IN SEARCH of NEW OPPORTUNITIES Circular Migration Between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – State of Play and Prospects for Cooperation

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IN SEARCH of NEW OPPORTUNITIES Circular Migration Between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – State of Play and Prospects for Cooperation IN SEARCH OF NEW OPPORTUNITIES Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – state of play and prospects for cooperation Edited by Agnieszka Kulesa and Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz With contributions from Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský and Andrei Yeliseyeu © CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw 2021 Graphic design: Differ Designs Tomasz Mostowski ISBN: 978-83-7178-705-8 (print), 978-83-7178-706-5 (online) Publisher CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research Al. Jana Pawła II 61/212 01-031 Warsaw Poland tel. +48 222 062 900 [email protected] www.case-research.eu This publication was developed in the frame of the project “CIRCMIGR: Improving circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and Czechia” (Standard Grant Agreement no. 21930098) co-fi- nanced by the Governments of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia through Visegrad Grants from International Visegrad Fund. The mission of the fund is to advance ideas for sustainable regional cooperation in Central Europe. Partners IN SEARCH OF NEW OPPORTUNITIES Circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – state of play and prospects for cooperation Edited by Agnieszka Kulesa and Piotr Kaźmierkiewicz With contributions from Ivan Lichner, Šárka Prát, Marek Radvanský and Andrei Yeliseyeu CASE CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research is an independent, non-profit research institute founded on the idea that research-based policy-making is vital for the economic welfare of societies. Established in Warsaw in 1991, CASE today is recognized as the top think tank in Central and Eastern Europe and is one of the most highly regarded think tanks internationally. CASE carries out policy- oriented research and development assistance projects, specialising in the areas of growth and trade, fiscal policy, labour and social policy, and innovation, energy and climate. Drawing on an experienced in-house staff, a network of fellows, and a database of approximately 1,000 experts, CASE provides rigorous quantitative and qualitative analyses, innovative methodologies, and sound recommendations. Contents Introduction...........................................................................................................................................................5 Executive summary ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������7 1. BELARUS 12 1.1. Circular migration of Belarusian nationals in 2010-2019..........................................................................12 1.1.1. Scale of circular migration ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12 1.1.2. Estimating the volume of Belarusian out-migration �������������������������������������������������������������������������14 1.1.3. Determinants of migration and Belarus’s political crisis ������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 1.2 Labour market and demographic situation in 2010-2019 and beyond ��������������������������������������������������18 1.3 Policy responses.......................................................................................................................................... 22 Recommendations �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 27 References ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 29 2. POLAND 32 2.1. Short-term labour immigration 2010-2019 ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32 2.1.1. Background: immigration dynamics 2010-2017 ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32 2.1.2. Analysis of recent immigration trends 2018-2019 �������������������������������������������������������������������������� 34 2.1.3. The simplified system ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 36 2.1.4. Work permits.........................................................................................................................................41 2.2. Labour market needs in 2010-2019 and beyond ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 42 2.3. Policy responses ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 2.3.1. Strategic framework ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 45 2.3.2. Legal ways of taking up employment in Poland by nationals of the Republic of Belarus ��������� 47 2.3.3. Polish Card �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������51 2.3.4. Facilitation of short-term mobility ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 52 2.4. Prospects for circular migration cooperation with Belarus ������������������������������������������������������������������ 54 Recommendations �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 57 References ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 58 Contents 3. CZECH REPUBLIC 64 3.1. Short-term labour immigration 2010-2019 ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 64 3.1.1. Statistical trends for Belarusian migration ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 64 3.1.2. The profile of circular migrants ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������67 3.2. Labour market demands between 2010-2019 and beyond ������������������������������������������������������������������69 3.3. Policy responses ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 70 3.3.1. Migration policy ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 70 3.3.2. Management of circular migration ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 71 3.3.3. Relevant policy instruments ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 73 3.3.4. Social security and health insurance �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������75 3.4. Prospects for circular migration cooperation with Belarus �������������������������������������������������������������������75 Recommendations ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������79 References ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 4. SLOVAKIA 86 4.1. Short-term labour immigration 2010-2019 ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 86 4.1.1. Background: general overview ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 86 4.1.2. Migration stocks and flows ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 89 4.1.3. Belarusians in Slovakia ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 90 4.2. Labour market needs in 2010-2019 and beyond ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 92 4.3. Policy responses ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 94 4.3.1. Migration strategy ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 94 4.3.2. Recent policy developments ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 95 4.3.3. Legal labour migration framework ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������96 4.4. Prospects for circular migration cooperation with Belarus �������������������������������������������������������������������99 Recommendations �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������103 References ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������105 Notes on the contributors �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������107 5 Introduction We are pleased to present this report on circu- Slovakia, and the
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