THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations WMO was created: to facilitate international co-operation in the establishment of networks of stations and centres to provide meteorological and hydrological services and observations, to promote the establishment and maintenance of systems for the rapid exchange of meteorological and related information, to promote standardization of meteorological and related observations and ensure the uniform publication of observations and statistics, to further the application of meteorology to aviation, shipping, water problems, agriculture and other human activities, to promote activities in operational hydrology and to further close co-operation between Meteoro logical and Hydrological Services, to encourage research and training in meteorology and, as appropriate, in related fields. The World Meteorological Congress is the supreme body of the Organization. It brings together the delegates of all Members once every four years to determine general policies for the fulfilment of the purposes of the Organization. The Executive Council is composed of 36 directors of national Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Services serving in an individual capacity; it meets at least once a year to supervise the programmes approved by Congress. Six Regional Associations are each composed of Members whose task is to co-ordinate meteorological and related activities within their respective regions. Eight Technical Commissions composed of experts designated by Members, are responsible for studying meteorological and hydrological operational systems, applications and research.
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL President: Zou JrNGMENO (China) First Vice- President: J. W. ZILLMAN (Australia) Second Vice- President: S. ALAIMO (Argentina) Third Vice- President: J. T HOUGHTON (United Kingdom) Regional Association presidents Africa (I): North and Central America (IV): W. DEGEFU (Ethiopia) C. E. BERRIDGE Asia (II): (British Caribbean Territories) ISSA HUSSAIN AL-MAJED (Qatar) (acting} South-West Pacific (V): South America (Ill): J. HICKMAN (New Zealand) T. R. PRADO FERNANDEZ (Venezuela) Europe (VI) : ., E. J. JATILA (Finland) (acting) Elected members A. I. ABANDAH (Jordan) A. LEBEAU (France) L.-K. AHIALEGBEDZ! (Togo) K. MOSTEFA KARA (Algeria) A. L. ALUSA (Kenya) A. D. MouRA (Brazil) D. M. BAUTISTA PflREZ (Spain) S. PALMIERI (Italy) M. -BouLAMA (Niger) MALIK F. M. QASIM (Pakistan) C:CANDANEDO (Panama) H. REISER (Federal Rep. of Germany) A. M. EirMASRY (Egypt) V. RICHTER (Czechoslovakia) H. L. FEROUSON (Canada) R: M. ROMAIH (Saudi Arabia) C. A. GREZZI (Uruguay) R. P. SARKER (India) R. E. HALLGREN (USA) S. E. TANDOH (Ghana) Yu. A. IZRAEL (USSR) P. TOUBBE (Cameroon) Y. KIKUCH! (Japan) E. ZARATE HERNANDEZ (Costa Rica) R. L. KINTANAR (Philippines) M. C. ZINYOWERA (Zimbabwe)
TECHNICAL COMMISSION PRESIDENTS Aeronautical Meteorology: J. KASTELEIN Hydrology: 0. STAROSOLSZKY Agricultural Meteorology: A. KASSAR Instruments and Methods of Observation : Atmospheric Sciences: F. MESINGER S. HUOVILA Basic Systems: J. R. NEILON Marine Meteorology: F. GflRARD Climatology: J. L. RASMUSSEN The Secretariat of the Organization is located at 41 avenue Giuseppe-Motta, Geneva, Switzerland TECNAVIA S.A. Electronic Laboratories and Engineering CH-6982 AGNO/Lugano Airport- Switzerland, tel. 091 59 3402/03 Telex 840 009 teen-eh. Your single source, around the globe, for meteorological systems capability. • •
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MUNRO LTD ~~ Gilbert House, 406 Roding Lane South, MUNRD Woodford Green, Essex IG8 BEY England Tel: 01-591 7000, 01-551 661.3 _/ ~" Telex: 24130 Muntel G ~!Jf: ATMOSPHERIC ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT MICROMETEOROLOGY AND MICROMETEOROLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS INDUSTRIAL AERODYNAMICS Editors: DJ MOO RE, Central Electricity Research Laboratory, Leatherhead, Surrey KT22 7SE, UK, J P LODGE Jr, 385 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303, USA, M BENARIE, !nstitut Nationale de Recherche Chimique App/iquee, 12 Rue de I'Yveline, 91220 Bretigny, France One of the oldest established journals in A selection of papers the field, Atmospheric Environment Urban Dew: Its composition and influence publishes papers on all aspects of Man's on dry deposition rates, P A MULAWA et interactions with his atmospheric al. environment, including the administrative, The production and release to the economic and political aspects ofthese atmosphere of CCI 3F and CCI/2 interactions. Air pollution research and its 1Chlorofluorocarbons CFC 11 and CFC 12), applications are covered, taking into PH GAMLEN eta!. account changes in the atmospheric flow A Na2c03_coated denuder and filter for patterns, temperature distributions and determination of gaseous HN03 "nd chemical constitution caused by natural particulate N03 ;n the atmosphere, and artificial variations in the earth's M FERM. surface. Sulfate and nitrate chemistry in cumuliform clouds, D A HEGG & P V HOBBS. Atmospheric Environment has one of the Estimating extreme values of air quality largest circulations of scholarly journals of data using different fitted distributions, this kind, and its high reputation is reflected D P CHOCK & P S SLUCHAK. in the frequency of references to it. Nineteenth century black Scottish showers, Recently it extended its scope to include the P BRIMBLECOMBE et al. publication of book reviews and a bibliography. New Patents Section- The journal now contains abstracts and illustrations of The editors welcome the submission of recently issued United States Patents and papers, notes and reports of meetings for published patent applications filed from publication. Papers should describe over 30 countries under the Patent Co original work and be of general interest. operation Treaty. Contributions should be submitted to one ofthe Editors. Subscription Information Published monthly (Volume 21) Annual subscription (1987) DM1700.00 Two-year rate (1987/88) DM3230.00 FREE SAMPLE COPIES AVAILABLE ON REQUEST Advertising rate card available on request. Back issues and Pergamon current subscriptions are also available in microform. Prices are subject to change without notice. The Deutsche Headington Hill Hall, Oxford OX3 UK Mark prices shown are definitive and include postage and OBW, insurance. Please enquire for equivalent prices in other Fairview Park, Elmsford. New York 10523, USA currencies. 8BI22107l86 Climatic Change An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change Editor Stephen H. Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Re search, Boulder, USA Climatic Change is a journal dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change. Its purpose is to provide a means of exchange among those working on problems related to climatic variations, but in different disciplines. Re searchers in any discipline, whether it be meteorology, anthropol ogy, agriculture science, astronomy, biology, chemistry, eco nomics, engineering, geology, ecology, and history of climate, are invited to submit articles. This means that authors have an . opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians. Volume 8 No. 1 contains indexes to Volumes 1-7. Subscription Information ISSN 0165-0009 1987, Volume 10-11 (6 issues) Institutional rate: Dfl. 370.00/US$154.00 incl. postage/handling Private rate: Dfl. 150.00/US$62.00 incl. postage/handling Private subscriptions should be sent direct to the publishers Back Volume(s) Available Price per Volume Volumes 1-9 (1977-1986) excl. postage Dfl. 145.00/US$52.00 D. Reidel Publishing Company WMONo. Swjr. Manuals, guides and handbooks 8 Guide to meteorological instrument and observing practices. 1983 edition. E. 47.- 100 Guide to climatological practices. 1983 edition. E. 39.- 134 Guide to agricultural meteorological practices. 1981 edition. E- F- S. 29.- 168 Guide to hydrological practices Volume I- Data acquisition and processing. 1981 edition. E- F- S. 38.- Volume 11- Analysis, forecasting and other applications. 1983 edition. E- S. 46.- 197 Manual on meteorological observing in transport aircraft. 1978 edition. E. 7.- 305 Guide on the Global Data-processing System. 1982 edition. E- F-R. 27.- 306 Manual on codes Volume I-International codes. 1984 edition. E- F-R-S (without cover) 87.- Vo1ume 11 - Regional codes and national coding practices. 1982 edition. E - F. (without cover) 47.- Cover 13.- 386 Manual on the Global Telecommunication System Volume I - Global aspects (1986) and Volume 11 - Regional aspects (1986). E- F. 140.- Cover 21.- 414 North Atlantic Ocean Stations vessel manual. 1975 edition. F-R. 34.- 446 Handbook on wave analysis and forecasting. 1976 edition. F- S. 41.- 468 Guide on the automation of meteorological telecommunication centres. 1977 edition. E. 19.- 4 71 Guide to marine meteorological services. 1982 edition. E - F - S. 34.- 485 Manual on the Global Data-processing System Volume I - Global aspects and Volume 11: Regional aspects. 1977 edition. E- F-R-S. 41.- 488 Guide on the Global Observing System. 1977 edition. E- F- S. 47.- 491 International operations handbook for measurement of background atmospheric pollution. 1978 edition. F- S. 35.- 544 Manual on the Global Observing System Volume I - Global aspects and Volume 11 - Regional aspects. 1981 edition. E - F- R - S. 27.- 558 Manual on marine meteorological services: Volumes I and 11. 1981 edition. E- F-R-S. 26.- 623 Guide to the IGOSS data-processing and service system. (1983). E. 7.- 634 Guidelines for computerized data processing in operational hydrology and land and water management. (1985). E. 34.- 636 Guidelines on the automation of data-processing centres (1985). E. 25.- Atlases Climatic atlas of Europe: Volume I- Maps of mean temperature and precipitation. (1971). Quadri lingual E/F/R/S. 172.- Climatic atlas of South America: Volume I- Maps of mean temperature and precipitation. (1975). Quadrilingual E/F/R/S. 197.- Climatic atlas of North and Central America: Volume I - Maps of mean temperature and precipitation. (1979). Quadrilingual E/F/R/S. 172.- Climatic atlas ofAsia: Volume I-Monthly and annual maps of temperature and precipitation. (1981). Quadrilingual E/F/R/S. 202.- International cloud atlas (abridged edition). (1956). E. 47.- 407 International cloud atlas Volume I-Manual on the observation of clouds and other meteors. (1975). F. 68.- Volume 11 (album of photographs) (1987). E- F. 78.- International cloud album for observers in aircraft. (1956). E- F. 15.- 659 Marine cloud album (1987). E. 20.- Basic documents, Technical regulations, etc. 15 Basic documents. 1983 edition. E- F-R-S- Arabic. 34.- 49 Technical regulations Volume I-General. 1984 edition. E- F-R-S. 28.- Volume 11 - Meteorological service for international air navigation. 1976 edition. F-R. 35.- Volume Ill- Operational hydrology. 1979 edition. E- F-R-S. 15.- 60 Agreements and working arrangements with other international organizations. 1983 edition. E. 21.- 249 WMONo. Swjr. Weather reporting, stations, data processing and transmissions 9 Weather reporting Volume A - Observing stations. Bilingual ElF. (Explanatory texts EIFIR!S). Basic volume with cover 145'.- Revised edition issued twice yearly. Annual subscription: Surface mail 134.- Airmail 174.- Volume B- Data processing. Bilingual ElF. Basic volume with cover 78.- Annual subscription for supplement service: Surface mail 30.- Airmail 46.- Volume C - Transmissions. Bilingual ElF (Regulatory material EIFIR!S). Basic volume with cover 152.- Annual subscription for supplement service (complete volume): Surface mail 132.- Airmail 184.- Catalogue of meteorological bulletins (reprint from Chapter I)(EIF). Annual subscription for supplement service Surface mail: 88.- Airmail: 120.- Volume D - Information for shipping. Bilingual E/F.(Regulatory material EIFIRIS). Basic volume with cover 183.- Annual subscription for supplement service: Surface mail 96.- Airmail 158.- Meteorologica/facsimile broadcasts (reprint from Volume D, Part Aii). Basic volume with cover 21.- Annual subscription for supplement service: Surface mail 22.- Airmail 38.- Coastal radio stations accepting ships' weather reports (reprint from Volume D, Part B). Basic volume with cover 21.- Annual subscription for supplement service: Surface mail 22.- Airmail 38.- Operational Hydrology Reports (In English, unless otherwise stated) 332 Manual for estimation ofprobable maximum precipitation. No. 1 (1986). 33.- 341 Benefit and cost analysis ofhydrologica/forecasts: A state-ofthe art report. No. 3 (1973). 15.- 356 Applications of hydrology to water resources management. No. 4 (1975). F. 31.- 425 Hydrological forecasting practices. No. 6 (1975). 26.- 429 Intercomparison of conceptual models used in operational hydrological forecasting. No. 7 (197 5). 28.- 433 Hydrological network design and information transfer No. 8 (1976). 36.- 461 Casebook ofexamples of organization and operation ofHydrological Services. No. 9 (1977). 27.- 464 Statistical information on activities in operational hydrology. No. 10 (1977). 28.- 476 Hydrological application of atmospheric vapour flux analyses. No. 11 (1977). 13.- 513 Applications of remote sensing to hydrology. No. 12 (1979). 14.- 519 Manual on stream gauging Volume I-Fieldwork and Volume II- Computation of discharge. No. 13 (1980). 61.- 559 Hydrological data transmission. No. 14 (1981). 8.- 560 Selection of distribution types for extremes of precipitation. No. 15 (1981). 9.- 561 Measurements of river sediments. No. 16 (1981). 10.- 576 Case studies of national hydrological data banks (planning, dev.elopment and organization). No. 17 (1981). ' 15.- 577 Flash flood forecasting. No. 18 (1981). 9.- 580 Concepts and techniques in hydrological network design. No. 19 (1982). 9.- 587 Long-range water-supply forecasting. No. 20 (1982). 9.- 589 Methods ofcorrection for systematic error in point precipitation measurement for operational use. No. 21 (1982). 14.- 635 Casebook on operational assessment of area/ evaporation. No. 22 (1985). 23.- 646 Intercomparison of models ofsnowmelt runoff No. 23 (1986). 51.- 650 Level and discharge measurement under difficult conditions. No. 24 (1986). 10.- 658 Methods of measurement and estimation of discharges at hydraulic structures. No. 26 (1986). 10.- 248 SELECTED LIST OF WMO PUBLICATIONS Prices indicated are in Swiss francs and include postage by surface mail. A quotation for dispatch by airmail will be sent on request. Prepayment is required for all orders (see box). E =English, F = French, R = Russian, S = Spanish. Note: Except for publications indicated as being multilingual, the different language versions are published separately and the price refers to the version in one language only. WMONo. Sw.fr. Training publications 114 Guide to qualifications and training of meteorological personnel employed in the provision of meteorological services for international air navigation. (1974). E- F-R-S. 13.- 258 Guidelines for the education and training of meteorological personnel (1984). E. 39.- 266 Compendium of lecture notes for training Class IV meteorological personnel Volume I- Earth science (1970). E. 23.- Volume II-Meteorology. (1984). E. 47.- 327 Compendium of lecture notes in climatology for Class IV meteorological personnel. (1972). s. 25.- 364 Compendium of meteorology for use by Class I and Class II meteorological personnel Volume I, Part 1-Dynamic meteorology. (1973). F- S. 43.- Volume I, Part 2- Physical meteorology. (1973). F- S. 31.- Volume I, Part 3- Synoptic meteorology. (1978). E. 39.- Volume II, Part 1 - General hydrology. (1977). E. 13.- Volume II, Part 2 -Aeronautical meteorology. (1978). E - F - S. 19.- Volume II, Part 3- Marine meteorology. (1979). E- F- S. 16.- Volume II, Part 4- Tropical meteorology. (1979). E. 40.- Volume II, Part 5- Hydrometeorology. (1984). E. 19.- Volume II, Part 6- Air chemistry and air pollution meteorology. (1985). E. 26.- 382 Compendium of lecture notes for training personnel in the applications of meteorology to economic and social development. (1976). E- F- S. 31.- 434 Compendium of lecture notes in marine meteorology for Class Ill and Class IV personnel. (1976). F- S. 32.- 489 Compendium of training facilities in environmental problems related to meteorology and operational hydrology. (1977). E. 28.- 593 Lecture notes for training Class IV agricultural meteorological personnel. (1982). E- F- S. 19.- 622 Compendium of lecture notes on meteorological instruments for Class Ill and Class IV meteorological personnel Volume I, Part 1 -Meteorological instruments and Part 2- Meteorological instrument maintenance workshop, calibration laboratories and routine (1986). E. 39.- Volume II, Part 3- Basic electronics for the meteorologist (1986). E. 37.- 669 Workbook on numerical weather prediction for the tropics for the training of Class I and Class ll meteorological personnel (1986). E. 39.- Orders for WMO publications should be addressed directly to : The Secretary -General, World Meteorological Organization, Case postale 5, CH-1211 Geneva 20, Switzerland. WMO's bank account: Lloyds Bank International Ltd, Geneva, No. 182222-01-00. Residents in Canada and the United States of America should place their order with: American Meteorological Society, WMO Publications Center, 45 Beacon Street, Boston, MA 02108, USA. The catalogue of WMO publications will be sent free of charge on request Readers are reminded that if they have difficulty in purchasing WMO publications due to exchange control regulations, in many countries they may make use o(Unesco Coupons for this purpose. The procedure is described in the WMO Bulletin 35 (2) p. 201 (Aprill986). 247 MEMBERS OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION* STATES (155) Afghanistan Gabon Panama Albania Gambia Papua New Guinea Algeria German Democratic Rep. Paraguay Angola Germany, Fed. Rep. of Peru Argentina Ghana Philippines Australia Greece Poland Austria Guatemala Portugal Bahamas Guinea Qatar Bahrain Guinea-Bissau Republic of Korea Bangladesh Guyana Romania Barbados Haiti Rwanda Belgium Honduras Saint Lucia Belize Hungary Sao Tome and Principe Benin Iceland Saudi Arabia Bolivia India Senegal Botswana Indonesia Seychelles Brazil Iran, Islamic Rep. of Sierra Leone Brunei Darussalam Iraq Singapore Bulgaria Ireland Solomon Islands Burkina Faso Israel Somalia Burma Italy South Africa t Burundi Jamaica Spain Byelorussian S.S.R. Japan Sri Lanka Cameroon Jordan Sudan Canada Kenya Suriname Cape Verde Kuwait Swaziland Central African Republic Lao People's Dem. Rep. Sweden Chad Lebanon Switzerland Chile Lesotho Syrian Arab Republic China Liberia Thailand Colombia Libyan Arab Jamahiriya Togo Comoros Luxembourg Trinidad and Tobago Congo Madagascar Tunisia Costa Rica Malawi Turkey COte d'Ivoire Malaysia Uganda Cuba Maldives Ukranian S.S.R. Cyprus Mali Union of Soviet Socialist Czechoslovakia Malta Republics Democratic Kampuchea Mauritania United Arab Emirates Democratic People's Mauritius United Kingdom of Great Republic of Korea Mexico Britain and Northern Ireland Democratic Yemen Mongolia Urdted Rep. of Tanzania Denmark Morocco United States of America Djibouti Mozambique Uruguay Dominica Nepal Vanuatu Dominican Republic Netherlands Venezuela Ecuador New Zealand VietNam Egypt Nicaragua Yemen El Salvador Niger Yugoslavia Ethiopia Nigeria Zaire Fiji Norway Zambia Finland Oman Zimbabwe France Pakistan TERRITORIES (5) British Caribbean Territories Netherlands Antilles French Polynesia New Caledonia Hong Kong t Suspended by Resolution 38 (Cg-VII) from exercising its rights and enjoying its privileges as a Member of WMO •on I May 1987 246 lake waters are thus of no use for human consumption. He argues, however, in favour of studying more extensively the hydrology of the whole Lake Eyre Basin (an area which represents about one-sixth of the continent) where any fresh water is of great value, if not at present, then as a potential for the future. This is a high-quality publication which makes extensive use of graphic illustrations and striking colour photographs. A considerable amount of interesting data are presented, together with a glossary of technical terms, the list of references and an index. The most notable feature is the inclusion of nearly 100 excellent photographs. Most are taken from the air and many are derived from satellite imagery. The book could be purchased simply on the strength of the illustrative and aesthetic value of the photographs. As a hydrological report, the book does have some shortcomings. It introduces the subject well but does not describe in any detail how the relevant data were collected and analysed. It is difficult, therefore, to follow through all the author's arguments so as to arrive at an independent view as regards his findings. However, had more comprehensive technical information been included, the volume would certainly have lost some of its appeal to a wider public, for there is no doubt that it is of interest and value to a far broader readership than the hydrological community alone. Lake Eyre lies within the state of South Australia. The author is employed by that state's Engineering and Water Supply Department, and both are to be congratulated on its presentation. They have attempted to bridge the gap between a general interest in a region and a sound understanding of its geophysical characteristics, and they have succeeded. The book should serve to widen public interest in the hydrology of inland Australia and, hopefully, foster a deeper technical understanding of this fascinating region of the world. Moreover, it maintains its relevance far beyond the shores of Australia, and will be of value to all who study or have interest in the natural environment, particularly the environment of arid lands. A. J. A. New books received The Uncertainty Business - Risks and opportunities in weather and climate, by W. J. MAUNDER. Methuen & Co., Andover, England (1986). xxviii + 420 pages; figures and tables. Price: £45.-. The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change and Ecosystems- SCOPE 29. B. BOLIN, B. R. Doos, J. JA.GER and R. A. WARWICK (Editors). John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England (1986). xxxi + 541 pages; figures and tables. Price: £56.-. Envirosoft 86 (conference proceedings). P. ZANNETTI (Editor). Computational Mechanics Publications, Southampton, England (1986). 809 pages; figures and tables. Price $US110. or £73.-. Policy Aspects of Climate Forecasting. Richard KRASNOW (Editor). National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, Washington, DC (1986). xi + 167 pages; figures and tables. Price $US11.50 post-free. The Aerobiological Pathway of Microorganisms, by C. S. Cox. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England (1987). xii + 293 pages; figures and tables. Price: £32.-. Atlas of Australian Resources, Third series, Volume 4: Climate. Division of National Mapping, Canberra (1986). 60 pages; 40 figures, 16 tables. Price: $Al4.-. 245 of Rijkswaterstaat for the River Rhine, by J. G. de Ronde; Short-range flood forecasting on the River Rhine, by J. R. Moll; Design and operation offorecasting operational real-time hydrological systems (FORTH), by J. Nemec; Case studies on real-time river flow forecasting, by G. Fleming. Here the more practical aspects of using models are discussed, such as data collection and telemetry (O'Connell et al.), organization of a forecasting system (de Ronde), algorithms for computer solution (Grijsen), system design (Nemec), and data requirements and 'debugging' (Fleming). However, there is still strong emphasis on purely modelling aspects, and in some cases the models are applied for simulation rather than for forecasting. The aim of the book is to narrow the gap between theory and practice and minimize the time delay between the development and implementation of useful (publisher's italics) new methods. The papers in the first section certainly give good coverage of the principles and theory of various hydrological models. The second section is rather more uneven; while some chapters give good accounts of the practical development and operation of forecasting systems, there is still too much emphasis on purely modelling aspects. From the better chapters we learn the reasons why particular modelling approaches were adopted, about the importance of the data collection/telemetry system and the organization necessary for disseminating forecasts. The book should be useful background reading for hydrologists or water resources engineers planning to set up a forecasting system. J. B. M. Floods of Lake Eyre. By Vincent KOTWICKI. South Australian Government Printing Division, Netley (1986). 112 pages; 99 photographs, 24 figures, 5 tables, 6 maps. Price: $A34.95. Take any map of the world and look at Australia. If any features of the interior are shown, they are sure to include a large lake near the heart of the country. This is hardly surprising. One would expect to find a network of major inland rivers and lakes in this, the sixth largest country of the world covering more than 7.5 million square kilometres. The early European explorers long sought a fabled inland sea, but what they found was the driest continent on Earth - and Lake Eyre. Look more closely at the map and you will probably find that the shores of the lake are shown as dotted lines, and that its surface is not coloured blue like other large bodies of water. A lake of 9700 km2 in the centre of such arid land must surely be of great importance, and yet its shores are uninhabited and it is of no socio-economic significance. The answer to this enigma can be found by studying topographic and pluviometric maps of the continent. The former show that where there was once a great inland sea, relative changes in land and sea levels over millions of years have left a vast shallow bowl at the heart of the country. Well over one million square kilometres of this drain into Lake Eyre, which has no outlet. In addition, with a mean annual rainfall of 100-400 mm and mean annual evaporation of 2400-3600 mm, and with periods of drought often lasting many years, it should come as no surprise that Lake Eyre is not only salt but is, much of the time, quite dry. Yet the very extremes of climate and topography that characterize this region of the world make the Lake Eyre Basin of great interest to the naturalist and to the hydrologist. Mr Kotwicki is a hydrologist who is clearly fascinated by it. He sees this immense salt lake as one of the natural wonders of the world and sets out to answer the basic question: How much water flows to Lake Eyre, and how often? However, what might have been a very dry technical report is presented here in a wholly original format, and it is this, just as much as the subject, which is so unusual and worthy of note. If the author had set out to write about Lake Eyre in general, then one would be right to query the lack of information on flora and fauna and on the way of life of the local population, sparse though it be. One might also look for more about the groundwater resources of the region which are, in fact, its only reliable water supply. But these topics are well covered in other publications which Mr Kotwicki has included in his very adequate list of references. The subject of this book is quite clearly the surface waters of the basin and, in particular, the floods. The comparatively short text rarely strays far from the main theme. The author's findings are that, contrary to common belief, Lake Eyre contains some water more often than it is dry, and on average once every eight years almost all its area is covered. He notes that the fresh floodwaters entering the lake dissolve the salt crust and rapidly become highly saline and then evaporate; the 244 system; the sensitivity of the Earth's albedo is studied with respect to different aerosol compositions and to different particle radii, but it is shown that the long-wave radiation factor cannot be neglected. The radiative properties of aerosol are also reviewed according to the different circumstances under which they were formed. The next chapter presents an analysis of actinometric measurements of direct and diffuse solar radiation during the past 100 years. The importance of a long time series of these data is underlined, bearing in mind the need to generalize results of experimental studies on stratospheric aerosol that only cover the past 25 years. In the following chapter the actinometric data are used to assess a possible effect of stratospheric aerosol on climate; it is stated that over the past century there seems to have been a high degree of correlation between the secular evolution of air temperature near the ground and variations in the attenuation of solar radiation by aerosol concentrations in the stratosphere. It is shown that carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes over a long period (say a million years) of relatively high volcanic activity would cause a general temperature rise. A statistical analysis of the long record of air temperature near the ground, atmospheric transmissivity to solar radiation and intense volcanic eruptions is given in Chapter 8. It is found to be difficult to isolate a volcanic signal from the background noise of the temperature series, especially on a regional scale. Whereas the existence of a relationship is suggested when the reduction of solar radiation at the surface by intense volcanic eruptions is compared with the temperature curve during a period of two to three years after the eruption, no statistical studies are reported on the hypothesis that volcanic eruptions may be the cause of larger climatic variations. Chapter 9 analyses different approaches to modelling the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate (particularly temperature distribution). These confirm that the volcanic signal is normally of the same order of magnitude as the inherent noise of the climate system. When climate models are applied to the atmospheric energy budget following the eruption of El Chich6n, one obtains a rather low signal, as is corroborated by observational data. The tenth and last chapter concerns the question of monitoring stratospheric aerosol. Special attention is given to the use oflidar for this purpose, and results oflidar measurements since 1968 have been compiled. This monograph contains over 500 references, of which 40 per cent are to works in Russian and 60 per cent in other languages. It covers all the important aspects of the problem of volcanoes and climate; the matter is presented in an interesting fashion and will stimulate readers, be they specialists or students in climate physics. W. BOHME River flow modelling and forecasting. D.A. KRAIJENHOFF and J. R. MOLL (Editors). D. Reidel Publishing Company (1986). viii + 372 pages; figures and tables. Price: Dfl 140.- or $US56.- or £38.95. This book is based on a course for experienced hydrologists held at the Agricultural University of Wageningen (Netherlands) in 1983. There are 13 chapters, each written by a specialist dealing with different aspects of hydrological modelling and forecasting. The book is divided into two sections: five chapters on principles and six on applications, with introductions to each section written by G. A. Schultz. The section on principles includes: Deterministic catchment modelling, by T. O'Donnell; Theory of flood routeing, by J. C. I. Dooge; Low flow sustained by groundwater, by R. Mull; Forecasting melt water from snow-covered areas and from glacier basins, by H. Lang; Time series methods and recursive estimation in hydrological systems analysis, by P.C. Young. It will be seen that this section covers a wide range of basic types of hydrological model, although space limitations mean that the accounts are somewhat abridged. The section on applications discusses experience in establishing and operating forecasting systems in a number of countries, for the most part European. The chapters are: Case studies in real-time hydrological forecasting from the UK, by P. E. O'Connell, G. P. Brunsdon, D. W. Reed and P. G. Whitehead; River flow simulation, by J. G. Grijsen; The forecasting and warning system "' 243 and associated atmospheric effects. He deals primarily with the sources and atmospheric chemistry of trace species, and covers some of the most important issues with which scientists are grappling today. Intended mainly for students of science and engineering, it introduces the reader to topics such as photochemical smog, acid precipitation, ozone depletion, the 'greenhouse' effect and biogeochemical cycles. This edition of Energy and the Atmosphere is divided into eight chapters. Chapter 1 deals with the dynamical structure of the troposphere and stratosphere, characteristics of solar radiation and some basic aspects of chemical kinetics and photochemistry. Chapters 2 and 3 describe the thermodynamics and kinetics of combustion processes and the engineering systems that are used to convert fuel combustion into mechanical energy. These chapters give an excellent appreciation of how some of the most important pollutants are produced from these systems, and how sensitive their production rates are to process conditions. Chapters 4 through 8 are almost exclusively concerned with the chemistry and radiative effects of these and other pollutants. Chapter 4 introduces the reader to the significance of ozone in the troposphere, its key role in hydroxyl radical (OH) formation and the role of OH in balancing the atmospheric abundance of important reactive trace gases. Chapter 5 presents elements of the global carbon cycle with emphasis on carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons, and considers some aspects of hydrocarbon oxidation chemistry. An introduction to the 'greenhouse' effect is also presented. Nitrogen, sulphur and halogen cycles are discussed rather briefly in Chapter 6, but nevertheless the most important aspects of chemistry and source-sink relationships are addressed. Concepts concerning the mechanisms of acid precipitation, photochemical smog, stationary state and homogeneous and heterogeneous oxidation of sulphur and nitrogen compounds are discussed at some length in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 is devoted to the stratosphere and issues of ozone depletion. The treatment of stratospheric chemistry is not a comprehensive one, but is rather designed to introduce the reader to the wide-ranging ways in which human activities can influence the natural environment. I found Energy and the Atmosphere to be well written and concise. It covers virtually all the important topics that are of current concern. Suggestions for additional reading are provided after each chapter. The book is of unquestionable value to students interested in delving more deeply into the field of atmospheric chemistry, it should prove a useful addition to the expert's library and serve as a useful reference work for all concerned with environmental problems. Hanwant SINGH Vulkany Stratosfernyj Aerozol i Klimat Zemli (Volcanoes, stratospheric aerosol and the Earth's climate). S. S. HMELEVTSOV (Scientific Editor). Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad (1986). 256 pages; figures and tables. Price: Roubles 3. 70. This monograph is a successful effort to elucidate all aspects of the topical problem concerning the effects of volcanic eruptions on the Earth's climate, mainly on a scale from a year to about a century. It is the result of work by ten Soviet scientists, among them such well-known names as M. I. Budyko, I. L. Karol, S. I. Pivovarova, K. Ya. Vinnikov and that ofthe.Editor, S. S. Hmelevtsov. It is the first time that results of the Soviet school on the physics of climate have been presented so comprehensively. The first chapter reviews known facts about the properties of gases and aerosols ejected into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions of the explosive type. It is shown that there is no simple relationship between the intensity of the eruption (in terms of the total mass ejected) and the quantity of gaseous sulphur compounds-for example S02 (sulphur dioxide) or COS (carbonyl sulphide)-producing aerosol in the stratosphere. The next three chapters concern the stratospheric aerosol layer. Modern devices and methods for investigating stratospheric aerosol in situ or by remote sensing are described, and results of such measurements are analysed (especially the case of the eruption of El Chich6n in 1982). The processes leading to the formation of the aerosol layer (a) under undisturbed conditions, and (b) in the case of strong volcanic eruptions, are described in detail together with the modelling of those processes, which include physico-chemical transformations, condensation, coagulation and transportation. The models allow the evolution of the aerosol layer to be traced through all the different stages. Chapter 5 turns to an analysis of the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosols. The alteration of solar radiation by these aerosols exerts a major influence on the Earth's climate 242 present models. A passing glance at coupled model integrations and the groups that run large numerical models for climate studies concludes the chapter. Chapter 6 on climate sensitivity studies (31 pp) briefly reviews simulations ofpalaeoclimates, El Niiio!Southem Oscillation events, high C02 climates and nuclear war scenarios. Though the topics are sketched in the barest outline, they allow the reader to perceive the wide range of problems to which climate models can be applied, and the references point the way to deeper treatments. An optimistic outlook for future developments (7 pp) concludes the main text. Twelve appendices contain material primarily related to the technical difficulties that were glossed over earlier, but there are three FORTRAN computer programs (a barotropic forecast model, a barotropic spectral model using a fast Fourier transform and a shallow-water equation model) that a suitably-equipped student could use to illustrate some of the discussions in the text. Inevitably with a book that attempts to survey such a large field, opinions will vary as to whether the material included is the most appropriate. For what it is worth, my view is that the book would have been even more valuable had it contained fewer of the matters well treated in other standard texts (the derivation of the standard equations and techniques for solving them, for example) and more on sources of uncertainty in models (for instance the variety of approaches to representing physical processes and clouds, and a more in-depth discussion of the problems of coupling). But when so much has been achieved, these are essentially quibbles; very much a matter of personal taste and particular interest. They detract little from the overall conclusion that this is a timely publication which should find a very wide and enthusiastic readership. The volume is well produced with clearly printed illustrations, formulae and text. I noted commendably few editorial errors, and only one point that really grated: what is one to make of UKBMO (p.271) as an acronym for the British Meteorological Office? A. GILCHRIST Climate and Circulation ofthe Tropics, by Stephan HASTENRATH. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht (1985). xxii + 455 pages; figures and tables. Price: Dfi 210.- or $US79.- or £58.25. Stephan Hastenrath's book aims at providing a comprehensive cross-section of current knowledge about the circulation of the tropical atmosphere and tropical oceans, as well as regional circulation patterns and weather, and even touches on past climates and human impacts. This work is very timely since it capitalizes on the relatively recent development of scientific interest in, and rapidly growing literature on, the variability of the tropical oceans and global atmosphere system. On the other hand, the variety of the topics and the tentative nature of many published studies leads to a somewhat disjointed presentation; the author has sought comprehensiveness but thereby deprived himself of the aesthetic pleasure of following a logical train of thought. The book will provide professional readers with an overview of a wide range of subjects, covering almost all aspects of tropical meteorology, climatology and oceanography, and, more significantly, giving a very comprehensive bibliography. To students, the book gives a good view of the diversity of this vast field of knowledge as well as some good indicators to more basic information. Many diagrams reprinted from well-known sources add useful graphical information. The well-informed reader may find particularly interesting the substantial chapters on regional (atmospheric) circulation systems and interannual variability in the tropics. The final chapter on tropical palaeoclimatology gives a brief but quite perceptive review of this seldom-discussed discipline. P.M. Energy and the Atmosphere: A physical-chemical approach, by I. M. CAMPBELL (second edition). John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK (1986). x + 337 pages; 107 figures, 76 tables. Price: £34.95 (hard cover) or £13.50 (paperback). In recent years, recognition that human activities are significantly altering the chemical composition of the Earth's atmosphere has evoked both scientific interest and public concern. Central to that concern are the generation and consumption of energy. This book acknowledges the very important linkage between energy and the environment and develops the theme on scientific principles. The author's aim is to provide a broad understanding of the energy-related processes 241 Intercomparison of models of snowmelt runoff. Operational Hydrology Report No. 23. WMO-No.646 (1986). xxxii + 428 pages; numerous figures and tables. In English, with a brief summary in English, French, Russian and Spanish. Price Sfr51.-. Following an intercomparison of conceptual rainfall-runoff models that was the subject of Operational Hydrology Report No. 7 in 1975*, this snowmelt-runoff project began in 1976 and terminated in 1983 (WMO Bulletin 33 (2) p.161-165). Eleven operational models of snowmelt runoff from eight countries were tested using data sets for river catchments in six different countries. This report documents the intercomparison in detail, and for this reason the bulk of the publication consists of appendices. The main text is presented in five chapters: the aims and implementation of the project; a generalized description of models submitted for intercomparison; data sets and their application; intercomparison test results; conclusions and recommendations (of the technical conference held at Norrkoping (Sweden) in September 1983). Reviews An Introduction to Three-dimensional Climate Modelling, by Warren M. WASHINGTON and Claire L. PARKINSON. University Science Books, Mill Valley, CA, USA (1986). xiv + 422 pages; numerous figures. Price: $US28.-. Here is a welcome addition to the available literature. The title is likely to be seized upon by a large body of climatologists with varying outlooks who will expect to find a text that will excite them and will provide a proper insight into the esoteric realms of numerical global climate models. I believe that the majority will not be disappointed. The book is written by experts in the field who have a wealth of experience. It is commendably broad and up to date, with references to material published within the past two years. A particular virtue is that it encompasses atmospheric, ocean and ice models and can therefore help to bridge the gap that too often separates experts in these areas. Following a brief historical introduction, there is a physical description of the climate system (48 pp) based largely upon the observational evidence. This emphasizes the main features and the principal processes that have to be accounted for by climate simulations. It sets the scene for the following chapters in a very appropriate way. Chapter 3 (103 pp) presents the basic model equations and sets out the formal basis for climate modelling. The atmospheric equations are derived, although the authors jib at deriving the Coriolis terms properly at this point and leave the question of rotating axes for an appendix. The sigma co-ordinate system is explained before proceeding to vorticity, Rossby waves and baroclinic instability. The early global circulation models lead on to the so-called physical processes-radiation, clouds and precipitation, convection and land surface processes. The authors then turn to ocean models and derive the basic primitive equations followed by the quasi-geostrophic equations. A valuable discussion of sea-ice models ends this chapter. The next chapter (47 pp) concerns basic methods of solving model equations, starting with finite-difference techniques that culminate in the Arakawa schemes, and then going on to spectral methods. A brief discussion of difference representations in the vertical closes the exposition on discretization methods. The examples of simulations of present-day climate in Chapter 5 (49 pp) are, so far as the atmosphere is concerned, derived more or less exclusively from the NCAR Community Climate Model. For the oceans, results are shown from a wider variety of sources to illustrate the derived circulations, heat transports and surface elevations. The simulations of sea-ice models which follow are well illustrated to bring out the strengths and weaknesses of * This publication, entitled Intercomparison of conceptual models used in operational hydrological forecasting (WMO-No.429), has recently been reprinted and is available at the price ofSfr28.-. 240 Recent WMO publications Land use and agrosystem management under severe climatic conditions. Technical Note No. 184. WMO-No.633 (1986). xii + 161 pages; 20 figures, 14 tables. In English, with a brief summary in English, French, Russian and Spanish. Price: Sfr25.-. It has often been pointed out that climate is a natural resource just as are mineral deposits or the quality of the soil. It is critically important to use the combination of resources in the most rational way, taking account of the delicate interrelationship between land use and climate. The Commission for Agricultural Meteorology in 1974 established a working group on meteorological aspects of land use and agricultural management systems under severe climatic conditions, appointing Professor J. J. Burgos its chairman. This Technical Note is based upon the work of that group, ·supplemented by contributions from a few other experts, the whole having been edited by Professor Burgos and Mr G. D. V. Williams. The chapters are: introduction (11 pp.); equilibrium and extreme climatic conditions of the world's biomes and agrosystems (45 pp.); land use and agrosystem management in arid conditions (14 pp.), in semi-arid conditions (21 pp.), in extreme monsoon regions (23 pp.), in the humid tropics (24 pp.) and in cold regions (24 pp.). Workbook on numerical weather prediction for the tropics for the training of Class I and Class II meteorological personnel, prepared by T. N. KR!SHNAMURTI. WMO-No.669 (1986). ix + 355 pages; 54 figures, tables and computer codes. In English. Price: Sfr39.-. This text is intended to complement the material contained in the Compendium of meteorology for use by Class I and Class Il meteorological personnel (WMO-No.364) and is based on relevant syllabuses in the WMO Guidelines for education and training of personnel in meteorology and operational hydrology (WMO-No.258). It is based on Professor Krishnamurti's laboratory course and contains numerous FORTRAN computer software modules that he has developed over several years. The chapter headings are: finite differencing methods (29 pp.); calculation of vertical velocity (46 pp.); streamfunction, velocity potential and geopotential height from the wind field (25 pp.); objective analysis via the successive correction method (21 pp.); convection-related topics (73 pp.); planetary boundary layer (17 pp.); radiative processes (40 pp.); simple prediction models (barotropic and one-level primitive equation) (74 pp.); graphics routines (18 pp.). Manual for estimation of probable maximum precipitation. Operational Hydrology Report No. 1 (second edition). WMO-No.332 (1986). xxviii + 269 pages; 129 figures, 28 tables. In English, with a brief summary in English, French, Russian and Spanish. Price: Sfr33.-. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration physically possible over a given storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year. The first edition of this much-favoured publication appeared in 1973, and when stocks ran out the Commission for Hydrology decided that the information it contained should be brought up to date in a completely revised edition. The person responsible for its preparation was Mr J. F. Miller (USA). The chapters are: Introduction (6 pp.); estimates for mid-latitude non-orographic regions (46 pp.); estimates for mid-latitude orographic regions (43 pp.); statistical estimates (13 pp.); generalized estimates (89 pp.); estimates for tropical regions (32 pp.). The appendices include tables of precipitable water in a saturated pseudo-adiabatic atmosphere and data on the greatest-known rainfall occurrences. 239 News from the Secretariat WMO Bureau session The fifteenth session of the WMO Bureau took place in Manila from 11 to 14 February 1987 at the invitation ofthe Government ofthe Philippines. The President of WMO, Dr R. L. Kintanar, was in the chair. Also present were the First Vice-President, Professor Yu. A. Izrael; the Second Vice-President, Mr Zou Jingmeng; three regional association presidents: Mr W. Degefu (Region I), Mr T. R. Prado Fernandez (Region Ill) and Mr C. E. Berridge (Region IV); Dr R. E. Hallgren, Permanent Representative of the USA with WMO; Dr J. W. Zillman (Permanent Representative of Australia with WMO); Professor G. 0. P. Obasi, Secretary-General of WMO, and Mr R. A. de Guzman, Special Assistant to the Secretary-General. The Bureau discussed preparations for Tenth Congress and the thirty-ninth session of the Executive Council as well as other important matters relating to the Organization and its programmes. The opening meeting took place at the Manila Hotel when the participants were received by the Philippine Vice-President and Minister for Foreign Affairs, His Excellency Salvador H. Laurel. Meetings on 12 and 13 February were held on board the Philippine research vessel RPS Explorer, and the participants were able to visit Puerta Galera in Mindoro Oriental, designated a biosphere reserve under Unesco's Man and the Biosphere Programme (WMO Bulletin 35 (1) p.87). Here they were hospitably received by the local community headed by the Mayor, Mr Pablo Lineses. The final meeting on 14 February was held at Tanay, about 35 km ESE of Manila. Staff changes Mr Kanou Yamaguchi retired from his post as Chief of the Telecommunications and Monitoring Unit in the WWW Department on 28 February 1987. He had joined WMO in 1968 as a technical assistant in what was then the Networks and Telecommunications Division, and thus had served for almost 20 years in that specialized field of activity. He was promoted to scientific officer in May 1976, and became head of the unit in August 1985. We wish Mr Yamaguchi a long and happy retirement. Long service certificate Mrs Denise Bouazria, senior telephone/telex operator in the Administration Department, completed 20 years of service with WMO on 1 March 1987. A ward of long service certificates on 6 March 1987. Left to right: the Assistant Secretary-Gen eral; Mrs D. Bouazria; the Secretary-General; Mr R. Chacun; the De puty Secretary-General Photo: WMO/Bianco 238 Jacob Bjerknes symposium (announcement) The Jacob Bjerknes Symposium on Air-Sea Interactions will be held in Los Angeles (USA) from 31 January to 5 February 1988. The principal topics will be: interannual variability of the tropical atmosphere and teleconnections between the tropics and higher latitudes; interannual variability in each of the three tropical oceans; air-sea interactions in the tropics; predictability of El Nino and of the atmospheric response to sea-surface temperature anomalies. Further information may be obtained by writing to the chairman of the international organizing committee: Professor Carlos R. Mechoso, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA (Tel. 213-825-3057). CALENDAR OF COMING EVENTS (Sessions will be held in Geneva, Switzerland, unless otherwise stated) 1987 World Meteorological Organization 15 August- Thirteenth training course on background air pollution 12 September measurements; Budapest, Hungary 17 - 21August Advisory Working Group of the Commission for Climatology, 7th session 24 - 26 August NAOS Board, 12th session 26 October- Regional training seminar for national instructors (Regions I and VI); 6 November Niamey, Niger 7 - 11 December Technical conference on medium- and long-range forecasting needs and capabilities in Latin America and the Caribbean; Brasilia, Brazil 1988 25 January- Commission for Basic Systems, ninth session 5 February 29 January- Technical conference on operational weather forecasting 1 February 1987 Other organizations 9-22 August Nineteenth IUGG General Assembly; Vancouver, Canada 13 - 30 October Fourth international training course on remote-sensing applications to operational agrometeorology and hydrology (UN/WMO/FAO/ESA) 1988 31 January- Jacob Bjerknes Symposium on Air-sea Interactions 5 February (AMS/UCLA/WMO); Los Angeles, USA 29 May - 3 June Sixth World Congress on Water Resources; Ottawa, Canada (IWRA) 237 Professor Marion Molga Prize in agrometeorology Before his death in 1980, Marion Molga was professor of agronomy at the University of Warsaw. His wife, Mrs Zofia Pieslak-Molga, was chief of the agrometeorological section of the national Hydrometeorological Service of Poland. They were both present at the second session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology in 1962, and Mrs Pieslak served as vice-president of the Commission from 1962 to 1967. Mrs Pieslak has established, through the Polish Geophysical Society, an international prize in memory of her husband which is awarded every two years to the author (or co-authors) of an outstanding paper on some advanced aspect of agrometeorology. The paper should present results of a pr,1.ctical nature or set out new theories permitting further advances in agricultural production. So far the prize has been awarded on two occasions. Anyone wishing to have more information about conditions pertaining to the Professor Marion Molga Prize should write to the Polish Geophysical Society, ul. Smolenskiego 16, 01-698 Warsaw, Poland. Byrd fellowship The foundation honouring the American polar explorer and aviator Richard E. Byrd and his wife Marie Byrd has provided funds for a one-year fellowship to support research at the post-doctorate level on any problems in the context of the polar regions (Arctic and/or Antarctica). Candidates should have received their doctorate degree within five years of the date of selection. The annual stipend is $US24 000, plus a travel allowance of $US3000. For further information please write to: The Byrd Fellowship- Committee, Institute of Polar Studies, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA. Call for documentation on reference/standard atmosphere models A sub-committee of the Atmospheric Environment Standards Committee of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) is seeking information on model atmospheres for the Earth that are currently in use, including those generated under private auspices as well as by governmental and international groups. The sub-committee plans to publish an AIAA Standards Information Document giving a brief description and source reference for each model. Therefore model developers and users are kindly requested to contact one of the following committee members to ensure that all available models are included: Dr R. C. Whitten, MS 245-3, NASA-Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035; tel. corn: (415)694-5498 or FTS: 464-5498. Dr W. W. Vaughan, RI B-18, Research Institute, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899; tel: (205)895-6479. Appropriate credits will be given. Please send the information by 15 October 1987. Conference on Alpine Meteorology (announcement) Tl~e twentieth international conference on alpine meteorology will be held at Sestola, Modena (Italy) from 18 to 25 September 1988. Papers are invited on all aspects of pure and applied alpine meteorology. Further information may be obtained from: The Italian Meteorological Service headquarters, Palazzo Civilta del Lavoro, Quadrato della Con cordia 7, I -00144 Rome, Italy; telex: 611088 ITA VRM I. 236 Hurricane surveillance radar for the Dominican Republic and Haiti A ten-centimetre meteorological radar is being constructed in the Federal Republic of Germany for delivery and installation at Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic) in the last quarter of 1987 (WMO Bulletin 35 (4) p.385). The WMO expert in meteorological training, Mr A. Behlau (Federal Republic of Germany), took up his post in Port-au-Prince (Haiti) on 1 February 1987 and is conducting courses for local personnel in meteorological observations, the calibration, repair and maintenance of instruments and computerized data analysis and processing. Construction of the tower for the radar is progressing satisfactorily. Staff members are betng trained in the interpretation of radar imagery and in the maintenance and repair of radar equipment. Arrangements are also being made to establish a system for transmitting the radar images from Santo Domingo to Port-au-Prince. Very good co-operation on technical aspects exists between the Commission of European Communities which finances the project, its co-ordinator in Port-au-Prince and the WMO Technical Co-operation Department. VOLUNTARY CO-OPERATION PROGRAMME Meeting of major donor countries An informal planning meeting of representatives of seven major VCP donor countries was held in Geneva from 16 to 18 February 1987 under the chairmanship of Mr D. Foster (USA). The meeting reviewed VCP projects approved for circulation but not yet supported by any Member, as well as co-ordinated projects of a regional nature not yet fully supported. Pledges on behalf of the major donor countries were considered to represent a substantial contribution towards improving meteorological facilities needed by Members. The support includes instruments for surface observations, spare parts and consumables for upper-air soundings, single-side-band transceivers, data-collection platforms used for telecommunications, and computer system packages (mainly for climatological data processing). In all, support for 52 projects was either confirmed or indicated as possible by the countries represented. This is encouraging and shows that the traditional spirit of mutual co-operation still exists among the Members of WMO. During the discussions the need was expressed for more information on assistance provided by Members on a bilateral basis or through other assistance programmes. It was suggested that the agenda of future meetings include briefings on UNDP projects (especially those that can be co-ordinated with VCP support) and on bilateral assistance. It was stressed that there was also a need for a WMO strategic plan for technical co-operation in the fields of meteorology and operational hydrology. News and notes Norbert Gerbier Prize In memory of the late president of the WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, Mr Norbert Gerbier, a prize of FF2000 is offered annually for an original scientific study on the influence of meteorology on one of the sciences of the universe, nature and man. No candidate will be excluded on account of age or nationality. Information on how to apply and submit papers may be obtained from: Le Directeur de la Meteorologie Nationale, 77 rue de Sevres, F-92106 Boulogne-Billancourt Cedex, France. 235 Proposals for the second phase of the project, to be entitled 'Agrometeorology for food production', have been finalized and submitted for approval by the Government and UNDP. This three-year programme is intended to consolidate the achievements in the first phase, and help the Government attain self-sufficiency in food production. Emphasis has been placed increasingly on the application of agrometeorology in this context. Inter-country programmes Regional HOMS project in the Asia and Pacific region The project 'Regional development and application ofHOMS' (WMO Bulletin 34 (3) p.251) will have been completed by mid-1987. Since January 1986, a number of consultancy missions have been carried out in the region, and further training workshops arranged, to wit: At Christchurch (New Zealand) in March on the use of microcomputers for hydrological data archiving (seven participants). A similar workshop was held at Suva (Fiji) in May 1987 (six participants); At Brussels (Belgium) in September on the use of the HOMS component 'storage and file management system' and related computer programs (seven participants); At Pyongyang (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) in October on hydrological data processing and flood-forecasting techniques (16 participants); At Bangkok (Thailand) in November to transfer technical knowledge on methods and instruments for hydrological measurements in rivers subject to tidal effects (19 participants); At Nanjing (China) in November to examine the linear perturbation model for forecasting river flow for flood warning and reservoir system management (32 participants); At Bandung (Indonesia) in December to examine mathematical models used in operational hydrology (30 participants). An evaluation mission was carried out and its findings and recommendations submitted to UNDP with a view to re-examining the possibility of allocating funds for a second phase of the project. Bandung (Indonesia), December 1986- Participants and lecturers in the training workshop on the application of mathematical models in operational hydrology and water resources planning, held at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering Photo:IHE 234 VACANCIES IN WMO TECHNICAL CO-OPERATION PROGRAMMES (As of 5 May 1987) Country Title ofpost Date of Duration Language commencement needed Country projects Burma Expert in hydro- January 1988 12 months English logical forecasting Ethiopia Expert in data January 1988 12 months English processing Sudan Expert in January 1988 24 months* English agrometeorology Yemen Expert in data January 1988 12 months English processing Zimbabwe (a) Expert in June 1988 24 months* English data processing (b) Expert in elec- June 1988 44 months*t English tronic engineering Inter-country projects English-speaking Caribbean Barbados Expert in data As soon as 12 months English processing possible Hydroniger Niger (a) Expert in hydro- January 1988 24 months*t French logical forecasting (b) Expert in As soon as 24 months*t French data processing possible t Subject to UNDP and/or governmental approval * Initial contract of one year Further information may be obtained on written request to the Secretary-General, WMO, Geneva. Sierra Leone The first phase of the project to strengthen the Meteorological Service which began in 1981 (WMO Bulletin 34 (4) p.346) is now coming to an end. It included the establishment of four new synoptic stations, the renovation and supply of tools for the maintenance workshop, staff training, strengthening of the climatological unit and completion of a three-storey building to house the forecasting and climatological units. A 15-metre steel tower to support the antenna for a weather radar purchased by the Government was also erected. The senior expert, Mr M. Baradas (Philippines), left the project in February 1987. 233 The three-year project provides for a hydrologist as senior technical adviser in addition to a number of consultancy missions in specialized fields of operational hydrology. It includes the supply and installation of a rainfall and water-level telemetry system, a microcomputer for data processing, and training aids. There will also be a number of fellowships in such fields as flood-forecasting techniques, hydrological modelling, hydrometeorology, telecommunications and telemetry. Implementation started in April 1986 with a consultancy mission in telemetering by Mr Chong Hua Cheong (Malaysia). The senior technical adviser is expected to join the project shortly, and the placement of fellowship candidates is under way. Jamaica With the assistance of the WMO hydrologist, Dr M. Molina (Peru), and a United Nations Volunteer, Mr M. Arana (Bolivia), the Government continues implementing the project for flood-plain mapping (WMO Bulletin 34 (2) p.l58; 35 (2) p.183). It has met with such success that the decision was made to expand the scope of the project to the whole country (taking into consideration the fact that much of the baseline rainfall and streamflow data already exist for the remaining area). The institutional linkages · between the various counterpart agencies involved have therefore been formalized and strengthened to ensure proper co-ordination and timely delivery of project inputs. Another important component of the project is education of the public at all levels of the community to promote better responsiveness to the threat of floods. Qatar The project 'Development of meteorological services, Phase II' (WMO Bulletin 35 (1) p.82) continues to make good progress, especially as regards the training of local staff. So far, 26 nationals have completed courses for Class IV meteorological personnel, and the retraining of 15 others in mathematics and physics as well as the training of two in the operation of computers were completed satisfactorily by the WMO expert, Mr M. Elgabarti (Egypt). Mr M. Ayadi (Tunisia) was appointed chief technical adviser of the project in November 1986 in replacement ofDr H. Mi:irth (Austria), who had left the project at the end of July. · A tripartite review meeting in December 1986 discussed future assistance required to further upgrade the Department of Meteorology. An extension of the project for one more year was recommended to allow time for the authorities to consider recommendations by the WMO consultant, Dr P. S. Pant (India), with regard to training and the staffing of technical posts. Saudi Arabia Progress continues in the project 'National meteorological and environmental centre' (WMO Bulletin 34 (4) p.346). The national forecasting centre at Jeddah is fully operational, providing weather forecasts for aviation, marine and other sectors, as well as processing meteorological data and disseminating information to neighbouring countries. A refresher course in basic mathematics for different categories of personnel was completed by the WMO training expert, Dr J. D. Lee (Trinidad and Tobago), who also helped with training courses at the Faculty of Meteorology at King Abdul Aziz University and in research work undertaken by staff of the Meteorological Environmental Protection Administration. Dr Lee left the project in December 1986, but Mr 0. E. Osman (Sudan), the senior expert, will remain until the end of March 1988. 232 short-term consultancy missions to carry out preparatory work in the experimental area of lOO km2 around Ouagadougou in collaboration with local personnel. Rainfall data from 126 pluviometric stations have been processed and compared with satellite data, and a good preliminary correlation established between both types of data. Mr J.-P. Triboulet (Canada) completed his mission as WMO expert in hydrology in October 1986. Proposals for the third phase of the project, to cover the period 1987-1991, have been submitted to the Government and UNDP for approval. Central African Republic Hydrological activities under the UNDP/WMO project aimed at organizing and developing the agrometeorological and hydrological components of the National Meteorological Service have made satisfactory progress since the assignment in May 1985 ofMr L. Konvalinka (Hungary) as WMO expert in hydrology (WMO Bulletin 34 (2) p.l5 5). Six nationals have been or are being trained abroad in meteorology, agrometeorology, climatology, hydrology and instrumentation. Hydrological equipment has been provided and 30 hydrometric stations installed. Moreover, hydrological data and information are being processed and provided to users and bulletins issued. Agrometeorological activities started in February 1987 with the assignment of Mr D. Doucoure (Mali) as WMO expert. Sites for agrometeorological stations have been identified and they are now being installed. Ecuador A new UNDP/WMO project is aimed at strengthening the National Meteorological and Hydrological Institute so that it can offer better data and information in support of food production, water resources, hydroelectric power, heavy industry, transport and tourism. The two-year project provides for six short-term consultants in various fields, 12 fellowships abroad and the installation and operation of instruments and equipment worth $US340 000. Haiti Field activities under the project to strengthen the National Meteorological Service (WMO Bulletin 35 (3) p.271) were completed at the end of 1986. Five synoptic stations were in operation, local observers and forecasters had been trained and instrument workshop facilities installed. The events of early 1986 did have some negative effects in that a few observers, a forecaster and a Class II meteorologist trained at the University of Costa Rica through a project fellowship left the Service, and one of the synoptic stations was destroyed and had to be rehabilitated. Nevertheless, the project has been successful in as much as there is now a national consciousness about the importance of meteorological data and information, and Haiti is actively participating in several WMO programmes and events. Indonesia A proposed project entitled 'Real-time data-collection system for operational hydrology' that had been prepared by the Indonesian Institute of Hydraulic Engineering in 1984 and reviewed by WMO was finally approved on 31 December 1986. The purpose is to help the Institute achieve self-sufficiency in all aspects of hydrological data collection in real-time mode. An institutional, technical and manpower framework will be set in place for transferring, adapting and applying hydrological technology. This will enhance the Institute's ability to apply modern technology to water resources assessment and management. 231 Like previous seminars of this nature, the object is to promote adequate standards of training and uniformity of instruction given to meteorological personnel, and to acquaint participants with recent scientific developments in meteorology and related fields. The seminar will be conducted in English and French (simultaneous interpretation). Participants should be Class I meteorologists, although senior Class 11 personnel would also derive benefit from attending. Postgraduate course in environmental protection (Lausanne, Switzerland) The Federal Polytechnic School at Lausanne has arranged a course on environmental protection leading to a Maftrise de Specialisation (equivalent to a Master's degree). It will be conducted in French from January 1988 to May 1989 and will comprise six months of instruction and eight months for research work. The latest date for enrollment is 30 September 1987. Information may be obtained from Mr Laurent Krayenbuhl, Institut du genie de l'environnement, Ecole polytechnique federate de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Technical co-operation UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Country programmes Brazil One of the priority objectives of the Government is to irrigate a total of 3.06 million hectares ofland (compared with 1.2 million at present) by the year 1990. It is hoped that the production of grain would thereby be raised by 7. 7 million tonnes per annum and vegetables by 1.7 million tonnes. To attain this goal, information is needed about the natural resources of the specific areas, especially the soils, climate and readily available water resources. On the basis of existing meteorological and hydrological data, studies will be conducted on agrometeorological input to the planning and management of irrigated areas. This, together with a programme to train personnel, forms the objective of a new UNDP/WMO project, 'Agrometeorological and hydrological support to the national irrigation programme'. The WMO chief technical adviser is Mr I. Noe-Dobrea (Israel), who took up his duties in Brasilia on 1 May 1987. The three-year project includes provision for six high-level consultants to be employed for short periods and for the acquisition and installation of equipment for about 150 new stations. Burkina Faso Activities in the second phase of the UNDP/WMO project for strengthening agrometeorological and hydrological services (WMO Bulletin 34 (2) p.l55) were expanded in 1986 to cover the use of meteorological satellite data for rainfall estimation. For this purpose, Drs J. P. Carbonnel and P. Hubert (France) went on three 230 agronomists. They are at two levels: M aitrise (twelve months' duration, commencing in September), and Certi.ficat (seven months' duration, commencing in December). The courses are conducted in French, and they provide training on the interrelationship between agricultural production and climatological and meteorological phenomena. Agrometeorology course (Bogota, Colombia) The sixth international course for training technical personnel in agrometeorology will take place at the Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Land Improvement (HIMAT) in Bogota from 13 August to 2 October 1987. This course for Class Ill personnel is held every second year, and its purpose is to train agrometeorological technicians in applying meteorology to agriculture, and thereby enhance the capabilities of national Meteorologicat Services to satisfy the growing demands for support to agriculture. The course will be conducted in Spanish, and will include both theoretical and practical components. South-east Asia meteorology and weather forecasting (Hong Kong) For several years the Royal Observatory Hong Kong has organized its own comprehensive staff training programme at various levels. Some of the in-house training courses (which are conducted in English) are also open to staff members of other Meteorological Services. Three such courses are offered each year: A 21-week course designed to introduce forecasters to the fundamentals of dynamie, physical and synoptic meteorology to enable them to perform the duties of a Class 11 meteorologist. The next course will start in January 1988. A 13-week course on the meteorology of south-eastern Asia introduces forecasters to the characteristics of the weather of that area, with particular reference to Hong Kong. Participants should be Class I or Class II personnel. An initial training course of 15 weeks for newly-recruited Class Ill meteorological personnel. Postgraduate course in agricultural meteorology (Bet Dagan, Israel) From 25 October to 17 December 1987, the thirteenth postgraduate course in agricultural meteorology will take place at Bet Dagan (Israel). It will be in English, and includes the following major topics: micrometeorology, applied statistics, agrometeorology, plant-climate relations, agricultural planning and climate, soil moisture, topoclimatology and agricultural phenology. The course will also include laboratory work, exercises and field studies. Participants should have a B.Sc. in mathematics, physics, meteorology, agronomy or geography, plus at least one year's professional experience. Training seminar for instructors (Niamey, Niger) At its thirty-eighth session in 1986, the Executive Council agreed that a regional training seminar for national instructors should be held in Africa during 1987. Accordingly, at the invitation of the Permanent Representative ofNiger with WMO, it will take place at the WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centre and the AGRHYMET Centre in Niamey from 26 October to 6 November 1987. 229 A final plenary session chaired by Mr A. L. Alusa, Director of the Meteorological Service and Permanent Representative of Kenya with WMO, discussed and drew up several recommendations to foster and improve meteorological research activities in subjects relevant to the region. The proceedings of this highly successful conference are expected to be published shortly. Second international agrometeorology course in the USSR The urgent problem of providing enough food for the growing population of this planet challenges scientists and specialists to improve the efficiency of agricultural production in certain parts of the world. In solving this problem, a rational and practical exploitation of weather and climate information has a ·significant role to play. In recent years some special forecasting functions such as assessing climate and weather conditions in the context of agricultural requirements have been considerably developed, both in national Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services and in WMO. Advances in agrometeorology in the Soviet Union have also been given wide practical application. Actively supporting the work of WMO, the USSR has assisted developing countries in training qualified specialists in agrometeorology and other fields. Each year there are about 200 foreign students following courses in Soviet hydrometeorological institutes and technical colleges, and, with a view to expanding further the study programme for workers from developing countries, it was decided to arrange a special course on currerit problems in agrometeorology. This took place in Alma-Ata from 6 to 30 October 1986 and attracted participants from 22 countries in all parts of the globe. The aim of the course was to acquaint agrometeorologists and agronomists with recent progress in agricultural meteorology, including such fields as agroclimatic forecasting, agroclimatic resources and their regional features, hydrological problems of irrigated lands and methods of preventing desertification. A similar course had been held at Odessa in August 1984 (WMO Bulletin 34 (2) p.l42) when there had been participants from 23 countries from all six of the WMO Regions. The urgent need to prevent desertification makes it necessary to give particular attention to the climatic features of arid regions, hence the choice of Alma-Ata as the venue for this second course. It took place with support from UNEP and WMO through the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment and its regional institutions: the Kazakh SSR Department of Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment, the All-Union Research Institute for Agricultural Meteorology, the Kazakh Regional Research Institute and also through the International Project Centre of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology. The course comprised lectures, seminars, consultations with high-level scientists and specialists, and practical sessions with visits to agricultural units in the Kazakh SSR. Those who participated will now be able to apply the knowledge they acquired to solving the pressing problems of how to provide the best possible meteorological services to agriculture, taking into account the particular characteristics of their different countries. S. S. HODKIN Forthcoming training events Courses in agrometeorology (Arlon, Belgium) The Fondation universitaire luxembourgeoise in Arlon (Belgium) continues to offer each year specialized training courses in agrometeorology for meteorologists and 228 Forty-three professionals (agronomic and forestry engineers, meteorologists and agrometeorologists specializing in irrigation, or entomologists, for example) attended the course, who came from ten countries in Latin America. The instructors came from Chile, Israel and Peru, and they maintained a steady working pace, alternating theory with practical exercises and arranging public lectures and round-table discussions. The main topics included climate/crop relationships, the applicability of agrometeorological models, yields, agroclimatic requirements of major crops in semi-arid regions, topoclimatology and its implications for agrometeorology, the influence of climate on production at the farm and the incidence of pests · and diseases. The successful conclusion of the course marked the end of that particular UNDP/WMO project in Peru. Meteorological research in eastern and southern Africa At the invitation of the Government of Kenya, the first technical conference on meteorological research in eastern and southern Africa took place in Nairobi from 6 to 9 January 1987 on the premises of the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research (the WMO Regional Meteorological Training Centre). The conference was formally opened by the Minister for Transport and Communications, H.E. Mr A. K. Magagu. The proceedings were conducted under the guidance of the chairman, Dr John K. Ng'ang'a, Head of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Nairobi, and eo-chairman, Mr Stephen J. M. Njoroge, Principal of the IMTR. The Secretary-General of WMO was represented by Mr G. V. Necco, Director of the Education and Training Department. The conference brought together more than 130 participants, and several excellent invited lectures were presented by scientists from Africa and other Regions. The sessions covered a wide variety of subjects related to the meteorology of eastern and southern Africa, including climate, rainfall, cloud and precipitation, agro- and hydrometeorology and weather forecasting. The audience was enthusiastic and there was a considerable degree of involvement during the discussions. Nairobi, January 1987- Participants in the technical conference on meteoro logical research in eastern and southern Africa Photo: Kenya Meteorological Department 227 Developments in the analysis of groundwater flow systems. G. B. ENGELEN and G. P. JONES (Editors). IAHS Publication No. 163. xiii + 356 pages. Price: $US35.-. (Report drafted by a working group of the IAHS International Commission on Groundwater.) Copies of these publications may be ordered from any of the following addresses: Office of the Treasurer IAHS, Bureau des Publications de l'UGGI, IAHS Press, (attn: Meredith Compton), 39 ter rue Gay Lussac, Institute of Hydrology, 2000 Florida Avenue NW, F-75005 Paris, Wallingford, Washington, DC 20009, France. Oxfordshire OXIO 8BB USA. United Kingdom. Education and training Recent events Class III meteorological personnel A training course for Class Ill meteorological personnel organized by the Meteorological Service of Guatemala terminated successfully on 12 November 1986. The four-month course, based on the experience of two previous ones, was conducted in Spanish and its programme included two main parts: general basic training, and specialized training in agrometeorology, aeronautical meteorology and data processing. Of the 22 students who completed the course, nine came from the Meteorological Services of Bolivia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama. Agrometeorology of semi-arid zones (Regions IIIIIV) The Peruvian National Meteorological and Hydrological Service organized a course in Lima from 24 November to 12 December 1986, under the auspices ofUNDP and the Israeli Government and within the framework of a UNDP/WMO technical co-operation project. The main purpose was to provide instruction permitting the planning and management of crops to be adapted rationally to semi-arid-zone climatic conditions. Lima, December 1986- The UNDP/WMO pro ject manager, Mr I. Noe Dobrea, speaks at the closing session of the re gional course on the agrometeorology of semi arid zones 226 conceived so as to provide participants with an understanding of the specialized fields necessary for assessing and managing the type of data base necessary for water-resource projects. Those who followed the course should now have the expertise necessary to organize and analyse an integrated data base in their individual countries. It is planned to repeat this course in Nairobi towards the end of 1987. Participants in the Nairo bi training course on the assessment and manage ment of a data base for water-resource projects Photo: Kenya Meteorological De partment Recent IAHS publications Land subsidence. A. I. JOHNSON, Laura CARBOGNIN and L. UBERTINI (Editors). IAHS Publication No. 151. xiii + 939 pages. Price: $US45.-. (Proceedings of an international symposium at Venice in March 1984.) Modelling snowmelt-induced processes. E. M. MORRIS (Editor). IAHS Publication No. 155. x + 380 pages. Price: $US40.-. (Thirty-one papers presented at a symposium during the IAHS Second Scientific Assembly; Budapest, July 1986.) Conjunctive water use: Understanding and managing surface water-groundwater interactions. S. M. GORELICK (Editor). IAHS Publication No. 156. x + 548 pages. Price: $US48.-. (Over 50 papers presented at a symposium during the IAHS Second Scientific Assembly; Budapest, July 1986.) Monitoring to detect changes in water quality series. David LERNER (Editor). IAHS Publication No. 157. x + 336 pages. Price: $US40.-. (Thirty-two papers presented at a symposium during the IAHS Second Scientific Assembly; Budapest, July 1986.) Integrated design of hydrological networks. Marshall E. Moss (Editor). IAHS Publication No. 158. x + 415 pages. Price: $US40.-. (Thirty-six papers presented at a symposium during the IAHS Second Scientific Assembly; Budapest, July 1986.) Drainage basin sediment delivery. Richard F. HADLEY (Editor). IAHS Publication No. 159. x + 487 pages. Price: $US45.-. (Thirty-seven papers presented during a symposium at Albuquerque; August 1985.) Hydrological applications of space technology. A. Ivan JOHNSON (Editor). IAHS Publication No. 160. xii + 488 pages. Price: $US45.-. (Over 50 papers presented during an international workshop at Cocoa Beach; August 1985.) 225 three Members' Hydrological Services were not represented), and all but one of the appointed rapporteurs were able to attend. It was a very successful meeting. Early on in the proceedings, working group members presented reports on current hydrological activities in their countries, reports which were very useful in the subsequent deliberations. The seven tasks assigned to the working group by the Regional Association were discussed, work plans modified where necessary, procedures defined and scheduled, and programme outputs (in the form of interim or final reports) depicted. A day was set aside for very profitable tours of the Hydrologic Instrumentation Facility of the US Geological Survey and the eo-located NOAA National Weather Service forecast office at Bay St. Louis, and of the Lower Mississippi forecast centre at Slidell. WCP-Water activities in Region IV consist in identifying case studies on climate variability and its impact on water resources. A data base oflong-term meteorological and hydrological station records will be assembled, and techniques devised for analysing them. The important task of ensuring effective technology transfer in hydrological procedures will be continued. Finally, the group identified a number of regional problems for consideration in planning future activities in the field of hydrology and water resources. Recent events Conference in Khartoum An international conference on water resources needs and planning in drought-prone areas was arranged in Khartoum from 6 to 12 December 1986 by the Sudan Engineering Society and the International Association for Hydraulic Research, in co-operation with Unesco and UNDP. There were more than 100 participants from over 20 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and North America. Among the themes tabled for discussion were meteorological, hydrological and hydrogeological data collection and utilization, hydraulic engineering and conveyance systems in drought-prone areas. Some 80 papers were presented focusing on new research trends and experience of innovative practices; they reflected an immense interest on the part of researchers and practising professionals in the subject areas. Several recommendations were adopted relating to the development of networks for the collection of data on water resources, the completion of a hydrogeological map of Africa, the establishment of operational forecasting systems in river basins to assist water management in Africa, the training of personnel for operating and managing water-resource systems, the development of hydraulic research in Africa, and arranging future similar conferences and seminars. Course in Nairobi A training course on the assessment and management of a data base for water-resource projects was organized by WMO and the Institute for Meteorological Training and Research in Nairobi, with the assistance of the University of Nairobi and the Kenyan Ministry of Water Development. It was held in Nairobi from 13 October to 10 December 1986 within the framework of the proposed UNDP/WMO regional project 'Assistance to drought-stricken eastern and southern African countries in the fields of agrometeorology and hydrology', and was supported by UNDP, UNEP the World Bank, the OPEC Fund and the Governments of Belgium, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Eighteen participants from 14 African countries followed the course, which consisted of closely integrated lectures, practical exercises and field training. It was 224 As briefly reported elsewhere in this issue (page 234), a HOMS workshop on storage and management of hydrological data took place in Brussels from 12 to 25 September 1986, sponsored by the HNRC for Belgium and the Free University of Brussels. The participants, who came from countries in Regions II, Ill and V, were given the opportunity of operating the Belgian hydrological data-management system on individual computer terminals. Czechoslovakia joined Greece, Hungary, Poland and Yugoslavia in implementing a UNDP-funded project for the regional development of HOMS in support of energy production. A project meeting in Athens from 3 to 7 November 1986 selected a set of HOMS components that would be transferred and adapted during the following months. The project's technical committee was to meet again in Prague at the end of March 1987. A HOMS workshop on water quality, attended by 20 participants from Regions Ill and IV, was held in Panama from 2 to 5 December 1986. Lectures and demonstrations were given by Dr Adrian Demayo of the Water Quality Branch of Environment Canada and by experts from the host country. In Region 11 a planning meeting on HOMS activities took place at Pokhara (Nepal) from 30 November to 3 December 1986. It was opened by the Permanent Representative of Nepal with WMO, Dr S. P. Adhikary. The meeting reviewed progress in regional HOMS activities, and agreed on a number of projects to be carried out by Members concerned in the near future. Transfer of hydrological technology in the Asia and Pacific region is particularly active, as witness the related training courses and workshops (see page 234). Moreover, two experts from the Hungarian Research Centre for Water Resources Development (VITUKI) spent a month in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to support the transfer of computer-based hydrological data-processing and flood-forecasting systems. As noted elsewhere, a two-week workshop on this subject was organized in Pyongyang from 17 to 29 October 1986. Hydrological activities in Region IV WMO Members in North and Central America and the Caribbean have continued their active involvement in implementing the Hydrology and Water Resources Programme at the national level. By January 1987, 13 Member countries in the Region had nominated a total of 19 experts as members of CHy, of whom five had been designated rapporteurs for specific studies. Sixteen Member countries designated hydrological advisers to their respective permanent representatives; these advisers fulfil a valuable role in permitting national Hydrological Services to have direct technical and policy input to the planning and implementation ofWMO programmes related to water. Five other Member countries in the Region have combined meteorological and hydrological services. Eleven countries had already established HNRCs to facilitate their contribution to, and utilization of technology available through HOMS. These HNRCs have provided 104 of the components in the HOMS Reference Manual, requested 137 components from other HNRCs, and supplied 365 requested components. The Region has done much to ensure the success of HOMS. Regional Association working group meeting In addition to the active participation by Region IV Member countries in the work of CRy, the Regional Association's Working Group on Hydrology is conducting a number of surveys and studies of particular regional interest. Their implementation was reviewed during the fourth session of the group held in New Orleans (USA) from 19 to 23 January 1987. Nineteen participants were present from 15 Member countries (only 223 opened, international organizations had the opportunity to exchange views on requirements arising from developments in the support to international oceanographic programmes. As far as meteorology was concerned, it was pointed out that an increased requirement for conjoint use of atmospheric and oceanographic data was arising from the TOGA project and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), and that there would thus be a greater demand for collaboration as regards interdisciplinary data. The committee recommended certain fields in which collaboration between IOC and WMO was most important. IGOSSIIODE data flow - Among the many developments within IGOSS, the following were of particular interest: The role of the Specialized Oceanographic Centres (SOC) and Responsible National Oceanographic Data Centres (RNODC) in the rGOSS Data-processing and Services System (IDPSS) (WMO Bulletin 34 (2) p.147). The terms of reference of SOCs and RNODCs were modified to meet new requirements. Specific guidelines were developed for the timely submission of rGOSS data to the RNODCs and for providing the data to secondary users. Data sets would be available from SOCs within two months of receipt of observations and from RNODCs not later than one month after they had received these data sets; Archiving and exchange of rGOSS data and preparation of rGOSS products. A guide to rGOSS data archives and exchange (BATHY and TESAC) has been issued by the rOC secretariat. WDC-A has accepted responsibility for publicizing the availability of existing IGOSS data sets in RNODCs. Management and exchange ofdata from new types of marine and shore-based sensors Waves A measure of co-ordination exists between roe, WMO and RNODC-Waves (United Kingdom). This centre has developed procedures for receiving, processing and storing all low-bit-rate wave data products and for preparing some data products such as time series for small regions. The necessary hardware should be installed at the centre well in advance of the launch of new-generation satellites (1987-1995). Development of marine information management - A particular point of interest was co-ordination between IOC's data-referral system (MEDI) and WMO's INFOCLIMA (see page 212). It was agreed that further co-ordination could be achieved through a mutual exchange of information in the respective catalogues. Hydrology and water resources A report on the WMO!Unesco conference on hydrology and scientific bases of water resources management (Geneva, 16-20 March 1987) will be found on page 203. Hydrological Operational Multipurpose Sub-programme Within the framework of global activities, a group of representatives of HOMS National Reference Centres (HNRCs) met in Geneva from 8 to 10 December 1986 to discuss hydrological models in HOMS. They examined a reclassification scheme for HOMS components in the relevant section that will be reflected in the HOMS Reference Manual in the near future. 222 the acting Director-General of the Malaysian Meteorological Service, Mr P. Markandan, and by the representative of the WMO Secretary-General. The participants numbered 23, and they came from eleven Member countries of Regions 11 and V. Seven participants were connected with a wide spectrum of user groups associated with oil production, coastal engineering, shipping, environmental monitoring and naval operations. From among the ten invited lecturers, Drs Lim Joo Tick (Malaysia) and P. E. Dexter (WMO) were respectively designated director and eo-director of the seminar. Kuala Lumpur, December 1986 - Participants in the seminar on marine meteorological services for Regions II and V Photo: Malaysian Meteorological Service Within the framework of the broad objectives already formulated for these seminars, the programme concentrated on examining emerging trends in the provision of marine meteorological services, as well as the specific requirements of users in the Regions concerned. After the lecturers' presentations, the participants exchanged views and experience relating to the topics under discussion. The user groups were encouraged to interact with the other participants and the lecturers, explaining their specific requirements for marine meteorological support. It was heartening to see the high degree of mutual interaction maintained throughout the seminar. The participants gained a better comprehension of the major users' requirements, and consequently saw more clearly the problems involved in meeting them. After the seminar they returned to their respective Meteorological Services far better equipped to assist in developing an effective marine meteorological programme. LIM Joo Tick International oceanographic data exchange The twelfth session of the IOC Working Committee on International Oceanographic Data Exchange (lODE) took place in Moscow from 10 to 17 December 1986, attended by 74 participants from 25 countries and 18 international and other organizations. At a special consultative meeting the day before the session 221 the IMO sub-committee has in general supported the INMARSAT Enhanced Group Call (EGC) system as the means of providing these broadcasts, but at this session it was considered premature to recommend a mandatory EGC facility on ships pending results of sea trials of the system in March 1987. As part of its evaluation of the proposed HF system, the IMO sub-committee invited Member countries to provide information about the amount of traffic in marine safety broadcasts to areas not covered (or expected to be covered) by the NAVAREA system. Since WMO Members provide about 80 per cent of the data in marine safety information broadcasts, many national Meteorological Services may be asked about their marine weather bulletins, especially those to the high seas. The decision of IMO as regards the system to be adopted internationally will depend upon results of the HF traffic density survey and conclusions gleaned from the EGC sea trials, when technical capabilities and cost estimates will be determined. Inter-Secretariat Committee on Scientific Programmes relating to Oceanography The twenty-fifth session ofiCSPRO (WMO Bulletin 35 (3) p.263) was held at the FAO headquarters in Rome from 3 to 5 February 1987. The five member organizations were represented, namely the United Nations, FAO, IMO, Unesco and WMO. As is customary, the chairman was a representative of the host organization. The Secretary of IOC and representatives of agencies reported on their activities, with special reference to those which would benefit from having IOC as a joint specialized mechanism, or to proposed collaborative activities of mutual interest. In the case ofWMO, the consolidation of years of co-operative efforts (particularly through IGOSS) was accelerating thanks to ships-of-opportunity, drifting buoys and the rapidly expanding programme on climatic change and the oceans. Useful discussions took place on marine information management, on marine-related proposals being submitted to United Nations bodies, and on other matters of interest to the members, such as the formulation of the marine science components of the organizations' medium-term plans. The other major item concerned preparations for the Joint Oceanographic Assembly to be held at Acapulco (Mexico) in August 1988. As in the past, it is being arranged in close collaboration between IOC, SCOR and the members of ICSPRO. A logistics committee for the Assembly was re-established to co-ordinate the efforts of the member agencies and other interested bodies, in terms of both financial support and organizational aspects. Finally, all participants emphasized the increasing awareness in developing countries of the role played by the ocean and its resources in socio-economic development. Efforts by States to attain their national goals are strengthened by virtue of co-operation and joint action through the international bodies and ICSPRO. Seminar on marine meteorological services The series of WMO regional seminars on marine meteorological services embarked upon its second round with that held in Kuala Lumpur from 8 to 12 December 1986. The Malaysian Government attached great importance to the seminar since the country is experiencing a surge in the demand for marine meteorological services to support rapidly expanding coastal and off-shore activities. The seminar was formally opened by H.E. Datuk Amar Stephen K. T. Yong, Minister for Science, Technology and Environment. Participants were also welcomed by 220 (e) Include plot-size considerations about the length of data run, number of treatments, number of replications, nature of climatic and biological parameters to be measured, soil variability and outside environmental factors; (f) Limit the number of treatments if extensive environmental observations are to be collected; (g) Complement on-station trials by on-farm trials; (h) Measure biological responses not only in laboratory or scientific terms but also in terms of acceptability to farmers; Collect as a minimum the following daily climatic data: maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and evaporation; also, if possible, estimates of wind speed and direction, solar radiation, soil and plant temperature and soil and plant water balance; Compile and publish: (a) An inventory of data analysis methods; (b) An inventory of appropriate instrumentation available; (c) An inventory of available models used in agroforestry with comparative studies of each; (d) A study on the agrometeorology of trees as a component in agroforestry systems; (e) An inventory and annotated bibliography on relevant wind-break studies and interventions; (f) Guidelines on using agroforestry techniques to reduce or prevent soil degradation; Training in the assessment, proper use and maintenance of equipment should be arranged in developing countries jointly by all organizations concerned, together with training in analysing the quality of the data obtained with this equipment. These selected recommendations reflect the large number of issues discussed and their wide scope. The need for workshops such as this was reaffirmed in order to review the state of the art of applying our meteorological discipline to the further development and improvement of farming systems, and through this to aid food and wood production and conserve the natural environment. T. DARNHOFER, D. RIJKS and C. STIGTER Meteorology and ocean affairs Radio communications The IMO Sub-committee on Radio Communications held its thirty-second session in London from 1 to 5 December 1986. WMO was represented by Captain G. V. Mackie, marine superintendent of the British Meteorological Office. The work of this group is important to WMO because of the responsibilities of many Members for collecting ships' meteorological observations and disseminating weather forecasts and warnings for the marine sector; both these functions depend upon marine telecommunications. Forty-five IMO Member countries and 15 international bodies were represented at the session. The topic of most interest to WMO was the sub-committee's decision to consider a draft recommendation on the possibility of establishing an automatic and reliable HF receiving system for the promulgation of marine safety information (weather forecasts and warnings, NAVAREA warnings and search and rescue information). For some years 219 agroforestry systems in relation to microclimate, was subdivided under wind, rainfall and water balance, light and radiation. In the fourth session, on environmental monitoring in agroforestry, the distinction was made between experimental approaches, assessment and data analysis and environmental measurements. Five working groups were set up to discuss possible practical guidelines and recommendations. The chairman of each reported his group's findings to a plenary meeting on the morning of the last day, and this was followed by a synthesis and some overall recommendations. About 70 participants and observers from more than 30 countries were present during at least one of the different sessions, and more than 50 scientists or research workers took part in the working groups. Participants in the workshop on the application of meteorology to agroforestry systems visited the ICRAF field station at Machakos (Kenya) Photo: ICRAF The 25 recommendations emanating from the workshop were grouped under one of the headings: general; information requirements; methods and techniques in agroforestry; data; application of research; dissemination of information; feedback of technical and economic value; training. Here follow a few salient excerpts. The multidisciplinary nature of agroforestry must be taken into account in all developments of methods and all collection of data, and maximum benefit should be drawn from contributions by the different disciplines involved. For all research and for all applications of results of that research, thorough consideration must be given to the different space and time scales, and socio-economic aspects of agroforestry interventions must not be ignored; Further quantification should be made of existing techniques of microclimate management and manipulation in agroforestry to aid the formulation of viable systems and practices; The design of all experiments should: (a) Take into account the results of preliminary model tests; (b) Aim at both measuring environmental conditions and testing solutions; (c) Consider the advantages of 'systematic' and 'traditional' designs, especially in preliminary screening; (d) Develop new designs for use in agroforestry; 218 A reorientation of research efforts, some possible areas being: Site-specific analyses of soil conditions, water budget dynamics and water conservation methods; Adaptation of traditional systems to facilitate the transfer of knowledge and improvements; Accessibility of remote-sensing applications to the least-developed countries (which include most of the drought-stricken ones); Strengthening of biotechnology in order to produce drought-resistant varieties and species; Sustained monitoring, using the results to provide feedback and facilitate evaluation; Educating and instilling awareness at the local, specialist and decision-making levels; Taking account of climate history: drought-response planning and its incorporation into economic development planning (noting that many of the problems that occur during long dry periods in arid and semi-arid regions have their roots in practices taking place during a run of relatively wet years). Among subjects discussed were co-operation at national and regional levels, practical experience in the field, forestry development and appropriate reafforestation, and intensive rain-fed agriculture (which incorporates erosion control, agroforestry, improved fertilizer application procedures and cropping and pastoral systems). The panel's report was considered by the UN Advisory Committee on Science and Technology for Development in February 1987 which formulated its recommendations to the Intergovernmental Committee scheduled to hold its ninth session in June 1987. Agroforestry Workshop on the application of meteorology Agroforestry is a collective name for land-use systems in which trees are deliberately grown on the same land-management unit as agricultural crops or pasture. There is both an ecological and an economic interaction between the arboreal, arable and livestock components, and agroforestry implies the arrangement of such components in space and time. Ecological interactions refer to effects such as shading, wind protection and soil (and soil-moisture) conservation by trees and their products, whereas the multipurpose economic use of trees refers to products such as nutrients, fodder, food, wood-fuel and timber. Some agroforestry systems and practices are traditional, others may be planned thanks to our growing ecological and economic understanding of farming systems, but all need to be managed. Meteorological knowledge in its widest sense (meteorology and climatology at the macro-, meso- and microscale) has started to play a role in planning and managing these 'systems and practices, but this application of meteorology has never been the object of more systematic consideration. This fact led the WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology to propose a technical meeting on the subject, which was duly organized as a workshop in Nairobi by the International Council for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), WMO and UNEP. There were four sessions, during which 50 papers were presented. The first, on agroforestry issues in relation to macroclimate, dealt with environmental information, component response, productivity, stability and soils. The second was on agroforestry and climate, with country-specific examples. The third, on component interactions in 217 status and potential benefit of BAPMoN, including the role of participating Member countries in it. The second BAPMoN Newsletter contains results of preliminary assessments of BAPMoN data which suggest: (a) A world-vvide decrease in the sulphur content of precipitation from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s; (b) An accelerating increase in the global concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide; (c) A decrease in the nitrogen content of precipitation in Europe since 1978/79. The Newsletter also gives some condensed information on the results of the BAPMoN laboratory performance surveys for the period 1981-1985 inclusive. Copies are available from the WMO Secretariat. Agricultural meteorology and desertification (A report on the ninth session of the WMO Commission for Agricultural Meteorology will be found on page 198). Agrometeorology A medium-term mission took place in Rwanda during August and September 1986 to appraise the current status of agrometeorology and recommend and initiate necessary action to develop and strengthen agrometeorological activities in the country. Some on-the-job training was given. · Desertification Panel of experts meets in the USSR An ad hoc panel of experts on the application of science and technology to the study, prevention, monitoring and combating of drought and desertification met at Ashkhabad (USSR) from 13 to 17 January 1987. The meeting was arranged by the United Nations Centre for Science and Technology for Development, in collaboration with the Ashkhabad Institute of Deserts and the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology. There were 16 participants from ten countries, four representatives of UN agencies and 12 observers from the host country. The purpose of the meeting was to clarify and highlight those aspects of drought and desertification that for various reasons are not normally considered by decision-makers. The experts specified the action that should be taken at national and regional levels, and presented in outline ways and means by which affected countries could formulate and strengthen policies, plans and programmes to combat the effects of drought and the process of desertification. The panel was of the view that previous plans of action to combat desertification were rather too global in nature and that a major new approach was required placing emphasis on site-specific natural and human factors. Science and technology should reorient priorities by providing the necessary expertise and tools at all levels of society. The priorities identified were as follows: The involvement oflocal people and a vertical integration in decision-making; A small-scale approach in agricultural development; 216 extract meaningful information from multiple sources of complementary but incomplete observations. Of particular benefit from GEWEX will be the development of time-dependent representations and predictive models of the global transport and ground storage ofwater, and the validation of such models against the observed annual and pluriannual evolution of water resources and river discharge in several selected continental-scale areas. Weather prediction research Short- and medium-range prediction Recent reports Dr N. F. Veltishchev and his colleagues from the USSR activity centre have prepared a technical report entitled 'Development of mesoscale models for weather elements prediction'. Professor D. Radinovic from the Yugoslav activity centre has written a technical report 'Mediterranean cyclones and their. influence on weather and climate'. Both reports have been issued in the programme report series. Tropical meteorology research Recent programme reports Consideration is being given to assisting Members with limited computer facilities to develop and make use of adequate tropical numerical models. At the recommendation of the steering committee on limited-area weather prediction modelling in the tropics (chairman Professor T. N. Krishnamurti), arrangements were made for Mr Yap Kok Seng (Malaysia) to prepare a technical report on this subject. He worked at the Florida State University during 1986 and his report, entitled 'Documentation on two simple tropical models', has been issued in the programme report series. It contains detailed descriptions for programing a non-divergent barotropic model and a single-level primitive-equation model, and should be useful to anyone in a tropical country who has started work on numerical weather prediction. A report based on papers presented at the WMO regional workshop on the Asian summer monsoon, held in New Delhi in November 1985 (WMO Bulletin 35 (4) p.366), has also been issued and sent to all Members in the regions concerned. Weather modification research Recent programme report Programme report No. 34, entitled 'Synopsis of the Precipitation Enhancement Project- 1985', has recently been issued and is available on request. It chronicles the experience of WMO in organizing and managing PEP up to, and including, 1985. The report was prepared primarily as a concise account of the project for sponsors and participants, and also to provide anyone contemplating a scientific effort in weather modification with insight into the rationale and decisions made as PEP unfolded. Environmental pollution Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network (BAPMoN) A brochure entitled Man and the composition of the atmosphere has recently been produced with support from UNEP. It describes the historical roots, objectives, current 215 Cloud-radiative interactions and infra-red absorbers- Climate models and their reliability in predicting climatic changes due to increasing greenhouse gases; remotely-sensed data for studying oceanic cloud/radiation feedbacks; detection of climatic variations due to infra-red absorbing gases; trace gases and the global climate. The wide range of mechanisms presented and discussed highlighted the complexity of climatic variations and induced greater appreciation of the interactive nature of the climate system. Whereas our understanding of the mechanisms and processes involved in climate system variations had improved substantially over the last five to ten years, it was also clearly borne out that considerably more research and diagnostic studies were required to advance the science. It was generally felt that the conference had been a valuable forum for the cross-fertilization of ideas amongst scientists. Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) A workshop at Columbia, Maryland (USA) from 19 to 23 January 1987, developed the concept of a Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) which is intended to investigate many aspects of atmospheric thermodynamics, water transport and land-surface processes that are not being tackled by existing WWW systems. The technological innovations required for GEWEX would lead to significant progress in developing advanced operational observing systems for weather and climate prediction. GEWEX is therefore the next natural step in the WCRP (constituting the equivalent of the Global Weather Experiment in GARP); it will promote the development of new observing techniques and test them on a global scale, to the benefit of the whole meteorological community and the further enhancement of the WWW. The workshop conceived GEWEX as being a comprehensive, internationally co-ordinated scientific endeavour that would contribute to the study of global changes, reaching out from the physical side of the problem to understand the role of water in the planetary system. The advances in measuring basic atmospheric variables envisaged for GEWEX are also a prerequisite for determining and predicting the atmospheric transport of water, evaporation from the Earth's surface and rainfall. Such advances are especially needed in the tropical zone. It is foreseen that GEWEX will involve: A build-up phase for technological development (instruments, space vehicles, data handling) and preliminary modelling studies; An operational phase, planned for the period 1995-2000, when the new supporting space missions are scheduled to be launched; A scientific exploitation phase, to begin with exploratory research even before the operational phase, and continuing for many years thereafter. · GEWEX will necessitate some improvements to existing operational observational and data-management systems and the deployment of certain new observing facilities, mostly remote-sensing instruments on the next generation of spacecraft in low Earth orbit, to be launched in the 1995-2000 period. A central task will be to focus the attention of the scientific community, and bring adequate resources to bear, on synergistic analyses of multiple data streams flowing from a composite ground and space-based observing system; the purpose being to depict relatively subtle processes that cannot be measured directly. This task will entail an extensive use of data interpolation and assimilation using three-dimensional models of the global atmosphere and the Earth's surface, or various other inverse modelling techniques, in order to 214 World Climate Research Programme Mechanisms of climatic variations A conference on mechanisms of interannual and longer-term climatic variations was held at the University of Melbourne (Australia) from 8 to 12 December 1986. Sponsored by the Australian Committee for the World Climate Research Programme and the IAMAP Commission for Climatology, it was attended by over 120 scientists, 70 of whom were from outside Australia. The aim of the conference was to concentrate on specific factors causing climatic change and identify the inherent linkages in each process. Each session commenced with a presentation by an invited speaker followed by contributed papers and a general discussion. The latter proved to be particularly informative. Session topics and papers covered the following: External influences - The relative roles and climatic effects of external forcing factors such as 'greenhouse' gases, solar radiation variability, volcanic activity or ozone fluctuations; relationships between changes in solar radiation due to aerosols and climate; possible 'nuclear winter' effects and implications for climate. Ocean feedback processes - The role of the equatorial west-Pacific mixed layer in El Niilo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) feedback processes; the effect of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric general circulation and global general circulation models (GCM); Quasi-biennial Oscillation modulation of Hadley cells and equatorial SST changes as a possible driver of the Southern Oscillation; sea-level changes and ENSO; sea-ice thermal inertia feedback (stronger than albedo feedback over the oceans); climatic change and the deep ocean circulation; ENSO and interannual variability. El Niiio/Southern Oscillation - ENSO models; time scales of ENSO fluctuations; equilibrium states of the combined atmosphere/ocean system; global and regional influence of ENSO in climatic fluctuations; annual and interannual variability in the exchange of latent. heat between the atmosphere and oceans; ENSO and global teleconnections; ENSO/monsoon relationships. Ice sheets- Numerical models of the variability and response of ice sheets and climate relationships with changes in the Earth's orbit and radiation; causes and simulation of northern hemisphere changes during the last glaciation; climatic cycles (lOO 000 years); energy-balance model studies in palaeoclimatology; ice sheets and sea-level fluctuations. Anthropogenic influences - Monitoring and modelling of land-use changes; observational and GCM results pertaining to C02-induced precipitation changes; global and hemispheric warming; Arctic air pollution. Natural surface changes - Surface changes and climatic variations; vegetation/ albedo/radiation/climate feedback; sea-ice/albedo feedback and climatic change; soil moisture re-cycling, sea-ice and atmospheric circulation interactions; regional antecedent predictors of surface temperature; tropical/extra tropical teleconnections; variations in heat and moisture budgets and their influence on the onset of the monsoons; monsoon variability; response of land-surface hydrology to initial soil moisture anomalies. Non-linear mechanisms - Theoretical mechanisms for long-period climatic variations (chaos, intransitivity and the sensitivity of the climate system to external influences); interannual variability (its characteristics, prediction, GCM simulations); non-linear influences; atmospheric processes, with the energy cascade from turbulence to planetary scales and its application to climate prediction. Instabilities- Low-frequency variability, index cycles, 50-day oscillations; effect of changes in the basic state (due, for example, to interannual variability) on short-term instability models; instabilities in atmosphere/ocean coupled models; heat storage in the equatorial Pacific and its role in triggering ENSO. 213 ensuring that all Meteorological Services that need them have CLICOM (or an equivalent system) within five years seems to be attainable. INFOCLIMA There was a substantial input from Members to INFOCLIMA during 1985 and 1986. The new Catalogue of climate system data sets released in April 1987 contains updated and expanded summary descriptions of digital and published data sets (WMO Bulletin 36 (2) p.l22). For some categories of data (for instance hydrology or special international projects or experiments), information is still being collected. This may well be the last time that the complete catalogue is updated all at once; consideration is being given to issuing individual sections as and when a certain amount of new information becomes available. Also being published is the first volume (for Region Ill) of summarized information and statistics on climatological and radiation station networks. Volumes for other Regions will follow once the relevant information is available and processed. On request, the INFOCLIMA computerized referral information data base can also be made available on magnetic tape. Climate System Monitoring The CSM monthly bulletins and biennial scientific reviews are designed to provide synthesized information on global climatic changes to Meteorological Services, international organizations and the scientific community in general. Since the inception of the project in July 1984, monthly bulletins have been issued regularly; in 1986 they included several special reports with advisories on the possible occurrence of an El Niiio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. The ·article on page 176 depicts the progression of monitored ENSO parameters and characteristics of the global climate system during 1986. A second comprehensive scientific review of the global climate system, with expanded coverage to include topics of current interest such as 'greenhouse' gases and the relationship between sea-surface temperature and Sahelian rainfall, was released in April 1987. Data rescue A data-rescue project proposal for Region I (Africa) was drawn up at the WMO Secretariat and circulated to Members of the Association in January 1987. The objectives of the project are as follows: To rescue and process all data on microfilm; To equip all countries in the Region with microfilming units, readers and printers; To prepare a basic data sub-set for research purposes at a resolution often stations per 250 000 km2; To train personnel in data rescue and microfilming procedures. The implementation strategy, spread over three overlapping phases, and budget estimates are included. Belgium has already allocated funds to start work on the project in 1987, and has agreed to host the International Data Rescue Co-ordination Centre at the Royal Meteorological Institute in Brussels. France has also shown interest in supporting the project. However, additional donor or international support will be required if it is to be fully implemented over the next six years. 212 addition, periods of unsuitable conditions for measurement were used for training participants in calculating the comparison results so that they could calibrate the radiation instruments in their respective countries. World Climate Applications Programme Energy Short-term expert missions Short-term missions by experts were arranged to Brunei, Nicaragua and Singapore. All three were aimed at assisting the national Meteorological Services in measuring solar radiation, in handling the data and in developing meteorology as applied to harnessing solar energy. Project concluded in Uruguay Solar and wind energy are extremely dependent upon the behaviour of the atmosphere and cannot be exploited without due consideration of meteorology. A good example of international collaboration in wind- and solar-energy meteorology can be found in a technical co-operation project in Uruguay which has just been completed, the first UNDP/WMO field project to have been devoted to these new and renewable energy sources ( WMO Bulletin 34 (3) p.250; 35 (3) p.273). Designed to follow up one of the early short-term expert missions arranged within the framework of the WCAP, its general purpose was to enhance the capability of the National Meteorological Service to provide wind- and solar-energy decision-makers with adequate meteorological information promptly and in a suitable form. This required (a) improvements to the meteorological observing network, especially as regards wind and sunshine, (b) a computerized climatological data bank, (c) the training of specialized staff, and (d) the preparation and publication of monthly and annual maps of solar- and wind-energy resources. In four years (from 1983 to 1986) those objectives were almost completely attained, thanks to close and fruitful collaboration between the international experts (who carried out seven missions to Uruguay) and their local counterparts (who carried out most of the experts' recommended technical tasks. It is considered that the Uruguayan Meteorological Service now possesses both the technical resources and expertise needed to ensure that.meteorological and climatological knowledge and data are fully taken into account when planning projects to harness solar and wind energy. World Climate Data Programme · CLICOM Implementation of the CLICOM project has attracted substantial international and bilateral support. As of March 1987, comprehensive CLICOM packages had been installed in seven countries and funds were in the process of being allocated for 35 more. Approximately 22 further countries had submitted requests to UNDP or VCP for support and awaited a response from potential donors. Three regional training seminars on climate data management and user services have so far been held (in Barbados, Indonesia and Panama) and a fourth is planned for Africa towards the end of 1987 if funds are available. As a second phase of the project, a set of CLICOM application modules will be developed for use in countries with CLICOM or equivalent systems. The target of 211 Technical conference on operational weather forecasting (announcement) A technical conference on operational weather forecasting is to be held in conjunction with the ninth session of the Commission for Basic Systems (Geneva, 25 January to 5 February 1988). It will take place over the three days 29 and 30 January and 1 February. The purpose is to provide members of the Commission with up-to-date information concerning forecasting techniques, methods and means, concentrating on practical aspects. The conference may perhaps be accompanied by demonstrations of equipment and systems in current use. The conference director will be Dr G. K. Weiss. There will be five sessions, each covering a different topic, comprising a keynote lecture, two supplementary lectures and possibly one or two additional short lectures. In the main the lectures will be given by specially invited speakers, but the Organizing Committee would be glad to consider offers to prepare and present any of the additional short lectures (up to ten minutes' presentation time). The tentative programme for the conference has already been circulated to the permanent representatives of Members of WMO and to members of CBS. Instruments and methods of observation Pyrheliometer comparison in South America The first WMO regional pyrheliometer comparison for Region Ill was conducted from 19 November to 5 December 1986 at the WMO Regional Radiation Centre in Buenos Aires in accordance with recommendations of the ninth session of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation. Nine Members from the Region were represented: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela. Twenty participants compared five Angstrom pyrheliometers, six absolute radiometers and six pyranometers. Also present was an instrument of the World Standard Group (WSG) from the WMO World Radiation Centre at Davos (Switzerland). The final results of the comparison were reported with reference to the world radiometric reference using the WSG instrument as transfer. For the final evaluation, a total of 480 measurements were selected and approved by the international organizing committee which met at the conclusion of the comparison. In Buenos Aires, November 1986- Participants in the Region III pyrheliometer comparison at the Regional Radiation Centre Photo: S. Klemm 210 the Federal Republic of Germany, Finland and France. ASAP provides for a full radiosonde observation to be made twice a day whilst a ship is at sea. The data are automatically processed and transmitted via a satellite. Denmark and the United Kingdom plan to install ASAP systems during the course of 1987, and by 1988 a total of 16 are expected to be available for the North Atlantic. Four ASAP units are already operated by Canada and the USA over the North Pacific. The OWSE-NA activities inaugurated on 1 January 1987 were principally systematic evaluations of the receipt of data and their quality. Meteorological centres such as those at Bracknell, Darmstadt, De Bilt, Paris and ECMWF have developed special computer programs to monitor the receipt of data from OWSE-NA systems and study their impact on operational analyses. During selected periods, detailed studies will examine the impact of different observing system configurations not only on analyses but on forecasts as well. Partial results of initial studies are expected to be available at the third session of the OWSE-NA Committee in August 1987. Specialized studies are also being organized by individual Members to determine the impact that changes in the observing system might have on the services they provide to users. One example is the production of sea-wave forecasts for the marine sector. The housing of an Auto mated Shipboard Aerologi cal Programme unit of the Canadian Environment Ser vice installed on the deck of a vessel plying regularly be tween Vancouver and Japan The balloon launcher is be ing elevated prior to release. The vertical antenna in the centre is for the Omega windfinding system and the one on the right is for data transmission to a Geosta tionary Operational Envi ronmental Satellite Photos: Environment Canada Africa The need for an OWSE-Africa was endorsed by the Executive Council at its thirty-eighth session in 1986 and preliminary planning has started in the Region with support from the WMO Secretariat. The broad concepts were agreed to during a "meeting at Dakar in March 1987. 209 activities on 31 March 1986 leaving the ASDAR development contract unfulfilled. The new contract provides not only for the completion of development work but also for the production of an initial 13 operational ASDAR units. Although there has been a delay of over a year, the programme is now moving rapidly towards an operational installation of systems as part of the GOS. The Consortium for ASDAR Development is composed of ten WMO Members: Australia, Canada, Federal Republic of Germany, Nethedands, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and USA (Switzerland is also actively participating in the procurement programme). The Consortium carried out the negotiations in consultation with the Secretary-General, who has agreed to act as official purchaser on its behalf. Initially the operational ASDAR will be certified for use on B-747 and DC-10 aircraft, although it is also suitable for use on the L-1 011 and the later series of wide-bodied aircraft such as the Airbus-310. The first certification on a DC-10 of United Kingdom registration is expected late in 1987, followed by USA certifications on B-747 and DC-10 aircraft in 1988. The initial units should be in operation during the first half of 1988, and all 13 are expected to be fully operational by mid-1989. A prototype ASDAR was first flown in -1979, and 17 were used for the Global Weather Experiment. Five are still in service and regularly provide data from (for example) QANTAS flights to and from Australia. They are expected to be maintained in use for about another year to overlap with the operational deployment. The operational ASDAR unit is a substantial improvement over the prototype. Observations will still be taken once every seven minutes at altitude and reported once an hour through the geostationary meteorological satellites, but sophisticated data processing in the operational model will make the data (especially temperature) more accurate and more representative than at present. Spot winds are currently reported, whereas the operational system will report averages over several kilometres, and also record significant wind changes between the routine observations and formulate a special peak wind report as appropriate. This will enable jet streams to be identified. Turbulence will be reported in four categories. Finally, during ascent and descent the operational ASDAR will formulate observations based on pressure-altitude rather than time changes so that profiles may be obtained on either the ascending or descending phases of flight. These will comprise at least ten and even as many as 20 observations of temperature, pressure-altitude, wind, turbulence, position and time. Although it is unfortunate that the ASDAR programme has been delayed, the Members supporting it are convinced that it will make a major contribution to the WWW, and have agreed to purchase at least 23 more units for deployment after 1989. There is substantial interest in having a fleet of 50 or more ASDAR-equipped aircraft by 1991. Further information on technical specifications and costs of ASDAR units is available from the WMO Secretariat. Operational WWW Systems Evaluation North Atlantic According to schedule, OWSE-NA (WMO Bulletin 35 (4) pp.357-360) formally started on 1 January 1987 and will continue up to 31 December 1988. The build-up of observing systems began in 1986 and will continue through 1987; an example of improvements to the GOS over the. North Atlantic is the implementation of six Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme (ASAP) systems on ships belonging to 208 Current and planned activities IAEA and WMO experts have collaborated in defining the meteorological and radiological data that are to be supplied to affected States and WMO, as well as the data needed for monitoring and verification purposes and as input to transport/dispersion/deposition models. Possible requirements by national decision-making authorities for output products from the above models have likewise been outlined in close collaboration with IAEA experts. A co-ordinated radiation monitoring programme is currently being developed, and it will be implemented through the inter-agency co-ordinating committee. Action has started with a view to using the GTS for distributing the information required under the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident. As a matter of urgency, CBS is studying the additional WWW procedures, codes and formats that would be needed for the exchange of the extra meteorological and real-time radiological data in the event of a nuclear accident, and, if internationally agreed, as a routine function. Studies will also be carried out to reach agreement on a global network of centres that are willing to prepare well-defined and specialized transport/dispersion/ deposition-model output products and make them available on the GTS in the event of an accident. A joint IAEA/WMO project on the validation and intercomparison of transport/dispersion/deposition models is being undertaken in 1987/88. The purpose is to examine existing models and select those features that appear to give the best predictions. The assembling of meteorological and radiological data bases (including data pertaining to the Chernobyl accident) is in progress. Hydrological aspects of nuclear pollution in intermitional bodies of water have been outlined, and the potential role ofWMO in promoting international preparedness in the context of operational hydrology has been formulated. Conclusion The spontaneous international reaction to the Chernobyl accident has shown that collaborative agreements across national frontiers can be reached in a very short time, and efficient working arrangements set up among international agencies and institutions. Of course, major efforts will continue with the object of preventing similar accidents in the future, but it is nonetheless essential to have in place the infrastructure to mitigate the consequences of an accident, however small the risk. Recent experience has shown that in this WMO and its Members have an important and central role to play. WMO programme activities World Weather Watch Global Observing System Aircraft-to-satellite data relay (ASDAR) On 19 February 1987, the Secretary-General notified Marconi Defense Systems Ltd (United Kingdom) that the contract for ASDAR was being transferred to them. It may be recalled that, due to a corporate reorganization, the original contractor ceased 207 and radiological protection activities, adopted two conventions: the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident, and the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency. Both have entered into force. The role of WMO The Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident is particularly relevant to the responsibilities of national Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Services and to WMO programmes. It stipulates that States which are, or may be, physically affected must be notified of any accident and relevant information made available promptly. Meteorological and hydrological data and forecasts needed to predict transboundary flows of radioactive material are part of the information to be provided to contact points designated by IAEA. The thirty-eighth session of the WMO Executive Council in June 1986 took note of IAEA's initiative and readily agreed that WMO should provide full support to joint inter-agency activities in this connection. The Council stressed in particular the important role of the World Weather Watch in providing safety-related services. An ad-hoc group of experts was set up to consider the roles of Meteorological and operational Hydrological Services in connection with an early notification and monitoring system in the event of accidentally-released radioactive or other hazardous substances being transported across national boundaries. The report of the first meeting of this group has been distributed to permanent representatives of WMO Members (WWW Technical Report No. 4). International co-operation Since the Executive Council's session, and following the adoption of the IAEA conventions, WMO has been involved in intense international planning activities, particularly regarding implementation of the Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident. Several meetings of experts were held, as well as frequent joint meetings and consultations with representatives ofiAEA. WMO was also represented at IAEA conferences. Furthermore, an inter-agency co-ordination committee was established representing, inter alia, FAO, IAEA, ILO, UNEP, Unesco, WHO and WMO. It will deal with matters related to the convention. Meteorological and radiological information required Harmful effects from an accidental release of radioactive material into the atmosphere or into large bodies of water can be reduced or mitigated by taking suitable preventive and remedial action. The decision by appropriate governmental authorities as to which countermeasures to take will depend upon the nature of the accident and upon, inter alia, the atmospheric conditions governing (a) the movement of the radioactive material in the atmosphere, and (b) the concentration and deposition of radionuclides. For the purpose of countermeasures, during the early phase of an accident meteorological and radiological data are needed promptly from the site of the emission. In the next (intermediate) phase, these data are required from a large area around the site of the accident for tracking the movement and evolution of the radioactive clouds, monitoring the actual level of radioactivity and calculating (or estimating) the future movement, concentration and deposition of the radioactive materials. In the later (recovery) phase, post-accident evaluations and studies have to be carried out. 206 understanding and applying technology included in HOMS, making use, where appropriate, of financial resources from UNDP and VCP. Reviewing Unesco's activities related to water resources, many statements were made on the positive impacts of the IHP in solving national water problems. Delegates emphasized, in particular, the value of Unesco-sponsored postgraduate hydrology courses and ad-hoc regional specialized courses, and expressed general satisfaction with the IHP publications programme. They also pointed out the value of the IHP in exchanging information on the hydrological sciences between industrialized and developing countries and among the industrialized countries themselves. As regards contributions by WMO and Unesco to the implementation of the Mar del Plata action plan already mentioned, note was taken of the important international project aimed at assisting countries to evaluate their water-resource , assessment activities. A handbook for such an evaluation ready for publication in English, French and Spanish was submitted to the conference, with the information that drafts of it had been tested in pilot projects undertaken by several countries, and that the methodology described in it had been reviewed at four regional meetings. Now that the revised methodology was available in Water-resource assessment activities - Handbook for national evaluation, the conference recommended that the project concentrate on its practical application. The conference proposed to the WMO Congress that the classification of CHy be re-examined, because having regard to the Commission's responsibility for a basic scientific and technical field closely related to (but separate from) meteorology, it was felt that it would be preferable for CHy to be classified a 'basic' commission. Certain of the conference's recommendations were quite specific, others were of a more general nature. All were submitted for consideration by Tenth Congress in May 1987. CONVENTION ON EARL V NOTIFICATION OF A NUCLEAR ACCIDENT METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS On 26 April 1986 at 01.23 an accident occurred at the fourth unit of Chernobyl nuclear power station in the Ukraine, Soviet Union, which resulted in the destruction of the reactor core and part of the building in which it was housed. Large amounts of the radioactive materials in the reactor core were released from the building into the surrounding environment. (Extract from the summary report of the post-accident review meeting on the Chemobyl accident; IAEA Safety Series No. 75-INSAG-1, 1986.) Introduction The accident at Chernobyl in April 1986 was the most serious ever to have occurred at a nuclear power plant. It had grave consequences in the USSR and aroused public concern the world over, especially in Europe. Much of the radioactive material released was carried away by the winds in the atmosphere in the form of gases and particles, some being transported across the boundary of the Soviet Union into other countries. In September 1986 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), taking note of the report of the post-accident review meeting and demands for better nuclear safety 205 again in Paris. The third, which happened to mark the tenth anniversary of the United Nations Water Conference at Mar del Plata (Argentina), was hosted by WMO and took place at the International Conference Centre in Geneva from 16 to 20 March 1987. More than 150 participants, representing 64 countries and 15 governmental and non-governmental international bodies, were welcomed by the Secretary-General of WMO, Professor G. 0. P. Obasi, and the Director-General of Unesco, Mr A.-M. M'Bow. Mr J. Slater (Canada) was elected conference chairman. The participants were first informed about the main results of WMO's and Unesco's programmes in hydrology and water resources during the period 1981 to 1986, focusing in particular on a review of activities under the WMO Hydrology and Water Resources Programme (including the OHP) and under the second and third phases of the IHP ofUnesco. Special attention was paid to the current status of the' Mar del Plata action plan' (WMO Bulletin 26 (3) p.192) There was general agreement that the goals of Unesco's IHP-II and IHP-III had been achieved, and that WMO's activities on hydrology and water resources had proved highly successful. Turning towards the future, the conference indicated areas in which it believed greater attention would be needed in the years ahead. The world's available freshwater resources were seen as coming under increasing pressure from a variety of socio-economic demands. It was recognized that, if the current trends continued, by the year 2000 half the world's population would be urban, with adverse consequences ensuing due to alteration of the water balance, urban drainage and flooding problems. Since the balance between supply and demand was becoming more and more difficult to maintain in many parts of the globe, the conference saw an urgent need to develop and strengthen Hydrological Services in these areas, notably with regard to observing networks, forecasting systems and the provision of hydrological information for an efficient management of water resources. Emphasizing the importance of closing the gap between developing and developed countries, the conference made particular reference to the OHP and HOMS. Both had an important role to play in promoting modern technology and in improving the capability of countries to avail themselves of this technology. HOMS was considered to be the principal avenue for technology transfer under the OHP, although its effectiveness would be greatly enhanced through co-ordination with related activities such as training courses and the publication of guidance material. The conference had before it the draft Second WMO Long-term Plan for the decade 1988-1997. Delegates congratulated WMO on its farsighted policy in developing such a plan; once it had been adopted by Congress it would provide a sound basis for national, regional and international co-operation in those many areas of hydrology and water resources that fell within WMO's sphere of responsibility. In this connection, the conference laid particular stress on hydrological forecasting, since WMO was the only United Nations agency specifically entrusted with responsibility in that field. It was recommended that the scope of activities include forecasting river levels for the burpose of navigation, low-flow forecasting and reservoir-inflow forecasting. The conference also recommended that WMO implement eight specific projects with the aim of meeting the long-term objectives ofthe OHP. They comprise: hydrological services and networks; collection and transmission of hydrological data; hydrological modelling and forecasting; primary processing and storage of hydrological data; secondary processing and application of hydrological data; and three proposals related to the development of HOMS. Taking into account the considerable experience already gained through the operation of HOMS, the conference recommended that training be continued in 204 It was agreed that the Regional Office for Africa should be permanently located in Africa, and the session requested the Secretary-General to consult with the Government of Burundi concerning hosting the Office at Bujumbura on a permanent basis. Flexibility was called for in arrangements for sessions of the Association so that they could be hosted by countries within the Region, and, if no invitation from a Member were received, adequate budgetary provision should be available for the session to be held at the location of the Regional Office. The Association noted with appreciation an offer by Egypt to host the tenth session. Finally, the session re-elected Mr W. Degefu (Ethiopia) and Mr H. Trabelsi (Tunisia) respectively as president and vice-president of the Regional Association for Africa. HYDROLOGY AND SCIENTIFIC BASES OF WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT WMO/UNESCO CONFERENCE, GENEVA, MARCH 1987 WMO has a long and very close working relationship with Unesco in matters relating to water. WMO's Operational Hydrology Programme (OHP) and Unesco's International Hydrological Programme (IHP) are co-ordinated at various levels during their planning and implementation. The mechanism for this was formally instituted in 1972 with the signing of a working agreement between the two secretariats. The agreement provides for convening an intergovernmental conference every five or six years to review the work of the two Organizations in hydrology and water resources and to make recommendations on the orientation of their future programmes. Those recommendations relating to WMO are then referred to Congress which sets out policy and general guidelines for WMO's subsequent collaboration with Unesco. The first of these conferences was held in 1974 at the Unesco headquarters in Paris to mark the end of the International Hydrological Decade, and the second was in 1981, Geneva, March 1987- At the opening of the WMO/Unesco conference on hydrology and scientific bases of water resources management. Left to right: A.-R. Kaddoura (Assistant Director-General for Science, Unesco); A. M. M'Bow (Director-General, Unesco); J. E. Slater (Chairman); J. Nemec (Director of the Hydrology and Water Resources Department, WMO); G. 0. P. Obasi (Secretary-General, WMO); S. Dumitrescu (Deputy Assistant Director-General for Science, Unesco) Photo: WMO!Bianco) 203 CLIMAT messages over the GTS and to strive to achieve a density of ten reporting stations per 250 000 km2• The Association expressed strong interest in the CucoM project and encouraged its Members to participate in the INFOCLIMA scheme. A working group was established on climate data management and user services, with rapporteurs on various aspects of the WCP. The Climatic Atlas for Africa is being compiled in Egypt, and Members which had not yet sent their climatological data to Cairo were urged to do so promptly so that the atlas could be completed before the Association's next session. Within the Research and Development Programme, the Association identified the tropical meteorology research programme as having priority for Members in the Region. Accordingly the session re-established a working group on research in tropical meteorology, but disbanded the WAMEX Scientific and Management Regional Committee, incorporating the functions of the rapporteur on WAMEX-related research in those of the working group. Turning to applications of meteorology, the session warmly welcomed the considerable number of reports published recently by WMO in the field of agrometeorology, and encouraged Members to take advantage of the expert missions arranged under the programme. Three rapporteurs were appointed: one on agrometeorological literature relevant to Africa, one on collaboration between agrometeorologists and users of their products, and one on the control of locusts and other pests. As regards aeronautical meteorology, one of the principal difficulties lay in disseminating products from World and Regional Area Forecast Centres, and WMO was asked to study this problem with ICAO. Special training in aeronautical weather services for meteorological personnel in contact with aviation was called for. In the case of marine meteorology, the serious lack of marine meteorological services for the seas around the African continent was a matter of concern, and here again there were deficiencies in disseminating the few products that were available (although the implantation at Maadi (Egypt) of the first INMARSAT Coast Earth Station in the Region was noted with appreciation). Rapporteurs were appointed to analyse the problems in the eastern Atlantic and western Indian Oceans respectively, and they were asked to convey their findings to CMM as well as to the Association. Examining the Hydrology and Water Resources Programme, the Association laid emphasis on the Operational Hydrology Programme and the Hydrological Operational Multipurpose Sub-system and re-established its working group on hydrology. The Education and Training Programme continued to be of very high priority for the Members of Region I since a substantial requirement still existed for qualified personnel. At the same time, the session underlined the need for training the users of meteorological and hydrological products. A rapporteur was appointed on education and training matters. Warm appreciation was expressed for assistance given through various channels within the Technical Co-operation Programme. Nevertheless, the session recommended that consideration be given to providing some funds for technical assistance under the WMO regular budget to meet the most urgent needs in the Region. The Association strongly supported the creation of the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and agreed on its long-term objectives and primary functions. The ad hoc group established after the second Technical Conference on the Management of Meteorological Services in Africa (Bujumbura, November 1985) will continue to assist the secretariats ofWMO and ECA in relevant preparatory activities. 202 recent rains over most of Africa had been relatively good, but the tragic consequences of the earlier severe drought coupled with an economic crisis were on the minds of delegates throughout the deliberations. In his address at the opening session, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Zimbabwe, His Excellency Mr Robert Mugabe, issued a challenge to African meteorologists to demonstrate the practical value of meteorology rather than merely excel in theoretical sophistication. He stressed the need for tangible meteorological products that could be readily understood and smoothly and expeditiously integrated into the various national, sub-regional and regional economic development processes. Mr Mugabe was introduced by the Zimbabwean Minister of Transport, H.E. Mr H. U shewokunze. The Secretary-General ofWMO, Professor G. 0. P. Obasi, expressed appreciation to the Prime Minister for his address and thanked the Government and people of Zimbabwe for hosting this important session in the historic city of Harare. He emphasized the role of the Regional Association in promoting meteorology and operational hydrology as effective instruments in the socio-economic development of Africa. The Heads of State and Governments in the Organization of African Unity (OAU) had explicitly recognized this by adopting recommendations and resolutions to strengthen national Meteorological Services. This was also an element in the OAU Plan of Action for the Economic Recovery of Africa (1986-1990). The Secretary-General congratulated Members on their traditional spirit of understanding and co-operative self-help. Dr M. C. Zinyowera, Director of the Meteorological Department and Permanent Representative of Zimbabwe with WMO, in turn welcomed the participants and affirmed the importance that his country attached to regional co-operation. The president of the Association, Mr W. Degefu, then reviewed work undertaken during the preceding inter-sessional period, a period which had ~en marked by economic crises and climate-related disasters. He called upon the Association to give guidance on the issues that would have to be dealt with during the coming years. The session discussed in considerable detail the regional aspects of WMO programmes. In general the Association endorsed the Second WMO Long-term Plan, but pointed out that full attainment of the stated objectives would require strong external assistance. In the light of results of a comprehensive survey on the operational status ofWorld Weather Watch components in Africa, the Association decided upon an elaborate set of remedial measures, identifying those Member countries in which assistance would be needed for urgent action. Moreover, an integrated working group was established on regional WWW systems planning, co-ordination and implementation, with rapporteurs on codes and on each of the WWW components. This was an innovation, since in the past working groups had been almost exclusively oriented towards telecommunications. An Operational WWW Systems Evaluation for Africa was considered essential since it would permit an appraisal of new technologies in the African context and of the feasibility of introducing them. Re-establishing its Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South-West Indian Ocean, the Association requested the committee to give close attention to a regional co-operative project in tropical cyclone forecasting, warning and disaster preparedness. As regards the World Climate Programme, the session stressed the need to improve the availability of climatological data so as to be able to meet requirements for applications, monitoring and research. Members were urged to step up the exchange of 201 The CAgM Advisory Working Group was charged with following up developments concerning the Long-term Plan, drafting guidelines for its implementation, updating the time-line charts and participating in drafting the Third Long-term Plan. At the same time the president was asked to propose to Congress that the theme 'fisheries (food aspects)' be added to the Commission's terms of reference. The working groups and rapporteurs of CAgM had prepared a number of reports for the session, and the Secretary-General was requested, within the limits of available resources, to arrange for Secretariat support to permit the rapid publication of these reports and the preparation of practical manuals based on them. Permanent representatives might be asked to allow members of their staff, who so wished, to participate in the translation of the reports into the working languages of the Organization. Five Commission working groups and 19 rapporteurs were established at the session. Work would focus on certain crops chosen on the basis of their wide distribution in the world. It was suggested that other crops be studied by those regional associations most concerned. A detailed list was drawn up of subjects to be covered, which included: (a) studies relating to advanced industrialized countries, in which subjects of particular importance were the quality of produce, pollution, reducing production costs and conserving natural and non-renewable resources, and (b) studies relating to the developing countries, where subjects of particular importance were strengthening operational agrometeorological services, setting up a national infrastructure for co-operation between agriculture and meteorology, the transfer of knowledge, pest control, the rational use of natural resources, the development of low-cost technology, and developing operational services to support the exploitation and conservation of forests in all climatic zones. New chapters on desertification, floods, forests and the storage of agricultural produce are to be included in the WMO Guide to agricultural meteorological practices (WMO-No.134), and the Commission approved the subject headings for these chapters. The Commission continued to attach much importance to education and training in agrometeorology. Full support was given to proposals for organizing seminars, workshops and symposia in this area, and special importance was attributed to agrometeorology and crop protection. During the session an open forum was arranged to permit im exchange of ideas and experience; approximately 20 participants spoke on problems and applications of agrometeorology in their countries. In addition, eight scientific lectures were given. Mr A. Kassar and Mr C. Stigter were elected respectively president and vice-president of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology. REGIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR AFRICA NINTH SESSION, HARARE, DECEMBER 1986 At the invitation of the Government of Zimbabwe, the ninth session of Regional Association I (Africa) took place at the Harare International Conference Centre from 8 to 19 December 1986. The 61 participants represented 35 Member countries of the Association, six Members from other Regions and nine international organizations. The 200 The Commission decided that its next intersessional period would be devoted to practical applications of agrometeorology and to demonstrating its importance to agricultural production and national economies. It is intended to arrange an exhibition on this theme during Tenth Congress, and pilot projects will be launched to illustrate the economic benefits of applied agrometeorology, it being understood that it may sometimes be difficult to distinguish between the extent to which a benefit is attributable to applying agrometeorology and to good agronomic practices. Madrid, November 1986 - Participants in the ninth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology Photo:INM Turning to the Second WMO Long-term Plan, the Commission endorsed the proposals put forward by the acting president and the Secretary-General. It was suggested that the Secretary-General inform ministers of agriculture about the relevant activities under the Plan, having regard to the fact that they related to the quality of agricultural produce, protecting the environment and conserving natural resources, especially non-renewable ones. The Commission also suggested that permanent representatives be encouraged to set up in each of their countries a framework to ensure close collaboration between the national Meteorological Service and those responsible for the use of meteorological information in planning and carrying out routine agricultural functions. There was merit in each Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Service having its own agrometeorological unit. The Commission expressed the hope that co-operation between WMO and international agronomic research institutes and FAO would be bolstered through national seminars, joint publications and the application of meteorological information in agricultural development projects. The Climate Application Referral System (CARS) comprises documentation on proven techniques in the application of climatology to various socio-economic problems. The session called for a CARS publication relating to the fight against desertification. Noting with interest national progress reports in agrometeorology, the Secretary-General was asked to include techniques mentioned in these reports in the next CARS-Food release. Great importance was also attached to CARS-Agrometeorological models. 199 for under such conditions; some have freely provided their slides for use by the National Weather Service in training local community storm spotters3. All conscientious storm-chasers carefully record details about each picture they take, and share the fruits of their expeditions with research workers, helping them to unravel the many unsolved problems in the domain of major storm cells. Storm-chasers keep in contact with each other and exchange their unique experiences through a national newsletter entitled Storm Track:+. Conclusion Storm-chasing requires much study and careful planning if it is to be done safely and successfully. Regular practitioners are totally dedicated individuals who are accustomed to the frustrations of the pursuit; those long drives only to arrive a few minutes too late to capture on film a splendid tornado. They optimistically wait for that one moment when they stand alone before the thunderstorm of their lifetime and take home pictures to permit them to relive that moment on a cold winter's evening by the fireside. REFERENCES BROWN, R. J. (1976): The Union City, Oklahoma, Tornado of 24 May 1973. NOAA Technical Memorandum ERL NSSL-80. GOLDEN, J. H. (1972): The NSSL-Notre Dame Tornado Intercept Program, Spring 1972. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 53 pp.J1 78-1180. HOADLEY, D. H. (1982): Commentary. Storm Track 5 3. COMMISSION FOR 'AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY NINTH SESSION, MADRID, NOVEMBER 1986 At the invitation ofthe Spanish Government, the ninth session of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology was held in Madrid from 17 to 28 November 1986. It was attended by representatives of 55 countries and eight international organizations, and the proceedings were guided by the acting president, Mr A. Kassar. At the opening ceremony a minute's silence was observed in memory of Mr Norbert Gerbier who had died in office as president of CAgM on 1 October 1985. Dr Manuel Bautista, Permanent Representative of Spain with WMO, welcomed the participants and affirmed that the agricultural meteorology activities foreseen in the Second WMO Long-term Plan would be of great interest to his country. The Secretary-General of WMO, Professor G. 0. P. Obasi, thanked Dr Bautista for having invited the Commission to meet in Madrid and for the excellent facilities put at the disposal of the session. He paid tribute to Mr Gerbier, saying that his contribution to the development of agricultural meteorology in general, and to strengthening developing countries' agrometeorological activities in particular, would long be remembered. 3 The author has two tornado photographs in the new edition of Volume II of the WMO International Cloud Atlas (Ed). 4 Information about Storm Track may be obtained from Timothy Marshall, 1336 Brazos Blvd., Lewisville, Texas 75067, USA. 198 confirmation that it was possible to identify the early stages of tornadic storms and approach them safely to investigate further. The Meteorological Department of the University of Oklahoma initiated its own storm-chasing programme at· about that time and worked closely with the NSSL, merging its academic interests with the Laboratory's emphasis on improving technology and equipment. Texas Tech University at Lubbock in turn launched another similar programme in which the emphasis was on the structural tolerances of different building designs and materials; it was also interested in storm characteristics and wind speeds, but from the point of view of improved construction techniques. Since the early and mid-1970s, these three educational establishments have been at the focal point of field investigations and studies of severe storms in the USA. Each has successfully pursued and documented many storms which have included tornadoes, microbursts, hail, severe winds, flash floods, mesoscale convective complexes and other storm phenomena. Tremendous progress has been made in refining Doppler radars as a warning tool and in developing instrumentation for more accurate measurements. Individual storm-chasers In addition to these co-ordinated group projects, a number of individual research meteorologists go storm-chasing on their own, as do many amateurs who have had no formal training in the science but have acquired a passion for hunting and recording these dramatic phenomena. The latter individuals often owe their interest to having witnessed a particularly spectacular event which stimulated them to learn more about convective storms by reading and through first-hand experience. This group is entirely self-taught, and over the years a number have achieved a remarkable capability to predict storms and their evolution, because the success of their pursuit depends upon a good forecast. It is therefore perhaps not entirely a coincidence when two storm-chasers who may live more than a thousand kilometres from each other find themselves side by side in the middle of nowhere watching the same cumulonimbus. Severe storms have a fascination for chasers at different levels. First there is the confrontation with a spectacular and uncontrollable natural phenomenon at close range; few things in life compare with standing in the shadow of a building cumulonimbus with fitful gusts of wind pulling at your clothing and sweeping the dusty soil into the storm's updraught. Secondly, the challenge to forecast accurately and consistently where these storms will occur; each chaser must draw on science, experience and intuition. Thirdly, the sense of participating in an awesome natural event which comes from knowledge about these storms and of the complex mosaic of wind streams that sweep through and around the thunderhead; it is easy for a chaser to mentally project himself into a storm and vicariously experience these forces at work. Fourthly, the perception of something infinite and eternal, beyond human reference. Finally, there are the memories of each spring's storm-chases, and the recollection of one's first twister, things which imbue a heady sentiment of being young again and as free as the winds one is following [Hoadley (1982)]. Benefits from storm-chasing Perhaps there is a measure of self-indulgence in practising storm-chasing, but it does bring some real benefits to the community. Chasers help to save lives by reporting severe weather over the Citizens' Band radio from their automobiles or by telephone; some give illustrated talks on weather to local civic associations, social clubs and scout groups, thereby ~preading vital knowledge about severe weather and what to look out 197 96L A typical storm-chaser's day would probably begin just after sunrise with an early morning check of the televised national weather forecast. If severe weather seems possible in the vicinity, he or she will go to the local NWS office for more specific information and make an analysis (usually a very detailed surface map is prepared from the latest hourly observational data), and scrutinize it for typical severe weather patterns. If the nearest active weather system is some distance away, the chaser may drive for several hours to another station nearer it. Indeed, on a very active day he may drive all day and late into the night without stopping for meals. As he approaches a developing cell, the storm-chaser takes numerous reference photographs and then positions himself five to eight kilometres south-east of the storm's south-western flank .. He moves slowly with the storm, stopping frequently for close-up pictures or video shots. He is always very conscious of the danger oflightning and usually stays inside his automobile taking pictures through an open window. It is common to drive up to 800 km in a day, and in a three-week period the storm-chaser may easily cover 15 000 km and consider himselflucky if he brings back pictures of one or two tornadoes and half a dozen funnel clouds. There is no guarantee that he will get anything; experienced chasers and even professional research meteorologists may come home empty-handed. Sometimes it was the forecast that was incorrect, or maybe there were simply no storms within reach. Professional storm-chasers First of all, credit must be given to research meteorologists who seek and monitor storms on behalf of governmental laboratories and universities. Highly instrumented and carefully controlled storm-chasing programmes have been developed since 1972 to collect a wide range of field data and photographs, and to integrate simultaneous imagery from satellites and radars. The first such organized storm chase was conducted by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) from Norman, Oklahoma [Golden (1972)]. It met with modest success, documenting two tornadoes and a funnel cloud. Of prime interest to the NSSL was (and still is) testing and adapting Doppler radars to better detect and report incipient tornadic activity within thunderstorms. The following year the NSSL programme achieved its first notable success -yyith the complete film coverage of the Union City tornado of 23 May 1973. That storm was surrounded by monitoring vehicles guided to strategic locations by the radar operator at Norman. The principal data vehicle was just a few kilometres south-east of this F-4 tornado2 and watched it virtually from its formation to its demise some 28 minutes later [Brown (1976)]. Almost as important as the information gleaned from this one storm was the .·· 2 The Fujita-Pearson tornado intensity scale is based on maximum wind speed, path length and path width and ranges from F-0 to F-5. Captions to colour pictures: 1 A tornado over central Kansas on 30 May 1974 which persisted for 20 minutes and destroyed farm buildings. It was unusual in that it moved from the NNW; on average only one in 20 does this 2 Two storm-chasers who are kneeling to reduce danger from lightning observe a rotating wall cloud over Oklahoma on 30 May 1976 that had produced a small tornado 15 minutes earlier 3 Mamma on the rear underside of the anvil of a tornadic storm on 6 June 1971 4 (overleaf! A supercell over central Kansas state which produced three tornadoes, large hail and heavy rain during a 45-minute period on 5 June 1974 Photos: D. K. Hoadley 194 By way of conclusion Most of the countries bordering the Indian Ocean have, it must be admitted, other more important priorities than climate research. Nevertheless, the sea-level programme is one through which many developing countries may contribute, without much financial outlay, to a cause that will eventually be beneficial to them. The technology and local resources required for a long-term monitoring programme are modest compared with other systems. The instrument is simple to install and operate. In fact, participation in the Global Sea-level Observing System represents a small, but extremely valuable, commitment from countries that do not have the resources for major monitoring and research programmes. STORM-CHASING IN THE USA By David HOADLEY1 On the first warm day of spring when southerly breezes from the Gulf of Mexico are fanning the Great Plains of the United States of America, about three dozen dedicated individuals across the country begin taking their photographic equipment from the cupboard and unfolding their road maps. This constitutes one of the rites of spring for a special type of weather enthusiast known as the 'storm-chaser'. Collectively they form a small but growing fraternity of amateur photographers who plan their vacations, careers and even their place of residence around the severe thunderstorms of the American mid-west. Their enthusiasm leads them to drive out into that great expanse of flat open country, locate at an early stage a developing convective cell and record on film or video tape the complete life cycle of a severe thunderstorm. They are motivated in particular by the hope that they will be on hand to witness the supreme manifestation of these storms: a tornado. It is not the destructive power of this phenomenon that attracts the storm-chaser, but rather the fascination of confronting and recording a comparatively rare and visually impressive natural wonder and marvelling at its symmetry, structure and evolution. People who share this passion for watching severe overland storms range from meteorologists and lawyers to bakers and carpenters. Whatever their personal and professional background, each brings to this . avocation considerable patience, tenacity and love and respect for nature. The geography of the American mid-west and plains states is uniquely disposed to produce more severe thunderstorm cells than anywhere else in the world. Briefly, the main features are: the Rocky Mountains to the west which dry out the prevailing westerly mid-level winds; the Gulf of Mexico to the south with no barrier to interrupt the flow of warm moist air all the way up to Canada; and the hot dry south-western plateau which feeds even warmer air into the tropopause to cap an inversion layer over the region. This is the mid-continent mixing-bowl known locally as 'Tornado alley'. There is a conjunction of circumstances that has facilitated storm-chasing over recent decades: (a) there was rapid progress during the 1950s in understanding the general dynamics of tornadic thunderstorms, including visual references about storm structure; (b) public forecasts of severe weather were substantially improved during the 1960s; (c) the public has access to most weather data centres in local National Weather Service offices and Federal Aviation Flight Service stations; (d) most of the interstate highway system was completed during the 1960s providing means of swift transit between storm states, but there is little traffic on the roads; (e) high quality 35 mm cameras and accessories are now widely available at relatively low cost; (f) individual transportation is accessible to most people. 1 A storm-chaser from Virginia, USA. 193 by MMA staff, the installation was completed within three days and the sea-level gauge became operational. We are most grateful to the Survey Division of the Ministry of Housing, Lands and Environment for conducting the levelling exercise necessary to tie the zero of the tide gauge to the national bench-mark. Having acquired this experience, the MMS then assumed the entire responsibility for installing an instrument on the island ofRodrigues (600 km ENE of Mauritius). A preliminary visit was made at the beginning of September to choose a site and make the necessary arrangements. The gauge and pipe were transported there as soon as permission to use the intended site had been obtained from the MMA. A team consisting of two officers from the MMS and one from the MMA went to Rodrigues at the beginning of November and, helped by technicians from the Rodrigues port service and the works division of the Ministry for Rodrigues, the installation was completed within a few days. The first ever graphical recording of tides at the island was obtained on 6 November 1986. The first daily and monthly sea-level values for Mauritius and Rodrigues have been dispatched to Hawaii and Bidston. The next target will be to set up a bubble-type gauge at Agalega Is (1000 km north of Mauritius), a site which has been given top priority. The sea-level gauge at Port Louis, Mauritius The installation of the gauge on Rodrigues Is land Photos: Mauritius Meteorological Services 192 magnetic or punched-paper tape. The pressure measured by a pressure gauge on the sea floor can be related to the height of the sea surface by means of the hydrostatic equation; the recorder may be located either on the sea bed or ashore, connected to the underwater sensor by pressure tubes or electric cables. The latter (pressure) system has some advantage over the former in that it does not require a jetty. The Global Sea-level Observing System The IOC is promoting the Global Sea-level Observing System (GLOSS) for which 250 stations have been selected in the context of TOGA and World Ocean Circulation Experiment priorities. Many stations are already operational, some need to be upgraded or reactivated, but 100 new stations still need to be established. It is in the Pacific Ocean that the sea-level observing network has most nearly attained a satisfactory status. A mean-sea-level pilot project co-ordinated by IGOSS for tsunami warning purposes has been in operation since 1985. Mean monthly sea-level anomaly charts are prepared on a routine basis and published as one of the global indices in the monthly Climate diagnostics bulletin issued by the USA's Climate Analysis Center. In the Indian Ocean much still has to be done before sea-level products can become routine. To this end, IOC and IGOSS place much emphasis on implementing a sea-level monitoring programme in the region. A network of sites in both equatorial and mid-latitude regions has been devised for monitoring specific processes such as the annual development of the western boundary current, equatorial ocean dynamics, the exchange of water between the Indian and Pacific Oceans through the Indonesian archipelago and the strength of the Antarctic circulation. Activities in the South- West Indian Ocean Two training programmes were organized on sea-level monitoring in the south-western Indian Ocean (in September 1983 and June 1984) by the Institute of Oceanographic Services at Bidston (United Kingdom) which maintains the Permanent Service for Mean Sea-level. The University of Hawaii is sponsoring the sea-level monitoring station network under the well-known oceanographer Professor Klaus Wyrtki, and Mr Ted Murphy visited the region in June and July 1986 to advise and assist in setting up new stations. Equipment has been installed at four sites so far: one in the United Republic of Tanzania, one in Kenya and two in Mauritius. The second phase of the programme should see stations set up in the Maldives and Diego Garcia (Chagos archipelago). Facilities in Mauritius A Munro floating-type sea-level gauge had been in use in Mauritius for several years up to 1975 to monitor tides in the harbour of Port Louis. The tidal regime became well documented and the amplitude was found to be small and of not very great significance for navigational purposes. Consequently, when the gauge became unserviceable it was not replaced or repaired. Now, however, the importance of sea-level data for other purposes is recognized, and the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has taken an interest in GLOSS and is providing local facilities. Mr Murphy arrived in Mauritius from Kenya at the beginning of July 1986. The site selection had been made in the Port Louis area prior to his arrival, with the help of the harbour-master of the Mauritius Marine Authority (MMA). The Central Water Authority kindly provided an asbestos cement pipe six metres long and 12 cm in diameter to serve as the stilling well. Under Mr Murphy's guidance, and with assistance 191 hydrometeorological scientific achievements solely for peaceful purposes and for the well-being of mankind. Througn WMO, Mongolia has in turn received technical assistance by way of equipment, expert services and grants through UNDP and VCP. It can be said that on the strength of its major scientific research achievements and the practical applications of their results, the Hydrometeorological Service of the Mongolian People's Republic can celebrate its fiftieth anniversary with justifiable pride. SEA-LEVEL MONITORING IN THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN By S. RAGOONADEN* Sea-level variation has long ·been considered an important index in the study of long-term climatic trends. Though past changes in sea-level can be attributed to a combination of many factors, it has been found that the signals associated with climatic fluctuations are the most prominent. In fact, sea-level data have taken on considerable significance since they were seen to be a promising element in explaining the development of El Nino, a phenomenon which has far-reaching repercussions on the general circulation of the atmosphere, with widespread disruption of the weather patterns around the globe. It is not surprising, therefore, that many international organizations concerned with weather and climate issues are co-ordinating their efforts to obtain regular sea-level data from all the oceans. Uses and applications of sea-level data Analysis of a long time-series of sea-level data can provide a wealth of information on ocean/atmosphere interactive processes, and the uses and applications of sea-level data are numerous. They permit insight into any change in ocean volume associated with a melting of polar ice caps as a result of the potential 'greenhouse' warming, and also serve as valuable input to numerical models for investigating ocean dynamics and estimating ocean heat storage through the expansion resulting from changes in mean temperature. Sea-level data are also used for non-meteorological purposes such as ship navigation in the vicinity of harbours, studying movements of the Earth's crust or calculating mean sea-level to serve as a reference plane. Sea-level data have, furthermore, wide applications for operational activities and in coastal engineering design. Long-term monitoring can provide statistics for calculating return periods for extreme events, a prime requirement in the design of coastal defences. They are also important in detecting tsunami and issuing timely warnings of coastal flooding from tidal waves. Methods of observing sea-level To obtain a continuous record of sea-level variations, two basic parameters may be monitored: either the sea-surface level or the pressure at a fixed point on the sea bed. The sea-surface level can be measured by means of a float inside a stilling well (which dam pens short-period wave oscillations). The vertical movement of the float may be recorded continuously by graphical means or in digital form at discrete intervals on * Mauritius Meteorological Services 190 Federal Socialist Republic on 'co-operation in the field of hydrometeorological research'. In accordance with this agreement, the first hydrometeorological stations were set up in 1936 at Ulaanbaatar, Hovd, Uliastay, Tsetserleg, Ondorhaan and Dalandzadgad. By 1940, the number had almost doubled. With the organization of co-operative farms and the opening up of new land for agriculture, the need arose for comprehensive research and a more effective use of hydrometeorological resources. To meet this requirement, an extensive network of stations ~as set up and practical measures taken to ensure uninterrupted operational information for scientific and industrial institutions in the agricultural sector. Moreover, because of increasing activities in the construction industry, it was necessary to establish hydrometeorological and geophysical norms for industrial and urban planning. At the beginning of the 1960s, when Mongolia took major steps in industrialization, many new branches of the national economy were developed which necessitated observations with additional weather and climatic elements. At present, the Service comprises more than 20 scientific research and forecasting units as well as more than 560 stations and other units carrying out observations and research in meteorology, hydrology, aerology, agrometeorology, zoometeorology and environmental pollution. A large amount of information is computerized and published in manuals, meteorological yearbooks, monthly bulletins and tables. To meet the growing need for qualified staff, meteorological departments were set up in 1962 at the Mongolian Government University and at the Tsetserleg Agricultural Technical Institute. The 1970s saw the introduction of modern data-acquisition facilities such as weather radar, satellite cloud-imagery readout stations and telecommunications equipment. Each year a group of students goes to the Soviet Union for training in specialized fields such as aerology, computer technology and telecommunications. The computerized processing of operational and other meteorological and hydrological information meant that the former methods of approximate subjective analysis could be replaced by hydrodynamic and physico-statistical forecasting methods. Forecasts for various time ranges and in varying degrees of detail are of exceptional importance to the economy of Mongolia. Particular attention has been given to studying natural and man-made pollution of air, water and soil. In 1966 the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology was created and, arising from its research work, manuals and atlases have been prepared and issued on the climatic, hydrological and agroclimatological resources of Mongolia. Research results are published each year by the Institute in Mongolian, with notes in Russian and English. Over the past 50 years the Mongolian Hydrometeorological Service has expanded its international co-operative activities. There have been friendly bilateral exchanges of scientists and technicians with the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment and the Meteorological Service of the German Democratic Republic. Mongolian experts took part in Soviet Antarctic expeditions and in MONEX and other programmes relating to the study of the atmospheric circulation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The joint Mongolian/Soviet centre for high-atmosphere research, which launches rocketsondes regularly, has gained wide repute. The Mongolian Service is also an active contributor to the Conference of Directors of Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services in socialist countries. Since becoming a Member ofWMO in 1963, Mongolia has participated actively in the various programmes of the Organization, placing emphasis on the use of 189 followed faithfully in the high traditions of Irish scientists of the past: Robert Boy le (of Boyle's law), Francis Beaufort (of the Beaufort wind scale), Thomas Robinson (of the Robinson cup anemometer), James Apjohn (of Apjohn's wet-bulb equation), Robert Scott (first Director of the British Meteorological Office and a leading light in the creation ofiMO) and Sir George Stokes (of the Stokes equations). It is therefore with well-founded optimism that the Irish Meteorological Service enters its second half-century. The Deputy Secretary-General of WMO, Mr D. K. Smith, speaking at the anniversary cele bration of the Irish Meteorologi cal Service Photo: Irish Meteorological Service THE MONGOLIAN HVDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE'S GOLDEN JUBILEE By B. MYAGMARZHAV In November 1986 the Hydrometeorological Service of the Mongolian People's Republic celebrated its fiftieth anniversary. To mark the occasion, representatives of governmental and scientific institutions gathered for a ceremony at which a report was read by the Director of the Service. Reports and results of research carried out in Mongolia in the field of hydrometeorology and the control of the natural environment were then discussed. There was also an exhibition demonstrating how the scientific achievements and their practical results had had a significant impact on the national economy. Many members of the staff of the Hydrometeorological Service were honoured and presented with medals. From ancient times the Mongolian people have documented climatic changes in an attempt to forecast the weather. However, throughout the centuries of Lamaism, little progress was made in understanding the scientific rationale for phenomena observed. Lamaism was abolished by the People's Revolution of 1921, and one ofthe results of the new impetus given to scientific research was the creation of the national Hydrometeorological Service. This was based on an agreement signed in 1935 between the government of the Mongolian People's Republic and that of the Russian Soviet 188 In keeping with the best traditions of co-operation in meteorology, the British Met. Office provided invaluable assistance in setting up the new Irish Service, both as regards a smooth transition of the network from British to Irish control, and in lending the services of professional staff until Irish meteorologists had been trained. These seconded British staff members included some who were later well known in world meteorological circles, for example S. P. Peters and J. Harding were both to become Assistant Directors of the British Met. Office, H. H. Lamb is now a renowned climatologist, and D. A. Davies subsequently served as Secretary-General of WMO for almost 25 years. The newly-created Irish Meteorological Service was extremely fortunate that such first-class scientists were available at that crucial time, and also that two distinguished meteorologists from continental Europe joined it: Dr Mariano Doporto from Spain and Dr Leo Wenzel Pollak from Czechoslovakia. By degrees, the first batches of Irish meteorologists were recruited, trained and assimilated into the operational activities of the Service. The last of the loaned British meteorologists returned home, but Dr Doporto remained and in 1948 succeeded Mr Nagle as Director, whilst Dr Pollak became senior professor at the Dublin Institute of Advanced Studies. As was the case with many other Services, the expansion of aviation was a major factor in the development of the Irish Meteorological Service. The flying boat base at Foynes, and, from 1946, Shannon international airport, became major refuelling points for transatlantic flights which imposed onerous demands for comprehensive weather services. So great was the pressure from the aeronautical sector that, for the first two decades of its existence, the activities of the Service were almost exclusively in that field. Gradually, however, as the demands from aviation lessened somewhat, it became possible to devote more attention to other aspects of meteorology-forecasts for the public, agricultural, marine and industrial meteorology, environmental monitoring, climatological investigations and, latterly, research in the field of numerical weather prediction. With its well-balanced structure, the Service today responds to the demands of various social and economic interests. Backed by an observing network comprising 15 synoptic stations, 85 climatological stations and 650 rainfall stations, and aided by a modern communications network which is computer-linked to the GTS and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the Irish Meteorological Service has been moulded into an efficient organization geared to deal with the varied problems of modern meteorology. In the international sphere, the Service has played an honourable role over the past 50 years. Staff members have been active in the work of the IMO and WMO technical commissions and their working groups, and some were elected commission president or vice-president: the first Director, Austen Nagle, served as president of the IMO/WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology from 1946 to 1959 (and vice-president from 1959 to 1964), Killian Rohan was vice-president of CAeM (1964-1967), Austin Bourke was president of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology (1958-1962), and Shane Tierney was president of the Commission for Marine Meteorology (1968-1972). On the regional level, the Service was closely associated with the establishment and development of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, whose products are widely used to supplement those prepared in the Irish Meteorological Service. The Service is proud of its achievements over the past 50 years and of its standing in the international meteorological community. It may be a relatively small Service with very limited financial resources, but we believe that the standards of its service to the nation and to world meteorology have been consistently high, and that its staff have 187 between Panama and Galapagos; a frontal zone where all the thousands of floating objects carried by the current accumulated against a barrier of water, showing that the convergence ran NE-SW. Other characteristics of the front were the strong currents and numerous pelagic species (such as fish, sea mammals and birds) which fed on the organisms concentrated along the front. Beebe related this feature to the inexplicable absence of the Humboldt current as in the area south of the Galapagos Islands where he had found tropical marine fauna and relatively high sea temperatures. In recent years, marine science research conducted by Ecuadorian institutions has shown the important role played by this equatorial front as regards plankton fertility and the associated level of fish stocks. The remarkable variability of oceanographic conditions in the Ecuadorian sea area connected with the equatorial front and equatorial and coastal upwelling contribute to high plankton fertility and concomitant high populations of fish and crustacea, which have permitted the growth of a fishing industry recognized as one of the largest and most dynamic in the country. At the same time there are the anomalous marine conditions associated with El Niiio, the most recent occurrence of which (1982/83) ·dramatically altered the distribution and population patterns of fish, crustacea and almost all living organisms in the marine ecosystem, and lowered the sea's fertility by one fifth, with serious repercussions. Catches of pelagic fish were reduced, whilst floods along the entire Ecuadorian coastal region adversely affected agricultural production and the road network. The phenomenon in one way or another has affected, and will periodically continue to affect, the whole of Ecuador and the eastern Pacific, which is why we must make still greater efforts to understand its full significance. THE IRISH METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE'S GOLDEN JUBILEE By M. J. CONNAUGHTON In 1986 the Irish Meteorological Service celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of its creation. The event was marked by a number of public activities-exhibitions, open days at synoptic stations, social functions, and the publication of an anniversary booklet tracing the development of the Service and describing its work. The Irish Free State was founded in 1922, but until 1936 the British Meteorological Office continued to supervise the Irish station network and to handle requests for meteorological information from Ireland on an agency basis. The network at that time comprised four telegraphic reporting stations, 18 climatological stations and 172 rainfall stations. By the mid 1930s it was clear that aviation was poised for rapid development and that Ireland, by virtue of its strategic position on the western edge of Europe, would play a major role as an intermediate stopping point on air routes between Europe and North America. It was considered essential, therefore, that the services needed by aviation-air traffic control, radio and weather reports and forecasts-be organized on a national basis. The first step in establishing the national Meteorological Service was to appoint a director in the person of Mr Austen Nagle, who had previously occupied a senior post in the British Met. Office. Mr Nagle's immediate tasks when taking office on 8 December 1936 were to take over the existing observing network and recruit staff competent to supply the necessary meteorological services for the flying boats which were going to use the base at Foynes as an intermediate stop for transatlantic flights (see WMO Bulletin 33 (1) pp.7-10). 186 Perhaps it was Jer6nimo Benzoni in an account of a voyage to Ecuador between 154 7 and 15 50 who first mentioned one of the worst floods to effect that country. In his description of the Ecuadorian coast and the Gulf of Guayaquil he reported that in the year 1546, due to excessive rainfall, the River Guayas swelled so much that it not only caused damage but flooded a large part of the surrounding country, including the town of Guayaquil. The Spaniards thereupon moved about 20 miles further downstream and rebuilt the town on higher ground, but still close to the river. In an interesting account of the dry and rainy seasons in this area, Benzoni observed that in the province of Guayaquil winter began in November and lasted until the end of April; spring began in May and summer ended in October. Along the entire coast south of Tumbuz it was possible for the plains to have no rainfall at all for three or four years. So at least from the 1550s it must have been known that in some years there could be torrential rain and in other years severe drought. · Comparisons of the South American rainy season were made with periods of drought in other parts of the world. Tomas L6pez Medel, a high court judge in Nueva Granada, referred to them in his Tratado de !os tres elementos (Treatise on the Three Elements), particularly when dealing with the seas and the hydrography of the West Indies, and in a description of a voyage made to that area between 1558 and 1559. He gave remarkable descriptions of some aspects of the climate such as the rainy season, hinting at the knowledge widespread among the early Spanish colonists that in the years when there was a lot ofrain and plenty of water in the West Indies, other regions had little rainfall and water shortages; conversely when it was very rainy elsewhere the Indies had water shortages. L6pez Medel also wrote interesting accounts of hurricanes and severe storms on land and at sea, and gave detailed descriptions of marine fauna of the tropical Pacific Ocean such as sea-bream and flying fish. Thus two phenomena have been identified since ancient times: one atmospheric, relating to changes in wind direction and force; the other oceanic, relating to an increase in sea temperature from December into the first few months of each year. The irregular occurrence of years with heavy rainfall, without any detectable periodicity, has also been recognized for centuries. There are numerous references to events associated with El Nifio by the colonial chroniclers, who mention years of aberrant climate with torrential precipitation and overflowing rivers causing serious damage along the coast. Parallel with this was the anomalous 'tropicalizing' of the sea that disturbed the ecology to a catastrophic extent. Subsequent major scientific expeditions to America by the Spaniards over four centuries focused on the study of continental fauna, flora and minerals, but showed little interest in oceanic research. Only recently have the oceanographic conditions associated with El Nifio been recorded with greater accuracy. Robert C. Murphy, who was in Peru and Ecuador from December 1924 to March 1925, referred to El Nifio as a 'warm cross-current' appearing annually around Christmas-time, but assuming greater significance over longer periods of time. He considered the 1925 El Nifio to have been the strongest since 1891. He also showed that among the effects of the 'warm cross-current' were the disappearance of plankton; fewer fish; the invasion of coastal waters by tropical fauna; the death or emigration of sea birds and unusual quantities of rain. Charles W. Beebe also carried out zoological and oceanographic studies from the RV Arcturus in March and April1925 in the region comprising Panama, Galapagos and Cocos. He observed a remarkable phenomenon, nam~ly a very strong convergence ( 185 REFERENCES FOLLAND, C. K. and PARKER, D. E. (1985): World-wide and regional valiations of surface maline temperature 1856-1985. Proc. of the Joint Royal Meteoro. Soc./Hellenic Meteoro. Soc. Meeting (Athens, April 1985). TUCKER, C. J., FuNG, I. Y., KEELING, C. D. and GAMMON, R. H. (1986): Relationship between atmosphelic C02 valiations and a satellite-delived vegetation index. Nature 319 p.l95. WMO (1986/87): WCDP Climate System Monitoring Bulletin Nos. I, 2, 3, 7, 10 (1986) and No. 1 (1987). WMO (1987): WCDP Global Climate System Review (September 1984 to May 1986). WYRTIG, K. (1986): Fluctuations in upper-layer volume or near-surface upper oceanic heat content. In: Climate System Monitoring Bulletin No. 3, WMO. EL NINO- A HISTORICAL BACKGROUND By Roberto }IMENEZ* Archaeological excavations and discoveries along the north-west coast of South America from Esmeraldas in northern Ecuador to the south of Peru provide evidence that certain villages were mysteriously abandoned by their inhabitants many centuries ago. Some archaeologists believe that this abandonment was associated with marked climatic fluctuations similar to others recorded in history, several of which were related to the phenomenon known as El Nifio. When the Spaniards in their frail sailing vessels began to explore what was then called the Southern Sea (later to become the Pacific Ocean), the indigenes told them that the winds sometimes blew from the coast to the sea and at other times in the reverse direction; they were also warned that at certain times of the year the winds were so weak that navigation became impossible. The intrepid conquistadores soon confirmed the truth of this, and arranged their voyages to fit in with the period of favourable winds. The colony's chronicler, Pedro Cieza de Le6n, made detailed observations and descriptions of the South American coast, and it is to him that we owe our knowledge of the early sea routes. From his descriptions we can see that the usual sea routes always kept close to the coast, navigation being based on sighting landmarks, and with many shipwrecks as the result. The first significant historical reference to the system of sea currents and winds dates from a journey made by Father Tomas de Berlanga, Bishop of Castilla de Oro, who had been commissioned by royal decree of Carlos V to visit and report on the Spanish colonies. Either ignorant of the facts mentioned above or disregarding their importance, Tomas de Berlanga sailed from Panama on 23 February 1535. After eight days' sailing southwards the winds dropped entirely and the current carried the ship westwards, and on 10 March eventually brought it to the coasts of an island in a latitude about 30 minutes south of the Equator. It was thus quite by chance that Father Tomas discovered the Galapagos Islands, now a province of the Republic of Ecuador. Over the centuries that followed, it became generally known that from April or May the prevailing winds blew seawards from the coasts of Ecuador or Peru, but towards the end of the year they stopped or actually changed direction. In addition to this atmospheric sequence, it was noted that around December or January the north-western coast of South America was washed by warm currents. Since this phenomenon coincided with Christmas, it was called El Nifio, which means 'The (Christ) Child'. * Instituto Nacional de Pesca. This article is published by kind permission of El Universo, Guayaquil. 184 in fossil fuels and shales, the oceans and the atmosphere. The largest pool is in the oceans where it is estimated at nearly sixty times the total atmospheric loading (40 000 Gt (gigatonnes) compared with 700 Gt). Most of this C02 is dissolved in the deep cold ocean layers. Changes in ocean temperature through the year and biospheric respiration by both autotrophic and heterotrophic plants result in exchanges of C02 between the atmosphere, oceans and vegetation. In Figure 8, fluctuations in atmospheric C02 concentration are compared with changes in a satellite-derived vegetation index to show that a major part of the annual cycle in C02 amounts is due to the seasonal vegetation cycle. The emission of C02 resulting from human activities today is estimated to be enough to bring about a doubling of the atmospheric C02 concentration in about 75 years. Simulations using general circulation models of the climate system lead to the conclusion that the rise in the global mean equilibrium surface temperature due to a doubling of the C02 would be between 1.5 and 4.5K. Such a potential warming is likely to have large regional effects. Recently, attention has been given to the cumulative effects of other radiatively-active greenhouse gases which, combined with C02> could cause an equivalent warming to occur much earlier. The five gases thought to be of primary concern are chlorofiuorocarbons 11 and 12 (CFC13 and CF2Cl2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20) and tropospheric ozone (03). 90 . flO N 0 30 _ -30 ._-<.~vQ s Figure 8 - Variations in the global carbon dioxide content (above) and weighted normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (below) for the period 1982-1984 From: Tucker et al. (l986) The Villach international assessment of the role of C02 and greenhouse gases in climatic variations and associated impacts (WMO Bulletin 35 (2) p.l30) pointed out that if current trends were to continue, the combined concentration of C02 and other greenhouse gases would be radiatively equivalent to doubling the pre-industriallevel of C02 possibly by as early as the 2030s. A global warming on this scale is expected to lead to a sea-level rise of between 20 and 140 cm which would have a major effect on coastal areas and estuaries. 183 Southern hemisphere Wet/cold or dry/warm weather spells in the subtropics and mid-latitudes are usually associated with the position of ridges or blocks. The southern hemisphere blocking systems are not well defined in monthly mean circulation fields since they are generally less persistent or of smaller amplitude than in the north. They are, nevertheless, sufficient to deflect propagating wave disturbances towards or away from the southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia. The southern hemisphere extratropical anomaly is usually dominated by a wave number three or four pattern (see Figure 7). This signature on the basic zonal flow is engendered by the distribution of land masses in the southern hemisphere, even though they occupy a far smaller area than those in the north. Subtropical southern hemisphere regions appear to respond to fluctuations in tropical heat sources; for example, during an ENSO precipitation deficits or droughts occur in parts of Australia, southern Africa and southern South America. It is conceivable that tropical heat sources also exert an influence on the position of the long-wave components of the circulation as mentioned above. Figure 7- Southern hemisphere 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in June 1986 Greenhouse gases and climatic change Carbon dioxide is contained within a number of very large reservoirs between which two-way exchanges take place. These are the ancient biomass where C02 is stored 182 la r- 1 1 o h I I I I I I 11 I I I I I rrl !, 1, 11 \ d 1) I' \J, ~~ I rli~ihL l ,I ,I """"""111111 I :'I! . . -la I- I :. ~ 1920 1~40 1960 1980 0·4 0·2 oc 1-4--f _:·\J'·-11~\1910 Year " -0·2 -0·4 Figure 6 - Relationship between rainfall in the Sahel and the SST anomaly difference between the southern and northern hemisphere. Top: Standardized annual rainfall anomalies for the Sahel 1901-1985; Bottom: Southern hemisphere minus northern hemisphere SST anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 mean instance: do we currently have the correct approach to monitoring the extratropical climate system? General circulation model simulation experiments provide some insight into the processes involved in establishing equilibrium in the dynamics and thermodynamics of a circulation pattern, but they are often poor at explaining the time evolution of a particular circulation scenario. Weather prediction models are improving, but appear to have great difficulty in going beyond two weeks--conceivably that is the limit of the 'memory' built into the initialization field. Furthermore, the present generation of models is rapidly becoming as complex as the real climate system, making it difficult to keep track of exactly what is going on within the model atmosphere. It is suggested that the modelled climate system needs to be monitored just as carefully as the real one before basic physical questions can be answered. Northern hemisphere Reference to Figure 1 will show that the northern hemisphere winter in 1985/86 was characterized by relatively mild weather in Alaska, north-western USA and eastern USSR (particularly February) and cold weather in the Scandinavian area. The severe drought in south-eastern parts of the USA is perhaps related to an eastward displacement of the Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. 181 50'1,20~~0 Ol_R . L_ L ?20 PCPN, OLR • GT. 260 - Nil I°CPN I DEC 86 THRU 31 DEC 86 Figure 5- Mean outgoing long-wave radiation in December 1986 in W m-2 of the latter's convectively-active region. Figure 6 compares a Sahel rainfall index with changesjn the southern minus the northern hemisphere SST anomalies over the past 85 years; the correspondence is fairly good over the long term, and for the first time provides a clue to the long-lasting Sahelian droughts. (The SST anomaly difference between the South Atlantic and North Atlantic shows a similar signal, even though the relationship with the Sahelian rainfall is not quite so apparent.) This implies that large-scale changes in boundary-layer dynamics (moisture convergence) caused by changes in the global SST distribution are as important as more local effects. It is significant that in 1986 the South AtlantiG cooled whilst Sahel rainfall increased. Northern and southern hemisphere extratropics Unlike the tropics and subtropics, where ENSO represents a global-scale phenomenon with a certain characteristic circulation and weather signature and relatively long time scale (over one year), the extratropics are apparently subject to considerably more regional variability. The most persistent feature of the extra tropics, namely mid-latitude 'blocking' circulation anomalies, rarely last more than 35 to 40 days. Day-to-day variability, however, is more systematic in the extratropics with the presence of baroclinic wave perturbations. Their eastward motion is more or less uniform over the ocean, but more erratic over land (especially mountainous regions). Descriptions of mid-latitude patterns of circulation and weather on seasonal to interannual time scales often lack a unifying thread and tend to be patchy. Simple synoptic exposes tie the positioning of mid-tropospheric troughs or ridges to surface weather. However, it is not obvious why the trough and ridge systems are where they are. Large-phase reversals often occur with weather turning from wet/cold to dry/warm within a period of 15 to 30 days. There are favoured locations for the long-wave components of the atmospheric circulation which are orographically determined and show residence times beyond the five- to seven-day time scale of baroclinic wave disturbances. The question is: what causes changes to the location or phase of the long-wave system? Is it interaction with short waves? Is it interaction with the surface and upper-atmospheric boundaries? Is it interaction with tropical heat source anomalies? Or is it inherent noise in the system? Numerical model simulation results show that the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation appears to be much more sensitive to initial conditions than to prescribed boundary conditions. It has been suggested that the tropics may be intrinsically more predictable on seasonal and interannual time scales than the mid-latitudes. Clearly, a better monitoring system (distinctly different from the observing system) is needed to explain the observed extratropical circulation anomalies in basic physical terms. This poses interesting problems for research and diagnostic studies. For 180 water had also moved to around the international date line by then (Figure 3). Positive departures of 1.0-1.5K continued through December 1986, and the SOl had by then become -1.6cr. Corresponding changes were observed in sea-level, with positive anomalies in the eastern Pacific and negative in the west (about 10 cm in each case). These SST and sea-level anomalies are approximately one-third those observed at the height of the 1982/83 ENSO event. .,L~4~$~~ ,os Figure 3 --Blended analysis of sea-surface temperature in September 1986 on a 2S grid. Interval between full isotherms 2'C In December 1986 there was a general consensus that a slight to moderate ENSO was in progress, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation parameters indicated that it was in a mature phase. Typical ENSO-related anomalies were recorded such as a shift of the western Pacific convection area to the central Pacific, rainfall anomalies in parts of Australia, Indonesia and South-East Asia, central and southern America and parts of Africa. Figure 4 presents the 200-hPa stream function field in December 1986 which shows anomalous anticyclonic circulation systems straddling the equatorial Pacific around the international date line-an ENSO signature. Figure 5 shows the corresponding outgoing long-wave radiation field, with maximum convection (and thereby tropical diabatic heating) near the date line. It should be noted that the relationship between OLR and precipitation applies only to tropical convective systems (between latitudes 30'N and S). Figure 4- The 200-hPa stream function in December 1986 on a 5' Mercator grid. The contour interval is 10 x 106m2 s·l Rainfall in the Sahel Most rain in the Sahel falls between June/July and September/October with the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Recent studies suggest that the world-wide pattern of SST anomalies modulates the intensity of the moisture flux converging into the ITCZ, and to a limited extent modulates the latitude 179 Other features included: drought in southern Brazil, Paraguay and north-eastern Argentina (last half of 1985 into early 1986); drought in south-eastern USA (December 1985 to July 1986); dry in south-eastern Europe (March to June and August/September); cold winter in northern Europe (January temperatures 12-15K below normal); dry again in Brazil and Paraguay (October/ November 1986). The anomalies are presented schematically in Figure 1. El Nifio!Southern Oscillation Signs of an equatorial Pacific warming were observed during the early part of 1986 with a positive SST anomaly (1.0-1.5K) in eastern parts in December 1985 which persisted for a few months and appeared to begin to spread towards the central Pacific. The SOl was positive in December 1985 and January 1986 but became negative ( -1.3a) in February. A few other indicators also pointed to the incipient stage ofENSO in early 1986, such as outgoing long-wave radiation which implied slightly above-normal precipitation over the central and eastern Pacific However, neither the ocean subsurface thermal structure, nor the sea-level slope across the equatorial Pacific, nor yet the upper-ocean volume or heat content (Figure 2) appeared to be far from normal in February, and in March/April the central and eastern Pacific warming ran out rather abruptly, with very little observed effects on the western coasts of South America. Nevertheless, there were some reports of ENSO-associated happenings from the Galapagos Islands. An expedition that spent two months there observed during the period 27 February to 15 March 1986 thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rainfall in normally dry regions, with anomalous northerly winds often gusting to 15 m s- 1; these unusual conditions then ceased. Nesting failures were noted among blue-footed, red-footed and marked boobies, and there were reports of sea snakes (Hydrophidae) and Portuguese men-of-war (Physalia) in Galapagos waters which attested to a general warming of the sea in that region. From about April through August 1986, the SST was around normal, with very weak positive anomalies in parts of the central Pacific and even negative departures in the east (approximately -0.5K off the shores of Peru) in May and June. Regions of positive anomaly reappeared in the central equatorial Pacific in August and extended over a fairly large area in September, suggesting the onset ofENSO; the zone of warmest B 6 I! 2 Ill -2 -I! -6 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 Figure 2 - The volume of the upper layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean between latitudes !SON and !SOS relative to its mean value of about 70 x IQ14m3. The units on the ordinate are !014m3. The annual cycle has not been removed From: Wyrtki (1986) 178 180 !SOW J20W 90W SOW 30W 0 30E 60E 90E 12.0E ISOE 180 75N 75N 60 N 45N RECORD COLD NOV 85 30 N DRY 30 N JAN-MAR 86 ~ 15" q._. 15 N Ort~J lo 15. 15 s DRY 3<> s ABOVE NORMAL SST 1 S JAN-JUN ENSO CONDITIONS DEVELOP 86 BY SEPT 86 DRY y FEB- MAR 86 Cl 45S ~ !? DRY JUN- JUL 86 60S 60S 180 !'SOW 120W 90W 60W 30W 0. 30E 6QE 90E 120E ISOE !80 .... Figure 1-The principal climatic anomalies from November 1985 to October 1986 inclusive ..... Unless otherwise stated, all figures accompanying this article are reproduced by courtesy of the NOAA Climate Analysis Center, ..... Washington, D. C. reduced power until a new power plant and housing was constructed by the twenty-ninth Soviet Antarctic expedition in 1983/84. V ostok has since carried out its full scientific programme. There are now five large buildings housing the living accommodation, the magnetic room, meteorological, glaciological and geophysical instruments and equipment, upper-air radar and the power plant. Various smaller huts contain the hydrogen generator, food stores and so forth. In 1986 there were 28 men on the base under the leadership of a geophysicist from Leningrad, Dr A. M. Struin. It was his ninth visit to Antarctica and his fifth winter at the Antarctic Cold Pole! THE GLOBAl CLIMATE SYSTEM IN 1986 In the year under review, the global climate system was characterized by variability and anomalies which, although significant, either did not persist for any long periods of time or were not spatially extensive (i.e. covering the major part of a continent). The period September 1984 to May 1986 is covered in detail in the latest Global Climate System Review released by the WMO Secretariat in Aprill987. The tropics and subtropics Highlights of the tropical and subtropical climate system were: Negative equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature SST anomalies through most of 1985; positive anomalies in eastern parts from December 1985 to March 1986 which then disappeared. A second warming from September 1986 led up to a slight to moderate El Nino!Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event by the end of the year; Smoothed Southern Oscillation Index (SOl) values (WMO Bulletin 35 (4) p.315) remained around normal (zero) most of the year, but turned negative at the end; variability of plus or minus one standard deviation was noted in individual months; Positive tropical Atlantic SST anomalies (about 0.5 to l.OK) during most of 1985 began to diminish in 1986, especially in the south; The equatorial Pacific upper-ocean heat content and volume showed a gradual build-up through most of 1986; An upturn in Sahelian rainfall and relief from the prolonged drought in southern Africa, though precipitation still below normal in both regions (Sahel 89 per cent and southern Africa 70 per cent of normal for the 1985/86 season), but rainfall was generally good over southern Africa in October and November 1986; The SST differential between the northern and southern hemispheres shows a relationship with Sahelian rainfall; A deficient 1986 summer monsoort over India, deficient seasonal rains also over northern China (June and July) and dry conditions in eastern Australia (February to June inclusive); Intra-seasonal 30- to 60-day oscillations (WMO Bulletin 35 (4) p.317) were well defined in October/November 1985, April!May and October/ November 1986; 176 could. Once their hands were safe from frostbite, the men turned their attention to a small broken-down generator that had been out of use for years. They eventually succeeded in making it work and, twelve hours after the fire, radio contact was established with the base at Molodezhnaya and the outside world learnt of their plight. The men now had to decide whether to ask to be evacuated from the station or whether they felt they could rough it out for the next nine months. They were aware of the importance of maintaining their scientific work, and also that any bid to rescue them at that season would be very difficult and might put the lives of others at risk. Therefore it was agreed to stick it out, in full knowledge that their survival would depend upon their own efforts and ingenuity. The USSR's station Vostok at the Antarctic 'Cold Pole' Photos: Goskomgidromet At first, it was only possible to have one radio schedule a day, but as they contrived to improve the reliability of their generator this could be stepped up to four schedules daily. Meteorological and geomagnetic data were transmitted in routine fashion. Dr Astakhov assures us that one can become accustomed to living and working even in such extreme conditions as those of Vostok. If properly clothed, people could work out of doors for several hours in temperatures of -4o·c, and with a face-mask it was possible to work for up to 30 minutes even at - 8o·c. There were no cases of illness (although Dr Astakhov himself lost a finger in the frenzied efforts to put out the fire), and emotional friction between persons never reached serious proportions. One of the most annoying features of life at the Cold Pole that winter was the smoke and soot engendered by their improvised heaters. As soon as the conditions allowed, a train of sledges left Mirnyy for Vostok carrying food, fuel and spare generators. Dr Astakhov's team soldiered on until their replacements arrived by air during the summer of 1982/83. Then they in turn were flown back to the coast and their ship bound for home. The station was maintained on 175 means of receiving meteorological data and forecasts, regular satellite information on sea-ice conditions and a helicopter for local reconnaissance purposes. For this exploit, Dr Chilingarov was made a Hero of the Soviet Union. He gratefully acknowledges the invaluable help provided by the Meteorological Services of Australia and New Zealand. He pays tribute to the enthusiasm and excellent work of the officers and crew of the Vladivostok, the helicopter pilots and the scientists responsible for forecasting weather and ice conditions, and praises the stoicism of those on board the Mikhail Somov. Life· at the Antarctic 'Cold Pole' The second Soviet Antarctic expedition in 1956/57 under the leadership of Dr A. F. Treshnikov established a new scientific station on the Antarctic ice cap some 1300 km from the sea, either the Southern Ocean to the north or the Ross Sea to the east. Its position at 78'27'S 106'52'E coincided at the time with the south geomagnetic pole, and the station was named Vostok after the Russian flagship· of Fabian Bellingshausen's voyage of exploration in 1819/21. The 1400-km journey from Mirnyy by tractor-hauled sledge train takes about 45 days. There was one year-January 1962 to January 1963-when the station was left unmanned because it had not been possible to get the necessary supplies for a wintering party, but apart from that Vostok has been occupied continuously since before the beginning of the IGY. The mean annual temperature is -56'C; the absolute maximum -13.6'C (in January 1974) and minimum -89.2'C (in August 1984). Not surprisingly, Vostok has become known as the 'Cold Pole' of the planet. Scientists estimate that, whereas the altitude of the station is 3488 m above sea-level, the extremely low pressure in winter reduces the quantity of oxygen molecules in a given volume of air to the equivalent of that at the top of the Pamir mountains (above 7000 m), so that breathing is difficult. Underfoot is 100 m of snow firn and 3600 m of ice, so that the actual rock surface beneath Vostok is more than 200 m below sea-level. Glaciological cores have been taken to a depth of 2202 m, which permits a reconstruction of climatic conditions going back more than 150 000 years; micro-organisms were reanimated after about 10 000 years of anabiosis. Routine work at the base includes surface meteorological observations, upper-air soundings, actinometric, ionospheric and geomagnetic records, ozone and boundary-layer measurements and the monitoring of cosmic rays and radio emissions from space. Needless to say, Vostok is cut offfrom the rest of the world for a large part of the year; the sun disappears between about 24 April and 20 August. This can be a severe test for human beings at the best of times, but in April 1982 a fire destroyed the diesel generator power plant. The leader of the team that year was Dr P. G. Astakhov, and he recalled the events as follows. The fire alarm went off at 4.30 a.m. on 12 April 1982, when the outside temperature was about - 70'C. For half an hour the 20 men fought the blaze with everything they had, and succeeded in preventing the fire spreading to the fuel store and other buildings. However, the diesel mechanic, Mr A. I. Karpenko, lost his life and the generator hut and the power plant were destroyed. The camp was therefore without electric power; no lights and, worst of all, no heating. The temperature in all the buildings fell rapidly, and Dr Astakhov remembers that their main concern at first was to avoid frostbitten fingers. They managed to locate some old and half-forgotten oil-drip stoves and coaxed them into activity. Candles were made from the supply of stearin. In spite of their privations, the scientists continued the essential parts of their programme as best they 174 Peninsula. In 1973 he was back in the north involved in establishing a new drifting station, North Pole 22, in the Arctic Ocean. Dr Chilingarov was awarded the State Prize for his work on navigation in ice. Subsequently he was appointed head of the Department of Personnel, Education and Training of the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment. He relates that the Vladivostok left home on 12 June 1985 and reached Wellington (New Zealand) on 1 July where the ship was refuelled and arrangements made with Mr J. S. Hickman, Director of the New Zealand Meteorological Service, for the supply of meteorological products and data during the period that the Vladivostok would be in the south. Leaving Wellington on 6 July, for the next nine days the icebreaker rolled heavily in the stormy seas of the southern Pacific, an exhausting voyage for crew and scientists alike, but everything was intact when finally they met the Pave! Korchagin at the ice-edge in about longitude 150'W to transfer fuel and a helicopter. Dr Chilingarov gives an impromptu interview on his return to Moscow after the successful mission to rescue the Mikhail Somov Navigation in heavy pack-ice consumes a great deal of fuel because the technique is to follow leads and lines of weakness in the ice rather than attempt to force a way through in a straight line. Thus although hundreds of kilometres were sailed by the Vladivostok during the first few days in the ice, the gap between it and the Mikhail Somov was only reduced by some 30 km. It should be remembered that at these latitudes there was still practically no daylight at all, but nevertheless the helicopter pilots went on numerous ice-reconnaissance flights. By 23 July the icebreaker was close enough to permit the first helicopter flight to the Mikhail Somov when some essential items such as fuel and food were dropped so that, if the worst came to the worst and the research ship had to be abandoned, the crew could survive on the ice. The following day satellite imagery revealed a propitious zone of fractured ice, and thanks to this guidance the Vladivostok could get another 60 km closer to the Mikhail Somov. Spirits rose, and by forcing the necks of ice separating one patch of open water from another, by 26 July the icebreaker reached to within a kilometre of its objective. After two to three hours ramming the ice which held the research ship prisoner, the Mikhail Somov was freed at 7.43 p.m. in position 74'23'S 153'021fz'W (about 500 km due west of Russkaya), to loud cheers from both ships. With the help of satellite data and helicopter reconnaisance to find the route of least resistance, the Vladivostok led the Mikhail Somov more than 1500 km through the ice to the open waters of the southern Pacific Ocean. This rescue mission in the depths of the Antarctic winter was a completely new experience, and it showed that an icebreaker can navigate in the southern ice if it has 173 reinforced to withstand these conditions, and with a bit of patience a change of wind would surely loosen the pack-ice and allow the ship to make her way through into open water. However, this never happened, and on 25/26 May 1985 the ice pressure became much stronger and blocked any movement of the rudder or even of the propellors, so that the vessel was no longer manoeuverable. It should perhaps be explained that Russkaya is one of the most recent Antarctic bases to have been established, and rather little was known about weather and ice conditions in that area. Faced with the risk of drifting into an iceberg or experiencing severe pressure and being wrecked, the decision was taken to evacuate all but the minimum crew essential to run the Mikhail Somov. This was effected by helicopter to other Soviet ships at the ice-edge about 300 km away; there was the research vessel Academician Shirshov and the supply ship Pave! Korchagin. The Soviet research ship Mikhail Somov At the same time, Professor Izrael, in his capacity as Chairman of the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment, with the Marine Fleet Ministry, addressed the Soviet Government which agreed that an icebreaker should be sent down from the USSR to attempt to rescue the Mikhail Somov and her complement of crew and scientists. The vessel designated for this expedition was the Vladivostok, from the port of the same name on the Pacific seaboard of the USSR. The Vladivostok is a Finnish-built icebreaker of 13 250 tonnes displacement and 26 000 HP; these vessels of the Moskva class were the most powerful icebreakers in the Soviet Union until the arrival of the nuclear-powered giants such as the Lenin, but since the Antarctic Treaty bans the use of nuclear energy in the region, the latter were excluded. It was the first time that a ship of the type of Vladivostok would venture to cross the redoubtable 'roaring forties' and 'furious fifties', qnd tackle the Antarctic ice under winter conditions. In charge of the rescue mission was Dr A. N. Chilingarov, now Deputy Chairman of the USSR State Committee for Hydro meteorology and Control of the Natural Environment. Dr Chilingarov was born in Leningrad in 1939 and graduated from the High Marine Engineering School. At the Arctic observatory of Tiksy he worked on methods of navigation in ice, and in 1969 was made leader of the drifting 'ice island' station North Pole 19. After that he went south to take charge of the Antarctic base of Bellingshausen in the South Shetland Islands off the northern coast of the Antarctic 172 meteorology; geophysics; polar geography; physics of the ice and ocean. The main functions can be grouped under three headings: general scientific research in the polar context; expeditions and field studies; operational forecasting for high latitudes (polewards of 50"N and S). The overall programme includes the North Polar Experiment (covering the Arctic and northern Atlantic Oceans) and the Southern Oceans Programme. The ships also participate in the 'Sections' programme, studying the energetically-active zone of the Norwegian Sea. Altogether some 1500 people are working at the Institute. Professor T. G. Vangengeim developed a long-range forecast technique for Arctic regions based on macrocirculation features (westerly zonal flow, meridional flow and easterly incursions), prediction being from historical analogues. In January a forecast up to the end of the year is issued; it is adjusted in March in the light of the actual evolution, and again in June, August and October. These forecasts are found to be between 10 and 15 per cent more reliable than those based only on statistics, and they are considered to be of value for planning marine activities, mining operations and reindeer farming in the Arctic. As for the Antarctic, there are insufficient data to be able to use the macrocirculation technique for long-range forecasting, but deterministic forecasts for one to three days ahead are issued, and ways of extending the range up to ten days are under study. 0 Bi ... ~KM The Soviet Union's permanent stations in Antarctica. B = Bellingshausen; L = Leningradskaya; Mi = Mirnyy; Mo = Molodezhnaya; N = Novolazarevskaya; R = Russkaya; V= Vostok Icebound research ship rescued As the northern summer of 1984 drew to a close, the Soviet Union's fleet of polar scientific research vessels and supply ships left their home ports of Leningrad, Odessa and Vladivostok on their annual round trip to Antarctica. It was, in fact, the thirtieth Soviet Antarctic expedition, and as usual its primary object was to relieve and resupply the seven permanent bases maintained by the USSR. One of the last stations to be visited was Russkaya, on the coast of Lesser Antarctica in the region known as Marie Byrd Land at 74"46'S 136"51'W. The research vessel Mikhail Somov reached the vicinity of the base early in March 1985, and then became beset in close multi-year pack-ice, occasionally with considerable pressure. At first there did not seem to be any cause for concern; the hull of the Mikhail Somov was 171 spending each Saturday in the Institute itself, and moreover I have been directing seminars every Thursday evening. Luckily I enjoy very good health, because my activities do impose a heavy stress on the human frame. I am in the process of writing a new book on the scientific subjects that interest me most, and you will not be surprised to learn that short-period climatic fluctuations and the role of the ocean come top of the list. H. T. - Academician Marchuk, on behalf of readers of the WMO Bulletin, thank you very much indeed for having spared some of your precious time to give this interview. I hope that you will continue to enjoy the health and strength needed to shoulder your heavy responsibilities for a long time to come. USSR POLAR ACTIVITIES On the occasion of his visit to the USSR to interview Academician Marchuk, Dr Taba took the opportunity to speak to Dr B. Krutskikh, director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in Leningrad, which organizes the Soviet Union's scientific work in polar regions. He was also able to have a first-hand account of two rather dramatic incidents in Antarctica: from Dr A. N. Chilingarov, Deputy Chairman of the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment, on the rescue of the research ship Mikhail Somov, and from Dr P. G. Astakhov on a fire at the remote inland base of Vostok. The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute This was the first institute in the world to have been established to study natural sciences in the polar regions. It was founded in the 1920s thanks to the foresight and initiative of Vladimir Ilyitch Lenin. At first it was concerned almost exclusively with natural resources, and in particular reindeer husbandry and botany, but later became involved in glaciology, hydrometeorology. and geophysics. In 1932, the Institute organized a pioneering voyage by the icebreaker Siberiakov which demonstrated that navigation by the northern sea route was possible if enough information and experience was available to be able to forecast the weather and sea-ice. One of the main activities of the Institute at the present time is to improve and extend the prediction of sea-ice conditions; it is proving to be a very difficult task, tied in as it is with weather prediction. There is an inadequate station network, only partially offset by the recent advent of satellite surveillance. The Institute currently maintains seven permanent stations in Antarctica and two manned stations on drifting ice-floes in the Arctic Ocean. It possesses six research vessels: Mikhail Somov, Professor. Zubov, Professor Vize, Academician Shuleikin, Professor Multanovsky and Rudolf Samoilovich. A seventh is under construction in Finland which will be called Academician Fedorov. However, to fulfil its programmes the Institute is obliged to charter three or four additional ships to transport personnel and cargo to Antarctica. All these have to be specially strengthened for working in ice. Long-range aircraft are used quite widely; they are chartered from the Ministry for Civil Aviation. The Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute comes under the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and Control of the Natural Environment. It has departments on ice regimes and ice forecasts; long-range weather forecasts; 170 H. T. - What can you say about the impact of human activities on climate? G.I.M. -I cannot add anything to what has already been said and documented by other scientists working in that field. For me, the most important single factor is the increasing global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to industrial activities and the burning of fossil fuels in general, as well as deforestation which deprives us of a useful sink for the additional C02• Another thing to watch is the attenuation of the stratospheric ozone layer resulting from the increased emissions of chloroflurocarbons, because of course that alters the short-wave radiation transmissivity of the atmosphere. H. T. - How do you view the threats to the environment as a whole? G.I.M. -Nobody can deny that the greatest potential threat to the environment is a nuclear conflict, since this would likely destroy all forms of life. That being said, we must also realize that the environment can no longer support effluents from traditional industrial and energy-producing practices at their present level, so that it is imperative that the worst culprits in this respect be rapidly replaced by alternative clean processes. In 1985, the USSR allocated 2.5 billion roubles (approximately $US3.3 billion) for environmental protection. The problem of pollution is now a global one, and must be tackled on the basis of genuine international co-operation. H. T. - Could you please say something about the strategy for scientific and technological progress in the USSR? G.I.M. - This country is successfully accelerating economic development using its vast resources with prudence. Food and energy programmes are under implementation, and a comprehensive programme to boost the manufacture of consumer goods is nearing completion. We have embarked upon scientific and technological progress, where both the production and management functions are being automated. Computer technology and robotization are being introduced widely in all sectors of the national economy. The current qualitative reorganization of productive forces will enable us to move forward and reach a still higher labour efficiency. We aim to produce machines and materials of highest quality as a result of fundamentally new technological and manufacturing processes, but economists say that capital investment in modernizing existing enterprises gives between 50 and 100 per cent higher returns than when completely new plants are built. I would say that the main task at present is to acquire the skill to solve the most pressing problems quickly and effectively. Priority in basic research, timely availability of the latest developments in technology and their immediate utilization such is the triple task facing us today. Pure science comes into the picture in all spheres, but it is the applied areas which largely determine the scientific and technological potential and economic standing of the country. First and foremost in these areas I put power engineering in its broadest sense, because virtually every facet of modern life depends on it. As regards innovations in industry, I must mention new fields of biology, notably genetic and cellular engineering, immunology, microbiological synthesis and the production of physiologically-active substances; bioengineering is certainly on our agenda. But we are resolved that our tremendous programme of development shall not be at the expense of ecology and the conservation of nature; we shall exploit our natural resources sparingly and intelligently. H. T. - In your senior position, your responsibilities are mostly of an administrative nature. How do you reconcile this with your scientific interests? G.I.M. - It is true that I am nearly all the time in my office, or in someone else's, discussing matters of policy and administration. Nevertheless I make a point of 169 ocean circulation models and ultimately combined ocean-atmospheric models. The USSR's proposals in connection with the Sections programme have been discussed at a number of international meetings; in view of the fact that logistical and financial possibilities do not permit the desired observational system to be set up on a global basis, it was recommended that concerted efforts be made to organize regular observations in selected key areas, the energetically-active zones I was talking about. H. T. - I have heard that there are plans to divert some major rivers in the USSR. Can you tell me something about this ? G.I.M. -It is wrong to say that rivers would be diverted. This was never the intention. What is currently being studied is the feasibility and the environmental implications of drawing off part of the water-an amount within the range of natural fluctuations from one year to another-of rivers flowing north to the Arctic Ocean in order to irrigate certain potentially productive but perennially dry areas in Central Asia. We are approaching this question very carefully, and only when we are convinced of the overall soundness of the scheme shall we go ahead with it. H. T. - Are parts of the USSR subject to desertification? G.I.M. -Fortunately no, thanks to the farsightedness of scientists in Central Asia, and in particular the president of the Turkmenistan Academy of Sciences, Professor Agajan Geldievich Babaev. In fact, huge areas of land are being reclaimed from the deserts through carefully planned measures of reafforestation, regrassing and repopulation. H. T. - In your view, what are the prospects for long-range weather forecasting? G.I.M.- The ability to forecast for a month or a season ahead has got to be one of the primary objectives of the meteorological community, but we have to be realistic about it and explain to our governments and the public that this is something that cannot be achieved overnight; a great deal of painstaking research and experimentation will be required. From what I said about the Sections programme, you will see that the USSR has demonstrated its commitment to the objective through studies of atmosphere-ocean interaction, and in this connection we must rely on our colleagues in oceanography to reveal more about the mysteries surrounding oceanic circulations. As I say, it will be a difficult task, but one that will be well worth while. If we can forecast reliably for a month ahead, we shall be able to increase agricultural production by 30 per cent, and plan the rational use of energy, water supplies and capital investment. Although perhaps the economy of the Soviet Union is particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations, I am confident that all countries would profit handsomely from a long-range forecasting ability. H. T. - And how do you see the future as regards space-based observing systems ? G.I.M. -It is still not 30 years since the world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik-I, was launched by the Soviet Union, and yet the number of spacecraft of various kinds sent into near-Earth orbit since then must run into the thousands. These manned and unmanned satellites have had the effect ofliberating mankind from geocentric thinking, giving a new dimension to telecommunications and science. Certainly, meteorology has been the main beneficiary so far, and already one wonders how we managed before the space age. But the immense potentials of satellite techniques in other environmental disciplines are clearly perceived, and work is going on apace to realize them. Telescopes in space will undoubtedly open new doors in astrophysics, which in turn will benefit I science on Earth. In fact, in the USSR it is our firm intention in the long term to make platforms in space a profitable sector of the national economy. I- 168 I marked, regions we have called 'energetically-active zones', and it is these that are crucial in studying ocean-atmosphere interaction in the context of climatic fluctuations and long-range weather forecasting. That is why the Soviet Union has launched the 'Sections' programme in which five areas have been designated energetically-active zones, namely the Norwegian Sea, the western Atlantic east of the Island of Newfoundland, the Bermuda/Sargasso Sea region, an area of the tropical Atlantic near the mouth of the Amazon, and the Kuro Shio current region of the western Pacific. Mainly for practical and logistic reasons, the chosen zones are all in the northern hemisphere. H. T. - This sounds like a very ambitious project. G.I.M. - It is, and we are hoping for still more international participation. So far relatively little work has been done on the upper layer of the ocean, so we are placing arrays of ships at strategic locations to monitor physical and dynamic properties ofthe atmosphere and the ocean down to depths of 500 m, as well as heat fluxes across the air-sea interface. We shall study closely the evolution of sea-surface isotherm patterns and sea-air temperature differences. During one month in each season (February, May, August and November), intensive meteorological and oceanographic observations by ships and coastal land stations will be supplemented by upper-air soundings and data from radar, aircraft and satellites. A quite detailed plan was published in English by VINITI (Moscow) in 1984 as No. I in the Sections programme series. H. T. - What is the present situation regarding the Sections programme ? G.I.M. - The programme has been going on for five years now; other socialist countries have joined the USSR in placing ships in the energetically-active zones and conducting oceanographic investigations, for instance Bulgaria, Cuba and the German Democratic Republic. Obviously it has to be a long-term project. One of our paramount goals is to construct an integrated model of the circulations of the atmosphere and ocean, but first there is much to be done to accurately parameterize the physical processes. H.T. - How does the Sections programme fit in with WMO's World Climate Programme? G.I.M. - The principal objectives of the World Climate Research Programme are: (a) to determine the degree to which climate can be predicted, and (b) to identify the extent of mankind's influence on climate. In order to attain them, a multifaceted approach has been adopted, one of the most important thrusts being to develop physico-mathematical models of the climate system components (the atmosphere, oceans, ice and land surface), first individually and then combined. This implies a careful study of processes in these elements in order to parameterize and incorporate them in models. At the same time, one must decide on what are the data requirements and then design a rational observation system covering all the elements of the climate system. If the WCRP is primarily concerned with time scales ranging from weeks. to decades, we must nevertheless take account of the ensemble of properties of individual weather systems on smaller time scales, the day-to-day evolution of a synoptic-scale disturbance, for example. Similarly for the space scales: primary attention in the WCRP is given to regional- and global-scale features, but the small-scale processes are also recognized as playing a significant role in climate. Understanding these processes and parameterizing their effects constitute the central thread of WCRP activities. This brings me to the question of air-sea interaction, which, as everyone realizes, is a crucial factor. The WCRP has an ocean component in which attention is turned to developing 167 H. T. - After successfully defending your thesis, what did you do next? G.I.M. -I was invited to work in the field of atomic energy, and spent the next ten years at the Physico-energetics Institute in Obninsk, taking part in designing and constructing nuclear reactors for power stations. In 1956 I defended my doctorate thesis which was on numerical methods in designing nuclear reactors. However, this spell at Obninsk made me realize that my real interests lay beyond the confines of nuclear energy, and in 1962 I willingly accepted an invitation by Academician Mikhail Alekseivich Lavn'mtiev, then president of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences, to go and organize a computer centre at Novosibirsk. The purpose of the centre was to help solve major problems related to developing science and industry in Siberia. Among other things, we advanced the theory of conjugate equations and perturbation algorithms to apply to problems with linear and quasi-linear operators, studied difference and variation-difference methods in mathematical physics, disjunction and iteration methods. The Novosibirsk computer centre of the Siberian Branch of the Academy of Sciences has one of the largest computer science and data-processing facilities anywhere, and with numerous scientists in various specialized fields interacting with one another, the atmosphere was very good and highly stimulating. H. T. - With this computer centre you were able to return to problems of atmospheric dynamics? G.I.M. - Rather problems of the atmosphere and oceans. On the practical side, we developed a primitive-equation model for short-range weather prediction which had a considerable impact on NWP methods. What was also a notable contribution was the splitting method we devised for solving the complex system of hydro-/thermodynamics equations describing the baroclinic atmosphere. This led me to try making a baroclinic model of an ocean circulation, and in due course we could state the problem of air-sea interaction. In this we were often in contact with Professor Joe Smagorinsky's group at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in the USA which was working in similar fields. What was perhaps one of our most important results, and one which is only now beginning to be widely taken up by scientists, is the conjugate equation of atmospheric processes that takes the state of the ocean into account. This can bring us close to the problem of the sensitivity of the atmosphere to any sort of external forcing. We went on to develop a complete theory along these lines which became the basis for research in the Soviet Union into small-scale and complex atmospheric and oceanic processes. H. T. - I presume that in your capacity as chairman of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology you are responsible for co-ordinating research throughout the country? G.I.M. - That is so, and it includes work carried out under the auspices of governmental institutions such as the Hydrometeorological Service, the Academy of Sciences and universities. The conferences, symposia and seminars we organize are normally a major combined effort. H. T. - How many people work at the computer centre at Novosibirsk? G.I.M. - Altogether there must be some 800 people, and of these about 150 are working in fields connected with the atmosphere or the oceans. They are all university graduates, many having a doctorate or a Kandidat degree. For me, the work I find most absorbing and which seems to me to have the greatest importance for rese'arch in climate and long-range forecasting is the exchange of energy between the oceans and the atmosphere. As you know, there are certain sea areas where this exchange is particularly 166 sciences. As member of a large number of scientific associations and serving on the editorial boards of numerous Soviet and foreign journals, M archuk contributed much to forging friendly and cultural ties between scientists in the USSR and those from other countries. Honorary doctorates were conferred on him by many universities, and he is foreign member of several scientific academies. In recognition of the services Academician Marchuk had rendered to the development of science and technology, he was made a Hero of Socialist Labour in 1975, and it was in 1980 that he was appointed deputy chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers and chairman of the State Committee for Science and Technology. Academician Marchuk's first direct contact with WMO was in 1964 when he attended a WMO!IUGG symposium on research and development aspects of long-range forecasting, held at Boulder (USA), where he gave a lecture entitled 'A new approach to the numerical solution of differential equations of atmospheric processes'. Towards the end of 1965, at a WMO regional training seminar in Moscow on numerical weather prediction, he gave a series of lectures on 'numerical methods for solving weather prediction and climate theory problems'. In 1979 he attended the World Climate Conference in Geneva and delivered a paper entitled: 'Modelling of climatic change and the problem of long-range weather forecasting'. In spite of his multiple and heavy responsibilities, Gurii Marchuk is a sociable and cheerful person, full of energy and optimism. He is keen and willing to help solve whatsoever problems come his way. We are extremely grateful to Academician Marchukfor having spared the time to give this interview, and offer him our best wishes in his new assignment as President ofthe USSR Academy of Sciences. H. T. - Academician Marchuk, if you have read other interviews in the WMO Bulletin, you will know that we like to give them a personal flavour. Therefore please would you start by telling me something about your childhood and education ? G.I.M. -My parents were both schoolteachers, and I was born on 8 June 1925 at a place not far from Buzuluk in the Orenburg steppes which extend westwards from the southern Urals. I completed my secondary education near Saratov, and then went to the Leningrad State University, graduating in 1949. I continued doing postgraduate studies there for a time, but in 1950 transferred to the Geophysical Institute of the Academy of Sciences where I studied under the guidance of Professor Ilya Afanasevich Kibel, who made outstanding contributions to dynamic meteorology, formulating the first scheme for numerical weather prediction. At first my principal field had been mathematical physics, but under the influence of Professor Kibel I developed a keen interest in dynamic meteorology. The subject of my Kandidat thesis was the dynamics of large-scale atmospheric processes, rather along the lines of an article published about that time by Jule Charney; I discussed one of the first baroclinic models of the atmosphere and the dynamics of wave processes. The work gave me much satisfaction and confirmed my predilection for dynamic meteorology. H. T. - Professor Rossby organized an important symposium on numerical weather prediction at the International Meteorological Institute of Stockholm University in 1957. Did you attend it? G.I.M. - I remember about that symposium. Some scientists from the Soviet Union did go to it, but I was not present myself. However, some time later, at the invitation of Professor Bolin, I visited Stockholm for about a month to study problems in meteorology, mathematics and computer science. 165 The USSR has the world's largest reserves of coal, iron ore, manganese, apatite, asbestos, as well as gold and other precious and semi-precious minerals. Enormous petroleum deposits have been discovered in arctic regions, together with the greatest known reserves of natural gas in the world. With 280 million inhabitants, the Soviet Union has the third largest population in the world after China and India. There are 130 different languages spoken, and five different alphabets used. Nowadays Russian is the most widespread; over 82 per cent of the population are fluent in it. The USSR is a federation of 15 union republics (Soviet socialist republics) which are each a sovereign state. By far the largest is the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, covering more than three quarters of the area of the USSR and containing more than half the total population. Nevertheless two others, the Byelorussian SSR and the Ukranian SSR, were also founder-Members of the United Nations Organization. The Supreme Soviet of the USSR comprises two chambers: the Soviet of the Union and the Soviet a/Nationalities. Each has 750 delegates and each has equal power to initiate legislation, although to become law a bill must be accepted by a simple majority in both chambers. The Council of Ministers is the highest executive and administrative body. When Dr H. Taba went to Moscow in June 1986 for this interview, Academician Gurii Ivanovich Marchuk was deputy chairman ofthe Council a/Ministers and chairman of the State Committee for Science and Technology. Subsequently, on 16 October 1986 Academician Marchuk was elected to the prestigious office of President of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Having graduated from the Leningrad State University in 1949, Marchuk successfully defended his Kandidat thesis (on the dynamics of large-scale fields of meteorological elements in the baroclinic atmosphere) in 1952. However, he achieved international fame through his doctorate thesis, subsequently published as a book, which was on numerical methods in the design of nuclear reactors. In 1962 he moved to Novosibirsk where, under the aegis ofthe Siberian Branch ofthe Academy a/Sciences, he built up a large computer centre that started functioning in 1964. Under his direction, the centre undertook intensive research in computer mathematics and its application to numerous scientific and technological problems. He developed a theory of conjugate equations and perturbation algorithms for problems with linear and quasi-linear differential operators, and made other highly significant studies in pure mathematics and mathematical physics. He never lost his interest in the atmosphere and its processes, and applied his new techniques in constructing a closed system of equations describing atmospheric hydro and thermodynamics in an overall system of quasi-linear equations for the combined dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean. He also turned his attention to modelling environmental consequences of anthropogenic sources of pollution. His current field of work is the critically important role of the ocean in short-term climatic variations. Marchuk was awarded the Lenin Prize in 1961, and the following year was elected Corresponding Member of the USSR Academy of Sciences, becoming full Member in 1968. He served in turn as vice-president and president of the Siberian Branch, and later as vice-president of the (all-union) Academy of Sciences. In 1967 and again in 1971 he was awarded the Order of Lenin for outstanding scientific and administrative services, and in 1979, as one of a team df authors, he received the USSR State Prize for work on developing and applying methods of statistical modelling. At the Novosibirsk State University, Academician Marchuk was head ofthe faculties of mathematical methods, computer mathematics and dynamic meteorology. Students of his included more than 40 Kandidats and ten doctorates in physico-mathematical 164 THE BULLETIN INTERVIEWS: Academician G. I. Marchuk The territory of the USSR spans eleven time zones (150 degrees oflongitude). When the summer sun is setting in its westernmost regions, a new day has already dawned in the far east. In area, the Soviet Union is smaller than Africa, but larger than South America and three times the size of Australia. The 2000-kilometre chain of the Urals at about 60'E is regarded as separating the European from the Asian part of the nation. A treeless plain characterized by permafrost, the tundra, occupies the far north; southward from about the Arctic Circle this gives way to a wide forest belt, at first only conifers (the taiga), but then becoming mixed forests in which birch, maple, lime and oak predominate. Beyond this zone there is a curious blend of northern and southern flora and fauna in eastern regions, but in the west the forests give way to the grassy plains known as steppes. Academician Gurii Marchuk Photo: Joint Institute for Nuclear Research!Yu. Tumanov There are numerous lakes and inland seas, the largest being the Caspian Sea (371 000 km2). Lake Baikal (30 500 km2) is the greatest sheet offresh water in Eurasia and the deepest lake in the world (1620 m); indeed, it contains one-fifth of the world's total surface fresh water. In addition there are some 1000 man-made reservoirs. Whilst the greatest rivers are found in the Asian part of the USSR (the Irtysh-Ob system, with a length of 5410 km, ranks fifth longest in the world), in the European part a network of canals has been built linking the major rivers to form a single waterway system connecting the Baltic with the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. The temperature extremes encountered at places in the Soviet Union, especially east of the Urals, are notorious: Oymyakon in the Yakutskaya Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic has a monthly mean temperature which ranges from +14.5'C in July to -50.l'C in January, the recorded extremes being+33'C and -7l'C. At Ashkhabad in Turkmenistan, the extremes are +4rC and -26'C. Mean annual precipitation ranges from 2504 mm at Batumi on the Black Sea to 89 mm at Chimbay, near the Aral Sea*. * Statistics taken from World Survey of Climatology, Volume 7- Climates of the Soviet Union, by P. W. LYDOLPH. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company (1976). 163 The Tenth World Meteorological Congress (4-29 May 1987) and the thirty-ninth session of the Executive Council (1-5 June 1987) both took place after this issue went to press. Therefore a report on these major events must await the next issue of the WMO Bulletin. However, arrangements could be made for the list on the inside front cover page of this number to reflect the new composition of the Executive Council. A modern weather forecasting service without the benefit of satellite data is almost unthinkable. But there continues to be a requirement for detailed observations from a wide network of points on the ground. Therefore manned observing stations in some of the least hospitable parts of the world have to be relieved and resupplied regularly. This may be a hazardous, uncomfortable and financially onerous exercise, but most of those actually taking part would admit to enjoying an exciting and supremely satisfying experience. Normally the programmes run on without a hitch from one year to the next, but accidents do happen, and, in the context of the Antarctic winter, can become dramatic. Two examples are described in the article starting on page 170. Academician Gurii Marchuk, whose interview starts on the opposite page, created an advanced computer centre at Novosibirsk and pioneered the application of numerical techniques to diverse problems affecting Central Asia. He had long been convinced of the importance of air-sea interactions in long-range prediction and in understanding climatic variability. In fact, the USSR's 'Sections' programme to study energy exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean in certain key areas is largely his brain-child. One cannot fail to be impressed by Academician Marchuk's all-round perspicacity. The annual overview of climatic events throughout the world on page 176 was prepared in the World Climate Programme Department and covers the period December 1985 to November 1986. The October issue will contain the summary of reports from Member countries about unusual weather events during 1986. It appears that a slight to moderate El Nifio had reached a mature phase at the end of the year, so that the short history of this phenomenon by Roberto Jimenez on page 184 is apposite. Elsewhere in this number will be found two contributions each marking a fiftieth anniversary (that of the Irish Meteorological Service and that of the Hydrometeorological Service of the Mongolian People's Republic); an original account of enthusiasts in the USA who go to great lengths to record on film the spectacular convective storms that occur over the Great Plains; reports of the ninth sessions of the Regional Association for Africa and the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology; a report of the important WMO/Unesco hydrological conference and a note on WMO's role in connection with protection from the consequences of nuclear power station accidents. Cover picture: The Soviet icebreaker Vladivostok in action during her rescue mission to Antarctica Photo: Goskomgidromet 162 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION SECRETARY-GENERAL: JULY 1987 G. 0. P. OBASI Vol. 36 N° 3 DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL D. K. SMITH 162 In this issue 163 The Bulletin interviews: Academician G. I. Marchuk The official journal of the 170 USSR polar activities World Meteorological 176 The global climate system in 1986 Organization 184 El Nino - A historical background Published quarterly 186 The Irish Meteorological Service's golden jubilee (January, April, July, October) in English, 188 The Mongolian Hydrometeorological Service's French, Russian, and golden jubilee Spanish editions 190 Sea-level monitoring in the south-west Indian Ocean 193 Storm-chasing in the USA Subscription rates · (including postage by 198 Commission for Agricultural Meteorology - surface mail): Ninth session, Madrid, November 1986 I year: Sw. fr. 48.-; 200 Regional Association for Africa - Ninth session, 2 years: Sw. fr. 78.-; Harare, December 1 986 3 years: Sw. fr. 109.-. 203 Hydrology and scientific bases of water resources Supplement of 37 0 per cent management - WMO/Unesco conference, for dispatch by airmail Geneva, March 1987 205 Convention on early notification of a nuclear Remittances and all otber accident - Meteorological and hydrological aspects correspondence about the WMO programme actrvities WMO Bulletin should be addressed to : 207 World Weather Watch The Secretary-General 210 Instruments and methods of observation World Meteorogical 211 World Climate Applications Programme Organization Case postale No. 5 211 World Climate Data Programme CH-1211 Geneva 20 213 World Climate Research Programme Switzerland 215 Weather prediction research Extracts from unsigned 215 Tropical meteorology research articles ~n the WMO 215 Weather modification research Bulletin may be reproduced 215 Environmental pollution provided the customary acknowledgement is made. 216 Agricultural meteorology and desertification Requests to publish signed 219 Meteorology and ocean affairs articles (in part or in 222 Hydrology and water resources whole) should be addressed to the Secretary 226 Education and training General 230 Technical co-operation 235 News and notes Signed contributions do not necessarily represent the 237 Calendar of coming events views of the Organization 238 News from the Secretariat Editor: R. Czelnai 240 Reviews 246 Members of the World Meteorological Organization Assistant Editor: 247 Selected list of WMO publications R. M. 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