02307-9781463939595.Pdf
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
©1995 International Monetary Fund December 1995 IMF Staff Country Report No. 95/128 Fiji-Background Material This report on Fiji was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. As such, the views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of Fiji, or the Executive Board of the IMF. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Telefax: (202) 623-7201 Telex (RCA): 248331 IMF UR Internet: [email protected] Price: $15.00 a copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND FIJI Background Material Prepared by H. Khor, M. Cangiano (both SEA), H. Faruqee (RES), and A. Zimmerman (OMD) Approved by the Southeast Asia and Pacific Department November 1, 1995 Contents Page Basic Data, 1989-94 4 I. Review and Analysis of Growth Performance 5 A. Introduction 5 B. Overview of Developments During 1968-94 5 1. Economic developments 5 2. General constraints to growth 7 3. Policy developments 12 C. Determinants of Growth: An Empirical Investigation 12 1. Measures of potential GDP and output gap 12 2. Factor contributions to growth 16 3. Short-run determination of output 18 D. Conclusions 19 II. Exchange Rate Developments ?? A. Introduction 99 B. Exchange Rate Policy and Developments 23 C. Determinants of the Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate 25 D. Empirical Estimates of the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate 26 E. Concluding Remarks 30 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -2- Contents Page ANNEX I. Summary of Structural Reforms 70 ANNEX II. Summary of the Tax System as of October 19, 1995 76 Boxes 1. Political Background 8 2. International Trade Agreements and Arrangements 13 3. Land Tenure System 14 Text Tables 1 Regional Comparison of Social and Demographic Indicators .6 2. Selected Economic Indicators, 1968-94 9 3. Factor Contributions to Output Growth, 1971-94 17 4. Estimates of Growth Equation, 1973-94 20 Appendix Tables 5. Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin, 1989-94 32 6. Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure at Current Market Prices, 1989-94 . 33 7. Sugarcane Production and Growers' Income, 1989-94 34 8. Primary Production, 1989-94 34 9. Industrial Production, 1989-95 36 10. Tourism Statistics, 1989-94 37 11. Tax-Free Factories Sector, 1989-94 38 12. Consumer Prices, 1989-95 39 13. Paid Employment by Sector, 1989-94 40 14. Domestic Sales and Prices of Petroleum Products, 1989-94 41 15. Wage and Salary Earnings, 1989-94 42 16. Central Government Finances, 1989-95 43 17. Central Government Revenue and Grants, 1989-95 44 18. Central Government Debt, 1989-94 45 19. Financial Position of Major Public Enterprises, 1989-93 46 20. Operating Profits and Losses of Major Public Enterprises, 1989-94 47 21. Budgetary Appropriations to Major Public Enterprises, 1989-94 48 22. Monetary Survey, 1989-95 49 23. Assets of the Financial System, 1985-94 50 24. Balance Sheet of Monetary Authorities, 1989-95 51 25. Liquidity Position of Commercial Banks, 1989-95 52 26. Structure of Interest Rates, 1989-95 53 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -3- Contents Page 27. Deposit Money Banks, 1988-95 54 28. Loans and Advances of Commercial Banks, 1989-95 55 29. Ownership of Deposits of Commercial Banks, 1989-95 56 30. Maturity of Time Deposits of Commercial Banks, 1989-95 57 31. Consolidated Assets and Liabilities of Nonbank Financial Institutions, 1989-94 . 58 32. Balance of Payments, 1989-94 59 33. Exports by Commodity, 1989-94 60 34. Sugar Exports by Destination, 1989-94 61 35 Total Imports and Re-exports, 1989-94 62 36. Petroleum Product Imports, Re-exports, and Retained Imports, 1989-94 63 37. Direction of Trade, 1989-94 64 38. Services and Transfers, 1989-94 65 39. Capital Account, 1989-94 66 40. External Debt and Debt Service, 1989-1994 67 41. International Reserves, 1989-95 68 42. Items Under Import Licensing, 1989-94 69 Charts 1. Economic Performance, 1970-94 10 2. Real Effective Exchange Rate, Terms of Trade, and Trade Balance, 1970-94 . 11 3 Potential Output and Output Gaps, 1970-94 15 4. Per Capita Output, Population Growth, Openness, and Financial Development, 1970-94 21 5 Exchange Rate Developments, 1970-95 24 6. Underlying Trends in the Real Effective Exchange Rate, 1975-95 27 Referernces 31 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -4- Flji: Basic Data, 1989-94 Prov. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Growth (percent change) Population 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 Real GDP (at factor cost) 12.6 3.8 0.5 32 1.8 4.5 Sugarcane output 28.7 -2.0 -15.8 4.5 4.7 9.8 Tourist arrivals 20.4 11.3 -7.0 7.4 3.2 10.9 Inflation (percent change) Consumer prices (period average) I/ 6.1 82 6.5 4.9 52 0.6 Real wages -8.1 -2.3 -1.4 2.0 -02 2.4 Terms of trade (percent change) 2/ -13 -32 0.3 0.5 3.0 2.4 Employment (percent change) 3.0 1.6 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.2 Unemployment rate (in percent) 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.4 5.9 5.8 Money and credit (percent change) Domestic credit (net) 25.4 21.4 22.7 13.5 12.8 4.4 Government 1.6 -42.8 219.8 77.5 -5.1 -57.7 Other official entities -3.4 10.6 29.8 21.4 21.6 03 Private sector 31.4 25.1 18.7 9.7 12.9 8.7 Broad money (M2) 9.4 25.2 14.3 14.3 6.7 2.7 Investment and savings (percent of GDP) Gross domestic investment 14.3 1S2 13.9 13.4 15.6 14.9 Gross national savings 18.9 14.8 14.0 14.0 112 11.7 Central government budget (percent of GDP) Revenue and grants 25.8 27.3 26.5 252 253 25.8 Total expenditure 28.0 27.1 27.8 28.0 28.7 27.1 Current 21.5 22.3 22.4 23.7 25.1 232 Capital 6.5 4.7 5.4 4.4 3.7 3.9 Overall balance -22 0.3 -1.3 -2.9 -3.4 -13 Balance of payments (US$ mn.) Exports, f.o.b. 377.1 415.6 360.9 348.6 367.6 484.7 Imports, f.o.b. 489.0 641.6 5493 538.8 652.8 725.7 Net services and transfers 169.1 179.7 189.6 2002 2123 182.6 Current account balance 57.2 -46.3 12 10.0 -72.8 -58.4 (In percent of GDP) (4.6) (-3.4) (0.1) (0.6) (-4.4) (-32) Capital account balance 3/ -57.1 50.6 -8.1 48.4 -43 20.4 Overall balance/deficit (-) -4.1 43.2 15.0 652 -40.0 -8.8 Gross official reserves (US$ mn.; end of period) 213.4 261.8 2723 3193 270.4 274.5 (In months of imports, c.i.f.) (4.8) (4.6) (5.5) (6.8) (4.5) (4.1) External debt (US$ mn.; end of period) 347.7 3252 286.5 284.1 278.5 261.7 (In percent of GDP) (27.9) (23.5) (19.4) (18.6) (16.6) (13.6) Debt service (US$ mn.) 89.1 1062 86.8 73.7 80.6 94.9 (In percent of exports of goods and services) (12.1) (12.6) (11.0) (9.6) (9.4) (8.8) Exchange rate (end of period) Nominal effective rate 4/ 66.0 65.6 66.0 65.8 67.0 68.0 Real effective rate 4/ 68.0 70.1 71.0 73.8 753 75.0 FSperUSS 1.49 1.46 1.47 1.56 1.54 1.41 Quota = SDR 51. 1 million Sources: Data provided by the Fiji authorities; and staff estimates. II Starting from 1994, data reflect the new consumer price index (1993 base year). 21 Average of main categories of export and import unit values weighted by the 1987-89 composition of Fiji's trade. 3/ Excludes errors and omissions. 41 IMF, Information Notice System index, 1980= 100, adjusted to exclude Brazil from Fiji's trading partners covered by the index. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -5- L Review and Analysis of Growth Performance A. Introduction Fiji is one of the most developed of the Pacific island economies (PIEs), with a per capita GDP of about US$2,300 and a population of 780,000 (Table I).1 Although garments have emerged as a major export sector, Fiji's economy remains highly dependent on the sugar and tourism sectors, which account for about 40 percent of foreign exchange earnings. Despite favorable natural resource endowment and a relatively well-developed infrastructure, Fiji's growth has averaged only 214 percent over the last 20 years, and the growth pattern has been characterized by a high degree of volatility. This paper reviews Fiji's growth performance since the late 1960s and empirically examines the factors underlying its weak performance. It concludes that Fiji's growth performance, like most of the other PIEs, has been constrained by its remoteness and vulnerability to external shocks.