PERMANENT OR CIRCULAR MIGRATION?
Policy Choices to Address Demographic Decline and Labour Shortages in Europe
Editors Elmar Hönekopp Heikki Mattila
Assistant Editor Alin Chindea
English Language Editor Mark Griffi th
April 2008 The authors prepared this report as independent consultants to the International Organization for Migration. Opinions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect the views of IOM.
IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefi ts migrants and society. As an intergovernmental body, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration: advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants.
Publisher:
International Organization for Migration (IOM) Regional Mission for Central and South Eastern Europe
1065 Budapest, Révay utca 12, HUNGARY Tel: +36 1 472 2500; Fax: +36 1 374 0532 Email: [email protected]; Web site: http://www.iom.hu
Graphic Design and Printing: Strém Kiadóház Ltd
© 2008 International Organization for Migration (IOM)
ISBN 978 92 9068 444 2
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission from the publisher. T ABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Contributors 5
Introduction 7
Population and labour force forecasts for selected European countries: assumptions and results 11 1.1 Background and assumptions of population and labour force forecast 2004–2054 11 1.2 The futures of population and labour force in selected European countries 22 1.3 Critical assessment of results and conclusions 30
The Czech Republic 35 2.1 Population developments 36 2.2 Labour market developments 38 2.3 Migration and employment of migrants 41 2.4 Free movement of labour within the EU 53 2.5 Real and potential brain drain – the Czech labour market 55 2.6 Political discussions of migration and the labour market 58 2.7 Main stakeholders in economic migration and its management 60 2.8 International aid 61 2.9 Recruitment programmes as examples of active policy 62 2.10 Conclusions 64 2.11 Recommendations 66
Hungary 73 3.1 Historical background 73 3.2 Demographic developments 75 3.3 Labour market developments 75 3.4 Migration and the employment of migrants 83 3.5 Formulating migration policies 97 3.6 Conclusions 104
Italy 109 4.1 The economic and social system at a glance 110 4.2 The dynamics of immigration 113 4.3 Migrants’ insertion into the labour market 120 4.4 Population, labour force trends and immigration 133 4.5 Migration policy 137