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What I Told the President

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What I Told the President Thu., August 27, 2009 Elul 7, 5769 What I told the president By Akiva Eldar The equation - normalization with the Arabs in return for withdrawing from their territories - was formulated seven years ago and articulated in the peace initiative launched by the Arab League in Beirut in March 2002. After meeting in Ramallah last summer with then-senator Barack Obama, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas related that after hearing the plan's main points his guest said it would be madness on Israel's part to miss such an opportunity. The management of the Council for Peace and Security has not waited for Israel's government to decide to discuss the initiative. The council, which brings together scores of generals, senior police officers, retired top Mossad and Shin Bet officers, former ministry directors general, ambassadors and academics, held a simulation exercise on Tuesday premised on the possibility that the Arab initiative will become a keystone of the anticipated Obama initiative. "The Obama initiative" as presented in the exercise included: - Adopting the principles of the Arab initiative - Renewing the Madrid Peace Conference structure, with five multilateral committees alongside the bilateral tracks; - American-European security guarantees; - An economic aid package; - Sanctions against Iran, including a possible naval blockade. The participants were asked to present "true positions," as each party would present them to the American president in a private meeting, and not propaganda statements. The exercise began with the presentation of the envisioned Obama plan to each of the leaders. (Obama was played by Danny Rothschild, a former head of the research division of Military Intelligence and coordinator of activities in the territories, as well as a member of the Israeli delegation to the Madrid conference in 1991.) "As I made it clear when I entered the White House, I am determined to establish a just and lasting peace in the Middle East," Obama-Rothschild told the participants. "My envoy, George Mitchell, has completed eight rounds of talks in the region, and the time has come to put an American initiative on the table. It is based on the 2002 Arab peace initiative, with a number of modifications. The major modification is that the Arab world will not postpone the normalization of relations with Israel until the end of the process. At this stage, I am not expecting the opening of embassies, but rather a renewal of the multilateral-track discussions between Israel and neighboring Arab states, covering, inter alia, economic cooperation, arms control, water, environmental quality and refugees. We and the Europeans will accompany the process with aid packages and security guarantees. "It is my intention to present the initiative at an international conference I will convene in the near future, this fall. I am aware that some of the participants are very worried by Iran's attempt to arm itself with nuclear weapons. I promise that if the Iranians do not accept the conditions laid down by the UN Security Council, we will toughen the sanctions against them, including the possible introduction of a naval blockade." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (portrayed by Middle East expert Reuven Merhav, formerly a senior member of Israel's intelligence community and Foreign Ministry director general): "We make up 50 percent of the conflict, and any statement by me at this stage would hamper serious negotiations. I would like to remind you that we have adopted the decisions of the previous Israeli governments, although I did not always agree with them. You are slated to meet with eight other figures from the region. I prefer to present my position after I hear your impressions from your discussions with them." Abbas (represented by reserve Col. Shaul Arieli, head of the Interim Agreement Administration in 1995-1997, and the Peace Administration under prime minister Ehud Barak): "Just as you need international legitimacy to use force, for example against North Korea, we need it for our struggle against Hamas. Our 'red line' that cannot be crossed for concessions is international legitimacy for our demand for a Palestinian state encompassing 6,241 square kilometers - the area that Israel occupied in 1967- with its capital in East Jerusalem. "This does not mean dismantling all the settlements," Abbas-Arieli said, "because we agree to a fair arrangement for the swapping of territory. On the refugee issue, too, we have a range of flexibility between monetary compensation and the right of return. We will solve the main problem, the refugees in Lebanon, by absorbing them into our state. "I believe it is possible to reach an agreement, including on the Gaza Strip, in the near future. We will put it to a plebiscite or we will hold elections. It is clear that this will require action against Hamas, for which we need the backing of the West and the international community. In the absence of progress on the conflict, time is on the Iranians' side, and will enable them to establish a base in the Gaza Strip. Only a regional agreement will make it possible to push them out of the conflict. "I understand that evacuating the settlements and redeploying the Israel Defense Forces along the line might well take months or more, but Israel absolutely must not be allowed to exploit this time to establish facts on the ground." Addressing the U.S., "Abbas" said, "You must see to it that Israel freezes the building of the separation fence inside our territory, in addition to the freeze on building in the settlements. As for normalization, I am opposed to rewarding Israel without its contributing to the peace efforts. Like the road map, normalization has to be bilateral. We have kept our commitments on the first phase of the road map, with respect to improving the institutional, civil and security situation. You are constantly talking about the need to see to Israel's security, but we too have security needs. Israel tends to employ force easily, and for the economic aid to be meaningful, the territories and East Jerusalem must be opened to Palestinian traffic. Without your support, Israel would have found it very difficult to have perpetuated the occupation over the years." Syrian President Bashar Assad (played by reserve Brig. Gen. Shlomo Brom, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Directorate): "We continue to support the Arab peace initiative and we voted for it. We are not whining like the Palestinians, but we are insisting on our principles. First of all, you, the Americans, must be present at the negotiations. Second, the negotiations must pick up at the point where they ended in the previous talks. This must include the 'deposit' that [late prime minister Yitzhak] Rabin gave my father. I am convinced that if we sit with the Israelis and with you, within a month or two, we can close the outstanding issues, which represent no more than 10 percent of the entire agreement. "As for the Iranians: You want to impose sanctions on them? That's your problem. We don't want to spoil our relations with them and we will not be a partner to your sanctions. I am not opposed to multilateral conferences, but I ask to reserve the right to decide whether to participate in that track." The Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Fouad Siniora (also represented by Shlomo Brom): "I must emphasize that under no circumstances will the Palestinian refugees remain in Lebanon. The agreement must include compensation for our spending on the Palestinians since 1948 and it would be appropriate for us to receive financial aid to repair the tremendous damage caused us by the war with Israel three years ago. Don't ask us to join sanctions on Iran. You know I am not in love with the Iranians, who support my political rivals, and I would be very glad if they were weakened and reined in, but regretfully I cannot afford to take an active role in this issue." Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak (portrayed by Shimon Shamir, professor emeritus of Middle Eastern studies at Tel Aviv University and a former Israeli ambassador to Egypt and to Jordan): "Egypt is interested in regional stability, because the continuing violence and the absence of agreements are spilling over into Egyptian territory. The United States has a great deal of influence on Israel, and if it does not exert this influence there will be no real progress. Egypt is willing to continue talking with all the parties and to try to soften their positions, just as we are doing between Fatah and Hamas. "We are opposed to interim arrangements, and we want the negotiations to be targeted at a comprehensive agreement based on the Arab peace initiative. You must allot two years at most to the talks, so that it will be clear that there is an end to this process - this will spur the sides to reach agreement. However, I do not believe it will be possible to reach an agreement without international backing and consent. Normalization must be in step with the diplomatic process. I do not believe in gestures before real measures. It is important to note that Egypt has another key principle we will insist upon - nuclear disarmament of all the countries in the region." Jordan's King Abdullah II (represented by reserve Brig. Gen. Israela Oron, former deputy head of the National Security Council): "There is something symbolic in the fact that I am the last in line among the leaders. Let me remind you that we were the first to support the peace initiative. I feel that we are being slighted because you assume that you have us in your pocket.
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