LOOKING OUTWARD: A CONSERVATIVE CANADA IN A NEW WORLD ORDER Charles McMillan The 2011 election produced a Conservative government that changed the nation’s political landscape, decimated the Liberal Party and reflects suburban Canada and the new industrial growth centres across the country. Instead of turning policy issues into a political calculus, the new cabinet and Parliament itself will require non- ideological policy agility at home and clever diplomacy abroad. In policy terms, in a global world, Canada will do well as an outward-looking, exporting nation selling high-value-added manufacturing and services as well as leading commodities with state-of-the-art technology and supply chains. The Harper agenda, in short, must focus mainly on economic competitiveness through a series of incremental measures. But the cumulative impact will be dramatic over the five- and ten-year horizons. La recomposition du paysage politique canadien opérée par l’élection d’un gouvernement conservateur majoritaire a laissé le Parti libéral en ruine tout en mettant en évidence le Canada suburbain et les nouveaux centres de développement industriel du pays. Face aux défis stratégiques qui les attendent, le nouveau Cabinet et le Parlement lui- même devront délaisser le calcul politique au profit d’une souplesse dénuée d’idéologie pour traiter les questions intérieures et d’une diplomatie avisée en matière d’affaires étrangères. En termes d’action, le Canada a tout à gagner en se positionnant en pays exportateur ouvert sur le monde, dont les entreprises à forte valeur ajoutée vendent des services et des produits de pointe fondés sur les dernières technologies et de solides chaînes d’approvisionnement. En clair, le gouvernement Harper doit donner priorité à la compétitivité du pays en adoptant un train de mesures progressives dont l’effet cumulatif sera pleinement ressenti à l’horizon des cinq à dix prochaines années. very generation, the politics of Canada faces a sea Brian Mulroney broke the Liberal stranglehold in 1984, not change in the electoral map. Just before the only gaining a huge national majority of 211 seats in what E Charlottetown Conference of 1864, John A. was then a 282-seat House, but legitimizing Conservative Macdonald and George-Étienne Cartier developed a new candidates in the 110 ridings with francophone pluralities, political alliance between Canada East and John A.’s Tories helped in part because many francophone voters thought in Canada West, and that pact brought them government he was a francophone. power for a generation. Wilfrid Laurier broke the back of the Now Stephen Harper, cleverly uniting the fractious con- Conservatives in his electoral victory of 1896, setting the servative forces in the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties Liberal Party as the true governing party for the 20th centu- with the remnants of the Progressive Conservative Party, ry, one of the most successful political machines in the dem- and surviving five years of a minority government, against ocratic world. Despite ups and downs, Mackenzie King three opposition parties, has gained uniquely a national continued Laurier’s coalition of francophones and strong majority with seats in every province. He has now decimat- regional ministers in each region, the pattern of every ed the Liberals in their two electoral fortresses, Ontario and Liberal prime minister from St-Laurent and Trudeau to Quebec, and they have virtually no support in western Chrétien and Martin, helped hugely by alternating fran- Canada, a cruel legacy of Trudeau’s National Energy cophone and anglophone leaders. Program. In the only area where his electoral fortunes are John Diefenbaker’s election sweep in 1958 was in some low, the province of Quebec, Harper has the chance to build respects always ill-fated, leaving the Conservatives with a a new Conservative base from scratch, without relying on western-based rump when the Tories left office in 1963. any machine “borrowed” from other parties, Mario POLICY OPTIONS 135 JUNE-JULY 2011 Charles McMillan Dumont’s ADQ, the provincial Liberal tor” seemed to be in play in key ridings the legacy of the sponsorship scandal, Party, or a few stray Créditistes, nation- in Ontario and British Columbia. The and continuing low standing in western alistes or independent voters in certain ordinary had become potentially Canada. While holding incumbent rid- ridings, including disgruntled federal extraordinary. As pundits know, a ings in Ontario, the island of Montreal Liberals. week is a long time in politics, as more and their core seats in Atlantic Canada, In short, Harper’s new majority coali- than 2.5 million Canadians shifted the Liberals hoped to make gains in BC, tion is truly widespread, by geography, by their voter allegiance toward the the Quebec City region and selected rid- ethnic and language support, among the Conservative and NDP candidates. ings in Ontario, helped by the provin- new urban voters in the bigger cities, and, Federal elections are sometimes cial Liberals. crucially, in the growth areas of Ontario decided in the final days. Armchair pre- But the NDP surge had changed these calculations, especially The “Jack factor” seemed to be in play in key ridings in Ontario with so many three-way and British Columbia. The ordinary had become potentially fights and fears of a low turnout, which tends to extraordinary. As pundits know, a week is a long time in favour incumbents. Political politics, as more than 2.5 million Canadians shifted their voter reality is often in short sup- allegiance toward the Conservative and NDP candidates. ply in political war rooms. For the NDP, the bad news and western Canada, which will gain at dictions ranged from a 1984 Brian may be that the chance to pick up Bloc least 28 new seats from redistribution. Mulroney-style blowout (never likely, seats in Quebec will provide the Winning a majority without seats in even if the Liberals collapsed to a Kim Conservative government with wedge Quebec — the subject of a controversial Campbell result), with Stephen Harper issues against their members outside memo to John Diefenbaker from his getting 200-plus seats, to a 1990 Bob Quebec. To most Canadians, the good national director, James Johnston in 1958 Rae NDP shocker with Jack Layton lead- news is that the Bloc’s support is coming — is now a mathematical certainty, with ing a minority government, a predic- to an end, remaining only as a political implications for all parties. tion made by Craig Oliver of CTV. The redoubt for old-line Parizeau separatists. Conservatives kept to their game plan The Prime Minister and his acing the last 14 days of the elec- and the Prime Minister kept his cool, Conservative organizers — a combina- F tion, Canadians seemed set to despite some adverse poll numbers, tion of western Reformers and Canadian return another minority Harper gov- knowing the reinforcement effect of Alliance street fighters, Mike Harris ernment. The Prime Minister had kept their massive TV and radio advertising operatives from Ontario and a select to a simple script — a stable majority would help close the deal. From the group of senators and constituency staff government instead of parliamentary beginning, they ran less a truly nation- from the Mulroney era — forged a for- coalition uncertainty and a jobs-ori- al campaign than one highly focused midable all-season election team, com- ented growth plan rather than tax- on about 30 targeted seats, hoping to bining the ruthless intensity of a Lee and-spend opposition platforms. retain their 142 seats but pick up anoth- Atwater-style desire to win with a Karl Then, like a bolt out of the blue — not- er 15 to 20 to give them a comfortable Rove-style understanding of the chang- ing two respectable national debates, but hardly overwhelming majority. ing political demographics of Canada excellent Radio-Canada TV appear- Suburban Toronto — the 905 belt — and in particular of suburban Canada ances by Jack Layton, a humdrum remained the best bet, with a few select- and the new industrial growth centres Gilles Duceppe campaign, a con- ed seats in Toronto and Montreal (tar- of Ontario. The once impregnable cities tentious televised Parti Québécois con- geting the Jewish vote), Atlantic like Windsor, London, Brampton, vention and a highly visible NDP Canada and BC. Hamilton and St. Catharines, federal Quebec voice, Tom Mulcair, Quebec Going into the campaign, the other Liberal fortresses since the Second voters decided to shift. And shift they parties had a ready-made strategy: keep World War, and the new high-growth did, in droves. The CROP poll gave the Harper from getting a majority. The (economic and population) areas, from NDP the first-place spot in Quebec. It NDP could hold at least its 37 seats and Waterloo and the region north of also gave Layton the same leadership pick up a few in Ontario and BC. The Toronto to Peterborough, were targeted attributes as the Prime Minister. Even Bloc could run its usual pro-Quebec as Conservative seats from the begin- though barroom chats were focused on mantra in mostly francophone ridings. ning. They joined western Canada, allo- the playoffs, water cooler conversation In one sense, the Liberals under Michael phones in Quebec and francophones entertained the possibility of the NDP Ignatieff had the least to lose, because within and outside Quebec by abandon- forming the official opposition in the chances of getting even a minority ing the Liberal Party, perhaps forever. Ottawa and getting the keys to government were lessened by their weak In retrospect, the Conservative team Stornoway. In addition, the “Jack fac- brand among francophones in Quebec, knew the real demographic numbers as 136 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2011 Looking outward: A Conservative Canada in a new world order the Liberals did not, so a series of policies better known for his political calculus use the oil sands to disguise deep-rooted and initiatives, from unwavering sup- than for his government agenda.