china hawks

FIGHTING FISHERMEN: A flotilla of Chinese fishing boats steams towards the East Sea and a group of uninhabited islands that Japan and China both claim. REUTERS/ stringer

As China’s new Communist Party leaders take power, they face a more outspoken military brass. China’s military hawks go on the offensive

By David Lague HONG KONG, January 17 , 2013

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t was supposed to be a relaxed evening for a group of senior international mili- Itary chiefs. Gathered at Melbourne’s Crown Casino, they had changed out of uniform for dinner and discussion. China’s Lieutenant-General Ren Haiquan took the podium in a room over- looking the Yarra River last Oct. 29 and began diplomatically enough. But as he neared the end of his speech, he went on the offensive. “Some people” had ignored the outcome of World War Two and were challenging the post-war order, he told counterparts from 15 other nations. It was a pointed reference to Japan’s claim over islands in the East China Sea that insists are Chinese. “One should never forget history and (should) learn from history,” Ren said, ac- cording to a copy of his speech. “Flames of the war ignited by fascist countries engulfed GRUFF COMMENTATOR: Retired army Major General Luo Yuan has proposed sending a fleet of the whole region, and many places, includ- fishing boats to uninhabited islands that China and Japan claim to fight a “people’s war at sea”.. ing Darwin in Australia, were bombed.” REUTERS/Stringer In a jarring coincidence, say officers in the audience, fireballs belched into the sky as he spoke, part of the casino’s hourly fire- There appears to be a most-outspoken generals are military aca- works display. discord between this peaceful demics or theorists. Visibly displeased at the dig, the senior rise language and the comments Foreign military analysts are uncertain if Japanese officer present, army Lieutenant from senior PLA officers. the hawks represent a majority opinion in General Yoshiaki Nakagawa, left with his the 2.3 million-strong military or exercise fellow officers as soon as the speeches con- Li Nan real influence over foreign policy. It is also cluded, people in the audience said. analyst at the United States Naval War College unclear if operational commanders share the Neither Ren nor Nakagawa were avail- views of these so-called “activist officers.” able for comment. moment. The more provocative of these of- However, there is one generally agreed ficers call for “short, sharp wars” to assert explanation for their prominence: The PLA “KILL A CHICKEN” China’s sovereignty. Others urge Beijing to now has something to talk about. The mili- Ren’s provocative dinner talk was no isolated “strike first”, “prepare for conflict” or “kill a tary budget has soared to almost $200 bil- outburst. His message was typical of the in- chicken to scare the monkeys”. lion, according to some Western estimates creasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from se- They routinely denounce the Obama - the world’s second-highest military bud- nior officers in the People’s Liberation Army. administration’s recent “pivot” to Asia - get behind the United States. That money At issue these days are the disputed is- without naming the United States, Ren has paid for the warships, strike aircraft and lands known as the Diaoyu (in China) or in his Melbourne speech accused “external missiles allowing the PLA to plan for dis- Senkaku (in Japan) and a string of islets in countries” of complicating disputes in Asia. tant conflict. For the first time in its mod- the South China that China is contesting In a political system where civilian of- ern history, China has the firepower to con- with various Southeast Asian nations. ficials hew to tightly scripted public po- test control of disputed territory far from its But the combative streak speaks to pro- sitions, these uniformed pundits, both coastal waters. found shifts in Chinese politics and for- serving and retired, appear free to go well Over the same period, China has eign policy that transcend the heat of the beyond the official line. Almost all of the emerged from decades of isolation to

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become a powerful trading nation with a For anxious neighbours, though, the that it highly regards Japan’s history as a complex global web of commercial and dip- tough talk backed up with firepower deliv- peaceful nation for more than 60 years after lomatic ties. That means military planners ered over a three-decade military buildup, the war,” the official said. are increasingly concerned with security of is sending an unnerving signal that a rising Japan’s Defence Ministry has flagged sea lanes - particularly in the South China China may be ready to use force. It also con- the Chinese armed forces’ growing role in Sea - that carry manufactured exports and flicts with repeated assurances of a “peaceful shaping foreign policy as a security risk. imports of vital energy and raw materials. rise” from the civilian leadership in Beijing. in its annual defence white paper last July, “Until quite recently, China didn’t have “There appears to be a discord between Tokyo said some believe relations between a lot of overseas interests,” said Li Nan, this peaceful rise language and the com- the PLA and the Communist Party leader- an analyst of the Chinese military at the ments from senior PLA officers,” said Li of ship were “getting complex”. The degree of United States Naval War College. “It didn’t the U.S. Naval War College. “There is no military influence on foreign policy deci- get involved in foreign-policy crises.” doubt about that.” sions could possibly be changing, the paper A Japanese Foreign Ministry official, said, adding: “The situation calls for atten- “PEACEFUL RISE” noting Lt-Gen Ren’s remarks in Melbourne tion as a risk management issue.” For some Chinese foreign policy research- and similar comments from China, stressed STRONG NATIONALIST ers, the emergence of the hawks is part of Japan’s own peaceful rise from the ashes of Beijing’s “good cop–bad cop” strategy to World War Two. The relationship will be closely watched influence diplomatic negotiations over the “China itself clearly stated in the Japan- as China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, begins disputed territory. China joint statement, issued in May 2008, to stamp his authority on the Communist Party and the military. Xi, the “prince- ling” son of late party leader, military Claims on the commander and economic reformer Xi Six Southeast Asian nations and China contest all or parts of the Spratlys Zhongxun, has clearly signaled he will be a and Paracel islands in the South China Sea strong nationalist. His first speeches after taking power in November had a strong Paracel Spratly Claimed Oil/gas patriotic flavour, with appeals for a “renais- Islands Islands territory fields sance” of the Chinese nation. As chairman of the Central Military BRUNEI PHILIPPINES CHINA Commission and head of the party, Xi takes command of the PLA after years of cementing close ties with influential se- nior officers. One of his jobs after graduation from university was personal secretary to Geng Biao, a revolutionary military commander who became defence minister after the . TAIWAN MALAYSIA VIETNAM Xi is close to two influential and outspo- ken officers who like him are themselves princelings, or offspring of senior leaders: army general Liu Yuan, and air force gen- eral Liu Yazhou. (The two are not related.) Xi can even be said to be married to the military. His wife, celebrity folk singer Peng Liyuan, is a civilian member of the PLA, holding a rank equivalent to major general. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of State, Some analysts say Xi’s family background Middlebury College, National Geographic and his own experience will enable him to

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exert more control over the PLA than his new warships, tanks, missiles and strike air- argued a short, decisive war, like China’s predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. craft now entering service with the PLA. 1962 border clash with India, would deliver “Xi has nothing to prove to the military,” The impact of these new weapons is end- long-term peace. He also said Washington said former Australian Prime Minister Kevin lessly analyzed, particularly in scenarios would not risk war with China over these Rudd, a Mandarin speaking ex-diplomat who where China is at war with the United territorial spats. has held talks with the new Chinese leader on States and its regional allies. “Since we have decided that the U.S. is several occasions. “There is no reason for him For retired officers on modest PLA pen- bluffing in the East China Sea, we should to overcompensate for them.” sions, this market for commentary and anal- take this opportunity to respond to these While it is too early to say if Xi will en- ysis provides extra income and the gratifica- empty provocations with something real,” courage or tolerate his outspoken generals, tion of a high profile in the media, Chinese he wrote in an Aug. 28 commentary pub- political analysts agree the hawks can be si- military experts say. And, serving officers can lished in the Chinese-language edition of lenced when it suits the political leadership. advance their careers if their views strike a the Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid When Chinese President Hu Jintao visited chord with the military hierarchy. published by the Communist Party organ, the United States in early 2011, it was im- the People’s Daily. SHORT, DECISIVE WAR portant to Beijing that the high profile visit “This includes Vietnam, the Philippines go smoothly and Hu receive state honours in The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, is renowned and Japan, who are the three running dogs Washington. Hawkish talk among the officer for his regular calls to arms. With China in of the United States in Asia,” added Dai, pundits died down in the run-up to that trip. dispute for much of last year with Japan in a researcher at Beijing University’s China ”All of a sudden, bam, these guys got the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Centre for Strategic Studies. “We only turned off,” said Scott Harold, a China ana- Philippines in the South China Sea, Dai need to kill one, and it will immediately lyst for the Santa Monica, California-based bring the others to heel.” Rand Corporation. This includes Vietnam, the An animated speaker with a shock of thick black hair that’s slightly long for a STAR MEDIA PERFORMERS Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs military man, Dai sometimes appears for Ren, the vice president of China’s Academy television interviews in fashionable civil- of Military Science, is far from the most of the United States in Asia. ian clothes. On other occasions he appears hawkish officer in the PLA. Dai Xu on the state-controlled military channel, Among the most bellicose are in a group Air Force colonel CCTV 7, in his neat, sky-blue air force of about 20 military officers who have be- come star media and online performers in recent years, including Air Force Colonel Dai Xu, retired army Major General Luo Yuan and Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong. Their commentary and blogs get wide- spread coverage in state-owned media, mil- itary publications and specialist websites that cater to a vast domestic audience eager for news and opinion about China’s grow- ing military power. “It also serves to instill a sense of pride and patriotism that China under the present government has become strong and a force to be reckoned with by the big powers,” said Sun Yun, an expert on Chinese foreign and security policy at the Washington-based Stimson Centre. Their commentary is in demand as part ANTI-JAPAN PROTESTS – Paramilitary police blocked protesters in Shanghai last September after of the extensive coverage devoted to the anti-Japan protests swept China. REUTERS/ Carls Barria

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uniform giving lectures to junior officers on has built up a strong online and media fol- have overlapping jurisdiction over mari- air power or conflicts in the Middle East. lowing with frequent hard-line advice for time policing. He is also the author of popular books dealing with maritime disputes. In a telephone interview, Luo told on China’s strategic outlook. His 2009 best His suggestions, however, that Taiwan Reuters from Beijing all soldiers had a duty seller, “Sea Totem, China’s Carrier,” argues and mainland China should send hundreds to be “hawks”. that China’s new aircraft carrier, commis- of fishing boats to the Diaoyu islands to The chance of conflict in the South sioned in September, is a symbol of the na- fight a “people’s war at sea” and to turn the China Sea and East China sea this year is tion’s maritime rejuvenation. tiny, uninhabited islands into a firing range arguably high because rival claimants had In “C-Shaped Encirclement,” published appear to have been tongue in cheek. enacted domestic laws to legitimise over- in 2010, Dai describes how an entrapped “Chinese aircraft can bomb the islands on lapping sovereignty claims and had de- China must break out from the curving Monday, Wednesday and Friday,” Luo said ployed forces to prevent encroachments, he perimeter around China the United States at a seminar in Hangzhou on September 29, said. This meant China must take precau- and its allies have established from northern “while the Taiwanese can launch attacks on tions to prevent clashes. Japan, through South Korea, Taiwan, South Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.” “It’s crucial to express your standpoint East Asia, India and up to Afghanistan. Mixed in with his sometimes combus- and bottom line so others will know that Dai did not respond to a request for com- tible rhetoric are practical suggestions, in- China is committed to the use of diplo- ment on this article. cluding his recent recommendation that matic measures to resolve the dispute but China form a coastguard on the U.S. model China is also not afraid of conflict,” he said. “EXPRESS YOUR BOTTOM LINE” to unify the nine government agencies that That was basically the line from the Retired army Major General Luo Yuan is Chinese Defence Ministry in a written re- a gruff, plain-speaking member of China’s REUTERS TV ply to questions about the hawkish officers. top government advisory body, the Chinese The government would never waver in its People’s Political Consultative Conference. See the video: determination to maintain China’s sover- Luo, who often appears in uniform for his http://link.reuters.com/geq44t eignty and territorial integrity, the minis- television appearances or panel discussions, try said. “At the same time, we have always upheld the peaceful resolution of interna- tional disputes and resolving problems with relevant countries through dialogue, nego- tiation and equal consultations.” For some PLA watchers, the scope for these officers to voice controversial opin- ions is further evidence of expanding free- dom of speech in China. “It is a genuine debate,” said Patrick Ho, chief executive of the Hong Kong-based China Energy Fund Committee, a main- land-funded think tank that lists some outspoken military officers as consultants. “Even within the higher echelons of the military, there are conservatives and liber- als, just like America and Europe. There are extreme views from each end,” added Ho, a former senior Hong Kong government of- ficial and now an advisor to Beijing. A robust debate over national security is “normal” for a major power, Australia’s Rudd ROCKY RELATIONS: China and Japan have grown increasingly bellicose over this group of uninhabited says. “In the U.S., the national security de- islets and outcroppings known as the Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu bate rages all the time. But we find it strange

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when it happens in another country.” Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong is the HISTORY LECTURE: “Some best-known of the hawk commentators, ap- people” had ignored the pearing frequently as a program host on outcome of World War CCTV 7 and other state-run television outlets. Two, China’s Lieutenant- Virulently anti-American, he has a low General Ren Haiquan told opinion of U.S. military capabilities and an international military willingness to suffer casualties. The United conference in Melbourne States would “run like a rabbit” if China went Australia in October. to war with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands, REUTERS/handout he told state television on August 12. Zhang, a professor at Beijing’s National Defence University who has studied at Britain’s Royal Military College of Science, is also disparaging about neighbouring countries’ fighting capabilities. Last year, during the Scarborough on a perceived challenge to China’s terri- In Melbourne, Ren explained that Shoal standoff, he told participants of a tory or dignity. In September, three days Beijing’s military buildup was purely aimed People’s Daily Internet forum it would be after Tokyo outraged Beijing with its de- at preventing a repetition of earlier foreign a one-sided fight if China clashed with the cision to buy the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands aggression that China had been too weak to Philippines. Manila’s most potent warship from a Japanese citizen who owned them, resist. “To prevent a repetition of this histor- was a 3,000-tonne, 1960s vintage former China’s state media unleashed a propa- ical tragedy, China has no other choice but U.S. coast guard cutter, while China could ganda broadside in a joint commentary to develop proper military strength,” he said. deploy the 18,000-tonne amphibious land- from 10 generals including Dai Xu, Luo As PLA firepower mounts, China’s po- ing ship, Kunlun Shan, he said. Yuan and Zhang Zhaozhong. Calling for litical leaders will need to be careful the “If there is a clash in the South China Sea, a tough stand against Tokyo, they accused uniformed hawks don’t go too far and in- the possibility that foreign countries would rightists in Japan of moving the country crease the risk of conflict, security experts intervene is low, and any conflict would not dangerously toward a revival of its World said. It might be difficult to make conces- last long,” he confidently predicted. War Two militarism. sions or compromise in negotiations over Zhang’s reputation as a prognosticator, The drumbeat of threats and warnings disputed territory once public opinion gets however, has taken a few lumps. He warned from uniformed officers is contributing to whipped up. of a series of calamities for the 2003 U.S.- regional apprehension about China’s territo- “As nationalism is a double-edged led invasion of Iraq, predicting the attack- rial intentions. Southeast Asian nations have sword,” says Shen Dingli, a security expert ers would be “engulfed in the vast ocean of welcomed the U.S. “pivot”, Washington’s at Shanghai’s Fudan University, “the gov- a people’s war.” Later, in the face of online stated intention of shifting more attention ernment could get hurt.” ridicule, Zhang was forced to concede on and military assets back to the region. They television he had insufficient “intelligence” are strengthening ties with Washington and Additional reporting by Charlie Zhu, Editing by about the disposition and strength of Iraq’s boosting military spending. Bill Tarrant and Michael Williams forces other than what he learned on the Right-wing voices in Japan calling for Internet. More recently, Zhang also wrong- re-armament are gaining ground - a trend FOR MORE INFORMATION ly predicted Libyan dictator Muammur that solidified with December’s landslide David Lague Gaddafi would prevail over the rebels seek- election of the hawkish Shinzo Abe as [email protected] ing his overthrow. prime minister. Abe has proposed the first Bill Tarrant, Enterprise Editor Zhang was not available for comment. increase in Japan’s defence budget in 11 [email protected] On occasion, a battery of belligerent years, citing repeated Chinese incursions Michael Williams, Global Enterprise Editor top brass will concentrate their firepower into disputed waters. [email protected]

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