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Middle Eastern Upheavals $12 SUMMER 2011 VOLUME 18, NUMBER 3 Curbing Tehran’s Middle Eastern Upheavals Nuclear Ambitions Ilan Berman Bruce Maddy-Weitzman Ramp up Sanctions Hope for Tunisian Democracy Aaron Menenberg Change the Regime Cynthia Farahat Egypt’s Islamists Surface Mordechai Kedar and Hilal Khashan David Yerushalmi Reform Dies in Syria and Lebanon Shari‘a Breeds Violence in America Sterling Jensen David Patterson Iraq’s Democracy Strengthens How Anti-Semitism Matters Ali Alfoneh Arlene Kushner Mixed Response in Iran UNRWA’s Anti-Israel Bias Plus . Lee Smith • Reviews by Klein, Knapp, Weakened U.S. Influence Plaut, Schwartz, Silinsky, and J. and O.L. Sirrs • Operationally: The Forum exerts an active in- fluence through its projects, including Campus Watch, Islamist Watch, the Legal Project, and the Forum Washington Project. www.MEForum.org • Philanthropically: The Forum distributes nearly $2 million annually through its Education Fund, The Middle East Forum works to define and promote helping researchers, writers, investigators, and ac- American interests in the Middle East and to protect the tivists around the world. Constitutional order from Middle Eastern threats. The Forum holds that the United States has vital interests in the The MEF is a publicly supported, nonprofit organization region; in particular, it believes in strong ties with Israel and under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. other democracies as they emerge. Contributions are tax deductible. For information about • Intellectually: Through the Middle East membership, please write or call the Middle East Forum, Quarterly, staff writings, lectures, and conference 1500 Walnut Street, Suite 1050, Philadelphia, PA 19102, calls, the Forum provides context, insights, and Tel.: (215) 546-5406, Fax: (215) 546-5409, E-mail: policy recommendations. [email protected]. Board of Governors Irwin Hochberg, Executive Committee Chairman David P. Steinmann, Executive Committee Vice Chairman Albert J. Wood, Founding Chairman (1994-2006) Philadelphia Thomas H. Tropp Peter B. Levy Cleveland David V. Wachs Harley Lippman Robert Guzzardi Carroll A. Weinberg Judith Friedman Rosen Lawrence Gould Chairman Ele Wood Scott S. Rosenblum Chairman Edwin Seave Joseph S. Zuritsky Henry Rosenfeld David Shifrin Vice Chairman Josiah Rotenberg Vice Chairman Marilyn Stern Melvin Salberg Joseph Shafran Vice Chairman New York Lawrence Shelley Program Chairman Orna Shulman Philip Baskin Steven Levy Jonathan Torop Secretary Jack R. Bershad Chairman Margo Marbut Train Howard M. Casper Nina Rosenwald Patrick Clawson Vice Chairman Yehuda Baskin Birtan Aka Collier Boston Dennis Seaman David E. Edman Michael A. Weiss Richard J. Fox Ziad K. Abdelnour Joshua Katzen Stephen Weiss Stanley D. Ginsburg Nira Abramowitz Chairman Edward M. Glickman Wilma G. Aeder Richard Calmas Lawrence B. Hollin Norman S. Benzaquen Vice Chairman Ira M. Ingerman Patricia D. Cayne Arthur Karafin Brian T. Decker Robert Abrams Daniel Pipes Samuel M. Lehrer David Eisenberg Howard Bleich Director Murray S. Levin Roger A. Gerber Susan Gardos Bleich Myrna Linsenberg Donald G. Ginsberg Benjamin Gordon Amy Shargel Seymour G. Mandell Eugene M. Grant Brian Grodman Managing Director Michael Mooreville N. Richard Greenfield Lawrence K. Grodman Jeremy T. Rosenblum Martin Gross Irene Pipes Milton S. Schneider Leon Korngold Mark H. Rubin William Seltzer David J. Kudish George A. Violin Murray H. Shusterman Joshua Landes Harry C. Wechsler Edward M. Snider Donald M. Landis David Wolf Ronni Gordon Stillman Robert J. Levine Maxine Wolf SUMMER 2011 VOLUME 18, NUMBER 3 MIDDLE EASTERN UPHEAVALS 03 Lee Smith, Weakening Washington’s Middle East Influence Obama’s Cairo speech signaled the downturn 11 Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, Tunisia’s Morning After Despite substantive progress, the future remains uncertain 19 Cynthia Farahat, Egypt’s Islamist Shadow The regime and the Muslim Brotherhood have long colluded 25 Hilal Khashan, The View from Syria and Lebanon Democracy seems unlikely to make headway in Damascus and Beirut 31 Sterling Jensen, Iraq Weathers the Political Storm Still saddled with problems, Baghdad’s democratic experiment has turned a corner 35 Ali Alfoneh, Mixed Response in Iran Both regime and opposition take heart from the Arab uprisings CURBING TEHRAN’S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS 41 Ilan Berman, Tightening the Economic Noose The West has considerable means to derail the regime’s nuclear drive 49 Aaron Menenberg, Misreading the Mullahs To prevent a nuclear Iran, concentrate on regime change 59 Mordechai Kedar and David Yerushalmi, Shari‘a and Violence in American Mosques Strictly observant imams are more likely to promote jihad 73 David Patterson, How Anti-Semitism Prevents Peace Their hatred of Jews precludes Hamas and Fatah as Israeli negotiating partners 84 DOCUMENT: Arlene Kushner, UNRWA’s Anti-Israel Bias The U.N. agency has politicized its relief mission REVIEWS 92 Brief Reviews Hebron’s Jews ... Israel’s economy ... Iranian Leftists ... A Taliban autobiography / 1 Editor Publisher and Review Editor Efraim Karsh Daniel Pipes Senior Editors Assistant Editor Patrick Clawson Hillel Zaremba Denis MacEoin Michael Rubin Managing Editor Editorial Assistant Judy Goodrobb William Aquilino Board of Editors Fouad Ajami James R. Russell Johns Hopkins University Harvard University David Cook Franck Salameh Rice University Boston College Martin Kramer Philip Carl Salzman The Shalem Center McGill University Timur Kuran Saliba Sarsar Duke University Monmouth University Habib C. Malik Robert B. Satloff Foundation for Human and Humanitarian Rights The Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Lebanon Sabri Sayarø James Phillips Sabancø University The Heritage Foundation Kemal Silay Steven Plaut Indiana University University of Haifa Lee Smith Dennis Ross The Weekly Standard Washington, D.C. Steven L. Spiegel Barry Rubin University of California, Los Angeles Global Research in International Affairs Center Kenneth W. Stein Emory University 2 / MIDDLE EAST QUARTERLY SUMMER 2011 Middle Eastern Upheavals Weakening Washington’s Middle East Influence by Lee Smith railing the wave of revolutions that began sweeping through the Arabic-speak- ing Middle East this January, I recently traveled in the region, visiting some of the T capitals where what we have come to call the “Arab Spring” has hit. In Cairo, I kept company with the handful of Egyptian political activists from the social media generation who were skeptical of a revolution that had already started to show its populist roots. In Manama, I met with members of the mainstream opposition movement who contended that, contrary to their government’s claims, the Shiites of Bahrain wanted nothing to do with Tehran: In the 1970 U.N. poll about the emirate’s future, Bahrainis expressed the wish to remain part of an independent Arab state under the ruling al-Khalifa family but demanded their political rights—and still do. And from Beirut, I watched an- other uprising kick off over the anti-Lebanon mountain range in Damascus as many Leba- nese quietly hoped that the revolution there would do away with the Assad regime while fearing the repercussions could not help but come back on them. After a month in North Africa, the Levant, and the Persian Gulf countries, I am still unsure what these uprisings have in common, if anything. The regimes that suffered these blows are themselves different from place to place, for all authoritarian regimes are au- thoritarian in their own way—Husni Mubarak was no Saddam Hussein, nor even a Bashar al-Assad. Perhaps our eagerness to see the upheavals as one wider movement is less a repre- sentation of reality than a reflection of how the Middle East is understood by large seg- ments of the American intelligentsia—a habit of mind that of late was most powerfully expressed by President Barack Obama. It was during the June 2009 Cairo speech,1 after all, where Obama transgressed the borders according to which Washington maintained and advanced its interests, describing the region in terms of Muslims, a Muslim world that is by definition borderless, transnational, and not specific to the particular circumstances of history, geography, and politics that give nation-states their character. Obama’s Muslim world is amorphous, more like a sentiment than a physical fact, something perhaps Lee Smith is a senior editor at The Weekly Stan- similar in nature to the “Arab Spring.” dard and the author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations (Doubleday, 2010). 1 The New York Times, June 4, 2009. Smith: U.S Middle East Influence / 3 tian populism,3 from Saad Zaghloul to Gamal BIRDS OF MANY FEATHERS Abdel Nasser. As for the revolutionaries themselves, there It has been argued that the recent events is no consistent profile from country to country were driven by economic motives, insofar as all or little to suggest that their different resumes these revolts pitted the have-nots against the make them necessarily sympathetic to each haves; and yet the particular circumstances vary other’s goals. To be sure, the Tunisian activists greatly. There is little comparison, for instance, found common cause with their Egyptian coun- between the grand prize up for grabs in Libya’s terparts, explaining to them how to use the so- civil war (control of the country’s oil) and the cial media to get people to take to the street. As fairer employment, and educational and hous- Lebanese journalist Hazem al-Amin told me in ing opportunities sought Beirut, “The first time the Tunisians tried, they by the Bahraini opposi- failed. That was back in 2008, and this time they The uprisings tion. Furthermore, the were prepared.”4 And yet Muhammad Bouazizi— have further blanket charge of corrup- the iconic figure of the “Arab Spring” whose tion against economic underscored self-immolation triggered the Tunisian revolu- elites across the region tion—seems to have had little in common with the fractious obscures the genuine re- the Libyan rebels, who unlike every other oppo- character of forms that won the Tuni- sition movement, took up arms against the rul- the region. sian and Egyptian re- ing order almost immediately.
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