. candidate Igor Dodon. Even though there is a According to him, fraud is taking place in the red code in public health in Chisinau, electoral process at the polling stations open hundreds of people gathered for the march.17 to the inhabitants of the Transnistrian region.8 Ultimately, the result of the second round of Due to the long lines at the polling stations the 2020 presidential elections on 15th of abroad the Political Party Truth and November shows Maia Sandu as the next and Solidarity requested the extension of the first female President of the Republic of activity schedule of the polling stations Moldova. According to the results the abroad.9 The request appears to be reasonable candidate Maia Sandu obtained 57.72% of due to the incredible activity in the election votes and Igor Dodon obtained 42.28%.18 of the diaspora. The lines to the poling station The new elected President Maia Sandu was had been as long as a kilometer, and some congratulated by such world leaders as people had waited as long as six hours in order to vote.10 After processing all the votes, Maia Sandu is the candidate with the most accumulated votes. Igor Dodon is in second place, and actul unirii” cu România. Radio Europa Libera 13 See video) Octavian Țîcu a anunțat că PUN o va Moldova. susține în turul II al alegerilor prezidențiale pe Maia 8 (doc) Dorin Chirtoacă cere anularea rezultatelor de Sandu. (2020, November 6). Diez. la cele 42 de secții de votare deschise pentru cetățenii 14 See Primele declarații ale lui Tudor Deliu: „PLDM moldoveni din Stânga Nistrului. (2020, November 1). anunță că în turul II de scrutin va susține candidata Diez. proeuropeană Maia Sandu”. (2020, November 2). 9 See (video, doc) PAS cere prelungirea orarului de Diez. activitate a secțiilor de votare din străinătate, astfel 15 See (video) Andrei Năstase a anunțat că o va încât toți să-și poată exercita dreptul de vot. (2020, susține în turul II al alegerilor prezidențiale pe Maia November 1). Diez. Sandu. (2020, November 2). Diez. 10 See (foto, video) Cozi de un kilometru. Un tânăr 16 Igor Dodon is the former leader of the Party of din diasporă a stat aproape șase ore la rând pentru a Socialists of the Republic of Moldova. putea vota. (2020, November 1). Diez. 17 See (foto, video) UPDATE: Marșul în susținerea 11 See (grafic) Maia Sandu, în fruntea clasamentului. lui Igor Dodon s-a încheiat. (2020, November 13). Rezultatele alegerilor după prelucrarea tuturor Diez. proceselor-verbale. (2020, November 2). Diez. 18 See Alegeri Presidentiale in Republica Moldova. 12 See Maia Sandu spune că a avut prima discuție cu Comisia Electorală Centrală A Republicii Moldova. Usatîi și a îndemnat alegătorii care l-au votat să o sprijine. (2020, November 3). Diez.

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Volodîmîr Zelenski,19 Klaus Iohannis,20 Lachin and their surroundings. Russia will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 21 and Vladimir also deploy 1960 peacekeepers in the region Putin.22 Consequetly, Maia Sandu became in order to supervise and implement the one of the only 11 female Presidents in the ceasefire agreement on the ground. Some world23 and one of the most popular 24 were already sent to Stepanakert/Kankendhi politicians in the Moldovan history. on November 12th.

Armenians immediately reacted to the truce by gathering and protesting in the streets of ARMENIA. The Political Defeat of Yerevan, despite the restrictions imposed by Pashinyan? the martial law. On November 12th, the authorities arrested ten prominent political by Alice Griffon figures of the opposition for organizing

illegal and violent mass disorders. On November 14th, the leader of the opposition On November 10th, the Armenian Prime party Homeland, Artur Vanetsyan, was Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani arrested for plotting to overthrow the President Ilham Aliyev signed a peace government and kill the Prime Minister. agreement under the mediation of the Russian Vanestian is the former head of the National President Vladimir Putin, for ending the Security Service. He resigned in September violent conflict that erupted at the end of 2019 and since then publicly criticize the September in Nagorno-Karabakh. Both Prime Minister. counterparts reached such agreement shortly During the protests against the peace after the takeover of the city of Shusha agreement and the Prime Minister, seventeen (Shushi in Armenian language) which was opposition parties have demanded his determinant for the Azerbaijani side. The resignation. This demand was asserted by the deal concedes to Azerbaijan a majority of Armenian President Armen Sargsyan. territory inside the Nagorno-Karabakh Indeed, during a public allocution made on proper, in addition to those southern districts the 16th of November, the President called occupied during the conflict. Therefore, at the for Pashinyan's resignation and snap end of November and in December, Armenia parliamentary elections. On the same day, should surrender the cities of Aghdam and Pashinyan published comments on social

19 Vladimir Zelinski.(2020, November 16). @sandumaiamdo n her victory at the presidential Congratulations to @sandumaiamd on winning the election in #Moldova. I am deeply impressed with presidential elections in Moldova. I look forward to her bravery & dedication. I believe under her further strengthening relations between #Ukraine leadership Moldovan people will prosper, & relations Flag of Ukraine and #Moldova Flag of Moldova for between our nations will be developing. the European future of our nations. 22 Vladimir Putin. (2020, November 16). 20 Klaus Iohannis, (2020, November 16). O felicit pe Поздравление Майе Санду с победой на выборах @sandumaiamd pentru câștigarea alegerilor Президента Молдавии. President Rosii. prezidențiale din #RepublicaMoldova! Cetățenii Flag 23 Liubomir Guțu. (2020, November 16). Lista celor of Moldova au ales continuarea drumului european și 11 șefe de stat din întreaga lume. Maia Sandu este democratic, un drum al progresului! RO va rămâne cea mai proaspătă președintă aleasă. Diez. alături de Flag of Moldova în eforturile reale de 24 Alexandru Lebedev. (2020, November 16). În top 3 modernizare, democratizare și apropiere de UE. cei mai populari politicieni din istoria Moldovei. 21 Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. (2020, November 16). Maia Sandu obține mai multe voturi decât Petru Expressing my sincerest congratulations to Lucinschi în 1996. Diez.

7 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS media about the protests that were perceived as inciting violence. This development caused Pashinyan the loss of allies. Indeed, GEORGIA’s (Post-)Election Days after the resignation of the Foreign Minister, members of the parliament and the party by Luca Dilda Civil Contract stepped down. According to the Prime Minister, this internal st crisis is the revenge plot of the former regime, On the 31 of October, Georgia held the following the Velvet revolution. Pahinyan parliamentary election with a new electoral system, shifting from a majoritarian to a dismissed the calls for his resignation and proportional one. As the polls predicted25, the presented in the National Assembly on the ruling Georgian Dream party obtained the 18th of November his road map for the six around 48% of the preferences, winning the months to come. He did not mention his elections for the third time in a row.26 potential resignation or the hold of elections. At the same time, the opposition, led by the The opposition parties boycotted the session, United National Movement (UNM) party, claiming that they solely want to debate harshly criticised the outcome of the election, Pshinyan's resignation. claiming that the results have been altered. In practice, the National Assembly could Inviting Georgian citizens to take the streets hold a vote of no confidence. According to against apparently rigged elections,27 the Armenian constitution, in order to thousands of people responded to the call by proceed to a vote of no confidence, at least a gathering in front of the Parliament. third of the National Assembly must present Members of the opposition demanded and called for new elections, declaring that the a draft decision. Thereafter, the decision must votes were manipulated. 28 In this regard, be adopted to a majority. Currently, the Prime Transparency International Georgia stated Minister's coalition My Step is holding a that there had been numerous obstruction majority of 88 on 132 seats. If a decision was during the voting procedure, including the to be voted, at this point, it would have more violation of vote secrecy, COVID 19 safety chances to fail. However, with the recent rules and issues during the counting.29 scrutiny the Prime Minister is facing, even On the other hand, the OSCE Parliamentary among his ranks, a shift could occur. Assembly (PA) and the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (PA) stated that, during the elections, the fundamental freedoms were respected. Overall, the institutions declared

25 Aljazeera (2020), Ruling party leads in Georgia’s 27 Aljazeera (2020). Georgia opposition rejects parliamentary vote: Exit polls. Retrieved 19 election results, stages protest. Retrieved 19 November 2020, from November 2020, from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/31/georgia- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/1/georgia- goes-to-polls-in-tense-elections ruling-party-declares-victory 26 ANSA (2020). Georgia:elezioni,opposizione 28 Ibid. chiama a protesta contro brogli. Retrieved 19 29 Agenda.ge (2020). TI Georgia: ‘31 October November 2020, from elections were a step back compared with 2016 https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/topnews/2020/11/01/ parliamentary elections’. Retrieved 19 November georgiaelezioniopposizione-chiama-a-protesta- 2020, from https://agenda.ge/en/news/2020/3428 contro-brogli_818ac37b-18e1-489f-a448- 59d7f9ea8282.html

8 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS that, despite the several challenges (a new police affirmed that their actions were electoral system and the COVID 19 proportional to the protesters' violence. On pandemic), the elections were handled the other hand, Nino Lomjaria (public efficiently. However, they acknowledge that defender), stated that the degree of violence in a few polling stations, there were problems was not justifiable. 33 related to social distancing and activists On the 14th of November, the opposition's advocating for their political beliefs.30 supporters gathered again to continue their The opposition parties did not recognise the protests, received the blessing of the UNM's legitimacy of the election; therefore, they leaders, including the former Georgian decided to sign a joint statement stating they president Mikheil Saakashvili, which stated would not be part of the formed Parliament. he is ready to establish a coalition group with Furthermore, they asked for new elections the other opposition parties.34 and for more electoral controls to avoid any In order to solve the quarrel between the fraud.31 Georgian Dream claimed that the opposition and the ruling party, the US election was legitimate and there was no Ambassador to Georgia Kelly Degnan, and proof of vote-rigging. other international relevant figures acted as However, the general dissatisfaction with the mediators. However, the meetings between outcome of the election grew steadily. On the the parts were not successful; the government 8th of November, various demonstrations refused to call for new elections whereas the took place in Tbilisi, where the protesters opposition kept denouncing ballot rigging, accused the government of fraud and asked to and so the need to vote again.35 Furthermore, vote again.32 In order to scatter the the OSCE PA solicited the opposition and the demonstrators (around 45.000), the Georgian government to work together to find a police used fired water cannon, injuring solution to solve the political impasse, stating several people. Moreover, some TV channels it is mandatory to respect the electors' will.36 stated that the police also used tear gas; The negotiations are still in progress. however, the police sent the accusation back to the sender. The use of fired water cannon has been censured; on the one hand, the

30 OSCE PA. (2020). Fundamental freedoms respected 33 Antidze, M. (2020). Georgian police fire water in competitive Georgian elections, but allegations of cannon at protesters who say polls were rigged. pressure and blurring of line between party and state Retrieved 19 November 2020, from reduced confidence. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-protest- https://www.oscepa.org/news-a-media/press- idUSKBN27O0MV releases/2020/fundamental-freedoms-respected-in- 34 Bellamy, D. (2020). Thousands rally outside competitive-georgian-elections-but-allegations-of- Georgia's parliament in protest at election. Retrieved pressure-and-blurring-of-line-between-party-and- 19 November 2020, from state-reduced-confidence-international-observers-say https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/14/thousands- 31 Jam News, (2020). Opposition parties in Georgia rally-outside-georgia-s-parliament-in-protest-at- sign joint statement renouncing their seats in election parliament. Retrieved 19 November 2020, from 35 Pipia, D. (2020). Georgian street protests, https://jam-news.net/georgia-document-nika-melia- negotiations running simultaneously. Retrieved 19 opposition-parliament-boycott-national-movement- November 2020, from https://jam-news.net/protest-in- lelo/ tbilisi-news-rigged-parliamentary-elections-georgia- 32 BBC, (2020). Georgia protests: Tbilisi police fire georgian-dream-kelly-degnan-photo/ water cannon at demonstrators. Retrieved 19 36 Civil.ge (2020). OSCE PA Leaders Call for November 2020, from Overcoming Political Deadlock in Georgia. Retrieved https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54868053 19 November 2020, from https://civil.ge/archives/382902

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The Karabakh Conflict in Georgia Tbilisi decided to contribute actively in the On the 9th of November, the hostilities ceasefire agreement; the peace in the region between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the is vital both in terms of economy and Nagorno-Karabakh region ceased. The two geopolitics. Georgia has economic ties both parties (joined with Vladimir Putin that acted with Armenia and Azerbaijan that range from as mediator) signed an armistice that entered gas industries and trade exports to tourism. 42 into force the following day. Georgian Furthermore, a few communities of President Salome Zurabishvili congratulated Armenians and Azerbaijani peacefully live in both Armenia and Azerbaijan for reaching an Georgia; a conflict in the neighbouring agreement and ending a conflict that was countries could exacerbate their relationship, weighting on the civilians living in the bringing new security issues, weakening and region.37 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of destabilising Tbilisi's authority.43 Georgia welcomed the truce between Yerevan and Baku; it stated that it is a great accomplishment that will help to de-escalate 38 and resolve the conflict. Furthermore, POST-SOVIET ASIA: The Struggle Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia declared he ith the leaders of Armenia and for Food Security

Azerbaijan, emphasising the importance of by Maximilian Feske the truce for the economic development of 39 the South Caucasus region. Overall, Georgia supports the talks between Yerevan Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan aiding Kyrgyzstan and Baku, as they contribute to building long- From the five states that make up the region term peace.40 of Central Asia, the Kyrgyz Republic was hit In order to face these adversities, in October, the hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic. In Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili terms of deaths per million inhabitants, it declared Georgia's availability to help the ranks 42nd on the OECD list of the worst-hit negotiations between Armenia and countries, followed by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Tsibili stated its neutrality in the Uzbekistan, ranking 61st and 109th conflict and the will to help both countries to respectively44. The containment measures reach an agreement. 41 which are being implemented since August

37 Georgia.ge (2020). Georgian President on Nagorno- Hopes-Nagorno-Karabakh-Deal-will-Contribute-to- Karabakh Deal: New Era Starts in the Caucasus. Full-scale-Resolution-of-Conflict Retrieved 20 November 2020, from 41 Civil.ge (2020). Georgian President Talks Nagorno- http://georgiatoday.ge/news/22992/Georgian- Karabakh, Tbilisi’s Neutrality. Retrieved 20 October President-on-Nagorno-Karabakh-Deal%3A-New- 2020, from https://civil.ge/archives/373210 Era-Starts-in-the-Caucasus 42 Seskuria, N. (2020). The Nagorno-Karabakh 38 Civil.ge (2020). Georgian Foreign Ministry Reacts Conflict and the Challenge for Georgia. Retrieved 20 to Karabakh Deal. Retrieved 20 November 2020, from November 2020, from https://civil.ge/archives/381766 https://rusi.org/commentary/nagorno-karabakh- 39 Agenda.ge (2020). PM Gakharia talks with conflict-and-challenge-georgia Armenian, Azerbaijani leaders following Karabakh 43 Ibid. truce. Retrieved 20 November 2020, from 44 OECD (2020): COVID-19 crisis response in https://agenda.ge/en/news/2020/3546 Central Asia, 40 Dumbadze, A. (2020). Georgia Hopes Nagorno- https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy- Karabakh Deal will Contribute to Full-scale responses/covid-19-crisis-response-in-central-asia- Resolution of Conflict. Retrieved 20 November 2020, 5305f172/, rev. 2020-11-19. from http://georgiatoday.ge/news/22993/Georgia-

10 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS seem to be proving effective, with a clear relations in the past. It remains to be seen stabilization in number of deaths and a slower whether the planned aid delivery coupled increase in the number of confirmed cases45. with recent rhetoric on regional security and Nonetheless, the closed border situation with stability herald a new era of cooperation its neighbouring states created a new obstacle among Central Asian countries48. and worsened the economic situation of Kyrgyz labour migrants. While gaining FAO encouraging digitalization for control of one crisis, the sudden ousting of its agricultural development government in early October has added a new The cooperation in the field of food security political crisis to Kyrgyzstan’s uncertain extends beyond the region. From November path. 1st to 4th, Uzbekistan hosted the 32nd session The new Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbaev of the Food and Agricultural Organization’s has been visiting and requesting help from (FAO) Regional Conference for Europe, this Kazakhstan on October 29th and Uzbekistan time virtually49. Leading representatives of on November 6th, after the Kremlin had 51 governments, international organizations, frozen $100 million in financial aid that were civil society, young farmers and the private promised to the former Kyrgyz government sector from Europe and Central Asia of Sooronbay Jeenbekov46. These funds discussed the connection between digital would have been necessary in mitigating the technologies and agricultural innovation50. state’s growing budgetary deficit. In fact, and The member states called on the FAO to perhaps surprisingly, both Kazakhstan and support them, especially in mitigating the Uzbekistan agreed to aiding Kyrgyzstan impacts of COVID-19 and strengthening financially to support its budget and ensure long-term resilience of food systems. The food security, without mentioning details, FAO’s COVID-19 Response and Recovery however. Additionally, they agreed to Program was launched in July to specifically sending hospital equipment and medicine for achieve these goals. With a call for initial the battle against the coronavirus47. investments of $1,2 billion, the program aims Uzbekistan even went so far as to declare its to assist the most affected countries and could readiness to construct a medical and health therefore provide the Central Asian states institution. with region-tailored programmatic solutions Over two decades ago, in early 1997, to the evolving socio-economic and Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan environmental consequences of the global signed an Eternal Friendship Treaty in health crisis in the food and agriculture Bishkek – a document, which failed to unfold a measurable impact on the intraregional

45 WFP (2020): Impact of COVID-19 in the Middle of-central-asian-cooperation-uzbekistan-kazakhstan- East, North Africa, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe. help-a-neighbor/30950079.html, rev. 2020-11-19. Update #6, 48 ibid. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/ 49 FAO (2020): FAO Regional Conference for Europe WFP-0000120508.pdf, rev. 2020-11-19, 6. (ERC 32), 46 Pannier, B. (2020): New Kyrgyz Leadership Gets http://www.fao.org/about/meetings/erc32/en/?utm_so A Cold Reception From The Kremlin, urce=miragenews&utm_medium=miragenews&utm_ https://www.rferl.org/a/new-kyrgyz-leadership-gets- campaign=news, rev. 2020-11-19. a-cold-reception-from-the-kremlin/30926407.html, 50 Mirage (2020): Innovation and digitalization key rev. 2020-11-19. for agriculture development in Europe and Central 47 Pannier, B. (2020): A New Era Of Central Asian Asia, https://www.miragenews.com/innovation-and- Cooperation? Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan Help A digitalization-key-for-agriculture-development-in- Neighbor In Need, https://www.rferl.org/a/new-era- europe-and-central-asia/, rev 2020-11-19.

11 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS sector51. However, concrete projects are yet to be identified, which makes an implementation and impact on the ground before Spring 2021 rather unlikely.

51 FAO Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia: in the food and agriculture sector, FAO Regional High-level Dialogue for Europe and http://www.fao.org/europe/events/detail- Central Asia - Multi-Partner Response to COVID-19 events/en/c/1308398/, rev. 2020-11-19.

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