Thursday, June 21, 2001 ! Volume 7, Number 40 Page 1 of 9 JFK, Nixon, Dole, The Kemp, LBJ ... Bayh? Howey !"#$%&'()&*#+($(,*+%&'*-(+"."-%(/'&01 By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis John F. Kennedy. Richard M. Nixon. Lyndon Johnson. Political Hubert Horatio Hornblo ... er, Humphrey. George Herbert Walker Bush. Bob Dole. Jack Kemp. Evan Bayh? Last week’s announcement by Sen. Bayh about what Report Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times called “one of the earliest withdrawals in modern presidential campaign histo- The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink ry” puts him in an entirely different national category. It is Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the one that we experienced with Bayh in 2000 - the veepstakes. political process in Indiana. Only this time Bayh will have shed his Quaylesque (who is Brian A. Howey, publisher that? circa 1988) and will join an elite group of prominent national figures -- those mentioned in paragraph one -- who Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer seemed more likely destined to join the national ticket as a Jack E. Howey, editor vice presidential candidate than the top gun. The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 In Nixon’s and Kennedy’s cases, both were WWII PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 veterans who made an instant impact in the House and were Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 put on the fast track. Nixon made the ticket in 1952, and [email protected] JFK almost did in 1956, nudged out by Sen. Estes Kefauver www.howeypolitics.com on Adlai Stevenson’s ticket. With LBJ, HHH, GHWBush, Washington office: 202-775-3242; Dole and Kemp, their status was gained over time perform- Business Office: 317-254-0535. ing with prominent Senate careers and they took their place in line with high hopes of using the veepstakes as the best Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or path to POTUS after failed primary candidacies. fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily By taking himself out of the crowded 2004 presiden- Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. tial race, Bayh joins a group of one. While the Kerrys, © 2001, The Howey Political Report. All rights Edwardses, Liebermans, Gores and Gephardts prance reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or through Iowa and New Hampshire pandering for votes -- and reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- inevitably one or more will fall off a stage, get a pie in the tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. face, or find himself chastised over a rented microphone -- Continued on page 2

“The press coverage of the state’s new air- Ticker: Carter doubts allowance p. 2 plane exemplifies many of the problems that O’Bannon-Kernan: Staff shakeups p. 4 plague Indiana ....’’ Columnists: Marcus, Smith p. 6 Horse Race: Rothenberg on Congress - Columnist Morton Marcus forecast; Bauer eyes 2nd CD; Buyer leads Kerns in 4th CD p. 7 Thursday, June 21, 2001 Page 2 of 9

CARTER EXPRESSES RESERVATIONS ABOUT SHELTER ALLOWANCE: Attorney General Steve Carter is publicly doubting the constitutionality of the controversial two words of the new property tax assessment rules for Indiana -- shelter allowance. The shelter allowance has generated considerable publicity -- both positive and negative -- since it was introduced by Gov. Frank O'Bannon. But most home- stituency -- centrist activists and donors owners won't even care from page 1 about it until they get their Bayh, linked to the Democratic Leadership May 2003 tax bills (Times of Bayh will concentrate on his Senate career Council -- probably would go first to Al Northwest Indiana). Carter where his political stripes will moderate. Gore or Lieberman. By sitting out 2004, has reservations about it -- He will concentrate on appealing to tradi- Bayh could let Gore or Lieberman have not just the constitutionality tional Democratic constituencies without their shot without damaging his reputation of it, but also the likelihood having to do the jackass campaign stuff. by running a potentially weak race.” that there will be a court He will get his presidential career in sync NBC’s Lisa Myers noted on Meet challenge by groups such the Press last Sunday that Bayh “hasn’t as the Indiana with his Senate one -- facing re-election in Manufacturing Association 2004 and 2010, freeing him to possibly stood out in the Senate. It would be hard or the state Chamber of run for president in 2008 or 2012 when an to see how he’d run a national campaign.” Commerce, not to mention incumbent might not be involved. Bayh said his decision was not private or grass-roots orga- No one who has ever had a 5-year- based on whether his presidential candida- nizations. Carter's most old child can doubt Bayh’s sincerity about cy would be successful in 2004. Asked to cogent concern is the wanting to stay home more often than not assess the Bush presidency now and impact such litigation, over the next three years. Bayh already where it might be in 2003-04, Bayh which likely would take comes off as exceedingly mature when he explained, “You don’t want to do some- years to wind its way thing hopeless, but that wouldn’t have through courts and appeals, said, “If you’re going to run for any of could have on Indiana's these offices -- governor, senator, presi- been the case. I went through all the plus- economic development dent -- you can’t be conflicted. I knew I es and minuses, but the political factors future. "Anyone who would could be a good governor and a good would be unknowable. You run and you want to invest in property in father, and a good senator and a good let the political factors take care of them- Indiana, whether a home- father. It just wasn’t clear to me that I selves. No one in this country is bright owner or a business, at could run for president and be a good enough to tell you what the political fac- least this would be a prob- father.” tors will be in 2004.” lem they would have to con- His decision takes him away from a Bayh had also responded to a recent sider," Carter said. "You're collision with his mentor and friend, Sen. Indianapolis Star column where Larry looking at a worldwide situ- ation in terms of policy." Joe Lieberman. As Brownstein noted in MacIntyre had accused him of being a the L.A. Times, Bayh “faced an uncertain split political personality -- conservative Continued on page 3 course. Support among his natural con- in Indiana and liberal in Washington. Page 3 of 9 Thursday, June 21, 2001

Bayh’s decision coming this early has the different. potential of slamming the door shut on a Quayle came into the Senate on an potential GOP challenge in 2004 that ideological wave, worked in the majority could have come in a state where Bush for six years, and built a modestly good has been popular and would be seeking Senate legislative portfolio before he re-election. began tiring of life in the minority and Bayh can now work as a centrist away from the family dinner table. Bayh with Bush, shore up any of the “split per- entered the Senate with 10 years of execu- ELECTRIC DEREGULATION sonality” talk on the home front, drive tive experience, would be considered a OFF THE TABLE IN INDI- away any Republican challenger seeking pragmatic non-ideologue, grew up as a ANA: At least one legislator to exploit that element, avail himself to Senate kid used to the lifestyle and along is saying that because of the ‘04 national ticket as a centrist reach- with Susan Bayh has adapted the family the power crisis in ing out to Republicans and independents, needs. California, deregulating the electric industry in Indiana and readjust his national career timeline. Quayle is correct when he wrote in will be politically impossible Bayh said he had problems with his book Standing Firm, “The vice presi- for now. Indiana politicians letting the presidential speculation fester. dency isn’t an office you can campaign have discussed deregulat- “It wasn’t the honorable thing to do to my for -- in fact, any demonstration of eager- ing the electric retail market friends and supporters,” he said. “If in my ness for it is more likely to hurt than for years, but a Columbus heart I knew it wasn’t the right thing to help.” Quayle added, “But I had tried, as legislator and an economist do, to let people think it was wouldn’t be subtly as I could, to make it clear I was said the issue is off the honest. And No. 2, anything I’ve done in both qualified and available.” table, at least for the fore- my life I try to do 100 percent. I didn’t The fact is, Dan and Marilyn seeable future. Consumer and environmental groups want people to devaluate me and judge Quayle played the veep card extremely fear restructuring will raise me on the assumption that I was giving well and in a sense mastered their own prices, reduce reliability and my best effort when I wasn’t doing that.” destiny until James A. Baker called on eliminate incentives to con- As for whether he might run for the that sweltering August 1988 day in the serve energy. Twenty-four presidency in 2008 or 2012 when the kids Big Easy and not only took over their states have restructured: would be teenagers and face the fishbowl lives, but ultimately set the stage for ruin- Pennsylvania’s was very life that can severely impact presidential ing a fine political career. He had been successful; others, such as children, Bayh recalled that he was 20 plucked from relative obscurity. California’s, was disastrous. years old when his father, U.S. Sen. Birch Bayh’s team played the veep card Rep. David Yount, R- Bayh, ran for the presidency in 1976. in 2000 as subtly as the Quayles, clandes- Columbus, said Indiana will not restructure the retail tinely allowing friends, allies and the “You’ve got to make those decisions at market for the foreseeable the time they need to be made,” he said. press in on a little secret (psst, Evan might future, because House As for a potential vice presidential be available). Democrats have made clear nomination in 2004, when a three-year Bayh said that by not running, it that they oppose it. “It’s a campaign would be reduced to four will open up options. “There are unique moot point right now,” months, Bayh said he thought it would be opportunities in the Senate for centrists,” Yount said (Boris Ladwig, “presumptuous of me to put that out” but Bayh said. “It will be the centrists who Columbus Republic). went on to say “the determining factor in determine whether we get things done. Morton Marcus, an econo- my mind is that it wouldn’t be the same -- There is major education reform possible mist with Indiana Univer- sity’s Kelley School of an absence of just three months. At that because centrists stepped forward last year Business and director of and President Bush embraced it.” time, they will be three years older and Indiana Business Research the impact would not nearly be as great.” So now Bayh gets into the veep- Center, agreed. “I believe This is the territory where Hoosier stakes as a field of one for now. But he is that deregulation is now off observers might want to reflect on former the Midwesterner hailing from the politi- the table, because the prob- Vice President Dan Quayle. Other than cal breadbasket and heartland. And he’s lems (in California) have their paths crossing in Birch Bayh’s 1980 got destiny written all over him, just as scared politicians so that defeat of Quayle in a campaign Evan the Kennedy, Nixon, Kemp and Dole once they’re not thinking clearly.” Bayh managed, the two couldn’t be more did. " continued on page 4 Thursday, June 21, 2001 Page 4 of 9 Shifting at the Hoosier top What do the O’Bannon, Kernan chief of staff switches really mean? By BRIAN A. HOWEY and teamwork had to improve. There was INDIANAPOLIS - When the deep disappointment and even more fret- Ed Simcox, president of announcement came down last week that ting by the time legislators left town in Indiana Electric Gov. Frank O’Bannon’s chief of staff, Jim April. It was vocalized most publicly by Association, which repre- Maguire, was stepping aside and Tim House Ways and Means Chairman B. sents the state’s five public Joyce would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Joe Patrick Bauer, who told the South Bend electric utilities, added, Kernan’s office staff had to pause. Tribune after Gov. O’Bannon allowed the “The industry believes that For in the works was another biennial budget to become law without his at some point and in some form, restructuring will change, Kernan’s chief of staff, Mary signature, “For them not to support a bud- occur in Indiana.” Downes, was leaving that post, making get like this is really troublesome. I think way for Alan Degner. But the chief of this is so bizarre.” In fact, Bauer said, the EAST CHICAGO CONSUL- staff switches coming in tandem, Kernan budget had been designed in part to allow TANT SERVICES QUES- feared, would signal a very different kind Kernan to claim more successes. TIONED: Dozier T. Allen Jr., of shakeup from the one intended. a long-time friend of East Shakeup, as in the “heads are rolling, time Beneath the surface Chicago Mayor Robert to clean house” kind. Smoldering just beneath the surface Pastrick, signed a consult- “We had to wait a week,” said ing contract with the city of were dozens of legislators -- leaders and Kernan’s press aide, Tina Dennis. East Chicago for $10,416 a rank and file, along with friendly newspa- month in March 1999. The The official word from both the per editors and partisans -- who were city paid about $21,000 in O’Bannon and Kernan operations was that shaking heads at the variety of floated April and May that year, but these shifts were normal, after-the-long- lead balloons (cigarette tax hike), and didn’t pay any more until legislative-session switches when fatigued actions (no gubernatorial budget signa- March 31, 2000, well into the people move on. “Obviously you have an ture; veto of legislative pay raise) that spring campaign season. It election and transitions are expected and seemed to doom future O’Bannon initia- paid $52,000 then and paid certainly, if you review history, there’s tives seen as critical to future Democratic the balance of $52,000 after some transitioning that goes on after every electoral successes. The most crucial was a sweeping primary victory long session,” Joyce told HPR. “There for the county coroner nom- the reassessment card. could likely be some additional changes. ination by David Pastrick, Maguire’s departure was pegged for the mayor’s son (William They sort of come naturally.” family reasons His wife died in April Lazarus, Times of North- Kernan took great pains to paint the 2000, but he took the job just last January, west Indiana). Allen, same sort of picture. "This is a day I real- presenting a strange timeline. Calumet Township trustee, ly hoped would never come," said Kernan. Said one influential legislative strongly supported "Mary has been our team leader and the Democrat, “I don’t think his change had Pastrick’s candidacy, but glue that's held our office together. More all that much to do with the last session.” said that had “nothing what- importantly, she has been my close friend Legislative Democrats, this person said, soever” to do with his con- and trusted adviser. I had to convince “love the governor, they just feel he gets sulting contract. When Mary that moving here from South Bend questioned, he could not real bad advice from outside advisers, four and a half years ago was the right recall details of the advice who don’t like us.” he gave the city. Allen said thing to do." O’Bannon press aide Mary Dieter his consulting firm, Dozier Having said all that.... acknowledged that relationships with leg- T. Allen Jr. & Associates, While the O’Bannon and Kernan islators had deteriorated after the governor has advised at least half a operations worked the “normalcy” spin, vetoed the pay raise and refused to sign dozen candidates, He the persistent backdrop was that all was the budget, but cautioned against linking declined to name them. not well in the executive branch. There that with Maguire’s decision to leave. “As Allen insists his political was angst by key Democratic players after far as relationships with legislators go, we support of David Pastrick had "nothing whatsoever" the November 2000 election and going want to mend fences,” Dieter said. “The into the long session that communications governor’s actions that apparently irritated continued on page 5 Page 5 of 9 Thursday, June 21, 2001 them were necessary in his view to bal- Meltdowns on the way ance the budget. He wasn’t trying to pick Joyce and Degner are going to need a fight with lawmakers. He and they are their skills. As Pat Kiely of the Indiana aware of the $500 million structural Manufacturers Association noted, deficit.” “Certainly the winds of war are blowing. Joyce added, “Communications are The Kernan folks are feeling things close to do with his consulting critical and whether your partnership is in. Between now and 2004 the following East Chicago on personnel internal or external or with another branch will happen: Lake County’s financial matters. But, with one of government, if you’re going to be suc- structure will collapse, reassessment will exception, he could not cessful you’ve got to talk to people. If be worse than anticipated for homeown- recall the details of the either party misses an opportunity to share ers, the state will continue to underper- advice he gave. information, you’re going to have more form the forecast (at least this year); and BUSH APPOINTS difficulty. We’ll be taking measure of all the 2003 long session will be a real mess LENKOWSKY: President our relationships, if necessary, and en- unless something happens before then.” Bush has selected an hance them.” Kernan, with O’Bannon’s blessing Indiana University professor Another influential legislative according to Democratic sources, is work- to head a national volunteer Democrat wondered, “Did Joyce earn this ing to take control of most quasi-agencies agency (Fort Wayne Journal appointment or get it by default? Does he that have anything to do with economic Gazette). Leslie Lenkowsky, have any clout with Frank O’Bannon or is development so they can control the mes- a professor with the univer- sity's Center on Philan- it all with the outside boys?” sage. Said Kiely, “Nice thought -- won't thropy since 1997, will be work. 2004 will be about change and eco- chief executive of the High marks for Joyce, Degner nomic development. Joe may be a loser Corporation for National Whatever the reasons for the chief on both accounts.” Service. CNS is the parent of staff ascensions for Tim Joyce and organization of AmeriCorps Alan Degner, their new appointments Mixed bag last week and several other national were akin to a giant Tum (or Prevacid) to With all the behind-the-scenes rum- volunteer programs. He pre- viously was president of the fretting Democrats and partners. blings going on, the facade was a mixed Hudson Institute in 1990-97 “Tim Joyce gets high marks from picture. O’Bannon was getting roughed up and was president of the people, especially those inside the admin- by Senate President Pro Tem Bob Garton Institute for Educational istration who've thought there was no and the Indianapolis Star for flying in a Affairs in 1985-90. leadership coming out of the Governor's new $3.7 million King Air B200 turbo- office,” said one prominent lobbyist. “It's prop belonging to the Indiana State Police BUSH POPULARITY AT 55 interesting that Tim is one of the few instead of a 20-year-old Piper Cheyenne II PERCENT: A new poll taken Bayh holdovers who have made it in the that had spent 96 days in the shop last by the Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory O'Bannon administration, and he may be year getting fixed. shows 55 percent of the 800 the only high ranking gubernatorial aide And just as quickly as you can say registered voters polled who got the job because of merit and not “Mel Carnahan,” the latest IU Public statewide approve of because he's known Frank for years.” Opinion Laboratory Poll by Dr. Brian President Bush’s job perfor- Joyce has a reputation for being Vargus published in Wednesday’s Indiana- mance, while 26 percent organized and while certainly not ruthless, polis Star had O’Bannon’s approval rating disapprove and 19 percent is expected to operate in more of a disci- at 64 percent while 83 percent said had no opinion (Mary Beth plined mode that was seen from past “things are going well” in the great Schneider, Indianapolis gubernatorial chiefs such as Bill Moreau. Hoosier state. It also noted that only 25 Star). Brian Vargus, director of the public opinion labora- Degner, said former Gov. Orr aide percent paid attention to the legislature. tory, said Bush's approval John Hammond, was instrumental in orga- Of course, even Speaker John Gregg says rating in Indiana mirrors nizing and developing Indiana's newly most Hoosiers aren’t “educated” on national polls. Only two formed 21st Century Research and reassessment, East Chicago hasn’t gone presidents have received Technology Fund. “Al is very competent into default, and the 2003 property tax lower marks nationwide at and very deserving of this new challenge bills and all the subsequent checks have for him,” Hammond said. yet to hit the mail. " continued on page 6 Thursday, June 21, 2001 Page 6 of 9

Morton Marcus, Indianapolis ultimately muted all messages — regard- this point in their presiden- Business Journal - The press coverage of ing government excesses, the death penal- cies -- Bill Clinton, with 46 the state's new airplane exemplifies many ty and everything else. News and talk pro- percent early in his first of the problems that plague Indiana. grams have focused on McVeigh for term, and Gerald Ford, with Politicians and pretentious pundits have weeks. Television networks interrupted 42 percent. been critical of the Governor for allowing their schedules for extended coverage and a new plane to be bought when the state is hundreds of media representatives DELAWARE COUNTY descended upon Terre Haute for the SHERIFF SEEKS TO in a fiscal jam. These criticisms are on McVeigh execution early Monday. For a DEMOTE POTENTIAL SUC- the cusp between stupidity and hypocriti- CESSOR: Delaware County cal partisanship. Yet isn't this what we long time, I wanted to be in that number. Sheriff Steve Aul wants a have come to expect from Indiana? And then, some time before the bungling merit commission to disci- Foolhardy frugality in the name of FBI pushed the execution date back, my pline one of his depart- "responsible government." In this case it stomach began to turn. McVeigh's execu- ment's highest ranking offi- was Evan Bayh, that master of the genre, tion was turning into Woodstock II. It's cers. Aul announced he deciding to look "more conservative than only 65 miles to Terre Haute, but it looked was pursuing charges of thou," who sold the Governor's airplane like a bad trip to me. " neglect of duty, dishonesty, insubordination and willful and left his successor with inadequate air misconduct unbecoming an transportation. But Frank O'Bannon could Sylvia Smith, Fort Wayne Journal officer against Major Gary do nothing about it without looking like a Gazette - Let's say Bayh had waited until Campbell. Campbell claimed spendthrift. By the time the problem next year to make his decision known. Aul hoped to demote him so verged on a crisis, Indiana had done its The headlines would no doubt have been he could promote Don usual thing. We had accepted lower taxes "Bayh withdraws from presidential con- Scroggins' nephew, county rather than making needed capital invest- test." By 2002, the presidential con- police Capt. Michael ments. Rather than taking care of our tenders would have made enough visits to Scroggins, to the rank of assets, we allowed the state's airplanes to major. In September 1999, Iowa and New Hampshire, made enough Michael Scroggins replaced deteriorate to the point where they could speeches, appeared on enough Sunday Campbell as the depart- not serve us appropriately. Now Governor morning talk shows and raised enough ment's uniform division O'Bannon is taking heat from the press money that it would be silly to think the commander. "It's all about and the opposition for doing something intraparty competition wasn't in full politics," said Campbell needed several years ago. But why criti- swing. Leaving at that point would have (T.J. Wilham, Muncie Star cize the Governor? He has been a good made Bayh look like a loser. For a politi- Press). "I will spend my last Hoosier. He held back from doing any- cian who has never lost a campaign he has dollar fighting this thing. It's thing that would appear to be as bold as entered, this would have been a harsh pill just wrong." Campbell said prudent." he was considering running to swallow. Remember Dan Quayle? After for sheriff in 2002. Another the 2000 race, it strains credulity to think likely candidate is Don Mike Leonard, Bloomington Herald- he'd ever be back at the top of GOP poli- Scroggins. Campbell said Times - Overkill. The word could describe tics. Bayh would not want this written he was accused, among Timothy McVeigh's unconscionable about him: "Hamstrung by a limp money- other things, of allowing bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal raising operation, Dan Quayle will inmates on a work-release Building in Oklahoma City six years ago. announce today that he is abandoning his crew to smoke and remov- It clearly captures the mass media atten- race for the White House.” Bayh may ing his gun belt while using have been motivated by parental love and the restroom. tion paid to the execution of a man who killed 168 people for the primary purpose responsibility, but his decision was politi- WEATHERWAX RESPONDS of gaining a forum for his opinions. cally savvy and demonstrates why he Funny how the abundance of coverage ought not be underestimated. " Page 7 of 9 Thursday, June 21, 2001 Indiana 2002, 2003 Racing Form TRENDLINE: Stuart Rothenberg writes in The Rothenberg Political Report, “Our redistricting analysis suggests that the Republicans are positioned to pick up a few districts -- most likely 2 to 4 -- because of reapportionment. If President Bush’s popularity sinks, either because of the economy, the energy situation or the general TO FRY: The man who mod- perception that he is ineffective or too ideological, swing voters will likely turn erated a meeting that drew toward Democratic congressional candidates. That, combined with a Democratic an unusual amount of turnout advantage, could well be enough to give the Democrats control of the House. statewide attention on power “But if Bush’s popularity holds and the GOP -- including House Republicans realizes his own political -- can claim credit for significant legislative accomplishments, the president’s party power status probably had will have a good chance of holding onto something to do with critical its narrow House majority. Historical comments by a St. Joseph trends favor some sort of Democratic mid- County legislator (Dave Kitchell, Logansport Pharos- term gain. But the Republicans have now Tribune). State Sen. Tom lost House seats in three straight elections, suggesting that many of their weaker Weatherwax, R-Logansport, incumbents have already been weeded out. GOP incumbents who won in 1996, 1998 the only potential Republican and 2000 have already demonstrated political staying power.” candidate in the new 2nd Secretary of State 2002: Republican: Mike Delph, Deputy Secretary of State Congressional District who Todd Rokita, Richard Mourdock, Luke Messer, Paul Helmke. Democrat: Bloomington Mayor resides in the district, said John Fernandez. Libertarian: Paul Hager. 1994 Results: Gilroy (R) 902,100, Jeffers (D) criticism of his involvement 542,539, Dillon (L) 32,483, Knight (A) 13,948. 1998 Results: Gilroy 828,557, Little (D) in the Northern Indiana 652,565, Dillon (L) 51,775. 2002 Forecast: We were corrected on Hager’s need to get what Energy Summit here Tues- we said was 5 percent of the vote in order for the Libertarians to automatically qualify for day had more to do with poli- statewide offices. Hager would need to poll 2 percent. Status: Tossup. tics than the positions he Congressional District 2: Republican: Chris Chocola, State Sen. Thomas has taken on energy issues. Weatherwax. Democrat: Jill Long Thompson, Mark Meissner, Rep. Pat Bauer. Geography: State Rep. Craig Fry, D- South Bend, Michigan City, Mishawaka, Elkhart, Kokomo, Plymouth, Logansport; LaPorte, St. Mishawaka, criticized Joseph, Starke, Marshall, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass, Carroll and parts of Howard, Porter, Elkhart Weatherwax in an Associa- and White counties. Media Market: South Bend-Elkhart, Indianapolis, Lafayette, Chicago. ted Press story earlier this 2000 Result: Roemer (D) 107,076, Chocola (R) 98,367. 2002 Forecast: Democratic sources month and in a guest column tell HPR that House Ways & Means Chairman B. Patrick Bauer is weighing this race and will distributed to newspapers. be polling in the near future. Bauer’s interest comes after House Speaker John Gregg opted out "I think that's a very fair of the 8th CD race. Bauer, seeing that the Speaker’s job is not likely to come open for another statement," said Weatherwax four years, is now exploring a Congressional run. HPR believes that ultimately, Bauer will in response to questions pass on this race. He is currently frustrated with the O’Bannon-Kernan administration and is about Fry's political motives. experiencing legislature fatigue. In order for Bauer to run, he would have to believe the "I've been told by people that Democratic chances are excellent for taking over the U.S. House. Otherwise, Bauer would be know that some of this has looking at going from a kingpin in the Indiana General Assembly to a freshman in a been driven by the national Congressional minority party -- not a good move from his perspective. Local Democrats will Democratic Party because of attempt to convince Bauer that he can better serve St. Joseph County in the legislature, but that situation or opportunity even there the Democratic hold on the House majority will be tenuous over the next two elec- that was presented. I didn't tion cycles due to demographics and the new maps. Another factor is that Bauer has always approach it that way, but yet had relatively easy elections in his current district. Some wonder whether he has the so-called now that I think back at fire in the belly to run an intense Congressional campaign in a sprawling, competitive district. what's happening, I think On the plus side for a Congressional run, HPR believes that Bauer’s chances of becoming there might be more to it speaker when Gregg eventually moves on are not good. Being chairman of Ways & Means has than meets the eye." In his meant telling a lot of colleagues “No!” over the years and a run for speaker will mean payback opening remarks, Weather- time for many of his colleagues. He was out-hustled by Gregg in the hours after the 1994 elec- wax said he hoped other tion, but even if Gregg hadn’t beaten him to the votes, Bauer might not have won that race due cities in the state would fol- to the No! factor. If Bauer gets in, it totally changes the dynamic of this race. At this point, we low suit by hosting public continued on page 8 continued on page 8 Thursday, June 21, 2001 Page 8 of 9

see JLT as an overwhelming frontrunner for the Dem nomination. A Bauer entry would mean an intense nomination battle, though we still would see JLT as the person to beat. On the Repub- lican side, Chocola unveiled his internet website at www.chocolaforcongress.com. "I am excited to get our campaign's new website up and running this early," Chocola said. During Chocola's 2000 campaign, nearly 40,000 visitors logged onto his campaign's website. Status: Leans Long Thompson. discussions on energy issues. In a comment Congressional District 3: Republican: U.S. Rep. Mark Souder. Democrat: Weatherwax said he made Rodney Scott, Jay Rigdon. Geography: Fort Wayne, Goshen; Kosciusko, Whitley, LaGrange, as a poke back at Fry, he Steuben, DeKalb and parts of Elkhart and Allen counties. Media Market: South Bend-Elkhart, said, "Even South Bend Fort Wayne. 2000 results: Souder (R) 131,051, Foster (D) 74,492. 2002 Forecast: From new may 'see the light.'" highways to a TV studio to breast cancer research to a peace project with Northern Ireland -- Weatherwax is not an Souder has asked Congress to send more than $650 million to projects he says will help north- announced candidate for east Indiana and communities all over the state (Sylvia Smith, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). The the open 2nd District seat, big-dollar requests are for more defense-project spending than President Bush has proposed. For but has indicated an inter- instance, Souder wants the lawmakers who allocate federal spending to approve $115 million for est. special radios for the Army National Guard. The radios - SINCGARs - are made in Fort Wayne by ITT Aerospace Communications Division. Souder ranked that request as his top priority. O’BANNON ALLOWS BEER Status: Safe R. RULE TO EXPIRE: Gov. Congressional District 4: Republican: U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer, U.S. Rep. Brian Frank O'Bannon intends to Kerns, State Sen. Mike Young. Democrat: Open. Geography: Tippecanoe, Clinton, Boone, let a long-standing adminis- Montgomery, Hendricks, Morgan, Lawrence and parts of Marion, Johnson, Monroe, Fountain trative rule expire this year and White counties. Media Market: Lafayette, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Evansville, and allow breweries to Louisville. 2000 Results: Old 5th CD: Buyer (R) 132,035, Goodnight (D) 81,423; Old 7th establish exclusive territo- CD: Kerns 131,562, Graf (D) 65,174.. 2002 Forecast: The IU Public Opinion Laboratory con- ries for the distribution of ducted a poll in the new 4th CD and found Republican voters favored Buyer with 33.5 percent; beer in Indiana (Associated Kerns with 11.9 percent and Young with 5.2 percent (Schneider, Indianapolis Star). A whopping Press). The move 49.5 percent were undecided. Status: Safe R. announced Tuesday Congressional District 5: Republican: U.S. Rep. Dan Burton. Democrat: Open. sparked a new round of Geography: Indianapolis, Kokomo, Marion, Shelbyville; Wabash, Huntington, Howard, Grant, controversy in a decades- Tipton, Hamilton, Hancock and parts of Marion, Johnson and Shelby counties. Media Market: old debate on the "beer Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Lafayette. 2000 Results: Burton (R) 194,771, Griesey (D) 72,821, baron" regulation, an issue Hauptmann (L) 8,874. 2002 Forecast: Burton finds himself in the midst of controversy once that has long divided law- again. This time, it’s over the House Oversight Committee’s “use of prosecutorial power in the makers and beer makers, investigation of Joseph M. Gerstein.” Both Mary Beth Schneider in the Indianapolis Star and distributors and retailers. James Warren of the Chicago Tribune featured the case in their columns last Sunday. Warren The General Assembly wrote, “With Burton’s beaming portrait hovering over him, Connecticut’s earnest and moderate passed legislation in 1989 (Christopher) Shays stepped in to oversee a four-hour hearing of such dispiriting ignominy that that would have overridden he can knock on wood it went virtually uncovered by the media. What it proved to be was a a 1979 Alcoholic Beverage mountain of innuendo and hyperbole that so crumbled in the face of facts.” Both Warren and Commission rule, with then- Schneider said that Burton’s ultimate target is former Attorney General Janet Reno, who is Lt. Gov. Frank O’Bannon weighing a run against Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. While Burton’s committee has launched another casting the tie-breaking investigation, on the home front we don’t detect of stirring of any interest by a credible candi- vote. That allowed exclusive date to challenge him, either Republican or Democratic. Status: Safe R. beer sales territories, but it Indianapolis Mayoral 2003: Republican: Sheriff Jack Cottey. Democrat: Mayor was vetoed by Gov. Bayh. Bart Peterson. 1999 Results: Peterson (D) 102,870, Gilroy (R) 83,044, Horning (L) 7,772, Gibson (I) 2,145. 1995 Results: Goldsmith (R) 65,868, Jimison (D) 39,539, Dillon (L) 7,175. SUPREME COURT ASKED 2003 Forecast: Ask any Indianapolis Republican of merit who will be the party’s 2003 chal- TO SUSPEND LAKE COUN- lenger to Mayor Peterson and all you get is woeful looks, murmurs and a shake of the head. TY AUDITOR’S LAW Prosecutor Scott Newman, Rep. Paul Mannweiler and Sen. Murray Clark all appear to have LICENSE: A state hearing ruled out a run, and that’s the cream of the crop. Sheriff Cottey has been active, trying to devel- officer is asking the Indiana op relationships with African-American pastors after his race-baiting tactics at the end of the ‘99 Supreme Court to immedi- Gilroy campaign. While Goldsmith’s totals fell from 110,545 in 1991 to 65,868 in 1995, and ately suspend the law Gilroy’s was halfway between, it would be an absolutely astounding development for the GOP license of Lake County not to have a credible challenger in this race. HPR figured this would be a competitive situation Auditor Peter Benjamin for the next two or three cycles, but maybe not. Status: LEANS D - Brian A. Howey because of what he called a Page 9 of 9 Thursday, June 21, 2001 Hoosiers serve as trade touchstone By MARK SCHOEFF JR. tion. Buyer backs tougher environmental WASHINGTON - If President Bush standards for developing countries and is going to gain congressional approval to supports training and assistance programs strengthen his hand in trade negotiations, for dislocated workers. Rep. Brian Kerns pattern of cheating clients he'll have to convince Democrats like (R-7th CD), Buyer's opponent in the new and lying to cover up unethi- Rep. Tim Roemer (D-3rd CD) and 4th CD primary, backs fast track. cal behavior (Bill Dolan, Republicans like Rep. Steve Buyer (R-5th A new president has created a new Times of Northwest Indiana). CD) to give him fast-track trade authority. atmosphere for trade, according to Buyer. Hilbert L. Bradley, a veteran This week the president began his "It was President Clinton who violated the civil rights lawyer who heard push for fast track, which would prevent fidelity of NAFTA by not following 31 witnesses and examined Congress from modifying trade agree- through on side agreements," he said. dozens of documents con- ments, allowing votes only on the whole Buyer said that cerning Benjamin's integrity at the request of the high package. Proponents say that the rule thousands of court this spring, said facilitates trade negotiations because it jobs were lost Benjamin was guilty of bor- assures foreign countries that Congress at Monon rowing clients' money without won't change pacts. Fast track, which has Corp. in his their knowledge. In recom- been granted to every president since district in the mid-1990s after Clinton mendations made public Gerald Ford until 1994, has been dubbed failed to implement an agreement on the Monday, Bradley also "trade promotion authority" by the Bush length of tractor trailers permitted to cross accused Benjamin of skip- administration. the Mexican and Canadian borders. ping mandatory continuing Centrist Democrats in the closely With the Republicans holding slim education seminars and lying divided House and Senate might hold edge in the House and Democrats main- repeatedly to cover up his misconduct. Benjamin, sway. "They will probably be the deter- taining a thin Senate margin, Bush needs reached at his law office in mining bloc of votes," said Roemer, who all the votes he can get. In a move some Merrillville, where he faces is co-chairman of the 60-member House saw as an effort to woo Democrats con- eviction for nonpayment of New Democrat Coalition. cerned about trade's effect on jobs and rent, said Monday afternoon, But Roemer, like U.S. Sen. Evan wages, Bush requested an investigation by "Obviously, I'm extremely dis- Bayh, is undecided on fast track. Roemer the International Trade Commission into appointed." voted in favor of granting permanent nor- allegations that foreign producers are sell- mal trade relations (PNTR) to China last ing steel below cost on the U.S. market. GUIDE WILL PAY $13.9 MIL- year and also supported trade agreements But Bush's effort didn't make one LION TO RESTORE WHITE with countries in the Caribbean and with of steel's biggest proponents more recep- RIVER: Gov. Frank O'Bannon announced that Guide Corp. tive to fast track. "They're two indepen- Africa. Bayh previously opposed fast will pay $13.937 million to track and NAFTA. His position on trade dent questions," said Rep. Pete Visclosky settle the state and federal legislation is based on the impact it will (D-1st CD). "I remain exceedingly con- lawsuit against the corpora- have on jobs, whether education and train- cerned about labor and environmental tion, as well as plead guilty to ing is made available for workers who aspects of any new trade agreement. We federal criminal charges, in lose their jobs, and how well it integrates must ensure that consultation with Cong- connection with the the U.S. into the global economy. "When ress goes beyond a 'yes/no' vote," he said. December 1999 chemical those stars align, I've voted for trade." But Although they may not convince release that killed five million he's concerned about cuts in the Bush Visclosky to back fast track, business fish in the White River. Guide, budget to Commerce Department worker advocates have made bipartisan outreach an Anderson auto parts man- ufacturer, will pay criminal a priority. "We expect to be working with retraining programs. and civil penalties, restitution Buyer also has split his votes on the New Democrats," said John Schachter, and payments for restoration trade, backing GATT and NAFTA but of the Business Roundtable, a coalition of of the White River. It also will opposing China PNTR and the previous more than 300 companies and associa- plead guilty to seven counts fast track bill. "Right now I'm a lean yes," tions. "Labor and the environment are of criminal negligence. " he said in reference to fast track. He critical, and the question is how to deal wants to see the details of the labor and with them, not whether," he said. " environmental provisions of the legisla-