Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents Contents Page Chapter 1 Introduction 1-1 1.1 Project Background 1-1 Chapter 2 Traffic Study and Rail Passenger Study 2-1 2.1 Traffic and Transportation Study 2-1 2.2 Forecast Rail Passenger 2-7 2.3 Forecast Traffic Volume of the Elevated Expressway Project 2-9 2.4 Impact on Traffic Condition at Kasetsart Junction, 2-12 Case : Expressway Project Chapter 3 Elevated Expressway 3-1 3.1 Overview 3-1 3.2 Entrance and Exit Design 3-4 3.3 Viaduct Structures 3-7 3.3.1 Preliminary Investment Plan of the 3rd Stage Expressway – North Line 3-8 3.3.2 Land Acquisition Cost 3-8 3.3.3 Construction Cost (Construction Supervision 3-8 and Environmental Cost included) 3.4 Economic Suitability Analysis 3-9 3.5 Financial Suitability Study 3-11 3.5.1 Assumptions to Financial Analysis 3-11 3.5.2 Cost Estimate Investment and Operations 3-11 3.5.3 Project Revenue Estimates 3-13 3.5.4 Financial Suitability Analysis 3-15 3.5.5 Results of Financial Analysis 3-16 3.6 Investment Plan 3-19 Chapter 4 Railway System 4-1 4.1 Alignment 4-1 4.2 General Concept of the Brown Line Project 4-4 4.2.1 Routing 4-4 4.2.2 Track Viaduct 4-4 4.3 Station 4-9 4.3.1 Station Location 4-9 4.3.2 Interchange Station 4-21 EPS PP DC IEC ENRICH -1- Executive Summary Report Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents Contents (cont’d) Page 4.4 The Railway System 4-22 4.5 Investment Plan 4-24 4.5.1 Land Acquisition Cost 4-24 4.5.2 Construction Cost (include construction supervision 4-25 and environmental mitigation) 4.6 Economic Analysis 4-26 4.7 Suitability Study for Financial and Investment 4-28 4.7-1 Estimated Expenditures Investment and Operation Costs 4-28 4.7-2 Estimated Revenues of Project 4-30 4.8 Financial Suitability Analysis 4-32 4.9 Investment Plan 4-33 Chapter 5 Development plan 5-1 5.1 Development Plan and Implementation of the Expressway 5-1 and the Brown Line System 5-1 5.2 Collaborative Model and Plan with the Brown Line Project 5-2 5.3 Formal Coordination with the Brown Line Project 5-6 EPS PP DC IEC ENRICH -2- Executive Summary Report Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents Table of contents Page Table 2.1-1 Trips Forecast of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region 2-1 Table 2.1-2 Mode Share from the Rail Mass Transit Master Plan in 2029 2-2 Table 2.1-3 Traffic Index of Road Network in Influence Area by Year 2051 2-6 Table 2.1-4 Total Demand by Mode Share in W-E Corridor by Year 2051 2-6 Table 2.2-1 Forecast Public Transport Demand by Rail Transit Year 2021-204 2-7 Table 2.2-2 Predict Summary Passenger Volume and Passenger Transfer 2-8 Volume Year 2025-2055 Table 2.3-1 Traffic Benefit of Road Network (A.M. Peak) During 2024-205 2-10 Table 3.3-1 Acquisition Cost B.E. 2561 3-8 The 3rd Stage Expressway, North Line – N1 Substitution, N2, EW Corridor-East Side Table 3.3-2 Project Construction Cost 3-8 Table 3.4-1 Results of Financial Analysis: 3-9 Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Table 3.4-2 Detail of Economic Analysis: 3-10 Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Table 3.5-1 Summary of Project Financial Cost: Northern 3rd Stage 3-11 Expressway System N2 & EW and N1 Project Table 3.5-2 Investment Plan Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System 3-12 N2 & EW and N1 Project (Financial Prices) Table 3.5-3 Toll Rate Classified by Car Types 3-14 Table 3.5-4 Standard Assumptions for Financial Analysis 3-16 Table 3.5-5 Results of Financial Analysis: 3-17 Northern 3rd Stage Expressway System N2 & EW and N1) Table 3.5-6 Cash Flow Statement in Case of investment with Thailand Future Fund (TFF) 3-18 Table 4.3-1 Details location of stations 4-10 Table 4.3-2 Location of Interchange Station 4-21 Table 4.4-1 Summary of Passenger of the Brown Line 2025-2055 4-22 Table 4.4-2 Estimation of Trains and Headway 4-22 Table 4.5-1 Land Acquisition Cost of the Brown Line 4-25 Table 4.5-2 Project Cost Estimate 4-25 Table 4.6-1 Results of Economic Analysis 4-26 EPS PP DC IEC ENRICH -3- Executive Summary Report Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents Table of contents (cont’d) Page Table 4.6-2 Detail Economic Analysis of the Brown Line Railway System Project : 4-27 Khae Rai-Lumsali Section Table 4.7-1 Summary of Project Financial Cost 4-28 Table 4.7-2 Yearly Projected Investment 4-29 Table 4.7-3 Fare Rate from 2018-2055 4-30 Table 4.7-4 Summary of Volume of Passengers Forecasting and Volume of 4-31 Transfer Passengers of the Brown Line from 2025-2050 Table 4.7-5 Project Revenue Forecast of the Brown Line 4-31 Table 4.8-1 Standard Assumptions for Financial Analysis 4-32 Table 4.8-2 Results of Financial Analysis 4-32 Table 4.8-3 FIRR Calculation for Calculate Revenue in Case of Distant Fare 4-34 Table 5.1-1 Plan for the Northern Third Stage Expressway Project 5-1 Table 5.1-2 Plan for the Brown Line Project 5-2 EPS PP DC IEC ENRICH -4- Executive Summary Report Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents Figure of contents Page Figure 1.1-1 Route Alignment of the Brown Line Electric Train Project 1-2 Figure 1.1-2 Route Alignment of the E-W Corridor Expressway Project 1-3 Figure 1.1-3 The Brown Line Electric Train Project 1-4 Figure 1.1-4 The Brown Line and the Expressway on Prasert Manukitch Road 1-4 Figure 1.1-5 The Brown Line and the Expressway on Prasert Manukitch Road 1-5 Figure 1.1-6 The Brown Line and the Expressway at Nawamin Intersection 1-5 Figure 2.1-1 Road Network System and the Main Expressway 2-3 in the Bangkok Outer Ring Road Figure 2.1-2 Traffic Demand and Available Capacity, Without Project Case 2-4 Figure 2.1-3 Traffic Demand and Available Capacity, With Project Case 2-5 Figure 2.3-1 Traffic Volume Elevated Expressway Project 2-9 in Case of Alternative 4 (A.M. Peak) Figure 2.3-2 V/C Ratio of Alternative 4 Comparative with Without Project 2-11 Figure 3.1-1 The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between 3-2 Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road - 1/2 Figure 3.1-2 The Missing Link, the elevated expressway linked between 3-2 Srirat - Western Bangkok Outer Ring Road Elevated Expressway and Utra Phimuk Elevated Toll Road - 2/2 Figure 3.1-3 The N2 and E-W Corridor Sections of the 3rd Stage Expressway 3-3 Figure 3.1-4 The Entire Route of East-West Elevated Expressway 3-3 Figure 3.1-5 Route of Project 3-4 Figure 3.2-1 Entrance and Exit Ramps 3-5 Figure 3.2-2 System Interchange with Chalong Rat Expressway and its toll system 3-6 Figure 3.2-3 System interchange with Eastern Bangkok Outer Ring Road and its toll system 3-6 Figure 3.3-1 Conceptual Design of Combination Section on Prasert Manukitch Road 3-7 Figure 4.1-1 Mass Transit and Expressway Network 4-1 Figure 4.1-2 The alignment of Brown Line System from Khae Rai to 4-2 Lum Sali and the Northern Expressway Stage 3 section N1 substitution, N2+EW Figure 4.1-3 Picture of Brown Line Project and Expressway System 4-2 on Prasert Manukitch road EPS PP DC IEC ENRICH -5- Executive Summary Report Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai - Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Contents Figure of contents (cond’t) Page Figure 4.1-4 Picture of Monorail Station on Prasert Manukitch road 4-3 Figure 4.1-5 General Configuration of Expressway and Railway System 4-4 Figure 4.2-1 Picture of the Brown Line Project on 4-5 Ngam Wong Wan road and Nawamin road Figure 4.2-2 Picture of the Brown Line Project on 4-5 Ngam Wong Wan road and Nawamin road Figure 4.2-3 Alignment of Brown Line and 4-6 Proposed Grey Line interchange Station at Chalong Rat Interchange Figure 4.2-4 Alignment of Brown Line at Nawamin Intersection 4-6 Figure 4.2-5 Picture of Brown Line Project at Nawamin Intersection 4-7 Figure 4.2-6 General Elevation of Brown Line 4-8 Figure 4.3-1 Location of Station 4-9 Figure 4.3-2 Interchange location with other Railway line 4-21 Figure 4.4-1 Monorail Straddle Type System 4-23 Figure 4.4-2 Depot of Brown Line 4-24 Figure 5.2-1 Operation Plan for the Expressway and 5-3 the Brown Line Project Figure 5.2-2 Budget Plan for the Northern Third Stage Expressway System N2 E-W 5-4 Corridor and N1 substitution Figure 5.2-3 Budget Plan for the Brown Line Project 5-5 Figure 5.2-4 Map of the Expressway and the Brown Line Project 5-6 Figure 5.3-1 Construction Stages during the Expressway 5-7 and the Brown Line Project Figure 5.3-2 Normal Construction Stages of the Expressway 5-10 EPS PP DC IEC ENRICH -6- Executive Summary Report ข Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 1 Feasibility Study of the Brown Line Project between Khae Rai – Lam Sali (Bueng Kum) Introduction Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Project Background According to a resolution of the cabinet meeting on 17th April 2018, the cabinet acknowledged a solution to use the existing constructed piers at the middle of Prasert Manukitch Road, concluded in the Commission for the Management of Road Traffic meeting no.