PERMANENT OR CIRCULAR MIGRATION? Policy Choices to Address Demographic Decline and Labour Shortages in Europe Editors Elmar Hönekopp Heikki Mattila Assistant Editor Alin Chindea English Language Editor Mark Griffi th April 2008 The authors prepared this report as independent consultants to the International Organization for Migration. Opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect the views of IOM. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefi ts migrants and society. As an intergovernmental body, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration: advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. Publisher: International Organization for Migration (IOM) Regional Mission for Central and South Eastern Europe 1065 Budapest, Révay utca 12, HUNGARY Tel: +36 1 472 2500; Fax: +36 1 374 0532 Email: [email protected]; Web site: http://www.iom.hu Graphic Design and Printing: Strém Kiadóház Ltd © 2008 International Organization for Migration (IOM) ISBN 978 92 9068 444 2 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission from the publisher. T ABLE OF CONTENTS List of Contributors 5 Introduction 7 Population and labour force forecasts for selected European countries: assumptions and results 11 1.1 Background and assumptions of population and labour force forecast 2004–2054 11 1.2 The futures of population and labour force in selected European countries 22 1.3 Critical assessment of results and conclusions 30 The Czech Republic 35 2.1 Population developments 36 2.2 Labour market developments 38 2.3 Migration and employment of migrants 41 2.4 Free movement of labour within the EU 53 2.5 Real and potential brain drain – the Czech labour market 55 2.6 Political discussions of migration and the labour market 58 2.7 Main stakeholders in economic migration and its management 60 2.8 International aid 61 2.9 Recruitment programmes as examples of active policy 62 2.10 Conclusions 64 2.11 Recommendations 66 Hungary 73 3.1 Historical background 73 3.2 Demographic developments 75 3.3 Labour market developments 75 3.4 Migration and the employment of migrants 83 3.5 Formulating migration policies 97 3.6 Conclusions 104 Italy 109 4.1 The economic and social system at a glance 110 4.2 The dynamics of immigration 113 4.3 Migrants’ insertion into the labour market 120 4.4 Population, labour force trends and immigration 133 4.5 Migration policy 137 RSTTTT 3 Poland 149 5.1 Labour market developments 150 5.2 Migration and employment of migrants 158 5.3 Formulating migration policies: changes in the making 166 Portugal 183 6.1 Demography: Recent Trajectory and Projected Developments 185 6.2 The Labour Market: Linking Population and Output 190 6.3 Migration Flows to and from Portugal: Economic and Labour Market Impacts 195 6.4 Policy Options 199 6.5 Formulating migration policies 204 Romania 215 7.1 Demographic developments 218 7.2 Labour market developments 221 7.3 Migration and employment of migrants 227 7.4 Implications of the recent developments 239 7.5 Formulating migration policies 242 7.6 Cooperative policy to manage eastern borders 250 Slovak Republic 259 8.1 Demographic and labour force developments 261 8.2 Concise characterization of recent developments in the Slovak economy 267 8.3 Immigration and labour market nexus 271 8.4 Emigration and labour market nexus 276 8.5 Weak points of labour migration practices in Slovakia and developments in the country’s migration policy 282 8.6 Proposals, recommendations and policy options 289 Ukraine 301 9.1 Demographic situation 302 9.2 Labour market developments 309 9.3 Migration and employment of migrants 317 9.4 Formulating migration policies 326 9.5 What do the trends and projections imply? 332 4 TTTTSR L IST OF CONTRIBUTORS Alexandre Abreu is a Ph.D. Candidate at the Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies in the University of London and a researcher at the Centre for Geographical Studies within the University of Lisbon. alexabreu@fl .ul.pt Monica Alexandru has researched and written extensively on migration and traffi cking in Romania and is currently a PhD candidate in Sociology at the University of Bucharest. [email protected] Jakub Bijak is a Senior Researcher at the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, International Organization for Migration, specializing in the application of quantitative methods in demography. [email protected] Boris Divinský holds a M.Sc. in Human and Regional Geography from the Comenius University in Bratislava and co-chairs the Working Group for Justice and Home Affairs within the National Convent on the EU (consultative body for the Slovak Government and Parliament). He is currently a freelancer. [email protected] Dušan Drbohlav is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Science, Department of Social Geography and Regional Development at Charles University in Prague. [email protected] Ágnes Hárs is Senior Research Fellow at the Kopint-Tarki Economic Research Institute in Budapest and she holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [email protected] Elmar Hönekopp was a senior researcher at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Nuremberg where he was responsible for the research department for International Comparisons and European Integration and led the research fi eld “Migration and Integration”. He retired at the beginning of 2008. [email protected] Eva Janská is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Science, Department of Social Geography and Regional Development at Charles University in Prague. [email protected] Pawel Kaczmarczyk, PhD, is an assistant professor at the Chair for Demography, Faculty of Economic Sciences (University of Warsaw) and researcher at the Centre of Migration Research (University of Warsaw). [email protected] Anna Kicinger holds a MA in International Relations and is a Researcher at the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, International Organization for Migration, specializing in migration policy issues. [email protected] RSTTTT 5 Weronika Kloc-Nowak holds a MA in Sociology from the University of Warsaw. Since 2005 as a member of the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research where she is focusing on studies of immigrant integration and international labour migration to and from Poland. [email protected] . Marek Kupiszewski is a Founding Director of the IOM’s Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research. He holds MSc in Mathematics and PhD and Habilitation in population geography. [email protected] Sebastian Lăzăroiu is Associate Professor at the Faculty of Communication and Public Relations within the National School of Political Studies and Public Administration, and an Associate Professor at the Faculty of Sociology within the University of Bucharest. Since 2007, he has worked as an adviser to the President of Romania. [email protected] Ella Libanova is Deputy Director at the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, NANU, in Kiev. She is also affi liated to the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the International Union for the Scientifi c Study of Population; she is a member of the State Commission on Economic and Social Development and of the National Council on Statistics under the President of Ukraine. [email protected] Olena A. Malynovska is Head of Department in the National Institute for International Security Problems, Kiev. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Administration and another in History and has occupied top positions within different state authorities dealing with migration issues. [email protected] Heikki Mattila is Regional Programme Offi cer within the International Organization for Migration, Mission with Regional Functions for Central and South-Eastern Europe. [email protected] Joanna Napierala is a PhD student at the Institute for Social Sciences (University of Warsaw) and Research Assistant at Centre of Migration Research, Faculty of Economic Sciences (University of Warsaw). [email protected] João Peixoto is Associate Professor at the Department of Social Sciences and an active researcher since 1992 at the Centre for Research on Economic Sociology and the Sociology of Organizations, both organizations affi liated with the School of Economics and Management, at the Technical University of Lisbon. He is also a consultant at the Portuguese National Statistical Institute. [email protected] Emilio Reyneri is Professor of Sociology of work at the Department of Sociology and Social Research of the University of Milan Bicocca. He is also a member of the network of excellence EQUALSOC (Economic changes, Quality of life and Social cohesion). [email protected] Endre Sík is a professor at the Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Minority Studies, Budapest and senior researcher at TÁRKI, a Social Research Institute based in Budapest. He is also member of the network of excellence of European migration researchers (IMISCOE). [email protected] 6 TTTTSR I NTRODUCTION Heikki Mattila Recent migration news and developments in Europe have shown that labour migration touches on the economic, demographic and security interests of all European countries and is today one of the most keenly debated political issues. Diffi cult, if not impossible to manage to everybody’s satisfaction, migration in general provides easy ammunition for attacks on governments by opposition parties. However neither governments nor opposition parties have yet been able to come up with magical measures to solve such persistent problems as the irregular markets of migrant labour force, or the brain drain suffered by sending countries.