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Current and Forecasted Climate Change Impacts in Mediterranean Forests Adapting to Global Change Mediterranean Forests Adaptación al cambio global Los bosques mediterráneos Adaptation au changement global Les forêts méditerranéennes Pedro Regato Adapting to Global Change Mediterranean Forests Page 1 Adaptación al cambio global Los bosques mediterráneos Página 79 Adaptation au changement global Les forêts méditerranéennes Page 159 Adapting to Global Change Mediterranean Forests Pedro Regato The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Spanish Agency for Cooperation and Development (AECID), IUCN, WWF or FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the Spanish Agency for Cooperation and Development (AECID), IUCN, WWF or FAO. IUCN and other participating organizations disclaim any errors or omissions in the translation of this document from the original version in English into Spanish and French. This publication has been made possible by funding from the Spanish Agency for International Cooperation and Development (AECID). Published by: IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Malaga, Spain Co-edited by: IUCN, WWF and FAO Copyright: © 2008 International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Citation: Regato, Pedro. 2008. Adapting to Global Change: Mediterranean Forests. Malaga, Spain: IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation. ii+254 pp. Report Collaborators: Mokadem Aissa; Nora Berrahmouni; Cassandra Brooke; Miguel Bughalo; Jose Antonio Carreira; Froylan Castaneda; Marco Conedera; Bruno Fady; Christos Giannakopoulos; Paul Grigoriev; Dionisia Hatzilacou; Lourdes Hernández; Habib Kachouri; Sedat Kalem; Petros Kakouros; Nikolaos Kasimis; R. Alexander Kastl; Zoi Katsioti; Mouna Khaznadar; Hala Kilani; Constantinos Liarikos; Giannis Mahairas; Tahar Mahdid; Nera Markovic; Alexa Morrison; Henry Neufeldt; Tuncay Neyisci; Aristotelis Papageorgiou; João Pinho; Kalliopi Radoglou; Ioannis Raftogiannis; Francisco Rego; Beatrice Riche; Carole Saint-Laurent; Rami Salman; Christoph Stein; Aram Ter-Zakaryan; Alejandro Valdecantos; Daniel Vallauri; Theoharis Zagkas; Katalin Zaim; Draganica Zaja. ISBN: 978-2-8317-1098-3 Translation/revision: Simon Beswetherick, Nora Berrahmouni, Isabel Moyano, Martin Paulin, Pedro Regato, Rami Salman, Alexandra Salmon-Lefranc. Legal Deposit: Design by: Chadi Abi Faraj Cover photo: Pedro Regato Produced by: IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation Printed by: Solprint, Mijas (Malaga), Spain Available from: IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation C/ Marie Curie 35 29590 Campanillas, Malaga, Spain Tel: +34 952 028430 - Fax: +34 952 028145 http://www.iucn.org/publications This book is printed on paper Index Preface ................................................................................................. 5 1- Introduction ................................................................................... 7 2- Global Warming Trends .................................................................... 9 Current Evidences of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region .................................................................... 10 Predicted Climate Change Trends in the Mediterranean Region .................................................................... 14 3- What Can We Learn from Past Climate Changes to Tackle Future Changes? ..................................................... 19 Species Migration Responding to Past Climate Changes .......... 19 Species In Situ Adaptation to Past Climate Changes .......... 24 4- Current and Forecasted Climate Change Impacts in Mediterranean Forests .................................................................... 27 Ecological Changes .................................................................... 27 Large-Scale Forest Fires ...................................................... 33 Forest Dieback .................................................................... 36 Forest Pests .................................................................................. 36 Invasive Species .................................................................... 36 5- Adaptation to Climate Change ...................................................... 39 What is Adaptation? .................................................................... 39 Forests and Climate Change Adaptation ....................................... 40 Adaptation Options for Mediterranean forests ........................ 42 Adaptation to Increase Social Resilience ....................................... 52 Capacity-Building Adaptation Needs ....................................... 57 Institutional and Policy Frameworks to Support Adaptation Options .................................................................... 64 6- Annex: Athens Statement ..................................................................... 71 Bibliography ................................................................................... 245 Adapting to Global Change 4 Adapting to Global Change Preface orests figure prominently among the most important ecosystems of the Mediterranean; they are very rich in biodiversity and provide a variety Fof environmental services. Rapid and abrupt land-use changes, due to poor management techniques including overexploitation, development and international market pressures, natural habitats’ degradation and loss, and pollution, are only a few of the main factors impacting upon Mediterranean forests and provoking their degradation. Once climate change is added to these factors, accompanied by extreme weather events like heat waves, torrential rainfall, drought periods and strong wind storms, the resilience and adaptation capacity of forests is drastically reduced. Large scale forest wildfires are among the most direct and immediate consequences of climate change affecting Mediterranean forests. Climate change impacts combined with land use changes and the mismanagement of forests enhance the increase of frequency, intensity and extent of fires. This trend was mainly observed in the northern shores of the Mediterranean region (e.g. Portugal, southern France, Spain, Italy and Greece) during the last two decades. If these conditions are prevalent in the southern areas of the Mediterranean, the consequences regarding the forest ecosystems of the entire region will be dramatic. Tackling climate change is a top priority for the regional governments, research institutions and international organizations working in the region. IUCN, WWF and the conservation community at large are embarking on forest-related climate change work, including among other issues, developing adaptation strategies to manage the uncertainties created by climate change and building ecological and social resilience. The IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation (IUCN-Med), the WWF Mediterranean Programme Office and the WWF Greece Organisation brought together member organisations, partners and experts in a regional workshop entitled “Adaptation to Climate Change in Mediterranean Forest Conservation and Management”, which took place in Athens (Greece) on 14-17 April 2008. During the workshop, participants from regional NGOs, research institutions, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, as well as forest and 5 Adapting to Global Change protected areas managers, analysed needs and opportunities to increase forest and social resilience in the light of global change. The climate change predictions for the region were discussed and climate change adaptation strategies and tools that have proved to be successful in other areas were introduced. The workshop participants prepared a joint statement (The Athens Statement included as an annex in this publication) urging all Mediterranean countries to jointly develop, assess the effectiveness, and fine-tune climate change risk reduction and adaptation strategies and tools. The Statement also expressed the urgent need for north-south cooperation in the region. The workshop was co-sponsored by IUCN Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation, WWF Mediterranean Programme Office, as well as the A.G. Leventis, I.S. Latsis and Bodosakis Foundations, which fund WWF Greece “Forests for the Future” programme. This publication represents a first step for developing a joint programme of work and strategy on Mediterranean forest adaptation to climate change, including the input of international organizations like FAO, UNDP, GTZ, WWF and IUCN, partners and member organizations, forest managers and users, governments, research institutions and the private sector. This publication has been prepared with the financial support of the Spanish Agency for International Cooperation and Development (AECID). 6 Adapting to Global Change Mediterranean Forests 1 Introduction cosystems are dynamic systems permanently adapting to environmental changes. The Mediterranean forest ecosystems have gone in the past Ethrough numerous changes in climate, providing different responses (tolerance to the environmental change due to the phenotypic
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