Hong Kong Office MarketView Q1 2013 CBRE Global Research and Consulting OVERALL HONG KONG CENTRAL HONG KONG ISLAND KOWLOON Rents -0.2% q-o-q Rents -1.5% q-o-q Rents -0.6% q-o-q Rents +0.8% q-o-q NEW SUPPLY ON THE HORIZON COULD BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE Hot Topics Current tight supply persist Three of the sites to be tendered in Oct 2013 - Mar 2014 are located in Occupiers continue to seek out cost Kowloon East, providing a possible 2.3 . There are early signs that activity effective space, but options are limited. million sq ft, although other in the CBD is slowly picking up The overall vacancy rate is just 3.3%, commercial uses or hotel development compared with previous quarters. or 2.2 million sq ft of available space, may reduce the office provision. This and over 30% of this is located in the should further consolidate the area as most expensive sub-market, Central. a key office hub. However, it may not . Decentralised districts on both Only 7% of all vacant space in Hong be until 2018, at the earliest, before Hong Kong Island and Kowloon Kong is located in decentralised Hong development is completed. continue to receive stronger Kong Island and Kowloon. interest. However, this does not A platform for rental growth always translate into new lettings Given the lack of new supply feeding as vacancy remains tight in these Government action on land into the market, we do not anticipate a areas. supply significant increase in vacancy in the The government recently announced short / medium term. In fact, . Rents remain under pressure in details of the 2013 / 2014 land sales considering that net absorption is core areas on Hong Kong Island. programme and highlighted nine currently just half the long term Buildings with large vacant space commercial/business sites for tender, average, when demand fully recovers or upcoming vacancies are still which will provide a total of 3.6 million going forward we could well see a under rental pressure. Outside sq ft. While this is undoubtedly a further tightening in vacancy rates. As the CBD, rents continue to grow. welcome development and the stated such, beyond 2013 we could see a Demand for space in Causeway intention of increasing the supply of significant and prolonged increase in Bay and Hong Kong East has commercial land is encouraging, the CBD rents. Occupiers are aware of this been boosted by tenants seeking devil is certainly in the detail. Three and are wary of committing to space in to relocate from buildings sites have been rolled over from a the top tier buildings at rents which are scheduled for redevelopment. previous program and another four currently attractive, conscious of a have already been counted in future possible sharp uplift in rents upon rent supply estimates through to 2020. review or lease expiry. Rents in decentralised Kowloon districts such as Cheung Sha Wan have been outperforming Chart of the Quarter Pipeline supply core areas as buildings with low base rents remain attractive for Development completions (million sq ft) cost conscious occupiers. 2nd Tier 6 buildings which provide cost 5 effective options in key areas also offer more scope for rental 4 growth going forward. 3 2 1 1 0 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New Supply Hong Kong Science Park Gov. land supply 2013/14 Avge anticipated supply Avge historic supply Source: CBRE © 2013, CBRE, Group Inc. Q1 2013 HONG KONG ISLAND WEAKNESSES IN CORE CBD ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 2013 Hong Kong | Office Occupiers continue to exercise caution Hong Kong Island Net Absorption Demand in Central has yet to fully recover despite early signs of more activity than previous quarters. The Bank of 1,200 Thousand sq ft America Merrill Lynch deal in Cheung Kong Center at the Core Fringe Core Midtown Decentralised end of last quarter had an anticipated positive effect in the 800 short-term. However, the volume of space occupiers seeking 400 to drop still outweighs that of new lettings or expansions. MarketView Activity from the legal sector has also slowed following an 0 active 2012. Meanwhile, Mainland Chinese firms have -400 been driving demand for premium space, the lack of -800 transparency and absence of a clear business plan in many 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 cases calls into question the sustainability of this demand. Source: CBRE Elsewhere, cost conscious occupiers continue to boost activity beyond the CBD. In Causeway Bay, tenants in Sunning Plaza were notified during the quarter of its Hong Kong Island Vacancy Rate redevelopment plan and they are to vacate the building by September. This creates an unforeseen demand for over 10% 200,000 sq ft of space in an already tight market. Similarly 8% in Hong Kong East, demand for space is also strong given the upcoming demolition of Somerset House. 6% 4% Vacancy is tight beyond the CBD 2% Vacancy rates remained largely stable across Hong Kong 0% Island during Q1. Available space is still more abundant in 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Central with almost 670,000 sq ft of available space giving a vacancy rate of 4.9%. Decentralised Hong Kong Island Core Fringe Core Midtown Decentralised continues to be a tight market for occupiers with vacancy Source: CBRE rates in Hong Kong East and North Point just above 1%. This equates to less than 84,000 sq ft of available space. Hong Kong Island Rental Growth Furthermore, the amount of secondary space coming onto the market this year may be far less than previously 20% Q-o-q % change expected. For example, over 60% of the 58,000 sq ft vacated by Convoy in One Island East this quarter was 10% quickly taken. In addition, pipeline supply remains limited 0% across Hong Kong Island. Only three grade A office buildings are scheduled for completion until the end of next -10% year with two of these projects already pre-leased en-bloc. -20% Possible rental uplift going forward post 2013 -30% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Core CBD and Fringe Core CBD on Hong Kong Island Core Fringe Midtown Decentralised continues to experience some downward pressure on rents Source: CBRE as weaknesses in certain sectors, particularly banking, impacts on rents in Central, Admiralty and Sheung Wan. Hong Kong Island Supply Pipeline This counterbalances positive rental growth in other Midtown and Decentralised locations on the Island. 4% Weakness in Central rental levels may continue through To end 2014 To end 2016 2013 as occupier attention is focused elsewhere. However, stronger demand should pick up as we move into 2014 and we could quickly see a turnaround, given the lack of space 2% 2 across the market. Past experience has shown Hong Kong rents to be very volatile and rental movements, in both stock of Percentage directions, can be relatively strong and sudden. 0% Core Fringe Core Midtown Decentralised Source: CBRE © 2013, CBRE, Group Inc. KOWLOON Q1 2013 LOW VACANCY IS HINDERING OCCUPIER EXPANSION PLANS Hong Kong | Office Kowloon Net Absorption Low vacancy is impacting on net absorption levels The acute shortage of vacant space in Kowloon continues 1,800 Thousand sq ft despite the average vacancy rate increasing slightly in Q1 by Core Fringe Core Midtown Decentralised 0.5% to 2.1%, which is still well below the long-term 1,200 average vacancy rate of 9.0%. The higher figure can largely be attributed to Kowloon East after a 1.1% increase this 600 quarter to 2.9%, its highest rate since Q2 2012 but still 2.4% lower than the same period a year ago. Four MarketView 0 developments totaling less than 700,000 sq ft is expected for completion this year. However, they have all been, or are -600 likely to be, sold strata title. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Occupier demand in Hong Kong is focused on cost Source: CBRE efficiency while at the same time, almost counter intuitively, net absorption in cheaper, decentralised locations is Kowloon Vacancy Rate trending downwards. Net absorption in Kowloon was negative in Q1 as a lack of suitable options has hindered 40% expansion plans for companies in the product sourcing, insurance, and consultant engineering sectors. 30% Rental growth decelerating in the better locations 20% Rental levels across Kowloon continued to push upwards 10% during Q1, albeit at a weaker rate than in previous quarters. 0% The average rent in Kowloon increased by only 0.8% this 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 quarter, the smallest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2009 as a lack of large deals, itself due to the shortage of available Core Fringe Core Midtown Decentralised space, contributed to slow rental growth. Source: CBRE Strong rental growth in some areas through 2012 has made Kowloon Rental Growth office space relatively less attractive and this is now impacting on rental growth. Rents in some of the better buildings in Tsim Sha Tsui, such as The Gateway, are no Q-o-q % change 30% more than static, even if positive growth is still being 20% recorded in 2nd Tier buildings. Decentralised locations such 10% as Cheung Sha Wan and Kwai Chung are increasingly 0% becoming the target for mainstream occupiers. As such, -10% rental levels in decentralized areas continued to outperform core locations. The average rent in Tsim Sha Tsui only -20% increased by 0.5% in Q1, compared to a 7.8% and 2.5% -30% growth in Cheung Sha Wan and Kwai Chung respectively.