Siyaset ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Journal of Politics and International Relations RTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Cilt Volume 6 • Sayı Number 2 • Ocak January 2015 • Syria’s Firestorm: Where from? Where to? William Harris • Hizballah’s Resilience During the Arab Uprisings Joseph Alagha Implications of the Arab Spring for Iran’s Policy towards the • Middle East Bayram Sinkaya Implications of the Arab Uprisings on the Islamist Movement: • Lessons from Ikhwan in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan Nur Köprülü European Powers and the Naissance of Weak States in the • Arab Middle East After World War I 2 • Ocak Gudrun Harrer Unpredictable Power Broker: Russia’s Role in Iran’s Nuclear • Capability Development Muhammet Fatih Özkan & Gürol Baba • Israel and the Gas Resources of the Levant Basin A. Murat Ağdemir 6 • Sayı İranlı Kadınların Hatıratlarında İran-Irak Savaşı: Seyyide • Fiyatı: 12 TL Zehra Hoseyni’nin Da’sını Yorumlamak Metin Yüksel BOOK REVIEWS • The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World ORSAM Rümeysa Eldoğan ISSN: 1309-1557 ORSAM ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STRATEGIC STUDIES ORTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Siyaset ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Journal of Politics and International Relations Ocak 2015, Cilt 6, Sayı 2 / January 2015, Volume 6, No 2 www.orsam.org.tr Hakemli Dergi / Refereed Journal Yılda iki kez yayımlanır / Published biannualy Sahibi / Owner: Şaban KARDAŞ, TOPAZ A.Ş. adına / on behalf of TOPAZ A.Ş. Editör / Editor-in-Chief: Özlem TÜR Yardımcı Editör/ Associate Editor: Ali Balcı Kitap Eleştirisi Editörü/ Book Review Editor: Gülriz Şen Yönetici Editör / Managing Editör: Tamer KOPARAN Sorumlu Yazı İşleri Müdürü / Managing Coordinator: Habib HÜRMÜZLÜ YAYIN KURULU / EDITORIAL BOARD Meliha Altunışık Middle East Technical University İlker Aytürk Bilkent Universitesi Recep Boztemur Middle East Technical University Katerina Dalacoura London School of Economics F. Gregory Gause Vermont University Fawaz Gerges London School of Economics Mahmoud Hamad Drake University/ Cairo University Raymond Hinnebusch St. Andrews University Tim Jacoby Manchester University Akif Kireçci Bilkent Universitesi Bahgat Korany American University of Cairo Peter Mandaville George Mason University Emma Murphy Durham University Harun Öztürkler Kırıkkale Universitesi Ortadoğu Etütleri şu indeksler tarafından taranmaktadır / indexed by; Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), EBSCO Host, Index Islamicus, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBBS), Worldwide Political Science Abstracts (WPSA). Makale Önerileri İçin / Submitting Your Articles: Özlem Tür / [email protected] Yayın İdare Merkezi / Head Office: ORSAM Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi - Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies Süleyman Nazif Sokak No: 12-B Kat: 3-4 Çankaya-Ankara Türkiye/Turkey Tel: +90 (312) 430 26 09 Fax: +90 (312) 430 39 48 [email protected] Tasarım Uygulama / Graphic Design Orient Basım Yayın Kazım Özalp Mah. Rabat Sok. No:27/2 GOP, Çankaya/ANKARA Tel: 0 (312) 431 21 55 Baskı / Printing Center Salmat Basım Basım Tarihi / Printed: 15 Ocak / January 2015 Ulusal Süreli Yayın Ortadoğu Etütleri’ndeki makalelerde yer alan fikirler yalnızca yazarlarını bağlamaktadır. The views expressed in Ortadogu Etütleri (Middle Eastern Studies) bind exclusively their authors. RTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ ORTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ / MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES OCAK 2015, Cilt 6, Sayı 2 / JANUARY 2015, Volume 6, No 2 CONTENTS / İÇİNDEKİLER Syria’s Firestorm: Where from? Where to?................................................... 8 Suriye’nin Ateş Fırtınası: Nereden, Nereye? William Harris Hizballah’s Resilience During the Arab Uprisings........................................ 28 Arap İsyanları Sırasında Hizbullah’ın Direnci Joseph Alagha Implications of the Arab Spring for Iran’s Policy towards the Middle East..... 54 Arap Baharı’nın İran’ın Ortadoğu Politikasına Etkileri Bayram Sinkaya Implications of the Arab Uprisings on the Islamist Movement: Lessons from Ikhwan in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan............................................................ 80 Arap Ayaklanmalarının İslami Hareket Üzerindeki Etkileri: Tunus, Mısır ve Ürdün İhvan’ından Dersler Nur Köprülü European Powers and the Naissance of Weak States in the Arab Middle East After World War I......................................................................................... 96 Avrupa Güçleri ve I. Dünya Savaşı Sonrasında Arap Ortadoğusunda Zayıf Devletlerin Doğuşu Gudrun Harrer Unpredictable Power Broker: Russia’s Role in Iran’s Nuclear Capability Development................................................................................................ 112 Öngörülemeyen Güç Simsarı: İran’ın Nükleer Kapasite Geliştirmesinde Rusya’nın Rolü Muhammet Fatih Özkan & Gürol Baba Israel and the Gas Resources of the Levant Basin.......................................... 136 İsrail ve Levant Havzasının Gaz Kaynakları A. Murat Ağdemir İranlı Kadınların Hatıratlarında İran-Irak Savaşı: Seyyide Zehra Hoseyni’nin Da’sını Yorumlamak......................................................................................156 The Iran-Iraq War in Iranian Women’s Memoirs: Reading Seyyedeh Zahra Hosseini’s Da. Metin Yüksel Book Reviews / Kitap İnceleme The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World.................175 Rümeysa Eldoğan From the Editor Ortadoğu Etütleri in its January 2015 issue, brings together eight articles and a book review. Like the previous issues, this issue starts with an article analysing the ongoing conflict in Syria. William Harris, in his article titledSyria’s Firestorm – Where From? Where To? points out the limitations of conflict resolution approaches and calls for a political solution in the Syrian conflict and presents us with the idea that a military solution can be the only way out of this crisis. By looking at the sources, characteristics and the trajectory of the conflict, the author pays a spe- cial attention to Russian, US, Iranian and the Turkish roles in the development of the crisis and by integrating the domestic and the external dynamics assesses the future trajectory of the Syrian conflict. Joseph Alagha in his article titled Hizballah’s Resilience During the Arab Uprisings looks at length to the historical evolution of Hizballah and the transformation it went through in the past three decades. The author discusses Hizballah’s role in the Syrian conflict – its active fighting in Syria. By integrating the speeches of Nasrallah and other Lebanese actors involved to his analysis, Alagha looks not only at Hizballah’s role but also the spill-over effects of the Syrian conflict in Lebanon. In the third article of this issue, Implications of the Arab Spring for Iran’s Policy Towards the Middle East, Bayram Sinkaya analyses how the Arab Spring made an impact on Iran’s Middle East policy. Arguing that the changes in the evolution of the Arab Uprisings makes it difficult to talk about one Iranian policy, the author looks at the change from an initial optimism to a growing anxiety. The article examines how the coming to power of Rouhani in 2013 has brought a moderate approach to Iranian foreign policy, made the nuclear issue and relations with the US a policy-priority, led to closer relations with the Gulf countries and yet how this moderation and the “constructive engagement” remains short when it comes to the Syrian conflict. In the article titled, Implications of the Arab Uprisings on the Islamist Movement: Lessons from Ikhwan in Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan, Nur Köprülü argues that it is difficult to generalize the effects of the Uprisings on the Muslim Brotherhood in the region and calls for a case-by case analysis. The author questions Jillian Schwedler’s argument regarding the linkage between inclusion into politics and moderation of movements and argues that Ikhwan is in general moderate and 5 January 2015 can be effective in keeping the more radical and salafist groups from finding a support base in these three countries –Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan. Gudrun Harrer in European Powers and the Naissance of weak States in the Arab Mid- dle East After World War I, analyzes in details the post-World War 1 era and the legacy of the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Challenging the argument that Sykes-Picot and the artificial borders it created are the reason of the problems of the Middle East both in terms of the content and implementation of this agreement, the author ar- gues how this idea is dominant in the region. Putting the emphasis and the blame on the changing policies of the British and the French after the World War, the author relates her arguments to the offer of the Islamic State (Daesh) today in the Middle East. Muhammet Fatih Özkan and Gürol Baba, in their article, Unpredictable Power Bro- ker: Russia’s Role in Iran’s Nuclear Capability Development, put the mediation ap- proaches to at the core of their analysis. The article argues that Russia had been a part of Iran’s nuclear capability development, yet its position against the possibility of Iran acquiring military grade nuclear technology makes it a “very suitable mediator” in the process. The authors argue how Russia, as a Great Power utilizes mediation as a means of influence and dominates an international dispute rather than solving it. In his article titled, The Iran-Iraq War in Iranian Women’s Memoirs: Reading Seyye- deh Zahra Hosseini’s Da, Metin Yüksel critically examines a woman’s memoirs,on the Iran-Iraq War. The work calledDa ,