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Monthly Briefs Monthly Briefs CCEENNTTRRAALL&&EEAASSTTEERRNN EEUURROOPPEE MMOONNTTHHLLYY BBRRIIEEFFSS NOVEMBER 2 0 2 0 N O V E M B E R , 2 0 2 0 Copyright © CeNtre for Security ANalysis and Prevention All rights are reserved The CeNtral aNd EasterN Europe MoNthly Briefs concisely summarise the latest events and issues on a regioNal aNd iNterNatioNal level. A group of young scholars and researchers combine their desk- research skills with data aNalysis iN order to provide a bigger picture on different regions and their poteNtial developmeNts. CoordiNator: FraNcesco Trupia, PhD CoNtributors for EasterN Europe: KateryNa Halushka, Luca Dilda, Gilles de Valk, Maximilian Feske, Nicoleta Mirza, DaNiel Drury, Alice Griffon 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS On October 27, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine made a ruling legitimizing UKRAINE. The Controversial “inaccurate asset declaration” which benefits Ruling of the Constitutional Court the interests of the judges of that same court according to the National Agency of the Spikes an International Scandal Corruption Prevention. The agency had by Kate Halushka earlier claimed that two judges that participated in this decision-making were found to fill false information in their At the end of October 2020, Ukraine has declarations. This ruling repeals the Article entered a judicial crisis triggered by some 366-1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine controversial and unconstitutional decisions regarding the issue of criminal liability of the taken by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine government officials. Agency drew also against the widespread phenomenon of attention to the fact that those judges had a corruption. conflict of interest and, therefore, with no Ukraine has a long-lasting history of the right to partake such a decision. Ukrainian process: before the Revolution of Dignity this Parliament envoy to the Court, Olha Sovhiria function was attributed to the National Anti- has also stressed that the Constitutional Corruption Committee, however, its Court’s ruling was taken with severe effectiveness was consistently low. In 2014 procedural violations. National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine On the next day, the National Agency on (NABU) was formed with the support of the Corruption Prevention closed access to the European Union and the International State E-declarations Register abiding by the Monetary Fund and was called for fighting ruling. However, soon after, they were against large-scale corruption cases in ordered by the government to restore the Ukraine. access due to the international backlash. If all In the same year, Ukraine signed an cases of inaccurate declarations would be Association Agreement with the European closed, convicted officials would get the Union that outlined a number of areas where chance to escape responsibility. Ukraine committed to implementing reforms President Zelensky proposed termination of including banking, decentralization, energy, the powers of the Constitutional Court judges judiciary, etc. This agreement serves as the and suggests to start a new process of main tool to increase political and economic appointment immediately. His bill No. 4288 cooperation with Ukraine and develops was proposed to the Parliament where he respect for common values. Since then, clearly stated that the ruling of the Ukraine has improved in many areas Constitutional Court is “null and void” and that judges had a conflict of interest. On the according to the latest report released by the rd Foreign Affairs Committee MEPs on the 10th 3 of November, the European Union of November. However, it has also been reminded Ukraine of the need to restore the mentioned that further work on the judiciary proper work of the anti-corruption bodies by is necessary since this branch of power stays the 16th of December. the least trusted till now. The pressing need Representatives of the Venice Commission for visible results of combating corruption is and GRECO signed a letter urging the also needed in order to maintain support for Parliament and President Zelensky to restore reforms from the population. trust in the judicial system and warned about 1 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS the harsh consequences of passing a bill for possibility of an international scandal and termination of Constitutional Court judges. well as shading light on the judicial system in Matti Maasikas who is the Ambassador of the Ukraine European Union Ukraine commented on the issue stating that a visa-free regime and financial assistance of the EU and the BELARUS. Lukashenko Militarises International Monetary Fund is conditional his Regime while Tikhanovskaya on the successful implementation of the reforms including proper functioning of the Seeks Support in Europe anti-corruption institutions. Ukraine has by Gilles de Valk already received US$5 bln loans from the IMF and awaits to receive EUR 1.2 bln from the EU. On the 29th of October, the European Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’ self- Union published an official statement proclaimed president, has responded to the questioning the international commitment of Ukraine following the ruling of the continuing protests in Belarus with more Constitutional Court. This ruling has broad violence, as he is surrounding himself with negative consequences on the anti-corruption people from the security services and the strategy of Ukraine established following the military. Revolution of Dignity in 2014. This strategy Meanwhile, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the is a key factor in European cooperation with opposition leader in exile, has been visiting Ukraine through the Association Agreement several European countries, seeking their and the Macro-Financial Assistance program. European Union appreciates the rapid support in achieving a democratic transition reaction of the President and the Government in Belarus. However, the European Union’s and wishes that issue will be quickly resolved sanctions against Belarusian officials seem to by restoring access to the e-declarations. This have little impact on Lukashenko’s regime’s crisis highlighted a need for further actions. There is no indication Lukashenko implementation of judicial reform. will leave voluntarily or will start a credible Representatives of the Council of Europe also expressed concern in the ruling and urged the dialogue with the opposition. Instead, the Ukrainian government “to take all necessary most likely way out of this situation seems to actions to restore the effective functioning of be violent escalation, without any certainty the e-declaration system”, while also about the outcome. maintaining long-term independence of the Demonstrations have not ceased, surprising judiciary. Ukrainian representative also met observers, who witnessed 25.000 people with the ambassadors of the G7 countries as getting arrested over the first three months of well as U.S. and Japan envoys and discussed possible resolution of the issue according to the protests. Furthermore, 1.500 complaints the press release on 30th of October. about torture and beatings have been The controversial ruling of the Constitutional registered at the Belarussian Investigative Court of Ukraine undermines efforts of the Committee, although the Committee is Ukrainian government at the implementation unlikely to follow up on them. In response to of the reforms and European integration the authorities’ brutalities, Tikhanovskaya outlined in the Association Agreement. Fast announced the creation of a ‘People’s resolution of the issue is needed due to the Tribunal’, intending to prosecute the regime 2 2020 NOVEMBER BRIEFS for those crimes. On top of that, she called for the West under Biden can lead Lukashenko ‘the most massive march’ on 20 December. to increase his brutal methods of repression Despite the continuing mass demonstrations, in order to end the protests. Lukashenko Lukashenko succeeded in maintaining power probably does not see another way out. The by appointing people from the security outcome could be an even more repressive services (siloviki) and the military to dictatorship or a breakdown of the current powerful positions. In this way, he gains their regime. loyalty but also makes them complicit in the regime’s crimes. As the siloviki risk prosecution in case of a victory for the protesters, possibilities for appeasing society The EU and the Visegrad group: peacefully are shrinking. In the meantime, Dispute stalls coronavirus recovery Lukashenko will try to find a balance plan between retaining the siloviki’s loyalty and by Daniel Drury keeping them in check, since one of ‘his own’ could topple him if he does not get the situation under control. The EU’s coronavirus response has hit an Foreign actors could play a role in limiting or obstacle in the past week with Hungary and increasing Lukashenko’s grip on the Poland blocking the proposed EU budget and demonstrations. Although the EU’s impact with it, the EU’s €750 billion coronavirus on this situation seems to remain limited, the recovery fund. Out of the 27 member states, prospect of Joe Biden becoming the US the two nations, both part of the Visegrad President in January might scare Lukashenko group, used their veto power to stall the more. Biden said he would impose new endorsement of the budget in the meeting of sanctions and guaranteed support for the the 27 ambassadors. The budget and the demonstrators. This might be one of the recovery fund required unanimous support reasons Lukashenko has responded more and could not be passed by a qualified brutally to demonstrations recently and why majority vote. Hungary and Poland have
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