Algeria Focus April 2014

>>>Menas AlgeriaFocus 4/14 Politically independent monthly news and analysis of strategic developments in Algeria Elections deliver fourth term for Bouteflika but also an uncertain future BOUTEFLIKA CASTS HIS VOTE April has been dominated by the presidential sole topic of news and even conversation for Fearing that the elections might be disrupted, April 2014 · Volume 13 · Number 4 Number · 13 Volume · 2014 April election: three weeks of campaigning, followed several weeks. Moreover, Abdelmalek Sellal, Presidential election: the government, in an obvious attempt to blame by polling, the results and now the question of prime mister until he briefly vacated his office to official results (% of vote) ‘the old enemy’, leaked a ‘highly classified’ where Algeria goes from here. serve as Bouteflika’s campaign manager, had security report to the media, which warned of a spent most of the previous three to four months “foreign plot” to cause chaos and destabilise The official result was announced on the on a more or less non-stop tour of the wilayas Abdelaziz Bouteflika 81.53% Algeria. The report, almost certainly fabricated, afternoon of 18 April, less than 24 hours after on what was financed as “government (prime said that 56 Moroccans had been recruited to Ali Benflis 12.18% the polls closed. It was, as expected, a massive ministerial) business”, but which everyone could enter Algeria individually and to create chaos in victory for the incumbent President Abdelaziz see was nothing more than electioneering. Abdelaziz Belaïd 3.03% the wilayas. How one Moroccan per wilaya could Bouteflika, who will serve a fourth term, Louisa Hanoune 1.37% “create chaos” was not explained. As it turned although it is most unlikely, given his health and Security throughout the campaign was massive. Ali Fawzi Rebaïne 0.99% out, there was no such chaos and Morocco age, that he will survive it. Some 130,000 gendarmes and 100,000 troops, survived the election. Moussa Touati 0.99% not to mention the police, were mobilised The electoral campaign officially kicked off on ostensibly to protect the country from terrorist Disinterest, anger, cynicism and 23 March, although few would have noticed the attack, but in reality to protect the regime from Turnout 51.7% resentment fact, given that the election and especially the possibility of political demonstrations and The overall mood during the election period was Bouteflika’s fourth term had been the almost unrest gaining national momentum. a mixture of disinterest, anger, cynicism and >>> Politics and security Geopolitics 7 Economy 7 Energy sector 10 Business environment 12 > Elections deliver fourth term for Bouteflika > Badly-timed Kerry visit rouses controversy > Under the spotlight > Can the hydrocarbons decline be redressed? > Businessmen grease the Bouteflika wheels but also an uncertain future > EU looks to Algeria to fill the Russian gap > China-Algeria trade increases fifteen-fold > Where does Algeria go from here? > New Arzew LNG plant to sell first gas in > Security concerns focus on prospect of June-July mounting violence > Eni looks for price cut 2 resentment. It was clear from the outset that, attended or even cancelled. Attendances were his vote on polling day. He was pushed into the >>>Menas Associates with all the Islamist and opposition parties and high only in Ali Benflis’s home town of Batna, polling station in a wheelchair, with his hand movements boycotting the elections, the voter where he has a big local following, or because having to be held to help him cast his vote. It Algeria Focus is published monthly turnout would be minimal, and that the crowds were paid to attend or were bused in, as was his first public appearance since 8 May Sold by subscription only government would have to rely on even greater in the case of many of Bouteflika’s campaign 2012 when he gave a speech in Setif on the eve Produced by Menas Associates staff fraud than usual to come up with even a rallies, or because of demonstrations. Several of the legislative elections. Managing director: Charles Gurdon moderately acceptable ‘official’ turnout figure. Bouteflika rallies were simply cancelled because Production editor: Miles Smith-Morris of the threat of demonstrations and more bad It is probably true to say that Bouteflika’s ISSN 1477-2442 The boycott was massive primarily because all publicity or because of non-attendance. popularity, which has now fallen to rock bottom, © 2014 All rights reserved Algerians know that elections are a fraudulent deteriorated as the campaign went on. One Menas Associates Ltd sham, and that this election would be more Although demonstrations greeted most rallies, reason for this was the almost daily stream of 31 Southampton Row fraudulent than usual. A second reason was the especially those held by Bouteflika’s campaign, high-profile regime dignitaries coming out in London WC1B 5HJ United Kingdom widespread opposition and anger at Bouteflika’s there was relatively little violence. The most public against his fourth term. It was Algeria Focus · April 2014 April · Focus Algeria +44 (0)20 3585 1401 Phone decision to run for a fourth term. Indeed, one of serious was at Bejaïa, where a Sellal rally condemned by former president Liamine [email protected] the most interesting features of the election resulted in a building being set on fire and four Zeroual (1994–98). Such criticism from Zeroual, www.menas.co.uk was the emergence of the ‘Barakat!’ movement, TV crew members attacked and injured. Street his immediate predecessor, was bad enough. meaning literally ‘Enough’ (of Bouteflika) in violence also led to a number of injuries and However, the El Khabar TV channel found and Arabic. This was a predominantly middle class arrests. Sellal also ran into violent protests at broadcast an old video made by the late Ali Kafi, Copyright protest movement, rooted mostly in Algiers and Tizi Ouzou and Metlilli (30km from Ghardaia), chairman of the High Council of State (that is, All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of Menas Associates Ltd and as such no part of this the other major cities, but it failed to gain the where his cavalcade was heavily stoned. Benflis the country’s president) from 1992–94. Kafi publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or any means sort of national momentum that much of the also ran into strong opposition in Bouïra where called Bouteflika a thief, because he embezzled graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, media expected. Its widespread demonstrations protesters forced him to stop a rally. $23 million when foreign minister, and therefore recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the were peaceful, apart from occasional police someone who could not be trusted to look after publisher. violence. Although few of them rallied many Bouteflika’s campaign Algeria’s interests. Disclaimer more than 100 demonstrators, they brought performance condemned by peers Menas Associates Ltd cannot ensure against or be held huge international attention, thanks to the Bouteflika did not appear during the election, One of the most vicious and damaging attacks responsible for inaccuracies. To the full extent permissible by law Menas Associates Ltd shall have no liability for any damage media interest, to the sham of Algerian elections apart from for a few seconds on television when on Bouteflika came from Ahmed Bencherif, an or loss (including, without limitation, financial loss, loss of and the extent of opposition to a Bouteflika greeting visiting foreign dignitaries: US 86-year-old former colonel and head of the profits, loss of business or any indirect or consequential loss), however it arises, resulting from the use of any material fourth term. secretary of state John Kerry, the Emir of Qatar national gendarmerie. At a press conference at appearing in this publication or from any action or decision taken as a result of using the publication. Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani and Spain’s Benflis’s election headquarters, Bencherif In fact, interest in the election was at such a low foreign minister José Manuel García-Margallo. accused Saïd Bouteflika, the president’s level that most campaign meetings were poorly His only physical appearance was when he cast younger brother, of being “at the head of a >>> Menas Associates >>> Visit our new website at www.menas.co.uk www.menas.co.uk Politics and security 1 Geopolitics 7 Economy 7 Energy sector 10 Business environment 12 3 political-financial mafia that has taken Algeria fraudulent) votes than Bouteflika. This fact, turnout figure threefold. The official figure for hostage” (see page 12). along with an expected turnout of less than the May 2012 legislative elections was put at 15%, raised the academically interesting 43.14%, while our calculations, along with those Bencherif really put the knife into the question of how the government would actually of most other analysts, put the real figure at incumbent, however, when he said that rig the poll so as to come up with even vaguely around 12–15%. A similar threefold Bouteflika did not have the right to call himself a credible figures. manipulation was seen in the previous 2009 ‘Mujahid’, as he had spent only one week in the presidential election. The government put the underground (the maquis), during which time he With the four other candidates entirely official figure at 75.54%, whereas a Wikileaks- didn’t fire a single shot. He spent the rest of the irrelevant to proceedings, the issue was how the released communication from the US embassy in War of Liberation in Oujda. For someone who government would ‘allocate’ the votes between Algeria to the State Department put the figure has tried to make much of a questionable Bouteflika and Benflis.

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