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CJ ENM a Trendsetter (035760 KQ)

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CJ ENM a Trendsetter (035760 KQ) CJ ENM A trendsetter (035760 KQ) Coverage initiated with BUY and TP of W230,000 - CJ ENM was created via a merger between CJ Group affiliates CJ E&M (media) and 솓 CJ O Shopping (TV shopping) with an aim of overcoming the limited growth potential of the TV business in the digital era. - Our W230,000 target price for the combined entity is based on a 12-month forward EPS of W11,015 and a target P/E multiple of 21, the average between the respective five-year average P/E ratio of CJ E&M (27.4) and CJ O Shopping (14.3) pre-merger. - Almost a year into the merger, the company is yet to create business synergies. However, the combination of the media giant and the stable shopping business itself is enough to guarantee a 5% revenue CAGR and a 10% profit CAGR through 2021. TV biz - CJ ENM’s core TV business (revenue mix 37%) is on pace to grow at a CAGR of 8% over the next three years. HJ Kim GY Lee - Backed by the strong TV business, ad revenue will likely grow at a 10% CAGR, driven [email protected] [email protected] in particular by its strong performance on digital platforms (14%). Ad rates, which have Rating increased 400% over the past five years, will continue to rise, thanks to the strong BUY viewership for dramas aired on the company’s flagship cable channel tvN. initiate - The company is expected to clinch more content deals (CAGR 10%) as global 6M TP (W) 230,000 streaming platforms such as Disney+ and Apple TV follow Netflix’s suit and launch their services in Korea. initiate Shopping biz CP (W) 171,400 (19.09.27) - Despite the slow growth in the TV segment (3%), the shopping business, the second- Media largest revenue contributor (29%), is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% over the next three years thanks to its strong growth on digital platforms (11%). - The division is delivering OP margin of 10%, the fattest among the company’s Industry 4.0 safety rating ■ Neutral Green businesses KOSDAQ 626.93 - CJ ENM is leading in both the T-commerce and V-commerce markets. Market cap (Wbn) 3,759 - It is using E&M (entertainment & media) content to sell products on its platforms. A year Market cap portion (%) 1.66 after last July’s merger, the company will start to feel greater business synergies. Paid-in capital (common; Wbn) 111 52w high/low (W) 255,700 / 150,900 Cinema biz 120d avg. trading volume (Wbn) 11.7 - The cinema is set to grow at a CAGR of 7% over the next three years, helped by a Foreign ownership (%) 17.98 Major shareholders CJ+5: 42.70% steady stream of revenue from distribution services (revenue contribution 51%). National Pension Service: - To reduce risks, the division plans to invest about 20% of its programming budget to 15 6.01% titles a year. (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Music biz Abs. return 13.2 0.1 -22.7 -32.4 - Rel. return 6.2 11.5 -10.1 -10.2 CJ ENM’s music labels include Stone Music Entertainment and MMO Entertainment, (W(1천원K) ) CJ ENMENM((LHS)좌) (%) both of which specialize in their respective genre. 270 Relative to KOSDAQ(우) 25 Relative to KOSDAQ - The company also produces original sound tracks for tvN dramas. 20 - Building on the success of music programming Produce, the company is holding music 238 15 10 concerts at home and abroad. 5 205 0 -5 173 -10 -15 140 -20 18.09 18.12 19.03 19.06 19.09 This report has been prepared by Daishin Securities Co., Ltd. SEE APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION. Company Analysis 2019.09.30 www.daishin.com CJ ENM (035760 KQ) Operating results and major financial data (Wbn, W, x, %) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 2,260 3,427 4,727 4,879 5,050 OP 224 251 361 376 408 Pretax profit 184 217 347 388 427 NP 143 184 238 287 316 NP (controlling int.) 131 163 210 252 278 EPS 21,054 11,514 9,582 11,507 12,681 PER 11.0 17.5 17.9 14.9 13.5 BPS 165,443 195,622 134,518 144,679 155,570 PBR 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 ROE 13.5 8.6 7.4 8.2 8.4 Note: EPS, BPS, and ROE are based only on the controlling interest. Source: CJ ENM, Daishin Securities Research Center 2 DAISHIN SECURITIES Balance sheet 1 (Wbn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Current asset 664 1,807 1,957 2,137 2,214 Cash & cash equivalents 114 453 247 384 413 Trade & other receivables 372 941 1,275 1,315 1,358 Inventory assets 76 94 130 134 139 Others 101 318 304 304 304 Long-term assets 2,138 4,948 5,230 5,565 5,925 Tangible assets 816 1,398 1,413 1,428 1,441 Investments in affiliates 96 1,241 1,297 1,378 1,467 Other financial assets 192 276 276 276 276 Others 1,034 2,033 2,245 2,483 2,741 Total assets 2,802 6,755 7,187 7,702 8,139 Current liabilities 732 2,022 2,022 2,162 2,302 Trade and other payables 446 941 1,011 1,019 1,029 Borrowings 22 693 824 955 1,086 Current portion of LT debts 152 201 0 0 0 Others 111 188 188 188 188 Long-term liabilities 586 1,308 1,308 1,308 1,308 Borrowings 511 1,033 1,033 1,033 1,033 Convertible securities 0 0 0 0 0 Others 75 275 275 275 275 Total liabilities 1,318 3,329 3,530 3,769 3,909 Controlling interest 1,028 2,763 2,950 3,173 3,412 Paid-in capital 31 111 111 111 111 Capital surplus 80 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 Retained earnings 924 1,070 1,256 1,479 1,718 Other changes in capital -7 -662 -662 -662 -662 Non-controlling interest 456 662 707 761 818 Total shareholders’ equity 1,484 3,426 3,657 3,933 4,229 Total borrowings 686 1,933 1,863 1,994 2,125 Net borrowings 489 1,384 1,521 1,514 1,617 Return on Capital (%) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F ROA 8.1 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 ROIC 8.6 7.0 5.8 5.9 6.0 ROE 13.5 8.6 7.4 8.2 8.4 Financial Leverage (%, x) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Debt Ratio 88.8 97.2 96.5 95.8 92.4 Short-Term Borrowings Ratio 1.5 20.2 22.5 24.3 25.7 Borrowings Ratio 46.2 56.4 50.9 50.7 50.2 Net Borrowings Ratio 32.9 40.4 41.6 38.5 38.2 Interest Coverage Ratio 11.1 7.5 10.8 10.5 10.7 Borrowings / Market Capitalization 34.1 31.3 41.2 41.0 43.8 Borrowings / Sales 21.6 40.4 32.2 31.0 32.0 Borrowings / EBITDA 104.2 178.1 141.5 137.2 139.8 Turnover (%) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Accounts Receivable Turnover 7.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 Accounts Payable Turnover 62.8 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 Inventory Assets Turnover 29.6 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 Tangible Assets Turnover 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 Total Assets Turnover 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Source: CJ ENM, Daishin Securities Research Center 3 CJ ENM (035760 KQ) Balance sheet 2 (Wbn) 19/1QA 19/2QA 19/3QF 19/4QF 2019F Current asset 1,820 2,105 1,975 1,957 1,957 Cash & cash equivalents 327 453 300 247 247 Trade & other receivables 942 1,064 1,170 1,275 1,275 Inventory assets 99 101 116 130 130 Others 452 487 389 304 304 Long-term assets 5,149 5,278 5,198 5,122 5,230 Tangible assets 1,527 1,544 1,478 1,413 1,413 Investments in affiliates 1,283 1,303 1,300 1,297 1,297 Other financial assets 266 272 274 276 272 Others 2,072 2,159 2,145 2,136 2,249 Total assets 6,968 7,383 7,172 7,187 7,187 Current liabilities 2,258 2,500 2,261 1,835 2,022 Trade and other payables 907 974 993 1,011 1,011 Borrowings 574 730 777 824 824 Current portion of LT debts 441 441 220 0 0 Others 337 355 271 0 188 Long-term liabilities 1,221 1,325 1,316 1,308 1,308 Borrowings 794 858 946 1,033 1,033 Convertible securities 0 0 0 0 0 Others 427 467 371 275 275 Total liabilities 3,479 3,825 3,577 3,530 3,530 Controlling interest 2,823 2,883 2,914 2,950 2,950 Paid-in capital 111 111 111 111 111 Capital surplus 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 Retained earnings 1,089 1,152 1,201 1,256 1,256 Other changes in capital -622 -624 -643 -662 -662 Non-controlling interest 666 674 681 707 707 Total shareholders’ equity 3,489 3,558 3,595 3,657 3,657 Total borrowings 1,956 2,190 2,027 1,863 1,863 Net borrowings 1,426 1,554 1,587 1,521 1,521 Return on Capital (%) 19/1QA 19/2QA 19/3QF 19/4QF 2019F ROA 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 5.2 ROIC 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 5.8 ROE 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.3 7.4 Financial Leverage (%, x) 19/1QA 19/2QA 19/3QF 19/4QF 2019F Debt Ratio 99.7 107.5 99.5 96.5 96.5 Short-Term Borrowings Ratio 16.4 20.5 21.6 22.5 22.5 Borrowings Ratio 56.1 61.6 56.4 50.9 50.9 Net Borrowings Ratio 40.9 43.7 44.2 41.6 41.6 Interest Coverage Ratio 0.0 0.0 4.7 5.7 10.8 Borrowings / Market Capitalization 27.9 40.0 40.9 39.2 41.2 Borrowings / Sales 129.1 123.3 140.2 123.6 32.2 Borrowings / EBITDA 498.7 507.4 681.3 608.8 141.5 Turnover (%) 19/1QA 19/2QA 19/3QF 19/4QF 2019F Accounts Receivable Turnover 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 3.9 Accounts Payable Turnover 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 18.4 Inventory Assets Turnover 11.1 12.5 9.8 9.5 36.4 Tangible Assets Turnover 75.5 82.1 74.9 85.1 336.3 Total Assets Turnover 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 Source: CJ ENM, Daishin Securities Research Center 4 DAISHIN SECURITIES Income statement 1 (Wbn) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue 2,260 3,427 4,727 4,879 5,050 COGS 988 1,998 2,978 3,087 3,190 GP 1,272 1,429 1,749 1,792 1,860 Selling & administrative expense 1,047 1,178 1,388 1,416 1,452 OP 224 251 361 376 408 EBITDA 469 777 1,075 1,104 1,157 Non-OP -40 -34 -14 12 19 Affiliate gain/loss 6 -2 49 74 82 Financial revenue 12 41 64 61 62 FX related gain 0 0 0 0 0 Financial expense -25 -44 -79 -74 -73 FX related loss 3 8 0 0 0 Others -33 -29 -49 -50 -51 Net income before corporate tax 184 217 347 388 427 Corporate tax expense -41 -33 -109 -101 -111 Net income From Continuing Operations 143 184 238 287 316 Net income From Discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 Operations Net income 143 184 238 287 316 Net income for the non-controlling 13 22 28 34 38 interest Net income for the controlling interest 131 163 210 252 278 Financial assets available for sales 9 0 0 0 0 Other comprehensive net income -10 -51 -51 -51 -51 Comprehensive income 142 134 187 236 265 Comprehensive income for the non- 11 20 22 28 32 contr.
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