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What Killed Yugoslavia?

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What Killed Yugoslavia? What Killed Yugoslavia? Social Determinants of Political Collapse by Djordje Stefanovic A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Sociology University of Toronto © Copyright by Dj ordj e Stefanovic 2008 Library and Bibliotheque et 1*1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-44820-5 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-44820-5 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par Plntemet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. Canada What Killed Yugoslavia? Social Determinants of Political Collapse Djordje Stefanovic Department of Sociology University of Toronto Doctor of Philosophy 2008 ABSTRACT This dissertation develops an empirically based analysis of the role of culture and key political institutions in the popular support for ultra-nationalists in the process of the Yugoslav disintegration and its aftermath. The dissertation responds to three key substantive questions. First, is there any validity in the often-repeated claims about the importance of "ancient hatreds" or "clash of civilizations" in the Yugoslav collapse? Second, did the erstwhile Yugoslav federalism contain or deepen ethnic tensions and conflicts? Third, does the enduring strong popular support for ultra-nationalists in some ex-Yugoslav republics mean that ethnicity has "trumped" class? To answer these questions, I have used a variety of recent quantitative data (election results data sets, census results, and survey data sets) as well as historical evidence (internal policy documents, secret diplomatic correspondence, and diaries of officials). On the basis of the statistical and comparative historical analysis, my dissertation arrives at several important findings. First, Yugoslavia was neither undermined by "ancient hatreds" nor torn apart by "the clash of civilizations." Instead, the political elites exploited a tradition of intolerance (especially negative visions of the Other) formed in the pre-communist period. Second, the poorly designed federalist institutions in Yugoslavia (and other Communist federations) unintentionally undermined ii political unity and strengthened the nationalism they were supposed to contain. Finally, the rise of the far right did not happen because "ethnicity trumps class." Rather, the appeal of class-specific welfare chauvinism - the demand that only the ethnic majority receives social protection - enabled ultra-nationalists to mobilize economically vulnerable sections of the majority population. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT II LIST OF TABLES VI LIST OF FIGURES VII CHAPTER ONE: What Killed Yugoslavia? Existing Answers and Their Limitations 1 Introduction 1 Ancient Hatreds or Elite Manipulation? 2 Subversive Institutions? 9 Ethnicity Trumped Class? 11 Overview of the Chapters 13 CHAPTER TWO: Seeing the Albanians through Serbian Eyes: The Inventors of the Tradition of Intolerance and Their Critics, 1804-1939 17 1804 -1839: The Liberation and the Cleansing of Serbia of Muslims 18 Different Visions of National Identity and State Formation 21 1878: A 'Model' Ethnic Cleansing? 25 1878 — 1912: The Persecution of Kosovo Serbs and Hardening of Anti-Albanian Resentment in Serbia 28 The Liberations/Conquests of Kosovo: 1912-1924 34 The Failure of the Colonial Policy, 1924-1929 42 Planning the Cleansing of Kosovo from the Albanians, 1929-1940 45 Assimilate, Deport, or Kill: The Formation of the Cleansed National States at the Balkans 49 CHAPTER THREE: The Unintended Consequences of Ethno- Federalism: How Yugoslav Communists Dug Their Own Graves 56 The Ethno-Federal Dilemma. 56 The Containment Effect of Ethno-Federalism?. 57 The Fragmentation Effect of Ethno-Federalism?. 59 Where the Medicine turned into Poison: The Yugoslav Case. 62 Yugoslavia's Three Waves of Decentralization 63 Yugoslavia as a "Facade Federation" 63 The Confederal Turn in the mid-1960s 64 The 1974 Decentralization: Killing Ethnic Nationalism with Kindness. 66 Effects of Decentralization 68 Incompleteness of Ethnic Republics and Slovenian Exceptionalism 68 Yugoslavia against Yugoslavs 69 Ethnicized Economic Equalization Policy. 72 The Rise of Titular Nationalisms 75 Ethnic Nationalism within the "Vanguard" 76 The Centre's Response to Nationalism: Purge the Sinners, IV Sweeten the Sin 79 The Withdrawal to Home Republics 80 From Unimaginable to Inevitable: The Disintegration of Yugoslavia 83 The Economic Crisis of the 1980s 83 Failure of Attempts to Escape Ethnic Fragmentation 85 Three Paths Out of Yugoslavia 86 Discussion 89 The Unintended Consequences of Yugoslav Ethnic Federalism 89 Generalizability of Yugoslav Experience? 92 CHAPTER FOUR: The Path to Weimar Serbia? Explaining the Resurgence of the Serbian Far Right After the Fall of Milosevic 95 Introduction 95 The European Far Right: Defenders of 'White Christian' Europe 98 The Crisis of Serbian Society and the Rise of Serbian Radicals 99 Theoretical Explanations of Intolerance and Support for Ultra-Nationalists 103 Ethnic Threat. 103 Economic Vulnerability. 107 Data and Measures 110 Results 113 Discussion 118 Appendix 4A Ethnicity and Support for the Radicals 123 Appendix 4B. Variable Descriptions, Data Sources, and Hypothesized Effects 124 CHAPTER FIVE: Conclusion 125 Understanding the Weight of History 125 The Impact of Ethno-Federalism: How the Yugoslav Communists Dug Their Own Graves 128 Why Does the Public Support Ultra-Nationalists? The Welfare Chauvinism Thesis 130 Conclusion: Better Answers, New Limitations, Comparative Implications 132 REFERENCES 136 v List of Tables Table 3.1: Ethnic Completeness of the Republics in 1948 and 1981 69 Table 3.2: Per Capita Social Product of the Regions as a Percent of Yugoslav Average 73 Table 3.3: Major Ethno-nationalist Mobilizations in the Yugoslav Communist Party....77 Table 3.4: Economic Factors and Internal Migration, 1971-1981 82 Table 3.5: Concentration in Home Republics by Internal Migration, 1961-1981 83 Table 3.6: Personal Attachment of Yugoslav Citizens to Territorial Organization, May-June 1990 88 Table 3.7: Predictors and Timing of Secessions of Yugoslav Republic and Provinces....89 Table 4.1: Regression of the Percentage Majority Vote for the SRS on Predictors, December 2000 Elections 114 Table 4.2: Regression of the Percentage Majority Vote for the SRS on Predictors, September 2002 Elections 116 Table 4.3: Regression of the Percentage Majority Vote for the SRS on Predictors, 13 June 2004, Presidential Elections (Round One) 117 Table 4.4. Regression of the Percentage Majority Vote for the SRS on Predictors, 27 June 2004, Presidential Elections (Round Two) 118 Table 5.1. Peak Political Performance of Major European Far Right Parties, 1989-2002 131 vi List of Figures Figure 3.1: Withdrawal to Home Republics 81 vii 1 Chapter One: What Killed Yugoslavia? Existing Answers and Their Limitations Introduction The fall of Yugoslavia and the horrific violence accompanying its disintegration have spawned an abundance of publications attempting to explain these tragic developments. Although laudable in its efforts to respond in a timely fashion to the rising public and political demand for an instant understanding of the region's complex history and politics, much of the literature does not meet scholarly standards. Seeking to address this lacuna in scholarship, my work aims to offer a nuanced and empirically based analysis of the role of culture, key political institutions, and popular support for ultra-nationalists in the process of the Yugoslav disintegration and its aftermath. To this end, I will respond to three key substantive questions. First, is there any validity in the often repeated claims about the importance of "ancient hatreds" in the Yugoslav collapse? Second, did Yugoslav federalism contain or deepen the ethnic tensions and conflicts? Third, does the enduring strong popular support for ultra-nationalists
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