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Número 57(2) (2018) E-ISSN 2340-0119 ◊ ISSN 0210-5462 ◊ D.LEGAL: GR./392/1971 Universidad de Granada Número 57(2) (2018) e-ISSN 2340-0119 ◊ ISSN 0210-5462 ◊ D.LEGAL: GR./392/1971 Dirección Cuadernos Geográcos es una revista cientíca Direction que se edita desde 1971 con el patrocinio de los Emilio Martinez Ibarra, Universidad de Granada, España Departamentos de Geografía y la Editorial de la Universidad de Granada. Esta publicación tiene por objeto difundir la investigación de Secretario de Revisión calidad relativa a las relaciones entre la socie- Peer Reviewing Secretary dad y el territorio que contribuya al desarrollo Luis Miguel Sánchez Escolano, Universidad de Granada, España de la Ciencia Geográca, en español, inglés y francés, obra principalmente de geógrafos, Secretario de Edición aunque esta abierta a otros cientícos sociales y de las ciencias de la tierra. Se centra esencial- Editing Secretary mente en el Mundo Mediterráneo de ambas Jonatan Arias García, Universidad de Granada orillas y en Latinoamérica aunque no excluye otras áreas y problemáticas anes. Editores Adjuntos Cuadernos Geográcos is a scientic journal Associated Editors which has been in print since 1971 under the Eugenio Cejudo García, Universidad de Granada, España commission of the Department of Geography Francisco Antonio Navarro Valverde, Universidad de Granada and University Press of Granada (Spain). e Joaquín Bosque Sendra, Universidad de Alcalá de Henares, España objective of this publication is to disseminate José María Gómez Espín, Universidad de Murcia, España quality research having to do with the relation- Juan Antonio Márquez Domínguez, Universidad de Huelva, España ship between society and territory that contrib- Juan Ignacio Plaza Gutierrez, Universidad de Salamanca, España utes to the development of Geographical Science, María Elena Martín-Vivaldi Caballero, Universidad de Granada, España in Spanish, English and French. e articles María José Martos Fernández, Universidad de Granada, España are mainly written by geographers, though it is Marina Frolova Ignatieva, Universidad de Granada, España open to other social and earth sciences. It focuses Vicente Rodríguez Rodríguez, CSIC Madrid, España mainly on the Mediterranean world from both shores and Latin America, though is does not ex- clude others areas and their related issues. Comité Asesor Advisory Board Ana Fani Alessandri Carlos, Universidad de Sao Paulo, Brasil Georges Bertrand, Universidad de Toulouse le Mirail et Cépage, Francia Eramis Bueno Sánchez, Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas, México Francisco Calvo García-Tornel, Universidad de Murcia, España Horacio Capel Saez, Universidad de Barcelona, España Contacto de la Redacción Cristina Teresa Carballo, Universidad de Quilmes, Argentina Editorial Office Contact Info Sylvie Coupleux, Universidad de Artois, Francia Sylvie Delmer, Université Lille1, Francia Departamento de Análisis geográco regional Myriam X. Galleguillos, Universidad Alberto Hurtado, Chile y Geografía Física ó Departamento de Geogra- Arlinda Garcia Coll, Universidad de Barcelona, España fía humana. Andrea Guaran, Universidad de Udine, Italia Universidad de Granada. Campus de Cartuja, Alicia Lindón, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México 18071 Granada (España). Javier Martín-Vide, Universidad de Barcelona, España Teléfonos: (00-34) 958243644/958243628. Eduardo Martínez de Pisón, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, España Fax: (00-34) 9586213/958243930. Jean-Paul Métailié, Universidad de Toulouse Le Mirail, Francia Irene Molina, Universidad de Uppsala, Suecia e-mail: [email protected] Antonio Moreno Jiménez, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, España Jorge Olcina Cantos, Universidad de Alicante, España Belén Pedregal Mateos, Universidad de Sevilla, España Distribución Silvana Maria Pintaudi, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Brasil Distribution Pedro Reques Velasco, Universidad de Cantabria, España Editorial Universidad de Granada. Eduardo Salinas Chaves, Universidad de La Habana, Cuba Antiguo Colegio Máximo. Campus de Cartuja. María T. Sánchez Salazar, Universidad Nac. Autónoma de México, México Brisa Varela, Universidad Nacional de Luján, Argentina 18071 Granada (España). Florencio Zoido Naranjo, C. de Estudios de Paisaje y Territorio, España Teléfono: (00-34) 958243930 Cuadernos Geográcos | e- - Número 57(2) (2018) Mayo-Agosto 2018 | 349 páginas Sumario Contents Artículos / Articles - P F J | J Á -F | J O -Z Cartografía de la probabilidad de inundación del litoral andaluz a nales del siglo XXI ante la subida del nivel del mar Cartography of the probability of inundation of the andalusian coast by the end of the 21st century - P D A | A L D | J D P El calentamiento global en el Atlántico Norte Suroriental. El caso de Canarias. Estado de la cuestión y perspectivas de futuro e global warming in the Southeast region of the North Atlantic Ocean. e case of Canary Islands. State of the art and further perspectives - A I H M | A R D | M I E C Evolución de los enfoques en deserticación: una revisión de 170 estudios de casos Analysis of the evolution on desertication approaches: a review of 170 case-studies - B S A | M T C O Analysis and Modelling of Groundwater Salinity Dynamics in the Gaza strip Análisis y modelización de la salinidad del agua subterránea en la Franja de Gaza - G S E | R U G R | M F B Análisis de metapoblaciones de aves acuáticas en La Mancha Húmeda: importancia de la disponibili- dad de humedales Analysis of waterbirds metapopulations in La Mancha Húmeda: availability of wetlands importance - M­ A­ M G La Desamortización civil de Madoz. Resultados para los montes públicos en la provincia de Granada 1855-1924 e Civil Disentailment of Madoz. Outcomes for the Public Forests in the Granada province. 1855-1924 - A B A | M G G | J B S Planicación y ordenación territorial de la caza. Hacia una comarcalización cinegética de Mallorca Territorial planning and game management. A Model of hunting regions in Mallorca - P C | I M | C D Análisis territorial y temporal del consumo eléctrico en el sector residencial de Argentina (1995-2014) Territorial and temporal analysis of electrical consumption in the residential sector of Argentina (1995- 2014) - E O | C B Procesos de urbanización y articialización del suelo en las aglomeraciones urbanas españolas (1987- 2011) Urbanisation processes and land articialisation in Spanish urban agglomerations (1987-2011) - J M T R ­ ¿Seleccionan las ciudades a su población? Tendencias de selectividad residencial en las cabeceras me- tropolitanas andaluzas Do the cities select their population? Residential selectivity trends in Andalusian inner-cities - J F F R ­ | E D M J Metodología de diagnosis de la vivienda vacía en ámbito local. El caso de Bormujos (Sevilla) Methodology for diagnosis of empty housing at local level. e case study of Bormujos (Seville) - D V. M A | J A. G G­ | F J. J C Metodología para la clasicación y caracterización de unidades territoriales homogéneas. El caso de los países de Centroamérica Methodology for the classication and characterization of homogeneous territorial units. e case of Cen- tral American countries - M H E | M R A­ | R P El proceso de urbanización en un territorio pastoril trashumante del Noroeste de Patagonia, Argentina (1920-2010) e urbanization process in a transhumant pastoral territory of North-West Patagonia, Argentina (1920- 2010) - P R W G Manejo campesino de paisajes rurales: estudio de caso en el Occidente de México Farmer management of rural landscapes: a case study from western Mexico - J A L F Antiguos molinos hidráulicos en la Región de Murcia. Un nuevo enfoque turístico y patrimonial Old hidraulic mills in the Región of Murcia. A new tourist and patrimonial approach Artículos Articles I tt.oi.or10.302caeo.vi2.99 F, P. et al. (2018). Cartografía de la probabilidad de inundación del litoral andaluz a nales del siglo XXI Cuadernos Geográcos 57(2), 6-26 6 Cartografía de la probabilidad de inundación del litoral andaluz a nales del siglo XXI ante la subida del nivel del mar P F J ✉ | J Á-F | J O-Z Recibido: 05/04/2017 | Aceptado: 12/02/2018 Resumen En este trabajo se evalúa la probabilidad de inundación por subida del nivel medio del mar para el conjunto del litoral andaluz empleando un modelo digital de elevaciones con una resolución espacial de 5 metros y los resultados del análisis estadístico de las series temporales de los mareó- grafos localizados en esta costa. El método empleado para espacializar la probabilidad de subida del nivel medio del mar en cada celdilla del área de estudio consiste en relacionar los diferentes modelos de probabilidad acumulada de subida del nivel del mar, caracterizados por unos pará- metros locales de centralidad y desviación, y la altitud de cada celdilla, obteniéndose un valor p indicador de la probabilidad de que esta sea rebasada por la pleamar en el futuro. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que es probable que amplias zonas de la costa andaluza actualmente no in- dudables se vean inundadas a nales del siglo XXI. Las diferencias identicadas en los resultados obtenidos entre los cuatro escenarios empleados evidencian que el análisis realizado es altamente dependiente del escenario elegido. Palabras clave: subida del nivel del mar; probabilidad; exposición; cambio climático; cartografía. Abstract Cartography of the probability of inundation of the andalusian coast by the end of the 21st century e aim of this work is to evaluate the probability of inundation caused by sea level rise for the entire Andalusian coast using a digital elevation model with a spatial resolution of 5 meters and the registers of the local tide gauges located on this coast . e applied methodology involves spatializing the mean sea level rise probability on each cell of the study area, relating the dierent models of cumulative probability of sea level rise and the altitude of each cell, obtaining a p value that indicates the probability of being exceeded by the future high water. e results show that it is likely that large areas of the Andalusian coast will be ooded by the end of the 21st century. e identied dierences in the results for the four scenarios show that the analysis performed is highly dependent on the chosen scenario. Key words: sea level rise; probability; hazard; climate change; cartography.
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