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Hong Kong HK Grade a Office Hong Kong 7 November 2013 Sector Report Neutral (new) HK Grade A Office Pick the Right Side of a Coin Philip TSE, CFA FRM We initiate on the HK Grade A office sector with a neutral view and [email protected] a slight negative bias. Our forecasts for 2014 look for a range of -5% (852) 2268 0643 to +5% rental change YoY, with different submarket performance expectations with Central being the weakness (est. 5% decline YoY in Karen P KWAN rental) and decentralized areas like Kowloon East, Wan Chai and [email protected] Causeway Bay being the stronger (est. 5% rental growth YoY). (852) 2268 0640 Grade A office rental growth decelerated in 1H13. Although rental and prices continued to go up in 1H, we noticed the growth is losing momentum amidst the surge in US treasury yields in 2Q13, some speculators turning away due to property curbs and high prices. Rental Stock Information (as of 6 Nov) and price indexes have just increased by 0.7% QoQ and 0.6% QoQ respectively in 2Q13. Office rental yield was only at 2.9% in Aug-13. Prosperity REIT description: Prosperity REIT is the second real estate investment trust listed in HK in 2005. Its Weak hiring sentiment should dampen overall rental growth in assets portfolio includes 7 buildings located in decentralized 2014 especially in core districts. Per the 3Q13 Hudson Report, only districts with a total gross rentable area of ~1.2m sq ft. 35% of companies had expectations to increase their hiring in Ticker: 808 HK permanent positions in 4Q13, which is lower than the average of 47.6% Shares Issued (m): 1,396 from 2007 to 2013. We note the hiring sentiment is highly correlated to Market Cap (USDm): 416 the change in HK office rental and lead the change by about 2 quarters. 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USDm): 0.8 HSI: 23,036.94 We believe decentralization would continue to support rental Free Float (%): 80.1 growth. Despite rental in traditional office districts have dropped by 3 – Major Shareholders: % 5% YoY recently, the rental gap is still high enough to provide sufficient Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited 19.9 economic initiatives to tenants to decentralize their offices. Completion/uptake equilibrium; divergent outlook for different sub- Champion REIT description: Champion REIT is a real markets. HKRVD forecasted the completion of Grade A office in FY13F estate investment trust listed in HK in 2006. Its assets are Citibank Plaza and Langham Place, with ~2m sq ft of Grade and 14F to be 123k and 132k sq m, slightly lower than the 7-year average A office and 360k sq ft of retail space in Hong Kong. annual uptake of 166k sq m. We see the supply-demand as largely at equilibrium and the general office market rental trend may be stable in Ticker: 2778 HK FY2014. However, districts with higher vacancy rates will still be under Units Issued (m): 5,714 Market Cap (USDm): 2,594.6 pressure with landlords being more aggressive to lift their occupancy rates. 3-mth Avg Daily Turnover (USDm): 2.5 US QE tapering – No need to panic. According to our banks analyst HSI: 23,036.94 Free Float (%): 39.5 Steven Chan, there is no need to panic on US QE tapering. Chairman Bernanke made it clear that even if there is a modest reduction in the Major Shareholders: % pace of asset purchase (i.e. the QE tapering), the Fed’s portfolio of Great Eagle 60.5 securities will not be shrinking. However, we have still incorporated a 25-cap rate expansion across all Hong Kong sub-sectors (office, industrial, and retail) in our models for 2014. We initiate on Prosperity REIT with a BUY and Champion REIT with a SELL, TP at HKD2.75/unit and HKD3.09 respectively, representing a FY13 distribution yield of 6.4% and 5.7% respectively. HK-REITs peer comparison table as of Nov 6, 2013 Nov 6 TP Mkt cap Last fiscal PER (x) P/B (x) Yield (%) ROE (%) REIT name Ticker Rating (HKD) (HKD) (USDm) year end FY13* FY14* FY13* FY14* FY13* FY14* FY13* FY14* Prosperity REIT 808 HK BUY 2.31 2.75 416 12/2012 15.7 14.8 0.5 0.5 6.4 6.7 3.4 3.5 Link REIT* 823 HK NR 38.50 N/A 11,477 03/2013* 24.1 22.2 1.1 1.0 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.7 Champion REIT 2778 HK SELL 3.52 3.09 2,595 12/2012 17.6 18.5 0.5 0.5 5.7 5.4 2.8 2.9 Sunlight REIT* 435 HK NR 3.07 N/A 642 06/2013* 17.1 16.2 0.5 0.4 6.2 6.4 2.9 3.0 Fortune REIT 778 HK NR 6.29 N/A 1,508 12/2012 20.0 18.3 0.7 0.6 5.7 6.2 3.7 3.9 Regal REIT 1881 HK NR 2.29 N/A 962 12/2012 15.3 15.3 0.5 0.5 6.8 7.0 3.1 3.0 Average 18.3 17.6 0.6 0.6 5.8 6.0 3.4 3.5 *Note: Link and Sunlight REITs’ valuation metrics are for FY14 and FY15 instead of FY13 and FY14 due to difference in fiscal year ends. Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Hong Kong Office Contents Three charts to know .......................................... 3 Office market review ........................................... 4 US QE tapering ................................................. 10 2014 office market outlook ................................ 13 Prosperity REIT ................................................. 18 Champion REIT ................................................ 43 7 November 2013 Page 2 of 60 Hong Kong Office Three charts to know Figure 1: Monthly rental gap vs Central of different districts and vacancy ratios HKD/sq ft Rental gap vs Central (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) % 80 7 70 6 60 5 50 4 40 3 30 20 2 10 1 0 0 Source: CB Richard Ellis Research, Maybank Kim Eng Figure 2: % of companies with expectations to increase in hiring of next quarter per Hudson Report vs office rental index change % Increase in Hiring (LHS) Office rental index change (RHS) % 80 15 70 10 60 5 50 40 0 30 (5) 20 (10) 10 0 (15) 1Q2007 4Q2007 3Q2008 2Q2009 1Q2010 4Q2010 3Q2011 2Q2012 1Q2013 4Q2013 Source: Hudson Reports, Savills Research and Consultancy, Maybank Kim Eng Figure 3: Chart of office leasing dominated by tenants <10,000 sq ft in first three quarters of 2013 10,001-25,000 sq ft 15.0% 0-5,000 sq ft 50.0% 5,001-10,000 sq ft 35.0% Source: Company data, CB Richard Ellis Research, Maybank Kim Eng 7 November 2013 Page 3 of 60 Hong Kong Office We initiate on the HK Grade A We initiate on the HK Grade A office sector with a neutral view and a slight office sector with a neutral negative bias. Our forecasts for 2014 look for a range of -5% to +5% rental view and a slight negative bias change YoY, with different submarket performance expectations with Central being the weakness (estimated 5% decline YoY in rental) and decentralized areas like Kowloon East, Wan Chai and Causeway Bay being the stronger submarkets (estimated 5% rental growth YoY). Office market review (1H13 & 3Q13) Prime buildings’ office rental growth decelerated In 1H13, HK Grade A office rental and prices continued to go up according to the Grade A office rental and price indexes published by Savills Research and Consultancy. Rental and price indexes increased by 2.3% HoH and 4.0% HoH respectively. However, we noticed the growth is losing momentum amidst the surge in US treasury yields in 2Q13 as well as some speculators turning away due to property measures and high prices. Rental and price indexes just increased by 0.7% QoQ and 0.6% QoQ respectively in 2Q13. Figure 4: Quarterly Hong Kong Grade A office rental and price indexes Year Quarter Rental Index QoQ change (%) Price Index QoQ change (%) 2008 Q1 277.9 8.5 411.9 9.0 Q2 299.2 7.7 399.0 (3.1) Q3 297.6 (0.5) 345.4 (13.4) Q4 257.4 (13.5) 242.7 (29.7) 2009 Q1 231.2 (10.2) 250.8 3.3 Q2 220.3 (4.7) 335.2 33.7 Q3 215.0 (2.4) 347.1 3.5 Q4 216.9 0.9 357.2 2.9 2010 Q1 225.6 4.0 383.4 7.3 Q2 235.7 4.5 387.1 1.0 Q3 252.5 7.1 412.1 6.5 Q4 273.3 8.2 432.3 4.9 2011 Q1 298.9 9.4 463.2 7.1 Q2 312.1 4.4 505.5 9.1 Q3 315.9 1.2 509.9 0.9 Q4 316.4 0.2 507.8 (0.4) 2012 Q1 316.1 (0.1) 516.0 1.6 Q2 314.6 (0.5) 535.7 3.8 Q3 321.2 2.1 541.6 1.1 Q4 325.3 1.3 559.1 3.2 2013 Q1 330.6 1.6 577.8 3.3 Q2 332.9 0.7 581.3 0.6 Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Maybank Kim Eng Office rental yield only at 2.9% As a result of faster growth in price than rental, rental yield for office properties has dropped to a record low during the period. Both Grade A and Grade B office rental yields in Hong Kong recorded a drop of 30bps YoY to 2.9% in Aug-13, comparing to 3.2% respectively in Aug-12 according to the latest property market statistics published by the Rating and Valuation Department of the Hong Kong government (“HKRVD”).
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