Political Leadership in Lebanon and the Jumblatt Phenomenon: Tipping the Scales of Lebanese Politics Sebastian Gerlach
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SAIS EUROPE JOURNAL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS Political Leadership in Lebanon and the Jumblatt Phenomenon: Tipping the Scales of Lebanese Politics Sebastian Gerlach For observers and scholars of contemporary Lebanese politics, an understanding of Lebanon’s complex political dynamics is hardly possible without a thorough analysis of the role of Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the country’s Druze community. Notwithstanding his sect’s marginal size, Jumblatt has for almost four decades greatly determined the course of domestic developments. Particularly between 2000 and 2013, the Druze leader developed into a local kingmaker through his repeated switch in affiliations between Lebanon’s pro- and anti-Syrian coalitions. This study argues that Jumblatt’s political behavior during this important period in recent Lebanese history was driven by his determination to ensure the political survival of his Druze minority community. Moreover, it highlights that Jumblatt’s ongoing command over the community, which appears to be impressive given his frequent political realignments, stems from his position as the dominating, traditional Druze za’im and because the minority community recognized his political maneuvering as the best mean to provide the Druze with relevance in Lebanon’s political arena. 84 VOLUME 20 INTRODUCTION who failed to preserve their follower- ship after altering their political ori- For observers and scholars of con- 2 temporary Lebanese politics, a thor- entation. In this respect, it is even ough understanding of the country’s more puzzling that Jumblatt was able complex political dynamics is hardly to maintain the support of his Druze possible without analyzing the role of community, known for its nega- Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Leba- tive attitudes towards the prominent non’s Druze community. Indeed, Jum- Shi’ite- March-8 member Hezbollah, blatt has, despite the marginal size when reconciling with the pro-Syrian of his sect, for almost four decades forces in 2009 and enabling the estab- played a pivotal role in the political lishment of a pro-Syrian government arena of Lebanon. Widely considered in 2011. the kingmaker in Lebanese politics,1 Yet academia has so far paid little Jumblatt particularly influenced the attention to the Druze za’im (lead- course of domestic politics between er) and his maneuvering in Leba- 2000 and 2013 by repeatedly switch- nese politics. While some scholars ing affiliations between the opposing have published narrative accounts of pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian coalitions Jumblatt’s personal background and in Lebanon. More precisely, Jum- environment,3 analytical work on his blatt went from a being a close ally of political actions is rare and perspec- the Syrian regime during the 1990s tives on his leadership patterns are to the figurehead of the anti-Syrian practically non-existent.4 This pa- March-14 movement following the per offers a contribution to both the assassination of late Prime Minister studies of Walid Jumblatt and broader Rafik Hariri in February 2005. There- contemporary Lebanese politics. Ex- after, in 2009, he unexpectedly recon- amining the greater period from 2000 ciled with Damascus and enabled the until 2013, and particularly Jumblatt’s formation of a pro-Syrian government reconciliation with the pro-Syrian in 2011. In 2013, he changed camps camp in 2009, it seeks to understand yet again and ever since has been a vo- why Jumblatt repeatedly switched cal critic of the Assad regime and its affiliations between the opposing allies in Lebanon. pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian coalitions. Considering the pro-Syrian and Moreover, it aims to identify how the anti-Syrian camps’ fundamental dif- Druze chieftain was able to maintain ferences in outlook regarding the fu- political legitimacy among his Druze ture of Lebanon, it stands out that followers while doing so. the Druze sect, Jumblatt’s sole power The argument of this analysis is base, obediently followed his political twofold. First, it is contended that U-turns. This may seem surprising, Walid Jumblatt’s decisions to change because Lebanon’s history abounds political camps were informed by his with political and communal leaders determination to ensure the political 85 SAIS EUROPE JOURNAL OF GLOBAL AFFAIRS survival of his Druze minority com- blatt’s leadership style during the pe- munity. Second, the Druze followed riod of 2000 until 2013. Lastly, it will Jumblatt both due to his command conclude with a prognosis concerning over the community as the domi- Jumblatt’s possible future political nating, traditional Druze za’im and maneuvering, particularly in terms of because they recognized his political adapting to changing conditions in maneuvering as the best mean to pro- neighboring Syria. vide the minority community with relevance in Lebanon’s political arena. A DIVIDED NATION: LEBANON’S CON- TEMPORARY HISTORY AND POLITICS This analysis has two central im- plications that are important for the Modern Lebanon and its con- studies of Lebanese politics. As a troversial sectarian political system contribution to understanding Walid stem from the reorganization of the Jumblatt and his leadership, it helps Middle East after World War I. As to comprehend the unparalleled role part of the French Mandate for Syr- the Druze za’im has played in Leb- ia and the Lebanon, the Lebanese anon’s political arena for almost four nation came into being as an artifi- decades. Accordingly, the analysis of cial political entity carved out of the this paper may also help predict future Levantine region. Eager to apply di- vide-and-rule politics in order to fa- developments in Lebanese politics, 6 with particular reference to the Druze cilitate control over its dominion, the community. Moreover, following up French mandate conceived Lebanon on the observation of Marvan Ro- as a multi-sectarian nation and im- wayheb, that “there are few good an- plemented a confessional political and alytical studies on individual political bureaucratic system designed to give 5 each of Lebanon’s sects a proportional leaders in Lebanon,” this analysis is 7 a contribution to understanding lead- share of influence in the new state. ership in Lebanese politics in general. However, in a bid to favor its longtime Hence, it adds to the comprehension regional protégés, France ensured dis- of the political culture of a country proportionate Christian control over whose politics are largely shaped by the state at the expense of all other individual political figures. confessions. In so doing, French pol- icies not only institutionalized segre- This paper proceeds in four main gation between Lebanon’s sects and parts. It will begin by briefly sketching established a political structure that defining characteristics of Lebanon’s was inherently divisive, but also cre- history and politics. Next, it will con- ated a highly uneven power balance duct a synopsis on the Druze sect in which marginalized major communi- Lebanon until the Lebanese civil war ties within the nascent state.8 and provide an overview on Walid Jumblatt’s early years as Druze za’im. The flawed sectarian system in- Then, the paper will analyze Jum- duced critical tensions among the 86 VOLUME 20 Lebanese and eventually plunged the cal system,11 the Lebanese were not country into a vicious civil war in the able to truly determine their own fate 1970s and 1980s. After gaining inde- following the war. Rather, Syrian oc- pendence in 1943, the Lebanese po- cupation turned the country into a litical establishment agreed on main- de-facto protectorate. Masterminding taining the French-imposed sectarian Lebanon’s domestic politics, Damas- state.9 However, domestic and region- cus began to brutally suppress any al developments of the 1950s and opposition to its rule but also allowed 1960s, including a growing Muslim handpicked allies, most importantly population and the influx of Palestin- the Shi’ite parties Amal and Hezbol- ians into Lebanon, put an increasing lah, Sunni leader Rafik Hariri, and strain on the confessional system and Druze Walid Jumblatt, to extend their weakened the Lebanese state. As a re- power bases and profit from the re- sult, mounting sectarian tensions es- construction of Lebanon.12 calated and led to the outbreak of a 15 However, in 2005, Syria was year-long civil war in 1975. While this forced to withdraw from Lebanon. In conflict was, from a domestic perspec- the early 2000s, domestic resistance tive, predominantly characterized by to Syrian influence gained momen- Christian-Muslim competition over tum as the new Syrian ruler, Bashar control of the state, it was also marked al-Assad, began to alienate Rafik by Lebanon’s emergence as a primary Hariri and Walid Jumblatt. At the décor for regional power politics. In same time, mostly due to U.S. foreign particular, the country’s rival neigh- policy changes, international pressure boring states of Israel and Syria faced on Damascus to terminate control off against each other in the Lebanese over Lebanese politics intensified. arena and supporting opposing Leba- In February 2005, tensions escalat- nese factions intervened heavily in the ed when then-Prime Minister Rafik conflict. Over the course of the war, Hariri was assassinated in a bombing the Israel-supported Christian war- allegedly orchestrated by the Syrian ring parties were increasingly put on regime. Consequentially, following the defensive whilst Syria and its local massive popular demonstrations, Syr- allies, first and foremost the Lebanese ia was pressured to withdraw from Shi’ites, gradually