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China Telecom 728 HK Outperform 2016: Capex Cut, but Not Deep Enough Price (At 05:20, 22 Mar 2016 GMT) HK$3.90

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China Telecom 728 HK Outperform 2016: Capex Cut, but Not Deep Enough Price (At 05:20, 22 Mar 2016 GMT) HK$3.90 HONG KONG China Telecom 728 HK Outperform 2016: capex cut, but not deep enough Price (at 05:20, 22 Mar 2016 GMT) HK$3.90 Valuation HK$ 4.30 Event - DCF 12-month target HK$ 4.30 . China Telecom’s 2015 net profit came in ahead of market expectations. We Upside/Downside % +10.3 believe guidance for a capex cut is not deep enough to impress the market. 12-month TSR % +12.5 Volatility Index Medium Impact GICS sector . Financial highlights. For 2015, China Telecom reported operating revenues Telecommunication Services of RMB331.2bn (+2.1% y-y), EBITDA of RMB94.1bn (-0.8% y-y) and net profit Market cap HK$m 315,636 of RMB20.1bn (+13.4% y-y). We note the company’s net profit came in ~5% Market cap US$m 41,022 30-day avg turnover US$m 21.6 above market expectation. The company declared final DPS of HK$0.095 Number shares on issue m 80,932 (2014: HK$0.095). Investment fundamentals . Positive: While the mobile service revenue for Mobile and Unicom fell Year end 31 Dec 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E 1.2% and 8.0% y-y, respectively, Telecom reported +3.5% y-y for its Revenue bn 324.4 351.8 380.6 400.7 mobile service revenue. Due to implementation of VAT and “one-month EBIT bn 28.5 30.4 36.0 42.2 EBIT growth % 3.8 6.8 18.4 17.2 mobile data carry-over” initiative, mobile service revenue for domestic Reported profit bn 17.7 20.5 24.6 29.3 operators were under pressure in 2015. One bright spot of China Telecom is Adjusted profit bn 17.7 20.5 24.6 29.3 EPS rep Rmb 0.22 0.25 0.30 0.36 its mobile service revenue grew y-y while the other two operators’ mobile EPS rep growth % 0.8 16.1 19.7 19.2 service revenue fell y-y. EPS adj Rmb 0.22 0.25 0.30 0.36 EPS adj growth % 0.8 16.1 19.7 19.2 . Positive: China Telecom still has work to do in terms of enhancing its PER rep x 14.9 12.8 10.7 9.0 PER adj x 14.9 12.8 10.7 9.0 4G ARPU. For 2015, China Telecom’s 4G ARPU was RMB78. Recall, the Total DPS Rmb 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 comparative figures for China Mobile and China Unicom were RMB85 and Total div yield % 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 ROA % 5.2 5.3 6.0 6.7 RMB88. As Telecom aims to expand its 4G subscriber base by another 60m ROE % 6.2 6.9 7.9 8.8 in 2016, we believe the key is whether the company can enhance its 4G EV/EBITDA x 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 Net debt/equity % 29.4 33.4 33.0 27.1 ARPU (via higher data usage). P/BV x 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 . Negative: China Telecom guided its capex to drop 11.1% y-y in 2016. We 728 HK rel HSI performance, & rec believe the market may not be satisfied with the magnitude. Recall, China history Telecom began its 4G rollout much earlier than China Unicom. While Unicom is guiding for 44% y-y decline of its capex spend to RMB75bn, Telecom is only guiding for 11% y-y decline of capex spend. In our view, the market may not be satisfied with the capex cut. The street may interpret the capex efficiency is not optimal at China Telecom. Earnings and target price revision . Our estimates are under review. Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Price catalyst Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2016 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD) . 12-month price target: HK$4.30 based on a DCF methodology. Catalyst: 1Q16 results to be released in late April. Analyst(s) Action and recommendation Macquarie Capital Limited Danny Chu, CFA . In 2016, we expect: (1) lower-than-expected ARPU uplift after the launch of +852 3922 4762 [email protected] 4G service; (2) stagnant revenue trends of the wireline business; (3) lack of Susana So +852 3922 1108 [email protected] material EBITDA margin expansion; (4) capex remaining at a high level and Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited becoming a drag on free cashflow; (5) potential slowdown of transformation Nathan Ramler, CFA due to loss of key management. +81 3 3512 7875 [email protected] 23 March 2016 Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research China Telecom For 2015, China Telecom reported operating revenues of RMB331.2bn (+2.1% y-y), EBITDA of RMB94.1bn (-0.8% y-y) and net profit of RMB20.1bn (+13.4% y-y). With the company’s operating revenues, we note mobile service revenues came in at RMB124.5bn (+3.5% y-y) while wireline service revenues came in at RMB168.8bn (+1.0% y-y). We note the company’s net profit came in ~5% above market expectation. The company declared final DPS of HK$0.095 (2014: HK$0.095). Key takeaways from results and analyst briefing We present our three major takeaways from China Telecom’s 2015 financial results: While the mobile service revenue for Mobile and Unicom fell 1.2% and 8.0% y-y, respectively, Telecom reported +3.5% y-y for its mobile service revenue. Due to implementation of VAT and “one-month mobile data carry-over” initiative, mobile service revenue for domestic operators were under pressure in 2015. One bright spot of China Telecom is its mobile service revenue grew y-y while the other two operators’ mobile service revenue fell y-y. China Telecom still has work to do in terms of enhancing its 4G ARPU. For 2015, China Telecom’s 4G ARPU was RMB78. Recall, the comparative figures for China Mobile and China Unicom were RMB85 and RMB88. As Telecom aims to expand its 4G subscriber base by another 60m in 2016, we believe the key is whether the company can enhance its 4G ARPU (via higher data usage). China Telecom guided its capex to drop 11.1% y-y in 2016. We believe the market may not be satisfied with the magnitude. Recall, China Telecom began its 4G rollout much earlier than China Unicom. While Unicom is guiding for 44% y-y decline of its capex spend to RMB75bn, Telecom is only guiding for 11% y-y decline of capex spend. In our view, the market may not be satisfied with the capex cut. The street may interpret the capex efficiency is not optimal at China Telecom. Fig 1 China Telecom – quarterly financial results 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 FY14 FY15 Revenue (RMB m) 83,184 82,789 77,635 80,786 81,453 83,500 81,364 84,885 324,394 331,202 q-q change (%) (0.3) (0.5) (6.2) 4.1 0.8 2.5 (2.6) 4.3 y-y change (%) 6.9 3.9 (3.8) (3.1) (2.1) 0.9 4.8 5.1 2.1 EBITDA (RMB m) 25,085 25,453 24,255 20,060 24,525 26,214 25,774 17,593 94,853 94,106 q-q change (%) 14.8 1.5 (4.7) (17.3) 22.3 6.9 (1.7) (31.7) y-y change (%) 0.6 1.1 (1.4) (8.2) (2.2) 3.0 6.3 (12.3) (0.8) EBITDA margin (%) 30.2 30.7 31.2 24.8 30.1 31.4 31.7 20.7 29.2 28.4 Net profit (RMB m) 5,547 5,889 4,733 1,511 5,046 5,934 5,381 3,693 17,680 20,054 q-q change (%) 95.9 6.2 (19.6) (68.1) 234.0 17.6 (9.3) (31.4) y-y change (%) 18.1 6.7 5.2 (46.6) (9.0) 0.8 13.7 144.4 13.4 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016 23 March 2016 2 Macquarie Research China Telecom As China Telecom rolled out its 4G network (FDD LTE technology) faster than China Unicom, China Telecom’s 4G subscriber base benefited. Since mid-2014, China Telecom began its active rollout of 4G network (based on FDD LTE technology). We believe China Unicom began its 4G network rollout in late 2014/early 2015. Due to China Telecom’s earlier 4G network rollout, the company gained 51.4m 4G net adds in 2015 (2014: 7.1m). At the analyst briefing, the company management indicated China Telecom’s target is to add ~60m 4G net adds in 2016. Fig 2 China Telecom – mobile subscriber base (2G/3G/4G) (m) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 FY14 FY15 Mobile subs 183.2 180.2 181.6 185.6 188.8 191.4 194.3 197.9 185.6 197.9 Net adds (2.4) (3.0) 1.3 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.9 3.6 0.0 12.3 2G subs 79.1 73.0 69.1 67.0 64.0 60.4 57.5 54.8 67.0 54.8 Net adds (3.4) (6.1) (3.9) (2.1) (3.0) (3.5) (2.9) (2.8) (15.5) (12.2) 3G subs 104.1 107.2 111.2 111.6 108.1 102.0 93.1 84.7 111.6 84.7 Net adds 1.0 3.1 3.9 0.4 (3.5) (6.1) (8.9) (8.4) 8.4 (26.9) 4G subs 0.0 0.0 1.3 7.1 16.8 29.0 43.7 58.5 7.1 58.5 Net adds 0.0 0.0 1.3 5.8 9.7 12.3 14.7 14.7 7.1 51.4 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016 Blended ARPU moved up slightly.
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