Long Term Planning Process: Regional Urban Market Study October 2013 What’S Inside This October 2013 Network Rail Regional Urban Market Study 02 Document
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Long Term Planning Process: Regional Urban Market Study October 2013 What’s inside this October 2013 Network Rail Regional Urban Market Study 02 document Foreword 03 Executive Summary 04 Chapter 01: Background 09 Chapter 02: Regional Urban Passenger Market description 14 Chapter 03: Study approach 19 Chapter 04: Literature review 20 Chapter 05: Strategic goals 23 Chapter 06: Long Term Demand Scenarios 26 Chapter 07: Long term conditional outputs – aspirations for 2043 41 Chapter 08: Consultation and Next Steps 49 Appendix A: Framework for developing service level conditional 51 outputs Appendix B: Service level conditional outputs for the East Midlands 53 and Norfolk Appendix C: Service level conditional outputs for the North East 112 Appendix D: Service level conditional outputs for the North West 133 Appendix E: Service level conditional outputs for the South West 199 Appendix F: Service level conditional outputs for the West Midlands 245 Appendix G: Service level conditional outputs for Yorkshire and 286 Humber Appendix H: Methodology for assessing the impact of improving 343 suburban services into an urban centre. Appendix I: Summary of demand forecasting methodology 347 Glossary 349 Foreword October 2013 Network Rail Regional Urban Market Study 03 I am pleased to introduce the completed Regional Urban Passenger The document has been strengthened as a result of the responses Market Study, following the Draft for Consultation which was to the Draft for Consultation and discussions with The Rail Delivery published in April 2013. This Market Study, together with the Long Group’s Planning Oversight Group and the Rail Industry Planning Distance Passenger, London & South East Passenger and Freight Group. For example further consideration has been given to the Market Studies, set out how demand for passenger and freight conditional outputs relating to HS2, airports and educational movement by rail is expected to change in each of these rail establishments and these have been expanded within the markets in Great Britain over the next 30 years. document. The Regional Urban market relates primarily to travel by large This study has been developed jointly with the wider rail industry numbers of people for commuting or leisure purposes in an area less including passenger and freight operators, Passenger Transport than 50 miles from a regional centre and this study seeks to Executives, Local Authorities, Local Enterprise Partnerships, the understand where rail can exploit its competitive advantages in Department for Transport and Welsh Government. I would like to best serving this market. Despite the recent recession, commuting thank all those parties and those organisations and individuals who demand into regional centres continues to grow as a result of modal have both responded to the Draft for Consultation and contributed shift from road to rail. It is anticipated that this growth will continue to the development of the Regional Urban Market Study. in the future. This Regional Urban Market Study builds on the work The next stage is the development of a series of Route Studies, undertaken by Network Rail for the Northern Hub, a series of which will develop options to deliver the conditional outputs, across outputs that are now being implemented which will deliver a step the four markets, in each of Network Rail’s devolved routes, and to change in connectivity benefits across the North of England. test them against funders’ appraisal criteria. The output will be a Equally the study takes cognisance of a number of committed series of choices for our funders to consider. electrification schemes across the North of England, around Bristol and in the East and West Midlands that will enable the development I look forward to continuing to work with the rail industry on the of new services using faster electric rolling stock. next stage of the Long Term Planning Process. The Regional Urban Market Study sets out the strategic goals for the sector before looking at the levels of demand that will need to Paul Plummer be accommodated over the medium and long term. Looking at each regional centre in turn, the study articulates how the railway is best Group Strategy Director placed to deliver ‘conditional outputs’ that would meet current and potential funders’ strategic goals for this market, using the methodology developed for the West Yorkshire example used in the Draft for Consultation. These conditional outputs show how the development of train services can support economic growth, reduce the transport sectors’ environmental impact, improve the quality of life for communities and individuals and meet outputs in an affordable way. Executive Summary October 2013 Network Rail Regional Urban Market Study 04 This Market Study seeks to understand where rail The rail industry has changed the way it approaches long term • Cross-Boundary analysis, which will consider options for services can best exploit its natural competitive planning. The new ‘Long Term Planning Process’ (LTPP) is designed that run across multiple routes to enable the industry to take account, and advantage of long term Route Studies, which will develop options for future services and advantage in the commuting market and to a strategic investment being made in Great Britain’s rail network. • for development of the rail network. lesser extent the leisure market for the overall This document, the ‘Regional Urban Market Study’, is one of four The LTPP will provide a key part of the evidence base for future wellbeing of Great Britain. Market Studies being published as a key element of the new LTPP. investment in the rail network. When established, this and the other Market Studies will form a key input to route planning and investment decision making over the Four Market Studies will be published: next 30 years. • London & South East passenger Scope and Context • Long Distance passenger Increasingly, long term strategic investments are being made in the rail network. These include plans for the development of a high • Regional Urban passenger speed line between London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, • Freight. implementation of modern signalling systems, the Crossrail and Thameslink programmes and electrification of significant parts of It is important to emphasise that each passenger Market Study will the system. consider a particular market, rather than a particular set of train services. Market Studies will have three key outputs: The balance of funders’ objectives has changed, both in the light of the tighter fiscal environment brought on by economic uncertainty • identification of the long term strategic goals which define the and as a result of the ‘Rail Value for Money Report’ (McNulty successful provision of rail services in the three passenger market report), published in May 2011. This has led to an increasing focus sectors on making best use of the rail network, and Governments are seeing • demand forecasts for the sector, over a 10 and 30 year horizon an increasing role for rail in supporting economic activity. • ’conditional outputs’ for the sector in terms of, for example, The LTPP has been designed to take these changes into account, frequency, journey time and/or passenger capacity on key flows. building on work completed in the preceding Route Utilisation Strategy process, and will enable an informed view to be taken of Markets that are relevant for the planning of train services or the role of rail in the economic life of Great Britain. Planning over 30 infrastructure within a single Route Study area, e.g. services years clearly involves uncertainties, however, the approach is operating wholly within Scotland or Wales, will be considered in designed to take into account strategic change in the economy, and more detail in the relevant Route Study. The outputs from the Great Britain’s approach to social and environmental responsibility, Market Studies will be conditional on both affordability and a value so that the rail industry can respond to change over the long term for money business case being determined. life of assets used to operate the rail network. The Freight Market Study will produce demand forecasts over a 10 There are three key elements to the LTPP: and 30 year planning horizon, with preferred routeing of services and the implied requirements in terms of network capacity and • Market Studies. These will articulate strategic goals for each capability. particular market sector, forecast future rail demand, and develop ‘conditional outputs’ Further information on the Long Term Planning Process can be found on Network Rail’s website at www.networkrail.co.uk. Executive Summary October 2013 Network Rail Regional Urban Market Study 05 Regional Urban Passenger Market Study approach The Regional Urban market relates to an area less than 50 miles The approach taken to produce this study was threefold: from a regional centre where people travel in large numbers a review of the published literature relating to rail industry primarily for the purpose of commuting and leisure. Commuting • funders’, stakeholders’ and passengers’ requirements for the trips in particular tend to be relatively short distance and a large Regional Urban passenger market number of leisure trips are also made over short distances into towns and cities. Whilst business trips are also important they make • an extensive and ongoing dialogue with stakeholders up a much smaller share of the rail market. Commuting trips in the primary research into the impact of improvements to rail Regional Urban market account for approximately 63 per cent of all • services on the wellbeing of Great Britain, building on previous trips made by rail, compared with 28 per cent leisure and 9 per cent work undertaken by the rail industry, Governments, and business. academic institutions. This Market Study seeks to understand where rail can best exploit The work to produce this study has been overseen by a Working its natural competitive advantage in the commuting market and to Group comprising train operators, funders and central a lesser extent the leisure market for the overall wellbeing of Great Governments, the Association of Train Operating Companies and Britain.