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Sub-county Population in Ref: C1 2016 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Area Action Partnership areas

Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2016 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2017 on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the fourteen Area Action Partnership (AAP) areas to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership and Clinical Commissioning areas are also available on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website along with set of maps for each area showing population change by age group. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by AAP area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the AAP areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2016 and he short term period of 2011 to 2016. Map 1: Area Action Partnerships areas covering County

Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+29,102 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-648 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+8,756 people) along with positive natural change (+393 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2015 and 2016 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,800 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 352 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.5%/2,448 people. 9. All AAP areas, except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2016 with the largest growth in the Durham AAP of 15.4%/9,033 people and the Derwent Valley AAP with growth of 14.6%/5,900 people. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 4.6%/850 people over the same period. 10. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the 3 Towns AAP (325 more children, 7.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (421 children, 7.1% rise). 11. Eight of the fourteen AAP areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in the 4 Together AAP (691 fewer children, 18.6% fall) and the AAP (704 fewer children, 16.5% fall). The East Durham AAP had the largest fall in its number of children will a fall of 2,173 children, a fall of 11.3%. 12. Trends since 2011 in the 0 to 15 age group are similar across the AAPs except for the & AAP and the Mid Durham AAP which have had small increases of 0.7% and 1.3% respectively compared to overall falls since 2001. 13. Nine of the fourteen AAP areas have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001. However since 2011 only the Durham AAP and AAP have seen a rise in this group with increases of 3.8% and 0.7% respectively. 14. Similar to the county and the other sub-county areas all fourteen AAPs have had an increase in the 65+ age group since 2001. The largest percentage increase was in the AAP which increased by 50.0%, an increase of 773 people. However the largest increase in number was in the Durham AAP with an increase of 3,398 people aged 65 and over since 2001. 15. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the 85+ population in the Great Aycliffe and nearly trebling between 2001 and 2016, rising from 246 to 671 people, an increase of 172.8%.

Population change by AAP Area Age group: Overall 16. All AAP areas except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 4.6%/850 people. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1. Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by AAP area.

Durham AAP 115% Derwent Valley AAP

3 Towns Partnership AAP

110% Stanley AAP

Spennymoor AAP

East Durham Rural AAP 105% County Durham

Mid Durham AAP

100% Weardale AAP

Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP % change % 2001 from base Teesdale AAP

95% Chester-le-Street & District AAP

East Durham AAP

Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 90%

2001 Base

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 4 Together Partnership AAP

17. The majority of growth has been in the Derwent Valley AAP and Durham AAP areas with increases of 14.6% and 15.4% respectively with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP showing the lowest increase of 0.7% over the same period. 18. Since 2011 growth has mainly been in the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP areas with growth of 6.2% and 4.7% respectively with the other areas seeing smaller increases or very small decreases (East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP and Teesdale AAP with falls of 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively). Table 1 below summarises some of these changes

Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2016 Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 3 Towns Partnership AAP 22,588 24,853 25,313 2,725 460 12.1% 1.8% 4 Together Partnership AAP 18,564 17,660 17,714 -850 54 -4.6% 0.3% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 41,367 42,258 42,703 1,336 445 3.2% 1.1% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 53,679 54,116 54,411 732 295 1.4% 0.5% Derwent Valley AAP 40,287 44,951 46,187 5,900 1,236 14.6% 2.7% Durham AAP 58,467 63,565 67,500 9,033 3,935 15.4% 6.2% East Durham AAP 92,688 93,626 93,557 869 -69 0.9% -0.1% East Durham Rural AAP 23,853 25,331 25,776 1,923 445 8.1% 1.8% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 26,697 26,954 26,895 198 -59 0.7% -0.2% Mid Durham AAP 31,973 32,821 33,444 1,472 623 4.6% 1.9% Spennymoor AAP 20,055 20,730 21,698 1,643 968 8.2% 4.7% Stanley AAP 30,990 32,769 33,591 2,601 822 8.4% 2.5% Teesdale AAP 24,459 25,009 24,986 527 -23 2.2% -0.1% Weardale AAP 8,023 8,351 8,368 346 18 4.3% 0.2% County Durham 493,689 512,994 522,143 28,454 9,149 5.8% 1.8% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,636,800 96,700 40,400 3.8% 1.6% & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,381,200 6,021,200 2,210,300 11.5% 3.9% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 0 to 15 19. Five AAP areas have seen a rise in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, with the largest percentage increase in the 3 Towns AAP of 7.3%/325 children followed by the Stanley AAP with an increase of 7.1%/421 children. The largest percentage fall in this group was in the 4 Together AAP with a fall of 18.6%/691 children while in the East Durham AAP this group has fallen by 2,173 children since 2001, a fall of 11.3%. Figure 2: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by AAP area.

3 Towns Partnership AAP 110% Stanley AAP

Derwent Valley AAP 105% Spennymoor AAP

Durham AAP

100% 2001 Base

East Durham Rural AAP

95% County Durham

Mid Durham AAP

Bishop Auckland and Shildon 90% AAP % change % 2001 from base Weardale AAP

East Durham AAP 85% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP

Chester-le-Street & District AAP

80% Teesdale AAP

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 4 Together Partnership AAP

20. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing an increase in their child population increased to eight with two areas seeing a slight reversal to the longer term trend of decline. The Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 0.7% since 2011 compared to a longer term decline of 7.7% with a similar change is seen in the Mid Durham AAP with an increase of 1.3% short term and decline of 6.3% long term. The East Durham Rural AAP had no growth from 2001 however, since 2011 the area has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 1.9%/87 children to rise to 4,652. 21. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.1% of the county total population. All AAP areas have also seen falls of between 3.2 and 0.2 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest fall in the Teesdale AAP area of 3.2 percentage points, falling from 17.5% in 2001 to 14.3% in 2011 of the areas total population. 22. The Stanley AAP area had the lowest fall of 0.2 percentage points over this period and now has the highest proportion of its population aged 0 to 15 out of the fourteen AAP areas at 19.0%. In 2001 the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP had the highest portion of children with 21.6%, this has now fallen to 18.6%. Table 2 below summarises some of these changes. Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 population between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2016 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 3 Towns Partnership 4,459 4,536 4,784 325 249 7.3% 5.5% 19.7% 18.9% AAP 4 Together Partnership 3,714 3,043 3,023 -691 -20 -18.6% -0.7% 20.0% 17.1% AAP Bishop Auckland and 8,439 7,734 7,788 -651 54 -7.7% 0.7% 20.4% 18.2% Shildon AAP Chester-le-Street & 10,332 9,288 8,978 -1,354 -310 -13.1% -3.3% 19.2% 16.5% District AAP Derwent Valley AAP 7,812 8,011 8,306 494 295 6.3% 3.7% 19.4% 18.0% Durham AAP 8,682 8,336 8,914 232 578 2.7% 6.9% 14.8% 13.2% East Durham AAP 19,188 17,062 17,015 -2,173 -47 -11.3% -0.3% 20.7% 18.2% East Durham Rural AAP 4,651 4,564 4,652 1 87 0.0% 1.9% 19.5% 18.0% Great Aycliffe & 5,757 5,174 5,014 -743 -160 -12.9% -3.1% 21.6% 18.6% Middridge AAP Mid Durham AAP 6,086 5,628 5,700 -386 72 -6.3% 1.3% 19.0% 17.0% Spennymoor AAP 3,662 3,636 3,845 183 210 5.0% 5.8% 18.3% 17.7% Stanley AAP 5,967 6,054 6,388 421 334 7.1% 5.5% 19.3% 19.0% Teesdale AAP 4,275 3,832 3,571 -704 -261 -16.5% -6.8% 17.5% 14.3% Weardale AAP 1,287 1,262 1,172 -115 -90 -8.9% -7.1% 16.0% 14.0% County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,150 -5,161 990 -5.5% 1.1% 19.1% 17.1% North East 500,900 462,200 467,795 -33,105 5,595 -6.6% 1.2% 19.7% 17.7% England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,086,179 590,979 500,179 5.6% 4.7% 20.0% 19.0% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 16 to 64 (Working age definition) 23. Since 2001 nine AAP areas have seen increases in their working age population (aged 16 to 64). However, since 2011 this trend has reversed with only two of the previous nine AAPs seeing an increase in their working age population: Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP. Figure 3: % change since 2001 in the 16 to 64 age group by AAP area

115% Derwent Valley AAP Durham AAP

3 Towns Partnership AAP

110% Stanley AAP

East Durham Rural AAP

County Durham 105% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Spennymoor AAP

East Durham AAP 100% Mid Durham AAP

% change % 2001 from base 2001 Base

95% Teesdale AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP 90% 4 Together Partnership AAP

Weardale AAP

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

24. The largest increases were in the Derwent Valley AAP, 13.5%/3,414 people rising to 28,782 and the Durham AAP, 12.3%/5,113 people rising to 46,585. The largest percentage fall was in the Teesdale AAP with a fall of 6.0%/313 people, with the largest number fall seen in the Chester-le- Street AAP of 1,312 people, a fall of 3.7%. 25. Since 2011 and as mentioned above only the Durham AAP and the Spennymoor AAP have seen increases in their working age population, increases of 3.8%/1,711 and 0.7%/88 respectively. The largest percentage fall was again in the Teesdale AAP with a fall of 5.9%/309 people indicating that the majority of the areas decrease since 2001 has been over the last five years. 26. The largest number fall was in the East Durham AAP with a fall of 1,315 people, a fall of 2.2%. This large fall in number is in part due to falling number of children, people aging into retirement and outward migration1 from the area. Since 2011 the figures show that 458 more people migrated out of the area than in to it and it is one of only two AAPs to show a net outward migration since 2011, along with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP which had net outward migration of 131 people. 27. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% from 64.3% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.7%. A similar pattern is seen across the eleven of the AAP areas except for the Chester-le-Street AAP, Teesdale AAP and the Weardale AAP which have shown more steady declines year on year since 2001.

1 Migration figures are derived from a best fit approach of MSOAs to AAPs. As these boundaries are not co-terminus there is a great deal of overlap and repetition within neighbouring AAPs. Therefore these figures are indicative only as it is possible that the data in a particular overlapping MSOA refers to a neighbouring AAP. 28. Since 2001 only the East Durham AAP has seen an increase in the proportion of its working age population, an increase of 0.5 percentage points despite seeing the number of people in this age group fall as detailed above. The Weardale AAP had the largest fall in proportion of 6.4 percentage points, falling to 58.3% in 2016. Table 3 below summarises some of these changes. Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 (working age) population between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 3 Towns Partnership AAP 14,039 15,851 15,437 1,398 -414 10.0% -2.6% 62.2% 61.0% 4 Together Partnership 11,496 11,175 10,880 -616 -295 -5.4% -2.6% 61.9% 61.4% AAP Bishop Auckland and 25,707 26,929 26,325 618 -604 2.4% -2.2% 62.1% 61.6% Shildon AAP Chester-le-Street & 35,046 34,544 33,734 -1,312 -810 -3.7% -2.3% 65.3% 62.0% District AAP Derwent Valley AAP 25,368 28,876 28,782 3,414 -94 13.5% -0.3% 63.0% 62.3% Durham AAP 41,472 44,874 46,585 5,113 1,711 12.3% 3.8% 70.9% 69.0% East Durham AAP 57,717 59,995 58,680 963 -1,315 1.7% -2.2% 62.3% 62.7% East Durham Rural AAP 15,451 16,106 15,949 497 -157 3.2% -1.0% 64.8% 61.9% Great Aycliffe & 17,007 17,032 16,381 -626 -651 -3.7% -3.8% 63.7% 60.9% Middridge AAP Mid Durham AAP 20,594 21,237 20,793 200 -443 1.0% -2.1% 64.4% 62.2% Spennymoor AAP 13,172 13,372 13,460 289 88 2.2% 0.7% 65.7% 62.0% Stanley AAP 19,848 21,086 20,785 937 -301 4.7% -1.4% 64.0% 61.9% Teesdale AAP 15,459 15,558 14,907 -552 -651 -3.6% -4.2% 63.2% 59.7% Weardale AAP 5,189 5,185 4,877 -313 -309 -6.0% -5.9% 64.7% 58.3% County Durham 317,565 331,820 327,575 10,010 -4,245 3.2% -1.3% 64.3% 62.7% North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,661,447 41,447 -20,253 2.6% -1.2% 63.8% 63.0% England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,777,560 3,254,360 488,660 9.7% 1.3% 64.0% 63.0% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 65+ 29. As with the county and other areas across the country all AAP areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with the largest percentage increase in the Weardale AAP of 50.0%/773 people. Figure 4: % change since 2001 in the 65+ age group by AAP area

150% Weardale AAP Durham AAP 145% Chester-le-Street & District 140% AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 135% East Durham Rural AAP

130% Teesdale AAP Spennymoor AAP 125% Mid Durham AAP

120% County Durham

115% Derwent Valley AAP

% change % 2001 from base 3 Towns Partnership AAP 110% Stanley AAP 105% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 100% 4 Together Partnership AAP

95% East Durham AAP

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

30. However the largest increases in the number of older people have been in the Durham AAP which increased by 3,688 people to 12,001, an increase of 44.4% and the Chester-le-Street AAP which increased by 3,398 people to 11,699, an increase of 40.9%. 31. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 16.6% to 20.2% of the county total population. All AAP areas have seen increases of between 2.0 and 8.4 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 8.4 percentage points seen in Weardale AAP, however it is important to note that this AAP had the lowest number of people aged 65+ in 2016 with 2,320 people, increasing the proportion in this area to 27.7% from 19.3% in 2001. 32. Although the Durham AAP had the largest increase in number in the age group this AAP still has the lowest proportion of its population in this group 17.8% in 2016, up from 14.2% in 2001. Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.

Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016

Population Number change % change Proportion from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 3 Towns 4,090 4,466 5,091 1,002 625 24.5% 14.0% 18.1% 20.1% Partnership AAP 4 Together 3,354 3,442 3,811 457 369 13.6% 10.7% 18.1% 21.5% Partnership AAP Bishop Auckland 7,221 7,595 8,590 1,369 995 19.0% 13.1% 17.5% 20.1% and Shildon AAP Chester-le-Street 8,301 10,284 11,699 3,398 1,415 40.9% 13.8% 15.5% 21.5% & District AAP Derwent Valley 7,107 8,064 9,099 1,992 1,035 28.0% 12.8% 17.6% 19.7% AAP Durham AAP 8,313 10,355 12,001 3,688 1,646 44.4% 15.9% 14.2% 17.8% East Durham AAP 15,783 16,569 17,862 2,079 1,293 13.2% 7.8% 17.0% 19.1% East Durham 3,751 4,660 5,176 1,425 515 38.0% 11.1% 15.7% 20.1% Rural AAP Great Aycliffe & 3,933 4,748 5,500 1,567 752 39.8% 15.8% 14.7% 20.4% Middridge AAP Mid Durham AAP 5,293 5,956 6,951 1,658 995 31.3% 16.7% 16.6% 20.8% Spennymoor AAP 3,221 3,723 4,392 1,171 670 36.3% 18.0% 16.1% 20.2% Stanley AAP 5,175 5,629 6,418 1,243 789 24.0% 14.0% 16.7% 19.1% Teesdale AAP 4,725 5,619 6,508 1,783 889 37.7% 15.8% 19.3% 26.0% Weardale AAP 1,547 1,903 2,320 773 416 50.0% 21.9% 19.3% 27.7% County Durham 81,813 93,014 105,418 23,605 12,404 28.9% 13.3% 16.6% 20.2% North East 419,200 452,600 507,606 88,406 55,006 21.1% 12.2% 16.5% 19.3% England & Wales 1,017,500 9,296,100 10,517,478 9,499,978 1,221,378 933.7% 13.1% 1.9% 18.0% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 85+ 33. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic and are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. All AAP areas have seen increases since 2001, although due to the smaller number involved the percentage changes range from increases of 5.0% to 172.8%. Figure 5: % change since 2001 in the 85+ age group by AAP area

Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 260% Spennymoor AAP Durham AAP 240% Teesdale AAP

220% Mid Durham AAP

East Durham Rural AAP 200% County Durham

180% East Durham AAP

160% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP Derwent Valley AAP 140% % change % 20101 from base Chester-le-Street & District AAP 120% 4 Together Partnership AAP Stanley AAP 100% Weardale AAP

80% 3 Towns Partnership AAP

2002 2009 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

34. The largest increase in this group was in the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP, an increase of 172.8% from 2001 which increased the number of people aged 85 and over from 246 to 671 in 2016. The 3 Towns AAP only increased by 5.0% over the same period, an increase of 27 people. 35. This trend is also seen over the shorter term period since 2011 except for the 3 Towns AAP which is the only area to see this age group fall over this period, a fall of 3.6%/21 people since 2011. The Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP increase by 35.0%/174 people over this same period. The table below summarises these changes. 36. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population and apart from the 3 Towns AAP a similar pattern can be seen across the other AAP areas. Across the 3 Towns AAP the proportion of the population aged 85 and over remained steady at 2.2%, slightly down from 2.4% in 2001. Table 4 below summarises some of these changes.

Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2016 Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2016 2001 2016 2001 2011 2001 2011 3 Towns Partnership AAP 532 580 559 27 -21 5.0% -3.6% 2.4% 2.2% 4 Together Partnership AAP 354 422 445 91 23 25.7% 5.5% 1.9% 2.5% Bishop Auckland and Shildon 759 989 1,033 274 44 36.1% 4.4% 1.8% 2.4% AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP 897 1,058 1,256 359 198 40.0% 18.7% 1.7% 2.3% Derwent Valley AAP 843 1,073 1,137 294 64 34.9% 6.0% 2.1% 2.5% Durham AAP 942 1,202 1,455 513 253 54.5% 21.0% 1.6% 2.2% East Durham AAP 1,455 1,790 2,010 555 220 38.1% 12.3% 1.6% 2.1% East Durham Rural AAP 389 542 567 178 26 45.7% 4.7% 1.6% 2.2% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 246 497 671 425 174 172.8% 35.0% 0.9% 2.5% Mid Durham AAP 538 715 791 253 76 47.0% 10.6% 1.7% 2.4% Spennymoor AAP 298 445 477 179 31 60.2% 7.0% 1.5% 2.2% Stanley AAP 579 703 712 133 9 23.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% Teesdale AAP 543 740 805 262 65 48.3% 8.8% 2.2% 3.2% Weardale AAP 198 218 226 27 8 13.8% 3.6% 2.5% 2.7% County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,144 3,570 1,170 41.6% 10.7% 1.7% 2.3% North East 43,000 56,300 62,594 19,594 6,294 45.6% 11.2% 1.7% 2.4% England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,408,727 391,227 140,127 38.4% 11.0% 1.9% 2.4% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

How does this topic link to our strategies and plans? The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the County Durham Partnership website. Other links: Population and Deprivation Sub-county profiles Author: Research and Equalities Team Approver: Research and Equalities Team Published: November 2017 Review: November 2018 Data sources: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates

Appendix 1 Table 1: Population change by Area Action Partnership area - 2001 to 2016

Number (% change from 2001)

3 Towns 4 Together Bishop Auckland Chester-le-Street Derwent Valley East Durham County Durham AAP Partnership AAP Partnership AAP and Shildon AAP & District AAP AAP AAP Durham

2001 22,588 18,564 41,367 53,679 40,287 58,467 92,688 493,689 2002 22,550 (-0.2) 18,388 (-0.9) 41,024 (-0.8) 53,875 (0.4) 40,664 (0.9) 58,230 (-0.4) 92,132 (-0.6) 493,538 (0.0) 2003 22,750 (0.7) 18,466 (-0.5) 41,257 (-0.3) 53,694 (0.0) 41,122 (2.1) 57,970 (-0.9) 91,868 (-0.9) 493,931 (0.0) 2004 23,175 (2.6) 18,594 (0.2) 41,260 (-0.3) 53,677 (0.0) 41,605 (3.3) 57,600 (-1.5) 91,812 (-0.9) 495,147 (0.3) 2005 23,472 (3.9) 18,652 (0.5) 41,527 (0.4) 53,623 (-0.1) 42,034 (4.3) 57,803 (-1.1) 92,233 (-0.5) 497,218 (0.7) 2006 23,759 (5.2) 18,573 (0.0) 41,412 (0.1) 53,833 (0.3) 42,401 (5.2) 58,792 (0.6) 92,463 (-0.2) 499,348 (1.1) 2007 24,162 (7.0) 18,317 (-1.3) 41,744 (0.9) 53,811 (0.2) 43,186 (7.2) 60,045 (2.7) 92,859 (0.2) 502,960 (1.9) 2008 24,517 (8.5) 18,050 (-2.8) 41,925 (1.3) 53,715 (0.1) 43,709 (8.5) 60,776 (3.9) 93,366 (0.7) 505,617 (2.4) 2009 24,649 (9.1) 17,910 (-3.5) 41,850 (1.2) 53,993 (0.6) 44,010 (9.2) 60,990 (4.3) 93,682 (1.1) 507,311 (2.8) 2010 24,717 (9.4) 17,774 (-4.3) 42,086 (1.7) 54,015 (0.6) 44,513 (10.5) 62,698 (7.2) 93,587 (1.0) 510,628 (3.4) 2011 24,853 (10.0) 17,660 (-4.9) 42,258 (2.2) 54,116 (0.8) 44,951 (11.6) 63,565 (8.7) 93,626 (1.0) 512,994 (3.9) 2012 24,811 (9.8) 17,570 (-5.4) 42,265 (2.2) 54,308 (1.2) 45,216 (12.2) 64,131 (9.7) 93,621 (1.0) 514,348 (4.2) 2013 24,885 (10.2) 17,504 (-5.7) 42,375 (2.4) 54,228 (1.0) 45,270 (12.4) 65,676 (12.3) 93,606 (1.0) 515,957 (4.5) 2014 25,011 (10.7) 17,547 (-5.5) 42,461 (2.6) 54,434 (1.4) 45,714 (13.5) 66,002 (12.9) 93,542 (0.9) 517,773 (4.9) 2015 25,107 (11.2) 17,675 (-4.8) 42,616 (3.0) 54,451 (1.4) 45,961 (14.1) 66,283 (13.4) 93,550 (0.9) 519,695 (5.3) 2016 25,313 (12.1) 17,714 (-4.6) 42,703 (3.2) 54,411 (1.4) 46,187 (14.6) 67,500 (15.4) 93,557 (0.9) 522,143 (5.8) Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Table 1: Continued

Number (% change from 2001)

East Durham Great Aycliffe & County Mid Durham AAP Spennymoor AAP Stanley AAP Teesdale AAP Weardale AAP Rural AAP Middridge AAP Durham

2001 23,853 26,697 31,973 20,055 30,990 24,459 8,023 493,689 2002 24,003 (0.6) 26,834 (0.5) 31,775 (-0.6) 20,251 (1.0) 31,029 (0.1) 24,638 (0.7) 8,145 (1.5) 493,538 (0.0) 2003 24,194 (1.4) 26,604 (-0.3) 31,697 (-0.9) 20,323 (1.3) 31,166 (0.6) 24,734 (1.1) 8,086 (0.8) 493,931 (0.0) 2004 24,322 (2.0) 26,782 (0.3) 31,535 (-1.4) 20,409 (1.8) 31,396 (1.3) 24,854 (1.6) 8,125 (1.3) 495,147 (0.3) 2005 24,426 (2.4) 26,764 (0.3) 31,566 (-1.3) 20,471 (2.1) 31,575 (1.9) 24,870 (1.7) 8,202 (2.2) 497,218 (0.7) 2006 24,466 (2.6) 26,611 (-0.3) 31,874 (-0.3) 20,476 (2.1) 31,536 (1.8) 24,928 (1.9) 8,224 (2.5) 499,348 (1.1) 2007 24,722 (3.6) 26,665 (-0.1) 32,001 (0.1) 20,525 (2.3) 31,750 (2.5) 24,870 (1.7) 8,303 (3.5) 502,960 (1.9) 2008 24,873 (4.3) 26,623 (-0.3) 32,221 (0.8) 20,541 (2.4) 32,074 (3.5) 24,915 (1.9) 8,312 (3.6) 505,617 (2.4) 2009 24,852 (4.2) 26,744 (0.2) 32,364 (1.2) 20,635 (2.9) 32,217 (4.0) 25,088 (2.6) 8,326 (3.8) 507,311 (2.8) 2010 25,129 (5.4) 26,840 (0.5) 32,640 (2.1) 20,623 (2.8) 32,476 (4.8) 25,144 (2.8) 8,386 (4.5) 510,628 (3.4) 2011 25,331 (6.2) 26,954 (1.0) 32,821 (2.7) 20,730 (3.4) 32,769 (5.7) 25,009 (2.2) 8,351 (4.1) 512,994 (3.9) 2012 25,427 (6.6) 27,015 (1.2) 32,777 (2.5) 20,963 (4.5) 32,856 (6.0) 25,057 (2.4) 8,331 (3.8) 514,348 (4.2) 2013 25,449 (6.7) 26,822 (0.5) 32,871 (2.8) 21,086 (5.1) 32,929 (6.3) 24,971 (2.1) 8,285 (3.3) 515,957 (4.5) 2014 25,566 (7.2) 26,774 (0.3) 32,994 (3.2) 21,265 (6.0) 33,025 (6.6) 25,178 (2.9) 8,260 (3.0) 517,773 (4.9) 2015 25,684 (7.7) 26,820 (0.5) 33,367 (4.4) 21,468 (7.0) 33,332 (7.6) 25,079 (2.5) 8,301 (3.5) 519,695 (5.3) 2016 25,776 (8.1) 26,895 (0.7) 33,444 (4.6) 21,698 (8.2) 33,591 (8.4) 24,986 (2.2) 8,368 (4.3) 522,143 (5.8) Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates.

Appendix 2 Long Term (2001 to 2016) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and 2016. 2. Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 47 had positive net migration. 3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 3,411 additional people between 2001 and 2016, an increase of 41.1% from 2001. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 215 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3,196. 4. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 33.2%, (an increase of 3,361 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,255 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 894 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of and development of student accommodation in these areas. 5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004327) with a fall of 858 people and the Acre Rigg & Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 748 people during this period, falls of 12.7% and 9.3% respectively. 6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (200 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (658 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (1,196 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 448 to its population. 7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2016 with 894 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,255 out of all 66 MSOAs. 8. The area of Central (MSOA E02004342) had the highest growth in natural change of 786 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2016 by MSOA

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City St Helens Auckland and Murton South and Delves and Leadgate South Leadgate North and East Consett West and Castleside North and Seaton Byers Green and Spennymoor Craghead and South Stanley Gilesgate Moor and Cassop and Crook South and Willington North Crook North Howden-le-Wear and… Bishop Auckland and South Church and Wingate Stanley North and Kip Hill and and and and Waldridge Medomsley and Shotley Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West North and Dipton South and Newton Hall Sherburn and West and Net Natural Brandon Change Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Stanhope and Migration Newton Aycliffe Central Chester-le-Street North Dipton North and Tantobie Annfield Plain South and South Moor Thornley Deaf Hill and Lanchester Midridge and Woodham Village and Seaham Harbour Coundon and Willington South Chilton and Station Hamsterley and Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Pelton and Grange Villa and Middleton-in-Teesdale and Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean… Chester-le-Street South Newton Aycliffe South and Trimdons Langley Park and Newton Aycliffe East Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Shildon Spennymoor North and Tudhoe South and Eden Hill Belmont and Carville Beamish Ouston and and Ferryhill Cockton Hill and Dene Easington Colliery North Passfield and Shotton Blackhalls Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central

Horden

0

500

-500

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

1,500 2,500 3,500

-2,000 -1,000 -1,500

Medium Term (2011 to 2016) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 9. At a more local level, two thirds (44) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and 2016. 10. Half of MSOAs (33) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration. 11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 1,538 additional people between 2011 and 2016, an increase of 15.1% from 2011. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 54 and high positive migration into the area of 1,484 more people moving into the area than leaving. 12. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 10.7%, (an increase of 1,304 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 1,607 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 303 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004342) with a fall of 487 people and Newton Aycliffe Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 179 people during this period, falls of 7.6% and 3.0% respectively. 14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (97 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (219 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Newton Aycliffe Central it was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (443 more people moving out of the area than in) as natural change added an additional 264 to its population during this period. 15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) area, which had the second highest fall in population from 2001, showed relatively little change between 2011 and 2016 with a fall in population of 72, due to positive natural change of 154 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 226 more people moving out of the area than in. 16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E02004347) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2016 with 349 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of 330. 17. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest positive net migration of 1,607 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004328) had the highest net outward migration figure of 443 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA

Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2016 by MSOA

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City Consett West and Castleside Bowburn and Shincliffe Byers Green and Spennymoor Gilesgate Moor Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean Bank Shotton Colliery Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Craghead and South Stanley Coundon and Willington South Cassop and Coxhoe Brasside and Newton Hall Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Chilton and Ferryhill Station Delves and Leadgate South Murton South and South Hetton Sacriston and Waldridge Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Pelton and Grange Villa Lanchester Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Annfield Plain South and South Moor Crook South and Willington North Medomsley and Shotley Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Stanley North and Kip Hill Bishop Auckland and South Church Sherburn and Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Net Hamsterley and Staindrop Natural Seaham North and Seaton Midridge and Woodham Village Change Crook North Howden-le-Wear and Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Migration Newton Aycliffe East Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Brandon Stanhope and Wolsingham Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Leadgate North and Consett East Hutton Henry and Wingate Barnard Castle and Startforth Blackhalls Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Chester-le-Street South Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central Chester-le-Street North Belmont and Carville Cornforth and Ferryhill Shildon Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Bournmoor and Great Lumley Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Passfield and Shotton Fishburn and Trimdons Easington Colliery North Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Newton Aycliffe Central

Horden

0

0

500

500

-500

-500

1,000 1,500 2,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 -1,000