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Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2009-2010

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ISSN 1648-8024 General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius StRAteGIc ReSeARch centeR LIthUAnIAn AnnUAL StRAteGIc ReVIeW 2009–2010 Vilnius 2010 EDITORIAL BOARD Stefano Guzzini (Uppsala University; Danish Institute for International Studies), Algimantas Jankauskas (University of Vilnius), Pertti L. Joenniemi (Danish Institute for International Studies), Kimitaka Matsuzato (Hokaido University), Petr Kratochvil (Institute of International Relations Prague), Rolandas Kačinskas (Ministry of Foreign Affair of the Republic of Lithuania), Jūratė Novagrockienė (Military Academy of Lithuania; University of Vilnius), Žaneta Ozoliņa (University of Latvia), Valdas Rakutis (Military Academy of Lithuania), Vytautas Umbrasas (Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Lithuania), Egidijus Vareikis (Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania), Ramūnas Vilpišauskas (University of Vilnius) EXECUTIVE EDITOR Gediminas Vitkus (Military Academy of Lithuania; University of Vilnius) MAKE-UP EDITOR Amy Elizabeth Smith DESIGNED BY Ramunė Lukštienė Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, 2009-2010 This is a peer reviewed annual research publication published by the Military Academy of Lithuania in co-operation with the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of the University of Vilnius. The main objective of this publication is to provide the readers with a wide-scale ana- lysis and generalization of the changes, both essential and significant, in relation to the national security of Lithuania at the international–systemic, regional, and national levels. The yearbook also aims to give maximum emphasis to the specificity of Lithuanian national security issues and comprehensively present them to a widely interested and concerned audience. © Authors of the articles, 2010 © Military Academy of Lithuania, 2010 content Preface .......................................................................................................5 Global International System and Lithuania ..................................... 7 The Interpretations of the Impact of Military Change on the International System Karolis Aleksa .............................................................................................9 NATO at 60: Lost in Transformation Kęstutis Paulauskas ..................................................................................31 NATO Transformation Scenarios Martynas Zapolskis ..................................................................................55 changing european Security Space ............................................... 79 European Union Sanctions Policy Martynas Lukoševičius ............................................................................81 Regional Cooperation within the European Economic Area Mindaugas Jurkynas ..............................................................................113 Lithuania’s eastern neighbourhood ............................................. 131 Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Russia’s Foreign Economic Policy Liudas Zdanavičius ................................................................................133 Moldova’s Security Strategy: the Problem of Permanent Neutrality Laura Kirvelytė ......................................................................................157 national Security Issues ...................................................................... 185 Lithuania in the NATO Mission in Afghanistan: Between Idealism and Pragmatism Egdūnas Račius ......................................................................................187 5 Preface The Strategic Research Centre of the Lithuanian Military Academy and the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius University are proud to present their readers with, the 8th Volume of the Lithuanian An- nual Strategic Review. This volume of the Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review is devoted to the actualities and problems of the security policy of Lithuania, Europe and the world in 2009 – 2010, this despite the raging financial crisis that has considerably limited former capabilities and imposed correction of pre-planned ideas. Starting with this publication we will cover in the Review, not only the previous, but also the current year because due to certain circums- tances, our publication generally comes to light only in the second half of the year. This way our authors have the possibility to discuss actualities pertaining to both the previous year and the first half of the current year. The first section of the Review is called “Global International System and Lithuania” and contains three studies. Karolis Aleksa, in the theoretical article “The Interpretations of the Impact of Military Change on the International System,” compares the impact of changes in the military under different types of international systems and proves that a military change becomes a much more destabilizing factor in the wake of the disintegration of the bi-polar inter- national system of the cold-war time than it used to be. Two other texts in this section deal with NATO continuing to further improve its strategic conception. Kęstutis Paulauskas elaborates upon the existence problems of the Alliance and provides an assessment of Lithuania’s five-year membership within NATO, while Martynas Zapolskis employs the method of scenario building and further analyzes plausible directions of NATO transformation and their impact on the formation of foreign policy and the security policy of Lithuania. The second section of the publication, titled “Changing European Securi- ty Space,” is comprised of two studies. Martynas Lukoševičius examines the under analyzed sanctions policy of the European Union. These sanctions are largely a key measure of the European Union foreign policy, aiming at strengthening its visibility in global politics; yet according to the author, the effectiveness of these sanctions has been rather insignificant. Mindaugas Jurkynas, in his empi- ric study, explores tangents for enhanced cooperation between the European Union’s and European Economic Area’s regional cooperation mechanisms. In the third section of the “Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review 2009 – 2010, titled “Lithuania’s Eastern Neighbourhood”, readers will find studies by two researchers. Liudas Zdanavičius, in his article “Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Russia’s Foreign Economic Policy” assesses the consequences of the crisis on the economy of the country and discusses the main actions by Mos- cow in seeking to strengthen Russia’s weight in the global economic system. A comprehensive and multifaceted study by Laura Kirvelytė, “Moldova’s Security Strategy: The Problem of Permanent Neutrality” acquaints the reader with the peculiarities of Moldova‘s neutrality and the main problems of this security 6 strategy. Factors of Moldova‘s neutrality are herein analyzed from different theoretical perspectives. The author also touches upon Moldova‘s security dilemma in the aftermath of the war between Russia and Georgia. The fourth section of the Review titled “National Security Issues,” traditionally analyzes urgent aspects, issues, and cases of national security in Lithuania. Readers have the possibility to look through one research study. This section includes an article by Egdūnas Račius “Lithuania in the NATO Mission in Afghanistan: Between Idealism and Pragmatism,” which raises the issue, whether taking into consideration the economic situation in the entire world as well as in Lithuania and deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan, and the tactics chosen for the implementation of foreign policy objectives, will it justify itself in the long-term perspective and what scenarios could cover its further development. We wish our readers an interesting acquaintance with the new research studies. Please, note that this and previous volumes of the “Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review” are located on the General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania website of scientific electronic library and are available at all times. It is also a pleasure to point out that, starting with this edition, authoritative colleagues from Latvia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Japan will start supporting the editorial board of the publication with their experience and advice. Editorial Board Global International System and Lithuania 9 Karolis Aleksa* Institute of International Relations and Political Science, University of Vilnius the Interpretations of the Impact of Military change on the International System This article presents a theoretical approach of analysis and estimate of the influence of military change on international relations, as well as the interpretations of the impact of military change on international systems during various historical periods. The first part of the paper defines the term of the fundamental military change and the cycle of the fundamental military change in the international system; it also presents some insights of the offense-defence balance theory with the estimate of the impact of military change on international relations. The second part of the article describes various cases of the influence of fundamental military changes on the international system until the invention of the nuclear weapon (the revolutions of artillery, firearms and naval warfare from the 15th until the 17th c.). The chapter on the nuclear era provides an analysis about the role of military changes during and
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