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Belarusian Foreign Policy: 360° Editor: Andis Kudors vaks_09.pdf 1 17.05.2017 11:55:02 E d i t o r: An Belarusian d is Kudors is Kudors Foreign Policy: Editor: Andis Kudors 360° B e l a r usian F o r e i g n P o l i cy: 360° Belarusian Foreign Policy: 360° Editor: Andis Kudors The Centre for East European Policy Studies University of Latvia Press Rīga, 2017 This project was implemented by the Centre for East European Policy Studies with the support of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Editor: Andis Kudors Assistant to the editor: Anna Lasmane Authors of the articles: Alena Artsiomenka, Petro Burkovsky, Māris Cepurītis, Aleksandr Golts, Ainārs Lerhis, Alla Leukavets, Dzianis Melyantsou, Dovile Šukyte, Diāna Potjomkina, Nora Vanaga, Andrey Yeliseyeu English language editor: Emily Kernot www.endtoendediting.com Layout: Ieva Tiltiņa Cover design: Agris Dzilna © Alena Artsiomenka, Petro Burkovsky, Māris Cepurītis, Aleksandr Golts, Ainārs Lerhis, Alla Leukavets, Dzianis Melyantsou, Dovile Šukyte, Diāna Potjomkina, Nora Vanaga, Andrey Yeliseyeu, 2017 © The Centre for East European Policy Studies, 2017 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2017 ISBN 978-9934-8292-3-9 Table of Contents Andis Kudors Introduction 5 Part I: Identity and Domestic Politics Ainārs Lerhis The History of Belarus: Multiply Identities 11 Alla Leukavets Belarusian Domestic Politics and its Influence on Foreign Policy 27 Part II: Region and Beyond Dzianis Melyantsou Belarus–EU Relations: Normalization 2 0 45 Nora Vanaga The Defence Policy of Belarus: A Regional Perspective 57 Part III: Belarus and Russia: Bilateral Relations Māris Cepurītis Belarusian Political Relations with Russia after the Annexation of Crimea 73 Aleksandr Golts Belarus and Russia: Military Cooperation but with Different Goals 87 Alena Artsiomenka Media, Culture and Soft Power in Relations between Belarus and Russia 101 Part IV: Belarus and Neighbors Petro Burkovsky Ukrainian–Belarusian Relations from 2014 and Beyond: Using Good Chances and Looking for Better Times 117 Diāna Potjomkina, Dovilė Šukytė Belarus and the Baltics: Did Crisis Really Become an Opportunity? 139 Andrei Yeliseyeu The Poland–Belarus Relationship: Geopolitics Gave New Impetus, but no Breakthrough 159 Andis Kudors Conclusion 175 Notes on Authors 179 Introduction “But if there are some smart pants here believing that the land of Belarus is, as they say, a part of the Russian world or nearly of Russia itself — forget it! We welcome everyone, but we will also teach everyone to respect our sovereignty and independence.” /Alyaksandr Lukashenka, press conference, 29 January 2015/ “But I will say to all Westerners directly: both the European Union and US understand me when I am telling — look, guys, you must know it and we do not conceal it — if, for God’s sake something will go wrong — we’ll stand side by side with Russia. This is our ally!” /Alyaksandr Lukashenka, address to the National Assembly, 29 April 2015/ Straight after the illegitimate annexation of Crimea in 2014 the internal and external policy of Belarus experienced a renewed, focused attention by foreign experts and politicians The breach of more than one international norm created anxiousness among Russia’s closest partners within the CIS integration projects — Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as in the North Eastern flank of NATO — the Baltic countries The idea of sister nations, destined to “stay together forever” — Ukrainians and Russians, did not protect the former from aggression by the latter Curiously, Vladimir Putin used this cultural and ethnic link to authorize the annexation, i e the aggression against Ukraine In his speech before members of the State Duma and the Federation Council of 18 March 2014, Putin pronounced: “[…] we are not just close neighbours, in fact, as I have told for many times, we are the same people Kyiv is the mother of the Russian cities The Ancient Rus is our common source and we cannot get along without each other ”1 These words expressed promptly after taking Crimea showed a level of unthinkable cynicism; this can be compared to a situation 1 “Обращение Президента Российской Федерации”, 18 March 2014, accessed May 3, 2017, http://kremlin ru/events/president/news/20603 5 Belarusian Foreign Policy: 360° where a perpetrator explains his violence against the victim out of emotional and cultural closeness Russian propagandists named Georgians ‘brothers’, pointing to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and the ‘evil political elite’ of Georgia as the source of the problem, because the two peoples themselves are mutual friends In 2015 the president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, mentioned the no- tion of ‘the Russian world’ several times in his communication with Belarusian media and politicians, mainly expressing a negative attitude towards this culturally geopolitical concept, which presumes unification of Russia with some of its neighbours as a supranational entity with Moscow in its centre The ideas of ‘the Russian world’ as soft power, with Russian culture as the main tool of public diplomacy, have evolved into legitimization for the aggression against Ukraine In the afore-mentioned speech of 18 March 2014, Putin points out that transferring Crimea to Russia is not just the unification of historic Russian lands, but the uniting of ‘the Russian world’ 2 As Marelne Laruelle notes, the use of the geopolitical, historical and ethnic ideas of ‘the Russian world’ to legitimize the annexation of Crimea places the whole concept from the realm of soft power to the reality of hard power 3 The negative attitude of the president of Belarus is understandable — when mentioning ‘the Russian world’ he emphasizes the need to respect the sovereignty and independence of Belarus Although he has taken steps towards ‘soft Belarusization’ after the annexation of Crimea, and sharply criticised Russia’s price-forming policy on energy resources, the West should have no illusions about the real space of manoeuvre for the foreign policy of Belarus Another quote by Lukashenka at the beginning of this book reminds us that official Minsk is clearly aware of the special role Belarus plays in regional foreign and security policy of Russia The manoeuvres by the Belarusian president have strictly set strategic limits; trespassing them would evoke an aggressive reaction by Russia against Minsk One could just imagine what would unfold if Minsk announced its intention one day to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) The unreformed Belarusian economy is very dependent on Russia’s benevolence, translated into special prices for energy supplies The space of manoeuvre for Mr Lukashenka is indeed quite limited The Centre for Eastern European Policy Studies has invited researchers from several countries to analyse relations between Belarus and its neighbouring 2 “Обращение Президента Российской Федерации”, 18 March 2014, accessed May 3, 2017, http://kremlin ru/events/president/news/20603 3 Laruelle M , The “Russian World”, Russia’s Soft Power and Geopolitical Imagination, Center on Global Interests, 2015, 24, accessed April 11, 2017, http://globalinterests org/wp-content/ uploads/2015/05/FINAL-CGI_Russian-World_Marlene-Laruelle pdf 6 Introduction countries This collection of articles is comprised following the geographical principle as well as to outline the main topical directions of Belarusian foreign policy The authors have studied the bilateral relations between Belarus and its neighbours: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia — keeping the main focus on the period after the illegitimate annexation of Crimea in 2014 On a bilateral level, Belarus–Russia military cooperation, political climate and soft power are reviewed as distinct themes The opening section of the collection of articles is devoted to history, na tio nal identity and domestic policy issues Ainārs Lerhis gives an insight of his to rical twists and turns that have formed the Belarusian identity His article is a valuable compilation of facts and interpretations allowing the reader to look at those historical turning points which have directly or indirectly in flu en ced foreign policy choices of the present day Belarus The first chapter also includes the article by Alla Leukavets about the institutional framework and decision-making practices of Belarusian internal and external policies, giving the possibility of com pre hending the fundamentals of Belarus’ political system, which significantly affect the foreign policy priorities of the country A Leukavets continues the well accustomed discussion about foreign policy study with the question — does the authoritarian character (type) of domestic policy necessarily determine foreign policy priorities and their implementation? The articles in the second chapter focus on the regional dimension of the foreign policy of Belarus, including its relations with the EU (Dzianis Me- lyan tsou) and reactions by NATO’s nearest Member States to Belarusian defence activities, especially in the context of the upcoming military exercise Zapad 2017 (Nora Vanaga) The third chapter reviews bilateral Russia–Belarus rela tions in their political (Māris Cepurītis), military (Aleksandr Golts) and soft power dimensions (Alena Artsiomenka). The concluding fourth part follows the de- velo pment of bilateral relations between Belarus and its neighbours — Ukraine (Petro Burkovsky), Latvia and Lithuania (Diāna Potjomkina and Dovile Šukyte respectively) and
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