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Enter Job Name Here Bellingen Shire Employment Lands Strategy FINAL DRAFT REPORT PUBLIC EXHIBITION VERSION PREPARED FOR Bellingen Shire Council April 2012 Hill PDA ABN 52 003 963 755 3rd Floor 234 George Street Sydney GPO Box 2748 Sydney NSW 2001 t. +61 2 9252 8777 f. +61 2 9252 6077 e. [email protected] w. www.hillpda.com Ref: C11058 Final Draft P a g e | 1 Hill PDA Bellingen Shire Employment Lands Strategy ABN 52 003 963 755 Sydney Office 3rd Floor 234 George Street Sydney GPO Box 2748 Sydney NSW 2001 t. +61 2 9252 8777 f. +61 2 9252 6077 e. [email protected] Melbourne Office Level 9, 365 Little Collins St Melbourne GPO Box 3424 Melbourne VIC 3001 t. +61 3 9642 2449 f. +61 3 9642 2459 e. [email protected] w. www.hillpda.com Liability limited by a scheme approved under the Professional Standards Legislation Ref: C11058 Final Draft P a g e | 2 Hill PDA QUALITY ASSURANCE REPORT CONTACT: Nicholas Hill Consultant QUALITY CONTROL This document is for discussion purposes only unless signed and dated by a Principal of Hill PDA. REVIEWED BY Dated Sarah Hill Director and Principal Planner REPORT DETAILS: Job Ref No: C11072 Version: Final Draft Date Printed: 29/03/2012 11:55:00 AM File Name: C11072 - Draft Bellingen Employment Lands Strategy March 8 2012 Ref: C11058 Final Draft P a g e | 3 Hill PDA Bellingen Shire Employment Lands Strategy CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................11 1.1 Contextual Analysis ..................................................................................................... 11 1.2 Forecasting Demand for Floorspace and Land ............................................................ 12 1.3 Supply versus Demand ................................................................................................ 13 1.4 Housing for the Aged ................................................................................................... 13 1.5 A New Caravan Park for Bellingen Shire ..................................................................... 14 1.6 Recommendations for Expansion and Rezoning ......................................................... 15 1.7 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................... 17 PART A – BELLINGEN TODAY ...................................................................................................18 2. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................19 2.1 Strategy Brief and Scope ............................................................................................. 19 1.1. Strategy Structure ........................................................................................................ 19 2.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 20 2.3 Study Area Context ...................................................................................................... 20 3. WHO LIVES & WORKS IN BELLINGEN SHIRE? ...................................................................22 3.1 Bellingen Shire‟s Existing Population &Forecast Growth ............................................. 22 3.2 Existing and Forecast Age Distribution ........................................................................ 23 3.3 Household Formation Rates ........................................................................................ 24 3.4 Income Profile .............................................................................................................. 24 3.5 Index of Advantage and Disadvantage ........................................................................ 25 3.6 Labour Force Characteristics ....................................................................................... 26 3.7 What Industries do Bellingen Residents Work In? ....................................................... 27 3.8 Jobs Generated within Bellingen Shire ........................................................................ 28 3.9 Where do Bellingen Shire‟s Residents Work? ............................................................. 29 3.10 Who Works in Bellingen Shire? ................................................................................... 29 3.11 Location Quotients ....................................................................................................... 30 3.12 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................... 31 4. HOUSING TRENDS IN BELLINGEN ....................................................................................33 4.1 Household Characteristics ........................................................................................... 33 4.2 Household Type and Ownership .................................................................................. 34 4.3 The Cost of Housing .................................................................................................... 34 4.4 Housing Stress ............................................................................................................ 36 4.5 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................... 36 5. EXISTING EMPLOYMENT LANDS AND CENTRES ................................................................37 5.1 Summary of Floorspace within Centres ....................................................................... 37 5.2 Summary of Industrial Land Area ................................................................................ 38 5.3 Bellingen Major Town Centre ....................................................................................... 39 5.4 Dorrigo Town Centre ................................................................................................... 43 5.5 Urunga Coastal Village ................................................................................................ 47 5.6 The Raleigh Industrial Precinct .................................................................................... 50 5.7 The Dorrigo Industrial Precincts ................................................................................... 52 5.8 North Urunga Industrial Precinct .................................................................................. 54 5.9 The Bellingen – Tamarind Drive Industrial Precinct ..................................................... 57 Ref: C11058 Final Draft P a g e | 4 Hill PDA Bellingen Shire Employment Lands Strategy 6. POLICY & BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS ............................................................................59 6.1 Mid North Coast Regional Strategy ............................................................................. 59 6.2 Mid North Coast Regional and Settlement Guidelines ................................................. 59 6.3 Bellingen Shire Growth Management Strategy 2006 – 2026 ....................................... 60 6.4 Dorrigo Bellingen LEP 2010 and DCP 2010 ................................................................ 61 6.5 Draft Bellingen Shire 5 Year Economic and Tourism Development Plan..................... 61 PART B – BELLINGEN LOOKING FORWARD ................................................................................63 7. TRENDS INFLUENCING EMPLOYMENT LANDS ...................................................................64 7.1 Australian Economy ..................................................................................................... 64 7.2 Bellingen‟s Local Economy .......................................................................................... 65 7.3 Research and Innovation - The New Economy............................................................ 67 7.4 Urban and Business Support Services ........................................................................ 68 7.5 Retail ............................................................................................................................ 68 7.6 Commercial and Industrial Industries ........................................................................... 71 7.7 Tourism ........................................................................................................................ 73 8. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH SCENARIOS ...............................................................................76 8.1 Potential Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 76 8.2 Scenario 1: Trend Continuation ................................................................................... 76 8.3 Scenario 2: Population and Aspirational Growth.......................................................... 78 9. DEMAND FOR RETAIL FLOORSPACE ...............................................................................80 9.1 Bellingen Trade Area ................................................................................................... 80 9.2 Existing Retail Demand and Expenditure .................................................................... 81 9.3 Existing Supply vs. Existing Demand ........................................................................... 83 9.4 Future Household Retail Demand ................................................................................ 84 9.5 Tourism Expenditure ...................................................................................................
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