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US-China Trade War Aseanfocus Is Published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and Available Electronically at Contents ISSUE 1/2019 26 JANUARY 2019 ISSN: 2424–8045 Thailand’s ASEAN Can ASEAN Impacts of the American Rice Binds Chairmanship 2019 Cope with the Trade War on Businesses for Free Southeast Asia “Trade War”? ASEAN Economies and Fair Trade Together State of Southeast Asia: 2019 Survey US-China Trade War ASEANFocus is published by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and available electronically at Contents www.iseas.edu.sg If you wish to receive an Editorial Notes electronic copy of ASEANFocus, please email us at [email protected] Analysis Published on 7 January 2019 2 Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship 2019: “Advancing Partnership for Sustainability” EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN Busaya Mathelin Choi Shing Kwok 6 Survey Report: “State of Southeast Asia: 2019” MANAGING EDITOR Tang Siew Mun Spotlight: The US-China Trade War and Impacts on ASEAN PRODUCTION EDITOR 17 Bracing for the Trade War Roller Coaster Hoang Thi Ha Selena Ling EDITORIAL COMMITTEE 20 Can ASEAN Cope with the “Trade War”? Moe Thuzar Bilahari Kausikan Termsak Chalermpalanupap 22 Winter is Coming: Indonesia’s Take on the Trade War EDITORIAL ASSISTANTS Muhamad Chatib Basri Pham Thi Phuong Thao Anuthida Saelaow 24 US-China Trade Tensions: Effects on Singapore and Malaysia Donald Hanna 26 Thailand Looks to Benefit from the Trade War Suthad Setboonsarng 28 Vietnam Amidst the US-China Trade War: High Risks, Big Gains Luc Can ASEAN in Figures SUPPORTED BY 30 Impacts of the US-China Trade War on ASEAN Insider Views 32 Alex Feldman: American Businesses for Free and Fair Trade Sights and Sounds The responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests 35 When Concrete Meets Greenery: Smart and Green exclusively with the authors Buildings in Southeast Asia and their interpretations do not Nur Aziemah Aziz necessarily reflect the views or the policy of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak 38 Rice: The Grain that Binds Southeast Asia Together Institute or its supporters. No part of Hayley Winchcombe this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission. ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (formerly Institute of Southeast Asian Studies) is an autonomous organisation established in 1968. It is a regional centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are grouped Singapore 119614 under Regional Economic Studies (RES), Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS) and Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS). The Tel : (65) 6870 4509 Institute is also home to the ASEAN Studies Centre (ASC), the Nalanda- Fax: (65) 6778 1735 Sriwijaya Centre (NSC) and the Singapore APEC Study Centre. Editorial Notes ncertainties and disruptions abound even in the among more than 1,000 Southeast Asians who hail from Ufestive season as 2018 transitioned into 2019. the policy, research, business, civil society and media An outpouring of sympathy and compassion went to communities in the region. Indonesia again as another tsunami hit the coast of Sunda Strait on 22 December 2018, leaving in its trail From the big picture of the survey findings, this more than 400 fatalities, around 14,000 injured and more issue casts spotlight on the US-China trade war and than 33,000 displaced people. The region’s maritime its ripple effects to Southeast Asia, for better or for sphere has also been stirred up by the resurging maritime worse. Ms. Selena Ling gives an overview of the trade boundary dispute between two ASEAN fellow members, war developments and projections of its implications Malaysia and Singapore. on global and regional growth in 2019. Mr. Bilahari Kausikan weighs in on the underlying US-China strategic Further afield, the last month of 2018 has been turbulent competition for which trade is only the instrument. for the Trump Administration with an ongoing partial We then present country-specific perspectives from government shutdown, stumbling stocks on Wall Street in Dr. Muhamad Chatib Basri, Dr. Donald Hanna, Dr. early December to surge back later, and the resignations Suthad Setboonsarng and Dr. Luc Can on the complex of key cabinet members, especially Secretary of Defense impacts of the trade war to the respective economies James Mattis who played a critical role in anchoring US of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, Thailand, and presence and commitment to Asia. In an effort to assuage Vietnam. These in-depth analyses are complemented by a lot of uncertainty and anxiety over the future trajectory facts and numbers in ASEAN in Figures that illustrate how of America’s engagement in the region, the Trump the impacts of the trade war are being felt in the region. Administration signed on the last day of 2018 the Asia For Insider Views, Mr. Alex Feldman, CEO and President Reassurance Initiative Act to add further credence and of the US-ASEAN Business Council, shares with us how substance to the Indo-Pacific strategy. ASEAN can be a game-changing factor as American companies operating in the region adjust their business As for ASEAN, there is as much anticipation as anxiety plans to deal with the US-China trade war. with regard to Thailand’s chairmanship this year since the country will also hold the long awaited general In this issue’s Sights and Sounds, Ms. Nur Aziemah Aziz is election in May 2019. Can Thailand push forward the hopeful for more green buildings to spring up amidst the sustainability theme at the core of the ASEAN agenda increasingly concretised landscape of Southeast Asian while restoring democratic norms and institutions? cities. Lastly, Ms. Hayley Winchcombe marvels at how ASEANFocus is honoured to have the Kingdom of rice has been a quintessential and ever present element of Thailand’s Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs, life in Southeast Asia since antiquity. Mrs. Busaya Mathelin, outline the country’s priorities of its 2019 ASEAN chairmanship. On the last note, we are delighted to welcome Ms. Anuthida Saelaow to the ASC family. Looking forward With a new year upon us, what are the anxieties and to an exciting year ahead, we thank all our readers and hopes of Southeast Asian people about the region? What contributors for your support as we continue to provide are their most pressing concerns? Are they cautious or you with analysis and perspectives on ASEAN and optimistic about the major powers’ strategies towards beyond. From all of us at the ASEAN Studies Centre and the region, including the Belt and Road Initiative and ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, we wish you a happy and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific? How do they perceive productive year for 2019. ASEAN and other important issues facing the region? Which major powers do they trust the most and the least? Which country is their dream vacation destination and where do they choose to send their children for study abroad? In this issue, we present intriguing findings from our Centre’s “State of Southeast Asia: 2019” online survey conducted in November and December 2018 Analysis Thailand’s ASEAN Chairmanship 2019: “Advancing Partnership for Sustainability” Busaya Mathelin outlines Thailand’s agenda and priorities for its 2019 ASEAN Chairmanship. SEAN remains the core regional institution and looks to the future, Thailand has chosen the following Aorganisation in Southeast Asia. It has helped promote theme for its Chairmanship: “Advancing Partnership for peace, stability and economic growth and development Sustainability”. in the region for over five decades. Since the Bangkok Declaration establishing ASEAN was signed on 8 August There are three key words in our theme. 1967, ASEAN has grown from an Association of five to a Community of ten. It has cultivated a culture of cooperation The first is “Advancing”. We live in fast-moving times. The that has made a positive impact on the lives of over 650 Fourth Industrial Revolution has many positive aspects, million people. It has also reinforced a foundation of peace but technology can be disruptive and cyber-crime is a real and stability, which has helped generate unprecedented danger. So ASEAN must adapt, find creative solutions, economic growth and development. According to The and become more future-oriented, that is, looking ahead Asia Foundation, the average per capita income of ASEAN twenty years and trying to prepare for it. Indeed, the has grown 33 times since its founding in 1967. Association has already set itself the goal of becoming a “Digital ASEAN”, with a number of initiatives in the ASEAN is a core pillar of Thai foreign policy. Thailand’s pipeline to enhance digital links as well as cybersecurity. long-term goal is to work together with all ASEAN An ASEAN Digital Leaders’ Meeting is also planned this Member States to build an ASEAN Community that year in support of our move towards a Digital ASEAN. is people-centred, leaves no one behind, and looks to Furthermore, the ASEAN-Japan Cybersecurity Capacity- the future. Such a Community would also be open and Building Centre has been established in Thailand. outward-looking, with strong links – based on mutual interests – with the international community. It would also But we must first be able to harness advances in technology be a Community that would be in step with the changing for the benefit of the people. This includes enhancing the times. Indeed, ASEAN will need to find effective ways to region’s competitiveness, especially in terms of micro, manage ongoing changes and uncertainties to ASEAN’s small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Advancing benefit – whether it be to address the consequences of the forward also means preparing for trends beyond the Fourth Industrial Revolution or rising geopolitical tensions technological to include global challenges, such as climate in some areas, for example.
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