Contact: Thomas Riehle 202-463-7300 [email protected] Public Release Date: January 27, 2003

Democratic Presidential Primary/Caucus Participants Prove Fickle at This Stage: Very Few Demand Hillary, But Plurality Picks Her When Given Option

Cook Political Report/Ipsos-Reid Survey Asks Likely Democratic Presidential Primary/Caucus Participants First Choice among Likely Candidates, Then Asks What Voters Would Do if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) Runs

Only 2% Volunteer Senator as Their Choice, But When Given the Option, Many Defect From First Choice and 46% Back Her

Between January 7-9,2003 and January 21-23,2003, Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs interviewed for Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,008 adults nationwide. That yielded 454 Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents who indicated they were likely to participate in the Democratic caucus or primary for President in 2004. The margin of error for likely Democratic Presidential primary/caucus participants is ± 4.6%..

WASHINGTON, D.C., (January 27, 2003) — New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is the easy winner with 46% of the vote when likely participants in the Democratic Presidential primaries and caucuses are asked whether they would stay with their first choice or switch to Clinton, should she decide to run. But that does not mean likely voters in the Democratic nomination contest are going out of their way to insist that Clinton join the contest—in fact, only 2% initially volunteer that their first choice is Clinton, when asked to choose from among the seven candidates who have already announced or indicated serious plans to do so.

When given the choice of Senator Clinton, 46% choose her, compared with 12% for Senator , 8% for Senator (and 2000 Vice Presidential nominee) Joe Lieberman, and 8% for former U.S. House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt. Candidates Edwards, Dean and Sharpton trail, as does potential candidate Graham.

Initially, the Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll asked Democratic nomination contest likely voters to choose among seven announced or likely-to-announce candidates for a first choice, not including Clinton. After that, poll participants were asked whether they would stick with their first choice or switch to Clinton if the New York Senator chose to run for President in 2004. “Clinton clearly dominates over the field, but the absence of initial volunteered support for her suggests her position can be attributed to the weakness of voter loyalties toward their first choice candidates, and not to any desire to see Clinton run. The race is early, loyalties are soft, and most of the announced candidates have not locked down their base in the nomination contest sufficiently at this point,” says Thomas Riehle, President of Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs.

Frontrunner Kerry and back-of-the-pack candidate Dean prove best at retaining the loyalties of their voters. Gephardt supporters also prove relatively loyal. More than half of those initially supporting Lieberman, Edwards, Graham and Sharpton switch to Clinton if given that explicit choice.

First Choice for Democratic Presidential Nomination, and Preference if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) Chooses to Run

First Choice Reconsidered (Without (If Clinton Runs Clinton) in 2004)

Base: Democrat Supporters or Leaners who will Participate in the Democratic primary or caucus

Volunteer N.Y. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as first choice 2% --

Prefer New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton over first choice -- 46%

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry 19% 12%

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman 19% 8%

Ex-House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt 13% 8%

North Carolina Senator 10% 4%

Former Governor 3% 2%

Florida Senator 5% 2%

New York Activist 5% --

Other/ None/ Not Sure 24% 17%

For more information on this release, please contact:

Thomas Riehle President Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs 202.463.7300 [email protected]

About Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs

The survey was conducted by Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, which is the world’s fourth largest polling and market research organization, based in Paris. Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling . It was established in Washington in August 2001, and it is led by Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington. The Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll and the Ipsos-Reid Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index poll are usually conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service.

The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. has called the publication, “a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative” while the dean of the Washington political press corps, ’s David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, “perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation.” Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network’s show “Inside Politics.” Researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C., the Cook Political Report’s subscribers are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation’s major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.