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Film Industry Drivers: Overseas Markets and Platforms

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Film Industry Drivers: Overseas Markets and Platforms 2H17 Outlook Media Film industry drivers: Overseas markets and platforms Jeong-yeob Park +822-3774-1652 [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] 3 I. 2016-1H17 review 5 II. Outlook 7 III. Key issues 26 IV. Valuation overview and investment strategy 31 V. Top picks 32 CJ CGV, J Contentree [Summary] Overseas theaters > overseas content > domestic theaters > domestic content Key film market variables Market size Competition Overseas opportunities Cross-platform Movie Theater chain Distributors Distributors Ticket prices Ancillary rights (theater operation Theater operators attendance operators (investors) (content) vs. other) Three-year trends ↗ →↑ ↗ ↑→ ↑ ↑ Expected future trends ↗ → ↗ →↑↗ ↑ ↘↗ Impact on theater +-△△ +- +△ operators Impact on distributors +-+△ -+△△ <Ticket prices> <Theater operators> <Theater operators> - Shift in box office growth driver to prices from - Aggressive screen additions by some theater chain - Resumption of growth for China’s film quantity (attendance) operators (e.g., Megabox) have yet to lead to greater market likely to boost growth - Growing revenue contributions from premium market competition. prospects for global film markets screens and concessions - Key growth drivers: Premiumization of <Distributors> theaters in developed markets and <Movie attendance> - Global direct distributors’ full-fledged investments in Korea; attendance increases in emerging - Limited upside/downside to attendance continued strong box office of big-budget films markets Notes - Overall uptrend in production costs market <Ancillary rights> competition to heat up. <Content> - Ancillary rights alone are not a major factor affecting - Heightened uncertainties over China- theater operators’ growth, as their impact is largely <Competition across platforms> bound content exports (co-production) limited to content businesses - Global OTT players’ original content expansion poses a - Dissipation of THAAD concerns is - Ancillary business growth is positive to distribution threat to global theater operators over the longer term amid unlikely in the near term; we advise (investment) firms, as it allows for diversification into shortening theatrical windows caution on distributors (investors) in low-budget films - Pre-production licensing agreements to help reduce risks the near term and boost revenue positive for distributors (investors) - We are positive on distributors over the longer term Note: “+” is positive, “ᇞ” is neutral, and ”-“ is negative Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2H17 Outlook [Media] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research [Summary] Overseas theaters > overseas content > domestic theaters > domestic content Key to profit growth (Wbn) 250 Domestic Domestic Domestic Domestic Domestic Domestic Domestic B0: +6.5% BO: +17.7% BO: +6.8% BO: +7.2% BO: +3.2% BO: +1.4% BO: +5.6% Attendance: Attendance: Attendance: Attendance: Attendance: Attendance: Attendance: +2.9% +7.4% +21.5% +9.9% +0.8% +1.0% +0.2% ATP: +2.6% ATP: -0.8% ATP: -3.2% ATP: +2.8% ATP: +6.3% ATP: +2.2% ATP: +1.6% Key factors (ex-domestic theaters) 200 CJ CGV CJ CGV CJ CGV CJ CGV CJ CGV CJ CGV CJ CGV Strong performance - CJ CGV: Overseas, 4DX growth Entry into Start of Screen X Management Absorption of Entry into Turkey in three major markets - J Contentree: Broadcasting, IP Vietnam consolidated launch of Blitz Blitz into the (acquisition of (Korea, China, Turkey); investments (acquisition of site (Indonesia) CGV Mars) improvement in parent Megastar) openings in China NEW brand profitability 150 4DX launch Start of ancillary J Contentree rights distribution J Contentree Liquidation of J Contentree (Contents Panda) Acquisition of magazine Keys to maximizing domestic Acquisition of remaining stake business theater earnings JoongAng M&B in Megabox J Contentree 100 Growing profit contribution from - CJ CGV: Cost controls multiplex business; - J Contentree: Site openings Showbox Start of IP investments Establishment NEW of Showbox Showbox, NEW Start of music China Delays to Showbox, NEW 50 business China-bound Improving investor sentiment Keys to content exports and overseas (Music & NEW) NEW content exports/ on expectations for China- Establishment of Chinese co- bound content exports and co-productions joint venture with productions co-productions - Showbox: Preserving domestic M/S + Huace Chinese co-productions 0 - NEW: Domestic business diversification + Chinese co-productions CJ CGV parent + Megabox (domestic theaters) CJ CGV + J Contentree (theaters) * Combined operating profit -50 Showbox + NEW + CJ E&M (content) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2H17 Outlook [Media] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2016-1H17: Stability in Korea, sluggishness in China Stable domestic • W2.3tr (+7.6%) in total film revenue; box office of W1.7tr (-1.6%); 217mn admissions (-0.1%) operations vs. lowered • Domestic movie theaters: New site openings weighed on profitability. • Domestic content: Continuous outperformance by big-budget films; although only one film broke the 10mn expectations for China- admissions mark, total attendance remained stable. bound content exports • Overseas theaters: Dwindling box-office revenue in China and Turkey (amid political uncertainties) led to margin erosion and share price losses for CJ CGV. • Overseas content: Overseas content revenue hit a 10-year peak, on robust exports of Train to Busan, but share prices of relevant companies fell on deteriorating investor sentiment amid THAAD worries. Relative share performances of Korea’s film-related companies Highest-grossing films of 2016 and audience share CJ CGV (p) Release Revenue Attendance J Contentree Rank Title Distributors 160 Deteriorating sentiment on date (Wbn) (mn persons) (%) content players due to concerns over Showbox 1 Train to Busan NEW 7/20 93 11.6 5.3 THAAD backlash NEW 2 A Violent Prosecutor Showbox 2/03 77 9.7 4.4 140 3 Captain America: Civil War Walt Disney 4/27 73 8.7 4.2 4 The Age of Shadows Warner Bros. 907 61 7.5 3.5 120 5 Tunnel Showbox 8/10 58 7.1 3.3 Content exports 6 Operation Chromite CJ E&M 7/27 55 7.0 3.2 to China expected 7 Luck-Key Showbox 10/13 56 7.0 3.2 100 to rebound 8 The Wailing 20th Century Fox 5/12 56 6.9 3.2 80 CJ E&M 17% Lotte Ent. 60 Other 8% 53% NEW 9% Showbox 40 13% 1/16 3/16 5/16 7/16 9/16 11/16 1/17 3/17 5/17 Note: 1/1/16 = 100p Source: KOFIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| 2H17 Outlook [Media] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 2016-1H17: Stability in Korea, sluggishness in China China’s film market • China’s film market slump in 2016 was attributable to: 1) disappointing box-office results for Hollywood movies; stumbled in 2016 and 2) subsidy cuts for online ticket booking. • In 2015-16, global revenue for the top-five Hollywood films dropped by a hefty 33.2%, due mainly to their sluggish box-office performances in China. • Subsidies for online ticket booking (nearly RMB5bn in 2015), which drove China’s box-office growth in 2015, ended in 2H16. Sharp decline in China’s box-office growth in 2016 Changes in Chinese online ticketing sites’ M/S (RMBbn) (%) Maoyan (Beijing Enlight, etc.) Nuomi (Baidu) WePiao (Tencent, etc.) Taobao (Alibaba, etc.) 80 China box office (L) 70 (%) Rebound expected in 2017 Dianping Other YoY (R) 1) Robust Hollywood lineup 100 4.3 70 2) Eased import quota 60 9.4 3) Growth in tier-3/4 cities 15.7 60 50 80 9.6 18.6 50 10.3 40 60 40 11.2 30 30.0 30 40 Sharp slowdown in growth in 2016 20 20 1) Decline in online ticket booking subsidies 50.1 2) Weak Hollywood lineup 20 32.9 10 10 0 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F2018F 2015 2016 Source: CBOO, ENT Group, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: BigData-Research China, iMedia, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| 2H17 Outlook [Media] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Outlook: 1) Sustained domestic market growth Ample upside to ticket • For 2017, Korea’s ticket price growth is forecast to range from 2% (unadjusted) to 10% (adjusted), while prices; Solid attendance attendance growth is projected to be around 3%. • Korea ranks first in terms of annual admissions per capita; however, domestic movie attendance growth has lost levels steam over the past three years (+0.6% per year). • January-April 2017 cumulative attendance grow 6.8% YoY. • With a number of highly anticipated films slated for release in 2H, we are upbeat on Korea’s attendance growth in the near term. Box-office growth driver has shifted from admissions to ticket prices Annual admissions per capita (%) 25 Korea: 4.3, US: 3.9, Australia: 3.8, ATP YoY France: 3.1, the UK: 2.7, Admissions YoY Germany: 1.7 Japan: 1.3, China: Box office YoY 20 0.9, Turkey: 0.8 15 10 5 0 -5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F Source: KOFIC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7| 2H17 Outlook [Media] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Outlook: 1) Sustained domestic market growth Ample upside to ticket prices; Solid attendance levels • We still see ample upside to ticket prices, in light of film market and ticket price trends in other countries. Ticket price vs. 2017 Big Mac Index • Going forward, major theater operators are unlikely to engage in 14 (ATP, US$) competition; price hikes should materialize almost simultaneously. Denmark Sweden 12 UK Japan Australia 10 Netherlands
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