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Bangkok Condominium Residential Research

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Bangkok Condominium Residential Research Residential Research Bangkok Condominium Market Overview 2019 Knightfrank.co.th/Research BANGKOK CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW 2019 HIGHLIGHTS 1 2 THE ACCUMULATED SUPPLY OF BANGKOK THE CUMULATIVE DEMAND OF BANGKOK CONDOMINIUMS INCLUDED 623,381 UNITS AT CONDOMINIUMS AS OF THE END OF 2019 WAS THE END OF 2019; A GRAND TOTAL OF 57,722 UNITS 525,223 OF 623,381 UNITS (THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF FROM 130 PROJECTS WERE LAUNCHED DURING THE SUPPLY), OR AN 84.3 PER CENT SALES RATE. 2019. THIS REPRESENTS A DECREASE FROM THE NUMBER OF NEW CONDOMINIUM UNITS SOLD THE PREVIOUS YEAR OF 16.3 PER CENT. IN 2018, IN 2019 WAS ONLY 39,919 UNITS. THERE ARE THERE WERE 68,900 NEW CONDOMINIUM UNITS APPROXIMATELY 98,158 UNITS AVAILABLE FOR SALE. FOR SALE. 3 4 CONDOMINIUM BUYERS IN 2019 WERE COMPRISED AS FOR ASKING PRICES OF CONDOMINIUM IN OF 70 TO 80 PER CENT OF BUYERS WITH REAL BANGKOK, IT WAS FOUND THAT THE PRICE LEVEL DEMAND OR THOSE WHO PURCHASE THE UNITS INCREASED IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE ASKING PRICE AS THEIR ACTUAL RESIDENCES. THE OTHER 20 OF CONDOMINIUMS IN THE CBD WAS 268,000 BAHT TO 30 PER CENT OF BUYERS WERE INVESTORS. PER SQUARE METRE, WHEREAS THE ASKING PRICE OF CONDOMINIUM IN THE CITY FRINGE AND THE SUBURBS WAS 149,500 AND 81,000 BAHT PER SQUARE METRE, RESPECTIVELY. The condominium market in 2020 faces even more “ challenges than 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing severe damage to the overall economy. As it is a buyers’ market, developers have to adjust “ to changing sales strategies and promotions to satisfy demand in order to survive. RISINEE SARIKAPUTRA Director, Research and Consultancy 2 BANGKOK CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW 2019 Market Overview 2019 marks a sluggish year for the Bangkok condominium market, reflecting low confidence among both developers and buyers in the Thai market. The Bangkok condominium market, which used to be a haven for speculators, has now become a buyers’ market. Stricter mortgage regulations from the Bank of Thailand have also had a direct impact on sales. Many developers have reduced launches of new projects and shifted their focus to units priced below 100,000 baht per square metre, in recognition of modest purchasing power and to appeal to first-time buyers and first-time workers. Developers have implemented price wars and aggressive discounts in the condominium market as they need new strategies to hit their sales targets for the year 2020, especially for nearly completed projects where sales remain flat. Condominium Market Supply in Bangkok, 2009 - 2019 Supply Trend As the end of 2019, the accumulated supply of Bangkok condominiums included 623,381 units. In 2019, there were approximately 57,722 new condominium units from 130 projects added to the supply. The new supply in 2019 decreased from the previous year of 16.3 per cent. In 2018, there were 68,900 new condo- minium units for sale. In 2019, up to 61 per cent of the newly launched units werelocated in the suburbs of Bangkok, followed by 24 per cent in the City Fringe and only 15 per cent in the Central Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research Business District (CBD). Supply, Demand and Sales Rate of Bangkok Condominiums, 2009 - 2019 Demand Trend The condominium market in 2019 included an accumulated sales rate of 525,223 units, from a total supply of 623,381 units. This represents a sales rate of 84.3 per cent, which dropped from 2018 with a sales rate of 85.8 per cent. The number of new condominium units sold in 2019 was only 39,919 units. The average number of new condominiums sold per year in the past five years is approximately 58,000 units per year. The number of condominium units sold in Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research 2019 is down by 31.2 per cent – the main reason being the LTV measures that have Condominiums Sold, 2014 - 2019 cut the purchasing power of investors, speculators and foreign customers as well as reduced opportunities for buyers who are looking to purchase residences, as commercial banks have implemented tighter credit controls. In addition, the Chinese government prohibits money transfers outside of the country. These factors have resulted in decreased liquidity to buy condominiums launched in the past year, and the market has slowed down considerably. Condominium buyers in 2019 were comprised of 70 to 80 per cent of buyers with real demand Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research or those who purchase the units as their actual residences. This group is interested in buying condominiums that 3 BANGKOK CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW 2019 Selling Price of Condominiums in Various Areas of Bangkok, are already completed and ready for 2010 - 2019 occupancy. The other 20 to 30 per cent of buyers were investors interested in purchasing condominiums located along the train lines that are currently under construction or already completed. Most of the condominium units sold in 2019 were mostly completed projects, with a selling price of less than 3 million baht per unit. Newly launched projects are still being sold but sales will be slow. Another factor that caused condominium sales to decline in 2019 was the lower purchasing power from foreign countries, especially China, due to the economic slowdown. Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research The purchasing power from foreign and Chinese people is expected to decrease Discount Rates from Condominium Projects further in 2020 due to the COVID-19 virus situation, causing foreigners to refrain from traveling to various countries, including Thailand. The number of remai- ning condominium units for sale at the end of 2019 is approximately 98,158 units. Selling Price Trend Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research As for asking prices of condominiums in Overall Market Strategy for Operators in 2020 Bangkok, it was found that the price level increased in all locations. As of the end of 2019, the asking price of condominiums in the Central Business District was 268,000 baht per square metre, increasing from 2018’s price of 260,761 baht per square metre, representing an increase of 2.8 per cent. The asking price of condominiums around the City Fringe at the end of 2019 was 149,500 baht per square metre, reflecting a 2.7 per cent increase from the previous year, where the price was 145,556 baht per square metre. The asking price of condominiums in the suburbs of Bangkok at the end of 2019 was 81,000 baht per square metre, increasing at the rate of 2.3 per cent from 2018’s price of 79,158 baht per square metre. Although asking prices increased, the economic downturn has led many condo- minium projects to offer discounts and promotional activities to attract buyers. In particular, larger discounts have been offered by operators of projects with overpriced units, as opposed to projects with more appropriate price levels. It was found that condominium projects located in the Central Business District provided a discount of 2.5 to 6 per cent from the initial asking price. Residential condominiums in the suburbs of Bangkok offered a relatively high discount of 5 to 13 per cent off the initial asking price. Condominiums Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research 4 BANGKOK CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW 2019 Residential Project Development Plans in 2020 from Listed in the City Fringe gave discounts of 3 to 6 Companies in Thailand percent from the initial asking price. Also, developers listed on the stock exchange provided discounts at a lower rate than smaller developers. Marketing Strategy for Developers in 2020 • Slow down the launches of condomi- niums in 2020. Some operators, such as Land and House, Golden Land, Property Perfect, etc., have decided not to launch any condominium projects this year. Others plan to launch only one project; these include Ananda Development with Ideo Pahol – Saphan Kwai and SC Asset with the 429-room, The Crest Park Resi- dences in the Ladprao 5-way intersection area. • Focus on developing horizontal projects such as single-detached houses, semi- detached houses and town houses instead of launching condominiums. SENA Deve- lopment is ready to take the town house market by storm this year. • Expand investment to the provinces. For example, AP Thailand has adjusted Source: Knight Frank Thailand Research their strategy to expand to the provincial markets, launching a new brand in the 1 to 2 million baht price segment. They will launch this in four to five regions, with one project per region. The first such project will be in Nakhon Sri Thammarat province. • Offer condominium rooms as long-term rentals, and then compile a large portfolio of 50 to 100 rooms to be sold to a big investor. This strategy is being under- taken by LPN, with their pilot projects being Lumpini Township Rangsit-Khlong 1, Lumpini Rama 3-Riverine and Lumpini Place Phahonyothin 32. • Some operators that have launched projects have found that the project cannot be sold due to the economic conditions and the COVID-19 epidemic. They have halted sales and are waiting for the situation to improve before resuming sales. These include The Tree Charan- Bangplad project, which was launched in the middle of 2019 and only 20 per cent has been sold; the developer, Pruksa Real Estate, thus decided to close project sales and postpone the new launch until a more opportune time. They also transferred the group of customers who bought units in 5 BANGKOK CONDOMINIUM MARKET OVERVIEW 2019 this project to four other projects in the Prime Sukhumvit (Prime SKV): Petchburi Road: area, to increase sales in the projects that This is the section of Sukhumvit Road This area covers Petchburi Road from have already been launched and are fully between Soi 1 to 63 (North side) and Soi Nikhom Makasan intersection to the ready for sale in the market.
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