Hong Kong 7 November 2013 Sector Report Neutral (new) HK Grade A Office Pick the Right Side of a Coin Philip TSE, CFA FRM We initiate on the HK Grade A office sector with a neutral view and
[email protected] a slight negative bias. Our forecasts for 2014 look for a range of -5% (852) 2268 0643 to +5% rental change YoY, with different submarket performance expectations with Central being the weakness (est. 5% decline YoY in Karen P KWAN rental) and decentralized areas like Kowloon East, Wan Chai and
[email protected] Causeway Bay being the stronger (est. 5% rental growth YoY). (852) 2268 0640 Grade A office rental growth decelerated in 1H13. Although rental and prices continued to go up in 1H, we noticed the growth is losing momentum amidst the surge in US treasury yields in 2Q13, some speculators turning away due to property curbs and high prices. Rental Stock Information (as of 6 Nov) and price indexes have just increased by 0.7% QoQ and 0.6% QoQ respectively in 2Q13. Office rental yield was only at 2.9% in Aug-13. Prosperity REIT description: Prosperity REIT is the second real estate investment trust listed in HK in 2005. Its Weak hiring sentiment should dampen overall rental growth in assets portfolio includes 7 buildings located in decentralized 2014 especially in core districts. Per the 3Q13 Hudson Report, only districts with a total gross rentable area of ~1.2m sq ft. 35% of companies had expectations to increase their hiring in Ticker: 808 HK permanent positions in 4Q13, which is lower than the average of 47.6% Shares Issued (m): 1,396 from 2007 to 2013.