Essays on Labor Mobility
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Essays on Labor Mobility by Parag Mahajan A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Public Policy and Economics) in The University of Michigan 2020 Doctoral Committee: Professor John Bound, Co-Chair Professor Dean Yang, Co-Chair Professor Hoyt Bleakley Professor Jagadeesh Sivadasan Professor Jeffrey A. Smith Parag Mahajan [email protected] ORCID ID 0000-0002-2020-1964 © Parag Mahajan 2020 For Roop and Kavita ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, this dissertation would not be possible without the advising from my dissertation committee: John Bound, Dean Yang, Jeff Smith, Hoyt Bleakley, and Jagadeesh Sivadasan. Each committee member has helped me grow as a researcher, professional academic, and adult during my time at Michigan. My committee let me do my thing and let me do it my way. Yet, they always showed up when I needed them to steer me in the right direction. John has been singularly instrumental in helping me hone and improve my research, particularly Chapter 1. I knew I had something once John was on board. There were times when he was the only person who really understood what I was trying to do, and there were times when he was the only one who could save me from what I was trying to do. I will miss our meetings dearly and thank him for his invaluable advising. Dean has been a constant source of help and advice throughout graduate school. He managed to make me feel like a peer, even as he taught me how to cut through the noise and write a good paper. I thank him for his trust and for everything I have learned from him over the last six years. Jeff's confidence in me has given me confidence in myself since my second year in graduate school. He has been selfless with his time and engagement in advising my work. I cannot thank him enough for agreeing to stay on my committee as an Ann Arbor ex-pat and hosting me in Madison to boot. I have connected with Hoyt as a student, mentee, co-author, and friend over the last six years. I thank him for always pushing me to think about the most interesting question rather than the question that is easiest to answer, and for his sense of humor in the moments when we have exhausted our brains trying to answer it. Jagadeesh was magnanimous in helping me with data access and generous with his time as an advisor, guiding me through concepts in trade despite my lack of formal training. I thank him for all of his help. I also have to thank Ron Caldwell and Jeff Wenger. Ron made teaching easy, fun, and one of the best parts of my experience as a graduate student. No matter what he says, as far as Dream Teams go, I'd rather be Christian Laettner than Isiah Thomas. I could not have asked for more from a summer internship than what I got at RAND, and that was all thanks to Jeff. I cannot thank him enough for our work together his mentorship since. iii Building friendships and professional relationships with my peers has been the most rewarding part of graduate school. I want to thank Chapter 2's co-author, Dhiren Patki, for always keeping my eyes on the prize (as opposed to robustness check #23). I hope this is the start of many joint ventures. I would not have passed prelims, let alone survived the job market, without Dhiren, Ari Binder and Max Risch providing levity and expertise at every step. Jessica Gillooly has been a sounding board, occasional writing tutor, and unwavering ally for seven years. I have also benefited greatly from my friendships with Evan Taylor, (unofficial committee member) Bryan Stuart, Max Gross, Anirudh Jayanti, Meera Mahadevan, Ben Lipsius, Jamie Fogel, Shuqiao Sun, and countless others. In addition, Michigan's research community|particularly the Labor Economics group|played a large role in my development. Thanks to Charlie Brown, Mel Stephens, and Gabor Kezdi for their instruction, and to all the faculty who were regulars at the Labor Lunch. They treated us all like advisees and always provided useful feedback, regardless of whether our projects were \ready for prime time." I also want to thank colleagues at various seminars throughout Michigan and across the country for their comments and suggestions on my work. Mim Jones, Kathryn Cardenas, Julie Heintz, and Laura Flak all helped build support systems that made sure I never got off track. Finally, I want to thank Joelle Abramowitz and Clint Carter for putting up with my demanding use of the Census RDC. I would be remiss (and a criminal) if I did not say, \any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed." Completing a dissertation requires inspiration and music. Regarding the former, I want to thank Lebron James. Regarding the latter, I want to thank the creators of the \All-Nighter," \Lo-Fi Beats," and \Brain Food" playlists on Spotify, Above and Beyond for their weekly \Group Therapy" radio show, and Future. This dissertation was a labor of love to my family. Thank you to my sisters for their support throughout this process and for inspiring me with their unwavering pursuit of improving others' lives. Nothing would be possible without my parents, who traveled half way across the world so that the three of us could pursue our dreams. Living up to this lofty standard has been a blessing, not a burden. Their pride reassures me that the sweat poured into this document was worth it. Finally, and most importantly, I thank my wife Jarcy. She is the smartest, kindest, and steadiest person I know, and I needed every drop of these qualities over the last seven years. There is no dissertation without her, and I hope I can return some small portion of the love she has provided me with as we move on to the next phase of our partnership. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: iii LIST OF FIGURES ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: viii LIST OF TABLES :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: x LIST OF APPENDICES :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: xii ABSTRACT ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: xiii CHAPTER I. Immigration and Local Business Dynamics: Evidence from U.S. Firms .......................................1 1.1 Introduction...............................1 1.2 Related Literature............................3 1.3 Immigration, Firms, and Local Labor Markets............6 1.3.1 Evidence from Case Studies.................6 1.3.2 A Broader View: Data and Sample............. 13 1.3.3 A Broader View: Identification................ 15 1.3.4 Immigrant Workers and Firm Presence: a More Complete Accounting........................... 20 1.3.5 Immigrant Absorption.................... 26 1.4 The Exit Margin............................. 28 1.4.1 Full Panel: Data and Methods................ 29 1.4.2 Full Panel: Results...................... 30 1.4.3 SBO Panel: Data and Methods............... 31 1.4.4 SBO Panel: Results...................... 32 1.4.5 Summary and Discussion................... 33 1.5 Synthesis Through Theory....................... 34 1.5.1 Motivation........................... 34 1.5.2 Setup.............................. 35 v 1.5.3 Equilibrium Definition.................... 38 1.5.4 Equilibrium.......................... 39 1.5.5 Simulations.......................... 40 1.5.6 Discussion........................... 42 1.6 Conclusion................................ 42 II. Bad Times, Bad Jobs? How Recessions Affect Early Career Trajectories 68 2.1 Introduction............................... 68 2.2 Theoretical Framework......................... 71 2.2.1 Setup.............................. 71 2.2.2 Wage determination...................... 72 2.2.3 Effect of cyclical shocks.................... 73 2.3 Data and Construction of Key Variables................ 74 2.3.1 Wage Decomposition..................... 75 2.3.2 Estimating Establishment Values.............. 75 2.3.3 Decomposing Establishment Fixed Effects into Rents and Compensating Differentials.................. 77 2.3.4 Occupation-Specific Unemployment Rates.......... 79 2.3.5 Sample Construction..................... 80 2.4 Identification............................... 81 2.5 Effect of Cyclical Shocks on Pecuniary and Non-Pecuniary Outcomes 83 2.5.1 Primary Results........................ 83 2.5.2 Career Paths of \Lucky" and \Unlucky" Cohorts...... 84 2.5.3 Decomposition of Recession-Induced Losses......... 85 2.5.4 Mechanism 1: Heterogeneity in Job Creation Over the Cycle 86 2.5.5 Mechanism 2: Displacement-Induced Human Capital Mismatch 87 2.5.6 Robustness Checks...................... 87 2.6 Discussion and Conclusion........................ 89 III. Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and U.S. Immigration105 3.1 Conceptual Matters........................... 110 3.2 Immigration Policy During the Sample Frame............. 111 3.3 Data.................................... 112 3.3.1 Sample Definition....................... 112 3.3.2 Hurricane Index........................ 113 3.3.3 Immigrants in the United States: Stocks and Inflows.... 114 3.4 Analysis.................................. 116 3.4.1 Specification.......................... 116 3.4.2 Results............................. 117 3.4.3 Robustness and Mechanisms................. 121 3.4.4 Migration demand vs. migration \supply"......... 122 3.4.5 The Role of Restricted-Access Census Data and of Small Countries............................ 123 vi 3.5 Conclusion................................ 125 APPENDICES ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::