3

3 LUTON TODAY TODAY LUTON

3 Luton Today Summary through the masterplan alone, it will seek to tackle issues regarding town centre perception Growth and safety, as well as provision of high quality A Luton town centre has seen a rapid growth accessible housing in the town centre. in population since 2011 compared to the wider borough. This could be due to office Socio-profile to residential conversions, increasing the F A socio-profile of Luton reveals that Luton town amount of dwellings in the town centre. In centre is dominated by those classified as addition improved rail services to London ‘rental hubs’ and’ transient renters’, indicating could have attracted more people to live in that the town centre has a strong weighting the town centre who commute to London towards less affluent groups. Comparatively, for work. Luton borough has a wider distribution of B If the population growth in Luton town more affluent socio-groups, medium level centre continues the trend of growth, a high socio-groups and less affluent, transient socio- level estimate indicates that 150 dwellings groups. However, as a metropolitan centre, it would need to be delivered each year in is important that Luton caters for the broadest Luton town centre. audience range possible, to maximise the attractiveness of the town centre and the Demographic activity levels within it.

C This assumption regarding Luton’s recent Deprivation growth is reflected in the demographic G split within the town centre, which is Luton is in the top 22% most deprived local largely comprised of young and working authorities in the UK, however, figures show age people, with a small or decreasing that Luton is less relatively deprived now than population of over 65’s. in 2015. Despite this, Luton borough wages are still on average lower than the wider Eastern D Most households in the town centre are region. comprised of one person or are co-location. This is mostly likely due to the number of Working in Luton students and younger population in the Economic activity town centre. There is a low proportion of families in the town centre compared to the H Luton town centre has a higher rate of borough average. unemployment compared to the wider borough and eastern region, indicated in the 2011 Homelessness census. It is assumed that this figure will have E Luton has the highest rate of homelessness improved since, in line with the borough trend. and child homelessness in England, I Unemployment rates are present in all age outside of London. The town centre is groups in Luton town centre, indicating a worst affected with rough sleeping. Luton’s structural problem. The masterplan will need new homelessness strategy focuses on to incorporate employment opportunities intervention and prevention, to prevent which respond to local skills to benefit local the cycle of entrenchment. Although some residents, whilst also providing office and solutions to this issue cannot be solved business typologies which address encourage

26 L N M K J

Car ownershipinLutontowncentreislow The boroughhasabalancedinwardand Data indicatesadiverseemploymentoffer Luton iscomprisedofanumberdifferent The majorityofLutontowncentreis Health Health Communities andneighbourhoods Car ownership professional, andtechnicaloccupations. roles asmanagers,professional,associate Luton’s neighbourhoods sustainable meansoftravel. encourage thistrendbypromoting key locations. The masterplanshould good publictransportconnectionsto region. This maybeaconsequenceof compared totheboroughandeastern employment opportunitiesinthearea. the assertionthattherearelimitedlocal outward commutingtrend,challenging type. representative ofanyparticularoccupation in thetowncentreandwiderborough,not defined (New Town, FarleyHill). other neighbourhoodsareas arelesswell enforce asenseofcommunity, whereas Park, High Town, Biscot),helpingto clear boundaryandstrong identity(Bury neighbourhoods, someofwhichhavea much higherat81.9years. (75.1 years).Lifeexpectancyforwomenis the lowestlifeexpectancyformeninLuton Despite thishowever, theSouthwardhas in severalofthekeyhealthindicators. the borough,itperformsaveragelyorbetter despite beingoneofthemostdeprivedin wellbeing profileofthiswardindicatesthat, located withinSouthward. A healthand P O R Q

Luton hasawidevarietyofcommunity Neighbourhoods ontheouteredgeto Overall, perceptionsofLutonareimproving A significantnumberofLutoniansperceive Community facilities Deprivation Residents’ perception ofLuton andsafetyCrime in thetowncentre. explore optionsformorecommunityfacilities population, themasterplanwillneedto within theringroad.Withagrowingcentral andnoschoolsexist community centre community usesinthetowncentre-no facilities, however, thereisalackof masterplan. these neighbourhoodsisakeypriorityofthe country. Makingthetowncentreworkfor 10% mostdeprivedneighbourhoodsinthe of Park Town andFarleyHillfallingintothe increase towardsthetowncentrewithparts deprived withinLuton.Deprivationlevels northeast, eastandsoutheastaretheleast has improvedinthelastyear. with only15%believingthe imageofLuton less satisifiedwithLuton asaplacetolive, wave). Those livingintheSouth wardarefar its improved(downfrom34%intheprevious past yearandonly21%ofrespondentsthink image ofLutonhasstayedthesameover level. However, 54%ofresidentsfeelthe cohesion consideredhighatwardandtown within thecommunity, withcommunity hot spotforantisocialbehaviour. in criminaldamage;andthetowncentreasa crime figureswhichindicateanupwardtrend This perceptionispartlyborneoutinthe believe thisisimpactedbypeoplebegging. Luton towncentretobeunsafe,many

27

Luton today Luton today

Defining statistical areas Who lives in Luton? To understand more about who lives Population and works in Luton, we have used 3.1 Figure 3.1 shows the population profile of data at three spatial scales: Luton town Luton and Luton town centre. The population of centre (1), Luton borough (2), and Luton (Borough wide) was 203,734 in 2011 and ‘eastern region’ (3). The spatial scale increased by 10,459 between 2011 and 2018 (or used to analyse trends within Luton 5.1%). Meanwhile, the population in Luton town town centre is made up of super output centre increased rapidly by 42% from 4,280 in areas E02003275, and E02003278. 2011 to 6,084 in 2018. The inclusion of both super output areas is necessary in order to cover the entirety of the town centre geography. The ‘eastern region’ is a high-level spatial scale made-up of 46 local authorities across Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire.

The approach places Luton’s statistical trends in their wider context, allowing comparisons to be drawn between Luton town centre and neighbouring areas, to provide a clearer understanding of the socio-economic dynamics within Luton. These three Luton town centre Luton borough spatial scales are shown below and will be drawn on and referred to throughout Figure 3.1: Growth in Luton and Luton town centre’s this chapter. population (Source: Population Estimates, Nomis, 2019)

Luton

1 Luton town centre scale 2 Luton borough 3 Eastern region

28 3.2 The population growth of Luton borough is 3.4 Figure 3.2 shows the age distribution in comparable to the population growth of the 2018 for Luton town centre, compared to eastern region (+5.8% over the same period). Luton borough and the eastern region. The table shows some similarities between Luton 3.3 The rapid population growth in Luton town borough and the eastern region in the age- centre between 2011 and 2018 could be structure of their population, although Luton linked to improvements to rail services (i.e. borough has a slightly younger population. Thameslink Programme update which started The population structure in Luton town centre in 2007) between Luton and London. This has shows a larger proportion of working-age increased the appeal of Luton and particularly people and those aged 16-18. Again, the of Luton town centre, due to the direct access large proportion of 25-49 year olds is not to Luton Station, for young professionals entirely surprising given the urban character working in London. However, as no data is of Luton town centre (which is usually available at this geographical level prior to attractive for young professionals) and the

2011, it is difficult to verify this assumption. good connectivity between Luton town centre and London.

Aged 65+ Aged 50 to 64 Aged 25 to 49 Aged 16 to 24 Aged 0 to 15 Percentage (%) Percentage

Figure 3.2: Population by age group, 2018 (Source: Population Estimates, Nomis, 2019) Luton today

29 3.5 Table 3.1 identifies the population growth, 3.8 The ‘Growing Luton Together’ study by by specific group of age, between 2011 and the Luton Inclusive Growth Commission 2018. The numbers show an important shift explores the relationship between ethnicity in the age-structure in Luton town centre and employment in Luton. 16% of Black with rapid growth of the 0-15 population, men in Luton are unemployed as are 15% as well as people aged 25-65. The fast of Pakistani and Bangladeshi women in population growth of those age groups led Luton. This is far higher than the average to a shift of the population structure in the unemployment rate of 5.6% at the end town centre between 2011 and 2018, with an of 2018. The study reports that more increasing number of young and middle aged than half of women from Pakistani and professionals living in the town centre starting Bangladeshi backgrounds in Luton are or expanding their family. economically inactive. Research by the Equality and Human Rights Commission, 3.6 The implication of this trend will be added among other organisations, has highlighted pressure on community facilities and services significant barriers for ethnic minorities. sought after by families (i.e. nurseries and Despite this, 43% of sole traders in Luton schools, parks and recreational spaces, etc.) were ethnic minority led, demonstrating as well as contributing to a potential shift in the entrepreneurial spirit of ethnic minority the residential demand for larger properties groups in Luton, something which is to be to accommodate young professional families encouraged (SEMLEP Business Survey, (i.e. two and three bedroom flats). 2017). Ethnicity 3.9 Generally, ethnic minority populations are 3.7 Luton is multiculturally diverse. 44.6% more trusting of the Council, more satisfied of people identified as white British in with Luton as a town, and more optimistic the 2011 Census (compared to 85.3% of about the future than their white neighbours people for the East of England region as a (Perceptions of Luton Survey, 2019). whole). The second highest ethnic group are Pakistanis, which made up 14.4% of Luton’s population in 2011 (1.1% at regional level). Other significantly sized ethnic groups that contribute to Luton’s diversity include Bangladeshi (6.7%), Indian (5.2%), black African (4.5%), black Caribbean (4%) and other White (7%). Whilst there is no recent data on ethnicity in Luton, conversations with stakeholders reveal that there has been a large increase in the eastern European population in Luton over recent years.

30 Luton today Hoardings advertising Luton’s People Power Passion initiative 31 Household composition 3.16 More than half of all households in the town centre were living in private rented properties, 3.10 The analysis of historical household composition provides an understanding of the whilst a third of all households were living in housing needs in Luton town centre. social rented properties. Table showing age-specific population growth between 3.11 Luton town centre had circa 3,800 households 2011 and 2018 Luton town Luton Eastern in the latest census (2011). The area counts centre borough region a high proportion of one person households, accounting for nearly 50% of its total number Aged 0-15 113% 11% 8% of households. These households are mainly Aged 16-24 5% -16% -5% formed of persons aged below 65, with the majority most likely being students and single Aged 25-49 59% 3% 0% professionals. Aged 50-64 64% 16% 9% 3.12 The town centre also counts a high proportion of “other” types of household. These are mainly Aged 65+ -8% 11% 18% composed of people living in co-location, living in student halls or in care homes for instance. Table 3.1: Age-specific population growth As Luton town centre has a low proportion between 2011 and 2018 (Source: Population of elderly persons, it is likely that this high Estimates, Nomis, 2019) proportion is driven by a high number of Table showing household Luton Luton Eastern town students and young professionals living in co- composition in 2011 borough region centre locations. TOTAL 100% 100% 100% One person household: 3.13 Unsurprisingly, the proportion of families 13% 10% 13% Aged 65 and over (31%) is low in Luton town centre compared One person household: 35% 18% 16% to the borough average (59%) and the eastern Other region average (65%); with a particularly low Couple family 23% 47% 56% proportion of “couple families” which is half the No dependent children 61% 54% 63% proportion observed in Luton borough and well One dependent child 22% 17% 15% below half the proportion of couple families in Two dependent children the eastern region. 12% 17% 16% Three + dependent children 5% 12% 6% 3.14 A majority of families in Luton town centre have Lone parent family 8% 12% 9% one child or no dependent children. No dependent children 25% 32% 34% Tenure One dependent child 51% 38% 38% Two dependent children 18% 19% 20% 3.15 The majority of the households in Luton town centre in 2011 were renting their property, with Three + dependent children 6% 11% 9% more than twice the proportion observed in Other household types 22% 13% 6%

Luton borough or the eastern region for both Table 3.2: Household composition, 2011 (Source: 32 social rented and private rented properties. Census 2011, Nomis) Table showing tenure type at different scales Luton town Luton Eastern centre borough region Allowance and actual rents are key reasons Owner 12% 61% 68% for homelessness in Luton in recent years. Social rented 34% 16% 16% • Cases of homeless prevention have Private rented 54% 24% 16% increased from 119 cases in 2014-15 to 876 Total 100% 100% 100% cases in 2016-17 and 801 in 2017-18. Table 3.3: Tenure, 2011 (Source: Census 2011, Nomis) • Two thirds of homeless cases are female with dependent children being the most frequent Table showing tenure by household composition in the reason for priority need. The black ethnic town centre Social Private Owner Total group are over represented in homeless rented rented applications. This trend is the same in One person 13% 46% 41% 100% comparator regions. Family, 12% 33% 55% 100% couple 3.19 The Council has seen significant progress Family, lone 9% 59% 32% 100% parent over the last three years, eliminating the Other 8% 7% 84% 100% use of B&Bs for homeless households; enforcement to tackle rogue landlords; Table 3.4: Tenure by household composition in Luton investing in home improvements and new town centre, 2011 (Source: Census 2011, Nomis) homes; and strengthening partnerships with Homelessness in Luton housing providers, charities and statutory bodies. 3.17 Luton is ranked 13th out of all local authorities nationally for local rates of people who are 3.20 The local homeless charity, NOAH Enterprise, homeless, according to homeless charity suggests there has been an increase in Shelter’s annual report ‘This is England: A homelessness of UK nationals in Luton, Picture of Homelessness in 2019’. It has the whereas homelessness among EU citizens highest rate of homelessness in England has dropped in the last few years. Universal outside of London, with 1 in every 47 people Credit, the application of benefit sanctions either living in temporary accommodation and the increase in house prices are the or rough sleeping. 1 in every 22 children biggest factors for this increase. in Luton are homeless living in temporary accommodation, according to Shelter’s report 3.21 The majority of Luton’s temporary ‘Generation Homeless’ (2019). accommodation and rough sleeping is in the town centre. The Council’s objective is to 3.18 The Council’s Housing Strategy 2019-22 reduce rough sleeping in Luton by 50% over provides greater insight: two years (Housing Strategy 2019-22, Luton • Homeless applications in Luton have Council). It is one of the Council’s ambitions, increased by 65% between 2014 and 2017 set out in the Luton Inclusive Growth report, but households considered in priority need in for a town centre masterplan which puts Luton have reduced from 439 to 391, a 10% the needs and values of young people and reduction between 2014 and 2017. vulnerable communities at its heart, including Luton today • The end of an assured shorthold tenancy and planning for homes that support good health. the increasing gap between Local Housing 33 3.22 Other initiatives such as ‘Big Change Luton’, people in Luton are perceived and sometimes a project set up by the Luton Homeless treated, and also, in the context of the town Partnership to encourage donations to centre masterplan, raises issues around the Luton’s homeless services, as well as perceived safety of the town centre. the Council’s updated housing strategy (2019-2022) sets out a new way forward 3.25 According to Jim O’Connor, street beggars to tackle Luton’s severe housing shortage. are often fleeing debt in London and the Homelessness is a key theme, and the majority do not need to be homeless or are strategy focuses on early intervention and not homeless. The challenge is to encourage prevention, an approach supported by local beggars to seek remedial help from addiction stakeholder Jim O’Connor who leads NOAH agencies. Whilst this is outside the scope of Enterprise. He states that: the town centre masterplan, issues regarding town centre perception and safety, as well “...about 80 or 90% of homeless people have as high quality accessible housing in the mental health issues. Some are caused by town centre, will be considered as part of the addiction, for others poor mental health leads development framework. to addiction. There is a cycle of entrenchment and it is hugely difficult to get back from it. So the key is prevention.”

3.23 The reality of homelessness, including Jim O’Connor its drivers and consequences, is complex former CEO of NOAH Enterprise and multifaceted, and solutions must be “We need to acknowledge that vulnerable people sought through strategic forward planning can contribute to, and enhance the community. The in partnership with the national government, question we ask ourselves [at NOAH] is this - ‘Is this the local authority and charity sector. NOAH best I can do for them?’ The town centre masterplan Enterprise is already working with the Council should be much more than buildings and layout. We on pilot project Housing First, an initiative that need a coherent plan and a strategic view. I think began in Finland and is guided by the notion the priorities for achieving the Council’s ambition to that having a place to live is both a human eradicate poverty by 2050 in Luton are: right and a basic right. Other local charities such as Signposts also play a key role in 1. Prevention as a strategy tackling homelessness in Luton. 2. Social housing 3.24 Misunderstanding the reality of homelessness 3. Real partnership working can lead to the public making misinformed 4. Mental health provision” associations between homelessness, street begging and antisocial behaviour in the town centre. This is harmful to the way homeless

34 Images of Luton town centre

Population and household projections 3.28 Starting from this historical evidence, and assuming no change in average household 3.26 Population and household projections are only available at the local authority level. The size, our high level estimate indicates that ONS publishes population projections up to 150 dwellings would need to be delivered 2041 and household projections up to 2039. each year in Luton town centre (out of the These projections, at the local authority level, 850 dwellings to be delivered in total across can be used as a starting point to estimate the borough) in order to support this historical population and household future growth in trend. Luton town centre. Analysed together with 3.29 These figures are only high level estimates, additional historical data, this section aims aiming to demonstrate the recent trend in to provide a high level overview of potential the town centre. The figures should not be changes in the population structure and considered as actual figures (and minimum therefore housing requirements in Luton town requirements) as many factors would centre in the future years. This section does influence the minimum requirements (i.e. not aim to provide an accurate housing target; availability of land, affordability, demographic this can be viewed in the Strategic Housing change of the population, changes in Market Assessment (SHMA) published by household composition, future economic Luton Borough Council together with Central developments, etc.). The delivery of 150 Bedfordshire Council in 2018. This SHMA dwellings in the town centre would be identifies the need to deliver circa 850 needed to achieve the status quo in terms dwellings per annum in the Luton borough. of population growth and repartition of this population growth across the borough. 3.27 Evidence shows that Luton town centre has become home to 17.2% of the additional 3.30 Additionally, a high level analysis of the population of Luton borough between population projections by age group at the 2011 and 2018. By 2018, the town centre Local Authority level shows a decline in the represented 2.8% of the borough’s total number of children aged 3 and 4 (nursery population, whilst only represented 2.1% of age) and children aged between 5 and 11 the total population in 2011, which indicates (in age to attend primary school). Inversely, the faster rate of population growth in population projections for the borough show Luton town centre as opposed to the entire an increase in the number of children aged borough. Growth in the town centre is due to between 12 and 16 (secondary school) and a number of reasons including land values, aged 17 and 18 (college). the ability to provide high density with less parking, lack of space and land in other parts 3.31 Projections are not available for Luton town of the town centre, commuting, redundant centre. However, the current population brownfield land and the conversion of offices structure and historical changes in this to residential. structure in the town centre (compared to the rest of the borough) would indicate that, whilst Luton today the number of children aged 11 and under will decrease in the borough, the opposite 35 Images of Luton town centre

trend could be observed in Luton town centre. Mosaic analysis Therefore, catering for children of young age 3.34 Mosaic is Experian’s consumer classification (provision nursery, primary school) should system, which provides a range of socio- form part of the vision for the town centre. economic characteristics about the adult population. 3.32 This high level analysis of the population projections by age group also shows a fast 3.35 The Mosaic data characterises the population growth of the number of people aged 65 of an area into a range of categories (15 and over in the borough. This population groups and 66 sub-groups) which relate to: group is expected to grow by 23.8% between • 2019 and 2029, against a growth of the total Age/ life stage • population of only 6.1%. Affluence • Level of disposable income 3.33 Historical data has also shown that the • Expected spending habits proportion of the population within Luton town • Type and tenure of housing centre aged 65 and over (compared to the total population) decreased by 3% between 3.36 By exploring these population characteristics 2011 and 2018, which goes against the it is possible to infer the local population’s national trend of an ageing British population. behaviour as consumers. This builds on the In terms of nominal number, this part of the analysis from the secondary data indicators population also slightly decreased from 378 in this section. Specifically it helps to shed individuals in 2011 to 347 in 2018 (see Figure light on the type of retail and leisure uses that 3.3). This share of the population could are likely to best meet the needs of the local remain small and potentially reduce in size population, and the price points for retail and even further over the next 10 or 20 years. leisure spending that are locally accessible (driven by levels of disposable income).

3.37 Analysis of the consumer classifications reflecting age/life stage, affluence and disposable income levels for the adult population in Luton town centre and Luton borough is shown in Figure 3.4. Number of people

Figure 3.3: Population aged 65 and over in Luton town centre (Source: Population Estimates, Nomis, 2019)

36 22% of adults living in the town centre are ‘Transient Renters’ and tend to be young, single people who pay modest rents for low cost homes 55% of adults living in the town centre are classified as ‘Rental Hubs’ - predominantly young, single people who privately Rental Hubs Rental Hubs rent while in the early stages of their careers

Urban Cohesion

Modest Traditions

Vintage Value Municipal Tenants Transient Renters

Urban Cohesion Family Basics U Unclassifed Vintage Value O Rental Hubs Municipal N Urban Cohesion Tenants Aspiring M Modest Traditions Homemakers L Vintage Value Transient K Municipal Tenants Renters J Transient Renters I Family Basics Domestic Success H Aspiring Homemakers G Domestic Success Suburban Stability F Suburban Stability

Senior Security E Senior Security Family Basics D Rural Reality Aspiring C Country Living Homemakers B Prestige Positions Domestic Success Prestige Positions A City Prosperity

Figure 3.4: Mosaic analysis for Luton town centre and Luton borough (Source: Experian, 2019) Luton today

37 3.38 In broad terms, the classifications in proportion of mid-level to more affluent socio- the lower half of the chart (such as ‘City groups with Senior Security (9%) Aspiring Prosperity’ and ‘Prestige Positions’ up to Homemakers (13%) Suburban Stability (5%) ‘Aspiring Homemakers’) represent those and Family Basics (10%) forming a significant who are affluent and have a greater level proportion of the data. Generally, the data of disposable income. By generalising the taken at the borough level is indicative of definitions applied to these classifications it a fairly steady distribution between more is determined that people who can be more affluent socio-groups, medium level socio- discerning about where they spend their groups and less affluent, transient socio- money, tend to be more settled in the place groups. where they live, and provide reliability of trade. 3.44 Conversely, the town centre data indicates a strong weighting towards less affluent 3.39 The classifications in the upper half of the groups. Whilst the natural inference from this chart represent more transient communities trend is that any masterplan needs to cater who may be renters that are likely to move on for less affluent households, it’s important or people in their first homes. to recognise that Luton town centre is, and should aim to continue to be a metropolitan 3.40 The socio-profile within Luton town centre is centre that draws in the population from the dominated by the following 2 key groups: wider borough with its retail and leisure offer. • Rental Hubs (55%) 3.45 This means the town centre offer in Luton • Transient Renters (22%) should be seeking to diversify itself as far as 3.41 This is generally reflective of an area defined possible in order to cater for audience groups by less affluent, transient socio groups. Given with higher disposable income levels (found the high level of student residents within the predominantly outside the town centre in town centre, this is little surprise. the wider borough), and therefore spending power, as well as providing a commercial 3.42 It is clear from the data that lower levels of offer that meets the needs of those on affluence extend across Luton town centre medium and lower incomes looking for a and the borough, with categorisations such as more affordable retail offer. The key is to cater Rental Hubs and Urban Cohesion polarising for the broadest audience range possible, more affluent categorisations such as City to maximise the attractiveness of the town Prosperity (0%), Country Living (0%), and centre, and therefore its activity levels. This is Rural Reality (0%). explored further in the commercial sections of this report. 3.43 Notwithstanding this, it can be inferred that the consumer composition for Luton town 3.46 Figure 3.5 shows the share of retail spend centre and the borough are very different. between convenience and comparison goods Luton borough presents a significantly higher in Luton and Luton town centre in 2016 (based on Experian data). The split of spend 38 between comparison and convenience goods 2019). Measured by the ‘rank of average is the same in both areas, with 62% spend on rank’ Luton is currently ranked the 70th most comparison and 38% on convenience goods. deprived out of 317 local authorities (where 1st is most deprived), which places Luton in Deprivation the top 22% most deprived local authorities 3.47 In terms of deprivation, at the borough level, in the UK. In 2015 Luton was ranked the 59th Luton is medium to high ranking within the most deprived area from 326 local authorities. overall Index of Multiple Deprivation (as at Therefore Luton is less relatively deprived than in 2015.

3.48 At a sub-borough level, levels of deprivation are lowest in north-eastern and eastern areas. This has been the case since 2015, as shown clearly in Figure 3.6. Nevertheless, several Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) within this area have fallen from the top 10-20% least deprived areas nationally to the top 20-50%.

3.49 The proportion of areas in Luton borough in the top 10% most deprived parts of the country has fallen to four output areas (Northwell, South and two in Farley). Previously Luton had Figure 3.5: Convenience and comparison spend nine areas in the top 10%. (2016) (Source: Experian, 2019) 2015 2019

10% most deprived 10% - 20% most deprived 20% - 50% most deprived 20% - 50 % least deprived 10% - 20% least deprived 10% least deprived

Figure 3.6: Index of Multiple Deprivation in Luton borough by LSOA (2015 vs. 2019) Luton today (Source: Luton 2019 Indices of Multiple Deprivation Summary) 39 3.50 Luton town centre is a particularly deprived More specifically, this refers to the more area, with pockets of more affluent affluent households, both in immediate households situated within the neighbouring proximity to the town centre and more widely areas to the northeast. throughout the boroughs north eastern LSOAs. 3.51 In 2015 the LSOA covering the majority of Luton town centre (Luton 018F) was ranked 3.54 This mix should be promoted within the 3,663 out of 32,844 LSOAs in England Strategic Brief to help to achieve a diversified (where 1st is most deprived). This is amongst town centre offer, and ensure that it is an the 20% most deprived neighbourhoods in inclusive environment which caters for a wide the country. range of visitors who have different spending profiles. Directly, this would have an influence 3.52 The LSOA covering the eastern extent of on proactively planning to ensure that a range the town centre area (Luton 018E) was the of retailers, cafes and food and beverage 1,561st most deprived LSOA out of all 32,844 occupiers are present in the town centre. SOAs in England. This is amongst the 10% most deprived neighbourhoods in the country. Earnings

3.55 The median gross hourly pay in Luton 3.53 The Luton town centre offer does and should continue to cater for the needs of borough was £14.34 in 2019. This is Households by deprivation dimensions noticeably lower than the median gross hourly Household is not deprived inless any affluentdimension households, in the immediate local catchment. However as Luton is a pay in the eastern Region (which reached metropolitan centre, Luton’s offer should £16.28 in 2019) and demonstrates the lesser 0 LQ 0% evolve to provide a mix which captures the affluence of the area. spending profiles of the wider population. 0.48 LQ 20.5% 3.56 We also observe that this gap between

the local and the regional0.65 LQ median27.8% gross hourly pay increased significantly in 2008 and 2009 following 0.82the LQ financial35.1% crisis. The

lesser resilience to Averageeconomic turbulence42.4% is often associated with a higher level of deprivation/education1.2 andLQ therefore49.7% a lower Households by deprivation dimensions Household is not deprived in any dimension ability to adapt to sudden1.3 LQ shocks57% (i.e. lower transferability of local residents’ professional 0 LQ 0% 1.5 LQ 64.2% 0.48 LQ 20.5% skills and greater difficulty to respond to a 0.65 LQ 27.8%

0.82 LQ 35.1% spike in unemployment). 100%

Average 42.4% 1.2 LQ 49.7% 3.57 The median gross hourly pay in Figure 3.8 is 1.3 LQ 57%

1.5 LQ 64.2% presented at the boroughData geography: and regional OA levels 100% only. Previous analysis leadsScale 1:42100 us to believe Figure 3.7: Households by deprivation dimensions Data geography: OA that the median gross hourly pay in Luton Scale 1:42100 (Source: DataShine Census, 2019) town centre is below the median pay for the 40 borough. Map shows % of All households. DataShine is produced by the BODMAS project at UCL. Census data (c) Crown Copyright Office of National Statistics. Visit http://www.datashine.org.uk/ for an interactive version.

Contains Ordnance Survey data (c) Crown copyright & database right 2014-5. ,c11_ew_-QS119EW0002-QS119EW0001-oa-standard_dev-0.424233000-0.145785000-cb-RdYlGn-8-0 Map shows % of All households. DataShine is produced by the BODMAS project at UCL. Census data (c) Crown Copyright Office of National Statistics. Visit http://www.datashine.org.uk/ for an interactive version.

Contains Ordnance Survey data (c) Crown copyright & database right 2014-5. ,c11_ew_-QS119EW0002-QS119EW0001-oa-standard_dev-0.424233000-0.145785000-cb-RdYlGn-8-0 Luton borough Eastern region £10.84 £11.26 £11.51 £11.53 £11.78 £12.20 £12.20 £13.20 £13.26 £13.32 £13.64 £14.27 £13.78 £13.89 £14.63 £15.06 £15.46 £16.28 £9.55 £10.14 £10.33 £10.69 £10.49 £10.87 £10.54 £11.26 £11.55 £11.68 £11.95 £12.34 £11.91 £12.24 £13.00 £13.45 £13.73 £14.34

Figure 3.8: Median Gross Hourly Pay (Source: Nomis, 2019)

Implications

A town centre masterplan for a A town centre masterplan to help growing young population eradicate poverty in Luton

There is an increasing number of young The masterplan must take up the challenge and middle aged professionals living in of eradicating poverty and ensure the town the town centre starting or expanding centre provides real economic opportunities their family. The implication of this trend for local people without gentrifying. will be added pressure on community Whilst the market will be focused on the facilities and services sought after by attraction of building commuter homes, the families (i.e. nurseries and schools, parks masterplan must steer sites to do much and recreational spaces, etc.) as well more than this. as contributing to a potential shift in the residential demand for larger properties to accommodate young professional families (i.e. 2 and 3 bedroom flats). Luton today

41 Working in Luton Economic activity

3.58 In terms of economic activity, Luton town centre is characterised by a high rate of unemployment in comparison with Luton borough or the eastern Region, as shown in Table 3.5. Luton town Luton Eastern Table showing economic activity (2011) centre borough region

Economically In employment 55.6% 57.3% 60.5% active Unemployed 10.9% 7.1% 4% Retired 9.6% 15.7% 22.5% Students 12.8% 6.9% 4.2% Economically inactive Stay-at-home 3.6% 6.2% 4.1% Long-term sick or disabled 4.3% 3.6% 2.9% Other 3.3% 3.2% 1.8% Table 3.5: Economic activity, 2011 Source (Census 2011, Nomis 2019)

Buildings in Figure 3.9: Unemployment rate by age-group (2011) (Source: Census, 2011, Nomis 2019) Luton town 42 centre 3.59 The share of the population in economic inactivity is comparable to the share in Luton borough or in the eastern Region, although allocated between sub-categories vary differently. Luton town centre, as suggested by the population figures, has a small proportion of retired people and a large proportion of students. The masterplan should reflect this through the provision of adequate housing stock.

3.60 The level of unemployment in Luton town centre (10.9%), as seen above, was well above the local (7.1%) and regional averages (4.0%) in 2011. There is no recent data on unemployment for Luton town centre but it is reasonable to think that the level of unemployment in the area has followed the trend observed in the borough. Shops and offices in Luton town centre The unemployment rate in Luton borough has marginally reduced since 2011, to reach 5.8% in Luton town Luton Eastern Table showing sector of employment at different scales centre borough region Agriculture, energy and water 1% 1% 2% Manufacturing 8% 9% 9% Construction 6% 8% 9% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and 21% 18% 16% motorcycles Transport and storage 11% 10% 5% Accommodation and food service activities 9% 6% 5% Information and communication 4% 3% 4% Financial and insurance activities 3% 3% 5% Real estate activities 1% 1% 1% Professional, scientific and technical activities 5% 5% 7% Administrative and support service activities 7% 6% 5% Public administration and defence; compulsory social 3% 4% 6% security Education 8% 10% 10% Human health and social work activities 8% 11% 11% Other 5% 4% 5%

Table 3.6: Sector of employment (residents analysis), 2011 (Source: Census 2011, Nomis 2019) Luton today

43 2018. Assuming a similar trend in Luton town centre, the level of unemployment would be circa 8.9% in 2018.

3.61 Looking at age-specific unemployment rates, it is clear that Luton town centre suffers from a structural problem, with all age-groups showing a higher unemployment rate than the one observed in Luton borough or the eastern Region.

3.62 Ensuring that the delivery of new employment in the town centre will benefit local residents should be one of the aims of the Masterplan, particularly for young professionals for whom the rate of unemployment reaches between 15% and 25%. Understanding the profile of this population (education, skills, field of Shops and offices in Luton town centre activity) is therefore essential.

2001 2011 % change Table showing change in sector of employment (2001 - 2011) Agriculture, energy and water 21 48 129% Manufacturing 651 438 -33% Construction 260 344 32% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and 667 1,171 76% motorcycles Transport and storage 440 612 39% Accommodation and food service activities 276 518 88% Information and communication, retail estate activities, professional, scientific and technical activities, adminis- 682 1,119 64% trative and support service activities, administrative and support service activities Public administration and defence; compulsory social 161 161 0% security Education 270 438 62% Human health and social work activities 300 456 52% Other 232 283 22% Total 3,960 5,588 41%

Table 3.7: Sector of employment (residents analysis), Luton town centre, 2001 - 2011 (Census 2001 and 2011 (Nomis, 2019))

44 Employment and travel to work growing sectors between 2001 and 2011. Their importance in providing employment for local 3.63 Table 3.7 shows that in 2011, one in five residents of Luton town centre was employed residents has substantially increased (from in the retail sector. 41% of employment supported in 2001 to 50% in 2011). This can be seen in Table 3.7. 3.64 Taken together, all “office” employment (Information and communication, Real 3.67 It should be noted that the existing data is estate activities, Professional, scientific dated (2011) and no update will be available and technical activities, Administrative and before 2021 at the level of Luton town support service activities) represents the centre. The data should be treated carefully, largest source of employment for residents of particularly in regards to employment in the Luton town centre (27% of all residents are retail industry which has been impacted by a employed in those sectors). negative economic outlook in this sector over the past few years. 3.65 This table also shows that there is a high concentration of residents employed in the 3.68 Table 3.8 shows relative comparable trends accommodation and food and beverage in the nature of occupation for the employed service activities (9%). population living in Luton town centre compared to the borough, and the eastern 3.66 When compared to (comparable) figures region. from 2001, we observed that whilst the 3 sectors highlighted above (“office” jobs; 3.69 The main distinction is the relative strengths retail; accommodation and food and in the elementary occupations in Luton town beverage services) were the major source centre compared to the wider borough and the of employment for people living in Luton eastern region. Moreover, Luton town centre, town centre (providing together 50.3% of and the wider Luton borough present a weaker the total employment), they were also faster Luton town Luton Eastern Table showing employment by occupation type at different scales centre borough region Managers, directors and senior officials 7% 8% 11% Professional occupations 13% 13% 17% Associate professional and technical occupations 10% 10% 13% Administrative and secretarial occupations 10% 11% 12% Skilled trades occupations 9% 11% 12% Caring, leisure and other service occupations 10% 10% 9% Sales and customer service occupations 10% 9% 8% Process, plant and machine operatives 8% 11% 7% Elementary occupations 23% 16% 11%

Table 3.8: Employment by occupation type (Census 2001 and 2011 (Nomis, 2019)) Luton today

45 representation in the first three professional 3.71 It is clear from Figure 3.10, that Luton occupation categories compared to the borough has a trend of net inward- eastern region. This is likely, at least in part, commuting. However, with a net change of to reflect the lesser professional employment just 829, the borough is particularly balanced opportunities accommodated within Luton in its inward and outward commuting trends. town centre and the wider borough. The On the whole, trends challenge the assertion provision of office and small business that there are limited local employment typologies in the right environment that are opportunities in the area. With a wide attractive to occupiers could address this. distribution of occupation types within the borough, it is likely that inward commuters 3.70 Notwithstanding this, professional operate within a diverse range of industries. occupations (13%) represent the second highest percentage of occupation type. In 3.72 Data from the 2011 Census shows the top this regard, whilst perhaps less prevalent outflows are to Central Bedfordshire, followed than trends in the wider eastern region, by St Albans and Dacorum. Based on recent data in Luton town centre, and Borough is conversations with agents, commutability indicative of a diverse employment offer, not to London is an increasingly large draw for representative of any particular occupation those renting in Luton. type. Top infows Top outfows

Infow: 34,402 people commute into Luton from other local authorities in the UK Outfow: 33,573 people commute out of Luton to other local authorities in the UK or abroad Net change: Overall, commuting results in a population increase of 829 in Luton

Figure 3.10: Method of travel to work (2001 specification) Source: Census 2011, ONS, 2019

46 Car ownership % 3.73 As might be expected, car ownership per household is significantly lower in Luton town centre when compared against Luton borough and the eastern region. Given the % strong provision of services in Luton town centre, and the ease of access to public % transport facilities offering connections to the key locations listed in Figure 3.11, the low provision of cars per household is understandable.

3.74 Building on this, the Masterplan would be % encouraged to continue this trend, promoting % sustainable means of travel within the town centre.

%

%

%

%

No cars or vans in household 1 car or van in household 2 or more cars or vans in household

Figure 3.11: Pie charts showing car ownership at different geographical

scales (Source: 2011 Census) Luton today

47 The view from Luton train station south along Bute Street 48 Healthy Luton

3.75 The majority of the town centre masterplan study area is located within South ward. A profile for the ward was completed by Luton Council in April 2019 and gives statistics relating to health and wellbeing. Key findings from the report are set out below: • Despite being one of the most deprived wards, South ward has a significantly lower level of low birth weights over a five year period with 6.8%. • South had an average level of self-reported bad health in the town at 4.6% compared with the Luton average of 4.8% (2011 Census) • South has average levels of obesity compared with the rest of the district - 10.7% of children in reception year are obese, 23.5% in year 6, and 22.6% of adults are obese. • Using data from 2010 to 2014, South ward has the lowest life expectancy for men in Luton - 75.1 years. Life expectancy for woman is much higher at 81.9 years.

Figure 3.12: Births with birth weight less than 2500g (%) (five year average) 2010 - 2014. South ward has the Luton today lowest number of low birth weights in Luton. The Luton average is marked by the red line. 49 ring road railway parks and green spaces (the darker colours within Figure 3.13: Nearby the neighbourhoods show neighbourhood centres) neighbourhoods

Figure 3.14: Map of deprivation

70% most deprived LSOAs nationally 60% 50% 40% 30% 50 20% 10% most deprived LSOAs nationally Luton’s neighbourhoods

3.76 The plan opposite shows Luton’s neighbourhoods that border the town centre. Some neighbourhoods have a strong identity and clear boundaries, whereas for other areas it is less clear where they start and stop. Bury Park, for example, has a high concentration of the town’s Asian population, giving the neighbourhood a distinct identity and strong sense of community. The numerous shops and restaurants at Bury Park help to meet the needs of those living there, and so the challenge is people are less likely to want to travel into the town centre.

3.77 Other distinct communities include the neighbourhoods to the north, for example High Town and Biscot, which are clearly separated from the town centre by the railway line and served by neighbourhood centres.

3.78 Places to the south of the town centre are less defined. New Town, for example, was a historic name for part of south Luton, but does not appear to be as well known today. If drawn tightly, Farley Hill would include just the estate, but some Lutonians who live on either side of Farley Hill right up to the ring road would consider themselves in Farley Hill. Notwithstanding the ambiguity, the ring road Neighbourhoods around the town centre is a clearly defined barrier that marks where the town centre ends and the bordering Deprivation increases further into the town neighbourhoods begin. centre. Parts of Park Town and Farley Hill are in the 10% most deprived neighbourhoods in 3.79 The plan adjacent (Figure 3.14) shows the country. Making the town centre work for deprivation mapped at ward level for these the people that live in these neighbourhoods neighbourhoods. Deprivation is least is a key priority of the masterplan. pronounced in neighbourhoods on the outer edge to the northeast, east and southeast. Luton today

51 18 40 17 16

14 39

38 41

37 36 15 42

13 43

33 31 22 32 29 30 21 35 34 23 28 19 24 27 44 20 12 26

25

11 10

7 2 5 6 9 1 3 4

8

Figure 3.15: Community facilities in Luton

1. Farley Community Centre 25. Guru Nanak Gurdwara 2. St Margaret of Scotland RC Church 26. Calvary Church of God in Christ 3. Farley Hill Methodist Church 27. Bury Park Mosque 4. St Saviour’s Church 28. Bury Park United Reformed Church 5. Ebenezer Chapel 29. Masjid e Noor 6. Our Lady Help of Christians Church 30. Masjid Al Ghurabaa 7. Central Baptist Church 31. Jalalabad Jame Masjid 8. Strathmore Avenue Methodist Church 32. Luton Central Mosque 9. Luton Chinese Christian Church 33. Holy Ghost Catholic Church 10. St Mary’s Church 34. Oakdale Methodist Church 11. Quakers Meeting House 35. Parish of All Saints with St Peter 12. St Anne’s Church 36. The Parish Church of Saint Andrew 13. St. Francis Parish Church 37. Blenheim Crescent Baptist Church 14. Sacred Heart RC Church 38. Sisters Of St Clares Convent 15. St. Christopher’s Church 39. Saint Margaret’s Methodist Church 16. Stopsley Library 40. Saint Joseph the Worker Catholic 17. St Thomas Church Church 18. Stopsley Baptist Chapel 41. Jamia Al-Akbaria 19. Hightown Community Sports & Arts Centre 42. Masjid-e-Ali (as) Community Centre 20. High Town Road Methodist Church 43. Beech Hill Methodist Church 21. St. Matthew’s Church 44. St Peter’s Centre 22. Watersprings Christian Centre 23. Kingdom Hall of Jehovah’s Witnesses 24. Luton Central Seventh-Day Adventist Church

52 Community facilities

3.80 Figure 3.15 shows the main community facilities in and around Luton town centre. There are a lack of community uses in the town centre, with no community centre within its reach and no schools within the ring road. Facilities that are in the town centre are: • Luton Central Library • Religious buildings - including St. Mary’s Church, Central Baptist Church and Luton Chinese Christian Church • Charities - including NOAH, Youthscape, Stepping Stones and Signposts • University of Bedfordshire • Luton Adult Learning in Arndale House • Multiple theatre venues including Library Theatre, the Hat Factory and at the Carnival Centre

3.81 Across Luton are local community groups that host a variety of events and activities which contribute positively to the vitality of the town.

3.82 The masterplan will explore options for community facilities in the town centre, especially in the context of a growing population.

Community facilities in the town centre Luton today

53 Figure 3.17: Crimes recorded in and around the town centre, December 2019. Source: Police UK

Figure 3.16: Plans showing criminal activity hotspots 54 Source: Town Centre PSPO Report (February 2018) Crime and safety

3.83 The 2016 consultation relating to the Town 3.85 An amended PSPO for the town centre has Centre Public Spaces Protection Order recently been consulted on and includes a (PSPO) revealed that a significant number ban on the consumption of alcohol in public of people perceive the town centre to be places, spitting, urinating and begging. The unsafe. 28% feel fairly unsafe or very unsafe feedback from the consultation revealed during the day, and 53% feel unsafe after that the majority of Lutonians agree with dark. People begging, urinating in public and the restrictions and 82% think it will have a street drinking were the three activities that positive impact on the town centre. were considered to have the biggest impact on people living in, working and visiting the town centre. 74% of respondents felt people begging had a very big impact. “I always feel that something bad could happen at any 3.84 The plans opposite show the offences and incidents that took place in the town centre in point – and I am constantly on 2017 (to the end of January 2018). guard.” • According to the Town Centre PSPO Report (February 2018), criminal damage in the town centre has followed an upward trend. The most prominent hotspots for criminal damage were Guildford Street, Cheapside, Telford Way, The Mall and Chapel Street. “I feel increasingly • Levels of town centre violent offending have unsafe in the town remained stable. Peak locations for violent centre. The amount of offending were seen in Wellington Street and public disturbances I George Street with offence levels higher at have seen is increasing.” Quotes from weekends, particularly between 3 and 4pm, respondents of and 12am to 1am. the 2017 PSPO consultation • Fly tipping offences are dispersed across the town centre, with the most prominent being in Old Bedford Road, New Bedford Road and Wellington Street. “The town can make you feel • George Street, Park Street and The Mall intimidated at times with the are hotspots for antisocial behaviour. Levels number of people begging of antisocial behaviour have followed a and drinking around the downward trend (February, 2018). Incident entrances to the Mall.” levels peak between 4pm and 6pm.

55 Figure 3.18: Map showing the % of people who think the town centre shops, pubs and restaurants are good or very good.

0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

Figure 3.19: Map showing the % of people who think the town has good or very good health services. There is a clear north and south divide, with people in South ward happy with the provision of health facilities in the area.

0-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

56 “multicultural” 44% of residents rate the town “g o o d ” centre shops, pubs and “home” restaurants as good or very good Three most commonly used words to describe Luton

How Luton’s neighbourhoods view Luton 3.87 The 2019 survey shows significant 3.86 The latest wave of the ‘Perceptions of Luton’ residents survey was carried out in 2019. improvements since the previous wave of the The survey was completed by 1,000 Luton survey which was undertaken in 2016: residents. Below are the key findings relevant • 18% increase in the percentage of residents to the town centre: rating schools as good (from 46% to 64%) • 16% increase in percentage of residents • People are more satisfied with their local agreeing that Luton is a town where people area (83%) than they are with Luton as a from different backgrounds get along whole (68%). • • Community cohesion is high (90% at ward 15% in the percentage of affordable housing level and 86% for the town as a whole). as good • White residents showed the highest levels of 14% increase in the percentage of residents disagreement that Luton as a town is a place rating arts and cultural facilities as good. • where people from different backgrounds get 13% increase in the percentage of residents on well together (15% of white respondents rating the town centre shops, pubs and disagree compared to 7% Asian and Black restaurants as good. • residents). 13% increase in % of residents rating health services as good (from 50% to 63%). • 44% of residents rate the town centre

shops, pubs and restaurants as good or 3.88 Despite these improvements, 54% of very good. residents feel the image of Luton has stayed • 32% of people rate job opportunities as the same over the past 12 months. Only 21% good or very good, and only 20% of people of respondents think its image has improved agree that there are good or very good (down from 34% in the previous wave). More business opportunities. Asian (26%) and Black (29%) residents • Only 44% of respondents feel they have the say that the image of Luton has improved ability to influence decision making at a local compared to White residents (16%). level • There is agreement that the Council is always 3.89 Most of the town centre sits within South improving to make Luton a better place to live ward. Two thirds of South’s population are (68%). dissatisfied with Luton as a place to live. • 1/3 of residents had not visited arts and This increased by 36% since the last wave. cultural facilities in the last six months. It is the most dissatisfied ward in Luton.Only 85% of those aged 60 and over had not 15% of those living in South ward feel the visited an arts and cultural facility in the last image of Luton has improved over the six months. past 12 months. This is the second lowest • Generally, Asian, Black and Mixed population rating across wards. groups are more trusting of the Council and more optimistic than the White residents Luton today surveyed. 57 Overall satisfaction Social cohesion

Figure 3.21: % of respondents who Figure 3.20: % of agree that Luton as a respondents who are town is a place where satisfied with Luton people from different town as a place to live backgrounds get along

Affordable housing Arts & cultural facilities

Figure 3.22: % of Figure 3.23: % of respondents who respondents who think think the town has the town has good or good or very good very good arts and affordable housing cultural facilities

Business opportunities Childcare for young children

Figure 3.24: % Figure 3.25: % of of respondents respondents who who think the town think the town has good or very has good or very good business good childcare for opportunities young children 58 Higher education facilities Job opportunities

Figure 3.26: % of Figure 3.27: % of respondents who respondents who think the town has think the town has good or very good good or very good further and higher job opportunities education facilities

Schools Sports and leisure facilities

Figure 3.28: % of respondents who Figure 3.29: % of think the town respondents who think has good or very the town has good or good schools very good sports and leisure facilities

Image of Luton over past 12 months 3.90 This spread shows 0-10% the spatial patterns of 11-20% responses. The southeast 21-30% of Luton broadly perceive 31-40% Luton less well than the 41-50% northwest, although this 51-60% is not the case for every 61-70% question. Higher education, 71-80% schools and sports and 81-90% leisure are generally viewed 91-100% more positively than other Figure 3.30: % of aspects. Job and business respondents who opportunities are considered agree that the image of not very good across Luton. Luton has improved in the last 12 months Luton today

59