2014 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for local areas – Part 2

Purpose of this brief

1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2014 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow- up to an earlier report detailing county level trends discussed at IPG in August 2015.

2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the five strategic partnership areas to show long term sub-county trends.

3. Figures and charts for other geographies such as Clinical Commissioning Groups/Localities, Area Action Partnerships and Middle Super Output Areas (MSOAs) will be made available on the intranet along with a maps showing total population change by MSOA between 2001 and 2014.

Summary of Key Messages

4. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by positive net migration (+24,222 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was marginally negative (-138 people) during this period.

5. All five partnership areas have seen an increase in population with the largest growth in the Central Durham (9.4%) and North Durham (6.6%) areas. Growth in East Durham (1.2%), The Dales (2.9%) and South Durham (3.1%) has been relatively low with low net migration and natural change in East Durham while The Dales area had high negative natural change between 2001 and 2014 (1,550 more deaths than births).

6. All five areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall over the last 14 years with the largest falls in East Durham (2,146 fewer children, -11.0%) and The Dales (719 fewer children, -13.0%).

7. Most areas have seen small increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001 though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2012. The Dales partnership area now has fewer working age people that it did in 2001, a fall of 2.2% equivalent to 447 people.

8. Four partnership areas (excluding East Durham) have seen large increases, of between 20% and 34% in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest proportional increase has been in The Dales (+33.6% - partly due to smaller numbers an increase from 6,222 in 2001 to 8,314 in 2014). There has been some growth in East Durham with an increase of 10.8% since 2001.

9. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the largest in Central Durham (44.2%) and South Durham (41.1%).

10. At a more local level, just over a third (23) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced a decline in overall population between 2001 and 2014. 11. Local areas in central Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest increase in number between 2001 and 2014 of 2,800 people. However, the Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest percentage increase of 31.1%, (an increase of 2,600 people). These increases are primarily due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas.

12. The largest decreases in population were in both the Horden (MSOA E02004327) and Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) which both fell by 700 people during this period, falls of 10.2% and 9.1% respectively. The decrease in Horden was due to negative natural change and high outward migration while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area.

Population change by Strategic Partnership Area 13. All five partnership areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1.

Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by partnership area.

110% Central Durham

108% North Durham

County Durham 106%

South Durham 104% The Dales

102% East Durham

100% 2001 Base

98%

2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014

14. The majority of growth has been in the Central and North Durham areas with increases of 9.4% and 6.6% respectively with East Durham showing the lowest increase of 1.2% over the same period and recent growth being static since 2009.

15. This growth can mainly be attributed to positive net migration as overall numbers for natural change, (live births minus deaths), were low on average between 2001 and 2014. Only ‘The Dales’ partnership area had a fall in natural change during this period of 1,550 due to a higher numbers of deaths (5,048) compared to births (3,498) aggregated over the this period. This is due to the age structure in the area which has a higher proportion of older people compared to young people than the other areas of the county.

16. Demographic structure can also explain the growth in the Central Durham area which was entirely due to positive net migration as net natural change was almost zero (the difference between births and deaths was 1) between 2001 Source: NOMIS Source: County Durham Dales The Durham South Durham North East Durham Central Durham Area Central Durham Central County Durham County North Durham North South Durham South 18. Figure 17. Table 1: 2014 2: Figure East Durham East

The Dales The

close second with second a close fall of 11 this in largestdecrease a and since 15 ar All partnership 2014. and Only Dales working areaa has seen in the The (agedfall population age 16 to

3

: change% since 2001 the in by to group 0 15 age Components change population of 2001 to by2014 partnershiparea

2013

Overall change (left) population and change componentsof (right) ; ONS Mid ; ONS

0 100% 102% 104% 2001,

86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% Population in Centralin Durham North and These 517,773 145,197 134,811 109,550 33,140 95,075 2014 2014

- 5,000 Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live live and deaths ONS registered Estimates; Population Year

2001 however decline has seen this sligha

eas have in decline a the seen

differences charts in illustrated are the 2002 10,000

2003 75,427 23,169 20,190 15,306 13,264 Births 2004 3,498 15,000 ge group over this ge over this group period of 2005 %

20,000 2006 since 2001 2007 25,000 Deaths 22,744 19,624 14,886 13,263 75,565

2008 5,048

2009 Durham 30,000-5,000 .

2010

2011

. 0

number ofchildren 0 aged to Change Natural Natural The DalesThe

2012 - 1,550 - 425 566 420 138 2013 1 t reversal 2011t between 5,000

13

partnershiparea

2014 % while and table 10,000

has the seen Migration 24,222 3,934 3,934 7,759 9,388 2,476 2,476 665 TheDales Durham East Durham South Durham County Durham North Durham Central Base 2001 15,000 births 2001 to 2014. to 2001 births East aDurham below.

20,000

2001 to 2001

Population Population

Change

24,084 25,000 4,359 4,359 8,325 1,085 9,389 926

30,000

Migration Change Natural Net 64) since 2001, a fall of 2.2%. Central Durham has had the largest increase in this age group (7.1%) and is in part due to the expansion of Durham University before the 2011 Census.

Figure 4: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by partnership area

108%

Central Durham

106% North Durham

104% County Durham

East Durham 102%

South Durham

100% 2001 Base

98% The Dales

96%

2011 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014

19. As with the county and other areas across the country all five areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with Central Durham and The Dales experiencing the largest growth (33% and 33.6% respectively). However, in The Dales this is in part due to smaller numbers and a tendency for higher proportions of older people to be found in more rural areas.

20. Within East Durham this age group has shown a relatively small change (increase of 10.8%) and follows the pattern of slow population growth in this area since 2001.

Figure 5: % change since 2001 in the 65+ age group by partnership area

Central Durham 133%

128% The Dales

123% North Durham

118% County Durham

113% South Durham

108% East Durham 103% 2001 Base

98%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

21. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic but are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. Central Durham has seen the largest increase with this age group growing by 44.2% since 2001 (from 1,614 people to 2,338). South Durham was a close second with a 41.1% increase, however this area has 3,370 people aged 85 an over, the largest across all five areas.

Figure 6: % change since 2001 in the 85+ age group by partnership area.

Central 142% Durham South Durham

132% County Durham

East Durham 122%

The Dales 112% North Durham

102% 2001 Base

92%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Local Area Population Growth 22. At a more local level, just over a third (23) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced a decline in overall population between 2001 and 2014. (See Map 1 and Figure 9). Local areas in central Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest increase in number between 2001 and 2014 of 2,800 people. However, the Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest percentage increase of 31.1%, (an increase of 2,600 people). These increases are primarily due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas.

Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

23. The largest decreases in population were in both the Horden (MSOA E02004327) and Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) which both fell by 700 people during this period, falls of 10.2% and 9.1% respectively. The decrease in Horden was due to negative natural change and high outward migration while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area.

Figure 7: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2014 by MSOA

Durham City Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Leadgate North and Consett East Delves and Leadgate South St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Murton South and South Hetton Seaham North and Seaton Byers Green and Spennymoor Consett West and Castleside Crook South and Willington North Craghead and South Stanley Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Tow Law Stanley North and Kip Hill Gilesgate Moor Cassop and Coxhoe Bishop Auckland and South Church Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Hutton Henry and Wingate Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Shotton Colliery Sacriston and Waldridge Chester-le-Street North Medomsley and Shotley Bowburn and Shincliffe Hamsterley and Staindrop Sherburn and West Rainton Barnard Castle and Startforth Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Brandon Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Net Natural Stanhope and Wolsingham Newton Aycliffe Central Change Brasside and Newton Hall Lanchester Migration Midridge and Woodham Village Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Annfield Plain South and South Moor Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Bournmoor and Great Lumley Chester-le-Street South Fishburn and Trimdons Pelton and Grange Villa Chilton and Ferryhill Station Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Coundon and Willington South Newton Aycliffe East Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Spernnymoor North and Tudhoe Easington Colliery North Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Belmont and Carville Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Cornforth and Ferryhill Shildon Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Passfield and Shotton Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Bank Blackhalls Horden

Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central

0

0

500

-500

2,000 1,000 3,000 4,000

3,000 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

-2,000 -1,000 -1,000

Contact: John Mitchell Tel: 03000 268032 Appendix 1

Table 2: Population change by partnership area - 2001 to 2014

Number (% change from 2001)

Central North East Durham South Durham The Dales County Durham Durham Durham

2001 100,161 93,990 126,486 140,838 32,214 493,689 2002 99,775 (-0.4) 93,466 (-0.6) 127,103 (0.5) 140,679 (-0.1) 32,515 (0.9) 493,538 (0.0) 2003 99,224 (-0.9) 93,184 (-0.9) 127,572 (0.9) 141,406 (0.4) 32,545 (1.0) 493,931 (0.0) 2004 98,630 (-1.5) 93,145 (-0.9) 128,273 (1.4) 142,398 (1.1) 32,701 (1.5) 495,147 (0.3) 2005 98,959 (-1.2) 93,567 (-0.5) 128,777 (1.8) 143,114 (1.6) 32,801 (1.8) 497,218 (0.7) 2006 100,269 (0.1) 93,785 (-0.2) 129,342 (2.3) 143,074 (1.6) 32,878 (2.1) 499,348 (1.1) 2007 101,765 (1.6) 94,235 (0.3) 130,342 (3.0) 143,728 (2.1) 32,890 (2.1) 502,960 (1.9) 2008 102,804 (2.6) 94,755 (0.8) 131,091 (3.6) 144,023 (2.3) 32,944 (2.3) 505,617 (2.4) 2009 103,189 (3.0) 95,117 (1.2) 131,812 (4.2) 144,067 (2.3) 33,126 (2.8) 507,311 (2.8) 2010 105,416 (5.2) 95,054 (1.1) 132,614 (4.8) 144,314 (2.5) 33,230 (3.2) 510,628 (3.4) 2011 106,627 (6.5) 95,111 (1.2) 133,489 (5.5) 144,710 (2.7) 33,057 (2.6) 512,994 (3.9) 2012 107,272 (7.1) 95,123 (1.2) 134,033 (6.0) 144,837 (2.8) 33,083 (2.7) 514,348 (4.2) 2013 108,978 (8.8) 95,153 (1.2) 134,076 (6.0) 144,798 (2.8) 32,952 (2.3) 515,957 (4.5) 2014 109,550 (9.4) 95,075 (1.2) 134,811 (6.6) 145,197 (3.1) 33,140 (2.9) 517,773 (4.9) Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Table 3: Components of population change 2001 to 2014 by MSOA

MSOA Natural Population MSOA Name Births Deaths Migration Code Change Change E02004290 Beamish Ouston and Urpeth 820 530 290 -570 -280 E02004291 Pelton and Grange Villa 1,195 1,175 20 -57 -37 E02004292 Chester-le-Street North 883 985 -102 546 444 E02004293 Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell 1,461 1,768 -307 536 229 E02004294 Chester-le-Street South 1,033 1,072 -39 12 -27 E02004295 Bournmoor and Great Lumley 1,050 1,041 9 -26 -17 E02004296 Sacriston and Waldridge 1,265 1,004 261 187 448 E02004297 Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie 1,121 1,200 -79 378 299 E02004298 Medomsley and Shotley 1,227 1,497 -270 695 425 E02004299 Stanley North and Kip Hill 1,291 1,387 -96 910 814 E02004300 Annfield Plain North and Dipton South 1,247 1,130 117 133 250 E02004301 Craghead and South Stanley 1,747 1,358 389 639 1,028 E02004302 Annfield Plain South and South Moor 1,400 1,152 248 -186 62 E02004303 Leadgate North and Consett East 1,719 1,796 -77 2,038 1,961 E02004304 Delves and Leadgate South 1,355 1,517 -162 1,796 1,634 E02004305 Consett West and Castleside 1,376 1,012 364 727 1,091 E02004306 Lanchester 652 882 -230 377 147 E02004307 Langley Park Cornsay and Satley 983 1,008 -25 -176 -201 E02004308 Brasside and Newton Hall 713 646 67 135 202 E02004309 Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me 805 936 -131 814 683 E02004310 Bearpark and Witton Gilbert 1,341 939 402 146 548 E02004311 Sherburn and West Rainton 1,471 1,189 282 65 347 E02004312 Belmont and Carville 827 1,078 -251 -39 -290 E02004313 Gilesgate Moor 1,061 794 267 546 813 E02004314 Durham City 235 1,012 -777 3,598 2,821 E02004315 Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross 1,084 898 186 2,390 2,576 E02004316 Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West 941 731 210 49 259 E02004317 Brandon 1,069 1,256 -187 475 288 E02004318 Bowburn and Shincliffe 882 921 -39 432 393 E02004319 Cassop and Coxhoe 1,200 973 227 578 805 E02004320 Seaham North and Seaton 1,210 1,132 78 1,164 1,242 E02004321 Dawdon and Seaham Harbour 1,422 1,461 -39 256 217 E02004322 Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside 1,505 1,649 -144 -150 -294 E02004323 Murton South and South Hetton 1,244 924 320 1,273 1,593 E02004324 Easington Colliery North 954 828 126 -401 -275 E02004325 Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill 1,776 1,715 61 -364 -303 E02004326 Shotton Colliery 1,061 920 141 351 492 E02004327 Horden 1,098 1,239 -141 -548 -689 E02004328 Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central 1,194 810 384 -1,111 -727 E02004329 Passfield and Shotton 853 854 -1 -423 -424 E02004330 Blackhalls 812 1,271 -459 -25 -484 E02004331 Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll 1,102 1,183 -81 146 65 E02004332 Hutton Henry and Wingate 1,075 900 175 505 680 E02004333 Spernnymoor North and Tudhoe 868 846 22 -235 -213 E02004334 Fishburn and Trimdons 1,236 1,069 167 -203 -36 E02004335 Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Bank 1,259 1,056 203 -638 -435 E02004336 Cornforth and Ferryhill 966 1,709 -743 438 -305 E02004337 Byers Green and Spennymoor 1,449 1,294 155 1,050 1,205 E02004338 Chilton and Ferryhill Station 1,233 895 338 -410 -72 E02004339 Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield 895 923 -28 621 593

Table cont..

MSOA Natural Population Code MSOA Name Births Deaths Change Migration Change E02004340 Shildon 1,862 1,901 -39 -296 -335 E02004341 Midridge and Woodham Village 1,194 948 246 -101 145 E02004342 Newton Aycliffe Central 1,331 586 745 -537 208 E02004343 Newton Aycliffe East 751 1,048 -297 119 -178 E02004344 Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South 841 1,128 -287 193 -94 E02004345 Hamsterley and Staindrop 1,546 1,958 -412 793 381 E02004346 Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale 501 650 -149 161 12 E02004347 Barnard Castle and Startforth 650 1,273 -623 950 327 E02004348 Stanhope and Wolsingham 801 1,167 -366 576 210 E02004349 Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Tow Law 1,533 1,274 259 656 915 E02004350 Crook South and Willington North 1,363 1,425 -62 1,128 1,066 E02004351 Coundon and Willington South 1,218 1,404 -186 84 -102 E02004352 Bishop Auckland and South Church 1,305 1,400 -95 845 750 E02004353 Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene 1,063 1,123 -60 -359 -419 E02004354 St Helens Auckland and West Auckland 1,439 1,344 95 1,528 1,623 E02004355 Henknowle and Woodhouse Close 1,363 1,371 -8 49 41 County Durham 75,427 75,565 -138 24,233 24,095 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2014 by MSOA.

Appendix 2: Metadata

All Themes Council Plan X Sustainable Community Strategy X Altogether Better Council Customer First Strategy theme: Medium-Term Financial Plan X Organisational Development Strategy (Please mark X Children & Families Children, Young People and Families Plan 2015-18 X

as appropriate) Greener Climate Change Delivery Plan Durham Climate Change Strategy Healthier Joint Strategic Needs Assessment X Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy 2015-2018 X Safer Safe Durham Partnership Plan X Wealthier Altogether Wealthier Delivery Plan X CDEP Prospectus March 2014 County Durham Economic Assessment X County Durham Innovation Framework County Durham Plan X County Durham Skills Strategy 2014 Housing Strategy X Local Transport Plan X Measuring our Success Regeneration Statement X State of the County Report X Factsheet title: ONS Population Estimates: Sub-county Durham Summary

Factsheet ref C1

Population estimates provide the context for how the population in the county is Why is this structured and distributed within the county boundary. They provide past trend which can be used to see how the population has changed. important Together these data provide a foundation from which plans and strategies can determine what services are required, where and how much.

Definition The estimated resident population of an area includes all people who usually live notes there, whatever their nationality. Visitors and short term-migrants (who enter or Description of leave the UK for less than 12 months) are not included. Members of Her Majesty's Armed Forces and US Armed Forces stationed in England and Wales data sets, are included but members of Her Majesty's Armed Forces stationed outside parameters and England and Wales are excluded. Students are taken to be resident at their term- quality issues. time address. For a minority of people the concept of usual residence is more difficult; homeless people would be included in the population estimates if counted in the previous Census but could be allocated to the wrong area if subsequent moves were not captured by the patient registers.

Most Office for National Statistics (ONS) population estimates, including the national and local authority estimates are made using the cohort component method. This is a standard demographic method in which information on the components of population change are used to update a population base such as the Census estimate. The resident population, by single year of age, on 30 June of the year prior to the reference year is aged on by one year; those born during the 12-month period prior to the mid-year are added on to the population and those who have died are removed.

Other factors taken into account are the movement of people into and out of the UK (international migration) and, for estimating the population for different areas within the UK, movements between areas of the UK (internal migration).

Some population subgroups such as prisoners, school boarders and armed forces (home and foreign) are estimated separately from the rest of the population. These groups are not covered by the data sources used for migration estimates and therefore their movements are not accounted for. In addition, the age structure of these population subgroups tends to remain constant over time so they are not aged forward.

Population estimates are calculated using a ‘top down’ approach. The national estimates for England and Wales are produced first; estimates for subnational areas are then produced and constrained to the national estimates. Further details of the methods used for population estimates are available on the National Statistics website.

The data sources used are the best available on a nationally consistent basis. Information from administrative registers such as the numbers of births and deaths is reliable. However, estimates of international migration are largely derived from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and are subject to sampling and non-sampling error. National figures have relatively small levels of uncertainty, but at local level the sample counts in the IPS are small and it is necessary to combine data across years and/or local areas. International migration estimates at local authority level are made by distributing higher level estimates using other data sources.

To account for internal migration, NHS patient registers are used as changes in address are recorded. Although patient registers provide the best fit to the usually resident population, they have recognised limitations with regard to timeliness and coverage. Produced at the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA), Middle Super Output Area Locality data (MSOA), Electoral Division, Local Enterprise (LEP) Partnership and Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) geography.

Trend data From 2001 to 2014 available Date November 2015 Release date November 2015 Last updated:

Reporting Person John Mitchell 2013/14 Period

Office for National Statistics (ONS) Source of data http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Population+Estimate and weblink s

Frequency of data/next November 2016 release

Meta data On release of new dataset review date