DOCSLIB.ORG

MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Cilt Volume 6 • Sayı Number 2 • Ocak January 2015

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Cilt Volume 6 • Sayı Number 2 • Ocak January 2015 Siyaset ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Journal of Politics and International Relations RTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Cilt Volume 6 • Sayı Number 2 • Ocak January 2015 • Syria’s Firestorm: Where from? Where to? William Harris • Hizballah’s Resilience During the Arab Uprisings Joseph Alagha Implications of the Arab Spring for Iran’s Policy towards the • Middle East Bayram Sinkaya Implications of the Arab Uprisings on the Islamist Movement: • Lessons from Ikhwan in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan Nur Köprülü European Powers and the Naissance of Weak States in the • Arab Middle East After World War I 2 • Ocak Gudrun Harrer Unpredictable Power Broker: Russia’s Role in Iran’s Nuclear • Capability Development Muhammet Fatih Özkan & Gürol Baba • Israel and the Gas Resources of the Levant Basin A. Murat Ağdemir 6 • Sayı İranlı Kadınların Hatıratlarında İran-Irak Savaşı: Seyyide • Fiyatı: 12 TL Zehra Hoseyni’nin Da’sını Yorumlamak Metin Yüksel BOOK REVIEWS • The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World ORSAM Rümeysa Eldoğan ISSN: 1309-1557 ORSAM ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STRATEGIC STUDIES ORTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Siyaset ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Journal of Politics and International Relations Ocak 2015, Cilt 6, Sayı 2 / January 2015, Volume 6, No 2 www.orsam.org.tr Hakemli Dergi / Refereed Journal Yılda iki kez yayımlanır / Published biannualy Sahibi / Owner: Şaban KARDAŞ, TOPAZ A.Ş. adına / on behalf of TOPAZ A.Ş. Editör / Editor-in-Chief: Özlem TÜR Yardımcı Editör/ Associate Editor: Ali Balcı Kitap Eleştirisi Editörü/ Book Review Editor: Gülriz Şen Yönetici Editör / Managing Editör: Tamer KOPARAN Sorumlu Yazı İşleri Müdürü / Managing Coordinator: Habib HÜRMÜZLÜ YAYIN KURULU / EDITORIAL BOARD Meliha Altunışık Middle East Technical University İlker Aytürk Bilkent Universitesi Recep Boztemur Middle East Technical University Katerina Dalacoura London School of Economics F. Gregory Gause Vermont University Fawaz Gerges London School of Economics Mahmoud Hamad Drake University/ Cairo University Raymond Hinnebusch St. Andrews University Tim Jacoby Manchester University Akif Kireçci Bilkent Universitesi Bahgat Korany American University of Cairo Peter Mandaville George Mason University Emma Murphy Durham University Harun Öztürkler Kırıkkale Universitesi Ortadoğu Etütleri şu indeksler tarafından taranmaktadır / indexed by; Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), EBSCO Host, Index Islamicus, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBBS), Worldwide Political Science Abstracts (WPSA). Makale Önerileri İçin / Submitting Your Articles: Özlem Tür / [email protected] Yayın İdare Merkezi / Head Office: ORSAM Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi - Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies Süleyman Nazif Sokak No: 12-B Kat: 3-4 Çankaya-Ankara Türkiye/Turkey Tel: +90 (312) 430 26 09 Fax: +90 (312) 430 39 48 [email protected] Tasarım Uygulama / Graphic Design Orient Basım Yayın Kazım Özalp Mah. Rabat Sok. No:27/2 GOP, Çankaya/ANKARA Tel: 0 (312) 431 21 55 Baskı / Printing Center Salmat Basım Basım Tarihi / Printed: 15 Ocak / January 2015 Ulusal Süreli Yayın Ortadoğu Etütleri’ndeki makalelerde yer alan fikirler yalnızca yazarlarını bağlamaktadır. The views expressed in Ortadogu Etütleri (Middle Eastern Studies) bind exclusively their authors. RTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ ORTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ / MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES OCAK 2015, Cilt 6, Sayı 2 / JANUARY 2015, Volume 6, No 2 CONTENTS / İÇİNDEKİLER Syria’s Firestorm: Where from? Where to?................................................... 8 Suriye’nin Ateş Fırtınası: Nereden, Nereye? William Harris Hizballah’s Resilience During the Arab Uprisings........................................ 28 Arap İsyanları Sırasında Hizbullah’ın Direnci Joseph Alagha Implications of the Arab Spring for Iran’s Policy towards the Middle East..... 54 Arap Baharı’nın İran’ın Ortadoğu Politikasına Etkileri Bayram Sinkaya Implications of the Arab Uprisings on the Islamist Movement: Lessons from Ikhwan in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan............................................................ 80 Arap Ayaklanmalarının İslami Hareket Üzerindeki Etkileri: Tunus, Mısır ve Ürdün İhvan’ından Dersler Nur Köprülü European Powers and the Naissance of Weak States in the Arab Middle East After World War I......................................................................................... 96 Avrupa Güçleri ve I. Dünya Savaşı Sonrasında Arap Ortadoğusunda Zayıf Devletlerin Doğuşu Gudrun Harrer Unpredictable Power Broker: Russia’s Role in Iran’s Nuclear Capability Development................................................................................................ 112 Öngörülemeyen Güç Simsarı: İran’ın Nükleer Kapasite Geliştirmesinde Rusya’nın Rolü Muhammet Fatih Özkan & Gürol Baba Israel and the Gas Resources of the Levant Basin.......................................... 136 İsrail ve Levant Havzasının Gaz Kaynakları A. Murat Ağdemir İranlı Kadınların Hatıratlarında İran-Irak Savaşı: Seyyide Zehra Hoseyni’nin Da’sını Yorumlamak......................................................................................156 The Iran-Iraq War in Iranian Women’s Memoirs: Reading Seyyedeh Zahra Hosseini’s Da. Metin Yüksel Book Reviews / Kitap İnceleme The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World.................175 Rümeysa Eldoğan From the Editor Ortadoğu Etütleri in its January 2015 issue, brings together eight articles and a book review. Like the previous issues, this issue starts with an article analysing the ongoing conflict in Syria. William Harris, in his article titledSyria’s Firestorm – Where From? Where To? points out the limitations of conflict resolution approaches and calls for a political solution in the Syrian conflict and presents us with the idea that a military solution can be the only way out of this crisis. By looking at the sources, characteristics and the trajectory of the conflict, the author pays a spe- cial attention to Russian, US, Iranian and the Turkish roles in the development of the crisis and by integrating the domestic and the external dynamics assesses the future trajectory of the Syrian conflict. Joseph Alagha in his article titled Hizballah’s Resilience During the Arab Uprisings looks at length to the historical evolution of Hizballah and the transformation it went through in the past three decades. The author discusses Hizballah’s role in the Syrian conflict – its active fighting in Syria. By integrating the speeches of Nasrallah and other Lebanese actors involved to his analysis, Alagha looks not only at Hizballah’s role but also the spill-over effects of the Syrian conflict in Lebanon. In the third article of this issue, Implications of the Arab Spring for Iran’s Policy Towards the Middle East, Bayram Sinkaya analyses how the Arab Spring made an impact on Iran’s Middle East policy. Arguing that the changes in the evolution of the Arab Uprisings makes it difficult to talk about one Iranian policy, the author looks at the change from an initial optimism to a growing anxiety. The article examines how the coming to power of Rouhani in 2013 has brought a moderate approach to Iranian foreign policy, made the nuclear issue and relations with the US a policy-priority, led to closer relations with the Gulf countries and yet how this moderation and the “constructive engagement” remains short when it comes to the Syrian conflict. In the article titled, Implications of the Arab Uprisings on the Islamist Movement: Lessons from Ikhwan in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, Nur Köprülü argues that it is difficult to generalize the effects of the Uprisings on the Muslim Brotherhood in the region and calls for a case-by case analysis. The author questions Jillian Schwedler’s argument regarding the linkage between inclusion into politics and moderation of movements and argues that Ikhwan is in general moderate and 5 January 2015 can be effective in keeping the more radical and salafist groups from finding a support base in these three countries –Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan. Gudrun Harrer in European Powers and the Naissance of weak States in the Arab Mid- dle East After World War I, analyzes in details the post-World War 1 era and the legacy of the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Challenging the argument that Sykes-Picot and the artificial borders it created are the reason of the problems of the Middle East both in terms of the content and implementation of this agreement, the author ar- gues how this idea is dominant in the region. Putting the emphasis and the blame on the changing policies of the British and the French after the World War, the author relates her arguments to the offer of the Islamic State (Daesh) today in the Middle East. Muhammet Fatih Özkan and Gürol Baba, in their article, Unpredictable Power Bro- ker: Russia’s Role in Iran’s Nuclear Capability Development, put the mediation ap- proaches to at the core of their analysis. The article argues that Russia had been a part of Iran’s nuclear capability development, yet its position against the possibility of Iran acquiring military grade nuclear technology makes it a “very suitable mediator” in the process. The authors argue how Russia, as a Great Power utilizes mediation as a means of influence and dominates an international dispute rather than solving it. In his article titled, The Iran-Iraq War in Iranian Women’s Memoirs: Reading Seyye- deh Zahra Hosseini’s Da, Metin Yüksel critically examines a woman’s memoirs,on the Iran-Iraq War. The work calledDa ,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Lebanon: Background and US Policy
    Lebanon: Background and U.S. Policy name redacted Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs April 4, 2014 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R42816 Lebanon: Background and U.S. Policy Summary Lebanon’s small geographic size and population belie the important role it has long played in the security, stability, and economy of the Levant and the broader Middle East. Congress and the executive branch have recognized Lebanon’s status as a venue for regional strategic competition and have engaged diplomatically, financially, and at times, militarily to influence events there. For most of its independent existence, Lebanon has been torn by periodic civil conflict and political battles between rival religious sects and ideological groups. External military intervention, occupation, and interference have exacerbated Lebanon’s political struggles in recent decades. Lebanon is an important factor in U.S. calculations regarding regional security, particularly regarding Israel and Iran. Congressional concerns have focused on the prominent role that Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Shia Muslim militia, political party, and U.S.-designated terrorist organization, continues to play in Lebanon and beyond, including its recent armed intervention in Syria. Congress has appropriated more than $1 billion since the end of the brief Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006 to support U.S. policies designed to extend Lebanese security forces’ control over the country and promote economic growth. The civil war in neighboring Syria is progressively destabilizing Lebanon. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 1 million predominantly Sunni Syrian refugees have fled to Lebanon, equivalent to close to one-quarter of Lebanon’s population.
    [Show full text]
  • The EU, Resilience and the MENA Region
    REGION ENA THE EU, RESILIENCE The EU Global Strategy outlines an ambitious set of objectives to refashion the EU’s foreign and security policy. Fostering state and AND THE MENA REGION societal resilience stands out as a major goal of the strategy, con- HE M T ceived both as a means to enhance prevention and early warning and as a long-term investment in good governance, stability and prosperity. This book collects the results of a research project designed and implemented by FEPS and IAI exploring different understandings of resilience on the basis of six MENA state and societal contexts, mapping out the challenges but also positive reform actors and dynamics within them as a first step towards operationalizing the concept of resilience. U, RESILIENCE AND E FEPS is the progressive political foundation established at the European level. Created in 2007, it aims at establishing an intellec- tual crossroad between social democracy and the European project. THE As a platform for ideas and dialogue, FEPS works in close collabora- tion with social democratic organizations, and in particular national foundations and think tanks across and beyond Europe, to tackle the challenges that we are facing today. FEPS inputs fresh thinking at the core of its action and serves as an instrument for pan-Euro- pean, intellectual political reflection. IAI is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of European integration and multilateral cooperation. IAI is part of a vast international research network, and interacts and cooperates with the Italian government and its ministries, European and inter- national institutions, universities, major national economic actors, the media and the most authoritative international think tanks.
    [Show full text]
  • Aging Politicians of Lebanon Aging Politicians of Lebanon
    issue number 154 |May 2015 STATE EMPLOYMENT IN 2014: 69% MUSLIMS VS. 31% CHRISTIANS THE WOMEN OF LEBANON IN STATISTICS THE MONTHLY INTERVIEWS POET JOUMANA CHAHOUD NAJJAR www.monthlymagazine.com Published by Information International sal AGING POLITICIANS OF LEBANON FOUAD BOUTROS: 98 MICHEL EDDEH: 87 ABDUL LATIF ZEIN: 85 MICHEL EL-MURR: 84 Lebanon 5,000LL | Saudi Arabia 15SR | UAE 15DHR | Jordan 2JD| Syria 75SYP | Iraq 3,500IQD | Kuwait 1.5KD | Qatar 15QR | Bahrain 2BD | Oman 2OR | Yemen 15YRI | Egypt 10EP | Europe 5Euros May INDEX 2015 4 AGING POLITICIANS OF LEBANON 10 STATE EMPLOYMENT IN 2014: 69% MUSLIMS VS. 31% CHRISTIANS 12 45 VACANCIES ON BOARDS OF DIRECTORS 15 WHEN WILL MPS ATTEND SESSION ON ELECTIONS? 17 VICTIMS OF GUNFIRE ON OCCASIONS OF JOY OR SORROW 18 PORT OF BEIRUT: PUBLIC SECTOR RUN BY A PROVISIONAL COMMITTEE FOR 25 YEARS P: 30 P: 20 20 THE WOMEN OF LEBANON IN STATISTICS 24 THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES CENTER BUILDING 25 A STAR FROM MY COUNTRY AND WRITERS FROM MY COUNTRY 26 THE EXTENSION OF PARLIAMENT’S TERM SPREADS FROM LEBANON TO YEMEN 27 GEORGE FRAM (1934-2006) P: 18 29 ETHICS AND DEEDS: ANTOINE BOUTROS 30 INTERVIEW: POET JOUMANA CHAHOUD NAJJAR 32 ANERA 45 THIS MONTH IN HISTORY- LEBANON ISRAEL’S WARS ON LEBANON: OPERATION GRAPES 34 POPULAR CULTURE OF WRATH 35 DEBUNKING MYTH#92: WILL SWALLOWED GUM 46 THIS MONTH IN HISTORY- ARAB WORLD STAY IN YOUR SYSTEM FOR YEARS? EXECUTION OF ELI COHEN, THE MOST THREATENING DANGEROUS SPY PLANTED IN SYRIA BY ISRAEL 36 MUST-READ BOOKS: BEIRUT: IMAGES IN MY MEMORY 48 TERRORIST GROUPS PRETENDING TO PIERRE MAADANJIAN STAND FOR ISLAM (4) THE ARMED ISLAMIC GROUP IN ALGERIA 37 MUST-READ CHILDREN’S BOOK: ..WA YAJI’OU YAWMON AKHAR 49 REAL ESTATE PRICES - MARCH 2015 38 LEBANON FAMILIES: TABEEKH FAMILIES 50 DID YOU KNOW THAT?: TOP FIVE LOST TREASURES OF THE WORLD 39 DISCOVER LEBANON: HAZMIEH 50 RAFIC HARIRI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 40 DISCOVER THE WORLD: AUSTRIA TRAFFIC - MARCH 2015 41 MARCH 2015 HIGHLIGHTS 51 LEBANON’S STATS |EDITORIAL THE DAWN OF A NEW ERA IN SYRIA Excerpts from chapters 15 and 16 of Margaret Mc.
    [Show full text]
  • Political Leadership in Lebanon and the Jumblatt Phenomenon: Tipping the Scales of Lebanese Politics Sebastian Gerlach
    SAIS EUROPE JOURNAL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS Political Leadership in Lebanon and the Jumblatt Phenomenon: Tipping the Scales of Lebanese Politics Sebastian Gerlach For observers and scholars of contemporary Lebanese politics, an understanding of Lebanon’s complex political dynamics is hardly possible without a thorough analysis of the role of Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the country’s Druze community. Notwithstanding his sect’s marginal size, Jumblatt has for almost four decades greatly determined the course of domestic developments. Particularly between 2000 and 2013, the Druze leader developed into a local kingmaker through his repeated switch in affiliations between Lebanon’s pro- and anti-Syrian coalitions. This study argues that Jumblatt’s political behavior during this important period in recent Lebanese history was driven by his determination to ensure the political survival of his Druze minority community. Moreover, it highlights that Jumblatt’s ongoing command over the community, which appears to be impressive given his frequent political realignments, stems from his position as the dominating, traditional Druze za’im and because the minority community recognized his political maneuvering as the best mean to provide the Druze with relevance in Lebanon’s political arena. 84 VOLUME 20 INTRODUCTION who failed to preserve their follower- ship after altering their political ori- For observers and scholars of con- 2 temporary Lebanese politics, a thor- entation. In this respect, it is even ough understanding of the country’s more puzzling that Jumblatt was able complex political dynamics is hardly to maintain the support of his Druze possible without analyzing the role of community, known for its nega- Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Leba- tive attitudes towards the prominent non’s Druze community.
    [Show full text]
  • The EU, Resilience and the MENA Region
    REGION ENA THE EU, RESILIENCE The EU Global Strategy outlines an ambitious set of objectives to refashion the EU’s foreign and security policy. Fostering state and AND THE MENA REGION societal resilience stands out as a major goal of the strategy, con- HE M T ceived both as a means to enhance prevention and early warning and as a long-term investment in good governance, stability and prosperity. This book collects the results of a research project designed and implemented by FEPS and IAI exploring different understandings of resilience on the basis of six MENA state and societal contexts, mapping out the challenges but also positive reform actors and dynamics within them as a first step towards operationalizing the concept of resilience. U, RESILIENCE AND E FEPS is the progressive political foundation established at the European level. Created in 2007, it aims at establishing an intellec- tual crossroad between social democracy and the European project. THE As a platform for ideas and dialogue, FEPS works in close collabora- tion with social democratic organizations, and in particular national foundations and think tanks across and beyond Europe, to tackle the challenges that we are facing today. FEPS inputs fresh thinking at the core of its action and serves as an instrument for pan-Euro- pean, intellectual political reflection. IAI is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to promote awareness of international politics and to contribute to the advancement of European integration and multilateral cooperation. IAI is part of a vast international research network, and interacts and cooperates with the Italian government and its ministries, European and inter- national institutions, universities, major national economic actors, the media and the most authoritative international think tanks.
    [Show full text]
  • Saudi Arabian Uncertainties in Lebanon (January 2011 – January 2017)
    April 2017 Saudi Arabian uncertainties in Lebanon (January 2011 – January 2017) ZIAD MAJED WWW . FRSTRATEGIE . ORG Table of contents 1 – 2011-2015: A CONCERNED AND SHAKEN SAUDI ARABIA FAVOURS MAINTAINING THE LEBANESE STATUS QUO .................................................................................. 3 2 – THE SALMAN ERA : PRIORITISATION OF YEMEN AND THE CONFLICT WITH HEZBOLLAH .... 5 3 – SOME SCENARIOS ................................................................................................. 7 FONDATION pour la RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE 2 Since the fall of Saad Hariri’s government in January of 2011, the resignation of Shia ministers and their Christian allies, and the demonstration of Hezbollah’s power in the streets of Beirut, Saudi policy towards Lebanon can be divided into two main phases. The first, from February 2011 to January 2015, is characterized by a certain passivity while avoiding any form of political escalation within the country. The second, which started in February of 2015, consisted of temporarily abandoning Lebanon in favour of pursuing other priorities. However, this phase could shift in the coming months as American President Donald Trump’s policies in Iran and the Middle East become clearer 1. 1 – 2011-2015: A concerned and shaken Saudi Arabia favours maintaining the Lebanese status quo Since the beginning of the Arab revolutions, the Saudi regime’s anxiety was obvious. The “Peninsula Shield” intervention in Bahrain that supported the Khalifa regime (March 2011), the search for political compromise (between the opposition and President Saleh) in Yemen (in 2011 and 2012), and the announcement of new social spending and anti- corruption measures within the kingdom (March 2011), all revealed Riyadh’s nervousness regarding regional flare-ups. Concerning Lebanon, the fall of Saad Hariri’s government surprised Saudi officials.
    [Show full text]
  • English Version
    Be whoever you want to be. But also let others CONTENTS be whoever they want to be. By respecting others, don’t you expect them to respect your THE PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE choices? Isn’t life, with its burdens and changes, nothing but a succession of choices? The more we try, the richer we become. The harder we work, the more we go forward. The more our opinions converge and diverge, the more we build our common redemption. Being what you want to be is your right. And it is also your right to draw to your side ACADEMIC AFFAIRS anybody else, but not by any means… and above all not by Machiavellian means. 3 Visit to USA and Canada See yourself in the other; the black bull knew 5 Mr. Amine Moussa of NDU: Success at Arab his turn was coming when he saw the white Conference on Information Technology,Tunisia bull killed by the lion. 6 IEEE Lebanon: Dr. Elias Nassar elected Chairman Editorial Staff 7 Common Platforms for Bridging Cultures – Panel Discussion April 2009 | issue 45 NDU Spirit A periodical about ACADEMIC AND STUDENT ACTIVITIES campus life at Notre Dame University - Louaïze. ALUMNI ASSOCIATION 8 Alumni Awards 2008 WEERC 13 2nd Beirut Water Week Telefax: (09) 214205 LERC Email: [email protected] 17 German Government: LERC Affiliate’s Paper www.ndu.edu.lb/newsandevents/nduspirit 17 IF and LIBC Officials’ Visit 18 Visiting Malta Professor 18 Japanese Scholars Visit LERC 19 Prominent Nigerian Artist Invited 20 LERC Agreement with Relief International FAAD | Editor-in-Chief 21 Said Akl Award Georges Mghames 22 FAAD Exhibition – Fay Kazzi FBA&E | English Editor 26 Sustainable Tourism Exhibition Kenneth Mortimer FE 27 Students Test Nahr El Kalb Water Quality | Reporting 28 ESRI Award for Bernadette Dabbak Ghada Mouawad FH | Arabic Typing (For Dr.
    [Show full text]
  • Commentaries
    Commentaries Can Lebanon Be Saved? Only if Citizens Reinvent Their Society and Avoid a New Civil War Joseph A. Kéchichian Ugly sectarianism returned to Lebanon in early June after the wounding of dozens of protesters who were demanding basic rights, meaningful political and economic reforms, and full-scale accountability in a country where successive leaders had failed to tackle any problem, no matter how trivial. For at least three decades, if not longer, Lebanese politicians routinely vandalized the land, tolerated the rise of a militia that threatened citizens, and demanded that those who were not satisfied emigrate on a more or less permanent basis. The future was bleak, with few prospects for meaningful political or socioeconomic reform. What was the message that Hizballah and Amal, the two leading Shi‘ah parties, wished to telegraph to the rest of Lebanon’s population after the June 6, 2020, protests? Were the Shi‘ah marchers, who flew Hizballah and Amal Movement flags and chanted “Shi‘ah, Shi‘ah, Shi‘ah” in what was a cry of defiance, anxious to topple the constitution? Why were security forces, whose riot units fired teargas at Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut and in Ayn al-Rimanih, a troubled section of the capital city where the 1975–1990 war had started, selective in their responses to confront demonstrators? Was Lebanon on the verge of a new civil war, and were there peaceful alternatives to either reinventing Lebanese society or, according to a scenario that was not far-fetched, were Sunni Muslims and Christians being invited to emigrate at their earliest opportunity, as various social media outlets invited them to? A New Civil War? Lebanon’s current socioeconomic ordeals, which arose from a combination of poor representation, corruption, and economic stagnation, started long before the October 17, 2019, uprisings that shook the Can Lebanon Be Saved? Commentaries Only if Citizens Reinvent Their Society and Avoid a New Civil War 1 ruling establishment.
    [Show full text]
  • Beyond Spillover: Syria's Role in Lebanon's Drift Toward Political
    IDEAS. INFLUENCE. IMPACT. IssueBRIEF Faysal Itani RafiK Hariri Center FOR the Middle East Sarah Grebowski Beyond Spillover: Syria’s Role in Lebanon’s Drift Toward Political Violence To describe the increase in violence and instability in Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Lebanon since the civil war in Syria began as simply a spillover is misleading. It risks casting Lebanon as a victim The Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic to negative externalities divorced from its own political Council studies political transitions and economic dysfunction. In truth, Lebanon’s troubles long preceded the conditions in Arab countries and recommends US and war in Syria, and the conflict’s more complex and pernicious European policies to encourage constructive change. effect on Lebanon has been the exposure and deepening of pre-existing rifts among Lebanese. Over the past decade, Lebanon’s major political blocs have Until the Syrian crisis, tensions among the Lebanese were coalesced around a growing Sunni-Shia divide, with Christian checked by the strong foreign backing for and overwhelming groups dividing their support for the two Muslim sects and military superiority of one faction, Hezbollah, and its the Druze minority playing a key balancing role between opponents’ inability to address this imbalance. The Syrian them. The blocs are further defined by their positions regime’s troubles have forced Lebanese factions to revise on Syrian involvement in Lebanon and, more recently, their political calculations, raising their stakes in Lebanon’s allegiances in Syria’s current conflict. As Lebanon’s most long-running conflict between Sunni and Shia factions and powerful Shia party and leader of the Syria-backed March 8 hastening the country’s drift toward political violence.
    [Show full text]
  • Political Party Mapping in Lebanon Ahead of the 2018 Elections
    Political Party Mapping in Lebanon Ahead of the 2018 Elections Foreword This study on the political party mapping in Lebanon ahead of the 2018 elections includes a survey of most Lebanese political parties; especially those that currently have or previously had parliamentary or government representation, with the exception of Lebanese Communist Party, Islamic Unification Movement, Union of Working People’s Forces, since they either have candidates for elections or had previously had candidates for elections before the final list was out from the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities. The first part includes a systematic presentation of 27 political parties, organizations or movements, showing their official name, logo, establishment, leader, leading committee, regional and local alliances and relations, their stance on the electoral law and their most prominent candidates for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The second part provides the distribution of partisan and political powers over the 15 electoral districts set in the law governing the elections of May 6, 2018. It also offers basic information related to each district: the number of voters, the expected participation rate, the electoral quotient, the candidate’s ceiling on election expenditure, in addition to an analytical overview of the 2005 and 2009 elections, their results and alliances. The distribution of parties for 2018 is based on the research team’s analysis and estimates from different sources. 2 Table of Contents Page Introduction .......................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Parliamentary Election Law
    issue number 161 |December 2015 Lebanon’s BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADIEU, SURPLUS! SINGLEHOOD OF LEBANESE POLITICIANS DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDEPENDENT MUNICIPAL FUND REVENUES www.monthlymagazine.com • Published by Information International sal PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION LAW PLURALIST, PROPORTIONAL OR A BLEND OF BOTH? Lebanon 5,000LL | Saudi Arabia 15SR | UAE 15DHR | Jordan 2JD| Syria 75SYP | Iraq 3,500IQD | Kuwait 1.5KD | Qatar 15QR | Bahrain 2BD | Oman 2OR | Yemen 15YRI | Egypt 10EP | Europe 5Euros December INDEX 2015 5 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION LAW: PLURALIST, PROPORTIONAL OR A BLEND OF BOTH? 18 RELATIONS BY MARRIAGE WITHIN THE POLITICAL CLASS: RECONCILIATIONS, ALLIANCES AND HOSTILITIES 22 SINGLEHOOD OF LEBANESE POLITICIANS: FIVE PRESIDENTS, ELEVEN MINISTERS AND THIRTEEN MPS 28 WATER CUT OFF FROM THE GRAND SERAIL: LBP 175 MILLION FOR A WATER WELL 29 VAT REVENUES: LBP 35,000 BILLION 30 MUNICIPAL AND IKHTIYARIAH COUNCILS: P: 5 BETWEEN ELECTIONS AND EXTENSION OF TERM 32 DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDEPENDENT MUNICIPAL FUND REVENUES 34 Lebanon’s BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 36 USD 205 MILLION FOR TÉLÉ LIBANT 37 RED DIESEL SUBSIDIES: LBP 22.5 BILLION SQUANDERED 38 LBP 3.6 BILLION FOR THE MEETING VENUE OF A NON-CONVENING CABINET 39 SOLIDERE STOCK PRICE: P: 28 FrOM USD 40 TO USD 9 41 FUNDS IN LEBANESE BANKS: USD 152 BILLION 43 YOUSSEF GEBRAN (1921-1999) 44 LEBANON FAMILIES: THE AL-DOBBS AND AL- DABDOUBS 45 DISCOVER LEBANON: WADI BAANQOUDAIN 46 OCTOBER 2015 HIGHLIGHTS 50 DID YOU KNOW THAT?: EBOLA OUTBREAK IN WEST AFRICA 50 RAFIC HARIRI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TRAFFIC - P: 37 SEPTEMBER 2015 51 lebanon’s stATS |EDITORIAL PIONEERING LEBANESE ARTISTS BY MOSTAFA FARROUKH “In a lecture published in the September issue 1947 of Les Conférences du Cénacle, Beirut-born painter Mostafa Farroukh (1901-1957) traces history of art in Lebanon from its birth, elaborating on the interaction between artists and their environment and the importance of government involvement in promoting art as a fundamental tool to educate the masses and chasten the public taste.
    [Show full text]
  • Khazai and Hess
    THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES Enemy Brothers: Conflict, Cooperation, and Communal Dynamics within Lebanon Sam Khazai and William J. Hess May 2013 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY © Of William J. Hess and Sam Khazai, 2013 Hess and Khazai Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Overview of Lebanese Political History .......................................................................................................... 7 International Relations of Lebanon: A Two-level Game ....................................................................... 14 Syria’s Uprising and the Multi-Level Response ........................................................................................ 21 Lebanon’s Official State Response: Disassociation, Not Condemnation ......................................... 24 Hezbollah ............................................................................................................................................................. 25 Amal Movement ................................................................................................................................................ 31 Free Patriotic Movement/Aounists .......................................................................................................... 35 The Progressive
    [Show full text]