Expressway Project 2-9 2.4 Impact on Traffic Condition at Kasetsart Junction, 2-12 Case : Expressway Project

Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents

Contents Page

Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1 1.1 Project Background 1-1

Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Passenger Study 2-1 2.1 Traffic and Transportation Study 2-1 2.2 Forecast Rail Passenger 2-7 2.3 Forecast Traffic Volume of the Elevated Expressway Project 2-9 2.4 Impact on Traffic Condition at Kasetsart Junction, 2-12 Case : Expressway Project

Chapter 3 Elevated Expressway 3-1 3.1 Overview 3-1 3.2 Entrance and Exit Design 3-4 3.3 Viaduct Structures 3-7 3.3.1 Preliminary Investment Plan of the 3rd Stage Expressway – North Line 3-8 3.3.2 Land Acquisition Cost 3-8 3.3.3 Construction Cost (Construction Supervision 3-8 and Environmental Cost included) 3.4 Economic Suitability Analysis 3-9 3.5 Financial Suitability Study 3-11 3.5.1 Assumptions to Financial Analysis 3-11 3.5.2 Cost Estimate Investment and Operations 3-11 3.5.3 Project Revenue Estimates 3-13 3.5.4 Financial Suitability Analysis 3-15 3.5.5 Results of Financial Analysis 3-16 3.6 Investment Plan 3-19

Chapter 4 Railway System 4-1 4.1 Alignment 4-1 4.2 General Concept of the Brown Line Project 4-4 4.2.1 Routing 4-4 4.2.2 Track Viaduct 4-4 4.3 Station 4-9 4.3.1 Station Location 4-9 4.3.2 Interchange Station 4-21

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Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents

Contents (cont’d) Page 4.4 The Railway System 4-22 4.5 Investment Plan 4-24 4.5.1 Land Acquisition Cost 4-24 4.5.2 Construction Cost (include construction supervision 4-25 and environmental mitigation) 4.6 Economic Analysis 4-26 4.7 Suitability Study for Financial and Investment 4-28 4.7-1 Estimated Expenditures Investment and Operation Costs 4-28 4.7-2 Estimated Revenues of Project 4-30 4.8 Financial Suitability Analysis 4-32 4.9 Investment Plan 4-33

Chapter 5 Development plan 5-1 5.1 Development Plan and Implementation of the Expressway 5-1 and the Brown Line System 5-1 5.2 Collaborative Model and Plan with the Brown Line Project 5-2 5.3 Formal Coordination with the Brown Line Project 5-6

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Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents

Table of contents Page

Table 2.1-1 Trips Forecast of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region 2-1 Table 2.1-2 Mode Share from the Rail Mass Transit Master Plan in 2029 2-2 Table 2.1-3 Traffic Index of Road Network in Influence Area by Year 2051 2-6 Table 2.1-4 Total Demand by Mode Share in W-E Corridor by Year 2051 2-6 Table 2.2-1 Forecast Public Transport Demand by Rail Transit Year 2021-204 2-7 Table 2.2-2 Predict Summary Passenger Volume and Passenger Transfer 2-8 Volume Year 2025-2055 Table 2.3-1 Traffic Benefit of Road Network (A.M. Peak) During 2024-205 2-10

Table 3.3-1 Acquisition Cost B.E. 2561 3-8 The 3rd Stage Expressway, North Line – N1 Substitution, N2, EW Corridor-East Side Table 3.3-2 Project Construction Cost 3-8 Table 3.4-1 Results of Financial Analysis: 3-9 Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Table 3.4-2 Detail of Economic Analysis: 3-10 Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Table 3.5-1 Summary of Project Financial Cost: Northern 3rd Stage 3-11 Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Table 3.5-2 Investment Plan Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System 3-12 N2 & EW and N1 Project (Financial Prices) Table 3.5-3 Toll Rate Classified by Car Types 3-14 Table 3.5-4 Standard Assumptions for Financial Analysis 3-16 Table 3.5-5 Results of Financial Analysis: 3-17 Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1) Table 3.5-6 Cash Flow Statement in Case of investment with Thailand Future Fund (TFF) 3-18

Table 4.3-1 Details location of stations 4-10 Table 4.3-2 Location of Interchange Station 4-21 Table 4.4-1 Summary of Passenger of the Brown Line 2025-2055 4-22 Table 4.4-2 Estimation of Trains and Headway 4-22 Table 4.5-1 Land Acquisition Cost of the Brown Line 4-25 Table 4.5-2 Project Cost Estimate 4-25 Table 4.6-1 Results of Economic Analysis 4-26

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Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents

Table of contents (cont’d) Page

Table 4.6-2 Detail Economic Analysis of the Brown Line Railway System Project : 4-27 Khae Rai-Lumsali Section Table 4.7-1 Summary of Project Financial Cost 4-28 Table 4.7-2 Yearly Projected Investment 4-29 Table 4.7-3 Fare Rate from 2018-2055 4-30 Table 4.7-4 Summary of Volume of Passengers Forecasting and Volume of 4-31 Transfer Passengers of the Brown Line from 2025-2050 Table 4.7-5 Project Revenue Forecast of the Brown Line 4-31 Table 4.8-1 Standard Assumptions for Financial Analysis 4-32 Table 4.8-2 Results of Financial Analysis 4-32 Table 4.8-3 FIRR Calculation for Calculate Revenue in Case of Distant Fare 4-34

Table 5.1-1 Plan for the Northern Third Stage Expressway Project 5-1 Table 5.1-2 Plan for the Brown Line Project 5-2

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Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents

Figure of contents Page

Figure 1.1-1 Route Alignment of the Brown Line Electric Train Project 1-2 Figure 1.1-2 Route Alignment of the E-W Corridor Expressway Project 1-3 Figure 1.1-3 The Brown Line Electric Train Project 1-4 Figure 1.1-4 The Brown Line and the Expressway on Prasert Manukitch Road 1-4 Figure 1.1-5 The Brown Line and the Expressway on Prasert Manukitch Road 1-5 Figure 1.1-6 The Brown Line and the Expressway at Nawamin Intersection 1-5

Figure 2.1-1 Road Network System and the Main Expressway 2-3 in the Bangkok Outer Ring Road Figure 2.1-2 Traffic Demand and Available Capacity, Without Project Case 2-4 Figure 2.1-3 Traffic Demand and Available Capacity, With Project Case 2-5 Figure 2.3-1 Traffic Volume Elevated Expressway Project 2-9 in Case of Alternative 4 (A.M. Peak) Figure 2.3-2 V/C Ratio of Alternative 4 Comparative with Without Project 2-11

Figure 3.1-1 The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between 3-2 Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road - 1/2 Figure 3.1-2 The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between 3-2 Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road - 2/2 Figure 3.1-3 The N2 and E-W Corridor Sections of the 3rd Stage Expressway 3-3 Figure 3.1-4 The Entire Route of East-West Elevated Expressway 3-3 Figure 3.1-5 Route of Project 3-4 Figure 3.2-1 Entrance and Exit Ramps 3-5 Figure 3.2-2 System Interchange with Chalong Rat Expressway and its toll system 3-6 Figure 3.2-3 System interchange with Eastern Bangkok Outer Ring Road and its toll system 3-6 Figure 3.3-1 Conceptual Design of Combination Section on Prasert Manukitch Road 3-7

Figure 4.1-1 Mass Transit and Expressway Network 4-1 Figure 4.1-2 The alignment of Brown Line System from Khae Rai to 4-2 Lum Sali and the Northern Expressway Stage 3 section N1 substitution, N2+EW Figure 4.1-3 Picture of Brown Line Project and Expressway System 4-2 on Prasert Manukitch road

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Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents

Figure of contents (cond’t) Page

Figure 4.1-4 Picture of Monorail Station on Prasert Manukitch road 4-3 Figure 4.1-5 General Configuration of Expressway and Railway System 4-4 Figure 4.2-1 Picture of the Brown Line Project on 4-5 Ngam Wong Wan road and Nawamin road Figure 4.2-2 Picture of the Brown Line Project on 4-5 Ngam Wong Wan road and Nawamin road Figure 4.2-3 Alignment of Brown Line and 4-6 Proposed Grey Line interchange Station at Chalong Rat Interchange Figure 4.2-4 Alignment of Brown Line at Nawamin Intersection 4-6 Figure 4.2-5 Picture of Brown Line Project at Nawamin Intersection 4-7 Figure 4.2-6 General Elevation of Brown Line 4-8 Figure 4.3-1 Location of Station 4-9 Figure 4.3-2 Interchange location with other Railway line 4-21 Figure 4.4-1 Monorail Straddle Type System 4-23 Figure 4.4-2 Depot of Brown Line 4-24

Figure 5.2-1 Operation Plan for the Expressway and 5-3 the Brown Line Project Figure 5.2-2 Budget Plan for the Northern Third Stage Expressway System N2 E-W 5-4 Corridor and N1 substitution Figure 5.2-3 Budget Plan for the Brown Line Project 5-5 Figure 5.2-4 Map of the Expressway and the Brown Line Project 5-6 Figure 5.3-1 Construction Stages during the Expressway 5-7 and the Brown Line Project Figure 5.3-2 Normal Construction Stages of the Expressway 5-10

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Introduction

Chapter 1 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Introduction Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Project Background

According to a resolution of the cabinet meeting on 17th April 2018, the cabinet acknowledged a solution to use the existing constructed piers at the middle of Prasert Manukitch Road, concluded in the Commission for the Management of Road Traffic meeting no. 1/2561 on 21st February 2018, that the expressway network for section N1 substitution and the 3rd Stage Expressway, section N2 and E-W Corridor, should be simultaneously developed in order to mitigate the traffic problem at Kaset Intersection. The structure of the 3rd Stage Expressway, North Line-section N2, shall be designed in such a manner to support the Brown Line Electric Train Project that will be implemented in the future. Implementation period of the Brown Line shall also be considered to have its service been in accordance with the Mass Transit System Master Plan. The Brown Line implementation plan shall be determined in the Master Plan of the Rail Transport in Bangkok and vicinity.

As a result from the Brown Line Electric Train Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) feasibility study of the Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, it is necessary and worthy to have the expressway and the Brown Line been simultaneously constructed at the middle of Prasert Manukitch Road by employing the piers of the 3rd Stage Expressway, North Line, that have been already constructed by the Expressway Authority of Thailand. The mass rapid transit system will be an elevated monorail of which the beginning point will connect with the Purple Line and the Pink Line at Khae Rai intersection. The route will run along Ngam Wong Wan Road and Prasert Manukitch Road to Nawamin intersection. Then the route will turn to the south direction and run along Nawamin Road to the ending point at Suan Son intersection. The expressway system and the mass rapid transit system will be simultaneously constructed along Prasert Manukitch Road in which the expressway will be at the upper level above the electric train project. The project location is as shown in Figure 1.1-1.

The 3rd Stage Expressway, North Line, will comprise of the expressway for section N1 substitution that will be a linkage network connecting Utraphimuk Elevated Tollway and Si Rat-Bangkok Outer Ring Road Expressway at Ratchavibha interchange of which the alignment will run parallel to Utraphimuk Elevated Tollway to the north direction on the east side of

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Vibhavadi Rangsit Road. After reaching Klong Bang Khen, the route will turn to the east direction and run along Klong Bang Khen prior to turning to the south direction and run along Klong Ladprao to connect with section N2 at Prasert Manukitch Road. Then the route will run to the east direction along Prasert Manukitch Road passing intersection, Senanikhom intersection, Chalong Rat intersection and Nawamin intersection prior to ending at the end of Prasert Manukitch Road that connects to the Outer Ring Road (East Side). The total route length is as of 17.2 kilometers of which the alignment is as shown in Figure 1.1-2.

Beginning of Project Bang Khen Intersection

Figure 1.1-1 Route Alignment of the Brown Line Project

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Figure 1.1-2 Route Alignment of the E-W Corridor Expressway Project

The Brown Line Electric Train Project will start at Khae Rai intersection at which the Purple Line and the Pink Line will be connected. The alignment will run along Ngam Wong Wan Road passing through Bang Khen intersection where there will be a station connecting with the Red Line Project, Kaset intersection where there will be a station connecting with the Green Line Project, Chalong Rat intersection at which a connection with the Grey Line Project will be provided. Then the route will run to Nawamin intersection and turn right towards Ramkamhaeng Road at which a connection with the Orange Line Project and the Yellow Line Project will be provided at Suan Son intersection and Lam Sali intersection respectively. The total route length is as of 22.1 kilometers with a total number of 20 stations.

The Project characteristics are as shown in Figure 1.1-3 to Figure 1.1-6.

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Figure 1.1-3 The Brown Line Project

Figure 1.1-4 The Brown Line and the Expressway on Prasert Manukitch Road

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Figure 1.1-5 The Brown Line and the Expressway on Prasert Manukitch Road

Figure 1.1-6 The Brown Line and the Expressway at Nawamin Intersection

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Chapter 2

Traffic Study and Rail Passenger Study

Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Passenger Study Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Passenger Study

2.1 Traffic and Transportation Study

The traffic problems in Bangkok are caused by the travel demand more than transport supply for both the road network and public transport.. The total road area is about 8 percent compared to the total area (from the City Planning Standard Development Report of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, 2010) with a less increasing of road space due to the difficulty of land acquisition and the rapid growth of the city. The ratio of road area to total area is below standard, for example, Tokyo Metropolitan accounting for 23 percent and New York City accounting for 38 percent.

Although, the government is trying to accelerate the implementation of the rail mass transit system project in the master plan, it takes several years to get a complete network. Therefore, the operations are still unable to motivate people to change the way they travel from private cars to mass transit systems. With the rapid population growth, the mass transit network still does not meet the demand. According to the study report, a study of travel demand management (TDM) to support the development of traffic network and public transportation in Bangkok (Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP), Ministry of Transport, 2015), the study predicts that the number of trips will be 27.6 million person-trips per day in 2017. The share of private cars is 69.19% in 2017 and 72.03% in 2037, although the rail mass transit system has been developed in accordance with the master plan in all 10 routes, as shown in Table 2.1-1.

Table 2.1-1 Trips Forecast of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region

Travel Demand (million person-trips per day) Proportion (%) Year Total Private Car Public Transport Private Car Public Transport 2017 27,618 19,110 8,508 69.19 30.81 2022 30,320 21,272 9,047 70.16 29.84 2027 32,986 23,410 9,576 70.97 29.03 2032 35,764 25,550 10,214 71.44 28.56 2037 38,570 27,780 10,790 72.03 27.97 Source: TDL, Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning, 2015.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 2-1 Executive Summary Report Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Passenger Study In addition, the results of the study on the 20-year Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan for Bangkok Metropolitan (2010-2029) or M-MAP predict that if the rail transit system is fully developed in accordance with the Master Plan, the proportion of travel by the rail system increases to 4.62 million trips per day in the year 2029 accounting for 20.7% of the total volume. Most of the routes are radial out of Bangkok to assist in traveling between the outer and inner areas of Bangkok. Most of the traveler using the rail transit system have a mode shift from the other types of public transport with a less portion from private cars. However, if there is no rail mass transit project it will cause serious traffic problems as the road network is not able to sufficiently increase to accommodate travel, as shown in Table 2.1-2.

Table 2.1-2 Mode Share from the Rail Mass Transit Master Plan in 2029

Year 2029 Mode Share Year 2008 Year 2017 Without M-Map With M-Map Private Vehicle Car 35.1% 39.0% 43.7% 41.1% MC 15.0% 14.3% 12.8% 12.4% Taxi 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% Total 54.7% 57.4% 60.8% 57.6% Public Transport MRT 3.7% 4.9% 6.3% 20.7% Other 41.6% 37.7% 32.9% 21.7% Total 45.3% 42.6% 39.2% 42.4% Source: The Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan for Bangkok Metropolitan (M-Map 2010) and Consultants

According to the condition of the road network in the area between the Bangkok Inner Ring Road (Ratchadaphisek Road) and the Bangkok Outer Ring Road (Kanchanapisek Road) that covers the area of Bangkok and its vicinity, the network mostly connects the north side and south side with both general road and expressway while there is no expressway network connecting between the west side and the east side as shown in Figure 2.1-1.

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Tolled Road Bangkok Ring Road Main Road

Figure 2.1-1 Road Network System and the Main Expressway in the Bangkok Outer Ring Road

From the study results of the Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit Project, the travel demand in Morning rush hour in the year 2021, classified by type of road network and mass transit network, is 786,110 PCU per hour and 982,895 person-trips per day, respectively. The travel demand and network supply (both road network and public transport network) is that in case there is no Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit Project and N2-EW Expressway the travel demand by road is as of 62,000 PCU/hour while the maximum capacity of the main road network is only 26,400 PCU/hour. The public transport demand is 140,000 person-trips per day while the transport network supply is only about 120,000 person-trips per day, Figure 2.1-2.

Then, In the case of the operation of the Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit Project and N2-EW Expressway the road capacity will increase to 32,400 PCU/hour but it is still less than the demand for travel. While the capacity of the public transport network will increase to 180,000 person-trips per day that is over than the demand, Figure 2.1-3.

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Without Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit and N2-EW Expressway Project Case on Year 2021 Maximum capacity of Mass Rapid Transit Pink Line = 60 000 Person Trip Hr. Yellow Line = 60 000 Person Trip Hr. Maximum capacity of Road Network Ram Inthra Rd. = 9,600 PCU/Hr. Prasertmanukit Rd. = 9,600 PCU Hr. Lat Phrao Rd. = 7,200 PCU/Hr.

Legend

Public Transport

Road Network

Figure 2.1-2 Traffic Demand and Available Capacity, Without Project Case

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With Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit and N2-EW Expressway Project Case on Year 2021 Maximum capacity of Mass Rapid Transit Pink Line = 60 000 Person Trip Hr. Yellow Line = 60 000 Person Trip Hr. Maximum capacity of Road Network Ram Inthra Rd. = 9,600 PCU/Hr. Prasertmanukit Rd. = 9,600 PCU Hr. Lat Phrao Rd. = 7,200 PCU/Hr. N2-EW = 6,000 PCU/Hr.

Legend

Public Transport

Road Network

Figure 2.1-3 Traffic Demand and Available Capacity, With Project Case

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 2-5 Executive Summary Report Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Passenger Study Additional both elevated expressway networks and Public transport networks in E-W corridor are required to complete the missing link network of the expressway and to accommodate the future public transport demand. The results of the study show the traffic index of road by scenarios. The alternative 4 which includes both networks provides the most difference v/c ratio. That means the traffic problem will be more reduced about 1.36% as shown in Table 2.1-3.

Table 2.1-3 Traffic Index of Road Network in Influence Area by Year 2051

Total Travel Total Travel V/C Difference V/C Scenario Distance Time Of Influence Area % (PCU-km/day) (PCU-hr/day) Base Year 2017 768,636 99,607 0.697 Without Project 1,317,959 369,242 1.179 - Alternative 1 1,309,600 361,655 1.168 0.93% Alternative 2 1,304,423 360,313 1.166 1.10% Alternative 3 1,301,196 359,484 1.165 1.19% Alternative 4 1,296,148 357,671 1.163 1.36% Source: Consultants

Table 2.1-4 Total Demand by Mode Share in W-E Corridor by Year 2051

Year Year 2051 Travel Type 2017 Alternative 1 Alternative 3 Alternative 4 Total Demand (Million Trip day) 19.10 31.87 31.87 31.87 Average Tarvel Speed (km hr) 10.96 7.54 7.56 7.63 Passenger Car Volume (Million Trip day) 11.70 20.29 20.40 20.37 Public transport Volume (Million Trip day) 7.40 11.58 11.47 11.50 Source: Consultants

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2.2 Forecast Rail Passenger

With the Brown Line Rapid Transit project, a connection among the other 7 rail public transport network will be developed comprising of Purple line, Pink line, Red line, Green line, Gray line, Orange line and Yellow line project. The Brown Line will distribute the demand among the northern and the eastern area of Bangkok without passing the inner Ring Road (Ratchadapisek road). The study shows that the Brown Line will induce the total of rail passenger up to 3.36% as shown in Table 2.2-1.

Table 2.2-1 Forecast Public Transport Demand by Rail Transit Year 2021-2041

Travel Volume by Mass Rapid Transit Year 2021-2041 (Person-Trip/Day) Without Brown Line With Brown Line Year Mass Rapid Transit Mass Rapid Transit 2021 2,971,991 3,141,834 2026 4,602,668 4,821,581 2031 5,814,065 6,085,347 2036 6,882,269 7,155,300 2041 7,862,198 8,126,239 Source: Consultants

It shows that the Brown Line Project will fulfill the mass transit network and increase overall rail passenger system. The reducing of travel time and the number of increasing private car are the benefits of the project and land utilization will also be developed.

Both expressway and public networks are required to meet the optimize benefit and should be implemented as soon as possible. The results show the rail passenger 9,852 person-trip/day in 2025 increase to 16,438 person-trip/day in 2055 as shown in Table 2.2-2.

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Table 2.2-2 Predict Summary Passenger Volume and Passenger Transfer Volume Year 2025-2055

Rail Passenger Volume Maximum Line Average Travel Boarding to the Transfer from Year Total Load Distance Brown Line Other Lines (Person-Trip/Day) (Person-Trip/hr) (km) (Person-Trip/Day) (Person-Trip/Day) 2025 165,572 52,975 218,547 9,852 7.63 2030 188,413 80,229 268,642 11,004 7.61 2035 212,527 103,827 316,354 12,686 7.67 2040 233,748 122,997 356,745 14,033 7.70 2045 247,102 138,799 385,901 15,022 7.74 2050 255,811 151,280 407,091 15,755 7.77 2055 263,790 163,096 426,886 16,438 7.80

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2.3 Forecast Traffic Volume of the Elevated Expressway Project

Figure 2.3-1 shows the results of traffic volume of the expressway project in case of alternative 4 during 2024-2055.

Figure 2.3-1 Traffic Volume Elevated Expressway Project in Case of Alternative 4 (A.M. Peak)

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The traffic benefits of alternative 4 show the total difference between with and without project scenarios of travel distance (PCU-km), travel time (PCU-hr) and average speed (kph). These will be converted to economic benefit for economic analysis of the project because alternative 4 combine 2 projects. To eliminate double counting benefit, the case without project in Table 2.3-1 is only without expressway project but include Brown Line Project. Table 2.3-1 show the traffic benefit of A.M. peak during 2024-2055 and Figure 2.3-2 show v/c ratio.

Table 2.3-1 Traffic Benefit of Road Network (A.M. Peak) During 2024-2055

Total Travel Distana (PCU-km) Total Travel Time (PCU-hr) Average Speed (kph) Year Without Without Without Alternative 4 Different Alternative 4 Different Alternative 4 Different Projcet Projcet Projcet 2024 31,084,742 31,077,976 6,766 3,327,474 3,306,218 21,256 9.34 9.40 0.06 2030 35,425,590 35,416,820 8,770 4,201,218 4,178,138 23,080 8.43 8.48 0.05 2035 39,329,936 39,319,534 10,402 5,077,454 5,049,692 27,762 7.75 7.79 0.04 2040 41,766,316 41,754,690 11,626 5,478,308 5,446,190 32,118 7.62 7.67 0.05 2045 43,896,814 43,884,108 12,706 5,772,002 5,730,550 41,452 7.61 7.66 0.05 2050 46,135,994 46,122,250 13,744 6,099,580 6,053,744 45,836 7.56 7.62 0.06 2055 48,397,124 48,382,350 14,774 6,434,380 6,385,724 48,656 7.52 7.58 0.06

Year 2024, alternative 4 provide the traffic benefit (PCU-km reducing) 6,766 PCU-km. Due to the expressway Project’s alignment is the same Prasert Manukitch road, the reducing PCU-km are not so much. The reducing PCU-hr are 21,256 PCU-hr due to the shifting volume by using expressway and a little bit increase average speed. The magnitude of different speed is not so much because of the over saturated capacity. The average speed is equal to 9.4 kph comparative higher than TDL’s study which 8.3 kph (in 2023) and 5.6 kph (in 2037).

The benefit of the expressway project increases in every analysis year. The last year between 2030-2055 of analysis, the different of travel distance is equal to 14,774 PCU-km and the different of travel time is equal to 48,656 PCU-hr.

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Figure 2.3-2 V/C Ratio of Alternative 4 Comparative with Without Project

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2.4 Impact on Traffic Condition at Kasetsart Junction, Case: Expressway Project

Based on the results of the micro-level analysis, between the absence of a project and in the case of an entrance/exit-ramps construction project, it is found out that

 On Phaholyothin Road in the south for inbound traffic, it is found that both cases have Level of Service F (LOS F) because the demand for travel in the south is very high (not different) and the physical limitations of the Kasetsart junction, there is only one traffic lane (Phaholyothin Road). So, in case there are expressways, it will not negatively affect Phaholyothin Road.

While in the north bound is similar even though the demand for travel in the out-bound traffic is not higher than the in-bound traffic. Due to the physical limitations of Phaholyothin Road, the expressway does not affect traffic on Phaholyothin Road.  On Ngam Wongwan Road, both the Amorn-Phant market and the Kasetsart university, the expressway will have a slight impact on the flat road, There are similar traffic jams for the traffic tunnel. (LOS F).  On Prasert Manukitch Road at Influence Area the expressway will have a slight effect on weaving because there is only one exit lanes. It is located in the middle of the right hand side of the road, which allows the vehicle in straight directions to pass easily through the traffic tunnel and the length of weaving direction is sufficient (up to 500 meters). Then, the traffic from Prasert Manukitch Road and the expressway can be merging before entering the intersection. In addition, the influence area is about 500 meters from the junction, it does not affect the Kasetsart junction. It resulted in only increase traffic to the junction.  The traffic on the expressway has a queue due to the reduced traffic to only one traffic. So, the traffic on the flat is slightly affected. It does not affect the Kasetsart junction significantly.  For traffic on Prasert Manukitch Road in out-bound direction, it will benefit significantly from the project. The expressway system is able to increase the capacity of the network and help to reduce traffic from Prasert Manukitch Road. As a result, the ability to get through the junction increased by 26 percent.  The main purpose of the Expressway will be to connect the western side to the east side of Karnchanapisek Road. For an entrance/exit-ramps

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 2-12 Executive Summary Report Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Passenger Study construction project at the Kasetsart junction, it will reverse the traffic congestion on the Expressway. Therefore, the consultant only recommends the construction of the entrance-ramps.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 2-13 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Elevated Expressway

Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Chapter 3 Eleveted Expressway

3.1 Overview

The elevated expressway is planned to serve east-west traffics of Bangkok city, the entire route comprises of 4 sections:

1) Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway (Opened for service in 2016) 2) The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between Srirat - Western Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road (Under Detailed Design Stage), as shown in Figure 3.1-1 and Figure 3.1-2 3) The substitute route of N1 Section of the 3rd Stage Expressway 4) The N2 and E-W Corridor Sections of the 3rd Stage Expressway, as shown in Figure 3.1-3

From the 4 Sections above, this project is considered only for Section 3 and Section 4. The elevated expressway project is a 4-lanes route for its entire length, as shown in Figure 3.1-4 and Figure 3.1-5

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-1 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Figure 3.1-1 The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road - 1/2

Figure 3.1-2 The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road - 2/2

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-2 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Figure 3.1-3 The N2 and E-W Corridor Sections of the 3rd Stage Expressway

Figure 3.1-4 The Entire Route of East-West Elevated Expressway

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-3 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Figure 3.1-5 Route of Project

3.2 Entrance and Exit Design

The elevated road project is comprised of 4 entrance-ramps, 3 exit-ramps, 2 system- interchanges and an overpass, as shown in Figure 3.2-1

1) Entrace-ramp for west-bound traffic, from in-bound traffic of Vibhavadi Rangsit road 2) Entrance-ramp for east-bound traffic, from in-bound traffic of Vibhavadi Rangsit road 3) Exit-ramp from west-bound traffic, for in-bound traffic of Vibhavadi Rangsit road 4) Entrance-ramp for east-bound traffic, from out-bound traffic of Prasert Manukitch road 5) Exit-ramp from east-bound traffic, for out-bound traffic of Highway No. 350 6) Exit-ramp from east-bound traffic, for out-bound traffic of Prasert Manukitch road 7) Entrance-ramp for west-bound traffic, from in-bound traffic of Prasert Manukitch road

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-4 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

8) System interchange with Chalong Rat Expressway and its toll collection system, Figure 3.2-2 9) System interchange with Eastern Bangkok Outer Ring Road (Lad Buakao Interchange) and its toll collection system (by DOH), Figure 3.2-3 10) 4-lane Overpass over Prasert Manukitch-Nawamin intersection

Figure 3.2-1 Entrance and Exit Ramps

Figure 3.2-2 System Interchange with Chalong Rat Expressway and its toll system

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-5 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Figure 3.2-3 System interchange with Eastern Bangkok Outer Ring Road and its toll system

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-6 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

3.3 Viaduct Structures Types of viaduct structures of elevated expressway can be classified as following Exprssway Section Viaduct Substitute of N1 Section Precast Concrete Segmental Box Girder Combination Section of the Precasted Concrete I-Girder or Steel Girder Expressway and Brown Line on Prasert Manukitch Road Other N2 Section Precast Concrete I-Girder or Precast Concrete Segmental Box Girder as designed by EXAT

Figure 3.3-1 Conceptual Design of Combination Section on Prasert Manukitch Road

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3.3.1 Preliminary Investment Plan of the 3rd Stage Expressway – North Line

Details of the investment are categorized in accordance with the investment plan and the opening to service plan of the expressway project. The implementation plan starts from the feasibility study to the detailed design and construction completion prior to open to service in 2024 and ends in 2054 after 30 years of service.

3.3.2 Land Acquisition Cost

The land acquisition cost of the 3rd State Expressway, North Line – N1 substitution, N2 EW Corridor-East Side, mainly comprises of the expropriation cost and compensation for buildings and structures in order to cover all other expenses such as expenses for plantation, compensation to land owners, loss of opportunity etc. The acquisition cost of the project is as shown in Table 3.3-1.

Table 3.3-1 Acquisition Cost B.E. 2561 The 3rd Stage Expressway, North Line – N1 Substitution, N2, EW Corridor-East Side Base Price as of 2018 Case Study with Project Area (Rai) /Building (no.) Amount (Million Baht) (without Brown Line) Land Acquisition 11 Rai 0 Ngan 8 sq. wa 58.6 Building and Structure Compensation 6 36.1 Total 94.7

3.3.3 Construction Cost (Construction Supervision and Environmental Measure Cost included)

Table 3.3-2 Project Construction Cost

Project Cost N1 Substitution and (unit: million Baht at base price as of 2018) N2+EW Feasibility Stud /Environmental Study/Detailed Design 229.00 Acquisition Land 59.00 Buildings and Structures 36.00 Construction Expressway System 18,371.00 Motorway Linkage and Road Work 4,137.00

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-8 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Project Cost N1 Substitution and (unit: million Baht at base price as of 2018) N2+EW Construction Expressway 320.00 Supervision Operation Expressway 4,968.00 Maintenance Annual 3,000.00 Periodic 316.00 Environmental Mitigation Measure 114.00 Measure Monitoring Measure 124.00 Total (for the whole Project Study Period) (2021-2054) 31,674.00 Grand Total

3.4 Economic Suitability Analysis

From Economic Suitability Analysis, by using discount rate at 12% of project, the return of project will has Net Present Value been equal to 28,224.08 Million Baht, Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) will be 32.17% and Benefit Cost Ratio will be 3.29.

Table 3.4-1 Results of Financial Analysis: Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project

Index Value from analysis Units Net Present Value of Project (NPV @ 12%) 28,224.08 Baht Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) 32.17 % Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) 3.29 Remark: Consultant.

It can be concluded that this Project significant passes the Economic Measurement Index.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-9 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Table 3.4-2 Detail of Economic Analysis: Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-10 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

3.5 Financial Suitability Study

3.5.1 Assumptions to Financial Analysis

Assumptions to Financial Analysisn are as follows;

1) Project analysis periods are 30 years include construction periods or from 2018-2051 ( which project will operate to service for N2 & EW section approximately in 2021 and N1 section in 2024)

2) Pricing to use in analysis: Constant Price in 2018 (Financial Price)

3) Discount Rate: 8.66% per year (In case of investment with Thailand Future Fund: TFF), specified by State Enterprise Policy Office, Ministry of Finance (MOF), on January 2018

4) Number of days per year are 335 days

5) Revenues which are used to calculate are net revenue which deducted VAT 7%

3.5.2 Cost Estimate Investment and Operations

1) Investment Estimates

Table 3.5-1 Summary of Project Financial Cost: Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Unit: Million Baht Amount (At constant price: year 2018) Feasibility Study & Detail Design 229.00 Land Acquisition 59.00 Compensation for Buildings 36.00 Construction Cost Expressway Systems 18,371.00 Motorway and Road Works 4,137.00 Construction Supervision 320.00 Management and Maintenance Fees 8,284.00 Environmental Costs During Construction 114.00 Environmental Monitoring and Tracking 124.00 Total (From 2018-2050) 31,674.00 Source: Consultant.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-11 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Table 3.5-2 Investment Plan Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project (Financial Prices)

Land Acquisition & Construction Construction Operation & Environmental FS/EIA/ No. B.E. Compensation "N2 & EW + N1 Substitution" Supervision Maintenance Monitoring & Mitigation Total DD Land Buildings EXAT Cost DOH Cost "N2 & EW + N1" "N2 & EW + N1" Mitigation Monitoring 1 2561 114.50 114.50 2 2562 114.50 114.50

3 2563 -

4 2564 59.00 36.00 5,263.00 1,241.00 96.00 22.00 6,717.00

5 2565 6,471.00 1,448.00 112.00 46.00 8,077.00

6 2566 6,637.00 1,448.00 112.00 46.00 8,243.00

7 2567 212.00 4.60 216.60

8 2568 217.00 4.60 221.60

9 2569 223.00 4.60 227.60

10 2570 229.00 4.60 233.60

11 2571 256.00 4.60 260.60

12 2572 240.00 4.60 244.60

13 2573 281.00 4.60 285.60

14 2574 253.00 4.60 257.60

15 2575 259.00 4.60 263.60

16 2576 274.00 4.60 278.60

17 2577 272.00 4.60 276.60

18 2578 279.00 4.60 283.60

19 2579 286.00 4.60 290.60

20 2580 328.00 4.60 332.60

21 2581 323.00 4.60 327.60

22 2582 309.00 4.60 313.60

23 2583 317.00 4.60 321.60

24 2584 323.00 4.60 327.60

25 2585 333.00 4.60 337.60

26 2586 363.00 4.60 367.60

27 2587 385.00 4.60 389.60

28 2588 359.00 4.60 363.60

29 2589 368.00 4.60 372.60

30 2590 378.00 4.60 382.60

31 2591 409.00 4.60 413.60

32 2592 399.00 4.50 403.50

33 2593 409.00 4.50 413.50

รวม 229.00 59.00 36.00 18,371.00 4,137.00 320.00 8,284.00 114.00 124.00 31,674.00

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-12 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

3.5.3 Project Revenue Estimates

1) Classified by car types for collect toll

Basically the project revenue is calculated from a Traffic Volume multiply by its respective Toll [classified by Type of Vehicles namely Car (4 wheels), Medium Truck (6 wheels), and Heavy Truck (≥ 10 wheels)], which specify by Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT).

2) Consideration by using Average Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The toll rate to use for the future, Consultant define assumption to adjust toll rate by using Average Consumer Price Index (CPI) between 2 008 to 2017 which Average CPI = 2.50% every 5 years interval.

3) Revise Toll Rate in the future of project

1. CPI is 2.5% per year for every 5 years interval.

2. Rule of Revise Toll rate will use accumulated CPI during period before revise which multiply with toll rate of each type of car, result of this revise toll rate from multiply will bush up to 5 baht.

3. Rounding up the tolls if over 2.5 baht, give bush up, If less than 2.5 baht, round down.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-13 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Table 3.5-3 Toll Rate Classified by Car Types

N2 EW Expressway Budget Year 4 Wheels 6-10 Wheels > 10 Wheels 2017 0 0 0 2024 20 30 40 2029 25 35 45 2034 30 40 50 2039 35 45 55 2044 40 50 60 2049 45 55 70 2054 50 60 80 Remark: 1. CPI is 2.5% per year for every 5 years interval. 2. Rounding up the tolls if over 2.5 baht, give bush up, If less than 2.5 baht, round down.

Result of Analysis of traffic volume forecast and calculation the future of the project.

Case of N2 & EW and N1 Project Traffic Volume for N2 EW Expressway Budget Year 4 Wheels 6-10 Wheels > 10 wheels PCU (Car/Day) (Car/Day) (Car/Day) 2024 154,287 123,275 11,417 5,554 2029 172,689 137,978 12,779 6,217 2034 191,918 153,342 14,202 6,909 2039 204,003 162,999 15,096 7,344 2044 214,410 171,313 15,866 7,719 2054 225,347 180,052 16,676 8,112 2059 236,612 189,053 17,509 8,518

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-14 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Toll Revenue of N2 EW Budget Year 4 Wheels 6-10 Wheels > 10 Wheels Total (Baht/Day) (Baht/Day) (Baht/Day) (Baht/Day) (Baht/Year) 2024 2,465,500 342,510 222,160 3,030,170 1,015,106,950 2029 3,449,450 447,265 279,765 4,176,480 1,399,120,800 2034 4,600,260 568,080 345,450 5,513,790 1,847,119,650 2039 5,704,965 679,320 403,920 6,788,205 2,274,048,675 2044 6,852,520 793,300 463,140 8,108,960 2,716,501,600 2054 8,102,340 917,180 567,840 9,587,360 3,211,765,600 2059 9,452,650 1,050,540 681,440 11,184,630 3,746,851,050 Remark: Use 335 days for 1 year.

3.5.4 Financial Suitability Analysis

Consultant has defined assumption to use in suitability analysis by funding with Thailand Future Fund: TFF) detailed as follow Table 3.5-4.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-15 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Table 3.5-4 Standard Assumptions for Financial Analysis

Item Rate Unit Remark General Assumptions

Inflation Rate 2.50% Per year

Project Period 30 years (included construction period 3 years between 2021-2023) Discount Rate (Public Sector) 8.66% Refer from SEPO

Base Year Analysis 2018 Project Analysis period 2018-2050 Year Open 2024 Year End Project 2050 Numbers of Working Day per Year 335 days Benchmark FIRR FIRR > 8.66% Asset Life

Land infinite

Civil Structure

Expressway Construction 75 year

Construction of a crossroads 75 year

Road Construction 40 year Electrical/Mechanical Systems/toll 7 year Collection Systems Source: Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT)

3.5.5 Results of Financial Analysis

Results of Financial Analysis, in case of invest by using Thailand Future Fund: TFF) to construct this project of which the financial cost is at 8.66% Discount Rate, has financial return by collect revenue from project. Consultant has been analyzed and concluded as follow:

NPV is -9,581.51 Million Baht, R/C Ratio is 0.51 and FIRR is 1.61% as shown in Table 3.5-5.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-16 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Table 3.5-5 Results of Financial Analysis: The 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1

Index Financial Return Net Present Value (NPV) (Million Baht) -9,581.51 Revenue Cost Ratio: R/C Ratio 0.51 Financial Internal Rate of return: FIRR (%) 1.61 Remark: Discount Rate is 8.66%

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-17 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

Table 3.5-6 Cash Flow Statement in Case of investment with Thailand Future Fund (TFF)

999.09

946.85

905.61

858.97

791.92

766.28

712.89

686.02

646.55

607.09

567.02

114.50

FIRR

7,252.74

1,745.03

1,691.02

1,628.38

1,591.44

1,541.89

1,491.75

1,420.61

1,383.24

1,351.62

1,308.00

1,261.97

1,217.15

1,160.01

1,109.13

1,086.45

1,042.77

8,243.00

8,077.00

6,717.00

NCF forNCF

- -

200.12

210.44

221.61

233.14

245.00

257.17

269.62

283.42

297.59

312.10

326.88

341.89

357.55

373.35

389.22

405.03

420.66

434.91

448.48

461.14

472.63

482.65

495.66

507.30

517.25

525.10

530.44

10,020.37

Revenue

87.53

91.89

97.56

96.98

101.41

106.32

111.38

118.75

123.80

128.12

133.89

140.05

146.09

154.78

162.69

164.99

171.18

177.20

184.20

187.93

192.61

203.62

199.81

209.73

208.32

211.06

212.72

213.41

105.37

Present Value

5,008.03

5,332.14

4,818.33

Cost

19,601.89

948.70

3,101.67

3,001.65

2,909.08

2,816.50

2,723.93

2,631.36

2,538.79

2,456.09

2,373.38

2,290.68

2,207.98

2,125.28

2,045.48

1,965.68

1,885.88

1,806.08

1,726.28

1,642.54

1,558.80

1,475.07

1,391.33

1,307.59

1,235.81

1,164.03

1,092.25

1,020.48

53,442.39

Total Revenue

948.70

3,101.67

3,001.65

2,909.08

2,816.50

2,723.93

2,631.36

2,538.79

2,456.09

2,373.38

2,290.68

2,207.98

2,125.28

2,045.48

1,965.68

1,885.88

1,806.08

1,726.28

1,642.54

1,558.80

1,475.07

1,391.33

1,307.59

1,235.81

1,164.03

1,092.25

1,020.48

53,442.39

Toll Revenue

Financial RevenueFinancial (Million Baht)

982.69

946.01

908.13

885.47

856.55

799.43

763.31

727.19

695.69

653.20

616.10

599.40

541.31

522.92

478.01

445.70

413.39

381.68

114.50

1,356.63

1,310.63

1,280.70

1,225.07

1,182.04

1,139.61

1,118.18

1,072.85

1,021.77

8,243.00

8,077.00

6,717.00

46,189.64

Total Cost

943.13

907.13

867.10

842.47

809.44

776.01

728.58

705.25

684.17

655.09

624.41

594.53

557.87

523.95

508.83

479.71

450.59

417.09

389.60

358.50

313.80

296.71

262.32

244.41

218.10

191.79

165.08

MOF

14,515.64

sent tosent

Revenue

409.00

399.00

409.00

378.00

368.00

359.00

385.00

363.00

333.00

323.00

317.00

309.00

323.00

328.00

286.00

279.00

272.00

274.00

259.00

253.00

281.00

240.00

256.00

229.00

223.00

217.00

212.00

8,284.00

Operation &

Maintenance

4.50

4.60

124.00

Monitoring

Environmental

46.00

22.00

114.00

Mitigation

Environmental

96.00

112.00

320.00

Supervision

Construction

1,448.00

1,241.00

4,137.00

Financial CostFinancial of Project (Million Baht)

DOH Cost

Construction

6,637.00

6,471.00

5,263.00

18,371.00

EXAT CostEXAT

Construction

36.00

Buildings

Compensation

59.00

Land Land

Acquisition

114.50

229.00

FS/EIA/DD

B.E.

2593

2592

2591

2590

2589

2588

2587

2586

2585

2584

2583

2582

2581

2580

2579

2578

2577

2576

2575

2574

2573

2572

2571

2570

2569

2568

2567

2566

2565

2564

2563

2562

2561

Total

10 Year

Discount Rate 8.66%

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 3-18 Executive Summary Report Chapter 3 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Elevated Expressway

3.6 Investment Plan

The study had made conclusion as follow;

 Cash investment is not appropriate due to the need for large amount of cash which could effect the financial status of EXAT if the fund is come from EXAT’s income and the country budgetary could effect if taking fund from government.  For using bond, the government debt will increase public debt in long term.  EstablishmentInfrastructure Fund (IFF) andThailand Future Fund (TFF) is recommend method which will not increase public debt.

The comparison between IFF and TFF found out that the TFF which will issue by Ministry of Finance is the fastest method. EXAT do not need to have financial advisor and fee for establishing the fund. The government will guarantee the minimum return of investment. To setup TFF will have more confident from investor as the Ministry of Finance will be the first buyer and the process to establish the fund is faster to match with EXAT’s investment plan.

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Railway System

Chapter 4 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Railway System Chapter 4 Railway System

4.1 Alignment

The Brown Line project will be the feeder system for the main metro system of Bangkok as shown in Figure 4.1-1 and Figure 4.1-2. On Prasert Manukitch road, the Expressway System and the Brown Line project are locate on the same corridor, Figure 4.1-3 and Figure 4.1-4 show the alignment of the Brown Line System which have the length of 22.1 km.

Figure 4.1-1 Mass Transit and Expressway Network

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Figure 4.1-2 The alignment of the Brown Line System from Khae Rai to Lam Sali and the Northern Expressway Stage 3 section N1 substitution, N2+EW

Picture of expressway and monorail structure on Prasert Manukitch road

Figure 4.1-3 Picture of the Brown Line Project and the Expressway System on Prasert Manukitch road

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Picture of Monorail Station on Prasert Manukitch road

Figure 4.1-4 Picture of Monorail Station on Prasert Manukitch road

The expressway system elevation is on level 3 above the Brown Line project on Prasert Manukitch road, shown in Figure 4.1-5. The Expressway System will use existing foundation whilst the railway system will have to construct new foundation locate between the expressway foundation. The track beam elevation will be 10.5 above the road with the soffit of girder will be 9.5 m. higher from the track beam.

The configuration is for information at preliminary design phase, the final elevation shall be verify and determine during detailed design stage of both project.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 4-3 Executive Summary Report Chapter 4 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Railway System

Figure 4.1-5 General Configuration of Expressway and Railway System

4.2 General Concept of the Brown Line Project

4.2.1 Routing

The Brown Line project will be monorail which will start from Khae Rai intersection, interchange with Purple Line and Pink Line, heading eastward along Ngam Wong Wan road, crossover Khae Rai intersection, Sirat expressway, Phong Phet intersection, Bang Khen intersection, Kaset intersection then go throght Prasert Manukitch road crossing Lat Pla Khao intersection, Sena intersection, Sukhontha Sawat intersection, Chalong Rat interchange, Highway 350 intersection, Nawamin intersection turning southward along Nawamin road, crossing Pho Kao intersection, Sriburapa intersection, Happy Land intersection and Bangkapi intersection ending at Suanson intersection. The length of the Brown Line is 22.1 km

4.2.2 Track Viaduct

The railway will be elevated, most of the column are located on the middle of the road with two-way, single column. The track minimum distance is 3.7 m. on typical section and 8.0 m. on section under expressway. The Figure 4.2-1 and Figure 4.2-2 showing the

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 4-4 Executive Summary Report Chapter 4 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Railway System concept of viaduct on isolate section and Figure 4.1-3 to Figure 4.1-5 showing the concept of construction on Prasert Manukitch road.

Figure 4.2-1 Picture of the Brown Line Project on

Ngam Wong Wan road and Nawamin road

Figure 4.2-2 Picture of the Brown Line Project on Ngam Wong Wan road and Nawamin road

The level of track beam is on level 3. Except the section on Prasert Manukitch whereas the railway system will be located on level 2 under the expressway system. At kaset intersection the Brown Line project have to cross over green line mass transit system at level 4.

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At Chalong Rat interchange the Brown Line will cross with the Grey Line system which should have interchange or connection between this two systems, shown on Figure 4.2-3. At Nawamin junction the Brown Line alignment will shift from center line of Prasert Manukitch road to turn right to Nawamin road whereas the expressway will go eastward as shown in Figure 4.2-3 to Figure 4.2-5. The schematic of elevation of the Brown Line System which shown relative elevation to others system is shown in Figure 4.2-6.

Grey Line

Figure 4.2-3 Alignment of the Brown Line and Proposed the Grey Line Interchange Station at Chalong Rat Interchange

Figure 4.2-4 Alignment of the Brown Line at Nawamin Intersection

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Figure 4.2-5 Picture of the Brown Line Project at Nawamin Intersection

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Figure 4.2-6 General Elevation of the Brown Line

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4.3 Station

4.3.1 Station Location

There are 20 stations proposed for the Brown Line Project as show in Figure 4.3-1 and Table 4.3-1.

Figure 4.3-1 Location of Stations

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Table 4.3-1 Details location of stations

DISTANCE STATION No. STA ID STATION NAME CHAINAGE Remark (M.) TYPE NONTHABURI CIVIC 1 BR01 Purple/Pink CENTER 0+334 - 1 2 BR02 CHULA KASEM 1+360 1,026 4 3 BR03 KHLONG LAT YAO 2+722 1,362 1 4 BR04 CHINNAKHET 4+113 1,391 1 5 BR05 BANG KHEN 5+228 1,115 5 Red 6 BR06 KASETSART UNIV. 6+318 1,090 1 7 BR07 KASET INTESECTION 7+350 1,032 3 Green 8 BR08 KHLONG BANGBUA 8+401 1,051 4 9 BR09 LAT PLAKHAO 9+694 1,293 2 10 BR10 SENA 11+111 1,417 2 11 BR11 SATRIWITTHAYA 2 12+047 936 2 CHALONG RAT 12 BR12 Gray INTERCHANGE 13+161 1,114 1 13 BR13 KHLONG LAMCHIAK 14+732 1,571 2 14 BR14 NUAN CHAN 15+713 981 2 15 BR15 NAWAMIN 16+690 977 1 16 BR16 PHO KAEO 17+480 790 4 17 BR17 INDRARAK 18+440 960 1 18 BR18 NAWAMINPHIROM PARK 19+969 1,529 1 NATIONAL HOUSING 19 BR19 AUTHORITY 20+929 960 1 20 BR20 LAMSALI 22+017 1,088 1 Orange/Yellow

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Station BR-01 Location CH. 0+100.00 on the middle of the road Landmarkd Nonthaburi administration office, ThaiCom’s office, NCTB’s new office

Station BR-02 Location CH. 1+600.00 on the center of the road Landmark : The trust building, SCB, Ngam Wong Wan soi 5, Ngam Wong Wan soi 7

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Station BR-03 Location CH. 2+950.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Pantip , Bangkok bank, Thai military bank, Ngam Wong Wan post office, The mall Ngam Wong Wan

Station BR-04 Chinnaketh (Station Type No.1) Location CH. 4+350.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Soi Chinnaketh

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Station BR-05 Location CH. 5+450.00 on the north side of road, connect to red line Landmarks : PEA headquarter, Vibhavadi hospital, Kasetsart university

Station BR-06 Location CH. 6+550.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Kasetsart university, Tops market, Primeo Metro condominium

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Station BR-07 Location CH. 7+575.00 on the middle of the road, connect to green line Landmarks : Kaset intersection, Post Engineering department, Supalai park, Kasersart University

Station BR-08 Location CH. 8+650. On the middle of the road Landmarks : Animal hospital kaset-Nawamin, Metro lux Kaset, I-condo kaset, Bangnua canal

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Station BR-09 Location CH. 9+900.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : PTT gas station, Ford Kaset-Nawamin, Phanakorn automobile.

Station BR-10 Location CH.11+350.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Nawamin city avenue, Nawamin festival walk, Prasert Manukitch 18

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Station BR-11 Location CH. 12+275.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Satri wittaya 2 school, Sakhorn-sun prachason temple, gas station, Areeya village

Station BR-12 Location CH. 13+390.00 on the reclaim area, connect to grey line Landmarks : The walk nawamin

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Station BR-13 Location CH. 14+950.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Boon tavorn kaset, Lertlah school, Grand Bangkok Boulevard village.

Station BR-14 Location CH. 15+895.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : soi Promp chun, Isuzu sima city, Sin Thani 3 village

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Station BR-15 Location CH. 16+940.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : SCB, Suzuki shop, Thanasin nawamin village

Station BR-16 Location CH. 17+700.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Vibaa-ram Nawamin, Shell gas station, Lotus Express Phokaew

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Station BR-17 Location CH. 18+660.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Bang Chak gas station, Klong kum post office, Khlong Chun villa villag

Station BR-18 Location CH. 20+190.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : Happly Land housing, Nawamin-Happyland junction.

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Station BR-19 Location CH. 21+150.00 on the middle of the road Landmarks : National Housing Head office, Khlong Chun stadium, Ban-Bangkapi schoo

Station BR-20 Location CH. 22+150.00 On the land reclamation area, connect to orange and Yellow Line Landmarks : Bangkapi junction, Pantip Plaza Bangkapi, Bangkapi district office

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4.3.2 Interchange Station

The Brown Line Project will have 7 interchanges with other mass transit systems as shown in Table 4.3-2.

Table 4.3-2 Location of Interchange Station

Station ID Station name Name Interchange Line BR-01 Nonthaburi administration center Purple line and pink line BR-05 Bangkhen Red line BR-07 Kaset junction Green line BR-12 Chalong Rat interchange Grey line BR-20 Lumsali Orange line and yellow line

Figure 4.3-2 Interchange Location with other Railway Line

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4.4 The Railway System

The monorail is the most suitable system for the Brown Line project due to constrain from the construction area which it has to be built under the expressway and limited area for depot. It is estimate to use 23 train of 4 cars when open on 2025 and increase to 34 trains in 2035

Table 4.4-1 Summary of Passenger of the Brown Line 2025-2055 Ridership Average travel Transfer from Line load Year Direct Total distance other line (pass-trip/hr.) (pass-trip/day) (pass-trip/day) (km.) (pass-trip/day) 2025 165,572 52,975 218,547 9,852 7.63 2030 188,413 80,229 268,642 11,004 7.61 2035 212,527 103,827 316,354 12,686 7.67 2040 233,748 122,997 356,745 14,033 7.70 2045 247,102 138,799 385,901 15,022 7.74 2050 255,811 151,280 407,091 15,755 7.77 2055 263,790 163,096 426,886 16,438 7.80

Table 4.4-2 Estimation of Trains and Headway total number train 4 car consisted/ number 716 passengers/ train of spares capacity = 6 person/ sqm of trains trains 4.2 min 10,229 persons/ hours 2568-2577 19 2 21 3.8 min 11,306 persons/ hours 2568-2577 21 2 23 3.2 min 13,425 persons/ hours 2578- 25 2 27 2.9 min 14,814 persons/ hours 2583- 27 2 29 Headway min (mins) 2.7 15,912 persons/ hours 2588- 29 2 31 2.5 min 17,184 persons/ hours 2593- 32 2 34 2.5 min 17,184 persons/ hours 2578-2597 32 2 34 2 min 21,480 persons/ hours 39 2 41 1.5 min 28,640 persons/ hours 52 2 54 Souce : Consultants

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Figure 4.4-1 Monorail Straddle Type System

The depot is essential as it is the location for stabling, maintenance, repair and situate the control center. The depot is locate at the end of line next to station BR-20, the area is about 40 rai. The park and ride is also located at this location under the depot.

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Figure 4.4-2 Depot of the Brown Line

4.5 Investment Plan The cost estimate for construction and operation were done according to the suitable investment plan. It is expect to start operation in 2025 and concession for 30 years which will end in 2055. 4.5.1 Land Acquisition Cost The cost for land acquisition was shown in Table 4.5-1. This preliminary cost estimate cover cost of land, building and others compensation for the land owner.

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Table 4.5-1 Land Acquisition Cost of the Brown Line Base year 2018 Item Area (rai) / Building (nos.) Amount (million bath) Land 76 rai 2 nguan 71 wa 6,115.3 Building 268 (nos) 1,113.4 Total 7,228.7

4.5.2 Construction Cost (include construction supervision and environmental mitigation)

Table 4.5-2 Project Cost Estimate

Amount Item (million bath) 1. Land acquisition cost 7,254 1.1 Station and route line 4,822 1.2 Depot 2,407 1.3 Land acquisition survey 25 2. Construction Cost 34,675 2.1 Civil works 2.1.1 Viaduct and station 15,018  General 590  Design 171  Viaduct 2,590  Roadway and drainage 620  Station and interchange facilities 9,780  Utility relocation 1,210 2.1.2 Depot and park and ride building 1,984  Design 34  Depot building 420  Park and ride building 1,530 2.1.3 Lift and escalator 1,140 Total cost of civil works 18,142 2.2 Railway system 2.2.1 Railway 10,220  Signalling 1,506  Power Supply & Conductor rails 2,593  Communication and SCADA 1,562  Track switches Mainline 499  Track switches Depot 749

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Amount Item (million bath)  Guideway Beam 2,150  Platform Screen Door 529  Depot workshop equipment & maintenance vehicles 632 2.2.2 AFC 1,075 2.2.3 Rolling stocks 5,238 Total cost of railway system 16,533 3 . Consulting cost 1,255 3.1 PMC 520 3.2 CSC civil works 455 3.3 CSC railway system 280 4. Provisional Sum 5,202 4.1 Contingency 1,734 4.2 Price Escalation 3,468 Grand Total 48,386 Remark : 1) include VAT 7%

4.6 Economic Analysis

From data in Table 4.6-1 and Table 4.6-2, it can be concluded that Project passes Economic feasibility analysis with significant criteria in conclusion as follow:  Net Present Value of Project is 34,835.90 Million Baht  EIRR is 22.39%  Benefit Cost Ratio: B/C Ratio is 2.19

Table 4.6-1 Results of Economic Analysis

Index Value from analysis Units Net Present Value of Project (NPV @ 12%) 34,835.90 Million Baht Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) 22.39 % Benefit Cost Ratio 2.19 Ratio Remark: Consultant.

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Table 4.6-2 Detail Economic Analysis of the Brown Line Railway Project : Khae Rai - Lam Sali Section

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4.7 Suitability Study for Financial and Investment

4.7.1 Estimated Expenditures Investment and Operation Costs

4.7.1.1 Estimated Expenditures

Estimated Initial investment and operation cost for project are estimated by refer from construction price, material costs and operation expenditures of other projects which nearly with this project.

4.7.1.2 Estimated Investment Costs

Table 4.7-1 Summary of Project Financial Cost Unit: Million Baht Item Amount Feasibility Study & Detail Design 15.00 Land Acquisition & Compensation for Buildings 7,254.00 Consulting Cost - PMC 520.00 - CIVIL WORK 455.00 - M&E 280.00 Construction Cost (Civil Work) 21,347.99 Construction Cost (M&E) 21,059.57 Operation & Management 49,948.39 Environment Mitigation 164.00 Environment Monitoring 174.00 Total 109,262.67

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Table 4.7-2 Yearly Projected Investment

Environmental Consulting Cost Construction Cost Operation & Monitoring & Mitigation Yr Yr Land Yr FS/EIA Management Total BC AD acquisition

Civil Civil Rolling PMC M&E M&E Mitigation Monitoring Works Works Stock/E&M

1 2018 2561 10.00 ------10.00

2 2019 2562 5.00 ------5.00

3 2020 2563 - 7,254.00 ------7,254.00

4 2021 2564 - - 130.00 136.50 - 6,404.40 - - - 41.00 - 6,711.90

5 2022 2565 - - 130.00 182.00 56.00 8,539.20 - 1,571.40 - 41.00 - 10,519.60

6 2023 2566 - - 130.00 136.50 112.00 6,404.40 6,911.33 2,095.20 - 41.00 - 15,830.42

7 2024 2567 - - 130.00 - 112.00 - 6,379.69 1,571.40 - 41.00 - 8,234.09

8 2025 2568 ------914.52 - 5.80 920.32

9 2026 2569 ------943.77 - 5.80 949.57

10 2027 2570 ------974.01 - 5.80 979.81

11 2028 2571 ------1,005.28 - 5.80 1,011.08

12 2029 2572 ------1,037.59 - 5.80 1,043.39

13 2030 2573 ------1,071.01 - 5.80 1,076.81

14 2031 2574 ------1,105.56 - 5.80 1,111.36

15 2032 2575 ------1,141.28 - 5.80 1,147.08

16 2033 2576 ------1,178.22 - 5.80 1,184.02

17 2034 2577 ------1,385.98 - 5.80 1,391.78

18 2035 2578 ------652.57 2,806.72 1,429.72 - 5.80 4,894.82

19 2036 2579 ------1,474.93 - 5.80 1,480.73

20 2037 2580 ------1,521.63 - 5.80 1,527.43

21 2038 2581 ------1,569.91 - 5.80 1,575.71

22 2039 2582 ------2,580.37 - 1,619.79 - 5.80 4,205.96

23 2040 2583 ------1,671.35 - 5.80 1,677.15

24 2041 2584 ------1,724.64 - 5.80 1,730.44

25 2042 2585 ------1,779.73 - 5.80 1,785.53

26 2043 2586 ------1,836.67 - 5.80 1,842.47

27 2044 2587 ------264.32 - 1,895.53 - 5.80 2,165.65

28 2045 2588 ------1,956.38 - 5.80 1,962.18

29 2046 2589 ------2,019.29 - 5.80 2,025.09

30 2047 2590 ------2,084.33 - 5.80 2,090.13

31 2048 2591 ------2,151.58 - 5.80 2,157.38

32 2049 2592 ------69.49 - 2,221.12 - 5.80 2,296.41

33 2050 2593 ------2,293.02 - 5.80 2,298.82

34 2051 2594 ------2,367.38 - 5.80 2,373.18

35 2052 2595 ------2,444.28 - 5.80 2,450.08

36 2053 2596 ------2,523.81 - 5.80 2,529.61

37 2054 2597 ------4,201.79 - 2,606.07 - 5.80 6,813.66

รวม 15.00 7,254.00 520.00 455.00 280.00 21,347.99 21,059.57 8,044.72 49,948.39 164.00 174.00 109,262.67

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4.7.2 Estimated Revenues of Project

Basically the project revenue is calculated from Volume of passengers multiply by its respective Fare. The revenue of project is analyzed as follow:

(1) Fare Rate

Fare rate is very important factor to initiate to project revenue and also leads to volume of passengers which will use electric train system. In the analysis financial suitability and volume of passenger estimation, Consultant uses fare structure followed from MRT Assessment Standardization: Boarding charge is 13 .50 Baht Distance charge is 2 .5 0 Baht/Km (Price at 2 01 8 ) and Fare rate will increase 2.5% per year as shown in Table 4.7-3.

Table 4.7-3 Fare Rate from 2018-2055

Fare Year Boarding Charge (Baht) Distance Charge (Baht/Km) 2018 13.5 2.5 2025 16.0 3.0 2030 18.2 3.4 2035 20.5 3.8 2040 23.2 4.3 2045 26.3 4.9 2050 29.8 5.5 2055 33.7 6.2 Remark: * 13.5 Baht is equal to 10 Baht in 2001, 2.5 Baht/Km. Is equal to 1.8 Baht/Km. In 2001, increase future fare rate by follow inflation rate 2.5% per year Source: Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

(2) Volume of Passenger

Result of Volume of Passengers Analysis (Passenger-Trip/day) and Result of Volume of passengers Forecasting of Brown Line x Distance from 2025 to 2055 is as shown in Table 4.7-4.

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Table 4.7-4 Summary of Volume of Passengers Forecasting and Volume of Transfer Passengers of the Brown Line from 2025-2050

Volume of Transfer Total Volume of Volume of Passengers Year Passengers to Brown Line Passengers (Passenger-Trip/Day) (Passenger-Trip/Day) (Passenger-Trip/Day) 2025 165,572 52,975 218,547 2030 188,413 80,229 268,642 2035 212,527 103,827 316,354 2040 233,748 122,997 356,745 2045 247,102 138,799 385,901 2050 255,811 151,280 407,091 2055 263,790 163,096 426,886

(3) Project Revenue

Result of Fare Revenue Forecast from Volume of passengers Forecast in each year x Distance and combine Non-Fare Revenue which use 5% of Fare Revenue is as shown in Table 4.7-5.

Table 4.7-5 Project Revenue Forecast of the Brown Line

Revenue (Baht/Day) Total Revenue Year Boarding Charge Distance Charge Total (Baht/Year) 2025 2,649,152 5,009,657 7,658,809 2,565,701,149 2030 3,429,117 6,959,446 10,388,563 3,480,168,605 2035 4,356,804 9,236,871 13,593,674 4,553,880,797 2040 5,422,954 11,224,983 16,647,937 5,577,058,815 2045 6,498,783 13,443,743 19,942,526 6,680,746,043 2050 7,623,168 15,859,653 23,482,820 7,866,744,834 2055 8,889,723 18,790,117 27,679,840 9,272,746,333 Remark: Boarding chart count only passengers who use Brown Line Service, Not count passengers who transfer from other Line.

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4.8 Financial Suitability Analysis

Consultant has defined the assumption used in suitability analysis that the public sector will be wholly invested, funding by government budget as detailed in Table 4.8-1.

Table 4.8-1 Standard Assumptions for Financial Analysis

Item Rate Unit Remark General Assumptions Inflation Rate 2.50% per year Evaluation period 30 year Not included construction period 7 years Discount Rate (of Public Sector) 5% Base Year 2018 Project Analysis period 2018-2051 30 years (Not included 7 construction period 7 years) Opening year 2025 Ending year 2054 Numbers of Working Day per Year 335 days Benchmark FIRR FIRR > 5% Asset Life Land infinite Civil Structure Station & Depot 50 years Other Building 30 years Mechanical, signalling, train control & ICT 15 years Rolling Stock 30 years Source: MRT Assessment Standardization. 2010 and Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA)

Results of Financial Analysis at Discount Rate 5. 00% show that the financial return, calculated from revenue of Project, with Net Present Value of Project as of -1,712.62 Million Baht, Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) of 4.71% and Revenue Cost Ratio (R/C Ratio) of 0.97 as shown on Table 4.8-2 with details on Table 4.8-3.

Table 4.8-2 Results of Financial Analysis

Financial Return Index At Discount Rate 5% NPV (Million Baht) -1,712.62 FIRR (%) 4.71 R/C Ratio 0.97

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4.9 Investment Plan

The PPP net cost is the recommend type of investment similar to the Yellow line and the Pink line to reduce the investment and risk of government. The portion of private sector is responsible for investment operation and maintenance for railway system the estimate portion of private sector is 49.21%.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 4-33 Executive Summary Report Chapter 4 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Electric Train Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Railway System Table 4.8-3 FIRR Calculation for Calculate Revenue in Case of Distant Fare

FIRR 4.71% NPV -฿1,712.62 Million Baht R/C Ratio 0.97 Unit : Million Baht INVESTMENT STATEMENT INCOME STATEMENT

OPERATION & FARE OTHER INCOME Year Year BC FS&EIA Land Acquisition CONSULTANT CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION ROLLING STOCK ENVIRONMETAL ENVIRONMETAL TOTAL TOTAL NET TOTAL PMC Civil Works M&E Civil Works M&E MAINTENANCE MITIGATION MONITORING 1 2561 -10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - 10.00 - - - - 10.00 2 2562 -5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - 5.00 - - - - 5.00 3 2563 0.00 -7,254.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - 7,254.00 - - - - 7,254.00 4 2564 0.00 0.00 -130.00 -136.50 0.00 -6,404.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 -41.00 0.00 - 6,711.90 - - - - 6,711.90 5 2565 0.00 0.00 -130.00 -182.00 -56.00 -8,539.20 0.00 -1,571.40 0.00 -41.00 0.00 - 10,519.60 - - - - 10,519.60 6 2566 0.00 0.00 -130.00 -136.50 -112.00 -6,404.40 -6,911.33 -2,095.20 0.00 -41.00 0.00 - 15,830.42 - - - - 15,830.42 7 2567 0.00 0.00 -130.00 0.00 -112.00 0.00 -6,379.69 -1,571.40 0.00 -41.00 0.00 - 8,234.09 - - - - 8,234.09 8 2568 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -914.52 0.00 -5.80 - 920.32 2,565.70 128.29 2,693.99 1,773.66 9 2569 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -943.77 0.00 -5.80 - 949.57 2,748.59 137.43 2,886.02 1,936.45 10 2570 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -974.01 0.00 -5.80 - 979.81 2,931.49 146.57 3,078.06 2,098.25 11 2571 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,005.28 0.00 -5.80 - 1,011.08 3,133.49 156.67 3,290.17 2,279.09 12 2572 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,037.59 0.00 -5.80 - 1,043.39 3,297.28 164.86 3,462.14 2,418.74 13 2573 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,071.01 0.00 -5.80 - 1,076.81 3,480.17 174.01 3,654.18 2,577.37 14 2574 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,105.56 0.00 -5.80 - 1,111.36 3,694.91 184.75 3,879.66 2,768.30 15 2575 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,141.28 0.00 -5.80 - 1,147.08 3,909.65 195.48 4,105.14 2,958.05 16 2576 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,178.22 0.00 -5.80 - 1,184.02 4,124.40 206.22 4,330.62 3,146.59 17 2577 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,385.98 0.00 -5.80 - 1,391.78 4,339.14 216.96 4,556.10 3,164.32 18 2578 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -652.57 -2,806.72 -1,429.72 0.00 -5.80 - 4,894.82 4,553.88 227.69 4,781.57 - 113.25 19 2579 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,474.93 0.00 -5.80 - 1,480.73 4,758.52 237.93 4,996.44 3,515.72 20 2580 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,521.63 0.00 -5.80 - 1,527.43 4,963.15 248.16 5,211.31 3,683.87 21 2581 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,569.91 0.00 -5.80 - 1,575.71 5,167.79 258.39 5,426.18 3,850.47 22 2582 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,580.37 0.00 -1,619.79 0.00 -5.80 - 4,205.96 5,372.42 268.62 5,641.04 1,435.08 23 2583 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,671.35 0.00 -5.80 - 1,677.15 5,577.06 278.85 5,855.91 4,178.76 24 2584 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,724.64 0.00 -5.80 - 1,730.44 5,797.80 289.89 6,087.69 4,357.24 25 2585 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,779.73 0.00 -5.80 - 1,785.53 6,018.53 300.93 6,319.46 4,533.93 26 2586 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,836.67 0.00 -5.80 - 1,842.47 6,239.27 311.96 6,551.23 4,708.77 27 2587 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -264.32 0.00 -1,895.53 0.00 -5.80 - 2,165.65 6,460.01 323.00 6,783.01 4,617.36 28 2588 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1,956.38 0.00 -5.80 - 1,962.18 6,680.75 334.04 7,014.78 5,052.61 29 2589 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,019.29 0.00 -5.80 - 2,025.09 6,917.95 345.90 7,263.84 5,238.76 30 2590 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,084.33 0.00 -5.80 - 2,090.13 7,155.15 357.76 7,512.90 5,422.77 31 2591 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,151.58 0.00 -5.80 - 2,157.38 7,392.35 369.62 7,761.96 5,604.58 32 2592 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -69.49 0.00 -2,221.12 0.00 -5.80 - 2,296.41 7,629.55 381.48 8,011.02 5,714.61 33 2593 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,293.02 0.00 -5.80 - 2,298.82 7,866.74 393.34 8,260.08 5,961.26 34 2594 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,367.38 0.00 -5.80 - 2,373.18 8,147.95 407.40 8,555.34 6,182.16 35 2595 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,444.28 0.00 -5.80 - 2,450.08 8,429.15 421.46 8,850.60 6,400.52 36 2596 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2,523.81 0.00 -5.80 - 2,529.61 8,710.35 435.52 9,145.86 6,616.25 37 2597 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -4,201.79 0.00 -2,606.07 0.00 -5.80 - 6,813.66 8,991.55 449.58 9,441.12 2,627.46 NPV @ 0% - 15.00 - 7,254.00 - 520.00 - 455.00 - 280.00 - 21,347.99 - 21,059.57 - 8,044.72 - 49,948.39 - 164.00 - 174.00 - 109,262.67 167,054.70 8,352.74 175,407.44 66,144.77 NPV @ 5% -฿14.06 -฿6,266.28 -฿398.21 -฿356.76 -฿207.05 -฿16,738.66 -฿11,620.83 -฿5,077.72 -฿15,936.36 -฿125.59 -฿63.36 -฿56,804.87 ฿52,468.81 ฿2,623.44 ฿55,092.25 -฿1,712.62

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 4-34 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Development Plan

Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan Chapter 5 Development Plan

The results of the study show that the development of the Northern Third Stage Expressway N2 E-W corridor and N1substitution and the Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit System is necessary and cost effective to solve traffic problems for traveling west and east of Kanchanapisek road and to connect the mass transit network.

5.1 Development Plan and Implementation of the Expressway and the Brown Line System

The Northern Third Stage Expressway system N2 E-W corridor and N1 substitution are urgently needed. Ongoing studies of OTP will be carried out, as shown in Table 5.1-1, and the Brown Line Mass Rapid Transit System is shown in Table 5.1-2.

Table 5.1-1 Plan for the Northern Third Stage Expressway Project Work details Processing times Detailed design of the Northern Third Stage Expressway 12 months Jan 62 - Dec 62 N2 E-W corridor and N1 substitution Consideration for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), 12 months Jan 62 - Dec 62 the Third Stage Expressway, N1 substitution Detailed project improvement (EIA) N2 and E-W corridor 6 months Jan 62 - Jun 62 The issuance of the Royal Decree on land expropriation 18 months Jan 63 - Jun 64 (Land expropriation and ownership) Procurement of construction contractors 6 months Jan 64 - Jun 64 Project construction 36 months Jul 64 - Dec 67 Launch project Jan 68

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-1 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Table 5.1-2. Plan for the Brown Line Project

Work details Processing times Definitive design for the Brown Line Project 12 months Jan 62 - Dec 62

Consideration of Environmental Impact 12 months Jan 62 - Dec 62 Assessment (EIA) Implementation of the private equity 12 months Jan 62 - Dec 62 investment Act The issuance of the Royal Decree on land 18 months Jan 63 - Jun 65 expropriation. Land expropriation and ownership Investor selection 12 months Jan 63 - Dec 63 Design and construction and testing systems 36 months Jan 65 - Dec 67 Launch project Jan 68

5.2 Collaborative Model and Plan with the Brown Line Project

The study found that the demand in the western and eastern areas was higher than the existing road network, which was supported by severe traffic congestion. Having an expressway to accommodate west and east traffic will alleviate traffic congestion. It is expedient to accelerate the process of getting a personal vehicle and shipping In terms of demand for public transportation, it is found that the availability of the Brown Line Project will allow for the interconnection of the main mass transit system in accordance with the master plan for the mass transit system. There are more people using public transport. Therefore, the construction of the Brown Line Project will be appropriate in line with the mass transit system's launch plan with the Purple Line Project, Pink Line, Green Line, Yellow Line, Orange Line, is expected to be fully operational in 2566 B.E. The joint plan of the two projects is shown in Figure 5.2-1 to Figure 5.2-3. The intervals between the projects are the same, the total distance is about 5.7 km, as shown in Figure 5.2-4.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-2 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Figure 5.2-1 Operation Plan for the Expressway and the Brown Line Project

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-3 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Figure 5.2-2 Budget Plan for the Northern Third Stage Expressway System N2 E-W Corridor and N1 substitution

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-4 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Figure 5.2-3 Budget Plan for the Brown Line Project

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-5 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Figure 5.2-4 Map of the Expressway and the Brown Line Project

5.3 Formal Coordination with the Brown Line Project Due to the pattern of the project on the road of Prasert Manuakitch, the project area will be shared between the Northeastern Expressway Project and the Brown Line Project. Need to coordinate the project during the project is on the same since in the design stage of the expressway project with the definitive design of the Brown Line System. It should be done at the same time to be able to coordinate the details of the two projects.

1) Period of the Expressway Project and the Brown Line Project

The Northern Third Stage Expressway project with the Brown Line Project, there is a common space between the two projects for a distance of about 5.7 km. If the foundation can be built simultaneously, it will reduce the impact on the people from the construction. The design will have a pillar of the Brown Line Project inserted between the piers of the expressway that has already been constructed. The procedure is shown in Figure 5.3-1.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-6 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

1. Current condition

2. Construction the foundations of the railroad between the piers of the expressway

3. Construction the piers of the expressway 4. Construction the runway of the expressway

Figure 5.3-1. Construction Stages during the Expressway and the Brown Line Project

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-7 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

5. Expressway service

6. Construction the piers of the electric train

7. Construction the beam runway of the electric train

Figure 5.3-1. Construction Stages during the Expressway and the Brown Line Project (continue)

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-8 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

8. Structure of the expressway and the electric train when completed

Figure 5.3-1. Construction Stages during the Expressway and the Brown Line Project (continue)

2) Period only for the expressway project The construction of the precast segmental box girder can be carried out in the normal way, but for the N2 section, the expressway structure overlaps the Brown Line which have to be coordinated in the design process between the designer who are detailed design of the expressway project and the design of the Definitive Design of the electric train to ensure that the structure of the electric train can be constructed, including lifting and guideway beams, the structure of the two systems must not interfere with the operation of the project including both in the construction phase and when activated.

Precast segmental box girder is proposed for the expressway project. The construction phase of the Northern Third Stage Expressway system N2 E-W corridor and N1 substitution have the construction of the launching truss as shown in Figure 5.3-2.

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-9 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Stage 1 : After pouring the concret pole finished, installing a temporary structure for the pole head piece which are temporary support points for erection truss.

Stage 2 : Install erection truss.

Stage 3 : Bring the pieces of bridge beams assembled together.

Figure 5.3-2 Normal Construction Stages of the Expressway

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-10 Executive Summary Report Chapter 5 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Development Plan

Stage 4 : After finished the pieces of bridge beams assembled , welding the wet joint together.

Stage 5 : When the wet joint ,it hard then compressing force in the pre-stress wire.

Stage 6 : When the wet joint ,it hard then compressing force in the pre-stress wire.

Stage 7 : Repeat steps stage 2 through stage 6 until the bridge breams are complete.

Remark : Construction of the railing can be done only when the main part of the beam has been completed.

Figure 5.3-2 Normal Construction Stages of the Expressway (continue)

EPS  PP  DC  IEC  ENRICH 5-11 Executive Summary Report