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Film/Broadcast Content the Increasing Role of “Tentpoles” in the Content Industry

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Film/Broadcast Content the Increasing Role of “Tentpoles” in the Content Industry Film/Broadcast Content The increasing role of “tentpoles” in the content industry The need for tentpoles in the content industry Overweight (Maintain) The content industry and a tent have one thing in common: both need a tentpole to support the entire structure. In the content industry, tentpoles are defined as hit titles Industry Report that provide a source of steady cash flow, such as the blockbuster films of movie studios July 27, 2015 and the top-rated programs of TV networks. The content industry is vulnerable to the success or failure of a title as well as changes in seasonality. Establishing a tentpole by investing around 70% of the annual budget on Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. just one or two projects could prove an effective strategy against such risks. If tentpole [Telecom Service / Media] films or shows become a hit, they can compensate for losses made elsewhere. Creating a long-term tentpole lineup, increasing the number of tentpoles, and being able to predict Jee-hyun Moon future revenue can lead to a structural improvement in the business. In other words, +822-768-3615 tentpoles can make the content industry more predictable. [email protected] Tentpole strategies used in the film distribution and broadcasting industries The tentpole strategy is primarily used in the film distribution and broadcasting industries. A major proponent of the strategy is Walt Disney, which plans its five-year release lineup based on its Disney and Marble Comics franchises. The media giant has recently seen its film profits steadily grow after releasing a string of successful tentpole movies every quarter. We believe Korean film distributors are also beginning to follow this strategy. Similar moves have also been seen in the broadcasting industry’s programming trends. A notable example is CJ E&M, which has built its Friday night entertainment shows into its tentpoles. The company has also been moving to increase its tentpoles on a weekday, quarterly, and channel basis. 2015 earnings to confirm growth opportunities In 2015, we expect major domestic film and broadcast content companies to deliver YoY earnings improvements, backed by the release of a number of tentpole films in 2H and continued cost control. The growth of the content rights distribution market should also prove favorable to profit margins. In 2H, we expect to see more foreign co-productions, as well as more localized content offerings overseas via newly established subsidiaries in China and several other countries. Overweight on film/broadcast content; Top pick is CJ E&M We believe the increasing adoption of the tentpole strategy is making film and broadcast content a more predictable and investable sector. We present CJ E&M as our top pick in the sector. We upgrade our rating on J Contentree to Buy (from Trading Buy) and initiate coverage on movie investors/distributors Showbox and Next Entertainment World (NEW). A look at the film/broadcasting industry through the tentpole lens Business Geographical Lineup structure expansion <Films> Cash-cow Better domestic Box-office hits stability profit margins <Broadcasting> Rising stars Stronger growth in Top programs Growth China and SE Asia Profit leverage Balanced growth of Growth opportunities Stable cash flow business portfolio overseas Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. July 27, 2015 Film/Broadcast Content CONTENTS I. The role of “tentpoles” in the content industry 3 1. What do tentpoles mean for the content industry? 3 2. Need for tentpoles in the content industry 4 II. Tentpoles in the film distribution industry 5 1. Concerns about the Korean film market 5 2. Hollywood cases 7 3. Growth opportunities for Korean films 9 III. Tentpoles in the broadcasting industry 12 1. Broadcasters taking a tentpole strategy in programming 12 2. Snowball effect of tentpoles 13 IV. Earnings forecast 14 1. Turnaround 14 2. Growth opportunities 15 3. Major lineup for 2H 17 V. Investment strategy and valuation 19 1. Investment strategy and key considerations 19 2. Comparison with global peers 20 Key Recommendations 21 CJ E&M (130960 KQ) 22 J Contentree (036420 KQ) 28 Showbox (086980 KQ) 32 Next Entertainment World (160550 KQ) 37 KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 July 27, 2015 Film/Broadcast Content I. The role of “tentpoles” in the content industry 1. What do tentpoles mean for the content industry? Tentpoles are playing an increasingly important role in the film and broadcasting industry. In the content industry, the term refers to hit titles that provide a source of steady cash flow, such as the blockbuster films of movie studios and the top-rated programs of TV networks (analogous to Samsung’s Galaxy smartphone models in the manufacturing sector). Let us imagine a film studio or TV network is planning 10 projects for the year; in that case, a tentpole strategy would be to concentrate 70-80% of the annual budget on just one or two projects, as opposed to allocating 10% of the budget to each project. This can be an effective strategy because the success of a single title can have an outsized impact, potentially compensating for losses made elsewhere. As tentpole content determines producers’ annual earnings, the presence of long-term tentpole lineups can make the content industry more predictable. In addition, increasing the number of tentpole titles would signal that a producer is increasing its investments and business scale. Although risks could also grow, such a strategy should ease earnings uncertainties/volatility, assuming the projects have a reasonable expectation of success. Building tentpoles into lineups is widespread among Hollywood film studios, with many studios even presenting five-year tentpole lineups; examples include The Avengers series by Disney’s Marvel Studios, Warner Bros. Entertainment’s superhero-themed movies (e.g., Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman), and 21st Century Fox’s Fantastic Four and X-Men series. Korean movie studios are also building tentpoles into their lineups. For example, CJ E&M released The Admiral: Roaring Currents and Ode to My Father last year and plans to release Veteran and Himalayas this year. The company also has tentpole shows for its broadcast business, including Superstar K, Three Meals a Day, and the Reply series. Showbox’s tentpoles are Kundo: Age of the Rampant (2014), Assassination (2015), and The Throne (2015). And NEW’s tentpoles are Haemoo (2014), Northern Limit Line (2015), and The Great Tiger (2015). Figure 1. Key programs/movies hold up the content business, similar to how a pole supports a tent Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 July 27, 2015 Film/Broadcast Content 2. Need for tentpoles in the content industry The tentpole concept can be applied not only to product lineups but also to business portfolios and target markets. Expanding (in both quantitative and qualitative terms) tentpole products, tentpole business areas, and tentpole markets can improve content producers’ fundamentals. 1) Product lineups Tentpoles are projects that are highly likely to succeed. Even if other projects fare poorly, the success of a tentpole is likely to offset losses made elsewhere. For CJ E&M, gains on last year’s movie tentpoles—The Admiral: Roaring Currents and Ode to My Father—offset losses on No Tears for the Dead and Make Your Move. The same is true for the broadcast business; CJ E&M operates 18 channels, and though not all of them are believed to be in the black, the channel tvN is serving as a tentpole. Specifically, top-rated shows such as Superstar K and Three Meals a Day are generating high advertising revenue, offsetting losses on other shows. 2) Business structure In terms of business portfolio, tentpoles are a major cash cow, and the strong cash flow they generate enable content producers to expand into other business areas. As for J Contentree, the core magazine unit does not generate good cash flow, and in fact barely breaks even. On the other hand, subsidiary Megabox (whose earnings are reflected in consolidated financial statements) generates an annual OP margin of 17% and contributes the most to net profit attributable to controlling interests. J Contentree plans to increase its stake in Megabox from 46% to 98% in August, using proceeds from a rights offering. 3) Market expansion For Korean companies, the domestic market is a tentpole market. However, it should be noted that China is fast becoming another key business area. Considering its huge size and strong growth potential, we believe the Chinese market could become a new tentpole market. Figure 2. A tentpole strategy helps ensure sustainable business through risk management Business Geographical Lineup structure expansion <Films> Cash-cow Better domestic Box-office hits stability profit margins <Broadcasting> Rising stars Stronger growth in Top programs Growth China and SE Asia Profit leverage Balanced growth of Growth opportunities Stable cash flow business portfolio overseas Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 4 July 27, 2015 Film/Broadcast Content II. Tentpoles in the film distribution industry 1. Concerns about the Korean film market In quantitative terms, the Korean film market has been emerging as one of the strongest local markets, with annual admissions exceeding 200mn. In addition, shares of CJ CGV have recently hit a new high. Yet, concerns about the market have surfaced recently due to the following factors. 1) Weak performance in 1H First, from a short-term perspective, the Korean film market slowed in 1H. The number of moviegoers decreased by 2% YoY in 1H, and reached just 44% of the full-year 2014 figure. Although the decline was partly due to the MERS outbreak, the number of moviegoers has in fact been stagnant since reaching the 200mn mark in 2013, and per capita annual theater attendance has already reached four, near the world’s highest level.
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