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Økt Kraftutveksling Med Kontinentet

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Økt Kraftutveksling Med Kontinentet Økt kraftutveksling med Kontinentet Et casestudie av politikkprosessen i Norge før tildeling av konsesjon til kraftutveksling med Tyskland og Storbritannia Kjersti Dalfest Masteroppgave i statsvitenskap Institutt for statsvitenskap UNIVERSITETET I OSLO Våren 2015 I II Økt kraftutveksling med Kontinentet Et casestudie av politikkprosessen i Norge før tildeling av konsesjon til kraftutveksling med Tyskland og Storbritannia III © Kjersti Dalfest År 2015 Tittel: Økt kraftutveksling med Kontinentet - Et casestudie av politikkprosessen i Norge før tildeling av konsesjon til kraftutveksling med Tyskland og Storbritannia Kjersti Dalfest http://www.duo.uio.no Trykk: Allkopi IV V Sammendrag Denne studien har undersøkt den politiske prosessen i Norge før det ble gitt konsesjon til mellomlandsforbindelser til Tyskland og Storbritannia. Antall forbindelser til utlandet har vært et konfliktspørsmål over lengre tid. Det har vært planer om forbindelser til Tyskland og Storbritannia siden 1990-tallet uten at de har blitt realisert. Forskningsspørsmålet her var: Hvorfor ble det gitt konsesjon nå, og hvorfor ble det søkt om konsesjon til to prosjekter? For å undersøke dette har litteratur- og dokumentanalyse blitt anvendt, i tillegg til at det har blitt gjennomført ni semi-strukturerte intervjuer med aktører som har deltatt i politikkprosessen. Representanter fra kraftbransjen, industrien, miljøorganisasjoner og Olje- og energidepartementet ble intervjuet. Studien har tatt utgangspunkt i det instrumentelle perspektivets hierarkiske variant og Advocacy Coalition Framework. Det ble funnet at politisk ledelse, ved bruk av hierarkiske virkemidler, har hatt stor grad av kontroll over beslutningsprosessen. Det ble identifisert fire påvirkningskoalisjoner med ulike syn på mellomlandsforbindelser. Eksterne hendelser og politikkorientert læring har aktualisert mellomlandsforbindelser og ført til økt politisk oppmerksomhet. Norge vedtok å innføre grønne sertifikater etter det ble klart at Fornybardirektivet var EØS-relevant, hvilket har bidratt til at Norge og Norden går mot et forventet kraftoverskudd med lave strømpriser. Det kan ha gjort det lettere for industrien å akseptere forbindelsene, i tillegg til at det har gjort det mer presserende for kraftbransjen å få et marked for kraften. Forhandlet enighet mellom Norsk Industri, Energi Norge og LO synes å ha vært en viktig faktor for at det ble to kabler. At mellomlandsforbindelser har blitt knyttet til klima kan ha styrket kraftbransjens koalisjonsressurser, ved at deler av miljøbevegelsen har fremmet kabler. VI VII Forord Arbeidet med masteroppgaven har både vært krevende og veldig lærerikt. Det har vært en spennende tid, men jeg er veldig glad for at jeg nå er i mål. Først og fremst vil jeg takke mine veiledere, Morten Egeberg og Inga Ydersbond, for gode råd og motiverende tilbakemeldinger underveis i arbeidet og spesielt mot slutten. Jeg vil også takke informantene som tok seg tid til å stille til intervju i en travel arbeidsdag. Oppgaven ville ikke blitt den samme om ikke dere hadde delt av deres kunnskap og erfaringer. Jeg ønsker også å takke Bingogjengen for godt selskap under nødvendige pauser fra lesesalen. Til slutt vil jeg takke venner og familie for støtte og oppmuntring. Takk til Petter, Odd, Bente og Åse for korrekturlesning. Eventuelle feil og mangler i oppgaven står jeg selvfølgelig ansvarlig for. Kjersti Dalfest, Oslo, mai 2015 Antall ord: 29 116 VIII IX Innholdsfortegnelse 1 Introduksjon ............................................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Tidligere forskning ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Studiens design .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.2.1 Teoretisk rammeverk ............................................................................................................................ 5 1.2.2 Avgrensninger ........................................................................................................................................... 6 1.2.3 Datainnsamling og analyse .................................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Oppgavens struktur ...................................................................................................................... 7 2 Teori ............................................................................................................................................ 8 2.1 Valg av teori ..................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Det instrumentelle perspektivet .............................................................................................. 9 2.2.1 Formell struktur ..................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.2 Handlingslogikk ...................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.3 Formulering av mål ............................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.4 Syn på ledelse .......................................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.5 Den hierarkisk-instrumentelle varianten ................................................................................... 12 2.2.6 Forventninger basert på det instrumentelle perspektivets hierarkiske variant ....... 13 2.3 Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) ................................................................................. 13 2.3.1 Politikkprosessen .................................................................................................................................. 14 2.3.2 Årsaker til politikkendring ................................................................................................................ 18 2.3.3 Forventninger basert på ACF ............................................................................................................ 20 2.4 Oppsummering ............................................................................................................................ 20 3 Metode ...................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1 Casestudie og valg av case ........................................................................................................ 21 3.2 Datainnsamling ............................................................................................................................ 22 3.2.1 Litteratur- og dokumentanalyse ..................................................................................................... 22 3.2.2 Semi-strukturert eliteintervju .......................................................................................................... 22 3.2.3 Analyse ....................................................................................................................................................... 25 3.3 Studiens kvalitet .......................................................................................................................... 28 3.3.1 Reliabilitet ................................................................................................................................................. 28 3.3.2 Validitet ...................................................................................................................................................... 29 4 Bakgrunn ................................................................................................................................. 30 4.1 Sentrale aktører for utviklingen av elektrisitetspolitikk i Norge ............................... 30 4.1.1 Olje- og energidepartementet .......................................................................................................... 30 4.1.2 Norges vassdrags- og energidirektorat ........................................................................................ 31 4.1.3 Systemansvarlig: Statnett ................................................................................................................... 32 4.1.4 Andre aktører .......................................................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Konsesjonsprosessen ................................................................................................................. 34 5 Empiri ....................................................................................................................................... 37 5.1 Historisk prosess ......................................................................................................................... 37 5.1.1 Energiloven: Liberaliseringen av kraftmarkedet ..................................................................... 37 5.1.2 Nord Pool – integrasjon av kraftmarkedet ................................................................................. 40 5.1.3 Tørrår og grønne sertifikater ..........................................................................................................
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