Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2016 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Area Action Partnership areas Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2016 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2017 on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the fourteen Area Action Partnership (AAP) areas to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership and Clinical Commissioning areas are also available on the Integrated Needs Assessment section of the County Durham Partnership website along with set of maps for each area showing population change by age group. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by AAP area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the AAP areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2016 and he short term period of 2011 to 2016. Map 1: Area Action Partnerships areas covering County Durham County Council Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+29,102 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-648 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+8,756 people) along with positive natural change (+393 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2015 and 2016 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,800 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 352 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.5%/2,448 people. 9. All AAP areas, except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2016 with the largest growth in the Durham AAP of 15.4%/9,033 people and the Derwent Valley AAP with growth of 14.6%/5,900 people. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 4.6%/850 people over the same period. 10. Six of the fourteen AAPs have seen the number of children aged 0 to 15 increase since 2001 with the largest increases in the 3 Towns AAP (325 more children, 7.3% rise) and the Stanley AAP (421 children, 7.1% rise). 11. Eight of the fourteen AAP areas have seen the number of children (aged 0 to 15) fall since 2001 with the largest percentage falls in the 4 Together AAP (691 fewer children, 18.6% fall) and the Teesdale AAP (704 fewer children, 16.5% fall). The East Durham AAP had the largest fall in its number of children will a fall of 2,173 children, a fall of 11.3%. 12. Trends since 2011 in the 0 to 15 age group are similar across the AAPs except for the Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP and the Mid Durham AAP which have had small increases of 0.7% and 1.3% respectively compared to overall falls since 2001. 13. Nine of the fourteen AAP areas have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001. However since 2011 only the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP have seen a rise in this group with increases of 3.8% and 0.7% respectively. 14. Similar to the county and the other sub-county areas all fourteen AAPs have had an increase in the 65+ age group since 2001. The largest percentage increase was in the Weardale AAP which increased by 50.0%, an increase of 773 people. However the largest increase in number was in the Durham AAP with an increase of 3,398 people aged 65 and over since 2001. 15. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with the 85+ population in the Great Aycliffe and Middridge nearly trebling between 2001 and 2016, rising from 246 to 671 people, an increase of 172.8%. Population change by AAP Area Age group: Overall 16. All AAP areas except for the 4 Together AAP, have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. In the 4 Together AAP the population fell by 4.6%/850 people. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 1. Figure 1: % change in total population since 2001 by AAP area. Durham AAP 115% Derwent Valley AAP 3 Towns Partnership AAP 110% Stanley AAP Spennymoor AAP East Durham Rural AAP 105% County Durham Mid Durham AAP 100% Weardale AAP Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP % change% 2001 from base Teesdale AAP 95% Chester-le-Street & District AAP East Durham AAP Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 90% 2001 Base 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 4 Together Partnership AAP 17. The majority of growth has been in the Derwent Valley AAP and Durham AAP areas with increases of 14.6% and 15.4% respectively with the Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP showing the lowest increase of 0.7% over the same period. 18. Since 2011 growth has mainly been in the Durham AAP and Spennymoor AAP areas with growth of 6.2% and 4.7% respectively with the other areas seeing smaller increases or very small decreases (East Durham AAP, Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP and Teesdale AAP with falls of 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively). Table 1 below summarises some of these changes Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2016 Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2016 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 3 Towns Partnership AAP 22,588 24,853 25,313 2,725 460 12.1% 1.8% 4 Together Partnership AAP 18,564 17,660 17,714 -850 54 -4.6% 0.3% Bishop Auckland and Shildon AAP 41,367 42,258 42,703 1,336 445 3.2% 1.1% Chester-le-Street & District AAP 53,679 54,116 54,411 732 295 1.4% 0.5% Derwent Valley AAP 40,287 44,951 46,187 5,900 1,236 14.6% 2.7% Durham AAP 58,467 63,565 67,500 9,033 3,935 15.4% 6.2% East Durham AAP 92,688 93,626 93,557 869 -69 0.9% -0.1% East Durham Rural AAP 23,853 25,331 25,776 1,923 445 8.1% 1.8% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP 26,697 26,954 26,895 198 -59 0.7% -0.2% Mid Durham AAP 31,973 32,821 33,444 1,472 623 4.6% 1.9% Spennymoor AAP 20,055 20,730 21,698 1,643 968 8.2% 4.7% Stanley AAP 30,990 32,769 33,591 2,601 822 8.4% 2.5% Teesdale AAP 24,459 25,009 24,986 527 -23 2.2% -0.1% Weardale AAP 8,023 8,351 8,368 346 18 4.3% 0.2% County Durham 493,689 512,994 522,143 28,454 9,149 5.8% 1.8% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,636,800 96,700 40,400 3.8% 1.6% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,381,200 6,021,200 2,210,300 11.5% 3.9% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates Age group: 0 to 15 19. Five AAP areas have seen a rise in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, with the largest percentage increase in the 3 Towns AAP of 7.3%/325 children followed by the Stanley AAP with an increase of 7.1%/421 children. The largest percentage fall in this group was in the 4 Together AAP with a fall of 18.6%/691 children while in the East Durham AAP this group has fallen by 2,173 children since 2001, a fall of 11.3%. Figure 2: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by AAP area. 3 Towns Partnership AAP 110% Stanley AAP Derwent Valley AAP 105% Spennymoor AAP Durham AAP 100% 2001 Base East Durham Rural AAP 95% County Durham Mid Durham AAP Bishop Auckland and Shildon 90% AAP % change% 2001 from base Weardale AAP East Durham AAP 85% Great Aycliffe & Middridge AAP Chester-le-Street & District AAP 80% Teesdale AAP 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2001 4 Together Partnership AAP 20. Since 2011 the number of AAPs seeing an increase in their child population increased to eight with two areas seeing a slight reversal to the longer term trend of decline. The Bishop Auckland & Shildon AAP has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 0.7% since 2011 compared to a longer term decline of 7.7% with a similar change is seen in the Mid Durham AAP with an increase of 1.3% short term and decline of 6.3% long term. The East Durham Rural AAP had no growth from 2001 however, since 2011 the area has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by 1.9%/87 children to rise to 4,652. 21. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.1% of the county total population.